1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean/meal market has mixed long - and short - term factors. In the short term, the USDA's reduction in planting area is bullish for CBOT soybeans, but the global protein raw material supply surplus limits the upward momentum of soybean import costs. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, with potential inventory reduction in September. [2][4] - The fundamentals of the oil market are supported by factors such as the US biodiesel policy, limited palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia, and low inventory in India and Southeast Asia. However, the upside is restricted by factors like annual - level oil production increase expectations and uncertain RVO rules. [9] - The price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline in the future, considering factors such as increasing import supply, high spot import profit, and expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season. [11] - The cotton market has a bullish market atmosphere but bearish fundamentals. In the short term, it may continue to fluctuate at a high level. [14] - The egg market may experience short - term fluctuations, and in the medium term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after a rebound. [17] - For the hog market, medium - and long - term contracts are recommended to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to inter - month reverse spread opportunities for far - month contracts. [20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/Meal Important Information - On Tuesday night, US soybeans rose about 3% from the low. The USDA unexpectedly cut the planting area by 2.5 million acres, but the high yield per acre limited the increase. Rapeseed meal reversed from weakness to strength, driving soybean meal up. The Ministry of Commerce's anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed requires a 75% deposit for imports. The domestic soybean meal spot basis was stable on Monday, with good trading and提货, and the downstream inventory days increased slightly to 8.37 days. Last week, 2.1775 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China, and 2.3695 million tons are expected to be crushed this week. [2] - Rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to be favorable in the next two weeks. Brazilian soybean premiums are stable after rising. US soybeans are undervalued and in a supply - surplus state, with no clear directional driver, and may test previous lows. The import cost of domestic soybeans is rising slightly due to a single supply source. [2] Trading Strategy - In the short term, the USDA's significant reduction in planting area is bullish for CBOT soybeans. However, due to the global protein raw material supply surplus, the upward momentum of soybean import costs is insufficient. It is expected to maintain a stable and slightly rising trend. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, and the spot end may start to reduce inventory in September. It is recommended to buy on dips at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, as well as Sino - US tariff progress and new supply - side drivers. [4] Oil Important Information - From August 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the same period last month. [6] - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy in 2026, but it may be difficult to start in January, and a series of tests will be carried out, which may take up to eight months. [6] - In July, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.812417 million tons, a 7.09% month - on - month increase; inventory was 2.113278 million tons, a 4.02% month - on - month increase, lower than Reuters' expectation of 2.25 million tons; imports were 61,039 tons, a 12.82% month - on - month decrease; and exports were 1.309059 million tons, a 3.82% month - on - month increase. [6] - On Tuesday, domestic palm oil continued to rise. Foreign capital increased net long positions in the three major oils during the day. Stable demand from importing countries and low inventory in Southeast Asia provided continuous bullish factors. Rapeseed oil rose sharply due to the anti - dumping preliminary ruling but fell after some profits were realized at night. The domestic spot basis was stable at a low level. [7][8] Trading Strategy - Fundamentally, the US biodiesel policy draft, limited palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia, low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asia, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the oil price center. If demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production is at a neutral level from July to September, the origin inventory may remain stable, supporting a strong and volatile origin price. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to the B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upside is restricted by factors such as annual - level oil production increase expectations, high palm oil production in the near term, undetermined RVO rules, and macro and demand adjustments in major importing countries. It should be viewed as a volatile market. [9] Sugar Important Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The closing price of the January contract was 5,608 yuan/ton, a 0.63% increase from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi and Yunnan increased, and the mainstream quotation of processing sugar factories also increased. Brazil exported 109,400 tons of sugar in the first week of August, with an average daily export of 18,200 tons, a 2% increase from the average daily export in August last year. [10] Trading Strategy - In the second half of the year, the increasing import supply will squeeze the sales space of domestic sugar. The spot import profit outside the quota has been at the highest level in the past five years, and the futures valuation is high. Considering the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season, if the external market price does not rebound significantly, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline. [11] Cotton Important Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded. The closing price of the January contract was 13,980 yuan/ton, a 0.72% increase from the previous trading day. