文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪 （微信 SuperSummerSnow） 目前，从已经披露的 28 个经济体的新定税率来看 ，巴西最高，为 50% ，其次是缅甸和老挝，为 40% ，泰国、柬埔寨、加拿大税率位列第三档，税率分别定 为 36% 、 36% 、 35% ，欧盟税率则为 30% ，日本、韩国税率定为 25% ，而越南、印尼、英国，与美国达成贸易协议（越南并未最终敲定），税率最低， 分别定为 20% 、 19% 、 10% 。 一、美国贸易谈判进展跟踪 （一）对等关税 2.0 概况 1 、新关税率是多少？详见图 1 7 月 7 日，特朗普签署行政令，将互惠对等关税暂停期延长至 8 月 1 日，并陆续向数十个贸易伙伴发送函件，宣布新的关税率将于 8 月 1 日生效，新的关税 率与 4 月 2 号对等关税率大体相同，在 10%-50% 之间。此外， 7 月 17 日，特朗普接受采访时表示，将向 150 多个国家发送关税信函，关税率可能是 10% 或 15% ，还没有最终决定。 核心观点 1 ） 7 月 7 日，特朗普签署行政令， ...

Core Viewpoint - India's recent diplomatic maneuvers indicate a shift in its foreign policy, particularly in response to U.S. pressures regarding tariffs and sanctions on Russia, suggesting a potential realignment with China and Russia for strategic partnerships [1][3][4]. Group 1: Diplomatic Relations - Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar's visit to China emphasized the need for increased communication and cooperation between India and China, highlighting a warming relationship [1]. - Following Jaishankar's visit, the Indian government expressed interest in reviving the trilateral cooperation mechanism with China and Russia, indicating a strategic pivot [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Pressures - The U.S. is imposing tariffs that could significantly impact the Indian economy, prompting India to seek alternative partnerships to mitigate these pressures [3]. - India is considering diversifying its oil imports, planning to increase purchases from Iran, Iraq, and the UAE while maintaining some level of trade with Russia [4][6]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning - India is attempting to balance its relationships with both the U.S. and Russia, leveraging its position as a major buyer of Russian oil while also responding to U.S. demands [6][9]. - The Indian government is aware of the risks of being perceived as unreliable by its partners due to its dual approach in foreign relations, particularly in the context of U.S. sanctions [9].

美日之间的关税谈判为何会停滞不前？面对美国的咄咄逼人，石破茂又作出了怎样的回应呢？ 距离"对等关税"的最后日期7月9日只剩不到一周的时间，但是与美国达成关税协议的国家依然寥寥无几。比如日本，虽然竭尽全力希望能够在7月9日之前能 够和美国达成协议，但是由于双方在各自的核心利益上均不肯让步，导致双方的7轮谈判全部无果而终。 近期，日方的谈判代表赤泽亮正在两个多内第7次飞抵美国，准备与美国就关税问题进行谈判。但是这次赤泽亮正这次访美，别说与特朗普面谈，就连美国 财长贝森特的面他也没有见到，为了能和贝森特见上一面，赤泽亮正一再延长了在美国停留的时间，但是却依然未能如愿。 那么一直以来关系还不错的美日同盟，为何会在关税问题上相持不下呢？其实答案就藏在特朗普的表态中。据相关数据显示，在2024年，日本对美国出口了 约137万辆汽车，总价值超过了6万亿日元（约合414亿美元），占到了日本对美出口总额的30%左右。而在2024年，美国对日本的贸易逆差大约是694亿美 元，因此特朗普想当然地认为，只要把日本的汽车挡在美国之外，就能从很大程度上解决美日逆差的问题。 所以在"对等关税"之前，美国就对日本的汽车行业加征了25%的关税 ...

