Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Since June, gold prices have shown a pattern of rising and then retreating, with a notable increase following President Trump's announcement to raise steel and aluminum tariffs, but subsequently declining [1] - From late April, gold prices have consistently retreated from a high of $3400 per ounce to below $3200 per ounce, while domestic gold prices fell from 800 yuan per gram to below 750 yuan per gram, indicating significant profit-taking by long positions [1][2] - The high retreat in gold prices is attributed to both substantial gains in April and a diminishing impact of U.S. tariff policies, leading to a higher market risk appetite [1] Group 2: Global Equity Market Recovery - Following the uncertainty post-Trump's inauguration, global equity markets experienced a downturn, while gold prices surged; however, since late April, gold prices have retreated as global equity markets began to recover [2] - The easing of expectations regarding U.S. tariff policies, particularly after the May 12 joint statement from the U.S., China, and Japan, contributed to the decline in gold prices back to pre-tariff levels [2] - Macro indicators show signs of economic recovery, with improvements in manufacturing PMIs in China and the Eurozone, suggesting a potential upward trend in global markets [2] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio has significantly declined in June, primarily due to an increase in silver prices, indicating a decrease in market risk aversion [3] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to a recovery in industrial demand, with notable increases in copper and crude oil prices as well [3] - Historically, significant increases in silver prices often occur in the latter stages of a gold price rally, typically following a crisis and coinciding with a recovery in industrial demand [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - In the long term, the trend for gold remains upward despite current pressures, influenced by trends of de-dollarization and weak performance of the U.S. dollar and bonds [4] - Short-term strategies should focus on market rhythm, as easing U.S. tariff impacts may lead to a continued decline in risk aversion, putting pressure on gold prices [4] - Silver, benefiting from its industrial applications, is expected to continue its upward trajectory in a recovering economy, especially as it breaks out of a year-long trading range [4]

市场反应：美元指数周三跌0.4%，周四亚市早盘跌至98.42（近一周新低）；美债收益率下跌，CMEFedWatch工具显示美联储9月降息概率升至70%。 1、美国通胀数据疲软，降息预期升温 数据表现：5月CPI环比涨0.1%（预期0.2%），同比涨2.4%；核心CPI环比涨0.1%，同比涨2.8%，均低于预期。 黄金周三（6月11日）早盘开始震荡上涨，欧盘初上涨3348/3349附近后受阻下跌，在跌至3326附近后再次转涨。美盘受到CPI数据影响，黄金急涨至3361附 近后受阻下跌，凌晨最低下跌至3319附近。在美伊核谈判局面急转直下，美国下令减少驻伊拉克使团规模消息出来后，黄金大涨，收盘前上涨至3355/3356 附近，日线收出一根阳线。 一、基本面 潜在矛盾：关税政策可能推高未来通胀（如大型家电价格涨4.3%、玩具涨1.3%），但当前服务业通胀温和暂时抑制上行压力。 再看四小时级别，黄金在周三尾盘大涨，今日早盘延续了这一涨势。不过，在尚未突破上周高点3403/3404之前，整体结构思路不变，逢高寻找做空机会， 以观察行情是否会出现调整。 在短线阻力位方面，上方可先关注3375、3380附近。其中，3375 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent shift in gold market sentiment from bearish to bullish due to rising geopolitical risk aversion [1] - It highlights the importance of traders' strategies in response to the changing market conditions ahead of data releases [1] - The mention of a live session by TTPS trading expert indicates a focus on real-time analysis and guidance for traders [1]

本周三（6月11日）欧市盘中，COMEX黄金价格小幅上涨，截至目前报3356.60美元/盎司，涨幅 0.35%，今日开盘于3344.30美元/盎司，最高上探3364.80美元/盎司，最低触及3335.40美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 美国总统特朗普所实施的关税暂时被联邦上诉法院允许维持生效，贸易不确定性在短期内有所缓解。 "法院的暂缓裁定提升了市场对贸易局势的短期信心，激励投资者转向风险资产，削弱了避险货币日元 的需求。" 日元在全球贸易乐观情绪主导的市场环境中，连续第二日维持疲软走势。截至亚洲交易时段，美元/日 元交投在145.00附近，接近前一交易日触及的两周低点。 随着亚洲大国和美国贸易关系取得积极进展，市场风险偏好持续改善，削弱了日元作为避险货币的吸引 力。 与此同时，亚洲大国和美国双方在伦敦达成初步贸易框架。美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克指出，该框 架是缓解全球贸易紧张的第一步。 避险情绪的缓解使美元短线获得部分买盘支撑，帮助美元/日元维持涨势。不过，日本国内经济数据改 善，以及通胀扩散迹象不断增强，令市场对日本央行年内再次加息的预期逐步升温，部分对冲了日元持 续贬值的压力。 【COMEX黄金行情解析】 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-6-11 中美经贸磋商继续，黄金持稳 中美经贸磋商机制首次会议将继续进行，市场静待美国CPI数据， 黄金持稳。 重点资讯： 1）美国商务部长卢特尼克(Howard Lutnick)告诉记者，正在伦敦举 行的美中贸易会谈进展良好，预计将持续至周二全天。 2）加州官员周一指责美国总统特朗普动用国民警卫队加剧了洛杉矶 本已紧张的局势，而白宫则认为，此次暴力示威活动证明有必要加大 驱逐非法移民的力度。 持续的美中贸易谈判是当前市场关注的绝对焦点，其结果将极大影响 美元走势和投资者避险情绪，进而左右金价。同时，中国最新公布的 5月对美出口数据创疫情以来最大跌幅（-35%），凸显了贸易环境的 变化。市场密切关注谈判进展是否能真正缓解紧张关系并促进全球经 济增长，且等待周三美国CPI通胀数据对未来利率路径的指引。 展望：周度COMEX黄金关注【3200,3450】，周度COMEX白银关注【32, 35】。 风险提示：中美贸易谈判，特朗普政策超预期 宏观研究团队 研究员： 朱善颖 从业资格号 F03138401 投资咨询号 Z002142 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility due to trade negotiations, geopolitical situations, and macroeconomic policies, with gold and silver prices showing divergent trends [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices are facing resistance at previous highs, while silver prices have reached a 13-year high, driven by industrial demand and geopolitical factors [1]. - The recent U.S. economic indicators, including a contraction in manufacturing and services PMI, alongside slowing non-farm employment data, have heightened concerns about inflation and recession [1][2]. - The European Central Bank's monetary easing has led to a recovery in manufacturing, boosting industrial demand for metals [1]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - The market is currently focused on three main aspects: U.S. government trade conflict stance, Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, and geopolitical tensions, all of which influence gold prices [2]. - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, although the pace of accumulation has slowed [2]. Group 3: Price Predictions and Strategies - The gold-silver ratio has increased due to rising gold prices, leading to a shift in investment towards silver, which is expected to see strong upward momentum due to industrial demand [3]. - Predictions indicate that silver industrial demand could reach a historical high of 680.5 million ounces in 2024, with stable demand expected in 2025 [3]. - Analysts suggest maintaining a long-term trading strategy for precious metals, advising investors to buy on price dips and utilize derivatives for risk hedging [3][4].

