Market Performance - The BU 2602 contract closed at 2977, with a gain of 0.27%, reaching a high of 3020 and a low of 2965 during the day, accumulating a 0.7% increase over the past week [2][33] - The next month contract, BU 2603, saw a slight increase of 0.13%, maintaining a contango structure with lower near-term prices compared to longer-term prices [2][33] Spot Market - The price of Shandong heavy asphalt remained stable at 2920 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.3% [2][33] - In East China, the heavy asphalt price decreased by 1.3% to 3090 CNY/ton, with a basis of 113 CNY/ton, down 75 CNY/ton over the week [2][33] Crack Spread Changes - The BU-Brent spread recorded -194 CNY/ton, with a weekly decrease of 14 CNY/ton, while the BU main contract fell by 0.6% and Brent by 0.1% [2][33] - Oil prices are influenced by geopolitical disturbances in Venezuela, leading to uncertainty in short-term price stabilization [2][33] Fundamental Changes - The dilution asphalt discount widened to -13.72 USD/barrel as of December 22, compared to -13.46 USD/barrel a week earlier, indicating a relative expansion [4][34] - Total social and domestic inventory data recorded 642,000 tons, reflecting a 0.9% increase week-on-week, indicating a slow de-inventory process [4][34] - The Shandong heavy asphalt market shows signs of stabilization, supported by winter storage prices, while supply risks are rising due to the U.S. seizing Venezuelan oil tankers [4][34] Short-term Outlook - Prices are expected to remain weak, constrained by reduced demand and inventory pressures, with attention on the winter storage market's performance [4][34] - OPEC+ production increases are likely to impact oil price levels, with asphalt prices expected to follow a downward trend [4][34] - Technically, asphalt prices are anticipated to continue fluctuating at low levels [4][34] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to adopt a wide-ranging oscillation approach [6][35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the content. Report Core View - Steel prices are supported by the cost - end but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3]. - Iron ore shipments remain high, with non - mainstream mines as the main source of incremental supply, exerting significant supply pressure. However, iron ore also has upward drivers such as the expected bottoming of hot - metal production, so it is expected to trade in a range [21]. - As terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve. For coke, after three rounds of price cuts, the valuation repair drive may be weakened [30]. - The fundamentals of ferroalloys show both weak supply and demand. Their price increase space is limited, but they are also supported by costs [46]. - With the strengthening expectation of new soda ash capacity coming into production, the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. The spot - futures basis is high, and the inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [60]. - From December to before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be shut down for cold repair, which may affect long - term pricing. Currently, the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [83]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Futures Price - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3116 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 3128 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 10 contract was 3169 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3280 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 05 contract was 3281 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the 10 contract was 3295 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [4]. Spot Price - On December 23, 2025, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3330 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day. The aggregated price in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Beijing was 3130 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hangzhou was 3330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Lecong was 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shenyang was 3190 yuan/ton, unchanged [8][10]. Basis and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 204 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan from the previous day; the 05 basis was 192 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the 10 basis was 151 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 10 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 05 basis was - 11 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 10 basis was - 25 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 164 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 05 spread was 153 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 10 spread was 126 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [8][10][14]. Iron Ore Price and Basis - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the 01 iron ore contract was 796.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 778.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the 09 contract was 756.5 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The 01 basis was - 2.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan; the 05 basis was 13.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan; the 09 basis was 34.