该行的预期调整在一定程度上参考了2020年第二季度因疫情封锁导致的经济放缓，但此次下调幅度相对 较小，特别是考虑到关税政策的反复变化。该行认为The Trade Desk受关税影响最为直接，而Criteo基于 效果的广告支出则具有一定的防御性。 该行认为，The Trade Desk因品牌广告和部分垂直领域受影响，2025财年营收预期将从28.79亿美元降至 27.55亿美元，目标价从70美元降至63美元;Criteo虽有业绩广告优势，但受零售媒体和旅游等垂直领域 影响，2025财年营收预期从11.68亿美元降至11.47亿美元，目标价从60美元降至47美元。 花旗近日发布北美互联网行业股票Q1前瞻报告，绩前调整了该行业覆盖范围内大多数公司的盈利预期 和目标价，以反映对关税影响以及由此导致的宏观环境走软的预期。 虽然该行覆盖的所有公司都在一定程度上受到影响，但总体而言，该行认为数字广告和电子商务行业受 影响最大，而网站建设商、针对中小企业的工具提供商以及在线约会领域受影响较小。 花旗预计第一季度财报或不会受到投资者太多关注，而第二季度和2025年全年展望及预期基本上将主要 由关税和宏观因素驱动，该行也会关注覆 ...

Group 1 - Several small and medium-sized banks have lowered their deposit rates, with some rates falling below those of larger banks for the same term [1] - In 2024, only 6 out of 38 listed securities firms reported positive growth in their investment banking business, with the highest increase at 91%, while 32 firms experienced an average decline of 27%, with the largest drop at 84% [1] - TrendForce indicates that the price decline of panel driver ICs is expected to slow down in the first half of 2025, with a potential stabilization in the second half [1] Group 2 - The gold market in Shenzhen is experiencing high trading activity, with domestic spot gold prices at 778.65 yuan per gram, and consumers are eager to purchase as prices drop below 800 yuan [2] - Guotai Junan Asset Management appointed a new chairman, and the integration of asset management subsidiaries from Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities is underway [2] - Major Chinese tech companies, including Tencent and Alibaba, are aggressively purchasing GPU resources, with Tencent reportedly buying around 2 billion yuan worth of GPUs from ByteDance [2] Group 3 - JD.com has plans to test its food delivery service, initially intended for cities like Zhengzhou, but the project was postponed due to business readiness issues [3][4] - Several major US tech companies, including Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple, are set to release their earnings reports, with a focus on potential tariff impacts on their supply chains [4] - Seres has submitted an application for an IPO in Hong Kong, focusing on the research, manufacturing, and sales of new energy vehicles [4] Group 4 - Three squirrels have submitted an application for an H-share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5] - Sunac China has had its court hearing for a winding-up petition postponed to August 25, 2025 [6] - Renfu Pharmaceutical reported a 37.7% decline in net profit for 2024, with a proposed cash dividend of 3.20 yuan per 10 shares [6] Group 5 - Samsung Medical's subsidiary won a 313 million yuan procurement project for new energy equipment [7] - Huadong Heavy Machinery reported a 64.64% increase in net profit for Q1 2025, with revenue growth of 41.12% [8] - Kailong Co. reported a 34.39% increase in net profit for Q1 2025, with revenue growth of 13.16% [9] - Shengyi Electronics reported a significant 656.87% increase in net profit for Q1 2025, with revenue growth of 78.55% [10] Group 6 - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight decline of 0.2%, with over 4,100 stocks falling in value [11] - The banking sector remains strong, with major banks like ICBC and CCB reaching historical highs [11] - Real estate stocks faced significant declines, with many stocks hitting the daily limit down [11]

智通财经4月28日电，耐科装备董事长黄明玖在今日举行的业绩会上表示，美国加征关税会增加其客户 在中国采购装备的成本，对该公司在美产品销售有一定影响。据介绍，耐科装备销往美国客户的产品主 要是挤出成型装备细分产品中的成型模具，是塑料挤出成型生产线最关键的单元，但在整条生产线中投 入占比只有十分之一不到，根据调查，采购成本提高部分客户短期内勉强还可以接受，但如果长期高关 税，产品性价比优势会明显减弱，可能部分客户会丢失，且新客户开发难度加大。（记者 郭辉） 耐科装备：长期高关税或致部分客户丢失 减弱产品性价比优势 ...

