近期，我国债券市场规模稳定增长。中国人民银行公布的金融市场运行情况显示，6月份，国债发行 15903.9亿元，地方政府债券发行11753.2亿元，金融债券发行10738.7亿元，公司信用类债券发行14257.3 亿元，信贷资产支持证券发行247.2亿元，同业存单发行34569.3亿元。 记者日前从中国人民银行获悉，6月份，我国债券市场共发行各类债券87939.5亿元。截至6月末，我国 债券市场托管余额188.5万亿元。 此外，截至6月末，境外机构在中国债券市场的托管余额4.3万亿元，占中国债券市场托管余额的比重为 2.3%。其中，境外机构在银行间债券市场的托管余额4.2万亿元。（记者任军 吴雨） ...

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced adjustments this year due to improved risk appetite and marginally better fundamental expectations, with central bank signals indicating continued support for the bond market [1] - Many institutions hold a positive outlook for the bond market, suggesting that the market may exhibit characteristics of "resilience amid shocks" due to various factors such as declining interest rates and ongoing economic recovery challenges [1] - Bond funds are increasingly favored by investors for asset allocation, as they can complement equity assets and reduce overall portfolio volatility during stock market fluctuations [1] Group 2 - Bond funds have shown impressive performance in terms of returns, with core income derived from bond coupons remaining relatively stable despite short-term market fluctuations [2] - As of July 30 this year, the total index of bond funds has increased by 40.11% over the past decade, significantly outperforming the 5.62% increase of the CSI 300 index during the same period [2] - The Minsheng Jianyin Xinxiang Bond Fund, managed by Xie Zhihua, has demonstrated outstanding performance, with net value growth rates of 19.23% and 18.30% over the past three years and one year, respectively, surpassing their performance benchmarks [2]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China released the financial market operation data for June 2025, indicating significant activity in the bond market [1] Group 1: Bond Market Issuance - In June, the total issuance of various bonds reached 87,939.5 billion yuan [1] - The breakdown of bond issuance includes: - Government bonds: 15,903.9 billion yuan - Local government bonds: 11,753.2 billion yuan - Financial bonds: 10,738.7 billion yuan - Corporate credit bonds: 14,257.3 billion yuan - Credit asset-backed securities: 247.2 billion yuan - Interbank certificates of deposit: 34,569.3 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Bond Market Custody Balance - As of the end of June, the total custody balance of the bond market was 188.5 trillion yuan [1] - The custody balance in the interbank market was 166.7 trillion yuan - The custody balance in the exchange market was 21.9 trillion yuan [1]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported the financial market operations for June 2025, highlighting a bond market custody balance of 188.5 trillion yuan as of the end of June [1][2]. Bond Market Issuance - In June, the bond market issued a total of 87,939.5 billion yuan in various bonds, including 15,903.9 billion yuan in government bonds, 11,753.2 billion yuan in local government bonds, 10,738.7 billion yuan in financial bonds, 14,257.3 billion yuan in corporate credit bonds, 247.2 billion yuan in credit asset-backed securities, and 34,569.3 billion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit [2]. Bond Market Operations - The interbank bond market saw a total transaction volume of 34.3 trillion yuan in June, with an average daily transaction of 1.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.2% but a month-on-month increase of 6.2% [3]. Foreign Participation in Bond Market - As of the end of June, foreign institutions held a custody balance of 4.3 trillion yuan in the Chinese bond market, accounting for 2.3% of the total custody balance [4]. Money Market Operations - The interbank lending market recorded a transaction volume of 8.4 trillion yuan in June, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.2% and a month-on-month increase of 26.0% [5]. Commercial Paper Market - In June, the acceptance amount of commercial bills reached 3.5 trillion yuan, while the discount amount was 2.8 trillion yuan, with small and micro enterprises accounting for 93.2% of all bill issuers [6]. Stock Market Performance - By the end of June, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,444.4 points, up 96.9 points or 2.9%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose to 10,465.1 points, an increase of 424.5 points or 4.2% [7]. Holder Structure in Interbank Bond Market - As of the end of June, there were 3,989 institutional members in the interbank bond market, all of which were financial institutions, with the top 50 investors in corporate credit bonds holding 48.0% of the total [9].

