世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 入 期 市 市 服 热线 官 方 网 站 雷 有 fat 1年 150 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 馆 Ma ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/7/2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX更金 | COMEX日银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2025/7/1 | 3331.05 | ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年7月2日 研究所晨会观点精萃 贾利军 宏观金融：贸易协议面临不确定性，避险情绪有所升温 【宏观】 海外方面，鲍威尔重申美联储在降息前需等待更多数据，未排除 7 月行 动可能性，表态略微偏鸽，但数据显示劳动力市场需求的增长好于预期，美元指 数下跌后反弹；此外，虽然美国总统称美国或与印度达成贸易协议，但威胁对日 本征收更高关税，市场权衡了美国贸易协议的不确定性和美国税收法案的情况， 全球风险偏好有所降温。国内方面，中国 6 月份制造业 PMI 为 49.7%，比上月上 升 0.2 个百分点，经济增长有所加快；政策方面，国内消费政策刺激加强，短期 有助于提振国内风险偏好；且短期国外市场回暖以及人民币汇率升值，国内市场 情绪回暖，国内风险有所升温。资产上：股指短期震荡反弹，短期谨慎做多。国 债短期高位震荡，谨慎观望。商品板块来看，黑色短期低位震荡反弹，短期谨慎 做多；有色短期震荡偏强，短期谨慎做多；能化短期震荡，谨慎观望；贵金属短 期高位震荡，谨慎做多。 冯冰 【股指】 在中船系、生物医药以及半导体等板块的支撑下，国 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/07/02 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 黄金价格由跌转涨，可以继续做多了吗？ 2025 年 7 月 1 日黄金价格的上涨，是多种因素共同作用的结果。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从市场环境来看，美元指数受美联储降息预期及贸易政策不确定性影响，大幅下跌，跌至 2022 年 2 月以来的低点，这使得以美元计价的黄金价格得到有力支撑。同时，10 年期美债收益率下滑，持有 黄金的机会成本降低，也促使投资者纷纷涌入黄金市场。 地缘政治方面，中东局势紧张，美以与伊朗的冲突不断，俄乌战场也持续升级，这些不确定性加剧了 市场的避险情绪，黄金作为传统避险资产，自然受到资金的追捧。 不过，虽然黄金价格出现了上涨，但也面临一些挑战。本周四将公布美国 6 月非农数据，若数据表现 强劲，可能会强化市场对美联储货币政策的鹰派预期，进而压制金价。所以，在当前情况下，轻仓尝 试多。 GOL ...

7月1日国内黄金市场动态：品牌金店首饰金价重新上涨，整体价格又要超过千元了。具体来看，周生生 黄金在今日大涨15元/克，报价1000元/克，暂为最高价金店。上海中国黄金今日不仅没涨，反而还跌了 13元/克，报价956元/克，为最低价金店。今日品牌金店价差44元/克（1000元/克-956元/克），价差再次 拉大。 | 今日金店黄金回收价格一览（2025年7月1日） | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | | 黄金 | 757.30 | 元/克 | | 菜百黄金 | 752.90 | 元/克 | | 周生生黄金 | 751.60 | 元/克 | | 周大福黄金 | 755.00 | 元/克 | | 老凤祥黄金 | 760.50 | 元/克 | 说完首饰黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 昨日现货黄金开局有下跌趋势，一度跌至了3247.11美元/盎司，后不断震荡上行。最终收报3302.71美 元/盎司，涨幅0.90%。今日金价仍保持回升，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3327.89美元/盎司，涨幅0.76%。 昨日金价大幅回升，主要是美元指数出现大跌，创2022年2 ...

