从 "看不懂" 到 "抢着买" 的认知差投资 当老铺黄金的古法金饰成为社交平台新宠、泡泡玛特的盲盒引发抢购热潮、年轻人的"晒单""收藏""心 头好"话题刷屏社交平台……在传统消费板块持续承压的背景下，新消费浪潮正以超出传统认知的方式 席卷市场。 在资本市场，新消费赛道概念异军突起，泡泡玛特（09992.SZ）、老铺黄金（06181.SZ）等多只个股的 年内股价涨幅亮眼甚至实现翻倍，而部分绩优基金产品也早将视野聚焦在这一领域，新消费龙头的基金 重仓数量、持股数值均出现显著增长。 在机构投资者眼中，新消费的"新"不仅是概念迭代，本质是科技与消费的深度融合，当前行业整体仍待 拐点的大背景下，这些新消费品牌依托短期较难被复制的底层能力，其业绩稀缺性特征未来一段时间将 持续存在。 新消费个股备受关注 今年以来，潮玩IP、谷子经济、现制茶饮等新消费领域持续火爆，相关上市公司股价表现靓丽，也引来 了越来越多的投资者的关注。数据显示，截至5月12日，泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、古茗、锦波生物等新消 费赛道的个股，今年股价均实现翻倍。 其中，老铺黄金在去年6月上市后股价随之大涨，今年上升趋势仍在继续。截至5月12日收盘，老铺黄金 的股 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the market size of China's online literature IP adaptation is expected to reach 298.56 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.61% [1][3] - The reading market size for online literature in China is projected to reach 43.06 billion yuan by the end of 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [3] - The number of online literature authors has surpassed 30 million for the first time, reaching 31.198 million, while the total number of online literary works has reached 41.651 million [3] Group 2 - The report highlights that the adaptation of online literature IP has led to significant viewership, with titles like "Qing Yu Nian Season 2" and "Yu Feng Xing" ranking among the top three in annual viewership [5] - The "Guzi economy" is identified as a key driver for the rapid development of online literature and its downstream industries, including animation and gaming [5] - AI translation technology is facilitating the overseas expansion of online literature, with over 3,200 new AI-translated works added in 2024, accounting for nearly half of the total Chinese translated works [5] Group 3 - The overseas market for online literature is projected to exceed 5 billion yuan in 2024, with 460,000 overseas online writers and over 350 million overseas users [7] - Japan has shown a remarkable growth rate of 180%, becoming the fastest-growing emerging market for online literature users [7] - The report notes that the translation of Chinese online literature into Spanish has increased by 227%, with significant breakthroughs in German, French, and Portuguese translations as well [5][7]

Core Insights - Bandai Namco is recognized as a leader in the Japanese entertainment industry, known for its strong IP management capabilities and innovative "IP Axis Strategy" that spans games, toys, anime, movies, and theme parks [1][3] - The company achieved total revenue of 1.05 trillion yen (approximately 54.5 billion RMB) in the fiscal year 2024, setting a benchmark in the global cultural industry [1] - The competition among Chinese companies like Yuewen, Aliyu, Pop Mart, and Bilibili to establish a similar IP empire is intensifying, with each company occupying different segments of the IP value chain [3][4] Company Summaries Yuewen Group - Yuewen's core advantage lies in its vast original content reservoir, with millions of signed authors and a large number of novels, positioning it as a potential IP goldmine [7] - The company faces challenges in efficiently converting text-based IP into visual IP, although successful adaptations like "Qing Yu Nian" and "Douluo Dalu" demonstrate its potential [9][10] - To become a Chinese equivalent of Bandai, Yuewen needs to enhance cross-media development and global market expansion [13] Aliyu - Aliyu operates as a platform that connects IP copyright holders with commercial channels, focusing on optimizing the IP commercialization chain [14][16] - Its "IP2B2C" model provides a one-stop service for IP from design to sales, but it lacks direct influence over IP creation [16][18] - Aliyu's role is crucial but insufficient for building a complete "Bandai-style" ecosystem [18] Pop Mart - Pop Mart has rapidly expanded in the past two years, becoming a leader in the Chinese trendy toy market with a significant international presence [19] - In 2024, overseas revenue accounted for 38.9% of total revenue, showcasing its success in global markets [19] - The company has established a complete closed loop from IP design to global DTC retail, achieving impressive profitability [21][22] Bilibili - Bilibili is distinguished by its highly active community and focus on ACG (Anime, Comic, and Game) content, with significant investments in domestic animation [25][27] - The company has diversified its revenue structure but still lacks scale in IP derivative commercialization compared to Bandai [28][30] - To evolve into a comprehensive IP group like Bandai, Bilibili must enhance its IP commercialization capabilities, particularly in self-developed games and derivative products [30] Comparative Analysis - All four Chinese companies exhibit gaps compared to Bandai, particularly in the breadth and depth of their business operations [31] - Bandai's IPs have a long lifecycle and sustained market presence, while most Chinese IPs are relatively young and unproven [33] - The global market penetration of Chinese IPs remains limited, especially in mainstream Western markets [34] - Bandai boasts a rich matrix of active IPs across various media, while Chinese platforms are still building their IP reserves [37] Future Outlook - Among the four companies, Pop Mart shows the most potential to emulate Bandai's model due to its strong IP creation capabilities and efficient commercialization system [39] - Pop Mart's global retail network and financial stability provide a solid foundation for future growth [39] - To truly become a Chinese Bandai, Pop Mart must enhance the narrative depth of its IPs, diversify its business, and balance short-term profits with long-term value cultivation [40][41][42] - The evolving landscape of the content industry suggests that the future of Chinese IP enterprises may not strictly follow Bandai's model but could develop into new business forms that adapt to local market characteristics [44][48]

