宏观：本周（7月21日-7月25日，下同）宏观面偏向利空。海外方面，美联储公布了最新的利率决议， 一如市场预期，该央行仍将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%区间不变，美元指数仍保持强势，压制金属价 格。美国劳工部1日公布最新非农业部门就业数据，7月美国失业率环比升高0.1个百分点至4.2%，当月 非农业部门新增就业岗位为7.3万，低于市场预期的11万。同时，美国5月和6月份非农业部门新增就业 岗位数量从此前公布的14.4万和14.7万分别被大幅下调至1.9万和1.4万，显示美国就业市场明显降温。此 外，近期中美经贸团队就重大议题进行深入交流，同意推动美方已暂停的对等关税24%部分以及中方反 制措施如期展期，并将继续沟通以稳定双边经贸关系。国内方面，中共中央政治局会议部署下半年经济 工作，强调宏观政策持续发力，实施积极财政政策和适度宽松货币政策，并推动资本市场回稳向好。央 行召开2025年下半年工作会议，会议要求坚持稳中求进工作总基调，落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，加 力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等，进一步深化金融改革和高水平对外开放，防范化 解重点领域金融风险。 电解铝： 供应：国内电解铝运行 ...

【宏观国债月报20250803】年中经济再度放缓，政策发力价格回 t 日期: 2025-08-03 【宏观国债月报20250803】年中经济再度放缓，政策发力价格回升 【经济情况:6月数据回落】 6月消费投资等经济数据出现不同程度回落,经济整体增速边际放缓但结构持续优化,下半年在政策带动下或继续稳中有进。 【宏观政策:政治局会议定调积级,反内卷政策持续发力】 会议延续"稳中求进"总基调，强调"保持政策连续性稳定性。增强灵活性预见性"。反内卷政策中服除"低价元序竞争"中的"低价"表达，转向依法治理无序 【结论】 7月外部环境风高浪急，国内反内卷政策发力，价格指数出现回升,经济整体预期稳中向好,但海外冲击仍将持续。 【关注数据】 9月美联储议息会议,以及国内经济数据 国债期货观点策略 | 2025-08-03 核心观点 | 2025-08-03 核心观点 | | --- | --- | | * 合约: T2509 ▼ 观点： 国债10年期 区间意荡, 区间为[106,109] | * 观点： 国债2年期 区间震荡，区间为[102,103] * 合约: TS2509 | | ® 逻辑： 1、流动性环境略有改善，持续 ...

Macro Policy - The macro policy emphasizes the release of existing policy effects, advocating for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy[1] - The meeting did not reiterate the previous mention of "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" from April[1] - The Ministry of Finance has reported six cases of hidden debt accountability, stressing the importance of preventing and resolving hidden debt risks as a political task[1] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy is tightening regarding debt management, with a focus on actively and prudently resolving local government debt risks and prohibiting new hidden debts[2] - The Ministry of Finance has emphasized strict accountability for those responsible for hidden debts, reinforcing the crackdown on illegal activities related to new hidden debts[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy has not mentioned "timely interest rate cuts" but emphasizes maintaining ample liquidity and promoting a decline in overall financing costs[3] Consumption and Investment - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting service consumption and implementing special actions to stimulate consumption, particularly in cultural, tourism, and healthcare sectors[4] - Investment strategies include high-quality promotion of "two重" construction and the establishment of new policy financial tools to enhance investment returns[4] Market Competition - The meeting called for deepening the construction of a unified national market and optimizing market competition order, with a focus on regulating chaotic competition among enterprises[5] - Specific measures include conducting cost investigations in industries with significant "involution" competition issues[5]