美国《外交学者》杂志称，马科斯是特朗普第二任期以来首个受邀访问华盛顿的东南亚国家领导人，也是他自2022年上任以来第5次访问美国。 据《日经亚洲评论》报道，美方拟于8月1日对菲律宾出口产品征收20%的"对等关税"，较4月宣布的17%进一步提高，这引发菲律宾方面的广泛担 忧。报道称，菲律宾贸易官员已尝试与美方协商此项政策，但仍未能阻止关税的提高。 【环球时报驻美国特约记者 李致 环球时报记者 任伊然】菲律宾总统马科斯20日启程前往美国华盛顿，展开为期三天的正式访问。综合《菲律宾 每日问询者报》《菲律宾星报》等媒体20日的报道，马科斯此行正值美国准备对菲律宾产品征收所谓"对等关税"之际。他此次访美将主要面临关 税和防务两项难题。 除特朗普外，马科斯21日将与美国国防部长赫格塞思、国务卿鲁比奥举行会晤。同时，他此访将与一些在菲律宾投资的美国商界领袖会面。另据 《菲律宾星报》报道，此次访问预计还将涉及地区和国际问题，包括长期存在的南海争端。 5月进行的菲律宾中期选举结果显示，马科斯阵营仅获得参议院12个改选席位中的6席。有专家分析称，与反对派几乎"平分秋色"，意味着马科斯 在剩余任期内将面临更多挑战。有菲网民认为，他 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 再议债市的宏观线索：反内卷、城市会议、 关税谈判——债券周报 20250720 债券周报 2025 年 07 月 20 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：周冠南 电话：010-66500886 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 证券分析师：靳晓航 电话：010-66500819 邮箱：jinxiaohang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522080003 证券分析师：许洪波 电话：010-66500905 邮箱：xuhongbo@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522090004 证券分析师：宋琦 电话：010-63214665 邮箱：songqi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080002 联系人：李阳 邮箱：liyang3@hcyjs.com 联系人：张威 邮箱：zhangwei7@hcyjs.com 相关研究报告 《 【华创固收】旺季兑现，"反内卷"提振价格 预期——每周高频跟踪 20250719》 2025-07-19 《【华创固收】"反内卷"行情持续升温，强赎集 ...

Group 1 - The EU has drafted two rounds of retaliatory tariffs and is evaluating a series of measures, including the activation of the "anti-coercion tool" [1] - The US has threatened to impose "reciprocal tariffs" on trade partners, with a deadline approaching on August 1, leading to a stalemate in US-EU negotiations [1][3] - The US is currently imposing a 25% tariff on imported cars from the EU and a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum [1] Group 2 - German Chancellor Merz expressed concerns about the trade negotiations, indicating that the US is hesitant to lower industry tariffs [3] - The German Finance Minister emphasized the need to resolve global trade conflicts but insisted that agreements should not be made at any cost [3] - The German central bank president warned that tariff uncertainties are causing significant damage to the global economy [3] Group 3 - The EU is prepared to implement retaliatory measures if the US maintains its proposed tariff rates of 15%-20% [4] - The EU plans to impose tariffs on $21 billion worth of US imports starting August 6, with a second round targeting $72 billion in US goods if negotiations fail [4][5] - The EU Commission stated that the current US tariff policy affects €380 billion of EU exports, accounting for 70% of EU exports to the US [5] Group 4 - Warnings have been issued that proposed US tariffs could severely hinder Germany's economic recovery, with a potential recession in 2025 [6] - Analysts predict that a 30% tariff on EU exports could push the Eurozone economy into recession by late 2025, with significant growth reductions expected [6][7] - Deutsche Bank's analysis suggests that the effective tariff rate could range from 12%-17%, significantly higher than the approximately 1% level at the beginning of the year [6] Group 5 - Despite the trade tensions, European stock markets are performing well, with major indices near historical highs [7] - The CAC 40 index in France has risen by 5.8% year-to-date, while the DAX index in Germany has increased by 21.3% [7]

