Group 1 - The US dollar experienced its worst first half since 1973, but Bank of America suggests limited downside for the dollar in the second half of the year [1] - The analysis indicates that the dollar's price movements are no longer highly correlated with the probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts, but there remains a +71% correlation with the market pricing of the Fed's 2025 interest rates during US trading hours [1] - If the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates for the remainder of the year, it is expected to provide moderate support for the dollar during US trading hours [1] Group 2 - Asian investors have been the primary sellers of the dollar this year, but their motivation to sell may weaken as they await new catalysts for a bearish dollar trend [1] - In the European trading session, there is still significant room for dollar depreciation, which may require global stock markets to outperform US markets for this to occur [1] - Foreign investors' motivation to increase holdings in other currencies to hedge against dollar assets has diminished, despite global stock markets performing better than US markets in Q1 [2]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley estimates that the average tariff rate in the U.S. will rise from 13.4% to 14.6% due to new tariffs announced by Trump [1] - Deutsche Bank's independent analysis suggests that the new average tariff rate could exceed 18% [1] - If Trump continues to implement additional trade measures, the overall average tariff rate in the U.S. could increase by up to 6 percentage points [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs indicates that the dollar may soon trade as a "high-risk" currency, but the permanent shift in its safe-haven appeal has not yet been observed [2] - Citigroup analysts believe that Trump's tariffs will abruptly close the window for copper exports to the U.S., potentially lasting through the remainder of 2025 [3] - Barclays warns that proposed tariffs on pharmaceuticals could lead to significant price increases and shortages, impacting consumers directly [7] Group 3 - UBS has closed its long positions in U.S. Treasuries, waiting for higher yields to re-enter the market [5] - Standard Chartered reports that reserve managers appear to be deliberately increasing their dollar holdings amid pressures on the currency [6] - Singapore's OCBC Bank predicts a shift towards a more fragmented global order, leading to sustained inflation and a weaker dollar over the next five to ten years [9] Group 4 - The Dutch Cooperative Bank notes a rebound in the dollar, with expectations for the euro to rise to 1.20 in the medium term [10] - Citic Securities highlights opportunities in the copper sector as prices are expected to return to fundamental levels amid low inventories [11] - Citic Jian Investment reports ongoing global fund rebalancing, with continued outflows from U.S. equities [12]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have continued to decline, reaching a low of $3282, influenced by expectations of high tariffs in the U.S. which may increase inflation and lead the Federal Reserve to maintain stable interest rates, thereby supporting rising U.S. Treasury yields and stabilizing the dollar near a two-week low [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices experienced a high early in the day but entered a consolidation phase, eventually breaking below the key support level of $3297 and continuing to decline to around $3287, indicating a weakening short-term trend [3] - The current market sentiment is fragile due to trade tariff concerns, with a focus on the FOMC meeting minutes for insights into the future direction of the dollar and precious metals [1][3] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The recent price action has disrupted the bullish structure of the right shoulder in a four-hour head and shoulders pattern, with the daily candle closing bearish, suggesting potential for further declines [3] - Short-term resistance levels are identified at $3300-$3307, while support is found at $3280-$3277, indicating a preference for buying on dips and selling on rebounds [3][4] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategy includes buying on a pullback to $3280 with a stop loss at $3270 and a target of $3300-$3320 [4] - An alternative strategy recommends selling on a rebound to $3320 with a stop loss at $3330 and a target of $3295-$3280 [5]

【基本面消息】 数据显示，7月9日上海黄金现货价格报价763.39元/克，相较于期货主力价格（766.82元/克）贴水3.43 元/克。 美国总统特朗普发文表示，关税将于2025年8月1日开始实施，"该日期没有变化，以后也不会改变"。可 能未来两天向欧盟发征税函。 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 7月9日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 766.82 | -1.00% | 310838 | 181258 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 日本5月经常项目顺差3.44万亿日元，同比增长16.5%。出口额同比下滑1.4%，进口额减少7.5%，贸易收 支逆差5223亿日元。 【机构观点】 宁证期货：全球多国回应特朗普最新关税措施。日本和韩国表示"遗憾"，但均表达了通过谈判解决问题 的意愿。泰国对关税税率感到惊讶，南非总统对关税计算方式提出异议，而巴西总统态度强硬，批评美 方做法"错误且不负责任"。德国财长警告称，若不能与美国达成公平的贸易协议，欧盟准备采取反制措 施。评：虽然各国对关税均有所 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index is currently on the rise, reported at 97.69 with an increase of 0.20%, driven by a decrease in risk aversion and a slowdown in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations [1] - Japan and South Korea are attempting to negotiate with the US to mitigate the impact of President Trump's planned significant tariff increases starting in early August [1][2] - Investors are anticipating a 50 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, with actions expected to begin in October [3] Group 2 - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper to boost US copper production, escalating the trade war and warning 14 countries of higher tariffs [2] - The market is awaiting the latest policy meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve, with several officials scheduled to speak this week, providing insights into economic and policy directions [2] - The dollar index is facing resistance around the 99 area, with key support levels identified at 97.20-40, and upward pressure noted near 98.00 [3]