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan [22]. Fundamental Data - From December 19, 2025, the average daily hot - metal output was 226.55 tons, down 2.65 tons week - on - week; the 45 - port desilting volume was 313.45 tons, down 5.74 tons week - on - week; the apparent demand for five major steel products was 835 tons, down 4 tons week - on - week; the global shipment volume was 3464.5 tons, down 128 tons week - on - week; the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2748.6 tons, down 140.7 tons week - on - week; the 45 - port arrival volume was 2646.7 tons, down 76.7 tons week - on - week; the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63 tons, up 81.21 tons week - on - week; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 8723.95 tons, down 110.25 tons week - on - week; the available days for 247 steel mills were 31.09 days, down 0.1 days week - on - week [25]. Coking Coal and Coke Futures Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 159 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; the 05 - 09 spread was - 78 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 01 - 05 spread was - 81 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan. The coke 09 - 01 spread was 218 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the 05 - 09 spread was - 76 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread was - 142 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan. The on - disk coking profit was 38 yuan/ton, down 19.281 yuan; the main mine - coke ratio was 0.447, down 0.001; the main rebar - coke ratio was 1.797, up 0.004; the main coke - coking coal ratio was 1.544, down 0.021 [33]. Spot Price - On December 23, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No.5 raw coal at the 288 Port was 970 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry coke was 1530 yuan/ton, unchanged [37]. Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - On December 23, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 48 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan from the previous day; the 01 - 05 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 05 - 09 spread was - 58 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the 09 - 01 spread was 144 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5350 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Inner Mongolia was 5350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Qinghai was 5250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shaanxi was 5320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Gansu was 5300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [47]. Silicon Manganese - On December 23, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 98 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan from the previous day; the 01 - 05 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 05 - 09 spread was - 46 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 09 - 01 spread was 116 yuan/ton, unchanged. The silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5540 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia was 5570 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guizhou was 5620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guangxi was 5670 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Yunnan was 5620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [48][49]. Soda Ash Futures Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1175 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.51%; the 09 contract was 1232 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.74%; the 01 contract was 1117 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.72%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 57 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan, with a change of 5.56%; the 9 - 1 spread was 115 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan, with a change of 0.88%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan, with a change of - 3.33%. The basis of Shahe heavy soda was - 50 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the basis of Qinghai heavy soda was - 249 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [61]. Spot Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the market price of heavy soda in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in South China was 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Central China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northeast China was 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Southwest China was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai was 920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shahe was 1137 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan. The market price of light soda in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in South China was 1350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China was 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Central China was 1180 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northeast China was 1350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Southwest China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai was 920 yuan/ton, unchanged. The difference between heavy and light soda in most regions was 50 - 70 yuan/ton [61]. Glass Futures Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1028 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 0.29%; the 09 contract was 1130 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.09%; the 01 contract was 938 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.75%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 102 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was 192 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 01 contract basis in Shahe was 77 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; in Hubei was 159 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 05 contract basis in Shahe was - 33 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; in Hubei was 59 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 09 contract basis in Shahe was - 130 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; in Hubei was - 41 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [84]. Sales and Production - From December 13 - 19, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was between 69 - 98%; in Hubei was between 75 - 109%; in East China was between 83 - 98%; in South China was between 95 - 107% [85].