Wind数据显示，截至当地时间7月11日收盘，伦敦银现货价格上涨3.77%，每盎司价格站上 38美元；COMEX白银期货价格上涨4.74%，每盎司价格突破39美元。白银现货及期货价格 双双创出近14年来新高，今年以来涨幅均超过32%。 白银暴涨势头猛 珠宝交易中心负责人王鸿媛表示，投资银条6月份较5月份销售额提升了20％。现在消费者普 遍对于一公斤的投资银条热度比较高，500克的银条也是消费者比较热衷的。 白银价格上涨主要受哪些方面影响？ 白银价格上涨是避险情绪与工业需求共同作用的结果 。全球地缘政治局势持续紧张，使得市 场避险情绪空前高涨。 黄金价格率先启动，白银等贵金属尽管前期涨幅滞后，但在避险需求 的扩散下，补涨行情汹涌来袭。 工业需求增加也是白银价格上涨的主要原因 。 白银在光伏电池中扮演着举足轻重的角色，光 伏产业发展迅猛，成为白银需求增长的核心驱动力；新能源汽车产业的蓬勃发展同样为白银 需求注入强劲动力，根据世界白银协会统计数据，2024年，混动汽车与纯电汽车的单位白银 用量较传统汽车分别提升了21％和71％。 与此同时， 全球主要产银国的矿山产量增长乏力，难以满足日益增长的市场需求 。 世界白 ...

Price Trends - Import iron ore prices have increased compared to the previous week, with 62% grade iron ore priced at 95.70 USD/ton, up 1.38% from June 27, and 65% grade at 104.98 USD/ton, up 1.72% [1][2] - Domestic iron ore prices have seen a slight decrease, with 66% grade iron concentrate priced at 869 RMB/ton, unchanged from June 27 [1] Supply and Demand - Iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports totaled 24.135 million tons from June 23 to June 29, a decrease of 3.594 million tons week-on-week [2] - The total iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China was 138.784 million tons as of July 4, a decrease of 518,300 tons [3] - The average daily steel mill operating rate was 83.46%, a decrease of 0.36 percentage points week-on-week [3] Shipping and Freight Costs - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was reported at 1436 points, down 85 points week-on-week [2] - Freight costs from Australia to Qingdao were 7.39 USD/ton, an increase of 0.23 USD/ton, while freight from Brazil decreased to 18.58 USD/ton, down 0.12 USD/ton [3] Steel Production - In late June, key steel enterprises produced 21.29 million tons of steel, with an average daily production of 2.129 million tons, a decrease of 0.9% week-on-week [4] - The estimated daily production of steel nationwide was 2.75 million tons, a decrease of 0.9% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanxi coking coal market is experiencing a stable operation with slight supply decreases, while the overall price index remains unchanged compared to the previous period, but shows a significant decline year-on-year [6]. Price Index Summary - The Shanxi coking coal price index stands at 1124 points, unchanged from the previous period, but down 847 points compared to the same period last year [6]. - Specific prices for various types of coking coal include: - Top-grade metallurgical coke wet quenching at 1179 points - Top-grade metallurgical coke dry quenching at 1452 points - Standard-grade metallurgical coke wet quenching at 1029 points - Standard-grade metallurgical coke dry quenching at 1184 points - All these prices remain stable compared to the last period [6]. Market Dynamics - The coking coal market is showing positive trends, with some coking plants raising prices by 50-55 yuan per ton [6]. - Coking enterprises are currently facing losses, with an average loss of 63 yuan per ton and a capacity utilization rate dropping to 72.72%, down 0.48 percentage points from the previous week [6]. - Steel mill demand is improving, leading to smooth shipments from coking enterprises and a rapid decrease in inventory levels [6]. Pricing and Inventory - The mainstream price for standard-grade dry quenching coke in Shanxi is between 1210-1285 yuan per ton [6]. - The spot market for coking coal at ports is stable to slightly strong, with port inventories remaining stable [6]. - The current mainstream cash out-of-port price for standard-grade metallurgical coke is between 1250-1300 yuan per ton [6]. Future Outlook - The combination of smooth shipments, low inventory levels, and a bullish sentiment in the futures market is expected to support a stable to slightly strong operation in the coking coal market in the short term [6].

