Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is on the brink of recession, with significant warnings from Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi regarding employment data and economic indicators [1][3]. Employment Data - Although the U.S. has not yet entered a technical recession, the labor market shows signs of distress, with employment data stagnating since May [3]. - Over 53% of industries reported layoffs in July, indicating a potential recessionary signal [3]. - The U.S. unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000 [5]. Economic Policies - Zandi attributes the economic downturn to policies from the Trump administration, particularly tariffs and immigration policies, which are seen as major contributors to the current economic challenges [5]. - There is a possibility of improvement if detrimental economic policies are lifted quickly, but this seems increasingly unlikely [5]. Job Market Adjustments - Recent revisions to employment data have shown a substantial downward adjustment, with May and June's job additions revised down from 144,000 and 147,000 to 19,000 and 14,000, respectively, indicating a cooling job market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in the Federal Reserve's stance from hawkish to dovish, indicating a potential resumption of interest rate cuts due to weakening economic data and external pressures, with expectations for a possible rate cut as early as September 2024 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve has paused its interest rate cuts after a series of reductions in late 2024, with the federal funds rate remaining in the 4.25%-4.5% range, reflecting a dilemma between preventing economic recession and controlling inflation [3][4]. - Recent changes in the economic environment have led to increased signals of a dovish shift within the Federal Reserve, with market predictions suggesting a potential rate cut in September [3][4]. Economic Indicators and Influences - Economic data shows signs of weakening, with the manufacturing PMI dropping from 52.9 in June to 49.8 in July, and non-farm payrolls in July only adding 73,000 jobs, significantly below expectations [7][8]. - Tariff impacts on inflation have been relatively mild, with 64% of tariff costs absorbed by U.S. companies, leading to a manageable inflation environment, as indicated by the PCE price index showing a year-on-year increase of 2.6% in June [9]. Political and Internal Pressures - Former President Trump has exerted pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates, arguing that lower rates would benefit the economy and his political standing ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [10]. - The internal dynamics of the Federal Reserve have shifted, with an increase in dovish voices among its members, influenced by both external political pressures and changing economic conditions [10][11]. Future Rate Cut Expectations - The upcoming rate cuts are expected to be preventive rather than reactive, with a high probability (91.5%) of a 25 basis point cut in September, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy [12][19]. - The anticipated rate cuts may occur 2-3 times within the year, totaling 50-75 basis points, as the Federal Reserve aims to maintain flexibility in response to evolving economic conditions [20]. Global and Chinese Market Implications - The resumption of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is likely to have a positive impact on global and Chinese financial markets, with expectations of a weaker dollar and potential capital inflows into emerging markets [21][22]. - China's monetary policy may gain new room for easing, with potential for further rate cuts and a favorable environment for the renminbi to appreciate against the dollar [25][26].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is signaling a shift from a hawkish to a dovish stance, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts starting as early as September 2024 [1][2][20] - The Fed's decision-making is influenced by various factors, including economic data indicating a cooling economy, inflation expectations, and external political pressures [4][6][21] - The internal dynamics of the Federal Reserve are changing, with an increasing number of officials supporting a dovish approach, reflecting a shift in the balance of power within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [3][6][7] Group 2 - Recent economic indicators show that high interest rates are negatively impacting consumer spending, employment, and investment, suggesting a potential economic downturn [4][5] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is relatively mild, with a significant portion of tariff costs absorbed by U.S. businesses rather than consumers, indicating that inflation risks remain manageable [5][20] - The Fed's potential interest rate cuts are seen as preventive measures rather than reactive responses to a crisis, with expectations of a gradual approach to lowering rates [11][15][18] Group 3 - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Fed are expected to have a positive impact on global financial markets, although the extent of this impact may vary depending on other geopolitical and economic factors [20][21] - For China, the Fed's actions could provide new opportunities for monetary easing, potentially leading to a recovery in the renminbi and increased foreign investment in Chinese assets [21][22]

