证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 08 年 月 日 食品饮料 周观点：啤酒饮料正当旺季，关注大众品上新催化 投资建议：1、白酒：淡季筑底、中长期价值凸显，建议关注" 优势龙头、红 利延续、强势复苏"三条主线：1）优势龙头，头部酒企份额持续提升：贵州 茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒；2）红利延续，高确定性区域酒：今世 缘（江苏格局红利）、迎驾贡酒（洞藏大单品红利）等；3）受益复苏与风险偏 好提升，弹性标的：泸州老窖、水井坊、舍得酒业、老白干酒、港股珍酒李渡、 酒鬼酒等。2、大众品：燕京 U8 改革深化，农夫山泉推新" 茶 "，山姆供应 链上新加速，建议寻找高成长与强复苏两条主线：1）高景气或高成长逻辑： 盐津铺子、东鹏饮料、燕京啤酒、珠江啤酒、三只松鼠、百润股份、有友食品、 好想你等，港股农夫山泉、华润饮料、卫龙美味等。2）政策受益或复苏改善： 青岛啤酒、海天味业、新乳业、伊利股份、重庆啤酒、安琪酵母、仙乐健康、 安井食品、立高食品等，港股 H&H 国际控股等。 白酒：茅台发布 走进系列"，淡季进一步筑底。近期在时隔 6 年后，贵州茅 台上新走进系列新品，并于 6 月 5 ...

研究报告 Research Report 8 Jun 2025 迎驾贡酒 Anhui Yingjia Distillery (603198 CH) 迎驾贡酒跟踪报告：区域龙头地位稳固，生态洞藏增势延续 The Regional Leading Position is Stable, and the Growth of Ecological Caves [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 Rmb40.93 目标价 Rmb66.00 HTI ESG 3.8-3.4-4.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 Rmb32.74bn / US$4.55bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$47.56mn 发行股票数目 800.00mn 自由流通股 (%) 26% 1 年股价最高最低值 Rmb72.92-Rmb40.40 注：现价 Rmb40.93 为 2025 年 0 ...

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 100元以下价格带 ， 基本上老玻汾和二锅头的天下 ， 二锅头胜出是杂牌军打不过大厂嫡系 ， 老玻汾胜出是清香老大降维打击 。 酱酒酿造成本就超过100元了 ， 杀头的生意有人做 ， 赔钱 的买卖没人干 ， 但是有人干了说明酒本身有问题 。 浓香以前在这里都是食用酒精酒 ， 打不过 人家纯粮酿造 。 随着一线浓香大厂固态新产能上市了 ， 看看有无机会突破吧 。 100元—200元价格带 ， 目前是海之蓝一支独大 。 五泸古在这里没有强势大单品竞争 ， 其他 酒厂的产品又没有洋河的好喝 。 海之蓝这些年不被洋河重视 ， 加上市场上假酒太多 ， 影响了 他的声誉 。 其实产品本身还是不错的 ， 要相信老百姓的选择 ， 年销售过亿瓶的大单品 ， 岂 是不好喝能做到的 。 200-300元价格带 ， 浓香基本是五粮春的天下 ， 一线大厂嫡系 ， 老窖这里没有强势大单品竞 争 。 其他浓香好喝的大单品基本都在400元价格带 ， 一般好喝的在这个价格带性价比又不高 ， 毕竟参照物是五粮春 。 400元价格带是中端和低端的分界线 ， 也是 ...

