以下文章来源于申万宏源固收研究 ，作者黄伟平 申万宏源固收研究 . 申万宏源证券研究所债券研究部 【申万宏源固收】黄伟平 栾强 王哲一 杨雪芳 张晋源 张杰 徐亚 摘要 本文主要总结投资者当下最为关心的话题（包括宏观利率、信用及转债等方面），以及我们对该类话题的思考。 关税预期反复，如何把握债市的核心矛盾？ ○ 债券利率与内需正相关、与外需负相关。尽管关税超预期，债市的核心矛盾仍是内需主线，但这也并非说明外需的变化对债市不重要。 降准降息+降低存款利率，流动性及债市会不会利多出尽？ ○ 资金的体验感(逐步向好)：5月>4月>3月>2月 。与Q1"看债做资金"不同，4月以来更多进入"看资金做债"的阶段。 ○ 资金利率波动区间：1.4%-1.60%，负Carry逐步成为过去式。 ○ 从资金、存单看长端利率：10年国债下行需要存单利率下行来推动。当下处于信用偏强、利率偏弱的阶段，长端利率的下行需要一定契机（在央行 恢复国债买入前均可能处于做多左侧）。 ○ 5月存款利率下降金融脱媒将有可能触发理财加大配置信用债力度，阶段性将出现信用偏强、利率偏弱的局面，信用抢筹情况可能持续。 当前什么信用策略和品种表现占优？ ○ 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of deposit interest rates by various banks reflects significant pressure on net interest margins, with a notable trend of rapid follow-up and substantial rate cuts observed across the banking sector [1][4][5]. Group 1: Rate Adjustments - Since May 20, multiple city commercial banks and private banks have quickly followed suit in lowering deposit interest rates, with some banks reducing rates by as much as 30 basis points [1]. - Shanghai Huari Bank has lowered its deposit rates for the third time since April, with a 10 basis point reduction for both demand and 3-year fixed deposits [2]. - As of May 28, several city commercial banks, including Beijing Bank and Jiangsu Bank, have completed their deposit rate adjustments [2]. Group 2: Comparative Analysis - After adjustments, Ningbo Bank's deposit rates remain higher than those of other city commercial banks, with rates for various terms ranging from 0.80% to 1.60% [3]. - In contrast, Changsha Bank has implemented larger rate cuts, with reductions of up to 30 basis points for longer-term deposits [3]. Group 3: Implications of Rate Cuts - The current round of deposit rate cuts is characterized by larger and faster adjustments compared to previous rounds, indicating ongoing pressure on banks' net interest margins [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the average reduction in deposit rates exceeds the LPR cut, which may lead to a structural adjustment in bank liabilities, potentially causing a "deposit migration effect" [6]. - The significant rate cuts may prompt depositors to move funds from lower-rate banks to those offering higher rates or to shift some deposits into non-bank financial products [6].

Group 1 - Major commercial banks have lowered deposit rates, with one-year fixed deposit rates generally falling below 1% [1] - Smaller banks, such as city commercial banks and rural commercial banks, have also followed suit, with one to five-year fixed deposit rates now commonly in the "1" range, diminishing their competitive advantage [1] - Customers are shifting their funds from deposits to wealth management products, money market funds, bond funds, and insurance products to seek higher returns [1] Group 2 - The issuance rates of interbank certificates of deposit have recently increased, indicating a short-term rise in funding costs for banks [2] - The overall pressure on bank liabilities is attributed to declining deposit stability and increased reliance on active liabilities, compounded by the inability of loose monetary policy to fully offset funding demand [2] - Analysts predict that the long-term downward trend in deposit rates will continue, necessitating banks to enhance their active liability capabilities and manage high-cost deposits [2][3] Group 3 - Several listed banks are focusing on controlling liability costs, with strategies including optimizing deposit management and expanding demand for current deposits [3] - Banks are also planning to issue bonds and interbank certificates of deposit strategically when market interest rates are low to manage refinancing pressures [3] - The supply pressure of interbank certificates of deposit may not be sustainable in the medium to long term due to a lack of willingness among banks to actively expand their liability scale [3]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid response of small and medium-sized banks to the recent deposit rate cuts reflects their need to alleviate cost pressures and improve net interest margins amid a challenging financial environment [1][2][3]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - As of May 27, several banks, including Shanghai Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Beijing Bank, have lowered their deposit rates following a lead from state-owned banks starting May 20 [1][2]. - Shanghai Bank's new deposit rates effective from May 24 are 1.15% for one year, 1.20% for two years, 1.25% for three years, and 1.30% for five years [2]. - Ningbo Bank's adjusted rates effective from May 26 are 0.80% for three months, 1.05% for six months, 1.25% for one year, 1.30% for two years, 1.55% for three years, and 1.60% for five years [2]. Group 2: Pressure on Small and Medium-Sized Banks - Small and medium-sized banks face more severe net interest margin pressures compared to larger banks, prompting them to quickly adjust deposit rates to avoid excessive narrowing of the interest spread [3]. - The People's Bank of China's recent interest rate cuts, including a 10 basis point reduction in the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR), have directly influenced these banks to adjust their deposit rates [3]. Group 3: Interest Rate Inversion - The recent adjustments have led to instances of deposit rate inversion, where shorter-term rates are higher than longer-term rates, as seen with New An Bank's two-year rate at 2.35% and three-year rate at 2.20% [4][5]. - The inversion is attributed to banks balancing the need to lower deposit costs while maintaining liquidity, as well as expectations of further rate declines [4][5]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - Small and medium-sized banks are increasingly focusing on attracting short-term deposits to optimize their asset-liability matching and reduce the risks associated with long-term liabilities [5]. - The preference for short-term funding is driven by the need to manage liquidity more effectively and to avoid locking in high-cost long-term deposits [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant inflow of funds into bank wealth management and money market funds due to risk aversion and the trend of "deposit migration" [2][5] - As of April, public money market funds saw an increase of 662.3 billion yuan, pushing the total public fund scale to a historical high of 33.12 trillion yuan [2][3] - Bank wealth management products have also experienced growth, with a current scale of 31.44 trillion yuan, reflecting a net increase of 2.41 trillion yuan since the end of March [2][6] Group 2 - The public fund scale surpassed 33 trillion yuan for the first time, marking a significant milestone in the asset management industry [2][4] - The competition between public funds and bank wealth management is intensifying, especially as interest rates on demand deposits approach zero, making "deposit replacement" a key competitive advantage for asset management firms [2][8] - The decline in deposit rates, with one-year deposit rates falling below 1%, has led to a reduction of 1.39 trillion yuan in household deposits, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 1.57 trillion yuan [5][6] Group 3 - The growth in public funds is primarily driven by money market funds, which reached a total scale of 13.99 trillion yuan, reflecting a net increase of 662.3 billion yuan [3][4] - Other open-end fund types, particularly fixed-income products, also showed significant growth, with bond funds increasing by 140.2 billion yuan [3][4] - The low interest rate environment has compressed the yield space for money market funds and short-term wealth management products, yet they remain attractive compared to the near-zero returns on demand deposits [6][7]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【C 国贸易所 宏观金融数据日报 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 期货执业证号:F3074875: 投资咨询证号:Z0017779 2025/5/28 | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 (bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变 动(bp) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DRO01 | 1.45 | -6.33 | DR007 | 1.62 | -3.59 | | | GC001 | 1.77 | 15.00 | GC007 | 1.76 | 4.00 | | 150 | SHBOR 3M | 1.64 | 0.10 | LPR 5年 | 3.60 | 0.00 | | t | 1年期国债 | 1.46 | 0.76 | 5年期国债 | 1.54 | 1.12 | | J | 10年期国债 | 1.72 | 0.51 | 10年期美债 | 4.51 | -3.00 | 回顾:央行昨日开展了4480亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1.40%,投 标量4480亿元,中标量448 ...