4月2日，唐纳德·特朗普在白宫玫瑰园宣布关税政策时手持对等关税公告牌。图片来源：Kent Nishimura— Bloomberg/Getty Images 穆迪分析首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示，虽然联邦政府有望从唐纳德·特朗普的关税措施中获得可观的财 政收入，但这并不是一项可靠的资金来源，尤其是在经济衰退时期。 经济衰退或许会提前发生。本月初，赞迪警告称经济已濒临衰退边缘。 耶鲁大学预算实验室（Yale's Budget Lab）的数据显示，当前平均实际关税税率已达20.2%，创1911年以 来的新高。基于现有关税收入测算，关税年创收规模应约达3,000亿美元。 尽管这远不足以填补预计今年将扩至近2万亿美元的联邦预算赤字，但仍然是一个重要的收入来源。然 而，为什么不能将关税收入作为长期收入来源？ 在上周三专注削减国债的无党派组织"协和联盟"（Concord Coalition）旗下的最新一期《面向未来》 （Facing the Future）播客节目中，赞迪强调关税政策经行政令实施，而且可能被随时撤销。 此外，所谓"对等关税"正面临司法质疑，质疑者主张其不在《国际紧急经济权力法》（International ...

至此，国内成品油价格现已经历十六轮调整，呈现"六涨六跌四搁浅"格局。涨跌互抵后，年内汽、柴油 价格整体分别较2024年底下跌225元/吨、215元/吨。本轮计价周期内，国际原油价格先涨后跌。据分析 机构介绍，全球非农数据低于市场预期，经济衰退担忧存在，且沙特带领的欧佩克+(OPEC+)积极增 产，供应端过剩预期较强，促使原油价格偏弱波动。此外，叠加地缘政治因素影响，油价进一步下跌， 对应的原油变化率在正值范围内高位回落至低位。 下一次调价窗口将在8月26日24时开启。隆众资讯表示，以当前的国际原油价格水平计算，下一轮成品 油调价开局将呈现大幅下调趋势。展望后市，OPEC+增产带来的利空氛围仍在，且美俄领导人即将会 晤，俄乌局势有缓和契机，叠加全球经济表现依然疲软。整体来看，预计下一轮成品油调价下调概率较 大。 商报讯(记者朱光函)昨天下午，记者从浙江省发改委官网了解到，根据国家发展改革委官网新闻发布中 心公布的《2025年8月12日国内成品油价格按机制不作调整》，8月12日的前10个工作日平均价格与7月 29日前10个工作日平均价格相比，同时考虑7月29日未调价金额，累计调价金额每吨不足50元。根据 《石油价 ...

分析机构称，后市OPEC+增产带来的利空氛围仍在，且美俄领导人即将会晤，俄乌局势有缓和契机， 叠加全球经济表现依然疲软，预计下一轮油价下调概率较大。 本轮计价周期内，国际原油价格先涨后跌。据分析机构介绍，全球非农数据低于市场预期，经济衰退担 忧存在，且沙特带领的欧佩克+（OPEC+）积极增产，供应端过剩预期较强，促使原油价格偏弱波动。 此外，叠加地缘政治因素影响，油价进一步下跌，对应的原油变化率在正值范围内高位回落至低位。 下一次调价窗口将在8月26日24时开启。隆众资讯表示，以当前的国际原油价格水平计算，下一轮成品 油调价开局将呈现大幅下调趋势。展望后市，OPEC+增产带来的利空氛围仍在，且美俄领导人即将会 晤，俄乌局势有缓和契机，叠加全球经济表现依然疲软。整体来看，预计下一轮成品油调价下调概率较 大。 至此，国内成品油价格现已经历十六轮调整，呈现"六涨六跌四搁浅"格局。涨跌互抵后，年内汽、柴油 价格整体分别较2024年底下跌225元/吨、215元/吨。 由于上一轮成品油价刚经历了一波调价搁浅，本次继续搁浅，意味着全国大多数地区车柴价格将继续保 持7元-7.2元/升，92号汽油零售价7.4元-7.5元/升的 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q1 2025, which was worse than market expectations, highlighting rising uncertainties due to government tariff policies [1] - In Q4 2024, the U.S. GDP grew by 2.4%, indicating a significant slowdown in economic momentum [1] - The contraction in Q1 2025 was primarily driven by a substantial increase in imports and a decrease in government spending, with net exports negatively impacting GDP by 4.83 percentage points [1] Group 2 - Personal consumption expenditures, which account for about 70% of the U.S. economy, grew by 1.8% in Q1 2025, down from 4.0% in Q4 2024, contributing 1.21 percentage points to economic growth [1] - Federal government spending decreased by 5.1%, which detracted 0.33 percentage points from economic growth [1] - Non-residential fixed investment increased by 9.8%, contributing 1.29 percentage points to economic growth, reflecting a positive investment trend despite overall economic concerns [1] Group 3 - The broad imposition of tariffs by the U.S. government has led to widespread concerns among economists and business leaders regarding the economic outlook [2] - The uncertainty created by tariff policies is causing businesses to delay investment decisions and contributing to a sharp decline in consumer confidence [2] - There are predictions that the U.S. economy may enter a recession in the second half of the year due to these factors [2]

