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3. 市场供需：黄金市场呈现分裂景象，美国市场金条和金币供过于求，投资者抛售；而亚太地区对金条 和金币需求强势增长，中国市场同比增长12%。全球央行对黄金增持意愿依然强劲，超90%受访央行认 为未来12个月内全球央行将继续增持黄金。 走势点评 1. 地缘政治局势：俄乌、以伊为引导的全球地缘政治变革仍是金价偏强基础。全球地缘政治冲突不断、 经济形势复杂多变，黄金作为"避险资产"和"硬通货"，价值受广泛关注。中国、越南、印度等新兴市场 国家官方增持黄金也是金价维稳的关键。 2. 美元走势：美元走弱和避险需求持续，推动黄金期货价格连续第二天走高。不过目前美元已处于严重 超卖状态，若后续出现反弹，一方面将提高以美元计价的大宗商品购买成本，另一方面美元本身也可能 成为黄金的替代避险选择。 截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为777.1元/克，上涨0.84%。 黄金价格短期受美元走势、地缘政治和市场供需等因素影响，波动较为频繁。近期因美元走弱、避险需 求增加而上涨，但需警惕美元反弹风险。从长期来看，全球地缘政治冲突不断、经济形势复杂，以及各 国央行持续购金，为黄金价格提供支撑，上涨趋势未改。银河证券等机构认 ...

本文基于以下微博话题的智搜结果生成 高盛关于2025年底金价涨至3700美元/盎司的预测具有一定支撑逻辑，但需结合市场动态和机构分歧理性评 估其可行性： 一、高盛预测的核心依据 央行购金持续强劲 2025年全球央行购金量保持高位（如2月单月购金106吨），中国、印度等新兴市场推动外汇储备多元化， 中国还允许保险公司配置黄金（潜在需求280吨），构成长期托底力量。 衰退风险与降息预期 高盛评估美国未来12个月衰退概率达45%，若衰退发生，黄金ETF资金流入将激增，推升金价至3880美 元。 美联储降息预期提前至9月，美元疲软（美元指数跌至2022年以来低位）进一步利好黄金。 地缘与政策不确定性 特朗普关税政策反复（7月9日关税缓冲期截止）、中东冲突等风险事件削弱美元信用，强化黄金避险属 性。 | 瑞银 | 3500美元 | 降息支撑但涨幅受限 | | 花旗 | 2500-2700美元 | 经济改善削弱投资需求 | | 德商银行 | 3400美元 | 温和看涨 | 短期波动风险 技术面承压：6月金价从3440美元高位暴跌至3246美元，若经济数据超预期（如非农就业）或地缘缓和， 可能回踩3200-3300美元区间 ...

媒体援引两名美国官员报道称，伊朗军方6月份在波斯湾的船只上装载了水雷，此举加剧了华盛顿的担 忧，即在以色列袭击伊朗各地后，德黑兰正准备封锁霍尔木兹海峡。 这些此前未报道的准备工作被美国情报部门发现，发生在以色列于6月13日对伊朗发动首次导弹袭击之 后的一段时间。 装载水雷（尚未在霍尔木兹海峡部署）表明，德黑兰可能真的想关闭世界上最繁忙的航道之一，此举将 使本已不断升级的冲突升级，并严重阻碍全球贸易。 ...