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No core viewpoints are explicitly stated in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Basis and Spreads - The Shandong basis (+80) (non-Jingbo) decreased from 2 on 11/20 to -2915 on 12/22, with a daily change of -2916 and a weekly change of -2931 [4][12]. - The East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) decreased from 42 on 11/20 to -2995 on 12/22, with a daily change of -2986 and a weekly change of -3081 [4][12]. - The South China basis (Foshan warehouse) decreased from 22 on 11/20 to -2995 on 12/22, with a daily change of -2886 and a weekly change of -3031 [4][12]. - The 01 - 03 spread decreased from -42 on 11/20 to -30 on 12/22, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of -5 [4][12]. - The 02 - 03 spread increased from -27 on 11/20 to -12 on 12/22, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of 10 [4][12]. - The 03 - 06 spread increased from -31 on 11/20 to -23 on 12/22, with a daily change of 7 and a weekly change of 21 [4][12]. 3.2. BU Main Contract (02) - The price of the BU main contract (02) increased from 3058 on 11/20 to 2995 on 12/22, with a daily change of 86 and a weekly change of 101 [4][12]. - The trading volume increased from 439,201 on 11/20 to 572,497 on 12/22, with a daily change of 105,545 and a weekly change of 2,082 [4][12]. - The open interest increased from 330,157 on 11/20 to 486,961 on 12/22, with a daily change of 11,963 and a weekly change of 14,856 [4][12]. - The contract value remained at 4,180 from 12/16 to 12/22, with no daily or weekly change [4][12]. 3.3. Spot Market - The price of Brent crude oil increased from 63.4 on 11/20 to 60.5 on 12/22, with a daily change of 0.6 and a weekly change of -0.1 [4][12]. - The price of Jingbo asphalt decreased from 3020 on 11/20 to 0 on 12/22, with a daily change of -2950 and a weekly change of -2950 [4][12]. - The price of Shandong (non-Jingbo) asphalt decreased from 2980 on 11/20 to 0 on 12/22, with a daily change of -2830 and a weekly change of -2830 [4][12]. - The price of Zhenjiang warehouse asphalt decreased from 3100 on 11/20 to 0 on 12/22, with a daily change of -2900 and a weekly change of -2980 [4][12]. - The price of Foshan warehouse asphalt decreased from 3080 on 11/20 to 0 on 12/22, with a daily change of -2800 and a weekly change of -2930 [4][12]. 3.4. Profit - The asphalt Marrow profit decreased from 223 on 11/20 to 425 on 12/22, with a daily change of -21 and a weekly change of 4 [4][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the cost - effectiveness and application prospects of the long - substitution strategy for the 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL contract). By comparing the net - price trends, basis structures, and holding - return differences between the CTD bond of the TL contract and various spot targets, the report validates the feasibility of the long - substitution strategy. Back - testing shows that the strategy with the implied spread signal performs best, achieving annualized excess returns of 1.35%, 0.81%, and 1.05% for the 30 - year active bond, ChinaBond 30 - year Treasury bond index, and 30 - year Treasury bond ETF respectively. The TL contract can provide a more flexible allocation plan for investors [1][3][80]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Current Cost - Effectiveness of the TL Contract as a Spot Long - Substitution (1) Net - Price Trend Correlation between the CTD Bond of the TL Contract and the 30 - Year Treasury Bond Active Bond/Index - The CTD bond of the TL contract is currently anchored to the 30 - year old bond. Its duration is shorter, yield is higher, and coupon rate is significantly higher than those of the 30 - year active bond and the ChinaBond 30 - year Treasury bond index. - In general, the net - price trends of the CTD bond of the TL contract and the 30 - year active bond/new index are similar. When the spread between new and old bonds narrows or widens significantly, differences may occur. In the case of a narrowing spread between new and old bonds and rising/volatile interest rates, the net - price trend of the CTD bond of the TL contract may be stronger than that of the 30 - year active bond/index; conversely, it may be weaker [2][9][11]. (2) Comparison of the Basis of the TL Contract and the Holding Returns of the 30 - Year Treasury Bond Active Bond/Index - The basis of the TL contract can be split into the holding return of the CTD bond and the net basis. The holding return accounts for a relatively high proportion in the basis pricing. - The coupon rate of the CTD bond of the TL contract is significantly higher than those of the 30 - year active bond and the ChinaBond 30 - year Treasury bond index. The net basis of the TL contract fluctuates greatly, increasing the probability of higher "coupon - like" returns compared to the 30 - year active bond/index [12][17][20]. (3) Rule Summary - The CTD bond of the current TL contract is anchored to the 30 - year