上 市 公 司 食品饮料 2025 年 06 月 07 日 伊力特 (600197) —— 收入业绩承压，增长目标稳健 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 06 月 06 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 14.82 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 20.99/13.52 | | 市净率 | 1.7 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.63 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 7,012 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,385.36/10,183.70 | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 8.53 | | 资产负债率% | 23.97 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 473/473 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 相关研究 《伊力特（600197）点评：24Q3 点评： 收入增长承压，业绩低于预期 》 2024/10/29 《伊力特（600197）点评 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025, with a focus on strategic goals for future growth and a significant dividend proposal for 2024 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.27%, and a net profit of 286 million, down 15.9% [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 549 million, a decline of 6.61%, with net profit at 45 million, down 59.6% [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 796 million, a decrease of 4.32%, and net profit was 144 million, down 9.29% [1]. - The combined revenue for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 was 1.35 billion, a decline of 5.27%, with net profit at 189 million, down 30% [1]. Dividend Policy - The proposed dividend for 2024 is 4.50 yuan per 10 shares (before tax), totaling 213 million, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 74.5% [1]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, high-end liquor revenue was 1.53 billion, up 4.27%, with a volume decrease of 13.6% and a price increase of 20.7% [2]. - Mid-range liquor revenue was 506 million, down 8.17%, with a volume decrease of 6.47% and a price decrease of 1.82% [2]. - Low-end liquor revenue was 134 million, down 20.5%, with a volume decrease of 27.1% and a price increase of 8.99% [2]. - In terms of regions, domestic revenue was 1.6 billion, down 5.81%, accounting for 73.7%, while external revenue was 571 million, up 16.7%, accounting for 26.3% [2]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 was 13.1%, down 2.44 percentage points, primarily due to increased tax and fees as a percentage of revenue and rising expense ratios [3]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 52.3%, up 4.06 percentage points, attributed to improved product mix [3]. - In Q1 2025, the net profit margin was 18.0%, down 1.27 percentage points, mainly due to a decrease in gross profit margin [4]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 48.8%, down 3.12 percentage points, likely due to changes in product mix and price declines [4]. Cash Flow Analysis - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 87 million, down 71%, with cash received from sales at 2.25 billion, down 2.23% [4]. - In Q1 2025, the operating cash flow was -59 million, compared to 160 million in the same period last year, due to a decrease in cash received from sales [4]. - Cash received from sales in Q1 2025 was 587 million, down 24.4%, indicating cash flow growth lagging behind revenue growth [4].

Group 1 - The 2025 RCEP Local Government and Friendship City Cooperation Forum was held in Huangshan, Anhui Province, showcasing the deep charm of Chinese liquor culture through the strategic partnership of Gujing Gongjiu [1][13] - Gujing Gongjiu introduced the "Gujing Gongjiu Year Original Ancient 20 Osaka Expo China Pavilion Official Partner Commemorative Wine" at the forum, utilizing live streaming and holographic projection to enhance audience engagement [3][5] - A cooperation agreement was signed between Gujing Gongjiu and the Korea Anhui Industrial Development Co., Ltd. to expand sales in the Korean market and enhance brand international recognition [4][7] Group 2 - Gujing Gongjiu's international department director presented a promotion titled "Let Chinese Liquor Become the Language of the World," emphasizing the integration of liquor with the health industry [7] - The company has participated as the official partner of the China Pavilion at five consecutive expos, promoting Chinese liquor culture and local cultural characteristics globally [7] - Gujing Gongjiu has entered over 30 countries and regions worldwide, leveraging its unique brewing process and rich historical culture [7]

