投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】 股指继续上行，市场成交缩量 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-9-15 郑雨婷 从业资格证号：F3074875 投资咨询证号：Z0017779 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 股指观点概述 | 影响因 素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8月社融增速首次回落。8月新增社会融资2.57万亿元，同比少增4630亿元，低于近五年同期均值。社融存量增速在连续10个月回升后首次回落 | | 经济和企 | 中性 | 至8.8%。政府债券净融资同比少增2519亿元，为2023年11月以来首次下降，也成为社融的主要拖累。企业短期贷款同比多增2600亿元，创2013 | | 业盈利 | | 年以来同期新高，或反映银行以短贷"冲量"信贷。居民短贷仅增105亿元，再创历史新低，显示消费意愿低迷。M1同比增速微升至6%，增幅 | | | | 放缓，或仍受基数影响。 | | | | 财 ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In August 2025, the total social financing (社融) stock increased by 8.8% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Loan stock grew by 6.8% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - M1 increased by 6% year-on-year, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[2] - M2 maintained a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, unchanged from the previous month[2] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Loan Structure - Government bond financing under social financing increased by 21.1% year-on-year, contributing 4 percentage points to the growth of social financing[2] - The growth rate of fiscal deposits was 7.1% year-on-year, down 1 percentage point from the previous month[2] - Total loans increased by 6.8% year-on-year, with corporate loans showing a significant increase of 540 billion yuan, up 240 billion yuan from the previous year[2] - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.20 trillion yuan, growing by 11.8% year-on-year[2] Group 3: Capital Market Activity - Non-financial corporate stock financing in August continued to exceed the same period last year, indicating improved access to equity markets[2] - New household deposits slowed to 110 billion yuan, a decrease of 600 billion yuan year-on-year, marking the lowest growth rate since November 2018[2] - Non-financial corporate deposits increased to 1.18 trillion yuan, up 550 billion yuan year-on-year, suggesting a potential shift of household savings into the capital market[2] Group 4: Risks and Recommendations - Risks include potential underperformance of growth policies, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns[11] - Investment ratings suggest a strong recommendation for stocks expected to outperform the market by over 20% in the next six months[12]

20250913棉系周报： 新棉上市在即 需求不振下棉价承压运行 农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 时间：2025年9月13日 周度综述：摘要 | 因素 | 性质 | 观点概览 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1、美国劳工统计局公布最新数据。 美国8月CPI同比2.9%，持平预期； CPI环比0.4%，略高于预期的0.3%；核心CP同比 | | | | 3.1%，环比0.3%，均持平预期和前值。美国上周初请失业金人数增加2.7万人至26.3万人，创2021年10月以来的最高。数据 | | 宏观 | 中性 | 公布后,市场充分消化了美联储年底前降息三次的情景。 | | | | 2、财政部部长蓝佛安在全国人大常委会作报告指出,下一步用好用足更加积极的财政政策、全力支持稳就业稳外贸,加 | | | | 快培育壮大发展新动能,进一步保障和改善民生,持续用力防范化解重点领域风险,不断提升财政治理效能和水平。 | | 供应 | 中性偏空 | 1、巴西方面，据CONAB9月数据显示，本 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's fiscal policy will continue to balance risk prevention and development promotion, with ample room for future fiscal policy actions [1] - China's long-term economic stability remains unchanged, providing a solid foundation for fiscal operations [1] - The experience accumulated in macroeconomic regulation has enhanced the ability for counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [1] Group 2 - The fiscal department will maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in policy planning [1] - The domestic margin balance has reached a new high of 2.3 trillion yuan, indicating a sustained market profit effect that may attract more funds [1] - The Guotai CSI A500 ETF (159338) is highlighted as a representative broad-based product for investors to capture long-term investment opportunities in China's economy [1]

Group 1 - The core theme of the forum is "expanding domestic demand to respond to challenges" [3] - Professor Zhao Jingmei emphasizes the importance of expectation management in monetary policy to boost confidence among businesses and consumers [3][4] - Zhao highlights that pessimistic expectations can lead to self-fulfilling prophecies, negatively impacting investment and consumption, which are crucial for economic growth [3][4] Group 2 - Zhao provides an example from 1987 when the Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan's statement helped stabilize the stock market after a crash, illustrating the significance of expectation management [4] - In the short term, monetary policy should focus on building confidence and expectations; in the medium term, it should work alongside fiscal policy to restore confidence among local governments, businesses, and citizens; and in the long term, it should adhere to reform and opening-up [4]

Core Insights - The fiscal revenue in China is projected to reach 106 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, an increase of 17 trillion yuan or approximately 19% compared to the previous plan [2] - Public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, marking a 24% increase over the previous five years, with a focus on optimizing the structure of spending towards development and public welfare [2][4] Fiscal Policy and Economic Impact - The correlation between fiscal policy and domestic demand has significantly increased in recent years, particularly in the post-real estate era, highlighting the importance of government spending in stabilizing the economy [3] - The fiscal deficit ratio has risen from 2.7% to 4% during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with new local government special bond quotas set at 19.4 trillion yuan and tax reductions exceeding 1 trillion yuan [3] Social Welfare and Public Spending - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, the general public budget allocated 20.5 trillion yuan for education, 19.6 trillion yuan for social security and employment, and 10.6 trillion yuan for health care, totaling nearly 100 trillion yuan for social welfare [6] - Employment support measures have been enhanced, with 3.186 billion yuan allocated for