old bond, with a shorter duration, higher yield, and higher coupon rate. - The TL contract is likely to have higher "coupon - like" returns than the 30 - year active bond/index. Assuming that the 30 - year Treasury bond interest rate does not rise close to 3% in the short term, the feature of the TL contract being anchored to the relatively high - coupon old bond is expected to continue [25][26]. II. Back - testing of the Long - Substitution Strategy (1) Comparison of Rolling Long - Position Returns between Futures and Spot - By comparing the continuous holding returns and risk performance of the TL Treasury bond futures contract, the 30 - year active bond, and the ChinaBond 30 - year Treasury bond index in the same back - testing period, the cost - effectiveness of the futures tool in a simple long - position allocation scenario can be intuitively judged. - Without considering capital costs, the annualized return of continuously holding the TL contract is only 0.66% lower than that of the 30 - year active bond. The difference between the annualized return of the ChinaBond 30 - year Treasury bond index and that of continuously holding the TL contract is small, indicating the feasibility of further back - testing the long - substitution strategy [29][31]. (2) Signal and Strategy Construction - Signal types: Three signals are constructed, including the historical quantile of the basis level, the "minimum" threshold for the basis convergence of futures converted from the spot holding return, and the superposition of the first two signals. - Strategy construction: Based on the above signals, a long - substitution strategy is back - tested on the TL contract. The futures closing date is set as the second - last trading day of the month before the futures contract delivery month. The spot targets include the 30 - year Treasury bond active bond, ChinaBond 30 - year Treasury bond index, and 30 - year Treasury bond ETF. The strategy also involves capital management and a specific back - testing time interval [32][34][37]. (3) Back - testing of the Futures Long - Substitution Strategy - For the 30 - year Treasury bond active bond, the implied spread signal performs best. The annualized return of signal 1 and the superposition signal is 11.74%, 1.35% higher than holding the 30 - year Treasury bond active bond, with better risk - return ratios. - For the ChinaBond 30 - year Treasury bond index, the implied spread signal 1 and the superposition signal also perform best, with an annualized return of 12.45%, 0.81% higher than holding the index, and better risk - control and risk - return indicators. - For the 30 - year Treasury bond ETF, using the implied spread signal, signal 1 and the superposition signal achieve an annualized return of 12.15%, 1.05% higher than holding the ETF [37][54][73]. (4) Conclusion - The TL contract can be regarded as a substitute for the 30 - year old Treasury bond. The long - substitution strategy with the implied spread as the core signal can effectively optimize asset - allocation efficiency, providing a differentiated allocation plan for investors, especially suitable for index - based assets such as the ChinaBond 30 - year Treasury bond index and 30 - year Treasury bond ETF [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on December 23, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of multiple futures varieties [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The report provides the basis data of power coal from December 16 to December 22, 2025. During this period, the basis values were - 74.4, - 83.4, - 90.4, - 98.4, and - 106.4 yuan/ton respectively, and the 5 - month - 1 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month, and 9 - month - 5 - month spreads were all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - It shows the basis, price ratio, and other data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from December 16 to December 22, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on December 22 was 34.10 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber on December 22 was - 405 yuan/ton [8]. - **Inter - period**: The 5 - month - 1 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month, and 9 - month - 5 - month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented. For example, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread of rubber was - 40 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are given. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on December 22 was 1693 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on December 22 was 194.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - period**: The 5 - month - 1 - month, 9(10) - month - 1 - month, and 9(10) - month - 5 - month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread of rebar was - 2.0 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on December 22 was 4.00 [19]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of copper on December 22 was - 510 yuan/ton [27]. 3.4.2 London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit - loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 22, 2025 are given. For example, the LME spread of copper was 6.58 [34]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on December 22 was - 85 yuan/ton [41]. - **Inter - period**: The 5 - month - 1 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month, and 9 - month - 5 - month spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are presented. For example, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 49 yuan/ton [41]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, etc. from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are given. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on December 22 was 1.87 [41]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on December 22 was 46.82 [52]. - **Inter - period**: The next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 15.2 [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread rebounded, the monthly spread rebounded from a low level, and the basis rebounded. The European high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated, the monthly spread weakened, and the EW continued to strengthen. The 0.5% crack spread in Singapore weakened, the monthly spread fluctuated at a low level, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. The European V low - sulfur crack spread fluctuated at a low level [3]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage inventory increased, ARA's residual oil inventory remained basically flat, Fujairah's residual oil inventory decreased significantly, high - sulfur floating storage inventory decreased, and EIA's residual oil inventory increased slightly [3]. - This week, the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel continued to rebound. After the Al Zour refinery shut down due to a fire on October 21, the external low - sulfur fuel oil market faced support, but the short - term upward space was limited [4]. - The global residual oil market entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external crack spreads should pay attention to crude oil price fluctuations and feedstock premium/discount levels. This week, the external market's inventory decreased and the monthly spread strengthened, and it remained volatile in the short term. The valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil was low, but there was no driving force [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 16 to December 22, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased from 316.99 to 333.50, a change of 9.59; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from 364.37 to 380.56, a change of 10.10; the Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed from - 8.87 to - 8.94, a change of - 0.08; the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased from 588.11 to 601.54, a change of 13.47; the Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed from - 223.74 to - 220.98, a change of - 3.37; the LGO - Brent M1 increased from 22.32 to 21.09, a change of 0.32; the Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased from 47.38 to 47.06, a change of 0.51 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 16 to December 22, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 332.73 to 347.26, a change of 11.57; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased from 341.31 to 353.38, a change of 10.69; the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased from 406.98 to 417.31, a change of 12.58; the price of Singapore Gasoil M1 increased from 79.66 to 80.10, a change of 1.47; the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed from - 7.27 to - 6.81, a change of - 0.24; the Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed from - 182.50 to - 175.43, a change of 1.70 [1][7]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From December 16 to December 22, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased from 328.39 to 337.57, a change of 5.22; the FOB VLSFO price increased from 407.01 to 410.73, a change of 7.32; the 380 basis changed from - 4.05 to - 2.80, a change of 0.15; the high - sulfur internal - external price difference increased from 2.3 to 5.0, a change of 2.1; the low - sulfur internal - external price difference increased from 3.7 to 8.6, a change of 2.1 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From December 16 to December 22, 2025, the price of FU 01 increased from 2368 to 2413, a change of 57; the price of FU 05 increased from 2431 to 2474, a change of 59; the price of FU 09 increased from 2400 to 2440, a change of 58; the FU 01 - 05 changed from - 63 to - 61, a change of - 2; the FU 05 - 09 changed from 31 to 34, a change of 1; the FU 09 - 01 changed from 32 to 27, a change of 1 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From December 16 to December 22, 2025, the price of LU 01 increased from 2900 to 2969, a change of 83; the price of LU 05 increased from 2934 to 2974, a change of 62; the price of LU 09 increased from 2977 to 3010, a change of 58; the LU 01 - 05 changed from - 34 to - 5; the LU 05 - 09 changed from - 43 to - 36, a change of 4; the LU 09 - 01 changed from 77 to 41, a change of - 25 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports present a comprehensive analysis of various financial markets including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping. They detail price movements, spreads, and related market indicators for different contracts and time periods, offering insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures (Doc 1) - **Price Differences**: Provides price differences for various stock index futures contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, including current - month, next - month, and far - month spreads, as well as inter - period and cross - period spreads. For example, the IF period - to - period spread shows different values and percentage changes [1]. - **Quantile Information**: Presents historical 1 - year and all - time quantiles for price differences, helping to assess the relative position of current spreads [1]. Bond Futures (Doc 2) - **Basis and Spreads**: Details basis values for TS, TF, T, and TL bond futures, along with cross - period and