华声在线全媒体记者 龙思言 2025年初以来，飞天茅台批发价从2600元一路下探，引发热烈讨论。曾经一瓶难求的"液体黄金"，仿佛正逐步跌落神坛。 6月5日，记者走访长沙多家烟酒商行发现，飞天茅台在长沙价格也开始下跌。"不敢囤货，就怕亏""现在卖茅台只能赚个成本价"……不少烟酒店店主面对 茅台的降价叫苦不迭。 "不敢囤货""价格波动大"，烟酒行老板直呼：利润薄得像纸 "去年这时候，回收价还能到2200元，现在1950元收，量多再加20元。"在长沙马王堆附近的一家寄卖行，从事烟酒回收的蒋女士指着角落刚回收的一对 2017年份玫瑰金包装的飞天茅台说道，"囤货的都在抛，我们赚个几十元差价，还得担着跌价风险。" 距离不远的品搁烟酒店老板表示店里没有现货，"现在价格一天一个样，我们根本不敢囤货，只按照客户的需求从经销商那里调货，售价2680元一瓶，利 润薄得像纸"。 随后，记者走访多家烟酒店发现，飞天茅台的零售价高低不一，但均有下降，部分中小烟酒店选择"随行就市"。据开福区一位超市老板段女士透露："我 们的售价是2180元，拿货价差不多和售价持平，现在我们卖飞天茅台，确实没啥利润可以挣咯。" 6月5日12时，记者以消费者 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current state of the liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is under significant pressure, with major challenges that even leading brands like Moutai may struggle to withstand [4][12]. Group 1: Market Challenges - The baijiu market in 2024 is experiencing a downturn due to a sharp decline in Moutai prices, which has created a sense of unease among liquor merchants [4]. - The introduction of "prohibition orders" in 2025 is severely impacting consumption scenarios, particularly in government-related events, leading to a drastic drop in demand [4][6]. - There are ten major challenges facing baijiu manufacturers, including inventory backlog, consumption downgrade, new prohibition orders, overcapacity, capital cooling, youth distancing from drinking, health concerns, internal price wars, international market difficulties, and rising costs due to grain price increases and new national standards [6][12]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - Moutai's marketing strategy has focused on defending the price point of 2000 yuan, which has been a critical threshold amid market fluctuations [8][10]. - Recent market data indicates that the price of Moutai has fluctuated around the 2000 yuan mark, with some regions seeing prices dip below this level [9][11]. - The price volatility around the 2000 yuan threshold reflects a divided market sentiment regarding Moutai's future performance and overall industry confidence [11]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - To navigate the pressures, the baijiu industry must prioritize strategies such as destocking, stabilizing the market, promoting sales, and exploring new consumption scenarios [12][14]. - The industry faces a significant challenge with overcapacity, which has led to the potential exit of less competitive small and medium-sized enterprises during the upcoming market reshuffle [14]. - There is a growing trend towards affordable baijiu as high-end products face declining demand, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [14][16]. Group 4: Youth Engagement and Health Trends - Innovative marketing strategies targeting younger consumers, such as social media challenges, are emerging as effective methods to boost baijiu consumption among the youth [16]. - The health trend is influencing consumer perceptions of baijiu, with the concept of "healthy drinking" potentially offering a new avenue for growth in the industry [16]. - The internationalization of baijiu remains a challenge, with exports constituting only 1% of the market, highlighting the need for strategic efforts to enhance global presence [16].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is experiencing price pressures due to promotional activities, with some distributors adapting to the situation by participating in e-commerce sales despite lower prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The 618 promotional event this year has seen a lower intensity compared to the previous year, but the overall market price for white liquor is under pressure, leading to changes in the mindset of distributors [1]. - Many offline stores are participating in the 618 promotions, which was not common in previous years, indicating a shift in the traditional distribution model [1]. - The entry of instant retail platforms into the promotional activities has intensified competition, causing a decline in market prices and sales for physical stores [1]. Group 2: Pricing and Profitability - Despite the low prices due to subsidies, some distributors report that their profitability remains intact, as evidenced by sales data from a well-known liquor brand [2]. - A specific case shows that a customer paid 3436.5 yuan for four bottles, translating to approximately 859 yuan per bottle, while the order amount was 4202.5 yuan, indicating a significant difference between retail and wholesale pricing [2]. - After accounting for various fees, the distributor's net income from the sale was approximately 959 yuan per bottle, demonstrating that even with lower prices, profitability can be maintained [2].

Core Viewpoint - The price of certain white liquor products in the Southwest region has seen a rebound during the Dragon Boat Festival, but is expected to decline due to the upcoming "618" shopping festival and ongoing "billion-dollar subsidies" [2][9]. Price Trends - The average market price of Feitian Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) rose to 2606.8 RMB per bottle on May 31, up 20 RMB from 2586.8 RMB on April 31 [3]. - The average market price of the eighth generation Wuliangye (52 degrees/500ml) increased to 997.69 RMB per bottle, compared to 994.35 RMB on April 31 [3]. - The average price of Guojiao 1573 (52 degrees/500ml) also experienced an increase [3]. Inventory Levels - The fluctuation in white liquor prices is closely related to inventory levels, with recent reports indicating a reduction in high inventory situations for several brands [3][4]. - Wuliangye reported that some terminal inventories are running at zero, while Luzhou Laojiao stated that their inventory situation is currently safe and controllable [4]. Market Dynamics - The overall sales of premium liquor are slowing down, with a notable decline in demand for business and corporate group purchases [7]. - Despite the holiday season, the overall sales performance remains subdued, with many companies adjusting their revenue growth targets to align with macroeconomic indicators [7][8]. E-commerce Impact - The upcoming "618" e-commerce festival is expected to exert further pressure on retail prices, despite a slight price increase for high-end liquors during the Dragon Boat Festival [9]. - Analysts predict that while online sales may see growth during the "618" event, profit margins will be squeezed due to price reductions and high inventory levels among offline distributors [9].