Core Insights - In September, the U.S. private sector experienced the largest decline in employment in two and a half years, indicating a weakening labor market, exacerbated by a government shutdown that has led to data reporting issues [1][3] - The ADP report revealed a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, contrasting with economists' expectations of an increase of 45,000 jobs [1][3] - The August employment data was revised down from an initial increase of 54,000 to a decrease of 3,000 [1] Employment Sector Analysis - Multiple sectors saw job reductions in September, with the education and healthcare sectors adding 33,000 jobs, partially offsetting the overall decline [3][4] - The leisure and hospitality sector lost 19,000 jobs due to the end of the vacation season, while other service sectors decreased by 16,000 jobs, professional and business services by 13,000, trade, transportation, and utilities by 7,000, and construction by 5,000 [3][4] - Service providers reduced 28,000 jobs, while goods-producing industries saw a decrease of 3,000 jobs [4] Business Size Impact - Small businesses with fewer than 50 employees lost 40,000 jobs, while larger companies with 500 or more employees added 33,000 jobs [4] Economic Growth Context - Despite a strong economic growth rate of 3.8% in Q2, the employment data reflects a cautious hiring attitude among U.S. employers [4] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projects a Q3 growth rate of 3.9% [4] Labor Market Concerns - The current unemployment rate remains relatively low at 4.3%, but concerns about the labor market are increasing, with risks of labor demand falling below supply [6] - The market had anticipated an increase of 51,000 jobs in the upcoming Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) non-farm payroll report, which includes government jobs [6] Wage Growth Insights - Despite the slowdown in hiring, wages grew by 4.5% year-over-year in September, remaining stable compared to August, although the wage growth rate for job switchers fell to 6.6%, down 0.5 percentage points from August [6] Data Reporting Adjustments - The unexpected decline in employment numbers may also be attributed to data analysis issues, with ADP recalibrating past employment statistics based on the BLS's September benchmark data [6][7] - The QCEW data, which is used for annual adjustments of overall employment data, indicated a significant reduction of 911,000 jobs as of March this year [7]

Group 1 - The risk of a U.S. government shutdown has significantly increased following the Senate's rejection of the Democratic funding bill, with a Republican proposal for a seven-week funding extension set for a vote [1][2] - If Congress fails to pass a temporary funding bill by the deadline, parts of the federal government will shut down, affecting hundreds of thousands of federal employees who may be forced to take unpaid leave [1][2] - The Trump administration has outlined detailed plans for dealing with the shutdown, including the suspension of economic data releases by the Labor Department during the shutdown period [1][4] Group 2 - Analysts warn that the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy due to the potential government shutdown is driving investors towards precious metals, resulting in record-high gold prices [3] - The dollar index has been declining, with a reported value of 97.7704, indicating a potential four-day losing streak [4] - At least eight U.S. cabinet departments have prepared detailed shutdown plans, affecting over 400,000 non-essential employees [4][6] Group 3 - The Department of Health and Human Services has stated that new patients will not be accepted for clinical research during the shutdown, and public health information will be limited [6] - The Labor Department will suspend the release of key economic data, including the non-farm payroll report, which is scheduled for October 3 [6] - The Social Security Administration will place approximately 6,000 of its 51,000 employees on unpaid leave during the shutdown [7] Group 4 - The Department of Veterans Affairs will continue benefits and medical care during the shutdown, but maintenance of cemeteries will cease [8] - The IRS will continue operations during the shutdown due to funding secured through the Inflation Reduction Act, which provides funding until 2031 [8] - Deutsche Bank estimates that a full government shutdown could reduce quarterly annualized GDP growth by approximately 0.2 percentage points per week if 800,000 federal employees are furloughed [8]

Group 1 - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. fell to 94.2 in September, down 3.6 points from August and below the expected 96, marking the lowest level since April [1] - The assessment of the current economic situation by consumers has significantly deteriorated, with the index for "current conditions" reaching a one-year low, indicating a rapid decline in public confidence [1] - The percentage of respondents who believe job opportunities are "plentiful" dropped to 26.9%, a decrease of over 3 percentage points from the previous month, while those who find jobs "hard to get" remained at 19.1% [1] Group 2 - The number of job openings in the U.S. increased slightly to 7.23 million in August, but year-over-year, job openings decreased by 422,000, a decline of 5.5%, indicating a retreat from peak hiring demand [2] - The resignation rate in August decreased by 75,000, reflecting a reduced willingness of workers to change jobs, which suggests a tightening labor market [2] - Federal Reserve officials are cautious about balancing inflation and employment, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and December, totaling a 50 basis point reduction for the year [2] Group 3 - The risk of a government shutdown looms, with a deadline of September 30 for Congress to pass a temporary funding bill, which could lead to a halt in economic data releases from key statistical agencies [3] - If the government shuts down, critical economic data such as the non-farm payroll report and consumer price index may be delayed, impacting the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed policy decisions [3] - Historical precedent shows that during a previous government shutdown in 2013, the employment report was delayed, highlighting the potential consequences of a data vacuum [3] Group 4 - Political tensions between Democrats and Republicans over budget issues remain high, with efforts to push preferred funding bills amidst sharp criticisms regarding healthcare funding cuts [4] - The lack of scheduled meetings between the White House and congressional leaders raises concerns about the potential for a last-minute compromise to avoid a government shutdown [5] - The political risks and market impacts of a prolonged deadlock are significant, even if Congress acts quickly to restore government operations after a technical shutdown [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the precious metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin markets. It takes into account factors such as market trends, supply and demand dynamics, policy impacts, and geopolitical risks, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each metal [3][4][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold reached a new high of over $3,830 per ounce, closing up 1.97%. London silver hit a high of $47.174, closing up 1.9%. The Shanghai gold and silver futures also reached new highs [3]. - **Important Information**: The US government faces a shutdown crisis, which may affect economic data release and the Fed's October monetary policy decision. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is 89.8% [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US government shutdown risk and the expectation of interest rate cuts have increased market risk aversion, leading to a strong upward trend in precious metals. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday in China, it is advisable to reduce positions at high prices [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Take profits at high prices before the holiday and hold light positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Buy deep out - of - the - money call options or collar call options [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE copper 2511 contract closed up 1.96%. LME copper closed down 2.19%. LME inventory decreased by 500 tons, while COMEX inventory increased by 923 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US government may shut down, and different Fed officials have different views on interest rates [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Grasberg accident has exacerbated the tightness of copper ore supply. Domestic production has declined, and consumption is weak. The long - term supply - demand structure has changed [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a low - buying strategy for long positions. Hold off - market positive arbitrage positions. Wait and see for options [8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2601 contract fell. Spot prices in various regions declined [10]. - **Important Information**: Eight departments proposed to strengthen resource exploration and rationally layout alumina projects. The national alumina operating capacity increased, and the import price decreased [10][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy impacts on capacity investment are limited. The import window is open, and the fundamentals are in surplus, so the price is expected to be weak [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to trend weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [14][16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose. Spot prices remained flat [16]. - **Important Information**: Policies affected the recycled aluminum industry. The exchange's aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and downstream enterprises had different holiday arrangements [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The tight supply of scrap aluminum restricts raw material stocking. Downstream holidays are extended, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the futures price to fluctuate with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [19]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE aluminum 2511 contract rose. Spot prices in various regions declined [21]. - **Important Information**: US economic data showed resilience. Chinese aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and photovoltaic installation declined. Downstream enterprises' holiday and procurement situations varied [22][23]. - **Logic Analysis**: US economic data affects interest rate cut expectations. Domestic inventory decreased, but consumption is not strong. The price is expected to fluctuate, and there may be inventory accumulation after the holiday [24]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc rose, and SHFE zinc rose. Spot premiums increased [26]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc inventory decreased, and a mining company obtained a new mining license [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: In October, domestic zinc concentrate production may decrease, and imports are expected to decline. Refined zinc supply may increase, and consumption is not expected to improve significantly. Overseas inventory reduction supports the price, but there are risks of overseas delivery [27][28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Control positions before the holiday. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell, and SHFE lead fell slightly. Spot prices declined, and downstream procurement was okay [32]. - **Important Information**: Lead inventory decreased, lead battery enterprise production was mixed, and the holiday may lead to a decline in production [32][33][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The lead concentrate market is in tight balance, and scrap lead prices are likely to rise. Primary lead production may be affected by losses, while secondary lead production may increase. Consumption in the peak season is not as expected [35]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to fluctuate weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel rose, and SHFE nickel rose. LME nickel inventory increased, and premiums of different brands changed [38]. - **Important Information**: Russian nickel entered the US market through Europe. Indonesia's actions affected the nickel price [38][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Indonesia's actions drove a slight rebound in the nickel price. Downstream consumption is expected to be flat, and the supply is still in surplus. It is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday [40]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41][42]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel rose, and index positions decreased. Spot prices were in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A Korean and a Chinese company will jointly build a stainless steel plant in Indonesia [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Stainless steel followed the nickel price to rebound slightly. Supply pressure remains, but inventory is lower than last year, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday [44]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [44]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures fell, and some spot prices declined [46]. - **Important Information**: A silicon project started construction [46]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle." The supply is not very sensitive to price changes. There are rumors of increased production, and the price may回调 in the short term and then can be bought [46]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term callback and then buy. