Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that a majority of officials believe tariffs may lead to persistent inflation risks [1] Group 1 - Most Federal Reserve officials express concerns that tariffs could contribute to ongoing inflationary pressures [1] - The discussion highlights the potential long-term impact of trade policies on the economy [1] - Officials are closely monitoring inflation trends and the effects of tariffs on consumer prices [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the precious metals and non - ferrous metals industry dated July 9, 2025 [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Core View - Trump administration extended the tariff suspension period to August 1 but added tariffs on multiple countries. The gold - buying trend of global central banks remains unchanged, and China has increased its gold reserves for 8 consecutive months. Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the second half of the year [3] Data Summary - SHFE gold and silver futures and COMEX gold price charts are presented, showing price trends from 2024 - 2025 [4] - Graphs of the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates, and between gold and the US dollar index are provided [8][9] - Charts of gold and silver long - term fund holdings and inventories are shown [12][13][14] Group 3: Copper Core View - Trump's new tariff policy may exacerbate US inflation risks and put pressure on copper prices. The market is adjusting its demand expectations, and the strengthening US dollar index suppresses the non - ferrous metals sector [15] Data Summary - Copper futures prices:沪铜主力 at 78400 yuan/ton, down 1.53%;伦铜3M at 9665 dollars/ton, down 1.22% [16] - Copper spot prices: Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper at 79190 yuan/ton, down 0.76% [20] - Copper import profit and loss, concentrate TC, and scrap - refined copper price difference data are provided [24][27] - Copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory data show changes [28][29] Group 4: Aluminum Core View - Aluminum supply is close to the industry ceiling, demand is in the off - season, and low inventory supports prices in the short term. However, long - term prospects are bearish. Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, but short - term prices may be strong due to news and squeeze - out risks. Cast aluminum alloy is restricted by high costs and weak demand [31][32] Data Summary - Aluminum and alumina futures prices:沪铝主力 at 20515 yuan/ton, down 0.05%;氧化铝主力 at 3130 yuan/ton, up 0.64% [33][35] - Aluminum and alumina price differences and basis data are presented [39][44][46] - Aluminum and alumina inventory data show changes [53] Group 5: Zinc Core View - Zinc supply is gradually becoming looser, but inventory accumulation is slow and remains at a low level. Demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [60] Data Summary - Zinc futures prices:沪锌主力 at 22120 yuan/ton, up 0.32% [61] - Zinc spot prices: SMM 0 zinc average price at 22040 yuan/ton, down 1.03% [66] - Zinc inventory data show changes, with沪锌仓单 increasing and伦锌库存 decreasing [69] Group 6: Nickel Core View - Nickel ore prices are relatively stable, nickel iron prices are falling, stainless steel production cuts are less than expected, and anti - dumping taxes affect the market. Sulfuric acid nickel maintains a production - to - order model. The overall fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to macro trends [73] Data Summary - Nickel futures prices:沪镍主连 at 119140 yuan/ton, down 1% [74] - Nickel - related price and inventory data, including nickel ore, nickel pig iron, and stainless steel, are presented [80][82][89] Group 7: Tin Core View - Trump's new tariff policy may exacerbate US inflation risks. Tin's supply - demand fundamentals are weak, putting pressure on tin prices [91] Data Summary - Tin futures prices:沪锡主力 at 262890 yuan/ton, down 0.98% [92] - Tin spot prices and inventory data are provided [96][99] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Core View - The long - term supply of lithium carbonate exceeds demand, and the over - supply pressure persists [105] Data Summary - Lithium carbonate futures prices:碳酸锂期货主力 at 64400 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan from the previous day [106] - Lithium spot prices, including lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and lithium carbonate, show changes [111] - Lithium carbonate inventory data show changes [114] Group 9: Silicon Core View - There is significant capital interference in the silicon industry, and the core contradiction is "strong expectation, weak reality." The rise in polysilicon prices drives industrial silicon prices, but the market deviates from fundamentals [116] Data Summary - Industrial silicon spot prices:华东553 at 8750 yuan/ton, unchanged [117] - Industrial silicon futures prices:工业硅主力 at 8140 yuan/ton, down 0.91% [119] - Polysilicon, silicon