Core Insights - Moody's latest analysis indicates that the U.S. is at a critical juncture of economic recession, with 53% of industries initiating layoffs, except for the healthcare sector which continues to see job growth [1] - The employment market has contracted significantly for three consecutive months, with July 2025 non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, falling short of market expectations by 37,000 jobs [4] - A systemic weakening of economic indicators suggests an imminent recession risk, with notable consumer weakness and a manufacturing PMI below the growth threshold for six months [4] Employment Trends - The July 2025 non-farm payrolls were revised downwards, with May and June figures adjusted to 19,000 and 14,000 respectively, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs [4] - 215 out of 400 industry classifications have experienced job reductions, marking the fourth time since 1970 that this ratio has exceeded 50% [4] Economic Indicators - Retail sales in July showed a minimal increase of 0.1%, while real consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, exhibited negative growth [4] - The manufacturing sector is under pressure, with a PMI of 48.3, the lowest since February 2024, and new orders dropping to 46.1 [4] - The housing market is also struggling, with 30-year mortgage rates rising to 7.25%, leading to existing home sales falling to an annualized rate of 3.87 million, the lowest since the beginning of 2025 [4] Policy and Structural Issues - The Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy, with a federal funds rate of 5.25%-5.5% amid a 3.2% inflation rate, limits policy flexibility [5] - Historical policy missteps, such as the steel and aluminum tariffs and immigration reform, have led to increased manufacturing costs and reduced labor supply, contributing to a 9.3% year-over-year increase in service sector wages [5] - Corporate profit margins have contracted to 7.8%, the lowest level since 2008, indicating significant economic strain [5] Future Outlook - The upcoming three quarters will be critical in determining the depth and breadth of the recession cycle, with traditional monetary policy tools nearing ineffectiveness [5]

美国摩根大通银行经济分析师在上周发布的研报中写道，就业数据显示，私营部门过去三个月的招聘人 数减少至平均5.2万，除医疗和教育以外，其他行业招聘停滞。"我们一直强调，如此大幅度的劳动力需 求下滑是经济衰退的预警信号。"（完）（新华社专特稿） 赞迪说，就业数据是最重要的单一数据，而这一数据自5月以来几乎停滞不前。 美国劳工部8月1日公布的非农业部门就业数据显著弱于市场预期。7月美国失业率环比升高0.1个百分点 至4.2%，当月非农业部门新增就业岗位7.3万，低于市场预期的11万。同时，美国5月和6月非农业部门 新增就业岗位数量从此前公布的14.4万和14.7万分别大幅下调至1.9万和1.4万，显示美国就业市场明显降 温。 美国总统特朗普随后指责美国就业数据遭人为操控，并以此理由解雇时任劳工统计局局长埃丽卡·麦肯 塔弗。 赞迪说，"7月，超过53%的行业正在裁员，仅医疗保健业的就业岗位在显著增加"。 穆迪称美国超半数行业裁员 卜晓明 美国穆迪分析公司首席经济分析师马克·赞迪说，美国超过半数行业已开始裁员。 他10日在社交平台X上发文称，经济衰退的起点往往事后才能看清。他认为，判定美国经济衰退何时开 始和结束的官方 ...

Group 1 - The chief economist of Moody's, Mark Zandi, stated that over half of the industries in the U.S. have begun layoffs, indicating a potential economic downturn [1] - Zandi emphasized that the official determination of the start and end of a recession is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, which defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity lasting several months [1] - Employment data is highlighted as the most critical single data point, with stagnation observed since May, and July's non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000 [1] Group 2 - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, with substantial downward revisions to previous months' job additions [1] - Zandi noted that over 53% of industries are currently laying off workers, with only the healthcare sector showing significant job growth [1] - A report from JPMorgan indicated that private sector hiring has averaged 52,000 over the past three months, with hiring stagnating in all sectors except healthcare and education, signaling a warning for economic recession [2]