Economic Data and Events - Investors should closely monitor key economic data and events this week, including speeches from Federal Reserve officials, ISM manufacturing data, ADP employment report, and non-farm payroll data, as these will provide insights into the Fed's monetary policy path and influence gold prices [1] Gold Market Analysis - The international gold market experienced a downward trend last week due to a rapid decline in risk aversion, breaking below the critical level of 3300, resulting in a small bearish candle [1] - The weekly chart indicates that gold has fallen below the MA10 support, with the MACD indicator forming a death cross at high levels, suggesting potential further decline towards the MA20 [1] - The daily chart shows that bullish momentum has halted, with the moving averages in a tight range, and although the MACD has formed a death cross, it is near the zero line, indicating limited downside potential before a breakout [1] - Short-term trading strategy for gold suggests focusing on buying on dips around 3290, with a stop loss at 3282 and a target of 3320-3340 [1] Silver Market Analysis - The daily chart for silver shows a small candlestick with a notably low wick, resembling a potential doji pattern, indicating market indecision between buyers and sellers [3] - The support level at 35.12, corresponding to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from April to June, provides a solid technical base, while resistance above may limit short-term gains [3] - Domestic silver futures are trading above 8765, with a slight increase of 0.09%, indicating a bullish short-term outlook [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold market is driven by complex international geopolitical events and market dynamics, leading to significant price fluctuations and investor uncertainty [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline from 777 CNY per gram to 764 CNY within a week, resulting in a loss of 2.8 million CNY for a trader holding 200 kg of gold bars [1]. - The initial surge in gold prices to 3450 USD was triggered by geopolitical tensions, specifically an Israeli airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities, but a rapid de-escalation led to a subsequent drop below the critical support level of 3350 USD [1][5]. - The market saw a significant outflow from the largest gold ETF (GLD) in May, with North American funds selling 19 tons of gold, while central banks, including the People's Bank of China, continued to accumulate gold [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates has dampened market expectations for rate cuts, pushing traders to delay their predictions for rate reductions to October [5]. - U.S. consumer spending unexpectedly fell by 0.1% in May, while the core PCE price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year, creating a challenging economic environment for gold [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators showed a bearish trend, with gold prices breaking below 3350 USD, prompting algorithmic trading systems to issue sell signals [7]. - The New York Mercantile Exchange reported a significant increase in short positions, indicating a growing bearish sentiment among traders [7]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - There is a notable divide in market sentiment, with some analysts predicting further declines in gold prices, while others argue for continued central bank purchases as a long-term bullish indicator [9]. - Retail market behavior reflects this divide, with increased gold buyback activity at stores, while sales of gold products like gold beans surged by 80% [10]. Group 5: Investor Behavior - The volatility has led to a mix of panic and opportunism among investors, with some canceling orders while others seek to capitalize on lower prices [1][10]. - A trader expressed a long-term bullish outlook despite current market conditions, highlighting the cyclical nature of gold investments [12].

Group 1: Gold Market - Federal Reserve official Bostic reiterated expectations for a rate cut this year, briefly suppressing gold prices around $3295 [2] - Concerns arose after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated plans to seek a successor for Fed Chair Powell, alongside Trump's comments reigniting focus on the trade war with China [2] - Analyst Mai Dong noted that the return of U.S.-China tariff issues shifted market focus, leading to a rebound in gold prices [2] - Technically, gold showed a bullish trend with support at $3250 and a key resistance level at $3320 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Geopolitical tensions eased, reducing potential supply risks, with OPEC+ expected to maintain a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in August [4] - Trump's call to lower oil prices and encourage shale oil production, combined with profit-taking during the Iran conflict, led to a rapid decrease in net long positions in oil [5] - Seasonal demand remains strong due to summer travel peaks in Europe and the U.S., with ongoing positive signals from tariff negotiations [5] - Technically, the oil market is in a range between $63.95 and $66.90, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high within this range [5] Group 3: Nasdaq and Dollar Index - The Nasdaq continued its upward trend but faced pressure from Trump's criticisms of China [7] - The U.S. dollar weakened, breaking below the previous low of 96.97, with a focus on potential pullbacks around 97.20 [8]