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits. No arbitrage opportunity [47]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly and fell slightly. Spot prices were stable [49]. - **Important Information**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a symposium [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: Spot prices are stable, but there are pressures on contract delivery and inventory accumulation. The price may回调 in the short term, and it is recommended to exit long positions and then re - enter after the holiday [49]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term callback, exit long positions and re - enter after the holiday. Conduct reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [50]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose, and positions and warehouse receipts increased. Spot prices declined [52][53]. - **Important Information**: A lithium mining company modified a supply agreement, Tesla entered the Indian market, and a lithium project was put into production [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: October demand is strong, supply growth is narrowing, and inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate during the holiday, and the situation may change after the holiday. It is recommended to hold an empty position [52][53][54]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [55]. Tin - **Market Review**: SHFE tin rose, and spot prices declined. Consumption was weak [56]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown risk, Fed officials' views, and Indonesia's closure of illegal mining points affected the market [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US situation and Indonesia's actions affected the price. The tin concentrate supply is still tight, demand is weak, and inventory decreased. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production and consumption recovery [57][59]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term strong - side fluctuation, be cautious about Indonesia's event. Wait and see for options [59].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates from near zero to a high of 5% since March 2022, yet inflation remains above the target of 2% [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve prefers to slow economic growth rather than allow prices to rise [3]. - The Fed's commitment to ensuring inflation returns to 2% indicates that monetary policy will not be relaxed for a long time [4]. - Despite a current inflation rate around 3%, it is still significantly above the Fed's target, suggesting that the rate hike cycle is not over [4]. Group 2: Economic Implications - High interest rates historically create challenges for the economy, and current inflation is largely influenced by external factors such as global oil prices and supply chain issues, rather than domestic overproduction [4]. - There is skepticism regarding the effectiveness of rate hikes in addressing inflation driven by external factors, with concerns that this approach may lead to economic recession and increased unemployment [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text about the report industry investment rating. Core Views - The stock market's high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence, and short - term indices face uncertainty due to reduced trading volume, but in the long - run, it's advisable to buy on dips as policy support remains unchanged [4]. - The bond market may improve in the fourth - quarter supply - demand pattern and is likely to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - Precious metals are likely to benefit from the Fed's future easing cycle, and it's recommended to buy on dips, especially for silver [9]. - For most metals in the non - ferrous sector, prices are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, trade situations, and Fed policy expectations, with different short - term trends [12][14][17]. - In the black building materials sector, prices are expected to remain weakly oscillating before the Fourth Plenary Session, but may have long - term potential [42]. - In the energy - chemical sector, different products have different trends based on supply - demand, inventory, and policy factors [54][56]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products' prices are influenced by supply, demand, and seasonal factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [79][81]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market News**: The Politburo met to discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the NDRC is promoting a 500 billion yuan policy financial tool [2]. - **Base Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have specific base ratios [3]. - **Strategy**: After a continuous rise, high - flying sectors have diverged, and short - term indices face uncertainty, but long - term buying on dips is recommended [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market News**: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts had specific price changes on Monday, and relevant policies were announced [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 288.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 4.81 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy**: The bond market may oscillate in the fourth quarter, and its performance is related to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Gold and silver prices in different markets had specific changes, and the US government faces a "shutdown" crisis [8]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to buy on dips, especially for silver, and use put options for risk hedging during holidays [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: LME copper and SHFE copper prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [11]. - **Strategy**: Short - term copper prices may continue to oscillate strongly, with potential risks from trade situations [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [13]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices have strong support at the bottom, affected by trade situations and Fed policy [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: SHFE zinc and LME zinc prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [15]. - **Strategy**: Short - term SHFE zinc is expected to be weakly running [17]. Lead - **Market