Market Overview - In June, the average daily trading volume in the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 510.4 billion yuan, an increase of 8.6% month-on-month; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's average daily trading volume was 796.9 billion yuan, up 11.5% month-on-month [1][7] Bond Market Issuance - In June, the bond market issued a total of 87,939.5 billion yuan in various bonds, including 15,903.9 billion yuan in government bonds, 11,753.2 billion yuan in local government bonds, 10,738.7 billion yuan in financial bonds, 14,257.3 billion yuan in corporate credit bonds, 247.2 billion yuan in credit asset-backed securities, and 34,569.3 billion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit [2] Bond Market Operation - In June, the interbank bond market had a total transaction volume of 34.3 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 1.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2% but a month-on-month increase of 6.2% [3] Foreign Participation in Bond Market - As of the end of June, the custody balance of foreign institutions in the Chinese bond market was 4.3 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.3% of the total custody balance [4] Money Market Activity - In June, the interbank lending market had a transaction volume of 8.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% and a month-on-month increase of 26.0% [5] Commercial Paper Market - In June, the acceptance amount of commercial bills was 3.5 trillion yuan, and the discount amount was 2.8 trillion yuan [6] Stock Market Performance - By the end of June, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,444.4 points, an increase of 96.9 points or 2.9% month-on-month; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,465.1 points, up 424.5 points or 4.2% month-on-month [7]

Bond Market Issuance - In June 2025, the total issuance of various bonds in the bond market reached 87,939.5 billion yuan, including 15,903.9 billion yuan of government bonds, 11,753.2 billion yuan of local government bonds, 10,738.7 billion yuan of financial bonds, 14,257.3 billion yuan of corporate credit bonds, 247.2 billion yuan of credit asset-backed securities, and 34,569.3 billion yuan of interbank certificates of deposit [3] Bond Market Custody Balance - As of the end of June, the custody balance of the bond market was 188.5 trillion yuan, with 166.7 trillion yuan in the interbank market and 21.9 trillion yuan in the exchange market. The custody balances by bond type included 37.2 trillion yuan of government bonds, 51.7 trillion yuan of local government bonds, 42.7 trillion yuan of financial bonds, 33.7 trillion yuan of corporate credit bonds, 1.0 trillion yuan of credit asset-backed securities, and 21.1 trillion yuan of interbank certificates of deposit [3] Bond Market Trading Activity - In June, the interbank bond market saw a total transaction volume of 34.3 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 1.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.2% but a month-on-month increase of 6.2%. The exchange bond market recorded a transaction volume of 3.8 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 190.5 billion yuan [4] Foreign Participation in Bond Market - By the end of June, the custody balance of foreign institutions in the Chinese bond market was 4.3 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.3% of the total custody balance. Foreign institutions held 2.1 trillion yuan of government bonds, 1.2 trillion yuan of interbank certificates of deposit, and 0.8 trillion yuan of policy bank bonds [5] Money Market Activity - In June, the interbank lending market recorded a transaction volume of 8.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% and a month-on-month increase of 26.0%. The bond repurchase transactions totaled 156.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.7% and a month-on-month increase of 20.4% [6] Commercial Paper Market - In June, the acceptance amount of commercial bills was 3.5 trillion yuan, and the discount amount was 2.8 trillion yuan. By the end of June, the acceptance balance of commercial bills was 19.3 trillion yuan, and the discount balance was 14.8 trillion yuan. Small and micro enterprises accounted for 93.2% of the total bill issuers and 69.8% of the total bill issuance amount [7] Stock Market Performance - At the end of June, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,444.4 points, up 96.9 points or 2.9% from the previous month. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,465.1 points, up 424.5 points or 4.2%. The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai market was 510.4 billion yuan, an increase of 8.6% month-on-month, while the Shenzhen market's average daily trading volume was 796.9 billion yuan, an increase of 11.5% month-on-month [9] Bond Market Holder Structure - As of the end of June, there were 3,989 institutional members in the interbank bond market, all of which were financial institutions. The top 50 investors in corporate credit bonds held 48.0% of the total, primarily concentrated in public funds, state-owned commercial banks, and insurance financial institutions [10]

