Economic Forecast - GDP growth forecasts for Q4 2025 to Q4 2028 have been revised up by 0.1pct, 0.5pct, 0.1pct, and 0.1pct to 1.7%, 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9% respectively[2] - The unemployment rate for 2027 has been lowered by 0.1pct to 4.2%[2] - PCE inflation forecasts for Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 have been reduced by 0.1pct and 0.2pct to 2.9% and 2.4% respectively[2] FOMC Meeting Insights - The December FOMC meeting resulted in a 25bps rate cut, with a 9-3 vote, indicating a slight hawkish stance[4] - Six FOMC members opposed the rate cut, reflecting a more hawkish sentiment overall[4] - The Fed announced a "light expansion" of its balance sheet, purchasing $40 billion in short-term Treasury bills monthly[4] Market Reactions - Powell's dovish comments during the press conference led to a rise in gold, U.S. stocks, and commodities, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index fell[3] - The market is pricing in a 22% chance of a rate cut by January, 78% by April, and 221% by December 2026[5] Risks and Considerations - Risks include a faster-than-expected decline in U.S. employment and prolonged high interest rates potentially leading to liquidity crises[5] - Inflation risks are seen as significantly weakened, while GDP downside risks have eased[2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets focus on the Fed's policy trends and the expected appointment of the next Fed Chair. The market anticipates more aggressive rate cuts if Hassett is elected, but there is uncertainty due to Powell's term, economic factors, and inflation. Asset prices will show structural differentiation. Domestically, the economy shows marginal improvement, but the foundation for growth is not yet solid, and attention should be paid to the pace of policy implementation [2]. - The Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are interpreted as "QE - like" measures, which are negative for the US dollar index. The RMB exchange rate is affected by US economic data, the appointment of the next Fed Chair, and domestic economic policies. Seasonal settlement effects may support the RMB's appreciation [4]. - The current inflation data supports low interest rates, and the bond market has rebounded. Although there are rumors of mortgage subsidy policies, the bond market reaction is limited. The medium - term bond market still has room for growth [5]. - The container shipping market on the European route has a mix of long and short factors. There is a possibility of price cuts in late December, and the price of the 02 contract may be pushed up due to the shipping companies' price - holding intentions [6][7]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, platinum and palladium are expected to have their price centers lifted in the medium and long term, while copper prices will be mainly driven by fundamentals after the Fed's rate cut. Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the long term, while alumina is expected to be weak. Zinc will maintain a high - level shock, tin will be in a wide - range shock, and lithium carbonate will have a short - term callback pressure [11][13][15]. - In the energy and chemical market, oil prices are affected by the US - Venezuela tension and the Fed's rate cut. LPG will maintain a shock, PTA - PX will follow the weakening of demand and commodity sentiment, MEG - bottle chips will face a decline in terminal demand, and urea will be in a range between fundamentals and policies [34][37][40]. - In the agricultural products market, the supply and demand of live pigs in the peak season need to be verified, the oilseeds market is in a positive spread, the oil market will continue to be sorted, cotton prices may have room to rise, sugar prices will remain weak, egg prices have a long - term over - capacity problem, apple prices will remain strong, and jujube prices will be in a low - level shock [73][74][76]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the market focuses on the appointment of the next Fed Chair. China's November CPI rose year - on - year, and the real estate sector had a significant rise in the afternoon session [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are negative for the US dollar index. Attention should be paid to US economic data and domestic economic policies [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rebounded, and the current inflation data supports low interest rates. The medium - term bond market still has room for growth [5]. - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: The market has a mix of long and short factors, and there is a possibility of price cuts in late December [6][7]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: Prices oscillated and corrected. The Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are factors, and in the medium and long term, the price centers are expected to be lifted [11]. - **Gold and Silver**: The market generally rose, and in the