News**: SHFE lead and LME lead prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [18]. - **Strategy**: SHFE lead is expected to show a wide - range oscillating pattern [19]. Nickel - **Market News**: SHFE nickel prices oscillated, and spot and cost data were provided [20]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended, and buying on dips can be considered if prices fall enough [21]. Tin - **Market News**: SHFE tin prices oscillated, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [22]. - **Strategy**: Short - term tin prices may remain high and oscillate, and observation is recommended [23]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: Carbonate lithium prices changed, and contract and spot data were provided [24]. - **Strategy**: Carbonate lithium is likely to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to supply and demand [24]. Alumina - **Market News**: Alumina index prices changed, and base and overseas price data were provided [25]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless steel contract prices changed, and spot and inventory data were provided [28]. - **Strategy**: Stainless steel prices may face downward pressure if supply - demand imbalance worsens [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: AD2511 contract prices changed, and inventory and price difference data were provided [29]. - **Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy futures are expected to be weaker than spot, with support from scrap aluminum prices [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil contract and spot prices changed, and inventory data were provided [32]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are likely to remain weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron ore contract prices changed, and spot and base data were provided [34]. - **Strategy**: Short - term iron ore prices may be affected by supply, demand, and inventory after the holiday [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: Glass and soda ash contract and spot prices changed, and inventory and position data were provided [36][38]. - **Strategy**: Glass is recommended to be viewed bullishly in the short - term, and soda ash is expected to oscillate [37][39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon contract prices changed, and spot and base data were provided [40]. - **Strategy**: Black building materials may first decline and then rise, and long - term buying opportunities may appear after the Fourth Plenary Session [42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon contract prices changed, and spot and inventory data were provided [44][47]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon may oscillate in the short - term, and polysilicon may decline in the short - term [46][48]. Energy - Chemical Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices were affected by factors such as coal prices and expected reserve sales [50]. - **Strategy**: A medium - term bullish view is held, but short - term observation is recommended [54]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude oil and refined oil contract prices changed, and inventory data were provided [55]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long - positions should be stopped, and observation is recommended [56]. Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol prices changed, and base and price difference data were provided [57]. - **Strategy**: Methanol fundamentals have improved marginally, and short - term long - positions can be considered on dips [58]. Urea - **Market News**: Urea prices changed, and base and price difference data were provided [59]. - **Strategy**: Urea is in a low - valuation and weak - driving situation, and long - positions can be considered on dips [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure benzene and styrene prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [61]. - **Strategy**: Styrene prices may stop falling during the seasonal peak season [62]. PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices changed, and cost, supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [63]. - **Strategy**: PVC has a poor supply - demand situation, and short - term short - positions can be considered on rallies [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene glycol prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [65]. - **Strategy**: Ethylene glycol may accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and short - positions can be considered on rallies [66]. PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [67]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation of PTA is recommended [69]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [70]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation of p - Xylene is recommended [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [72]. - **Strategy**: PE prices may oscillate upward [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [74]. - **Strategy**: PP has a supply - demand imbalance, and short - term no prominent contradictions [76]. Agricultural Products Live Hogs - **Market News**: Hog prices continued to decline, and supply and demand were expected to be stable [78]. - **Strategy**: Short - term hog prices may remain weak, and short - positions on near - month contracts are recommended [79]. Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices were stable or declined, and supply and demand were in a wait - and - see state [80]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation of eggs is recommended, and long - positions on far - month contracts can be considered after price declines [81]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: Soybean meal prices were stable, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [82]. - **Strategy**: Soybean meal is in a weakly oscillating state, and short - term declines may occur [83]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: Palm oil export and production data in Malaysia were provided, and domestic oils and fats oscillated [84]. - **Strategy**: Oils and fats may oscillate strongly in the medium - term, and buying on dips can be considered [85]. Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar futures prices oscillated, and spot prices and production forecasts were provided [86]. - **Strategy**: Sugar prices are expected to decline in the long - term, and short - term observation is recommended [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton futures prices declined, and spot prices and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [88][89]. - **Strategy**: Cotton prices are affected by multiple factors, and short - term observation is recommended [90].