Revenue Performance - In June 2025, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a decline from May's 0.1%[1] - Tax revenue increased by 1.0% year-on-year, up from 0.6% in May, while non-tax revenue fell by 3.7%, a larger decline than the previous month's 2.2%[5] - For the first half of 2025, general public budget revenue cumulatively decreased by 0.3%, matching the performance from January to May[7] Expenditure Trends - In June 2025, general public budget expenditure grew by 0.4% year-on-year, down from 2.6% in May[1] - Cumulatively, general public budget expenditure increased by 3.4% in the first half of 2025, a slowdown from 4.2% in the previous period[9] - By June, general public budget expenditure completed 47.6% of the annual budget, slightly below the five-year average of 48.1%[9] Government Fund Insights - In June, government fund revenue surged by 20.8% year-on-year, a significant recovery from the previous month's decline of 8.1%[10] - Cumulatively, government fund revenue decreased by 2.4% in the first half of 2025, with land transfer revenue down by 6.5%[10] - Government fund expenditure in June increased by 79.2% year-on-year, driven by accelerated issuance of special bonds[10] Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting indicated that macro policies will continue to be proactive in the second half of 2025, emphasizing the need for increased government bond issuance and improved fund utilization[12] - Potential measures may include raising the fiscal deficit ratio and increasing the issuance of special bonds to stimulate domestic demand and counteract external economic slowdowns[12]

政府债券加快发行使用，经济运行获得更多动能。近期，中央向地方下达了今年第三批690亿元超长期 特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金，并明确将继续加强统筹协调、强化跟踪调度、完善实施机制，平稳 有序推进消费品以旧换新工作。此外，今年8000亿元"两重"建设项目清单已全部下达完毕。一系列措 施，对巩固拓展经济回升向好势头将发挥出重要作用。 财政政策的重要发力点，还在于更多地"投资于人"，扎实做好民生保障工作，兜牢基层"三保"底线。近 期，育儿补贴、免费学前教育等一系列重要政策发布，获得社会一致点赞。这些惠及千家万户的民生政 策，背后是大规模财政资金的有力支持。其中，育儿补贴政策是新中国成立以来首次大范围、普惠式、 直接性向群众发放的民生保障现金补贴。中央财政将设立共同财政事权转移支付项目"育儿补贴补助资 金"，今年初步安排预算900亿元左右。中国式现代化，民生为大。下半年更加积极财政政策的实施，必 须更多地围绕民生做文章，在更大力度惠及百姓的同时，提振消费、拉动内需。 "持续发力、适时加力"，在于我国宏观政策有较大空间，工具箱储备充足，针对各种情况留有后手。从 人民银行创设新的结构性货币政策工具，到一系列重要民生政策的 ...

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%[8] - The GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from Q1[8] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value grew by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, maintaining a similar pace to Q1[11] - Manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%, although this represented a decline of 2.0 percentage points from Q1[21] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment totaled 24.87 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous year[20] - Real estate investment fell by 11.2% year-on-year, worsening from a decline of 9.9% in Q1[20] Trade Dynamics - Total import and export volume reached 21.79 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 2.7%[30] - The trade surplus remained high due to a "rush to export" effect amid tariff uncertainties[30] Price Indexes - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8%[33] - The PPI decline was attributed to weak demand, falling costs, and overcapacity in several industries[33] Employment and Fiscal Policy - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% in the first half of 2025, showing stability compared to the previous year[40] - National public budget revenue was 11.56 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while expenditure grew by 3.4% to 14.1 trillion yuan[46] Monetary Policy - The central bank maintained a moderately loose monetary policy, with a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio[53] - New loans in the first half of 2025 totaled 12.92 trillion yuan, with a focus on manufacturing and infrastructure sectors[58]