wafer, and other product prices and production, inventory data are presented [128][134][140]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has decided to maintain interest rates despite discussions among some members about the potential benefits of further monetary policy easing in July to support economic recovery, citing increased uncertainty and recent inflation risks [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - Some members of the RBNZ emphasized that implementing further monetary policy easing in July could provide a safeguard to ensure the recovery of economic activity [1] Economic Conditions - The decision to maintain interest rates is influenced by rising uncertainty and recent inflation risks, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amidst fluctuating economic conditions [1]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand advocates for maintaining the official cash rate unchanged, highlighting a high level of uncertainty [1] - Recent inflation risks have been noted, suggesting that waiting until August may provide benefits [1]

Core Viewpoint - The former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Nakaso Hiroshi, emphasizes the need for the Bank of Japan to be cautious about inflation risks and suggests that there is still room for further interest rate hikes [1] Group 1: Inflation Risks - Nakaso highlights strong wage growth, the ability of companies to pass on costs, and rising inflation expectations as indicators that price pressures in Japan may be greater than policymakers anticipate [1] - He disagrees with the Bank of Japan officials' assessment that the risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the downside, asserting that there are upward risks to inflation, particularly due to labor shortages potentially leading to significant wage increases next year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the misconceptions surrounding government bond funds, emphasizing that they are not risk-free despite being perceived as safe assets due to government backing [1][3]. Group 1: Understanding Government Bond Funds - Government bond funds are specifically designed to invest in government bonds, which are backed by the credit of the state, theoretically presenting a low risk of default [1]. - In 2022, China's government bond issuance exceeded 7 trillion yuan, with a significant portion entering the market through funds, highlighting their role as a stabilizing asset in investment portfolios [1]. Group 2: Risks Associated with Government Bond Funds - **Interest Rate Risk**: The relationship between bond prices and interest rates is crucial; when market interest rates rise, existing bonds lose value, as seen in the 12% average decline of U.S. government bond funds in 2022 due to consecutive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [3][5]. - **Liquidity Risk**: Government bond funds can be open-ended or closed-ended. Open-ended funds may face forced selling during large redemptions, impacting remaining investors, while closed-ended funds may trade at a discount to net asset value, posing additional risks [6]. - **Inflation Risk**: If a government bond fund yields 3% but inflation is at 4%, the real purchasing power decreases, which can lead to significant losses over long-term investments [7][9]. Group 3: Misconceptions and Investment Strategy - The notion of "zero risk" is misleading; while government bond funds are safer than other investment vehicles, they still carry unique risks that differ from stocks or P2P lending [9]. - Investors should be cautious of funds that use leverage or invest in lower-rated corporate bonds to enhance returns, as these strategies can lead to substantial losses during market downturns [9].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) faces risks of inflation remaining below the 2% target, prompting a need for continued supportive monetary policy [1][2] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The ECB has lowered interest rates by 200 basis points to a neutral level of 2% since June of the previous year, but the economic growth outlook remains bleak [2] - The ECB predicts inflation will stay below the target for 18 months starting from Q3 2025, with a return to the 2% target not expected until early 2027 [2] Group 2: Currency Impact - The euro has appreciated against the dollar, trading at 1.1741, with a 0.28% increase, which may further suppress inflation and pressure economic growth [1][2] - The euro is currently in an overbought state but maintains a long-term bullish trend, with the weekly chart showing higher highs and higher lows [2] Group 3: Risks and Support - Downside risks include cheap imports from China, low energy prices, lack of tariff retaliation, a strong euro, and slowing wage growth, leading to limited upside risks overall [2] - The ECB's stance is supported by Germany's significant fiscal expansion plans, which are expected to