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The domestic economic recovery has slowed, and attention should be paid to the impact of September PMI data, US tariff policies, and US economic data and Fed actions on the domestic market [3][4]. - During the National Day holiday, overseas markets may experience significant fluctuations, and attention should be paid to their impact on the domestic market [4]. - The short - term risk appetite in the domestic market may be suppressed by the US plan to impose additional tariffs on electronic chips, and attention should be paid to the impact on China and China's countermeasures [4]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to hold long positions in the short - term due to potential increased volatility [5]. - The steel market is likely to continue to compress profits and fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to post - holiday price and inventory data [6][7]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term and may decline in November - December [7]. - Coking coal prices are likely to show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend after the holiday [8]. - For non - ferrous metals and new energy products, prices are generally expected to oscillate, and caution is advised during the holiday [9][10][11]. - In the energy and chemical industry, there are various risks during the holiday, and attention should be paid to cost fluctuations and supply - demand changes [12][13]. - For agricultural products, there are uncertainties in the US soybean market, and the post - holiday performance of domestic bean and rapeseed meal and oils may be affected [15]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic economic recovery has slowed. Attention should be paid to September PMI data, US tariff policies on electronic chips, and the impact of US economic data and Fed actions on the domestic RMB exchange rate, stock market, and bond market during the National Day holiday [3]. - **Overseas Macro**: During the National Day holiday, important economic data in the US and Europe will be released, and Fed officials will speak. Attention should be paid to the impact of these on the global and domestic markets, as overseas markets may fluctuate significantly [4]. - **Stock Index**: The US plan to impose additional tariffs on electronic chips may suppress domestic risk appetite in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the specific US tariff policies, overseas economic data, Fed actions, and RMB exchange rate trends during the National Day holiday and their impact on A - shares [4]. - **Gold/Silver**: During the National Day holiday, important economic data will be released, and Fed officials will speak. The US tariff policy and geopolitical risks may increase short - term safe - haven demand, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the short - term [5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Before the National Day, steel prices declined due to lower - than - expected macro policies and pre - holiday risk - aversion. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is likely to continue to compress profits and oscillate within a range. Attention should be paid to post - holiday price fluctuations and inventory data [6][7]. - **Iron Ore**: Due to high iron - water production and pre - holiday restocking by steel mills, iron ore prices have been stronger than steel. In the short - term, prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, but may decline in November - December [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Due to high iron - water production and pre - holiday restocking, coking coal prices were strong in the first half of September and declined at the end of the month. After the holiday, prices are likely to show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The accident at the Grasberg copper mine has affected production, and copper prices have risen. Domestic production is high, but demand is facing challenges. Caution is advised during the holiday [9]. - **Aluminum**: Due to pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises, the social inventory has decreased. However, supply is rigid, and demand is weakening. Prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range, and caution is advised during the holiday [9]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are oscillating. Supply is tightening, but the supply is expected to increase in the future. It is recommended to be cautious and wait for opportunities to sell at high prices [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is slowly destocking, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Jiangxi lithium ore resource ruling [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply - demand fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to policy disturbances and cost support after the holiday [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - demand fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to policy disturbances and price support after the holiday [11]. Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil**: There are significant risks during the holiday. OPEC will hold a production decision - making meeting, and geopolitical factors and macro data may affect prices [12]. - **Polyester**: The downstream operating rate is low, and there is a risk of over - supply. Attention should be paid to possible production cuts and the impact of crude oil price fluctuations [12]. - **Methanol**: Inventory has started to decline. Attention should be paid to international device changes and inventory during the holiday [12]. - **Polyolefins**: The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to crude oil price fluctuations [13]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Attention should be paid to export policies and device changes [13]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The harvesting progress is slower than expected, and there are uncertainties in yield. Attention should be paid to the concentrated listing, export, and trade relations during the holiday [15]. - **Bean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean market will affect domestic bean meal cost expectations. If the US soybean market is stable, domestic bean meal may rebound after the holiday. Rapeseed meal is mainly affected by bean meal [15]. - **Oils**: There is a shortage of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports. The supply of palm oil is affected by production and export factors, and attention should be paid to international market changes [15].