employment subsidies, resulting in over 50 million new urban jobs [6] Fiscal Reform and Structural Changes - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the need for deepening fiscal and tax reforms to ensure a more scientific budget management and a more robust fiscal system [7] - The central government's transfer payments to local governments have totaled nearly 50 trillion yuan since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, aimed at enhancing local fiscal capabilities [8] Future Outlook - The Ministry of Finance aims to strengthen macroeconomic regulation and deepen fiscal reforms in the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, contributing to the modernization of the country [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - level shows that the Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, and Shenzhen has adjusted real - estate policies in three aspects: relaxing purchase restrictions, loosening corporate home - buying, and optimizing credit [1][4][10] - In terms of fundamentals, last week's industrial data was average. Steel production decreased, hot - rolled coil apparent demand rebounded, but rebar apparent demand declined. The peak - season demand expectation was hard to fulfill, and rebar inventory continued to accumulate. With good steel - mill resumption, strong raw - material support, limited peak - season demand recovery, and weak spot prices, steel futures prices are expected to fluctuate [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3127 | - 16 | - 0.51 | 9051013 | 3329767 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3364 | 24 | 0.72 | 2667967 | 1323310 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 799.5 | 10.0 | 1.27 | 1727027 | 538976 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1144.5 | - 14.0 | - 1.21 | 6923190 | 910688 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1625.5 | - 21.0 | - 1.28 | 130356 | 52840 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated slightly down. From Monday to Thursday, prices dropped due to poor demand recovery, and on Friday, policy expectations increased, warming market sentiment and pushing up steel prices. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 3010 (+20) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (-20) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3400 (+20) Yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Industry News - In August, China's steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a decrease of 326,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decline of 3.3%. From January to August, cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [6][7] - The preliminary value of the change in the US non - farm employment benchmark in 2025 was - 911,000, expected to be - 700,000, and the previous value was - 598,000 [10] - China's PPI in August decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat. China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, with a flat month - on - month change [10] - In August, automobile production and sales in China were 2.815 million and 2.857 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and 10.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4% [10] - On September 5th, Shenzhen adjusted real - estate policies in three aspects: relaxing purchase restrictions, loosening corporate home - buying, and optimizing credit [1][4][10] - On September 14th, China and the US held talks on economic and trade issues in Madrid, Spain [10] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report includes 20 charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, spot price differences, steel - mill profits, blast - furnace operating rates, production, inventory, and apparent consumption [9][11][18] etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's financial aggregates are large, and future monetary policy should focus on optimizing the structure while maintaining reasonable aggregate growth [2][18]. - China's fiscal policy still has sufficient room for maneuver, with a special treasury bond issuance expected to leverage significant credit [3][19]. - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, but the policy path after September remains uncertain [4][5]. - Industrial product prices are unlikely to rebound sustainably, and PPI may decline again after the fourth quarter [33]. - The domestic bond market is expected to be highly volatile in August - September, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to be moderately strong [34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3% [1]. - Social financing and credit in August 2025 showed significant changes, with an increase in M1 growth and a narrowing M1 - M2 gap [1][2][18]. - CPI in August 2025 was - 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.9% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's financial aggregates are large, and future monetary policy will focus on structural optimization [2][18]. - China - US economic and trade talks will discuss issues such as tariffs and TikTok [2]. - China's fiscal policy has sufficient room, with a special treasury bond issuance to leverage credit [3][19]. - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, but the post - September policy path is uncertain [4][5]. 3.2.2 Metals - Gold and silver prices reached new highs, and Thai gold exports to Cambodia increased [6]. - Metal inventories in the LME showed significant changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - A second round of coke price cuts is planned, and coal prices have fallen [9]. - Indonesia's seizure of a nickel mine has raised supply concerns [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China's new LNG device was delivered, and international oil prices rebounded due to supply concerns [10]. - The EU may reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas [10]. - The US natural gas net long position increased, and the WTI crude oil net long position decreased [12]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - China's summer grain purchase was progressing smoothly, and US coffee prices rose [13]. - Most agricultural product prices in China declined, and Pakistan plans to purchase sugar [13][14]. - Speculators' net short positions in US soybeans and corn increased [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - The central bank adjusted the evaluation method for primary dealers in open - market operations and carried out reverse repurchase operations [16]. - The central bank will conduct a large - scale term reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity [16]. - There are large - scale reverse repurchase and treasury cash deposits maturing this week [17]. 