short term, it is expected to be in shock, while in the long term, it is expected to rise [12][13]. - **Copper**: Prices were strongly sorted, and after the Fed's rate cut, they were mainly driven by fundamentals [14][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the long term, alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Prices maintained a high - level shock [17][18]. - **Tin**: Prices were affected by the conflict in Congo (Kinshasa) and are expected to be in a wide - range shock [18][19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is short - term callback pressure, but in the long term, it has the value of bottom - fishing allocation [21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The fundamentals have not improved, and the prices are expected to be weak [22][23]. - **Lead**: Prices are expected to be in shock, with support at the bottom [24]. Steel - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices rebounded slightly, and the overall market is expected to be in a range shock, with the rebar in the range of 3000 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil in the range of 3200 - 3500 [25][26]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices were affected by real - estate news, and the downward space is expected to be limited [27][28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coking coal prices are under pressure in the short term, while coke may face inventory accumulation pressure [29][30][31]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Demand is gradually weakening, and prices are expected to be weakly shocked [32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Prices were lifted due to the US - Venezuela tension, and the Fed's rate cut has a limited impact on prices [34][35][36]. - **LPG**: Prices maintained a shock, with a relatively stable supply and demand situation [37][38][39]. - **PTA - PX**: Prices followed the weakening of demand and commodity sentiment, and the supply - demand structure is relatively good in the energy and chemical sector [40][41][42]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: Terminal demand declined comprehensively, and supply - side negative feedback began to appear. Prices are expected to be short - term in shock and long - term in a downward trend [43][44][46]. - **Urea**: Transactions weakened, and prices are expected to be in a range shock [47][48]. - **PP**: The spot market's pessimistic sentiment dragged down prices, and further short - selling is not recommended [49][50][51]. - **PE**: The supply - increase and demand - decrease pattern continued, and prices are expected to maintain a bottom - level shock [52][53][54]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Prices were weakly shocked, with different supply - demand situations for pure benzene and styrene [55][56]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices were in a narrow - range shock, with a stable supply and a mixed demand situation [57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cracking spread was low, and the fundamentals have improved, but it is recommended to wait and see [58]. - **Asphalt**: Prices fluctuated in a narrow range, and attention should be paid to the winter - storage policy [59][60]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rebounded due to weather disturbances and geopolitical conflicts, and are expected to be in a range shock [61][62]. - **Soda Ash and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash prices are under pressure due to over - supply expectations; glass prices are affected by cold - repair expectations and inventory levels; caustic soda prices are expected to be weakly shocked [65][66][67]. - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp futures prices reached a four - month high, and both pulp and offset paper are recommended to wait and see [67][68]. - **Log**: Newly registered warehouse receipts suppressed the price, and it is recommended to participate with caution [69][70]. - **Propylene**: Prices were weakly shocked, with a relatively loose supply - demand situation [71][72]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The supply and demand in the peak season need to be verified, and the long - term trend can be bullish, but the short - term is mainly based on fundamentals [73]. - **Oilseeds**: The positive spread continued, and the market is affected by import and domestic supply - demand situations [74][75]. - **Oils**: The MPOB report was negative, and prices are expected to continue to be sorted [76]. - **Cotton**: Prices broke through the pressure level, and if they hold steady, there may be further upward space [77]. - **Sugar**: Prices remained weak [78][79]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still in excess, and short - term rebounds can be lightly speculated [80]. - **Apples**: The near - month contract was strong, and the overall market remained strong [81][82]. - **Jujubes**: Prices were in a low - level shock, and the short - term downward space may be limited [83][84].