Group 1: U.S. Film Industry and Tariff Policy - President Trump stated that the U.S. film industry is being "stolen" by other countries and announced a proposal to impose a 100% tariff on films produced outside the U.S. [1] - The announcement led to a decline in stock prices for major companies like Netflix and Warner Bros. [1] Group 2: U.S. Government Funding and Potential Shutdown - The U.S. government is facing a funding deadline, with both parties in Congress showing significant disagreement on budget negotiations [2][5] - If an agreement is not reached by the deadline, the government will run out of funds, leading to potential furloughs for hundreds of thousands of workers and the shutdown of many public services [6] Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - U.S. stock markets saw a collective rise, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.15%, the S&P 500 by 0.26%, and the Nasdaq by 0.48% [8] - The technology sector showed mixed results, with Nvidia rising by 2.07% and Apple falling by 0.4% [10] - The copper and metals sector experienced significant gains, with Hudbay Minerals rising by 7.42% [13] Group 4: International Commodity Prices - International gold prices surged, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.42% to $3862.9 per ounce, while oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil futures dropping by 3.45% to $63.45 per barrel [16]

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets are experiencing bullish momentum, driven primarily by expectations of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve following its first rate cut of the year in September [1][2]. Market Performance - As of September 29, 2023, spot gold rose by 1.90% to $3,821.40 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.80% to $3,859.00 per ounce. Spot silver saw a rise of 1.75% to $46.8855 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increased by 0.84% to $47.050 per ounce [1]. - The increase in gold and silver prices is attributed to a decline in the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver due to lower federal funds rates [1]. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are rising as the 2026 chairmanship transition approaches. Candidates for the new chair have expressed support for further monetary easing, influenced by political perspectives [2]. - The expectation of significant monetary easing under the new chair is seen as a factor contributing to the rise in precious metal prices, reflecting market sentiment towards the dollar's credibility and Fed policies [2]. Economic Data Insights - Recent U.S. economic data has generally exceeded expectations, with Q2 GDP revised up to 3.8% and personal spending growth at 2.5% [2]. - Inflation indicators show the core PCE index rose to 2.9% in August, and the manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 52, indicating continued economic expansion [2]. Trading Positions and Market Sentiment - There has been an increase in net long positions in gold and silver by overseas management funds, with COMEX gold net positions rising by 1,578 contracts to 160,500 contracts, and silver net positions increasing by 1,293 contracts to 37,000 contracts [3]. - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from 87.8 on September 17 to 81.3 on September 29, indicating stronger performance in silver relative to gold [3]. Upcoming Economic Events - The U.S. government faces a potential shutdown, which could impact the release of non-farm payroll data. If the shutdown is avoided, employment data could significantly influence Fed policy expectations [3]. - Attention is also on the upcoming ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data, as strong manufacturing data could lead to further declines in the gold-silver ratio [3]. Investor Strategy - Investors are advised to align their strategies with their investment horizons and risk preferences, especially given the heightened sensitivity to Fed policy statements during the holiday period [4]. - Long-term investors should focus on gold as a hedge against inflation and systemic risks, while short-term traders should prioritize risk management due to potential market volatility during the holiday [4].

美国政府运转资金将于当地时间周二午夜耗尽，截至第一财经记者发稿时，国会两党目前尚无迹象表明 会就临时支出方案达成一致，以避免政府停摆。华尔街担忧美国政府停摆成为现实，正着手应对经济数 据发布中断的局面。 里托尔兹财富管理公司（Ritholtz Wealth Management）首席市场策略师考克斯（Callie Cox）表示："总 体而言，数据透明度下降会影响市场中的每一个参与者——从华尔街大佬到政策制定者，再到普通投资 者。" 纽约梅隆银行市场部全球主管沃斯（Adam Vos）在发给第一财经记者的报告中表示，若缺乏官方数 据，投资者将更多关注美联储官员的公开言论，"美联储内部存在多种不同观点，因此，我认为要准确 判断政策最终走向可能会比较复杂。" 重磅非农或缺席 劳工统计局（BLS）是美国政府停摆期间业务将暂停的关键政府机构之一。美国劳工部周一表示，若发 生政府部分停摆，其下属统计机构将暂停发布经济数据，其中包括备受关注的9月月度就业报告，非农 就业数据为报告中的一个重要项目。这份就业报告对美联储官员、企业及家庭的决策至关重要，原定于 本周五发布。 美国劳工部证实，若政府停摆，该机构将 "暂停数据收集、处 ...