本文基于以下微博话题的智搜结果生成 高盛提出的3700美元/盎司黄金目标价最早在2025年4月被多次提及，并在后续报告中持续强化这一预 测。根据最新市场动态和机构观点，该目标的实现路径及时间节点可综合如下： ⏰ 一、预测时间框架 核心时间节点：2025年底 高盛在4月11日、4月14日及6月的多份报告中明确表示，基于央行购金、经济衰退风险及美元信用动摇 三大驱动因素，维持2025年底金价3700美元/盎司的目标。若央行购金量超预期（如达100吨/月）或经 济衰退加剧，甚至可能提前触及3810-3880美元。 极端情景目标：2026年中期4000美元 高盛补充预测，在央行购金持续强劲、地缘冲突升级或金融制裁加码的背景下，2026年中期金价可能进 一步升至4000美元/盎司。 二、当前进展与支撑逻辑 现实基础 央行购金超预期：2025年2月全球央行单月购金106吨，远超历史均值。中国、印度等新兴市场持续推动 外汇储备多元化，中国允许保险公司配置黄金（潜在需求280吨）。 经济衰退概率：高盛评估美国未来12个月衰退概率达45%，若衰退发生，黄金ETF资金流入将激增，直 接推升金价。 技术面承压：6月金价从高点回调超 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while the decline in the US dollar supports the rise in gold prices, the likelihood of gold jewelry prices reaching 1200 yuan per gram in the short term is low, requiring a multi-dimensional analysis [1][12]. - The negative correlation between the US dollar and gold prices indicates that a weaker dollar typically benefits gold priced in dollars, making it cheaper for holders of other currencies and stimulating global demand [1][3]. - Historical data shows that during periods of dollar weakness, such as June 2025, international gold prices rebounded, with domestic gold jewelry prices following suit [3][5]. Group 2 - Factors supporting the possibility of gold prices reaching 1200 yuan per gram include a significant drop in the dollar, geopolitical crises, and speculative fervor, although the probability of this scenario is less than 20% [5][12]. - Current influences on gold prices include synchronized depreciation of non-US currencies, which diminishes gold's attractiveness, and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies that could delay easing measures despite potential interest rate cuts [4][12]. - Geopolitical sensitivity is highlighted, as a de-escalation in Middle Eastern tensions previously led to a significant drop in gold prices, indicating that renewed conflicts could trigger short-term spikes but are unlikely to sustain high prices [5][12]. Group 3 - Market sentiment and leverage risks are present, with current gold prices reflecting high-risk premiums and technical indicators showing signs of divergence [6][7]. - The rise of alternative assets, such as platinum and cryptocurrencies, is diverting funds away from gold, impacting its demand [8]. - Recommendations for consumers include prioritizing essential purchases through low-cost channels and for investors to diversify their portfolios while being cautious of high-level corrections [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - The potential for gold prices to reach $3,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 is supported by various market dynamics, institutional forecasts, and influencing factors [1][17]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Price Increase - Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, have raised their forecasts multiple times, predicting gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with a possibility of $4,000 by mid-2026 due to geopolitical risks, weakening dollar credit, and ongoing central bank purchases [1]. - The long-term upward cycle for gold remains intact, with significant support from central bank purchases, as global central banks have been net buyers for 16 consecutive years, adding 244 tons in Q1 2025 [2][5]. - Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut could further weaken the dollar, which has already fallen to its lowest level since March 2022, potentially boosting gold prices [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Structural Demand - Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the fragility of Middle East ceasefire agreements and fluctuating U.S.-China tariff negotiations, may reignite safe-haven demand for gold [4]. - The structural demand for gold is reinforced by the fact that 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing their gold reserves over the next 12 months [5]. Group 3: Risks to Price Increase - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices fall below $3,165 per ounce, a technical correction of 10-15% could occur, potentially bringing prices down to the $2,500-$2,700 range [6]. - Current gold prices are detached from actual production costs, indicating a risk of valuation correction due to high price levels [7]. - If strong non-farm payroll data or inflation rebounds occur, the Fed may delay interest rate cuts, which could suppress gold prices [8]. Group 4: Institutional Divergence - There is a divergence among institutions regarding gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs predicting $3,700, UBS over $3,500, while Citigroup warns of a potential drop to the $2,500-$2,700 range [11]. Group 5: Investor Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to maintain rationality amid short-term volatility and avoid chasing price movements, as gold prices are highly sensitive to policy changes [12]. - A recommended allocation for gold in household financial assets is between 5-10%, with a strategy of dollar-cost averaging into gold ETFs to mitigate timing risks [12]. - Key policy anchors to monitor include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the political landscape surrounding U.S. elections [13].

Group 1 - The article highlights the shifting dynamics in international relations, where China has emerged as a key economic supporter for countries like Russia, Iran, and Cuba, previously seen as adversaries to the U.S. [1] - In 2023, China imported 86.25 million tons of crude oil from Russia, accounting for nearly 40% of Russia's total oil exports, which has helped stabilize the Russian economy amidst Western sanctions [1] - Iran has benefited from China's oil purchases, allowing it to regain some economic stability and assertiveness in nuclear negotiations, as U.S. sanctions have severely impacted its oil exports [1] Group 2 - Cuba, facing decades of U.S. blockade, has received comprehensive support from China, including food supplies and infrastructure development, which has contributed to its economic revival [1] - The mutual support between China and these countries has created a protective layer for China, allowing it to focus on its own development while these nations engage in geopolitical maneuvers [2] - China's robust economic position has positioned it as the core player in international cooperation, demonstrating that the essence of modern geopolitics is based on mutual benefit and collaboration [2]

Core Insights - Emerging market banks have demonstrated resilience amid global volatility and geopolitical risks [1] Group 1 - The performance of emerging market banks is notably strong despite external challenges [1] - Factors contributing to this resilience include robust capital positions and improved asset quality [1] - The sector is expected to continue adapting to changing economic conditions and regulatory environments [1]

点击下方关注许亚鑫，加★星标★，充值鑫仰！ 我在前文《》谈及黄金的日线走势的时候，提到了重要的均线。当然啦，如果你们认真看留言板的话，实际上应该知道是哪一天，看图(绿色线)—— 6月27日金价收盘在3273美元/盎司，已经形成了破位。不过根据《四维共振》基础篇的突破三原则，即突破在外，保持在外，充分回吐，还需要一次回抽 确认。 汇丰银行最新的一份报告剖析黄金的走势逻辑，并指出，黄金的上涨动能或已接近极限。 那么，之所以说这条均线重要，是因为年内的这一波黄金上攻行情，实际上是经历了去年10月底到今年1月中旬的一波收敛整理。均线系统在收敛之后， 再次扩散，形成了均线系统的看多做多走势。 大家可以仔细日线图，从今年1月至今，价格从未有效击穿过这根均线。如今是年内首次失而复得，变相的也在意味着有部分之前做多的资金在出逃。 或者我这么直白的跟你讲， 这次是假破位，那么下次呢？ 当然，从日线的区间来看，目前整体震荡的态势倒没有发生变化。 汇丰在最新报告中写道，虽然地缘政治风险、央行购金需求和美元走弱等因素将继续支撑金价在历史高位运行，但随着实物需求减弱、供应增加、美联储 降息预期减弱等因素的影响，预计2025年下半年金价 ...