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent policy meeting results were less hawkish than market expectations, with the announcement of monthly purchases of $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds starting December 12, which is expected to provide relief to Asian markets and boost various assets [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Analysts believe that Asian currencies are likely to benefit from a weaker dollar, and under the backdrop of increased liquidity from the Fed, short-term bonds and high-grade credit bonds will also benefit, along with cyclical stocks and exporter stocks [1][2]. - The FOMC meeting concluded without major concerns, and the upward revision of GDP forecasts for 2026, along with a downward revision of inflation forecasts, is seen as positive for the stock market [1][2]. - The market is betting on further rate cuts from the Fed, as even Powell's optimistic outlook on the economy suggests another rate cut, influenced by external pressures such as Trump's criticism of the Fed [1][2][3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed's decision to lower rates and the announcement of short-term bond purchases signal a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, which is expected to support risk appetite across Asia [3][5][6]. - The Fed's actions are interpreted as a move towards stabilizing the labor market while maintaining conditions to suppress inflation, with Powell indicating that current inflation is primarily due to tariff impacts [4][5]. - The Fed's liquidity management measures, while not classified as quantitative easing, are seen as a signal of improved liquidity, which is crucial for driving asset prices [5][6]. Group 3: Currency and Bond Market Implications - The expectation of a weaker dollar is likely to support Asian currencies, with specific currencies like the Korean won and Indonesian rupiah expected to perform better due to their attractive valuations [3][5]. - The announcement of purchasing short-term government bonds is expected to lower short-term yields across the region, benefiting Asian bonds and creating a selective stock market environment [2][3]. - The Fed's approach is viewed as a controlled normalization rather than a full-scale easing, indicating that Asian assets will remain sensitive to any data that challenges the Fed's optimistic view on inflation [3][6].

专题：美联储再降息25基点 3人反对 特朗普仍不满意 鲍威尔排除加息可能 当地时间12月10日下午，美联储12月议息会议宣布降息25个基点，为今年以来的第三次降息。本次降息 后，美联储基准利率下降至3.50%-3.75%区间。最新公布的经济预测摘要上调美国2025-2028年的经济增 长，最新的利率点阵图则暗示2026年和2027年或各仅降息一次；美联储同时宣布自2025年12月12日起， 每月购入400亿美元美国国债。 本次降息符合预期，昨夜美股主要指数收红，美债收益率最初大幅上涨，但随后回落，美元指数则震荡 下行。 根据美联储本次会议决议及会后鲍威尔发言的重点，摩根资产管理认为： 一、本次美联储降息符合预期，但后续展望分歧 美联储本次将联邦基金目标利率下调0.25%至3.50%-3.75%，符合市场预期。然而，未来政策利率走向 分歧加大：本次会议施密德和古尔斯比委员投票反对降息，而米兰委员认为应降50个基点。此外，在19 名美联储议息会议委员中，除了12名有投票权的成员外，有4名明年可能因轮换而拥有投票权的委员表 明未来不应再降息。 二、美联储重启购债略超预期 随着资金市场从足量转向充裕，委员会认为当前已 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program to inject liquidity into the market, following recent volatility in the $12 trillion repurchase market, despite emphasizing that this is not quantitative easing (QE) [1][4][5]. Group 1: RMP Program Details - The New York Fed announced a plan to purchase $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities over the next 30 days to maintain adequate reserve levels, marking a significant shift in the Fed's balance sheet management strategy [2][3]. - The RMP will adjust its purchasing scale based on expected trends in Fed liabilities and seasonal fluctuations, with the first plan to be published on December 11 [2][4]. - The Fed's statement indicates that reserve balances have fallen to adequate levels, prompting the need for short-term Treasury purchases [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Despite the Fed's insistence that RMP is not QE, the market has reacted as if it is, with increases in U.S. Treasuries, equities, Bitcoin, gold, and oil, while the dollar weakened [1][4]. - The liquidity injection is expected to quickly lower the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), while the Federal Funds Rate (FF) will respond more slowly, creating significant arbitrage opportunities for investors [5][6]. - Historical context from 2019 suggests that similar liquidity injections led to rapid changes in SOFR, indicating that the current market may experience similar dynamics [6][9]. Group 3: Comparison with Historical Context - The RMP's scale is expected to be lower than in 2019, with anticipated monthly purchases around 0.15% of GDP, compared to 0.2-0.3% during the previous episode [9][10]. - The current liquidity situation is not as severe as in 2019, suggesting that the Fed's response may be less aggressive this time [9][10]. - The mechanism of cash injection leading to rapid SOFR changes while FF lags has been validated in previous instances, indicating a consistent pattern despite the differing contexts [10].