2025 年 04 月 28 日 下游开工向好以及库存去化，铜铝价格维持较强 走势 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：傅鸿浩 S1050521120004 fuhh@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杜飞 S1050523070001 dufei2@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属(申万) | -4.8 | 2.9 | -1.6 | | 沪深 300 | -3.3 | -0.8 | 5.7 | 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《有色金属行业周报：关税影响 美国经济滞涨风险增大，金价支撑 仍然强劲》2025-04-21 2、《有色金属行业周报：美国通胀 持续走弱，降息预期提升支撑金 价》2025-04-14 3、《有色金属行业周报：电解铝库 存去化叠加下游需求向好，铝价偏 强看待》2025-03-31 ▌黄金：短期获利回吐导致金价大幅回调，但是基 本面仍然支撑金价 数据方面，美国 3 月新屋销售环比今值 7 ...

2025 年 04 月 28 日 下游开工向好以及库存去化，铜铝价格维持较强 走势 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：傅鸿浩 S1050521120004 fuhh@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杜飞 S1050523070001 dufei2@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属(申万) | -4.8 | 2.9 | -1.6 | | 沪深 300 | -3.3 | -0.8 | 5.7 | 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《有色金属行业周报：关税影响 美国经济滞涨风险增大，金价支撑 仍然强劲》2025-04-21 2、《有色金属行业周报：美国通胀 持续走弱，降息预期提升支撑金 价》2025-04-14 3、《有色金属行业周报：电解铝库 存去化叠加下游需求向好，铝价偏 强看待》2025-03-31 美联储票委古尔斯比本周发言对美国经济和未来利率水平做 了点评。古尔斯比表示，短期通胀预期上升，但长期预期未 ...

高盛顶级策略师多米尼克·威尔逊（Dominic Wilson）在上周的报告中提出：要促使美联储降息，需要劳动力市场急剧恶 化，即"失业率任何显著上升的压力都将促使美联储果断采取行动"。 以下摘录自威尔逊的报告《刀锋边缘》（Along the Knife Edge）： 4月9日对等关税的暂停缓解了金融环境的急剧紧缩，将美国经济从衰退悬崖边缘拉回……但由于政策不确定性仍高企、企 业和消费者信心低迷、实际收入增长可能收缩，经济仍可能陷入衰退。我们认为全面衰退将导致标普500指数跌至4600点， 高收益债利差突破600基点，短期收益率低于3%。 不止高盛，美联储副主席沃勒上周也证实，尽管7月前难以评估关税影响（需等到2025年下半年），但届时可能为时已晚。 他认为关税只会产生一次性价格效应，并称"需要勇气将关税引发的涨价视为暂时现象"。 近期动荡暴露的金融脆弱性（包括美国国债市场）也可能随时再现。已实施关税对通胀的影响及劳动力市场雇佣行为的变 化需要时间显现，因此未来至少两三个月我们仍将处于"衰退观察期"。 贸易和财政政策路径的不确定性也阻碍美联储果断行动。包括鲍威尔在内的美联储官员近期均强调这些矛盾，指出稳定通 胀 ...

Core Viewpoint - Safran Group reported a strong performance in Q1 2025 with a 16.7% increase in adjusted revenue, reaching €7.257 billion, driven by growth in the civil aviation aftermarket [2][3] Group Performance - The consolidated revenue for Q1 2025 was €7.38 billion, reflecting a 16.7% increase compared to Q1 2024, with organic growth at 13.9% [2][3] - Positive impacts from business scope changes contributed €32 million, while currency fluctuations added €142 million, with an average EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.05 for Q1 2025 [3] Business Segment Performance - The propulsion segment saw a 16.4% organic revenue growth, primarily driven by a 25.1% increase in civil engine spare parts revenue [4] - Civil engine services revenue grew by 17.6%, supported by RPFH contracts for LEAP engines, with 319 LEAP engines delivered in Q1 2025 compared to 367 in Q1 2024 [4] - The equipment and defense segment experienced a 10.8% revenue increase, particularly in nacelles, landing gear systems, and avionics [4] Aircraft Interiors - The aircraft interiors segment achieved a robust 13.8% growth, surpassing Q1 2019 levels by 8%, with aftermarket services growing by 17.4% [5] - Original equipment sales increased by 11.5%, driven by a significant rise in business class seat deliveries [5] Full-Year Outlook - Safran Group maintains its full-year outlook for 2025, expecting approximately 10% revenue growth and recurring operating profit between €4.8 billion and €4.9 billion [6] - Free cash flow is projected to be between €3 billion and €3.2 billion, accounting for an estimated negative impact of €380 million to €400 million from the French large enterprise tax [6] Assumptions and Risks - The outlook is based on assumptions including a 15% to 20% increase in LEAP engine deliveries compared to 2024 [7] - Spare parts revenue is expected to grow in the low double digits, while service revenue is anticipated to grow in the mid double digits [8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a downward adjustment in GDP growth forecast for China, expecting a decline from 5.4% in Q1 to below 4.5% in Q2 2025 due to tariff impacts and reduced trade volume with the US [2][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the high tariffs imposed have significantly affected trade, with a 64% month-on-month decrease in container bookings from China to the US in April 2025 [2][3]. - Consumer confidence in real estate and overall spending is weakening, with survey data showing increased concerns about income and employment among consumers [3][20]. - The report anticipates a potential reduction in tariffs in the coming months, with expectations of a 60% average reduction by the end of June 2025, and a further 34% reduction by the end of the year, although achieving a comprehensive and lasting resolution remains challenging [4][9]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact - The report projects a significant economic downturn in Q2 2025, with the GDP growth rate expected to drop below 4.5% due to the adverse effects of tariffs and declining domestic demand [9][2]. - It notes that the high tariffs have led to a contraction in trade volume, particularly with the US, impacting various sectors including consumer electronics and automotive [2][3]. Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence has been notably affected, with a marked decline in sentiment regarding real estate and consumer spending, as evidenced by survey results indicating fears of job loss and reduced income [3][20]. - The report mentions that the sales growth of online appliances and passenger vehicles has slowed, reflecting the broader economic concerns [3][25]. Trade Relations - The report discusses the complexities of US-China trade relations, indicating that while there is a window for tariff reductions, the path to a comprehensive agreement is fraught with difficulties [4][9]. - It emphasizes that a significant portion of Chinese exports to the US (30-40%) are less elastic to tariffs, particularly in sectors where the US has a high dependency on Chinese imports [3][15].