cross - variety spreads. For instance, the T basis on 2025 - 12 - 19 was 1.6707 with a 0.0450 change from the previous day [2]. - **Percentile Data**: Includes the percentile of spreads since the futures contract listing, which is useful for understanding the spread's historical position [2]. Precious Metals (Doc 3) - **Price Movements**: Covers domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. For example, the AU2602 contract price decreased by 0.06% from 980.50 to 979.90 yuan/gram on December 19 [3]. - **Basis and Ratios**: Analyzes basis values between spot and futures prices and price ratios between different precious metals, such as the COMEX gold/silver ratio which decreased by 3.09% to 67.59 [3]. Container Shipping (Doc 5) - **Index Movements**: Tracks the movement of shipping indices like SCFIS and SCFI, showing changes in European and US routes. For example, the SCFIS (European route) increased by 0.10% to 1510.56 points on December 15 [5]. - **Futures and Fundamentals**: Provides futures prices and basis values for container shipping contracts, along with fundamental data such as global container capacity supply, port performance, and overseas economic indicators [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking spread rebounded, the monthly spread rebounded from a low level, and the basis rebounded. European high - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated, the monthly spread weakened, and the EW continued to strengthen. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore weakened, the monthly spread fluctuated at a low level, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. European V low - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated at a low level [4]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage inventory increased, ARA's residual oil inventory was basically flat, Fujairah's residual oil inventory significantly decreased, high - sulfur floating storage inventory decreased, and EIA's residual oil inventory slightly increased [4]. - This week, the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur and diesel continued to rebound. After the fire at Al Zour refinery on October 21, it stopped production, and the external low - sulfur market faced support, but the short - term upward space was limited [5]. - Global residual oil entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations and feedstock premium/discount levels in the external cracking spread. This week, the external market's inventory decreased and the monthly spread strengthened, and it remained volatile in the short term. The low - sulfur valuation was low but there was no driver [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/12/15 | 2025/12/16 | 2025/12/17 | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 320.55 | 316.99 | 325.12 | 327.47 | 323.91 | -3.56 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 375.22 | 364.37 | 368.94 | 369.76 | 370.46 | 0.70 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -9.66 | -8.87 | -8.40 | -8.26 | -8.86 | -0.60 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 602.86 | 588.11 | 594.14 | 593.29 | 588.07 | -5.22 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -227.64 | -223.74 | -225.20 | -223.53 | -217.61 | 5.92 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.59 | 22.32 | 22.33 | 22.13 | 20.77 | -1.36 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 54.67 | 47.38 | 43.82 | 42.29 | 46.55 | 4.26 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/12/15 | 2025/12/16 | 2025/12/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 337.68 | 332.73 | 337.69 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 344.37 | 341.31 | 344.87 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 415.04 | 406.98 | 404.54 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 80.91 | 79.66 | 78.95 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -7.78 | -7.27 | -6.18 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -183.69 | -182.50 | -179.69 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | 2025/12/15 | 2025/12/16 | 2025/12/17 | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 333.35 | 328.39 | 333.61 | 339.30 | 332.35 | -6.95 | | FOB VLSFO | 415.10 | 407.01 | 404.59 | 407.57 | 403.41 | -4.16 | | 380 Basis | -3.00 | -4.05 | -3.25 | -3.00 | -2.95 | 0.05 | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 1.9 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.9 | -0.4 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 6.0 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 1.7 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Product | 2025/12/15 | 2025/12/16 | 2025/12/17 | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2417 | 2368 | 2384 | 2403 | 2356 | -47 | | FU 05 | 2474 | 2431 | 2444 | 2464 | 2415 | -49 | | FU 09 | 2445 | 2400 | 2412 | 2431 | 2382 | -49 | | FU 01 - 05 | -57 | -63 | -60 | -61 | -59 | 2 | | FU 05 - 09 | 29 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 0 | | FU 09 - 01 | 28 | 32 | 28 | 28 | 26 | -2 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Product | 2025/12/15 | 2025/12/16 | 2025/12/17 | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 2988 | 2900 | 2864 | 2901 | 2886 | -15 | | LU 05 | 3003 | 2934 | 2912 | 2936 | 2912 | -24 | | LU 09 | 3039 | 2977 | 2956 | 2977 | 2952 | -25 | | LU 01 - 05 | -15 | -34 | -48 | -35 | -26 | 9 | | LU 05 - 09 | -36 | -43 | -44 | -41 | -40 | 1 | | LU 09 - 01 | 51 | 77 | 92 | 76 | 66 | -10 | [4] Fuel Oil Morning Report Data | Date | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Value | 341.67 | 335.69 | -5.98 | | Value | 352.34 | 342.69 | -9.65 | | Value | 407.95 | 404.73 | -3.22 | | Value | 79.76 | 78.63 | -1.13 | | Value | -6.01 | -6.57 | -0.56 | | Value | -182.27 | -177.13 | 5.14 | [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report Core View - The LPG market is characterized by a tight supply of Middle Eastern resources, rising premiums, and high prices in winter. The 1 - month CP official price is approaching release. The internal and external valuations are high, but the driving force is weak, and the internal and external trading logics are differentiated. The upward driving force of FEI is limited, and the domestic market needs to focus on the negative feedback between warehouse receipts and PDH, with high uncertainty [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Price and Basis - On December 15 - 19, 2025, the prices of Shandong LPG, propane CIF Japan, Shandong ether - after carbon four, etc. fluctuated. The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of 143 and a daily change of (- 19). The 01 - 02 month spread was 145 (+ 26), the 02 - 03 month spread was 166 (+ 5), and the 03 - 04 month spread was - 185 (+ 21). The FEI was 512 (+ 6) and the CP was 498 (- 1) US dollars/ton [4] Market Trends - The LPG futures price rebounded. The 01 basis was 162 (- 187), the 01 - 02 month spread was 119 (+ 35), and the 03 - 04 month spread was - 206 (+ 33). The number of warehouse receipts was 3368 lots (- 108). Domestic civil LPG prices were differentiated, with the most suitable delivery product being Shandong at 4380 (- 50), East China at 4398 (- 21), and South China at 4500 (+ 80). The FEI month spread strengthened, the CP month spread weakened, and the oil - gas ratio fluctuated [4] Profit and Inventory - The PDH spot profit was weak, but the futures profit rebounded. The number of arriving ships decreased by 7.64%, and the port inventory decreased by 7.89%. The refinery commercial volume increased by 0.82%, and the refinery inventory decreased by 0.03%. The PDH operating rate was 75% (+ 2.13 pct) [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The asphalt supply is low, with the weekly asphalt operating rate at 27.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point drop from the previous week and 0.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year. December's domestic asphalt production is expected to be 215.8 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous month and a 13.8% decrease year - on - year. Demand is weakening, with most downstream industries' operating rates falling. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 3.52% to 244,500 tons. The asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio is near the lowest level in recent years. Crude oil prices are weakly volatile. Market concerns about Venezuelan heavy crude exports have eased. With some Shandong refineries planning to switch to producing residue and road construction in the north ending, demand will further slow down. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Supply: The weekly asphalt operating rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 27.6%, hitting the lowest level in recent years. December's domestic asphalt production is expected to be 215.8 million tons, down 70,000 tons from the previous month and 344,000 tons year - on - year. Some refineries in East China had intermittent shutdowns, and some in Shandong plan to switch to residue production next week [1][5] - Demand: Most downstream industries' operating rates declined, with the road asphalt operating rate dropping 3 percentage points to 24% due to funding and weather. Road construction in the north is ending, and demand in the south is average. Southern refineries cut prices, and low - price products sold well [1][5] - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio dropped 0.2 percentage points to 13.2% this week, remaining near the lowest level in recent years [5] - Crude oil: Iraqi oilfields resumed production, and the US is promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. However, the US imposed new sanctions on Venezuela, causing concerns about Venezuelan heavy crude exports. These concerns eased after Trump did not declare war on Venezuela in a speech [1] - Price: The asphalt futures 2602 contract fell 1.95% to 2909 yuan/ton, with the lowest price at 2895 yuan/ton and the highest at 2945 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 6744 to 217,948 lots. The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2910 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract rose to 1 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [2][3] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The asphalt futures 2602 contract fell 1.95% to 2909 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 6744 to 217,948 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2910 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract rose to 1 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The asphalt operating rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 27.6%, the lowest in recent years. From January to October, national highway construction investment decreased by 6% year - on - year. From January to November, road transport fixed - asset investment decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [5] - Demand: As of December 19, most downstream industries' operating rates declined, with the road asphalt operating rate dropping 3 percentage points to 24% due to funding and weather [5] - Inventory: As of December 19, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio dropped 0.2 percentage points to 13.2%, near the lowest level in recent years [5]