Current Gold Price Dynamics - Spot gold price is reported at $3273 per ounce, with a weekly decline of nearly 3%, marking a four-week low, and it briefly fell below the $3250 level [1] - COMEX gold futures dropped to $3287.6 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 2.9% [1] Domestic Gold Prices - Retail gold prices for brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang range from 989 to 996 RMB per gram, down approximately 4% from peak levels [2] - Wholesale market prices in Shenzhen's Shui Bei dropped to 756 RMB per gram, down over 4% from 792 RMB per gram at the beginning of May [3] - Recycling prices are around 750-772 RMB per gram, with daily recycling volume increasing by 20%, and some shops reporting daily recycling volumes of several kilograms [4] Reasons for Recent Gold Price Decline - Decreased risk aversion due to easing Middle East tensions (ceasefire between Israel and Iran) and progress in US-China trade negotiations, which weakened demand for gold as a safe haven [5] - Monetary policy pressure as Fed Chair Powell emphasized the need to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation, with a July rate cut probability dropping to 20%, leading to a stronger dollar that suppresses gold prices [6] - Technical selling pressure triggered by gold prices breaking below the critical support level of $3300, leading to programmatic stop-loss selling [6] - Capital flows shifting towards risk assets, with US stock markets reaching new highs (S&P and Nasdaq at historical peaks) [7] Future Price Predictions - Bearish outlook from Citibank, predicting gold prices may fall to $2500-$2700 in 2026 due to weak demand and delayed rate cuts [8] - Short-term support levels indicate that if prices fall below $3250, they may test the $3200 level, potentially reaching the $3120-$3180 range [9] Bullish Outlook - Bullish perspective from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, with long-term targets of $4000, supported by central bank gold purchases (averaging over 1000 tons annually) and weakening dollar credit [10] - Key variables include geopolitical risks (compliance with ceasefire by Israel and potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz) and policy shifts (potential early rate cuts by the Fed if unemployment exceeds 5% or inflation drops sharply) [10] Consumer and Investor Strategies - For consumers, it is advisable to focus on essential purchases in Shenzhen's Shui Bei wholesale market (where processing fees are only one-third of brand stores) or products priced by weight with low processing fees [11] - Wedding demand strategies include brands offering "1:1 exchange with no depreciation" for old gold jewelry, reducing costs by 40% [12] - Investment strategies suggest a cautious approach in the short term, observing support levels of $3200-$3250, and considering short positions if these levels are breached; a rebound to $3320-$3330 could be an opportunity for short positions [13] - For long-term investments, a dollar-cost averaging strategy in gold ETFs (like Huaan Gold ETF) is recommended, with allocation controlled at 5%-10% of assets, alongside diversified investments in government bonds and stable financial products to avoid an all-in approach on gold [14] Market Volatility - Increased volatility is noted, with the 30-day historical volatility of gold rising to 18.7% and implied volatility of options exceeding 25% [16] Summary - Current gold prices are under dual pressure from geopolitical easing and a hawkish Fed, with short-term potential declines to the $3200-$3250 range, but long-term bullish trends supported by central bank purchases and monetary system changes [17] - Investors are advised to balance the safe-haven attributes with volatility risks, prioritizing a "dollar-cost averaging + phased entry" strategy, while consumers should take advantage of price corrections to avoid brand premiums and focus on transparent processing fees [17] - The market's next direction will depend on the stability of the Middle East situation and signals from the Fed's September policy meeting, with close attention to core PCE inflation data and geopolitical events [17]

张尧浠：避险减弱降息升温、黄金走低下方空间有限 黄金市场上周：国际黄金再度回落走低收跌，并收线至5-10周均线下方，打破了近数周的震荡上趋势支撑，同时附图指标信号高位死叉看空发展，暗示后 市将有望继续走低进一步触及中轨线支撑或更低的目标。 具体走势上，金价自周初开于3389.20美元/盎司，变先行录得当周高点3395.88美元，之后遇阻回落，周二进一步走低一度触及3300美元下方，虽周三周四 止跌震荡回升，但多头力度未能持稳加强重返阻力上方，使得周五时段再度面临抛售压力，并跌破60日均线支撑，录得当周低点3256.07美元，最终有所 止跌回升，收于3273.18美元，周振幅139.81美元，收跌116.02美元，跌幅3.42%。 影响上，受周末地缘局势的升级而高开，但动力未能持续，其特朗普称伊以将实现全面停火，以及后续市场对于中东局势认为是在"表演"而避险情绪反应 减弱，再加上鲍威尔暗示他将抵制7月降息，称在考虑降息前需要更多时间，打压金价转回落连续走低； 虽然受到60日均线支撑附近的买盘推动，以及特朗普表示将在三四人中选出下任美联储主席，令市场普遍预期美联储将很快恢复其降息周期，有所止跌震 荡，但受到技术阻 ...

本周末首先关注俄乌停火协议执行情况、伊朗与以色列是否再起摩擦，若冲突重新爆发，将直接刺激市 场避险情绪，下周开盘抬高黄金价格。其次，特朗普公开批评美联储主席鲍威尔，称"希望鲍威尔辞 职"，并暗示可能提名更鸽派的人选。若周末有相关消息发酵，可能影响市场对美联储政策的预期。 可以说，现在近期市场在无避险事件下，黄金更加偏向回落，前期偏激涨势也需要修正。只要无上方说 的几个事情，那么下周一开盘自然还是以做空为主，上方3280为初步阻力，其次就是3300关口，只要这 里不破，周一开盘直接在其下方做空即可。目标依次看3230-3200一线。当然，止损还是带好，毕竟避 险来了涨势可不讲道理。 转自：黄金分析师张津镭 昨日金价继续走了一个跌势行情，亚盘开盘便开始回落，午盘反弹3203附近进场空单，随后金价一路回 落直接跌破3300关口，美盘刷新日内低点至3255美元，空单亦是于3260自动止盈离场，大赚40美金。最 终金价是收盘于3273美元，日线收于2连阴。 本周现货黄金延续跌势，累计下跌约2.8%，几日连续空单亦是赚的盆满钵满。一是美国核心PCE物价指 数同比上涨2.8%，高于预期，强化了市场对美联储可能再加息50个基 ...