Market Overview - The bond market experienced a significant rise, with the 30-year government bond ETF (511090) increasing by 0.52% as of 10:00 AM [1] - The latest price for the 30-year government bond futures contract (TL2509) was 119.07 yuan, up 0.63%, with a trading volume of 46,165 contracts and a total open interest of 117,716 contracts [1] - Other government bond futures also saw increases, with the 10-year bond (T2509) up 0.16%, the 5-year bond (TF2509) up 0.07%, and the 2-year bond (TS2509) up 0.01% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 283.2 billion yuan, maintaining a bid rate of 1.40% [1] - Major interbank interest rates for government bonds generally declined, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping by 3.25 basis points to 1.715% and the 30-year bond yield decreasing by 4 basis points to 1.921% [1] Bond Market Insights - As the end of July approached, bill rates fell sharply, with the 1-month corporate acceptance bill rate dropping to 0.01% [2] - The demand from small and medium-sized institutions, represented by rural commercial banks, was strong, indicating insufficient credit issuance in July [2] - Major banks have been actively purchasing bills, with net purchases exceeding 210 billion yuan from July 21 to 25 and over 500 billion yuan for the entire month, compared to just over 120 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - The bond market showed signs of recovery, with the 30-year government bond yield declining nearly 4 basis points and other maturities recovering by 2-3 basis points [2] Investment Product Highlight - The Pengyang 30-year government bond ETF (511090) is the first ETF tracking the 30-year government bond index, offering T+0 trading attributes [3] - This product allows investors to engage in day trading for profit and helps in extending portfolio duration or hedging equity positions [3] - It serves as a high-elasticity cash management tool and a duration adjustment tool, making it attractive for investors, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on July 30 analyzed the current economic situation and deployed economic work for the second half of the year. The subsequent policy direction is expected to further support the economy, and the bond market is expected to enter a recovery phase [11][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - The Political Bureau's statement on the economy is positive, with GDP growing by 5.4% and 5.2% year-on-year in Q1 and Q2 respectively, exceeding the annual target of around 5%. However, the economy still faces structural issues, and policies will further support the economy to prevent systemic risks [11]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy continues to be proactive and may increase efforts at appropriate times. The issuance of government bonds in the first half of the year was rapid, and if the net financing rhythm from January to May is maintained, the annual issuance limit may be reached in August [2][12]. 3.3 Monetary Policy - The meeting adheres to a "moderately loose" monetary policy, aiming to maintain ample liquidity and lower the comprehensive social financing cost. Bank deposit rates may be further reduced in the second half of the year [3][13]. 3.4 Industry Clearance - The policy will continue to standardize market competition, specifically targeting over - capacity in key industries and regulating local government investment promotion behaviors [4][14]. 3.5 Consumption and Investment - Consumption policies will support both commodity and service consumption and expand the scope of service consumption support. The "Two - Major" construction will stimulate private investment, as the previous intensive issuance of government bonds did not lead to a rapid increase in infrastructure investment [5][15][17]. 3.6 Real Estate - Real estate policies will focus on stabilizing the market rather than stimulating it. "Urban renewal" may be an important measure to increase potential demand [6][18]. 3.7 Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to enter a recovery phase. With continuous liquidity and stable market expectations, 10 - year and 30 - year government bonds are expected to return to their pre - adjustment levels of 1.65% and 1.85% respectively [7][19].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced significant fluctuations, with both government and credit bond yields showing varied movements on July 29, as reported by the China Bond Information Network [1]. Group 1: Bond Market Overview - The China Bond Composite Index (net price) decreased by 0.1783% to 108.6615, while the China Bond Composite Index (wealth) fell by 0.1694% to 255.581 [1]. - The average market value yield was reported at 1.9343%, with an average duration of 6.066 [1]. Group 2: Government Bond Yields - The yield curve for government bonds saw an increase, with the 3-month yield rising by 1 basis point (BP) to 1.36%, the 2-year yield up by 3 BP to 1.44%, and the 10-year yield also increasing by 3 BP to 1.75% [1]. Group 3: Credit Bond Yields - The credit bond market showed mixed results, with the AAA-rated short-term note yield curve seeing a 1 BP decrease in the 3-month yield to 1.65%, while the 3-year yield increased by 3 BP to 1.90%, and the 5-year yield rose by 3 BP to 2.02% [1]. - For A-rated short-term notes, the 1-year yield increased by 1 BP to 6.97% [1].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department announced a significant increase in net borrowing for Q3 2025, projecting over $1 trillion, up from the previously expected $554 billion, aligning with Wall Street analysts' forecasts [1][3] - This announcement follows the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act on July 4, which raised the total borrowing limit by $5 trillion, allowing the Treasury to issue new debt [3] - As of July 3, government cash reserves were only $313 billion, less than half of the amount from the previous year, highlighting the need for increased borrowing [3] Group 2 - The Treasury expects net borrowing for Q4 2025 to reach $590 billion, indicating ongoing pressure on the U.S. government's ability to service debt and maintain spending [3] - The upcoming financing announcement from the Treasury will detail the structure of this borrowing, including the timing and distribution of bond issuances, which is anticipated to significantly impact the bond market [3] - There is a general expectation that the Treasury will keep long-term bond issuance stable while increasing short-term Treasury bill sales, which may lead to greater volatility in short-term interest rates [3] Group 3 - The tax cuts implemented during the Trump administration have resulted in reduced federal tax revenues, creating long-term pressure on fiscal income [3] - Although recent increases in tariff revenues have somewhat alleviated this pressure, the sustainability of high tariff income remains uncertain due to changes in international trade agreements [3]