投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-06-25 地缘冲突缓和，⿊⾊偏弱震荡 伊以局势缓和，受此影响双焦再度转弱。除此之外⿊⾊板块处于真空 期，能交易的其他驱动⾮常有限。产业⽅⾯热卷需求回暖，螺纹季节 性下⾏。供应端铁⽔⾼位回升，整体供需均环⽐⾛强，库存暂⽆压 ⼒。不过市场对后市需求预期依然偏悲观，整体⽽⾔，盘⾯仍处于震 荡盘整阶段。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山开始财年末和季末冲量，发运量有季节性 增加预期，7月上旬之前发运或将维持高位，但同比增量有限；需求 端钢企盈利率和铁水回升，预计短期可以维持高位。本周到港季节性 回升，港口小幅累库。短期海外矿山季末冲发运，矿石库存有阶段性 小幅累库预期，但预计幅度有限，整体供需矛盾不突出。近期重点关 注需求端钢企盈利状况和检修计划。 2、碳元素方面，近期主产区环保及安全检查趋严，煤矿间歇式停产 现象较多，焦煤产量持续下滑，但整体供应的收缩幅度相对有限； 进口方面，贸易商拉运积极性偏弱，口岸通关延续低位。需求端， 焦炭产量高位回落，焦企在去库及亏损压力下、开工存在进一步下降 预期。库存端，焦煤刚需有所下滑、下游原料补库需 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported total revenues of $1.5 billion and diluted earnings per share of $1.5 for the second quarter, exceeding delivery expectations due to improved build times [9][32] - Gross margin was 19.7%, excluding inventory-related charges, which was above guidance [9][33] - Book value per share increased to nearly $59, reflecting a 10% year-over-year increase [9][42] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated 3,460 net orders in the second quarter, with a monthly absorption pace of 4.5 net orders per community, down from 5.5 in the previous year [10][19] - Average selling price increased to approximately $489,000 year-over-year, despite mixed performance across regions [32] - Homebuilding revenues decreased by 10% from the prior year, totaling $1.52 billion [32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The housing market outlook remains favorable long-term, driven by demographics and an undersupply of homes, but short-term consumer confidence is low due to affordability challenges and high mortgage rates [7][8] - The company experienced a decline in net orders in April and May, which did not follow the typical spring trajectory [10][18] - Active communities increased by 2% year-over-year, contributing to a backlog of 4,776 homes valued at $2.3 billion [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on optimizing assets to generate higher returns by balancing pace and price on a community-by-community basis [11][12] - A shift back to a built-to-order model is planned, aiming to enhance customer choice and satisfaction [13][14] - The company is scaling back land-related investments to align with current market conditions while maintaining a healthy lot pipeline for future growth [28][39] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the need to adjust guidance for fiscal 2025 due to softer market conditions and net order results [14][35] - The company is committed to managing costs and improving build times, with a goal of achieving a 120-day build time [21][22] - Management expressed confidence in navigating current market conditions and supporting affordability for buyers [25][30] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $200 million of shares in the second quarter, with plans to continue repurchases in the third quarter [6][29] - Total liquidity at quarter-end was $1.2 billion, including $309 million in cash [40][41] - The company has returned over $1.59 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases over the past four years [42][43] Q&A Session Summary Question: What steps are being taken to reduce SG&A costs? - Management is adjusting headcount to align with new revenue projections and exploring various cost-saving measures [45][46][47] Question: What are the drivers behind the gross margin outlook? - The reduction in gross margin is attributed to operating leverage, land costs, and regional mix, with some offset from lower construction costs [48][49][50] Question: How will backlog turnover and absorption be managed? - Management aims for high backlog turnover ratios and expects to cover inventory through sales, similar to previous years [56][58][59] Question: What impact did community delays have on order pace? - Delays in community openings likely resulted in missing a couple hundred sales, affecting overall order pace [62][63] Question: How is the company addressing land inflation and pricing? - Management noted that land inflation is influenced by various factors, including entitlement and improvement costs, and is monitoring market conditions for potential relief [97][98]

研究报告 橡胶周报 地缘提振供需宽松，盘面或将区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 13705-14100 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格窄幅震荡，总体微幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 13900 元/吨，当周上涨 25 点，涨幅 0.18%。 【操作策略】 预计天然橡胶期货主力合约本周或将维持区间震荡。 操作上，建议保持观望，激进投资者可考虑区间操作。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 3 9 研究报告 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格窄幅震荡，总体微幅 上涨。 