3.3.2 Important News - China - US economic and trade talks were held in Spain [18]. - China's financial data showed strong support for the real economy, and there was a shift in household deposits [18][19]. - China's fiscal policy has sufficient room, and debt - related issues are being addressed [19][20]. - China opposes US export control measures and launches investigations [21][22][23]. - Policies to promote private investment and industry stability are being introduced [23][24]. - The real estate industry is in the stage of risk clearance, and banks have adjusted mortgage policies [25]. - Brokerage bond issuance reached a new high, and there were bond - related events and credit rating changes [26][27]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market showed a differentiated trend, with long - term bonds recovering [28]. - The exchange bond market had mixed performances, and convertible bond indices rose [28][29]. - Interest rates in the money market and bond issuance yields showed various changes [29][30][31]. - European and US bond yields generally increased [31]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index showed a slight increase [32]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Industrial product prices are unlikely to rebound sustainably, and PPI may decline again [33]. - The domestic bond market will be volatile, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to be moderately strong [34]. - The market is in a complex situation with different signals from prices [34]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - A large number of bonds will be listed, issued, paid, and redeemed on September 15 [35]. 3.4 Stock Market News - The Beijing Stock Exchange will switch stock codes for listed companies [36]. - The pattern of the public fund market has changed, with growth in the bond - holding scale of some institutions [36][37].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of August, the broad money supply (M2) increased by 8.8% year-on-year, which is 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - The total social financing (TSF) also grew by 8.8% year-on-year, exceeding the previous year's growth by 0.7 percentage points, indicating a moderately loose monetary policy [1] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 0.1 percentage points in August, with the production index increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 50.8%, signaling accelerated manufacturing expansion [1] Group 2 - The macro policy is focusing on improving people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, with a call for optimizing fiscal expenditure structures and enhancing wealth distribution [2] - Recent policies, such as the trade-in program, have successfully stimulated personal consumption demand, contributing to further release of consumption needs [2] - Cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have introduced comprehensive real estate regulation policies to better meet residents' housing needs [2] Group 3 - New policies, including childcare subsidies and personal consumption loans, have been introduced to boost consumer confidence and stimulate effective consumption demand [3] - The government is addressing irrational competition in key industries like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, which will help promote supply-demand balance and stabilize price levels [3] - The macro policy is expected to maintain continuity and stability, with a focus on supporting the real economy and implementing comprehensive measures for economic recovery [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, with an overall oscillatory view due to the existence of long - term interest rate cut expectations but a low possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1] - The intraday view of financial futures index stock sectors (TL, T, TF, TS) is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. In the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly conduct low - level oscillatory consolidation [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are based on the situation that long - term interest rate cut expectations still exist while the possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts is low [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - Last Friday, treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. 2 - year treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly declined, while 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures oscillated and rose [5] - Treasury bond futures are mainly affected by monetary policy expectations and the risk appetite of the stock market [5] - In the long run, there are still expectations of interest rate cuts, but in the short term, the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is not strong because the necessity of comprehensive interest rate cuts is not high [5] - The inflation data in August was still weak. The policy side will continue to introduce policies to stabilize demand to promote a moderate rebound in inflation. It is expected that fiscal policies will be intensified in the fourth quarter, which will pose supply - side pressure on treasury bonds [5] - The risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level, siphoning bond - buying funds and suppressing the demand side of treasury bonds, showing the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]