其次，激发有效需求，拓展市场新空间。在当前经济形势下，促进消费潜力释放已成为推动经济持续健 康发展的重要引擎。今年以来，为了提振消费市场，持续出台了一系列扩内需政策措施，涵盖了减税降 费、优化消费环境、促进消费升级等多个方面。在部分消费品行业，如汽车、家电等，扩内需政策已经 产生了显著效果。为了满足消费者日益增长的多样化需求，还应继续加强政策引导和支持，鼓励新型消 费业态发展。如数字消费、绿色消费、健康消费等新兴业态正逐渐崛起，有望成为消费市场的新亮点。 物价是供需关系的晴雨表。从供给方面来看，我国生产能力强大，同时部分传统领域也存在一定低效产 能。而某些高端领域和关键环节仍存在短板，导致供给结构尚不足以完全满足经济动能的变化。从需求 方面来看，随着居民消费观念的转变，消费者对产品和服务的需求日益多样化、个性化，对供给侧提出 了更高的要求。为了解决这一供需结构性矛盾，需要加强供需两侧政策协同。 首先，优化供给结构，增强产业适配性。提升供给质量和效率，是推动增长动能转换、实现经济高质量 发展的必由之路。这就需要继续深化供给侧结构性改革，用改革的办法推进结构调整，扩大有效供给， 提高供给结构对需求变化的适应性和灵 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the projections for soybean and oilseed production, highlighting changes in planting area, yield, and total supply for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons [1][2] - For soybeans, the harvested area is expected to decrease slightly from 86.1 million acres to 82.5 million acres, while the yield remains stable at 50.7 bushels per acre for 2024/25 [1] - The total soybean production is projected to decline from 4,366 million bushels to 4,335 million bushels in 2025/26, with a corresponding decrease in total supply from 4,734 million bushels to 4,705 million bushels [1] Group 2 - The oil production is forecasted to remain stable at 28,800 million pounds for 2024/25, with a slight increase in total supply from 30,851 million pounds to 31,871 million pounds in 2025/26 [2] - Domestic usage of oil is expected to decrease from 26,800 million pounds to 26,700 million pounds in 2024/25, while biodiesel usage is projected to drop significantly from 12,900 million pounds to 12,250 million pounds [2] - The total demand for oil is anticipated to decline slightly from 29,400 million pounds to 29,300 million pounds in 2024/25, with an increase in ending stocks from 1,451 million pounds to 1,531 million pounds in 2025/26 [2]

亚洲棕榈油价格飙升至两个月高点，产量下降需求增加，市场供需如何影响未来走势？季节性因素将如 何影响市场？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pressure on soybean and corn futures ahead of the USDA supply and demand report, questioning whether the market can find hope in export demand [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Soybean and corn futures are facing downward pressure as the USDA supply and demand report approaches [1] - The market is looking for signs of recovery through potential export demand [1] Group 2: USDA Report Implications - The upcoming USDA report is critical for understanding supply and demand dynamics in the agricultural sector [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring the report for insights that could influence future pricing and demand trends [1]

交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 2025年7月11日 能化产品周报—原油 研究员：刘琛瑞 交易咨询：Z0017093 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 http://www.eafutures .com 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不做任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考， 报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述证券或期货的买卖出价或征价，投资者据此做出 的任何投 资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：上海市虹口区东大名路1089号26层2601-2608单元 基本面信息： 观点：绝对低库存和旺季加持给予油价下方支撑。中期基本面转弱预期较为一致，不过需观察欧佩克实际增产量以及提 防美国贸易谈判风险爆发的时间点。 东亚期货 2 • 1、全球静态库存不高 • 2、成品油旺季需求 • 3、中长期的增产压力 • 4、贸易摩擦带来的长期需求抑制 基本面要点： 东亚期货 3 • 供给：美国（EIA周报）：产量1338.5万桶/日，环比变动-0.36%，同比变动0.64%；美原油净进口量325.6万桶/日，环比变动-29.43%， ...