具体来看公募基金各细分类型的4月规模情况： 股票基金：4月规模为4.58万亿元，较3月增加1120.44亿元，环比增长2.51%。 混合基金：4月规模为3.58万亿元，较3月减少12.73亿元，环比微降0.04%。 债券基金：4月规模为6.56万亿元，较3月增加1401.82亿元，环比增长2.18%。 货币基金：4月规模为13.99万亿元，较3月增加6648.39亿元，环比增长5.00%，是总规模增长的核心驱动力。 QDII基金：4月规模为6440.24亿元，较3月增加82.94亿元，环比增长1.31%。 中基协数据显示，截至2025年4月底，中国公募基金资产净值合计33.12万亿元，相比3月的32.22万亿增长了8985.04亿。 | | | | 中国公募基金最新规模数据统计 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 类别 | 封闭式 | | | 开放式 | | | | | 股票基金 | 混合基金 | 货币市场基金 | | 2025年4月 | 净值(亿元) | 37622.76 | 45781.84 | 35810.55 | 139916.63 | ...

继国有大行、股份行新一轮存款利率调降之后，中小银行也迅速跟上。近日，一批上市城商行、农商行 及地方中小银行的存款利率陆续进入"1字头"时代。 存款利率屡创新低，也导致潜在的存款搬家效应有所增强。某股份行客户经理对证券时报记者表示，近 期多位客户定期存款到期后取消续存，将百万规模的存款转入理财产品中，亦有部分银行加大对增额寿 险产品的营销。此外，近期存款利率下调后，部分银行同业存单发行利率走高，反映出银行资金面的压 力有所增加。 城农商行紧跟降息步伐 证券时报记者从上海银行（601229）、宁波银行（002142）、南京银行（601009）、厦门银行 （601187）等多家上市城商行官网看到，近日这些银行已陆续更新人民币储蓄存款利率，调整幅度基本 与国有大行、股份行相同，即两年期及以下定期产品下调幅度在15个基点，而三年期和五年期降幅多数 为25个基点。不过，长沙银行（601577）的利率降幅较大中型银行略大，三年期、五年期最多下调30个 基点，两年期及以下部分产品降幅达20个基点。 除了上市城商行，也有部分地区农商行、村镇银行甚至外资行也紧跟大中型银行的降息步伐。据不完全 统计，包括荆门农商行、通城农商行在内 ...

市场主流观点汇总 2025/5/27 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 | | | 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/5/23 | | | 2025/5/19 至 | 2025/5/23 | | | 黄金 | 780.10 | 黄金 | | | 3.76% | | | 白银 | 8263.00 | 白银 | | | 2.00% | | | 豆粕 | 2952.00 | 豆粕 | | | 1.83% | | | 棕榈油 | 8006 ...

Core Viewpoint - Local commercial banks are following the trend of national banks by gradually lowering their deposit rates, which diminishes their previous interest rate advantage over national banks [1] Summary by Category Deposit Rate Adjustments - Various local commercial banks are reducing their deposit rates in line with national banks [1] - The new deposit rates for Beijing Bank, effective from May 27, are as follows: 1-year at 1.15%, 2-year at 1.20%, 3-year at 1.30%, and 5-year at 1.35% [1] - The adjusted rates for Beijing Bank are now consistent with those of several joint-stock banks, such as Everbright Bank and Citic Bank, indicating a loss of competitive edge in deposit rates [1]