Core Viewpoint - The company, 卡游, is preparing for an IPO despite reporting a net loss of 1.242 billion yuan in 2024, driven by rapid revenue growth and a strong market position in the collectible card industry [1][2]. Company Overview - 卡游's core business is collectible card games, with total revenue of approximately 10.057 billion yuan in 2024, where card business contributed 8.2 billion yuan, accounting for over 80% of total revenue [5]. - The company holds leading positions in various segments, including a 13.3% market share in the general entertainment products industry, 21.5% in the general entertainment toys sector, and a dominant 71.1% in the collectible card market [5]. Reasons for IPO - The company aims to expand its capital strength to support rapid growth, with a revenue increase of 277.8% year-on-year in 2024, necessitating significant funding despite the current losses [6]. - The IPO is intended to seize market opportunities and enhance competitiveness against international rivals, as China has become the largest card market globally, valued at 26.3 billion yuan [6]. - The company seeks to solidify its leading position in the industry and unlock valuation potential, given the low per capita spending on cards in China compared to Japan and the U.S. [6]. Competitive Advantages - 卡游 boasts a rich IP matrix with 70 IPs, including one proprietary IP, which enhances its product offerings and market appeal [8]. - The company has a robust sales network, covering all 31 provinces in China through 217 distributors, 32 flagship stores, and various online platforms [8]. - 卡游 capitalizes on the "Guzi Economy" trend, aligning collectible cards with national cultural IPs to meet the consumption preferences of Generation Z [8]. Industry Outlook - The collectible card industry in China has experienced a compound annual growth rate of 57% from 2019 to 2024, with a market size of 26.3 billion yuan in 2024, surpassing the U.S. and Japan [9]. - There is significant growth potential in the market, as per capita spending on collectible cards in China is only 18.7 yuan, compared to 119.3 yuan in Japan and 64.0 yuan in the U.S., indicating a possible 3-6 times increase in market size [9]. Impact of Losses on IPO - Market sentiment remains optimistic regarding the company's IPO despite the reported losses, as the losses are attributed to high initial investments during the expansion phase rather than poor business performance [10][11]. - The company maintains a high gross margin of around 70%, indicating strong core business profitability [11]. - The backing of prestigious underwriters such as Morgan Stanley, CICC, and JPMorgan reflects confidence in the company's future prospects [11].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady growth in Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit showing positive year-on-year changes, driven by improvements in offline channels and strong performance in specific product categories [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 860 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 7 million yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year - Non-recurring net profit was 3 million yuan, reflecting a 16.4% increase year-on-year [1] Business Segments - Offline store revenue was 620 million yuan, growing 5.6% year-on-year - E-commerce revenue reached 180 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13.5% - Supplier services revenue was 40 million yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year - The number of offline stores increased by 11 to 472, with same-store sales growing by 3.3% [1] Product Performance - Milk powder revenue was 530 million yuan, up 10.9% year-on-year - Food revenue reached 80 million yuan, increasing by 7.6% - Supplies revenue was 130 million yuan, down 1.6% - Cotton spinning and toy revenues decreased by 7.7% and increased by 16.0%, respectively [1] Profitability and Cost Management - Gross margin declined by 1.1 percentage points to 23.8%, primarily due to the lower-margin online channel and increased milk powder sales - Sales, management, and financial expense ratios were 19.1%, 3.1%, and 0.7%, respectively, showing improvements year-on-year - Net profit margin remained stable at 0.8% [2] Strategic Partnerships - The company partnered with Bandai Namco to create new growth opportunities, opening the first Gundam Base in Suzhou in 2024 - Plans to open 9-10 Gundam Base stores in high-tier cities over the next three years, with three new stores expected this year - The first Bandai model shop opened in March 2025, with strong potential for nationwide expansion [2] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to return to an expansion phase in 2025, with a projected net increase of about 50 stores - Profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 140 million yuan and 180 million yuan, respectively, maintaining a strong buy recommendation [3]