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton increased, and the basis was 995 yuan/ton. On August 12, China and the US announced the continuation of suspending reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. [13] Trading Strategy - The suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures between China and the US for 90 days has strengthened the domestic commodity market. Fundamentally, the downstream consumption is average, the operating rate is at a low level, and the cotton inventory reduction speed has slowed down. With a bullish market atmosphere but bearish fundamentals, it may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. [14] Eggs Important Information - The domestic egg price was mostly stable, with a slight increase in a few areas. The average price in the main production areas rose 0.01 yuan to 3.03 yuan/jin. The supply was mostly sufficient, traders actively sold goods, and the downstream digestion speed was average, with a slight improvement in the digestion of low - priced eggs. Traders were cautious and mostly saw stable prices. [16] Trading Strategy - The continuous increase in newly - hatched chickens and limited culling of laying hens have led to a large supply scale. The egg price in the peak season is weaker than expected, and the futures price has a premium. The near - month contracts are particularly weak. However, with the expectation of a spot price rebound and the risk of fluctuations due to high positions at a low level, the futures market may fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after a rebound. [17] Hogs Important Information - The domestic hog price was mostly stable, with slight fluctuations in some areas. The average price in Henan rose 0.04 yuan to 13.73 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan remained unchanged at 13.31 yuan/kg. Some breeding groups in the north and southwest regions intended to reduce supply and raise prices, which may drive a slight increase in the hog price. In some areas, the supply and demand were weak, restricting each other, and the price may remain stable. [19] Trading Strategy - The continuous weakening of the spot price is in contrast to the futures price. As the trading average weight decreases, the release of current inventory will help relieve the supply pressure in the third and fourth quarters, and the high fat - to - standard price difference provides room for future pressure on hog storage. It is recommended to buy on dips for medium - and long - term contracts but not to chase high prices. For far - month contracts, attention should be paid to inter - month reverse spread opportunities due to the difficult - to - falsify expectation of policy - driven production capacity reduction. [20]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the extension of the "tariff truce" between the US and China for an additional 90 days, which aims to stabilize trade relations and create a positive atmosphere for further negotiations [1][3][4] - The US will continue to suspend the implementation of a 24% reciprocal tariff for 90 days while retaining the remaining 10% tariff, and China will also suspend its 24% tariff on US goods for the same period [1][4] - Analysts suggest that this extension indicates a phase of easing in US-China economic relations and provides more time to address unresolved issues [1][3][4] Group 2 - The recent negotiations have led to a clearer understanding of each country's demands and bottom lines, which is beneficial for controlling conflicts [4] - The extension of the tariff truce allows for continued imports of key products like electronics, clothing, and toys into the US at relatively lower tariffs, especially ahead of the critical holiday season [4][5] - Both sides are signaling a desire to reduce trade tensions, with China suspending measures against certain US entities and the US considering easing some export restrictions [5][6] Group 3 - Future negotiations are expected to focus on the core issue of tariffs, including discussions on how to achieve full or partial reductions of the suspended 24% tariffs [7] - Key sectors such as steel, aluminum, automotive, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals are likely to be focal points in the upcoming talks [7] - The US may seek increased Chinese investment and procurement, while China will push for the removal of unreasonable investment and technology restrictions imposed by the US [7][8] Group 4 - Despite the "tariff truce," trade flows between the US and China have been negatively impacted, with US imports from China dropping by approximately 15% to $165 billion in the first half of the year, and US exports to China decreasing by about 20% [7][8] - China is actively diversifying its markets and optimizing its foreign trade structure to mitigate external uncertainties, which may help maintain export stability [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by Trump regarding the consideration of additional tariffs on Chinese goods has raised significant concerns about the future of US-China trade relations [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Negotiations - Previous US-China economic talks had shown promise, with Trump initially expressing approval and hinting at a visit to China to further bilateral trade relations [3]. - However, Trump's subsequent demands for unreasonable conditions have escalated tensions, reversing the previously improving atmosphere of negotiations [3]. - The US's unilateral adjustments to tariff rates in the Japan-US trade agreement highlight a pattern of unpredictability in trade agreements, which may affect future negotiations with China [3]. Group 2: Impact of Tariff Threats - Trump's proposed tariffs would significantly disrupt the ongoing US-China trade talks, leading to increased costs for Chinese exporters and higher prices for American consumers [5]. - The interconnectedness of global supply chains means that escalating trade tensions could have far-reaching consequences, potentially destabilizing global trade and affecting economic recovery [5][7]. - The potential for economic friction to spill over into other areas of bilateral relations adds complexity to the US-China relationship [5]. Group 3: Global Economic Context - The rise of trade protectionism poses challenges to the global economy, and while competition exists between the US and China, there remains substantial room for cooperation on global issues [7]. - The US's tariff threats are seen as unilateral actions that contradict the principles of economic globalization, which emphasizes interdependence among nations [7]. - Stability in US-China trade relations is crucial not only for the two countries but also for the global economy, necessitating rational dialogue and cooperation to foster a healthier trade environment [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The market sentiment of agricultural commodity futures is affected by various factors, including international policies, trade relations, and supply - demand situations of different products. Short - term price fluctuations are significant, and each product has different trends in the short, medium, and intraday periods [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.