避险情绪升温，黄金止跌反弹，能否突破震荡牢笼？金十研究员高阳正在直播分析，点击进入直播间 相关链接 ...

黄金ETF最新持仓数据： 日期 净持仓量（盎司） 净持仓量（吨） 总价值（美元） 2025-06-09 30100348.33 936.22 99868864976.74 2025-06-06 30035842.58 934.21 100276779331.94 （注：黄金ETF持仓增加，表明买盘增加，市场看涨黄金的情绪升温，利多黄金；黄金ETF持仓减少， 表明卖盘增加，市场看跌黄金的情绪升温，利空黄金。） 【要闻回顾】 美国债券市场的动态也为金价走势提供了重要线索。周一10年期美国国债收益率下跌3.6个基点至 4.474%，30年期国债收益率下跌1.6个基点至4.947%。与此同时，10年期通胀保值债券(TIPS)的损益平 衡收益率报2.312%，表明市场预期未来十年平均年通胀率为2.3%。债券收益率的小幅回落反映了投资 者对通胀和经济增长的谨慎态度，而对国债的"谨慎需求"也表明市场并未完全摆脱避险情绪。 本周美国财政部计划标售三年期、10年期和30年期国债，标售结果可能进一步影响市场对通胀和利率的 预期。如果标售需求强劲，可能进一步压低债券收益率，从而间接支撑金价。 国际黄金周一（6月9日）日K收涨，美市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the precious metals market, particularly gold, is influenced by multiple factors including a weakening dollar, changing risk sentiment, and developments in US-China trade negotiations [1] Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Gold Prices - The weakening of the dollar index has created favorable conditions for a rebound in gold prices, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies [3] - Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has further exacerbated the dollar's weakness, leading investors to reassess the value of dollar-denominated assets and shift some funds towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Concerns about global economic growth, driven by trade tensions and geopolitical issues, have put additional pressure on the dollar, supporting the rise in gold prices [3] Group 2: Risk Sentiment and Gold Demand - The escalation of geopolitical risks has increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold being favored in the current environment due to ongoing conflicts such as the Ukraine-Russia situation [4] - Developments in US-China trade relations significantly impact risk sentiment; easing tensions can lead to a shift towards riskier assets, while heightened trade friction tends to boost gold prices due to increased safe-haven demand [4] - Central banks around the world are increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a structural change in demand for safe-haven assets, which provides a stable foundation for the gold market and supports long-term price stability [4]

美国5月通胀预期全面下降，金价企稳反弹 2. 地缘方面，根据新华社报道，伊朗最高国家安全委员会9日发表声明说，若伊朗遭以色列袭击，以色 列的秘密核设施将成为伊朗的打击目标。据美国媒体日前报道，有情报表明以色列正准备袭击伊朗核设 施。由此可见，中东地区的地缘冲突一触即发，市场避险情绪仍较浓，短期金价或维持震荡偏强运行， 关注周三美CPI数据指引。 金十期货特约光大期货点评：6月9日，COMEX黄金止跌企稳，小幅探涨，报收3346.7美元/盎司，涨幅 0.00%。国内SHFE金夜盘低开高走，报收776.66元/克，涨幅0.18%。 1. 当地时间6月9日下午，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行。受到谈判利好预期、关税调低预 期影响，周一美国纽约联储发布的5月最新调查结果显示，5月美国消费者未来通胀预期全面下降，为 2024年来首次，其中一年期通胀预期降幅最大，从4月的3.6%降至3.2%，三年期通胀预期从3.2%降至 3%。五年期通胀预期从2.7%降至2.6%。通胀预期虽仍高于美联储2%目标，但已明显回落。市场预期在 本周三公布的美国5月CPI将跟随回落，降息预期升温，美债收益率普遍跌超3个基点，略微回吐非农 ...