Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates for the third consecutive time, indicating a cautious approach to economic conditions despite mixed signals from various economic indicators [1][3][5] - Economic data shows a contradiction, with a rise in unemployment to 4.2% and a slight decline in GDP, yet the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remains around 50, suggesting stability in the economy [1][3] - Inflation remains a critical factor, with the current inflation rate exceeding 4% and projections indicating it could rise above 6% due to tariffs, leading the Federal Reserve to be more cautious about rate cuts [3][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve aims to maintain its policy independence and credibility, especially in light of external pressures from political figures, which could undermine its authority if it were to change its decisions based on such pressures [3][5] - The recent fluctuations in the dollar, including a drop from 108 to 99, have raised concerns about capital flight from the U.S. market to emerging markets, which could impact liquidity in the U.S. [5][6] - The decision not to cut rates could have complex implications for global liquidity and trade dynamics, particularly in the context of ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has reported significant effects of counter-cyclical monetary policy adjustments in the first quarter, with stable growth in financial totals and an optimized credit structure [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability - The PBOC will continue to strengthen the execution and supervision of interest rate policies, aiming to lower bank funding costs and reduce overall social financing costs [1] - In the first quarter, monetary credit maintained reasonable growth, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirements and open market operations to ensure ample liquidity and support key economic sectors [1][2] Group 2: Loan Rates and Economic Development - In March, new corporate loans and personal housing loan rates decreased by approximately 50 and 60 basis points year-on-year, creating a favorable financial environment for high-quality economic development [2] - The PBOC plans to enhance the implementation of interest rate policies and continue reforms to improve the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), while expanding pilot areas for comprehensive financing cost assessments for enterprises [2] Group 3: Future Directions - The PBOC will leverage monetary credit policy to guide financial institutions in supporting technology finance, green finance, inclusive small and micro enterprises, consumption expansion, and stabilizing foreign trade [2] - The scope of re-loans for affordable housing will be broadened to maintain stability in the real estate market [2]

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil from Rizhao Cargill is 8080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - International soybean situation: It is currently the U.S. soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season, with Brazilian soybean harvesting almost completed. South American new - crop harvest is likely to be abundant [2] - Domestic industry situation: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance, soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [2] - Reference view: The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3100 yuan/ton (+10), Tianjin 3300 yuan/ton (unchanged), Rizhao 3100 yuan/ton (+10), Dongguan 3270 yuan/ton (+50) [3] - Market analysis: Macro - level, Sino - U.S. economic and trade talks will be held in Switzerland. The market focus has shifted to the North American sowing season, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak. In the domestic market, pay attention to the clearance of Brazilian soybeans after the holiday. Currently, the spot is tight, but it will ease as more soybeans arrive and oil mills resume operation. Downstream replenishment after the holiday may boost short - term trading volume [3] - Reference view: Soybean meal may fluctuate in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn are 2184 yuan/ton in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia, 2404 yuan/ton in key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2260 - 2270 yuan/ton and 2250 - 2270 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Market analysis: The Sino - U.S. tariff dispute has limited impact on the corn market due to China's decreasing import dependence and import from Brazil. Domestically, the supply is tight during the new - old grain transition period, and the downstream demand is weak [4] - Reference view: The domestic corn market is in the new - old grain gap period, and the corn price is likely to rise. It is advisable to take a short - term long position [4] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78290 - 78580 yuan, down 145 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 