植田和男还表示，意识到食品价格上涨对家庭造成了影响。食品通胀可能是暂时的供应冲击，但可能影 响基础通胀。食品价格上涨和中东冲突如果持续下去，可能会对趋势通胀产生二次影响，将密切关注中 东局势的动向。 日本央行面临着在持续的通胀压力和经济增长放缓之间取得平衡的挑战。作为日本家庭主食的大米价格 在过去一年里翻了一番，突显出通胀压力的严重性。自2022年4月以来，核心通胀率一直未缓和，这给 加息带来了越来越大的压力。然而，经济增长明显恶化，第一季度GDP年化收缩0.2%。且由于通胀上 升，实际工资同比下降1.8%，这可能抑制消费者支出，进一步制约经济增长。 盛宝银行表示，由于市场已经为今年余下时间计入了略高于10个基点的日本央行加息预期，日本央行的 此次会议没有引发太大波澜。在尚不清楚美日贸易协议具体内容的情况下，日本央行也难以做出明确预 测，日本央行可能会提高对通胀的担忧。 日本央行行长植田和男在政策会议后的新闻发布会上表示，日本的通胀预期仍未稳定在2%的目标水 平。 随着贸易政策效应进一步显现，必须关注贸易政策对金融市场、外汇市场、日本经济和物价的影响。穆 迪分析经济学家Stefan Angrick说，美国提高 ...

Group 1 - The expectation of rising oil prices is leading to a cautious stance from Federal Reserve policymakers regarding further interest rate cuts, resulting in a decline in U.S. Treasury prices [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have increased by 2 to 6 basis points across various maturities, with the 2-year Treasury yield rising to approximately 3.97% as traders reduce bets on Fed easing [1] - The bond market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting, with most expecting rates to remain unchanged, but the market is focused on the quarterly economic and interest rate forecast report [1] Group 2 - The recent conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a decline in U.S. Treasury prices, with historical data suggesting that such sell-off pressures may have lasting effects [2] - Initial spikes in oil prices due to the conflict have receded, with WTI crude oil prices dropping by as much as 4.9% before settling at a 2.3% decline [2] - Concerns over market volatility are rising, with implications for both risk assets and interest rate assets as implied volatility increases [2] Group 3 - The recent 30-year U.S. Treasury auction showed stronger-than-expected demand, while the 20-year auction was relatively lackluster, with a yield of 4.942% aligning with expectations [3] - The pressure on the U.S. Treasury yield curve may increase due to geopolitical uncertainties, prompting investors to consider higher military spending [3] - The recent auction alleviated some risks associated with holding long-term assets, but it remains uncertain whether this will lead to significant market movements ahead of the Fed's policy announcement [3]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in German government bond yields indicates a cooling of inflation concerns among investors following fluctuations in international oil prices amid recent conflicts between Israel and Iran [1] Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The yield on 10-year German government bonds fell by 0.8 basis points to 2.527%, trading within a range of 2.589% to 2.516% during the day [1] - The 2-year German bond yield decreased by 1.5 basis points to 1.841%, with a trading range of 1.890% to 1.837% [1] - The 30-year German bond yield saw a minor decline of 0.1 basis points, settling at 2.986% [1] Group 2: Yield Spread Analysis - The yield spread between 2-year and 10-year German bonds increased by 0.631 basis points, reaching +68.172 basis points [1]

欧洲央行管委马赫鲁夫：经济增长面临下行风险，通胀风险则呈现出混合态势；未来走势将高度取决于 关税政策的最终安排，尤其是对报复措施的反应。 ...

周五亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡微涨，现交投于3360美元/盎司附近。周四金价冲高后回落，盘中一度突破3400美元关口至3403.28美元/盎司（近四周新高）， 但受中美领导人通话释放贸易缓和信号影响，最终收跌0.6%至3352.65美元/盎司。尽管短期回调，黄金年内仍累计上涨约28%，凸显其在全球不确定性中的 避险价值。 美国经济数据释放矛盾信号，非农报告成关键变量 当前市场聚焦两大经济数据： 1. 初请失业金数据引发经济放缓担忧 美国劳工部数据显示，上周初请失业金人数增至24.7万人（预期23.5万人），连续第二周上升，暗示劳动力市场可能降温。 第一季度工人生产率下降、劳动力成本上升，叠加特朗普关税政策推高企业成本，为黄金提供潜在支撑（经济不确定性通常利多避险资产）。 2. 非农就业报告即将揭晓 6月6日将公布5月非农数据，市场预计新增就业13万人（低于4月的17.7万人），失业率或稳定在4.2%。 非农对黄金的影响：若数据弱于预期，可能强化美联储降息预期，利多金价；反之则可能打压黄金。低利率环境下，非孳息资产黄金往往表现强势。 美联储政策博弈：降息呼声VS通胀风险 1. 特朗普施压降息，美联储内部态度分化 5 ...