provide a substantial boost to the economy [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report Core Views - Trump plans to send new tariff rate notices (10% - 70%) to countries without trade agreements from August 1st, likely a weaker "aftershock" compared to April [6] - In the long - term bullish pattern of stock index futures, pay attention to internal and external marginal drivers. The market may rise in a slightly volatile way, and its continuation depends on internal and external factors [7][8] - Short - term butadiene rubber is weak, with limited downward space, and the medium - term fundamentals are under increasing pressure [9] - In the short term, the contradiction in the live pig market is not obvious, but the sentiment in the far - end market is strengthening [11] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Gold and Silver - Gold: Non - farm payrolls performed better than expected. Gold has a trend strength of - 1 [19][23] - Silver: Continues to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [19][23] 2. Copper - Global copper inventories are increasing, and the price is oscillating. The trend strength is 0 [25][27] 3. Zinc - Zinc prices are moving sideways. The trend strength is 0 [28] 4. Lead - Supported by the expectation of short - term consumption peak season. The trend strength is 1 [30][31] 5. Tin - Driven by the macro - environment, tin prices are rising. The trend strength is 0 [33][36] 6. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The upward elasticity of nickel prices is limited, and prices are under pressure at low levels. Stainless steel inventories are slightly digested, and steel prices are recovering with limited elasticity. The trend strength of both is 0 [37][38][43] 7. Carbonate Lithium - Lithium prices are under pressure at the upper level. The trend strength is - 1 [44][47] 8. Polysilicon - Pay attention to policy changes. The trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1 [48][50] 9. Iron Ore - Expectations are fluctuating, and prices are in wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is - 1 [51] 10. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Both are in wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is 0 [53][54][56] 11. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Both are in wide - range oscillations. The trend strength of both is - 1 [57][60] 12. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke's first - round price increase is brewing, and both are in wide - range oscillations. The trend strength of both is 0 [62][64] 13. Steam Coal - Daily consumption is recovering, and prices are stabilizing with oscillations. The trend strength is 0 [66][69] 14. Logs - The main contract is switching, and prices are in wide - range oscillations [70]

当投资者普遍押注关税不会升级时，摩根士丹利却在思考一个关键问题：如果7月9日的结果与预期不 符，市场将面临怎样的冲击？ 央视新闻指出，7月9日（本周三）是美国与各国谈判贸易协议的截止日期。据追风交易台消息，摩根士 丹利全球固定收益和主题研究主管Michael Zezas发布研报警示，尽管市场普遍预期美国关税政策不会进 一步升级，但7月9日关税暂停期到期这一关键节点仍存在多种可能性，投资者需要为不同情形做好准 备。 该行的基本预期是美国有效关税水平仅会适度上升，但会伴随一些新的波动，并分析了三种可能的情 形。 基本情形：延期策略 摩根士丹利认为最可能的情况是，白宫将以双边谈判取得了"进展"为由，延长对大多数主要贸易伙伴 的"对等关税"暂停期，同时宣布与某些贸易伙伴(包括越南)达成高层协议，并可能在未来某个日期对其 他国家提高关税税率。 "对等关税"暂停期结束，8月1日又要开始支付新关税？ 随着截止日期的临近，据环球时报5日报道，美国总统特朗普表示，美政府7月4日起将向尚未达成贸易 协议的国家发出新关税税率的通知，税率区间为10%至70%，并计划从8月1日起正式实施。这一税率上 限（70%）远高于其4月份宣布的5 ...

Group 1: Fiscal Impact - The "Big and Beautiful" bill is expected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by $4.1 trillion over the next ten years, raising the deficit rate by 3-4 percentage points compared to 2010-2019 levels[2] - The average deficit rate over the next decade is projected to reach 6.4%, potentially increasing to 6.7% if certain tax cuts are extended beyond 2028[2][3] - The bill's implementation may lead to a fiscal deficit of approximately 7% in 2026, with short-term growth support for Q4 2025 and 2026[1][3] Group 2: Economic Growth and Inflation - The bill is anticipated to provide short-term economic growth support, but its long-term effectiveness is expected to diminish, potentially exacerbating inflation[3][4] - Independent institutions estimate that the bill will only contribute an additional 0.4% to U.S. GDP over the next decade, significantly lower than the White House's estimate of 2.4%-2.7%[3] Group 3: Social and Political Consequences - The bill may worsen income and welfare distribution in the U.S., intensifying political polarization, as high-income individuals and corporations benefit more from tax cuts[5] - The average annual tax cut for the wealthiest families is projected to be $12,000, while the poorest families may face a net loss of $1,600 annually[5] Group 4: Debt Sustainability Concerns - The bill could further undermine U.S. debt sustainability, with total government debt expected to rise from 124% of GDP[4] - The vision of reducing the deficit post-2029 is considered overly optimistic, with potential increases in interest costs and lower-than-expected GDP growth[4]