Core Insights - The opening of the first global flagship stores for Production I.G & WIT STUDIO and Sega in Shanghai marks a significant milestone in the expansion of Japanese anime and gaming companies into the Chinese market [1][4][9] - The stores aim to cater to the growing demand for anime and gaming merchandise, leveraging popular IPs to attract a dedicated fanbase [3][9] Company Overview - Production I.G & WIT STUDIO are renowned for iconic works such as "Ghost in the Shell" and "Attack on Titan," establishing a strong presence in the anime industry over the past 40 years [3][4][5] - Sega, originally known for arcade games, has created popular franchises like "Sonic the Hedgehog" and "Persona," contributing significantly to the gaming landscape [3][4] Market Potential - The "Guzi Economy" (derivative products from anime and gaming IPs) in China is projected to reach a market size of 1,689 billion yuan in 2024, with expectations to exceed 3,000 billion yuan by 2029 [3][4] - The collaboration between Japanese companies and local partners like GuGuGuGu is seen as a strategic move to tap into the lucrative Chinese market [9][13] Consumer Engagement - The flagship stores feature exclusive, original, and limited-edition merchandise, along with interactive experience zones to enhance fan engagement [3][4] - During the trial operation period, the stores achieved sales exceeding several million yuan, indicating strong consumer interest [3][4] Strategic Importance - Shanghai is viewed as a vibrant hub for anime fans, making it a strategic location for the flagship stores to foster ongoing communication with Chinese consumers [8][9] - The partnership with GuGuGuGu allows for better market penetration and understanding of local consumer preferences, which is crucial for success in the competitive landscape [9][13] Future Outlook - The collaboration aims to create unique products based on original materials, avoiding the pitfalls of market saturation and sameness [13][14] - The overall trend in the anime and gaming market is expected to remain positive, driven by a growing consumer base that seeks imaginative and engaging content [16]

Group 1: Movie Market Insights - The movie market during the "May Day" holiday is thriving, with a total box office exceeding 5 billion yuan by May 3, 2025 [2] - Diverse film genres are performing well, with notable success from reality-themed films like "Dumpling Queen" and adaptations such as "Unique" [2] - The government is investing at least 1 billion yuan in viewing subsidies and promoting initiatives like "Weekend Movie Watching" to stimulate audience engagement [2] Group 2: Performance of Live Events - The "May Day" holiday saw a surge in live performances, with over 100 large-scale events expected to attract more than 2 million attendees, generating over 2 billion yuan in hotel and tourism revenue [3] - Young audiences are increasingly interested in attending concerts, with a 107% year-on-year increase in searches for music festival-related products among users born after 1995 [3] - Platforms are offering comprehensive travel services linked to concerts, enhancing the overall tourism experience during the holiday [3] Group 3: Rise of Domestic IP - The "May Day" holiday highlighted the popularity of domestic IPs, with locations like Xi'an's "Chang'an Twelve Hours" attracting significant tourist traffic through immersive experiences [4] - The integration of culture and tourism is creating a sustainable consumption ecosystem, driven by emotional connections and upgraded experiences [4] - The growth of high-quality domestic cultural IPs, such as "Nezha" and "Genshin Impact," is reshaping cultural consumption and driving innovation in urban commercial development [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trend of high-value auctions of confiscated goods by customs, particularly focusing on the auction of Disney merchandise, which has attracted significant attention and participation from young consumers and collectors [3][5][10]. Group 1: Auction Dynamics - A recent auction featured 735 Disney items, including 653 plush toys, with a starting bid of 32,480 yuan, which eventually saw a toy sell for 280,480 yuan, highlighting the extreme price volatility in the collectibles market [8][10][11]. - The auction attracted over 60,000 viewers and 139 bidders, indicating a growing interest in such events among the younger demographic [17][19]. - The auction's hype was fueled by social media, where claims about the rarity of certain items, such as "271 green bears," drove up bidding prices significantly [13][18]. Group 2: Market Trends - The article notes a shift in consumer behavior, with young people increasingly participating in customs auctions to find rare collectibles, reflecting a broader trend in the "cultural value" of such items [6][26]. - The rise of the "customs auction" phenomenon is linked to the growing popularity of "cultural goods," which are often difficult for outsiders to appraise accurately, leading to speculative buying [20][21]. - The customs auctions have become a new channel for middle-class consumers to acquire luxury items at lower prices, with some items being sold for just a few hundred yuan [32][35]. Group 3: Implications for Customs and Trade - The article highlights the evolving role of customs in regulating and auctioning off confiscated goods, which now includes a variety of high-demand cultural products, from toys to luxury fashion items [24][41]. - Customs officials have noted an increase in the seizure of high-value items, indicating a growing trend in smuggling and the need for stricter regulations in the trade of cultural goods [21][26]. - The auction process is described as lacking in quality assurance, with no guarantees on the authenticity of items sold, which poses risks for buyers [42][43].