Group 1 - Guangdong Province has issued a guideline prohibiting the registration of "small property houses" and other illegal constructions, effective from August 4, 2025, which aims to promote the purchase of legitimate properties and regulate the real estate market [1] - Shandong Binzhou is collecting existing commercial housing to convert into affordable housing, which is expected to optimize the supply-demand structure in the real estate market and help companies reduce inventory [2] - Vanke has pledged 117 million shares of its subsidiary, Wanwu Cloud, to Shenzhen Metro Group as collateral for a loan, reflecting the company's strategy to stabilize its cash flow amid current market conditions [3] Group 2 - Times China has disclosed a debt restructuring plan involving approximately $2.9 billion, with over 85.67% of creditors agreeing to the plan, which could alleviate financial pressure and serve as a model for other distressed real estate companies [4] - The CEO of Zhuhai Wanda Commercial Management, Xiao Guangrui, has resigned, and the company has appointed new leadership, indicating a potential shift in strategic direction following recent management changes [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Polyolefins: Not explicitly rated in the given content - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Polyester: Not explicitly rated in the given content - Chlor - alkali: PVC ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach; Caustic Soda ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: Not explicitly rated in the given content Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows complex trends with different products having their own supply - demand situations. Some products are affected by factors such as supply changes, demand seasons, policy news, and cost fluctuations, and their prices are expected to have different trends including range - bound oscillations, maintaining strength, or being under pressure [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol market is in a weak and volatile state. Import arrivals have increased, MTO device operation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has slightly decreased, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. Some olefin malfunctions in the northwest have led to inventory build - up of supporting methanol. Although there are many planned maintenance of methanol devices in the future, the low acceptance of high - priced raw materials by downstream industries during the off - season may keep the market oscillating within a range [2] Urea - The urea market is supported by the spread of export quota news. Supply remains abundant, agricultural demand is expected to weaken, and the operation of compound fertilizer producers has declined. Inventory has transferred from upstream to downstream and ports, with rapid port inventory build - up. The latest Indian tender price has boosted market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited. As agricultural demand enters the off - season, new policy guidance is awaited [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures have shown narrow - range fluctuations. The positive support from polyethylene device maintenance has faded, increasing supply pressure. The market is in the traditional off - season, with pessimistic sentiment and low trading volume. Although there is cost support, the fundamentals are weak. For polypropylene, the increase in the number of maintenance devices in upstream petrochemical enterprises has offset some of the supply - side pressure from new capacity, but the weak demand situation remains [4] Pure Benzene - After overnight oil prices fell, the center of pure benzene has moved down. The slowdown in port inventory build - up and improved downstream purchasing atmosphere are short - term positives. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, but pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate according to seasonal supply - demand trends, conduct monthly spread band operations, and consider short - selling pure benzene at high prices based on the long - term bearish view of oil prices [5] Styrene - Styrene futures have shown narrow - range fluctuations. There is some support from the macro - level and cost, but its own supply - demand is weak. Although domestic supply has slightly decreased, there is no increase in downstream demand, and port inventories have continued to accumulate, with the spot basis weakening [6] Polyester - After overnight oil prices fell, the centers of PX and PTA have declined, and their monthly spreads have rebounded from low levels. PX supply - demand has improved with the decline in PK operation and the increase in PTA operation. Polyester operation has slightly decreased, and the PTA supply - demand pattern has changed from tight to loose, with processing margins, spreads, and monthly spreads under pressure. The PTA spot processing margin has dropped significantly and has the driving force to repair upwards. For ethylene glycol, affected by the decline in oil prices, its price has oscillated downwards. Although there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, port inventory reduction and the improvement of the overall chemical atmosphere have provided some support. There is an expectation of both supply and demand increase in the second half of the third quarter. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices have followed the decline of raw materials. Short - fiber downstream operation has continued to decline, and inventory has slightly increased. Bottle - chip enterprises have cut production, and the processing margin has repaired, but caution is needed due to the declining demand [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices fell at the end of the session. Downstream orders were insufficient, and inventory in East and South China continued to accumulate. With new capacity coming online, production reached a new high. Domestic demand was weak, and export delivery decreased. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on macro - sentiment and cost drivers, and in the long term, it is difficult for prices to rise significantly due to poor demand and high production. Caustic soda has shown narrow - range fluctuations. Enterprise operation has decreased, and inventory has declined month - on - month. Although alumina capacity has slightly increased, the non - aluminum downstream demand is average. With the subsidy price of liquid chlorine remaining, profit has narrowed. In the short term, cost support has strengthened, and the spot price is strong, with the futures price showing a slightly upward - oscillating trend. In the long term, supply pressure remains, and it is difficult for prices to rise significantly [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass has continued a strong trend, with price increases in Shahe and planned price hikes in other regions. This week, the purchasing sentiment of middle and downstream players was good, and inventory in important regions has decreased. With cost rising and spot prices increasing, industry profit has slightly recovered, and capacity has slightly increased. However, processing orders are weak, and the willingness to stock up on raw sheets is low. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment. In the long term, if there are substantial real - estate policies, prices may continue to rise; otherwise, supply contraction is needed for significant price increases. Soda ash has declined from high levels. With high - pressure supply and continuous inventory build - up, Tianjin Alkali and Chongqing Xiangyu face production volume challenges. Photovoltaic production has continued to cut, and the industry is suffering large losses. Although coal prices have risen in the short term, narrowing profit margins, leading enterprises have cost advantages. The supply will remain high - pressure, and it is expected to be a pattern of short - selling at high prices [9]