42.61, down 0.09 [5] - Market analysis: The Fed maintains the interest rate, and there are uncertainties. Domestic policies support the market. The raw material supply problem persists, and the copper inventory in China is declining rapidly [6] - Reference view: The monthly K - line of copper price is balanced. In the short term, it is advisable to participate based on the moving average system [6] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 65700 yuan/ton (- 500) and 64000 yuan/ton (- 500) respectively, with a price difference of 1700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7] - Market analysis: The cost pressure is increasing, the supply is increasing, and the demand is improving but not strong enough [7] - Inventory situation: The weekly inventory is increasing. As of April 24, the weekly inventory is 131864 tons (+259). The monthly inventory in March increased by 47% year - on - year and 17% month - on - month [8] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to short at high prices [8] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3160 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [9] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are improving, with a neutral - low valuation. The cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [9] - Reference view: After the macro - level negative factors are digested, it is advisable to take a long position at low prices for far - month contracts after May [9] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of coking coal (Meng 5) is 1205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton. The port inventories of imported coking coal and coke are 337.38 million tons and 246.10 million tons respectively [10] - Market analysis: The supply is loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [10] - Reference view: Coking coal and coke may rebound weakly at a low level, but the upward space is limited [10] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 99.95, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 760 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 762 yuan [11] - Market analysis: The supply and demand factors are mixed. The global shipping volume has decreased slightly, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has increased, but the overseas demand is differentiated. The U.S. tariff policy has an impact on the market [11] - Reference view: The iron ore 2505 contract may fluctuate in the short term. Traders should be cautious [11] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: The Fed's interest - rate decision and geopolitical conflicts have an impact on the market. OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The demand may be affected by the trade war in the second quarter [12] - Reference view: The WTI main contract may fluctuate between 55 - 60 US dollars per barrel [12] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The impact of the U.S. "equal - tariff" policy on rubber prices has been mostly priced in. The supply is increasing as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees start to be tapped. The global supply and demand are both loose, and the trade - war narrative may affect the demand [13] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. The main contract has support around 14,000 yuan/ton [13] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4660 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [14] - Market analysis: The production enterprise operating rate has increased slightly. The demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, and the inventory has decreased [14] - Reference view: The futures price may fluctuate at a low level due to weak demand [14] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1415 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream prices in different regions are also unchanged [15] - Market analysis: The operating rate has decreased slightly, the production has decreased, the inventory has increased slightly, and the demand is average. The downstream is more willing to buy low - priced goods [15] - Reference view: The futures market may fluctuate widely in the short term [15]

金十数据5月8日讯，美国上周初请失业金人数下降幅度大于预期，表明劳动力市场继续保持平稳，尽管 关税带来的风险正在加大。美国劳工部公布，截至5月3日当周初请失业金人数经季节调整后减少1.3万 人，至22.8万人，而市场预期为23万人。这一下降在一定程度上抵消了纽约州学校春季假期的影响，春 季假期导致申请失业救济的人数达到两个月来的高点。然而，经济学家表示，企业和消费者调查的疲弱 影响到初请失业金、通胀和就业报告等所谓的硬数据只是时间问题。周三，美联储将利率维持在 4.25%-4.50%的区间，政策制定者指出，"失业率和通胀上升的风险已经增加。" 美国初请失业金人数降幅超过预期，但关税影响或即将在数据上体现 ...

英国央行行长贝利：利率并非处于"自动驾驶"状态。 ...

英国至5月8日英国央行MPC投票赞成维持利率不变 2，预期0，前值8。 ...

挪威央行将利率维持在16年高位 承诺未来降息 智通财经5月8日电，挪威央行连续第11次会议上维持借贷成本不变，并重申计划于今年晚些时候开始放 松政策。挪威央行周四将存款利率维持在4.5%，为16年多以来最高水平，与市场预期一致。该行重 申，借贷成本将在"2025年期间"下调。由于此次会议为所谓的中期会议，官员们未发布新的经济预测或 利率展望。"未来贸易政策存在不确定性，"副行长Pal Longva在声明中表示。"这可能使利率展望朝不同 方向发展。"挪威央行在全球同行中独树一帜，多次推迟疫情后宽松政策的启动时间，这主要归因于其 能源丰富的经济韧性和克朗走软带来的通胀风险。围绕美国总统唐纳德·特朗普贸易政策影响的不确定 性，也支持了挪威央行保持观望的态度，这与美联储的立场相呼应。美联储周三维持借贷成本不变，并 表示不会仓促降息。 ...