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of "谷子" (anime-related merchandise) consumption among young people is accompanied by various risks, including impulsive spending, rampant counterfeiting, and price speculation [1][2][3] Group 1: Consumption Trends - Young consumers are increasingly engaging in the purchase of badges, blind boxes, and standees as a way to express their love for anime culture, leading to significant financial investments [1] - The phenomenon of "端盒" (bulk buying of blind boxes) has emerged, with enthusiasts spending large sums to collect rare items [1] Group 2: Consumer Protection Issues - The Ningbo Consumer Rights Protection Committee has issued warnings about the hidden dangers of the "谷子 economy," highlighting four major consumption traps [1] - There are reports of "dark box operations" where merchants manipulate the odds of obtaining rare items in blind boxes, leading to consumer exploitation [1] - A case study revealed a student spent 6,000 yuan on blind boxes but received over 30 duplicate common items, indicating a lack of transparency in odds disclosure [1] Group 3: Counterfeit Products - The prevalence of low-priced counterfeit "福袋" (mystery bags) has led consumers to fall victim to poor-quality and potentially harmful products [2] - A consumer reported receiving defective and counterfeit items after purchasing a "热门IP福袋" for 50 yuan, with the seller refusing refunds under the guise of "random shipping" [2] Group 4: Market Manipulation - Some merchants collaborate with scalpers to create a sense of urgency around "limited edition" items, encouraging young consumers to overpay for products [2] - A university student lost over 90% of their investment after purchasing a limited edition standee for 3,000 yuan, which plummeted in value after the initial hype faded [2] Group 5: Social Pressure and Consumer Behavior - The "谷圈" (anime community) fosters a culture of comparison, leading to "invisible PUA" (manipulation) where individuals feel pressured to purchase rare items to fit in [2] - A high school student borrowed 5,000 yuan to buy an expensive second-hand badge to gain acceptance in a community, resulting in financial distress [2] Group 6: Recommendations for Rational Consumption - The Ningbo Consumer Rights Protection Committee emphasizes the importance of rational consumption, advising consumers to demand transparency in odds for blind boxes and to be wary of low-priced offers [3] - Recommendations include purchasing from official channels, setting monthly budgets, and avoiding communities that promote anxiety through comparison [3] - The committee also suggests that parents engage with their children about spending habits and that society should work together to combat counterfeiting and promote financial literacy [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the media industry [6][10][22] Core Viewpoints - The media sector is expected to benefit from AI applications, with policies supporting the development of AI technologies [5][20] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a recovery trend in the media sector, with a significant year-on-year increase in net profit [16][18] - The film market is projected to face challenges, with lower ticket sales compared to previous years, emphasizing the need for quality content to drive audience engagement [17][31] Summary by Sections Industry Overview and Dynamics - The media industry has experienced a mixed performance, with the AI wearable device index showing significant gains while the Disney index has declined [15] - The overall net profit for the A-share media and internet sector decreased by 57% in 2024, but a 46% increase was observed in the first quarter of 2025 [16] Key Recommendations - Specific stocks recommended include: - Windy Zhi (603466) - Strong performance in Q1 2025 - Mango Super Media (300413) - Upcoming show "Singer 2025" scheduled for May 16 - BlueFocus Communication Group (300058) - Benefiting from Microsoft's digital marketing initiatives [6][10] Film Market Insights - The film market's performance during the May Day holiday showed a significant decline in both box office revenue and ticket sales compared to the previous year [17][31] - The report highlights the importance of quality content in driving audience demand, with upcoming summer releases being crucial for recovery [17] Game Industry Progress - The Chinese gaming market generated revenues of 857.04 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 17.99% [21] - New game releases are expected to contribute positively to market growth [21] AI Applications in Media - The integration of AI technologies is seen as a transformative factor for various sectors, including digital marketing and content creation [20] - Companies like Tencent and Alibaba are heavily investing in AI, which is expected to enhance their operational capabilities [20]