豆粕（M） - **View**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, reference view is weakly volatile [5]. - **Core Logic**: Trump's tweet boosted US soybean prices, while domestic soybean meal futures prices fell due to loose funds. The industrial chain environment remains unchanged, and short - term Sino - US trade relations affect market sentiment [5]. 3.2.棕榈油（P） - **View**: Intraday view is strongly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, reference view is strongly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: MPOB's report shows strong Malaysian palm oil exports and lower - than - expected inventory. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy may affect export supply, causing short - term price strength [7]. 3.3. Other Related Information - For different products (such as soybean meal 2601, soybean oil 2601, palm 2509), their short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are affected by factors like import arrival rhythm, customs clearance, oil refinery operation rhythm, biofuel policies, inventory, and production and export in major producing countries [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean and meal market is mixed with both long and short factors. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - scale upward oscillation due to a single supply source. The direction of Sino - US trade relations and new variables on the supply side need to be monitored [3]. - The oil market is supported by factors such as the US biodiesel policy draft, low inventory in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. However, the upside space is restricted by multiple factors, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures may continue to decline in the future, considering the increasing import supply, high import profit, and the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season [12]. - The cotton market is under short - term bearish pressure due to the weak downstream consumption, low operating rate, and the failure of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement to be finalized [15]. - The egg market may experience short - term fluctuations, but in the medium - term, opportunities for short - selling after a rebound should be focused on due to the large supply scale [17]. - For the pig market, medium and long - term contracts are recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to inter - month reverse spread opportunities for far - month contracts [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/Meals - **Important Information**: Due to Trump's call for China to buy soybeans, US soybeans rose while domestic soybean meal declined. The domestic soybean meal spot basis was stable on Monday. The soybean crushing volume is expected to increase this week, with a significant increase in soybean inventory and a slight decrease in soybean meal inventory last week. The US soybean is undervalued and in a state of oversupply, and the domestic soybean import cost is rising slightly. Attention should be paid to the USDA monthly report on Tuesday evening [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Against the background of global protein raw material supply surplus, the upward momentum of soybean import cost is insufficient. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, and it is expected that the spot end may start to destock in September. It is recommended to go long at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 09 contracts [5]. Oils - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared with the same period last month. Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy in 2026, but it may be difficult to start in January. Malaysia's palm oil production in July increased by 7.09% month - on - month, and the inventory increased by 4.02% [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The oil market is supported by multiple factors, but the upside space is restricted. The palm oil market may maintain stable inventory in the 7 - 9 months and has a rising expectation in the fourth quarter due to the B50 policy, but it should be viewed as fluctuating [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi and Yunnan remained unchanged, and the mainstream quotes of processing sugar factories varied. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped increased slightly. In July, Brazil's sugar exports to China decreased [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the continuous increase in import supply in the second half of the year, the sales space of domestic sugar is squeezed. The futures price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton decreased slightly. The operating rates of spinning and weaving factories declined, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The Sino - US economic and trade agreement has not been finalized, and the downstream consumption is weak. The cotton market is short - term bearish [15]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national egg prices were mostly stable, with a few areas rising slightly. The supply was generally sufficient, and the downstream digestion speed was average [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply of eggs is large, and the egg price in the peak season is weaker than expected. The short - term market may fluctuate, and medium - term attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [17]. Pigs - **Important Information**: The domestic pig prices showed a mixed trend, with some areas rising, some falling, and some remaining stable. The market supply and demand are in a game, and the pig prices may be mainly stable [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price is weak while the futures price is strong. Medium and long - term contracts are recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to inter - month reverse spread opportunities for far - month contracts [20].