Group 1 - Trump has announced a plan to impose tariffs of up to 25% on goods imported from Japan and South Korea, affecting 14 countries in total [1][3] - The U.S. has previously raised Japan's auto import tariffs from 2.5% to 27.5% and introduced a 14% "reciprocal tariff," with potential cumulative tariffs reaching as high as 49% if negotiations fail [3] - Japan's government is actively discussing countermeasures in response to the U.S. tariff threats, emphasizing their commitment to protect national interests during negotiations [3][5] Group 2 - Japan is planning to initiate experimental deep-sea drilling for rare earth elements near Minami-Torishima Island, aiming to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earth supplies [6] - The estimated reserves of rare earth elements in the area are around 16 million tons, making it the third-largest globally, but the high cost and technical challenges of deep-sea extraction remain significant hurdles [6] - Environmental concerns have been raised regarding the potential impact of deep-sea mining on marine ecosystems, although monitoring systems are being established to mitigate risks [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the international monetary system, particularly focusing on the decline of the US dollar and the implications of stablecoins in this context [3][4][5]. Group 1: Current Monetary System Challenges - Since early 2025, the narrative of "American exceptionalism" has been challenged, leading to a 12.5% decline in the US dollar index [3]. - Following the "reciprocal tariffs" impact in April, the US financial markets experienced simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currency [3]. - The "Triffin Dilemma," which predicts a crisis of confidence in the dollar due to excessive credit expansion, is highlighted as a historical precedent for current issues [3][4]. Group 2: Stablecoins and Their Role - The article raises questions about the nature and functions of stablecoins, exploring their potential roles in the monetary system and their relationship with the US dollar [5]. - It emphasizes the need for a deeper understanding of the essence of money and the functions it serves, particularly in the context of stablecoins [5]. Group 3: Political and Economic Interconnections - The relationship between alliance politics, monetary issues, and strategy is underscored, indicating that the dollar and gold issues are intertwined with broader political concerns, such as US-NATO relations and Germany's role [6]. - The article stresses that economic policies cannot be viewed in isolation from strategic and foreign policy issues, highlighting the political dimensions of monetary matters [6].

特朗普对全球展开的关税战让人愈加感到可怕，这种局势可能使美国一步步走向新一轮的大萧条。 在7月10日，特朗普宣布将于8月1日起向加拿大征收35%的关税，他解释称这是因为"加拿大并未与美国 达成合作，而是采取了报复性关税的策略。"经过一番探讨，闲闲财经并没有发现加拿大对美国实施反 制的动作，截止目前，似乎只有中国在对美国的措施做出回应。若按现状发展到8月1日，除了中国，其 他国家也大可能会对美国实施反制。考虑到美国先前对钢铝和铜加税的炎症，预计到2025年，这一系列 关税措施将重创加拿大。 可以明确的是，行业关税几乎没有谈判的余地，假如加拿大遭受重创，随着8月1日的临近，加拿大被迫 对美国展开反击的可能性在大幅增加。此外，特朗普还曾表示要对巴西加征50%的关税，虽然美巴之间 存在谈判空间，但考虑到在8月1日之前，很多国家都未与美国展开谈判，时日已晚。 当前，世界面临的一个重要挑战在于，美国退出自由经济的背景下，需要一个超级大经济体来替代美 国，以缓解市场需求不足的压力。而历史的重责大任，恰好落在中国肩上。 刺激内需不仅对提升本国经济至关重要，对于全球经济的健康发展也同样具有举足轻重的影响。只要中 国能够有效实现 ...

Core Points - The imposition of a 50% "reciprocal tariff" by the Trump administration has led to an unprecedented economic disaster in Lesotho, a small landlocked country in Africa, which heavily relies on the U.S. for its textile exports [1][3] - Lesotho's economy is significantly impacted as 90% of its exports depend on the textile industry, which has been supported by the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) allowing duty-free access to over 7,000 products [1][3] - The immediate effects of the tariff have resulted in over 7,000 job losses in the textile sector within a month, threatening the industry that contributes approximately 10% to the country's GDP [3][5] Economic Impact - The textile industry in Lesotho has created around 40,000 jobs, accounting for 90% of the country's export manufacturing jobs, making it a critical sector for the nation's economy [1][3] - The unemployment crisis has led to a 35% food shortage rate in the capital, Maseru, and rising maize meal prices, exacerbating the humanitarian situation [3][5] - The Lesotho government has allocated 3% of its departmental budget (approximately $22.2 million) to an emergency fund aimed at creating 60,000 new jobs through construction and agricultural projects over two years [3][6] International Response - The international community has criticized the U.S. for its actions, with the United Nations Trade and Development Conference stating that the U.S. is destroying the most vulnerable economies [6] - South Africa has pledged 20 million rand (about $1 million) in emergency aid, while China is providing humanitarian assistance worth 10 million yuan [6] - The situation in Lesotho highlights the vulnerability of small nations in the global trade system, as they often become collateral damage in the geopolitical strategies of larger countries [6][8] Future Outlook - The Lesotho government is seeking concessions from the U.S. while also exploring other African markets and support under AGOA [8] - The challenges faced by Lesotho serve as a reminder of the far-reaching impacts of economic policies in a globalized world, emphasizing the need for larger nations to consider the consequences of their trade rules on smaller countries [8]