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Zhu Haibin as the Assistant President (Economic Research) of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is a significant development, indicating a focus on macroeconomic and financial stability research in Hong Kong [3][5]. Group 1: Appointment Details - Zhu Haibin will officially take up the role on October 1, 2025, following the recommendation of the HKMA's governing committee [3]. - His appointment comes after the resignation of Zhang Liling, who left the position for personal reasons [6]. Group 2: Background of Zhu Haibin - Zhu Haibin holds a Bachelor's degree in Information Management from Peking University, a Master's degree in Economics from the People's Bank of China, and a PhD in Economics from Duke University [5]. - He has extensive experience in economic research, particularly in macroeconomic and financial stability policy research for Mainland China and Hong Kong [5]. - Prior to joining HKMA, Zhu served as Managing Director and Chief Economist for China at JPMorgan Chase, and he has also worked as a senior economist at the Bank for International Settlements [5]. Group 3: HKMA Overview - The HKMA was established on April 1, 1993, through the merger of the Exchange Fund and the Office of the Commissioner of Banking [6]. - Its main functions include maintaining monetary stability under the linked exchange rate system, promoting the stability and soundness of the banking system, and supporting Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GDP growth in Q2 2025 met market expectations, but the fixed - asset investment, social consumption, and real estate sectors faced challenges. The export and industrial added - value in June exceeded expectations. The domestic real estate market continued to decline, and the Chinese economy may face challenges in maintaining rapid growth in the second half of the year, requiring continuous efforts to expand domestic demand. The "anti - involution" policies may have a more moderate and long - term impact. Policy decisions may be made based on economic changes, and new policies may be introduced at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter [84]. Summary by Related Content GDP and Industry Contribution - In Q2 2025, China's GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, meeting market expectations. The GDP grew 5.3% year - on - year in the first half of the year. The primary, secondary, and tertiary industries grew 3.8%, 4.8%, and 5.7% year - on - year respectively in Q2. The contributions of the three industries to GDP in Q2 were 4.6%, 34.2%, and 61.2% respectively [4][6]. GDP Growth Contribution Factors - In Q2 2025, the contributions of final consumption expenditure, capital formation, and net exports of goods and services to GDP growth were 52.3%, 24.7%, and 23.0% respectively [9]. GDP Deflator - The GDP deflator in Q2 2025 decreased 1.20% year - on - year, showing a negative growth for nine consecutive quarters since Q2 2023 [12]. Fixed - Asset Investment - In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment grew 2.8% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 3.7%. General infrastructure investment (including power) grew 8.9% year - on - year, while narrow infrastructure investment (excluding power) grew 4.6% year - on - year. Manufacturing investment grew 7.5% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased 11.2% year - on - year [15]. Real Estate Market - In the first half of 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased 3.5% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased 5.5% year - on - year. In June, the second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased 0.7% month - on - month, and those in second - and third - tier cities decreased 0.6% month - on - month. In July, the decline rate of national new housing sales area accelerated [18][21][23]. Social Consumption - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 5.6%. The growth rates of most categories of consumer goods in units above the designated size decreased compared with May [26][28]. Service Industry - In June 2025, the service industry production index grew 6.0% year - on - year. The growth rates of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail industries were relatively high [30]. Foreign Trade - In June 2025, China's exports in US dollars grew 5.8% year - on - year, and imports grew 1.1% year - on - year. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US decreased. In July, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) declined slightly, and the decline of the US - West route was faster [33][36][38]. Industrial Sector - In June 2025, the added - value of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew 6.8% year - on - year, exceeding the market expectation. The product sales rate was 94.3%, and the industrial capacity utilization rate in Q2 was 74.0% [41][43][45]. Employment and Prices - In June 2025, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%. The CPI increased 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year. In July, agricultural product prices hovered at a low level, and the average domestic gasoline price was higher than that in June [47][49][57]. Manufacturing and Non - Manufacturing PMI - In July 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, remaining below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%. The manufacturing production continued to expand, while the demand re - entered the contraction range. The service industry activity expectation index increased slightly [68][71][81].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams indicates that the rising uncertainty surrounding trade, immigration, and fiscal policy changes leads to divergent viewpoints being normal [1] Group 1 - The increase in uncertainty is attributed to changes in trade policies, immigration policies, and fiscal policies [1] - Divergent opinions among economic analysts and policymakers are expected due to the aforementioned uncertainties [1]

Group 1 - The city is implementing a more proactive fiscal policy to stimulate consumption and promote high-quality development, focusing on expanding domestic demand [1] - By 2025, the city plans to expand its consumption upgrade initiatives to include mobile and 3C digital products, in addition to existing categories like automobiles and home appliances [1] - In the first half of the year, the city secured 8.81 billion yuan in special long-term bonds and provincial matching funds, with 7.25 billion yuan already disbursed in subsidies, leading to significant increases in sales across various sectors [1] Group 2 - A budget of 46.6 million yuan has been allocated for the "Car Purchase Hongcheng" and "Shopping Hongcheng" initiatives, resulting in a notable increase in foot traffic in key commercial areas [2] - An additional 13 million yuan has been set aside to support local dining events, enhancing the visibility of local restaurant brands [2] - The city is fostering the "Four First Economy" by attracting 50 new stores and developing 30 "quarter-hour convenient living circles," with a focus on integrating urban and rural commerce [2]