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the potential extension of the 90-day suspension of the 24% tariffs agreed upon during the high-level trade talks between China and the U.S. in May, with the deadline approaching on August 12 [1][2] - U.S. President Trump has not made a clear statement regarding the extension of the tariff suspension, raising concerns about a possible escalation in tensions between the two economies [1][2] - China's Foreign Ministry expressed hope for positive outcomes based on the consensus reached by the leaders of both countries, emphasizing the importance of mutual respect and reciprocity in negotiations [1] Group 2 - Trump's recent social media post suggested that China is concerned about soybean shortages and urged China to significantly increase its orders of U.S. soybeans to reduce the trade deficit [1] - Despite Trump's claims, analysts indicate that there is little evidence to suggest that China is worried about soybean shortages, and China could source from South America if trade relations do not improve [2] - The U.S. government data shows that as of the end of July, China had not placed orders for the new season's soybeans, reflecting ongoing tensions [1][2] Group 3 - The U.S. administration is considering imposing new tariffs on Chinese imports in response to China's purchase of Russian oil, complicating the trade relationship further [2] - China's embassy in the U.S. defended its trade with Russia as compliant with international law, opposing U.S. unilateral sanctions and emphasizing that there are no winners in a tariff war [2] - Since May, the U.S. and China have held three rounds of trade talks in various locations, with the latest consensus being to continue the suspension of the 24% tariffs and corresponding countermeasures for another 90 days [2]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Palm oil is likely to rise in the short term but has limited upside potential, facing resistance at the [9200] price level for the 2509 contract. The tight supply situation in Southeast Asia has eased quickly with the arrival of the production season, but high initial yields have raised concerns about over - production. The Indonesian B40 policy has been effective, and domestic near - term arrivals are increasing, while far - term purchases are limited. Overall, the inventory build - up in Southeast Asia is slow, and the palm oil 2509 and 2601 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly. [3][4] - Soybean oil is also likely to rise in the short term with limited upside, facing resistance at the [8500] price level for the y2509 contract. South American soybean export potential is expected to weaken after the third quarter, and the premium has an upward trend. The good condition of US soybeans, the 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff agreement, and the pessimistic outlook for US soybean exports put pressure on CBOT soybeans. Domestically, near - term soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the overall supply of soybeans and soybean oil in the third quarter is expected to be loose. However, recent Indian purchases of Chinese soybean oil have improved short - term demand expectations, and the supply in the fourth quarter is uncertain due to Sino - US trade relations. [3] - Rapeseed oil is likely to rise in the short term with limited upside, facing resistance at the 9800 price level for the O1509 contract. The global rapeseed inventory pressure in the 2024/25 season is limited, providing short - term support for international rapeseed prices. The expected recovery of global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season may suppress the price. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and near - term supply is loose, but rapeseed purchases after July have decreased year - on - year, and far - term supply is uncertain due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. Overall, rapeseed oil shows a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. [3] Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, the domestic three - major oil indices continued to diverge. Soybean oil continued to rise, while palm oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated widely. As of August 8, the closing price of the 2509 soybean oil contract was 8880 yuan/ton, the 2509 palm oil contract was 8888 yuan/ton, and the 01509 rapeseed oil contract was 9571 yuan/ton. [94] - The BMD crude palm oil futures prices in Malaysia fluctuated widely this week, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. CBOT soybeans fluctuated sideways, with the center of gravity remaining basically unchanged. [14][34] Supply and Demand Analysis Palm Oil - In Malaysia, different institutions' data show that palm oil exports in July decreased compared to June, while production increased. For example, ITS data shows a 6.7% decrease in exports, and SPPOM data shows a 7.07% increase in production. Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased significantly, and inventory decreased. The reference price and export tax of Indonesian crude palm oil in August have been raised. [17][18] - India reduced the import tariff on crude edible oils in May, which led to an increase in imports in June - July. However, the palm oil import volume in July decreased by 10% month - on - month to 858,000 tons. [29] Soybean and Soybean Oil - The USDA's July supply - demand report estimated the 2024/25 South American soybean production. Brazil is expected to reach a record high of 169 million tons, and Argentina is expected to be 49.9 million tons. Brazil's export peak has passed, and the premium is expected to rise seasonally. [69] - As of August 3, the US soybean's flowering rate, pod - setting rate, and good - to - excellent rate are relatively good, and the drought - affected area is about 3%. The old - crop US soybean exports are basically completed, and the 24/25 annual export is expected to be 50.3 million tons. [40] - Domestically, the near - term soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the overall supply of soybeans and soybean oil in the third quarter is expected to be loose. However, recent Indian purchases of Chinese soybean oil have improved short - term demand expectations. [96] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The 2024/25 global rapeseed supply has tightened marginally, with significant impacts in Canada and the EU. The USDA expects a recovery in production in the 2025/26 season, and the global rapeseed stock - to - use ratio will rise slightly to 10.64%. [77] - Canada's Statistics Bureau predicts a decline in the rapeseed planting area in 2025, and the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture estimates a 200,000 - ton reduction in the 2025/26 rapeseed production. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and near - term supply is loose, but far - term supply is uncertain due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. [77][82] Industry Chain Operation Suggestions - Traders with palm oil or soybean oil inventory should seek to sell at high prices, while those without inventory should seek to buy at low prices to build inventory. Oil - using enterprises should pay attention to price changes when purchasing raw materials. [5][7] - For rapeseed oil, traders with inventory should also seek to sell at high prices, and those without inventory should seek to buy at low prices. Oil - using enterprises need to purchase raw materials and are worried about price increases. [7] Cost - Profit and Inventory - The import costs and import profits of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are provided in the report, showing certain fluctuations. [111][113][118] - As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.3611 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons from the previous week, with a year - on - year increase of 234,300 tons. Among them, soybean and rapeseed oil inventories increased slightly, while palm oil inventory decreased slightly. [120][121][122] CFTC Positions and Warehouse Receipts - CBOT soybean and soybean oil non - commercial net long positions and their proportions are presented, showing certain trends. - The warehouse receipt volumes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil as of August 7, 2025, are provided. [136][143][145]

Group 1: Trade Dynamics - China's rare earth magnet exports to the US surged to 352.8 tons in June, a 660% increase from May, indicating a significant shift in trade dynamics [1] - The US Department of Defense invested $400 million to acquire a 15% stake in rare earth company MP Materials and pressured Apple to enter a $500 million partnership with the company [1] - The US, in collaboration with Japan, India, and Australia, launched the "Quad Critical Minerals Initiative" to secure domestic production of critical minerals, aiming to diversify its rare earth supply chain [1] Group 2: China's Strategic Position - China holds a dominant position in the global rare earth industry, being the only country capable of providing a full range of rare earth products and possessing superior mining resources [2] - China's export control measures allow it to dictate the terms of rare earth sales, maintaining a strategy of "allowing civilian use, prohibiting military use," which strengthens its market influence [2] - The increase in exports to the US can be seen as a strategic move to enhance China's impact on the US market [2] Group 3: US Trade Policies - The US imposed a ban on oil imports from China, reflecting a unilateral and protectionist approach to trade that disrupts global trade order [4] - The ban may have short-term effects on China's oil trade, but China has diversified its energy strategy and established stable partnerships with multiple oil-producing countries [4] - The contradiction in US policies, relying on China for rare earths while imposing sanctions on oil, highlights a short-sighted approach to international trade [6] Group 4: International Relations - The US actions exacerbate tensions in US-China relations, undermining the principle of cooperation for sustainable development in a globalized economy [7] - The US's trade practices not only harm China's core interests but also pose potential negative impacts on global economic stability and development [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: A-Shares in China - **Current Sentiment**: Investor sentiment in the A-share market remained flat, with a weighted Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) at 95% as of July 30, 2025, unchanged from the previous period [1][5][7] - **Trading Volume**: Average daily turnover for A-shares decreased by 7% to RMB 1,675 billion, while equity futures and Northbound turnover dropped by 9% to RMB 264 billion and 10% to RMB 107 billion, respectively [1][2] Core Insights - **Market Caution**: Investors are cautioned against underpricing the risks associated with US-China tensions, with a preference for A-shares in the short term due to expected higher volatility [1][12] - **Earnings Estimates**: The consensus earnings estimate revision breadth remains negative but has shown slight improvement compared to the previous week [1] - **Export Trends**: Macro data indicates a divergence in export mix, with exports to the US and ASEAN moderating, while exports to Taiwan and Korea rebounded, likely due to tech-specific factors [3] Additional Important Information - **Home Prices**: The property market shows a slight widening in home price declines, with transaction home prices dropping 1.1% month-on-month and 9.8% year-on-year in approximately 50 sample cities [10] - **Trade Negotiations**: Uncertainty over trade negotiations is expected to weigh on home sales, contributing to a cautious outlook on home prices [10] - **Future Monitoring**: Key factors to monitor include the upcoming NPC Standing Committee meeting, clarity on macro policy, and the conclusion of the 2Q earnings season, which could alleviate profit-taking pressures [13] Market Preferences - **Near-term Preference**: A-shares are preferred in the near term due to anticipated volatility from the expiration of the US-China trade truce and weakening consumption momentum [12] - **Long-term Outlook**: The setup for the Hong Kong market is expected to improve post-September as risk factors become clearer [12] Conclusion - The A-share market is currently experiencing flat sentiment with declining trading volumes, while macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions are influencing investor behavior and market dynamics. Monitoring upcoming policy meetings and trade negotiations will be crucial for future market direction.

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the Agricultural Products Morning Report of Wukuang Futures on August 8, 2025, covering multiple agricultural products including soybeans, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Analysis Soybeans/Meals - Thursday night, US soybeans rose slightly, supported by low - valuation bargain - hunting and position adjustment before the USDA report. Domestic soybean meal was supported by cost due to lack of US soybean purchases and strong Brazilian quotes, and was trading near the break - even price. Domestic soybean meal spot was stable on Thursday, with an offer of 2,910 yuan/ton in East China, and the transaction volume decreased while the pick - up was good [2] - According to MYSTEEL statistics, 2.2539 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China last week, and 2.213 million tons are expected to be crushed this week [2] - US soybean production areas are expected to have slightly less rainfall in the next two weeks, mainly in the central region, and the temperature is at a neutral level. In Brazil, the premium is rising strongly and has stabilized in the past two days. Overall, US soybeans are in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver, but the domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - scale upward fluctuation due to a single supply source [3] Oils - High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to increase by 5.31% - 12% in the first 10 days of June, decrease by 5.29% - 6.16% in the first 15 days, decrease by 3.57% - 7.31% in the first 20 days, decrease by 9.2% - 15.22% in the first 25 days, and decrease by 6.71% - 9.58% for the whole month. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 35.28% in the first 10 days of July 2025, 17.06% in the first 15 days, 6.19% in the first 20 days, 5.52% in the first 25 days, and 7.07% for the whole month [7] - Brazilian 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to grow at the slowest pace in nearly 20 years, with an estimated area of 48.13 million hectares (118.9 million acres), a 1.43% increase from the previous year [7] Sugar - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton or 0.76% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups' quotes were 5,920 - 6,040 yuan/ton, down 20 - 40 yuan/ton from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups' quotes were 5,750 - 5,790 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotes of processing sugar mills were 6,100 - 6,200 yuan/ton, down 0 - 50 yuan/ton [12] - As of the week of August 6, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 80, compared with 79 in the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.5777 million tons, compared with 3.5531 million tons in the previous week. In July, Brazil exported 455,000 tons of sugar to China, a decrease of 305,000 tons from June and 130,000 tons from the same period last year [12] Cotton - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton January contract was 13,835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (CCIndex 3128B) was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (CCIndex 3128B) against the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1,165 yuan/ton [15] - In July, Brazil exported 127,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 6,000 tons from June and 40,000 tons from the same period last year. Among them, exports to China were 8,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from June but a decrease of 27,000 tons from the same period last year [15] Eggs - The national egg price was mostly stable, with a few areas having narrow - range adjustments. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 2.86 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.6 yuan/jin, while the price in Guantao rose 0.07 yuan to 2.69 yuan/jin. The supply was relatively stable, farmers were actively selling, the overall market sales improved slightly, and the participants' enthusiasm increased slightly [17] Pigs - The domestic pig price continued to fall yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped 0.14 yuan to 13.86 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.11 yuan to 13.26 yuan/kg. The supply for slaughter was abundant, the terminal demand was limited, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high [19] Group 3: Trading Strategies Soybeans/Meals - The import cost of foreign - sourced soybeans is currently fluctuating due to low valuation, positive EPA policies, and the fact that soybeans from September to January are solely supplied by Brazil. With global protein raw material supply in excess, the upward momentum of soybean import cost is insufficient. The domestic soybean meal market is still in a season of oversupply, and it is expected that the spot market may start destocking at the end of September. Therefore, the soybean meal market has both long and short factors. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new drivers from the supply side. In terms of arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract when the spread is low [5] Oils - Fundamentally, the US biodiesel policy draft exceeding expectations, the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, the low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the center of the oil market. From July to September, if demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production in producing areas remains at a neutral level, the inventory in producing areas may remain stable, supporting the quotes in producing areas to fluctuate strongly. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upward space is restricted by factors such as annual - level oil production increase expectations, high - end palm oil production in the near - term, the RVO rules not being finalized, macro factors, and demand adjustments by major importing countries. The market should be viewed as fluctuating [10] Sugar - In the second half of the year, the increasing import supply will squeeze the sales space of domestic - produced sugar. The profit from out - of - quota spot sugar imports has been at the highest level in the past five years, and the futures price is over - valued. Coupled with the expectation of an increase in domestic planting area in the next season, assuming that the foreign market price does not rebound significantly, the Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to fall [13] Cotton - The Sino - US economic and trade agreement has not been finalized, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures is bearish. Fundamentally, as the basis strengthens, the downstream consumption is average recently, the operating rate remains at a historically low level, and the cotton destocking speed has slowed down. The current futures price has fallen below the trend line, so it should be viewed as bearish in the short term [16] Eggs - The increase in newly - laid hens and the difficulty in culling old hens have led to a large supply, causing the spot price to perform worse than expected in the peak season. Near - term short - sellers should continue to squeeze the premium, and the market is dominated by reverse - spread logic. However, as the market still expects a rebound in the peak seasons of August and September, with the intensification of differences in the market as positions increase, it is easy to have reverse fluctuations when the spot price rises. Considering the high inventory throughout the peak season and the fact that subsequent contracts on the futures market cannot reflect the spot price peak, it is advisable to short after a rebound in the medium term, and short - term positions can be appropriately reduced at low prices to avoid risks [18] Pigs - The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction, and the original logic of oversupply has been reconstructed, resulting in a significant increase in the valuation of each futures contract, especially the long - term ones. For near - term contracts, although the theoretical supply in the fourth quarter increases, after the current active weight - reduction has released pressure in advance, the large difference between the prices of fat and standard pigs may lead to active weight - gain, reducing the possibility of significant destocking in the early fourth quarter, and the spread may move towards a positive structure. For long - term contracts, the long - term policy's regulation of sow capacity cannot be disproven for now, and the spread tends to be in a reverse structure. With the industrial structure being reconstructed, the uncertainty of single - side trading increases, and more attention should be paid to spread opportunities [20] Group 4: Key Charts - The report includes multiple charts on agricultural products, such as the inventory of major oil mills' soybean meal, granulated rapeseed meal, port soybeans, domestic three major oils, and Malaysian palm oil, as well as production, export, rainfall, and other related data charts [21][38][51]