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（5月8日） 1. 美联储连续第三次维持利率不变，声明中强调通胀和失业率上升的风险走高。鲍威尔高呼不确定性因 素以及继续观望等待的成本很低，表示不急于降息。鲍威尔还称无意主动与特朗普会晤，后者的降息呼 吁无碍美联储的工作。 2. 美国主权财富基金迎进展 贝森特已向特朗普提交计划。 3. 乌克兰央行行长：乌克兰正在开始审议是否应该把欧元而不是美元作为参考货币。 4. 特朗普称今晚十点将宣布大消息，美媒称美国将宣布与英国达成贸易协议。 5. 韩国4月底外汇储备降至五年来最低，受当局稳市措施影响。 6. 香港金管局维持基准利率在4.75%不变。 7. 韩国央行委员：由于经济放缓，预计今年的经济增长将低于此前的预测，先发制人降息的必要性正在 增加。 8. 波兰央行重申可能会干预外汇市场，进一步的决策取决于数据。 13. 菲律宾经济官员：还有空间进一步放宽政策。 9. 捷克央行行长：捷克的货币政策将保持紧缩。 10. 墨西哥央行行长：央行很有可能继续降低基准利率。 11. 印尼表示不会在关税谈判中与美国讨论汇率问题。 12. 巴西央行加息50个基点至14.75%，符合市场预期。 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心回落，其中 WTI 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.02 美元至 58.07 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.73%。布伦特 7 月合约收盘下跌 1.03 美元至 61.12 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.66%。SC2506 以 459 元/桶收盘，下跌 7.1 元/桶， | | | | 跌幅 1.52%。美联储周三维持利率不变，但指出通胀和失业率上升 | | | | 的风险增加，在联储努力评估关税政策的影响之际，这进一步令 | | | | 经济前景蒙阴。FOMC 表示，经济前景的不确定性进一步增加。 | | | | 在这次会议上，决策者们一致同意将指标利率目标区间维持在 | | | | 4.25%-4.50%不变。EIA 公布的库存报告显示，截至 5 月 2 日当 | | | 原油 | 周，美国商业原油库存减少 200 万桶，至 4.384 亿桶，此前市场预 | 震荡 | | | 期为减少 80 万桶。截至 5 月 2 日 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short-term neutral, medium to long-term bearish, suggesting shorting the 09 contract on rallies [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bearish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Neutral [2] - Glass: Bearish with a neutral bias [2] - CSI 300 Index: Neutral [4] - SSE 50 Index: Bullish [4] - CSI 500 Index: Bullish [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Bullish [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Neutral [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Neutral [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Bullish [4] - Gold: Bullish with a neutral bias [4] - Silver: Bullish with a neutral bias [4] - Pulp: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Logs: Neutral [5] - Soybean oil: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Palm oil: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Rapeseed oil: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Soybean meal: Bearish with a neutral bias [7] - Rapeseed meal: Bearish with a neutral bias [7] - No. 2 soybeans: Bearish with a neutral bias [7] - No. 1 soybeans: Neutral [7] - Rubber: Neutral [7] - PX: Neutral [7] - PTA: Suggest shorting processing spreads [7] - MEG: Hold and observe [7] - PR: Hold and observe [8] - PF: Hold and observe [8] - Plastics: Bearish with a neutral bias [8] - PP: Bearish with a neutral bias [8] - PVC: Bearish with a neutral bias [8] Core Viewpoints - The global iron ore shipment may increase seasonally in the coming weeks, while steel mills' production cuts will have a negative impact on the raw material end. The 09 iron ore contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [2] - The supply pressure of coking coal remains high, and the oversupply pattern of coke remains unchanged. Coal and coke generally follow the trend of finished products [2] - The supply pressure of rebar continues to rise, and the market has doubts about external demand and domestic demand. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2] - The glass demand is difficult to rebound significantly, and the fundamentals lack the impetus to push up prices [2] - The central bank will introduce a package of monetary policy measures, and the CSRC will promote long-term funds to enter the market, which is beneficial to the stock market [4] - The logic of the current round of gold price increase has not completely reversed, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] - The supply of pulp is sufficient, and the demand side performs poorly, so the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - The supply pressure of logs decreases, and the demand is expected to improve marginally, with the price expected to stabilize and fluctuate at a low level [5] - The supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the consumption is in the off-season, so the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - The supply of soybean meal will gradually increase, and the market will shift from "tight reality" to "loose expectation", with the price expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - The supply of No. 2 soybeans will gradually become loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - The supply of rubber is expected to increase, and the demand is uncertain. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - PX price is expected to fluctuate with oil prices [7] - PTA supply and demand will destock, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [7] - MEG supply and demand are not bad in the short term, but the macro sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the price fluctuates widely [7] - The polyester bottle chip market may adjust weakly and steadily [8] - The polyester staple fiber market will continue to be in a game state, and the price may fluctuate within a narrow range [8] - The supply and demand of plastics are bearish, and the 05 contract will run weakly [8] - The supply pressure of PP decreases, and the price is expected to run weakly [8] - The PVC supply and demand are bearish, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8] Summary by Category Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: After the press conference, the iron ore futures price rose rapidly and then fell back. The global shipment may increase seasonally, and the steel mills' production cuts will have a negative impact on the raw material end. The short-term reality is strong, and the price may fluctuate and consolidate at the current position. In the medium and long term, the 09 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [2] - Coking coal and coke: The supply pressure of coking coal remains high, and the oversupply pattern of coke remains unchanged. The second round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and the overall inventory has increased. Coal and coke generally follow the trend of finished products [2] - Rebar: After the press conference, the rebar futures price rose rapidly and then fell back. The supply pressure continues to rise, and the market has doubts about external demand and domestic demand. The inventory is at a low level, which supports the price. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2] - Glass: Some production lines have resumed production, and the daily melting volume has fluctuated slightly. The profit has improved, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The demand is difficult to rebound significantly, and the fundamentals lack the impetus to push up prices [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The central bank will introduce a package of monetary policy measures, and the CSRC will promote long-term funds to enter the market, which is beneficial to the stock market. The Fed maintains the interest rate unchanged, and the external market stabilizes. The stock index bulls can hold [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations, and the market liquidity is at a reasonable level. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond rises, and the bulls can hold [4] Precious Metals - Gold: The logic of the current round of gold price increase has not completely reversed, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors, and the tariff policy evolution dominates the market risk aversion sentiment [4] - Silver: The inflation data slows down, and the Fed does not cut interest rates as expected. The short-term price is affected by the Fed's policy and trade negotiations, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The spot market price is strong, but the cost price decline weakens the support for the pulp price. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and the demand side performs poorly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - Logs: The port shipment volume increases, and the supply pressure decreases. The spot market price is weak, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate at a low level [5] Oils and Fats and Meals - Oils and fats: The supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the consumption is in the off-season. The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia increases seasonally, and the demand for biodiesel weakens. The supply of domestic soybeans increases, and the inventory is expected to rise. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - Meals: The supply of soybean meal will gradually increase, and the market will shift from "tight reality" to "loose expectation". The supply of No. 2 soybeans will gradually become loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is uncertain. The inventory accumulation speed slows down, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of the macro and policy aspects [7] Chemicals - PX: The oil price fluctuates at a low level, and the PX price is expected to fluctuate with the oil price [7] - PTA: The raw material price fluctuates repeatedly, and the processing spread is at a certain level. The supply and demand will destock, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [7] - MEG: The supply and demand are not bad in the short term, but the macro sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the price fluctuates widely [7] - PR: The raw material support is weak, but there is certain support from the peak consumption season. The market may adjust weakly and steadily [8] - PF: The demand expectation is weak, and the oil price falls. The PTA supply shrinks, and the market will continue to be in a game state. The price may fluctuate within a narrow range [8] - Plastics: The supply and demand are bearish, and the 05 contract will run weakly. The cost end is affected by factors such as oil prices, and the supply side has new device production expectations [8] - PP: The supply pressure decreases, and the price is expected to run weakly. The cost end is affected by multiple factors, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement [8] - PVC: The supply and demand are bearish, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The cost end is stable, the inventory is destocked, and the spot transaction is average [8]