报告日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Nickel and Stainless Steel - The expectation of the nickel ore end in the long - term is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upward elasticity of nickel prices. Global refined nickel inventories are increasing marginally. Stainless steel supply and demand are both weakening marginally, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [4][5]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has a fast short - term warehouse receipt clearance, but the upside space is limited. Polysilicon should maintain a short - selling strategy. The fundamentals of both show an oversupply situation [30][34][35]. Carbonate Lithium - The supply of carbonate lithium is increasing while the demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be under pressure, showing a weak oscillation. Opportunities for short - selling at high prices and reverse spreads should be awaited [62][63][64]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Palm oil is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term pressure comes from the resumption of production, and the strategy is mainly based on spread expressions. There are potential long - term bullish factors. Soybean oil is also in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern, with potential upward space after the third quarter [88][89][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The logic of the ore end is dull, and the smelting end restricts the upside space. The global refined nickel inventory is increasing marginally, and the nickel - iron is in a state of surplus and inventory accumulation. The price of nickel is affected by factors such as the expected increase in Indonesian quotas and the possible removal of the Philippine raw ore export ban [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,437 tons to 36,471 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 7,602 tons to 205,140 tons. The mid - June nickel - iron inventory increased by 58% year - on - year and 10% month - on - month [6][7]. - **Market News**: There are various events such as the potential suspension of nickel exports from Canada to the US, the trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, the resumption of production of a nickel smelter, and the shutdown of a cold - rolling mill [10]. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Production and imports are decreasing marginally, the inventory pressure remains, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. In the long term, the price center may be difficult to lift significantly [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total social inventory of stainless steel increased by 1.04% week - on - week, with increases in both cold - rolled and hot - rolled inventories [7]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Price Movement**: The industrial silicon futures rebounded slightly this week, and the spot price remained stable. The futures closed at 7,390 yuan/ton on Friday [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The industry inventory is de - stocking again. The supply is expected to increase as factories in Xinjiang and Sichuan continue to resume production. The demand from downstream industries has short - term increases in some aspects but is still mainly based on rigid demand [31][32]. - **Future Outlook**: The strategy is to short at high prices. The follow - up focus is on the warehouse receipt situation. The high inventory restricts the upside space of the futures price [34]. Polysilicon - **Price Movement**: The polysilicon futures declined significantly this week, and the spot price is also expected to decrease [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The upstream inventory is slightly de - stocking. The supply is expected to increase as some factories resume production, while the terminal demand is declining, and the silicon wafer production is expected to be adjusted downward [31][32][33]. - **Future Outlook**: The strategy is to short at high prices. The price is expected to continue to decline towards the real cost line [35]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: The main contract of carbonate lithium oscillated downward. The 2507 contract closed at 59,820 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 60,400 yuan/ton [62]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing as the production and operating rate of the smelting end are growing. The demand is weakening as new energy vehicle sales show no significant increase, and the energy storage demand is expected to decline after reaching a peak in May. The inventory is accumulating [63]. - **Future Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - selling at high prices after the long - buying intention of the near - month contract is clear and reverse spreads after the end of June are recommended [64][65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Palm Oil - **Last Week's Logic**: The 09 contract rose by 4.86% due to the sudden positive news of the US biodiesel obligation and the geopolitical tension in the Middle East [88]. - **This Week's Logic**: The production in Malaysia is expected to be flat or slightly decrease in June. The export is strong, and there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in June. It is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term strategy is based on spread expressions, and long - buying can be considered at low levels before the fourth quarter [89]. Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Logic**: The 09 contract rose by 4.75% due to the sudden positive news of the US biodiesel obligation and the geopolitical tension in the Middle East [88]. - **This Week's Logic**: Internationally, the US EPA's policy will lead to an increase in the demand for soybean oil. Domestically, the inventory is accumulating currently but may reach a peak in July. It is also in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern, and long - buying opportunities can be observed in the fourth quarter [90][91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the spot price of lithium carbonate declined slightly, and the futures fluctuated narrowly following the macro - sentiment. The overall market situation is affected by factors on the supply, demand, inventory, and profit sides [1][2][3]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weak. If the consumer side weakens significantly, there is still room for the lithium carbonate market to decline. However, attention should be paid to the downstream's willingness to accept warehouse receipts [8]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Spot Market - **Price**: The lithium carbonate futures weakened this week. The main contract 2509 closed at 58,900 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.81%. The average price of battery - grade spot was 60,000 yuan/ton, down 1.23% from the previous week, and the average price of industrial - grade spot was 59,000 yuan/ton, down 1.26% from last week. The futures were at a discount of 1,500 yuan/ton to battery - grade lithium carbonate [1]. - **Supply**: The weekly output increased slightly to 18,500 tons, with an increase of 335 tons. The output from different sources all showed a slight increase [1]. - **Consumption**: The output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.92% month - on - month, ternary materials increased by 0.30%, cobalt - lithium decreased by 0.50%, and manganese - lithium decreased by 0.67%. The demand at the battery end is difficult to increase, and the industry chain is in a destocking trend [2]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the lithium carbonate industry increased. The spot inventory was 134,900 tons, an increase of 1,352 tons from last week. The futures warehouse receipt volume decreased to 30,000 tons [2]. - **Profit**: Lithium ore prices have been relatively stable recently. Enterprises purchasing lithium ore externally have difficulty in making profits and need to cooperate with futures hedging. Salt lake lithium extraction maintains profitability. Recycling material manufacturers are facing losses, and the processing fees of processing enterprises are in a competitive situation [2]. Other Products - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The output this week was 5,050 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.37%. The overall supply of the market is stable, but the industry's operating rate remains at a low level [3]. - **Cobalt**: The output of domestic cobalt sulfate is expected to be 1,080 metal tons this week, a decrease from last week, and the operating rate has also declined. The output of cobalt tetroxide is expected to be 2,415 tons, remaining stable compared to last week [4]. Market Transactions - **Lithium Carbonate**: Spot transactions were dull, and the basis of spot quotations weakened. Downstream procurement is still mainly based on long - term agreements and customer - supplied materials, and the demand for spot purchases is poor [3]. - **Cobalt**: The cobalt salt market is in the off - season of demand, and the demand growth momentum is limited. The downstream purchasing atmosphere is not good, and the market is mainly executing existing orders [5]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: If the consumer side weakens significantly, the lithium carbonate market still has room to decline. If the market rebounds, upstream enterprises should mainly sell for hedging at high prices [8]. - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money call options and use bear spread options [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Methanol: High imports are materializing, and inventory accumulation has begun. The market is undervalued, waiting for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. It's in a phase of negative factors materializing. Uncertainty exists in the unilateral direction due to macro instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US. Considering the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is favored [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profits are around - 400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, while LD is weakening. In June, maintenance is decreasing, and domestic linear production is increasing. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new device commissioning in 2025 [7]. - PP (Polypropylene): Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and imports have a profit of around - 500. Exports are performing well this year. PDH profit is around - 1000, and the propylene market is oscillating. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which could be alleviated by continuous export growth or more PDH device maintenance [7]. - PVC: The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 420. Downstream开工 is seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to new capacity commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, real - estate sales, terminal orders, and开工 in June [11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the动力煤 futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price increased from 2480 to 2765, and the South China spot price rose from 2450 to 2680. The daily change on June 19 showed an increase of 65 in Jiangsu and South China spot prices [2]. - **View**: High imports are realized, inventory is accumulating, and the market is in a phase of negative factors materializing. With low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price rose from 790 to 820. The North China LL price increased from 7210 to 7400, and the East China LL price went up from 7300 to 7500 [7]. - **View**: Overall inventory is neutral, import profits are stable, and attention should be paid to production conversion and new device commissioning [7]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the Shandong propylene price increased from 6410 to 6460. The East China PP price rose from 7090 to 7245 [7]. - **View**: Inventories are decreasing, and the market is under moderate to excessive pressure, which could be alleviated by certain factors [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2350, and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 872 to 842 [10][11]. - **View**: The basis has strengthened, inventories are decreasing, and attention should be paid to multiple factors in June [11].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 镍 格暂时表现坚挺，国内镍铁成交价格有小幅反弹迹象，但大厂招标价格维持 940 元/镍 点。不锈钢方面来看，原料价格持稳，供应端国内及印尼方面均有减产，但全国主流市 场不锈钢 89 仓库口径社会总库存 114.55 万吨，周环比上升 2.07%，需求疲软压制，供 应调节供需平衡仍需时间。新能源方面，品种价格表现平稳，6 月需求排产难有大量新 增。一级镍方面，6 月供应环比延续下降，国内周度库存去化。综合来看，原料成本坚 挺为托底，一级镍去库，但向上受到下游需求制约，整体仍篇震荡运行，关注镍矿升水 和一级镍库存表现。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 有色商品日报 | 仓减仓 手；现货方面，SMM 氧化铝价格回落至 3259 元/吨。铝锭现货升 | | 721 至 10141 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 水扩至 元/吨，对无锡 200 | 90 | 元/吨。佛山 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has shown continuous operational improvement, leading to an upward revision of FY26/27 EPS forecasts by 9% to HKD 0.83 and HKD 0.91, respectively, with a target price increase of 31% to HKD 14.92, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - FY25 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue down 17.5% year-on-year and net profit attributable to shareholders down 9% to HKD 5.9 billion, primarily due to better-than-expected gross margin performance [2] - The company proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.32 per share, resulting in an annual payout ratio of 87.8%, maintaining a high dividend distribution [2] Group 2: Revenue and Store Management - Revenue decline of 17.5% in FY25 occurred despite a 40% increase in gold prices, with a better performance in the second half of the fiscal year, where the decline was 15% compared to 20% in the first half [3] - The company opened 5 new image stores in mainland China and Hong Kong while closing underperforming stores, resulting in a 12% reduction in store count to 6,501, with same-store sales in mainland China down 19% [3] - New product lines, such as the Chuanfu series and the Palace Museum series, generated over HKD 4 billion in retail sales, showcasing the company's strong product innovation capabilities [3] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Control - Gross margin improved by 5.6 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from rising gold prices and an increased proportion of high-margin fixed-price products, while operating profit margin rose by 4.1 percentage points [4] - The company managed to control selling and administrative expenses, with a slight increase of 1.6 percentage points in expense ratio despite declining revenue [4] Group 4: Inventory Management - Total inventory decreased by 14% year-on-year to HKD 55.4 billion, but inventory turnover days increased by 73 days due to weak sales of weighted gold products and gemstone jewelry [5] - Operating cash flow from activities fell by 25% year-on-year to HKD 10.3 billion [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - For FY26, the company expects revenue growth in the low single digits year-on-year, with a potential decline in gross margin by 0.8-1.2 percentage points due to reduced contributions from rising gold prices, while operating profit margin is anticipated to decrease by 0.6-1 percentage points [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Insights - For FY2025 (April 1, 2024 - March 31, 2025), Deckers achieved revenue of $4.99 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, aligning with expectations [2][4] - Gross margin increased by 2.3 percentage points to 57.9%, primarily driven by a shift in product mix towards higher-margin products [2][4] - Q4 revenue was $1.02 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, with a gross margin increase of 0.5 percentage points to 56.7% [2][4] Revenue Breakdown - Annual performance was strong, but Q4 growth showed a significant