内阁会议结束后，美国商务部长卢特尼克(Howard Lutnick)说，商务部已完成对铜进口状况的调查，他 预计新关税"可能在7月底或8月1日实施"。 美国总统特朗普于周一再度挥动关税大棒，对包括日本、韩国在内的14国开征25%进口税。尽管短线提 振美元走势，但市场迅速意识到关税成本终将由美国进口商承担，引发美元抛售潮。此外，本周三即将 公布的FOMC会议纪要亦引发关注，市场期望透视美联储连续四次维持利率不变背后的逻辑。 美国总统特朗普(Donald Trump)表示计划对进口铜征收50%的关税，此举可能会引发全球金属市场供应 链的巨大波动，随后纽约铜期货价格飙升。此外，特朗普还宣布将对进口药品征收高达200%的惩罚性 关税。这标志着特朗普政府对外贸易政策进入新一轮强硬升级。 美国总统特朗普当地时间周二(7月8日)表示，将对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的新关税，但没有透露 新关税生效具体时间。特朗普当天在白宫召开内阁会议时说："我认为，我们将把铜的关税提高到 50%"。 周三（7月9日）亚市盘中，美元指数持稳，最新美元指数报97.53，涨幅0.04%，特朗普称将对进口铜征 收高额关税，扩大贸易战范围，美国最高 ...

Group 1: Macro Analysis - The narrative that the dollar will enter a prolonged decline akin to the 70s and 80s needs reassessment, as the fastest decline of the dollar may have already passed[13] - The U.S. economy's growth rate relative to Europe and Japan remains superior, suggesting potential dollar strength in the medium term[13] - The dollar index has shown a long-term divergence from the U.S. economic share, with the index rising despite a declining economic share post-2008 financial crisis[15] Group 2: Fixed Income Market Insights - In July, the bond market is expected to face downward pressure, with credit outperforming rates[29] - Government bond net financing is projected to increase to between 1.5 trillion and 1.7 trillion yuan in July due to accelerated local government bond issuance[27] - The average decline in the 10-year government bond yield from 2021 to 2024 is approximately 4.4 basis points, indicating a trend of decreasing yields[29] Group 3: Equity Market Trends - The total position of stock funds increased to 94.90%, up by 97 basis points from the previous week, indicating a bullish sentiment[36] - The average return of stock funds this week was 1.31%, reflecting positive market performance[38] - The Hang Seng Index saw a decline of 1.52%, suggesting a mixed outlook for Hong Kong equities[39] Group 4: CIPS Regulatory Changes - The People's Bank of China is revising CIPS rules to enhance participant management and flexibility, allowing for easier access to the system[43] - The CIPS system processed 821.69 million transactions worth 175.49 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a 42.60% increase year-on-year[42] - The new rules include risk management requirements and clarify the roles of domestic and foreign participants in the CIPS framework[43]

Group 1 - The focus of the global financial market has shifted back to the USD as investors are concerned about the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the potential for a soft landing of the US economy [1] - The market sentiment has changed from a bullish outlook to a more cautious stance, with the USD index fluctuating around the 105 mark [1] Group 2 - Expectations for a shift in Federal Reserve policy have increased due to ongoing declines in US inflation and a cooling labor market, with over 70% of market bets on a 25 basis point rate cut in September [2] - The USD index has retreated from its yearly high of 107 to around 105, leading to a rebound in non-USD currencies, particularly the Euro, Pound, and Yen [2] Group 3 - Despite the USD's decline, the US economy remains resilient, with strong consumer spending and technology sector investments, suggesting that any rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may be gradual and aimed at risk management rather than responding to a recession [3] - Future USD movements are likely to reflect a range-bound pattern, benefiting from economic stability while being constrained by rate cut expectations [3] Group 4 - The current USD pullback presents new opportunities for investors, with non-USD currencies expected to continue their rebound in the short term [4] - Long-term, global risk aversion is likely to support the USD's position, especially amid ongoing geopolitical risks [4] - Investors are advised to monitor key data releases such as CPI, PPI, and non-farm payrolls, and adjust their positions flexibly to avoid chasing market trends [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-8 4）中国财政部宣布，自7月6日起，在政府采购预算金额4500万元人 民币以上的医疗器械时，确需采购进口产品的，在履行法定程序后， 应当排除欧盟企业（不包括在华欧资企业）参与。 美元回暖，⾦价承压 金价周一跌至多日低点，接近3300美元，料主要受美元走强的影响。 重点资讯： 1）美国总统特朗普周日表示，美国即将在未来几天内敲定几项贸易 协定，并将在7月9日前通知其他几个国家更高的关税税率，并定于8 月1日生效。 2）中国央行6月黄金储备再增加7万盎司至7390万盎司，已连续八个 月增持；当月黄金储备对应的美元价值也环比增加9.4亿至2429.3亿 美元。不过整体来看，黄金在中国外汇储备中所占比例仍然偏低。 3）美国总统特朗普表示，美国将对任何与金砖国家 "反美政策 " 保持一致的国家额外征收10%的关税。 5）欧盟执委会发言人周一表示，欧盟执委会主席冯德莱恩与美国总 统特朗普周日进行了 "良好的交流"，欧盟的目标仍然是在7月9日之 前与美国达成贸易协议。 价格逻辑： 金价周一跌至多日低点，接近3300美元，主要受美元 ...

金十数据7月7日讯，美国财长贝森特表示，美国将在不导致通胀的情况下实现经济增长。将在未来48小 时内宣布几项贸易相关消息。昨晚我收到了许多新的提议。许多人在谈判中改变了立场。在谈及关于财 政部和美联储的职位时，贝森特说，我将按照总统的意愿行事。而在利率方面，他表示，市场可能在将 特朗普对利率的观点计入价格。这不仅仅是美联储主席的问题，而是整个委员会的问题。（就美元走 势）货币涨跌是自然现象，并非异常波动。 美财长：未来48小时将公布几项贸易相关消息 ...