醋酸丙酸丁酸纤维素涨价展望 20250427 • 中国化妆品市场增长迅速，受益于 3D 化学产能扩张和国产替代加速。3D 化学在技术和下游一体化布局方面具有优势，醋酸丙酯一体化是新的增长 点。 • 美国加征关税显著影响纤维素产品价格和原材料成本。高端精致纤维素仍 依赖进口，尤其北欧和巴西的速生木浆，占总成本约 40%。 • 受关税影响，伊斯曼 CAP 进口价格上涨至 21.3 万元/吨，本土企业如 3D 化学和北化股份报价 11-13 万元/吨，国产替代加速，但高端应用仍依赖 伊斯曼。 • 伊斯曼调整定价策略应对关税，采用市场波动公式定价，利于自身但冲击 中高端下游企业，尤其光伏薄膜、电子薄膜、汽车漆等领域。 • 国产替代集中在中低端市场，如包装材料和皮革光亮剂，高端市场如汽车 漆和光伏薄膜仍需测试验证。预计下半年高端产品进口价格将远高于中低 端。 • 全球纤维素市场规模约 6.4 亿美元，中国中低端市场需求约 2.6 万吨，国 产化替代率预计今年达 30%-40%，影响 AC 含量小于 20%的纤维素价格。 • 预计未来几个月纤维素价格将阶梯式上涨，或冲击 30 万元/吨高位，但全 年平均价格预计维持在 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [11] Core Insights - The report highlights concerns regarding limited coal demand during the peak season due to negative growth in electricity generation and recent tariff disruptions, suggesting that the impact of tariffs may not reverse the stabilization of coal prices during the peak season [2][7] - Despite the seasonal demand typically increasing in the second and third quarters, the report indicates that the actual demand may be limited, and the market remains cautious due to macroeconomic uncertainties [6][7] - The report suggests that the coal price stabilization trend is likely to continue, supported by steady supply and rising demand for coal, particularly in the context of domestic needs and risk aversion in the market [2][9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) decreased by 0.59%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.97 percentage points, ranking 29th out of 32 industries [19] - As of April 25, the market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 655 CNY/ton, down 8 CNY/ton week-on-week [19][47] Demand and Supply Analysis - The report notes that the coal supply in the twenty-five provinces was 5.076 million tons, an increase of 7.7% from the previous week, while the coal consumption was 4.765 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% [40] - The report emphasizes that despite the current low demand season, the upcoming summer peak season is expected to see a seasonal increase in coal demand, although the extent may be limited due to tariff impacts [7][8] Price Outlook - The report anticipates that coal prices may stabilize or even experience a mild rebound due to steady supply and the necessity for coal consumption, despite potential downward pressure from current demand levels [8][9] - The report also discusses the potential impact of tariffs on coal prices, indicating that while there may be some constraining effects, the overall trend towards price stabilization remains intact [8][9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the coal sector for the next 1-2 quarters, particularly highlighting companies such as China Shenhua (A+H), Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [9]