由于美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的讲话并未像市场预期的那样鹰派、且美联储宣布自12月12日起每月购买400亿美元短期国债，美元下跌，美债及贵 金属则应声走高。 数据显示，美元指数(DXY)跌0.59%，报98.64;Bloomberg美元现货指数收跌0.4%，创9月16日以来最大单日跌幅。美债方面，各期限美债收益率全线下跌， 从数月高位回落。截至发稿，对美联储政策敏感的两年期美债收益率跌至3.524%，10年期美债收益率则跌至4.14%。随着美元和美债收益率走低，贵金属走 高。截至发稿，现货黄金小幅上涨至4232.90美元/盎司，现货白银涨至61.90美元/盎司。 美联储联邦公开市场委员会周三如期降息，以9比3的投票结果决定将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至3.5%-3.75%区间。该委员会还在声明中微调措辞，暗示对 未来降息时点的判断存在更大不确定性。 鲍威尔在利率决议公布后的新闻发布会上表示，目前的政策调整有助于稳定正在趋弱的劳动力市场，同时维持足够紧缩的条件以压制通胀。他表示："随着 关税影响逐步消退，此次进一步政策正常化应能支撑就业，并让通胀重新向2%的目标回落。" 对于通胀，鲍威尔强调，目前通胀率超过 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced its third consecutive interest rate cut this year, lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, indicating increasing divergence among policymakers regarding future policy paths [1] - The FOMC's decision was made with a 9-3 vote, highlighting disagreements among officials about the balance between a weakening labor market and persistent inflation [1][2] - The Fed plans to purchase $40 billion in Treasury bills monthly starting December 12 to rebuild bank reserves that have declined significantly during the balance sheet reduction [2] Group 2 - Economic forecasts show that officials expect only one rate cut in both 2026 and 2027, with a split among officials on the necessity of further cuts, as seven officials favor maintaining rates while eight support at least two cuts [3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, up from 4.1% in June, while core inflation remains above target at 2.8%, contributing to policy uncertainty [2] - External political factors are influencing discussions, with President Trump indicating he will announce a successor for the Fed chair early next year, raising concerns about the independence of the central bank [3]

Core Viewpoint - The next Federal Reserve chair chosen by President Donald Trump is expected to be a dovish figure, leading to potential interest rate cuts after Powell's departure, which may weaken the dollar and not aid long-term rates [1] Group 1 - Gundlach believes that Powell's upcoming rate cut may be his last, as he appears more focused on rising unemployment [1] - Gundlach expresses skepticism about the need for quantitative easing, noting that the private credit market is absorbing a significant amount of supply [1] - Gundlach does not consider this a "hawkish rate cut" [1]

Market Reaction - Bitcoin (BTC) spiked above $94,000 before retreating to around $92,000 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on the labor market and inflation [1][2] - Ether (ETH) showed relative strength, rising about 1.1% to wobble above $3,300 during the same period [2] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate by 25 basis points and announced plans to purchase short-term Treasury bills, targeting around $40 billion in purchases over the next month [4] - Powell indicated that the Fed's policy is now within a neutral range and emphasized the need to wait for more data before making further adjustments [3][6] Analyst Insights - Analysts noted that the Fed's rate cut does not signal the start of an aggressive easing cycle, with future moves dependent on inflation and labor market data [6] - The communication from policymakers stressed caution amid signs of slowing economic momentum [6]

fed rate cut december, fed rate cut. Photo by BeInCrypto The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50%–3.75%, delivering the cut markets overwhelmingly expected — but without offering clear momentum toward further easing.  Today’s decision was non-unanimous, reinforcing the uncertainty that has dominated investor sentiment over the past week. Guidance Is the Market Focus, Not the Cut The FOMC acknowledged slowing job gains, a higher unemployment trend thro ...