美联储理事沃勒：市场正关注财政政策，并表达了担忧。 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是 否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发 布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修 改。 国债期货日报 2025/5/22 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 项目 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.555 | 0.01% T主力成交量 | 19256 | 12458↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.720 | 0.01% TF主力成交量 | 14041 | 4789↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.252 | 0% TS主力成交量 | 8944 | 4013↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 118.990 | -0.12% TL主力成交量 | ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 发债快慢之间的财政线索 ——4 月财政数据点评 事 项 4 月广义财政收入同比 2.7%，3 月同比-1.7%；4 月广义财政支出同比 12.9%， 3 月同比 10.1%。 主要观点 一、发债快慢之间的财政线索 收入端承压之下（1-4 月税收收入同比-2.1%，卖地收入同比-11.4%），今年财 政或较往年更依赖债务端；通过观察政府债发行，可以得到若干财政政策线 索： （一）开年以来发债进度较快，支撑财政靠前发力→年内财政要保持力度，或 大概率需要增量债务 观察 1：开年以来政府债发行进度较快（今年政府债净融资预计 13.9 万亿，较 去年增加 2.2 万亿（13.9 万亿包括：一般国债净融资约 4.9 万亿，特别国债净 融资约 1.8 万亿，新增一般债 8000 亿，新增专项债 4.4 万亿，特殊再融资债约 2 万亿）；截至 5 月 20 日，已知政府债净融资 6.2 万亿，进度 44.9%，去年 1- 5 月 2.6 万亿，进度 22.5%，2018~2024 年同期进度分别为 5.7%、38.8%、37.4%、 23%、40.3%、27.4%、22.5% ...

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of JPMorgan in China, Zhu Haibin, emphasizes that while exports may weaken, consumption and investment are expected to strengthen due to policy support, highlighting the need for enhanced measures to boost consumption [1] Economic Policy Insights - Fiscal policy has room for expansion to support stable growth, with the central government expected to implement measures [1] - There is a necessity for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, particularly after September 2024, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate and capital markets as part of financial stability policies [1] Economic Structure Rebalancing - Expanding domestic demand and consumption are prioritized as key tasks in economic work moving forward [1]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 22 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 偏强震荡 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆玉米： 区间【2300，2360】操作 ...

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 空头小幅减仓，煤焦窄幅震荡 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 22 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 焦煤： 现货下调，期货持续下行。蒙 5#主焦煤报 970 元/吨(-0)。活跃合约报 842 元/吨(+3.5)。 基差 148 元/吨(-3.5)，9-1 月差-14.5 元/吨（-16.5）。 矿山开工小幅回落，焦企开工持平。523 家矿山开工率报 89.26%（-0.66），110 家 洗煤厂开工率报 62.08%(-0. ...

关税战下，4月份经济财政数据好于预期，随着中美双方90天内大幅降低关税，短期财政政策加码概率 大幅下降 美国4月初对中国加征畸高关税一度引起市场担忧，但最终4月份的财政、经济数据显示，中国经济顶住 压力稳定增长。 财政部数据显示，4月份全国税收收入增速首次实现年内由负转正，同比增长约1.9%。这也带动今年前 4个月全国一般公共预算收入降幅缩窄至-0.4%。 多位专家告诉第一财经，关税战预期下"抢补货""抢出口""转出口"等对冲对美出口下滑，而"两重""两 新"政策和积极财政政策靠前发力也对冲经济下行压力。随着中美双方90天内大幅下调关税，上半年经 济预计保持稳定增长，短期内财政政策主要是加快落实好既有政策举措，比如加快发行政府债券等，并 适时储备增量政策根据后续形势择机而出，推动经济运行在合理区间。 反差背后 为何4月关税战升级下，税收收入增速逆势增长？ 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒对第一财经分析，4月财政经济数据总体上呈现出稳定和韧性的特征，关 税战的冲击有宏观时滞，工业生产和出口增速好于市场预期，税收好于预期，主要是源于"转出口"部分 对冲了对美出口的下滑，4月中国对美出口下降21%，但对东盟出口增长20. ...

Core Insights - The overall public budget revenue for the first four months of the year was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Public budget expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, marking the fastest expenditure progress for the same period since 2020 [1] - In April, public budget revenue grew by 1.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue growth accelerating by 4.1 percentage points to 1.9% [1][2] - Non-tax revenue for the first four months was 15,060 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, but the growth rate slowed to 1.7% in April [3] Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue for April turned positive with a growth rate of 1.9%, while the total tax revenue for January to April was 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first quarter [2] - Major tax categories showed a decline in growth rates, with VAT, consumption tax, and corporate income tax experiencing significant drops [2] - Personal income tax saw a substantial rebound due to a low base from the previous year, rising from -58.5% to 9.0% [2] Expenditure Analysis - Public budget expenditure in April grew by 5.8% year-on-year, with significant increases in social security and employment spending (8.5%) and education spending (7.4%) [4] - Infrastructure spending showed a growth of 2.2%, with notable increases in urban community and transportation expenditures [4] - Overall, the acceleration in fiscal spending in April indicates a proactive approach to stabilize growth amid external challenges [4] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while key areas of expenditure are being supported, the ongoing decline in cumulative fiscal revenue indicates underlying economic issues, particularly insufficient effective demand [5] - The focus of fiscal policy in the second quarter is expected to be on accelerating the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing large-scale new measures [5]

日期 2025 年 5 月 22 日 行业 贵金属日评 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美联储官员发表美国经济悲观预期言论打压美元指数再次跌破 100 关口，媒 体报告以色列准备袭击伊朗核设施而地缘政治担忧重新升温，计价货币因素与避 险需求推动伦敦黄金回到 3300 美元/盎司上方，初步验证伦敦黄金在 3133-3200 美元/盎司的支撑力度；因中美贸易形势边际缓和引发的乐观情绪减退，近期白银 走势落后黄金而伦敦金银比值重返 100 上方。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局 进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金 ...

Group 1 - The recent financial policy package includes 10 monetary policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations through a combination of tools, reflecting a moderately loose monetary policy stance to support employment, businesses, and market stability [1][2] - The measures include targeted reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts for large and medium-sized banks, as well as for auto finance and leasing companies, alongside interest rate reductions for policy rates and housing provident fund loans [2][3] - Structural monetary policy tools have been innovatively enhanced, with a comprehensive reduction in interest rates for various structural monetary policy tools, which will incentivize banks to increase credit to key strategic areas and weak links [3] Group 2 - New policy tools such as loans for service consumption and elderly care have been established to encourage financial institutions to support sectors like accommodation, dining, entertainment, and the elderly care industry, thereby stimulating service consumption and enhancing the pension market [3] - The structural monetary policy tools, with a balance of 5.9 trillion yuan, have become a significant channel for basic currency supply, reinforcing the policy incentives for commercial banks [3]