美联储理事库格勒：现在看到通胀风险和就业风险处于下行之路上。 ...

美联储理事Kugler：现在看到通胀风险和就业风险处于下行之路上。 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is cautious about rising food prices potentially increasing the underlying inflation rate, which is close to its 2% target [1][2] - BOJ Governor Ueda indicated that inflation expectations are between 1.5% and 2%, the highest in 30 years, prompting the bank to maintain low interest rates despite rising food prices, particularly a 90% surge in rice prices [2] - Ueda mentioned that the impact of food price inflation is expected to diminish, but the proximity of underlying inflation to the 2% target necessitates careful monitoring of food price inflation's effects [2] Group 2 - The BOJ is closely monitoring economic risks from U.S. tariff increases and domestic inflation pressures to determine when to resume interest rate hikes [2] - Despite lowering forecasts due to trade policy uncertainties, the BOJ expects the core inflation rate to gradually approach the 2% target in the latter half of the forecast period (FY2027) [2] - Ueda stated that if new data increases confidence in the baseline scenario, the BOJ will adjust the degree of monetary easing through interest rate hikes as necessary [2] Group 3 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently trading around 143.90, down 0.15% from the previous close of 144.12, indicating limited upward momentum in the daily technical indicators [1][2] - If the USD/JPY fails to break above 145.00 and sustain upward movement, there is a risk of a pullback, especially if it drops below the support range of 144.00–143.65, potentially testing 143.00 or even the monthly low of 142.10 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Downward - driven commodities**: Coking coal, glass, methanol [1] - **Equity index**: Sideways [2] - **Treasury bonds**: Range - bound [2] - **Gold and silver**: Sideways to weak [2][4] - **Non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, nickel)**: Range - bound [4] - **Lithium carbonate**: Sideways to weak [4][6] - **Silicon energy**: Downward [6] - **Steel and ore (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore)**: Sideways to weak [6] - **Coking coal and coke**: Bearish [8] - **Soda ash and glass**: Bearish [8] - **Crude oil**: Sideways to weak [8] - **Methanol**: Downward [8][10] - **Polyolefins**: Downward [10] - **Cotton**: Sideways [10] - **Rubber**: Sideways to weak [10] 2. Core Views - **Commodity futures**: Coking coal, glass, and methanol have clear downward drivers. Hold previous short positions in JM2509 for coking coal, FG509 for glass, and MA509 for methanol due to supply - demand imbalances [1] - **Equity index**: The A - share market continues to trade in a narrow range with low volume. While the downside risk is controllable due to policy support, the short - term upward momentum is insufficient [2] - **Treasury bonds**: The bond market is under pressure. Although the long - term yield trend is downward, the current directional drivers are limited, and the odds are not favorable [2] - **Precious metals**: Gold prices are affected by short - term factors and lack upward momentum. It is recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. Silver follows gold, and selling out - of - the money put options is also advisable [4] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Uncertainties in the macro environment and demand expectations affect prices. Copper, aluminum, and nickel are expected to trade in ranges, with supply - demand dynamics and policy factors influencing their trends [4] - **Lithium carbonate**: Supply reduction is limited, and demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices [4][6] - **Silicon energy**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak, putting pressure on silicon prices [6] - **Steel and ore**: Traditional demand seasons are ending, and supply pressure may increase. Cost reduction risks also exist, leading to a bearish outlook for steel and ore prices [6] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak, resulting in downward price trends [8] - **Soda ash and glass**: Soda ash production is likely to increase, and demand is lackluster. Glass demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline [8] - **Crude oil**: With the possibility of production increases, the medium - to - long - term oil price center is expected to shift downward [8] - **Methanol**: Supply is growing, and demand is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation and downward price pressure [8][10] - **Polyolefins**: Futures prices have reached new lows, and with lower costs and weaker demand, short positions should be held [10] - **Cotton**: Weather and demand factors need to be monitored. The market is expected to trade in a range [10] - **Rubber**: Cost support is weakening, and supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, leading to a downward price trend [10] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Futures - **Coking coal**: Supply is in continuous surplus, and previous short positions in JM2509 should be held [1] - **Glass**: Pessimistic demand expectations, and previous short positions in FG509 should be held [1] - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and previous short positions in MA509 should be held [1] 3.2 Equity Index - The A - share market is in a narrow - range, low - volume sideways trend. The red - chip defensive and technology - growth styles rotate rapidly, and funds are cautious. The downside risk is controllable, but the short - term upward momentum is insufficient [2] 3.3 Treasury Bonds - The bond market is in a weak sideways pattern. Although the central bank maintains loose liquidity, market concerns about redemptions are rising, and the bond market is under pressure [2] 3.4 Precious Metals - Gold prices are affected by short - term factors such as tariffs and geopolitics. It is recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the money put options. Silver follows gold, and selling out - of - the money put options is also advisable [2][4] 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Uncertainties in the macro environment and demand expectations affect prices. The supply of ore is tight, but the demand is cautious, and the market is expected to trade in a range [4] - **Aluminum and alumina**: The macro environment is uncertain. Alumina supply has short - and long - term differences, and prices may fluctuate. Aluminum is expected to trade sideways [4] - **Nickel**: The market is in an oversupply situation. Although the previous short - call option strategy can be continued, new short positions should be avoided due to policy uncertainties [4] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate - Supply reduction is limited, and demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices [4][6] 3.7 Silicon Energy - Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak, putting pressure on silicon prices. Attention should be paid to the furnace - starting situation in the southwest during the wet season [6] 3.8 Steel and Ore - **Rebar**: The traditional demand season is ending, and supply pressure may increase. Cost reduction risks also exist. It is recommended to hold short - call options or short the 10 - contract on rebounds [6] - **Hot - rolled coil**: External and internal demand is weak, and cost reduction risks exist. Short positions in the 10 - contract should be held [6] - **Iron ore**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination and short the 01 - contract [6] 3.9 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking coal**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak, resulting in inventory accumulation and downward price trends [8] - **Coke**: Terminal demand is in the off - season, and steel prices are falling, leading to a decline in production willingness and downward price trends [8] 3.10 Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda ash**: Production is likely to increase, and demand is lackluster. Short positions in the 09 - contract should be held, and new short positions can be taken on rebounds [8] - **Glass**: Demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline. Short positions in the FG509 contract should be held, and the buy - glass 01 - sell - soda ash 01 arbitrage can be continued [8] 3.11 Crude Oil - With the possibility of production increases, the medium - to - long - term oil price center is expected to shift downward [8] 3.12 Methanol - Supply is growing, and demand is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation and downward price pressure [8][10] 3.13 Polyolefins - Futures prices have reached new lows, and with lower costs and weaker demand, short positions should be held [10] 3.14 Cotton - Weather and demand factors need to be monitored. The market is expected to trade in a range [10] 3.15 Rubber - Cost support is weakening, and supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, leading to a downward price trend. The short - call option strategy can be adjusted and continued [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is adopting a cautious approach to interest rate cuts due to high uncertainty and inflation risks, indicating potential challenges ahead [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes highlight a consensus on the risks of inflation, suggesting that rate cuts may be difficult [1] - The expectation for rate cuts has been pushed back to September or December due to concerns over consumer inflation driven by tariffs [1] Group 2: Global Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 basis points in April, with expectations for further cuts later in the year [1] - The Bank of England reduced its key rate to 4.25% in May, with market expectations for only one more cut by the end of the year [1] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise rates around July, following a recent increase to 0.5% [1] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The 5-year U.S. Treasury auction showed strong overseas demand, reaching a historical high [1] - The upcoming maturity of U.S. Treasury bonds, totaling $1.2 trillion and $1.46 trillion in June and July respectively, may lead to liquidity shocks [1] - Japan's 40-year bond auction saw a bidding ratio at its lowest since July 2024, although results were better than the previous week [1] Group 4: Precious Metals Investment Outlook - Due to the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks, precious metal prices may experience fluctuations, with potential for recovery after initial declines [1] - Investors are advised to consider long positions during market pullbacks, paying attention to support and resistance levels for various commodities [1]