slowdown [5] - By brand, UGG, HOKA, and other brands had annual revenues increasing by 13.1%, 23.6%, and 8.6% respectively, reaching $2.53 billion, $2.23 billion, and $220 million [5] - HOKA's revenue growth was robust across channels and regions, with DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) and wholesale channels growing by 23% and 24% respectively [5] - UGG's wholesale channel grew by 15% due to enhanced brand exposure through influential retailers, while DTC grew by 11% driven by global customer acquisition [5] Channel and Regional Performance - For the year, DTC and wholesale revenues were $2.13 billion and $2.86 billion, reflecting growth rates of 14.8% and 17.4% respectively [5] - Revenue from the U.S. and other regions was $3.19 billion and $1.80 billion, with growth rates of 11.3% and 26.3% respectively [5] - In Q4, HOKA and UGG revenues grew by 10% and 4% year-on-year, with HOKA facing challenges from weak market demand and UGG impacted by insufficient inventory of key styles [5] Inventory and Cost Implications - At the end of FY2025, the company's inventory increased by 4.4% to $500 million, indicating a relatively healthy inventory level [5] - Tariff uncertainties are expected to increase sales costs by up to $150 million in FY2026, with strategies in place to mitigate some of the impacts [5] Performance Guidance - The company expects Q1 FY2026 revenue to be between $890 million and $910 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.8% to 10.3%, with HOKA anticipated to grow at least in the double digits and UGG in the mid-single digits [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales for Q1 fiscal 2025 were $1,350 million, down 0.9% year-over-year, resulting in a negative 3.7% comparable sales (comp) [13][26] - Operating income was $69.3 million, with diluted EPS at $0.68 and adjusted EPS at $0.76 [30] - Gross margin improved to 34%, a 60 basis point increase from the previous year, driven by merchandise margin expansion and favorable shrink [28][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Footwear and apparel were the strongest categories, remaining roughly flat year-over-year, while sports and recreation also showed improvement [14][26] - Athletic footwear posted a positive 4.5% comp, led by brands like Nike and Brooks, while the Jordan brand exceeded internal expectations [27][19] - Outdoor category faced challenges, particularly in ammunition sales, but fishing and firearms showed solid increases [14][28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company observed increased foot traffic from customers with household incomes over $100,000, indicating a shift towards value-seeking behavior among higher-income consumers [12][37] - E-commerce sales increased by 10% for the quarter, with penetration growing to over 10% [17][26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on new store expansion, planning to open 20 to 25 new stores in fiscal 2025, with five locations opened in Q1 [15][16] - E-commerce growth is a key pillar, with efforts to enhance the online shopping experience and expand product offerings [17][18] - The company is leveraging technology, including RFID and handheld devices, to improve inventory accuracy and customer experience [21][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about navigating tariff impacts and consumer behavior, emphasizing the importance of value in a challenging economic environment [7][25] - The company is adjusting its guidance to account for various tariff scenarios, with sales expectations ranging from $5.97 billion to $6.26 billion [35][36] - Management noted the fragility of the U.S. consumer environment but remains confident in long-term growth strategies [24][25] Other Important Information - The company returned over $100 million of free cash flow to investors in Q1, including share repurchases and dividends [34] - Strategic actions taken to mitigate tariff impacts included pulling forward $85 million in domestic inventory receipts at pre-tariff prices [31][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Retention of higher-income consumers - Management noted that retention among higher-income consumers has been strong, with these customers shopping more frequently across various product categories [41][42] Question: Performance in May and impact of Jordan brand - Management indicated that while May showed a slight decline, the Jordan brand continues to perform well, and they remain optimistic about Q2 due to upcoming shopping events [45][46] Question: Health of the consumer and impact of weather - Management attributed softness in certain categories to weather conditions and noted that consumer behavior is cautious, with a focus on value [52][53] Question: Tariff outlook for fiscal 2026 - Management emphasized the importance of diversifying sourcing to mitigate future tariff impacts, but refrained from speculating on specific outcomes [80][81] Question: Gross margin guidance - Management explained that gross margin guidance remains unchanged due to effective inventory management and partnerships with suppliers to mitigate cost increases [56][63]