作者 | 周智宇 编辑 | 张晓玲 如果说疫情后的强劲复苏是航空业的"上半场"，那么国泰航空于8月6日交出的2025年中期成绩单，无疑 吹响了"中场战事"的哨声。 财报显示，国泰上半年录得股东应占溢利36.51亿港元，与去年同期基本持平，并宣布派发13亿港元中 期股息，对于一家刚走出历史性困境的企业而言，这是一份稳健的答卷。 然而，在营收543.09亿港元，同比增长9.5%之时，国泰航空净利增速来到1.1%。这是个清晰的信号，宣 告着那个依靠供需失衡便能轻松获取高利润的"顺风局"已经结束。 所谓"中场战事"，核心已不再是关于"复苏"的速度，而是关于"博弈"的深度。当高票价成为过去，当全 球运力涌入导致竞争白热化，当宏观环境充满不确定性，如何守住盈利、争夺份额、布局未来，成为了 摆在国泰乃至整个行业面前的硬仗。这份财报，正是这场"硬仗"的开篇。 正如国泰集团主席贺以礼所言："过去几年建立的强大基础，让我们比以往更有韧性……但影响整个航 空业的这些波动，也会影响到我们公司。" 如果说收益率下滑是"共性难题"，那么子公司和货运业务的表现则反映了区域市场的特殊挑战。 子公司香港快运由盈转亏，亏损约5亿港元。国泰集团行 ...

在各行业"反内卷"的背景下，快递行业的新一轮涨价正在到来。8月4日起，广东省快递底价整体上调 0.4元/票，均价涨至1.4元以上。各家均不得低于1.4元成本价揽收，否则将遭受重罚。多位快递企业人 士对南都记者证实了该消息，"确实是涨价了，0.1kg不能低于1.4元。" 不过有加盟商担忧，如果同行不遵守调价规则，将会给网点带来影响，造成客户流失，还是白费功夫。 还有从业者直言，与其调整底价，更关注派送端网点的派费是否上调。 今年上半年，A股快递企业单票价格持续下滑，二季度部分企业月度单价已跌破2元。7月29日，国家邮 政局召开快递企业座谈会强调，积极推动解决"内卷式"竞争和农村地区领取快件违规收费等突出问题， 维护好行业良好发展业态。 目前各大快递已开始落实相关政策，"通达系"于8月5日起开始涨价，尤其0.1kg的特价件，各家提升幅 度在0.4元～0.5元区间，每增加0.1kg价格提高0.1元；并设置15天锁盘期，避免互抢客户。 内卷 快递行业长期低价内卷 快递底价(也称为"发货价")是指快递公司或物流服务商为寄送包裹所收取的费用，主要影响电商卖家。 每年临近年底电商大促旺季，快递行业都会提前进入新一轮涨价期， ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive and new energy industries are facing intense competition and price wars, leading to significant price reductions and potential oversupply issues, while the food delivery sector is also experiencing aggressive pricing strategies from major players [2][3][11]. Group 1: Automotive Industry - The total market capitalization of the A-share automotive industry index is approximately 5 trillion, accounting for 5% of the total A-share market [1]. - In May 2023, BYD initiated a "100 billion subsidy" campaign, resulting in collective price reductions across 22 smart driving models, with other major players like Chery and Geely following suit [2]. - The average price reduction for new passenger cars in the first half of 2025 is projected to be around 21,000 yuan, with a reduction rate of 11.4% [2]. - The automotive parts industry is seen as having significant entry barriers and competitive advantages, which may provide long-term growth opportunities despite short-term price pressures [6][7]. Group 2: New Energy Industry - The new energy sector is experiencing an imbalance between supply and demand, with production capacity expected to exceed 1100 GW by the end of 2024, while global demand is projected at only 600 GW in 2025 [2]. - Prices for silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are expected to decline year-on-year in the first half of 2025 due to oversupply [2][7]. - Fund managers are cautious about the new energy sector, with some reducing their exposure in anticipation of regulatory changes aimed at curbing excessive competition [7][8]. Group 3: Food Delivery Industry - The food delivery market is witnessing intensified price wars, with major players like JD.com entering the market and offering zero commission for merchants [2]. - Ele.me has announced significant platform subsidies, indicating a competitive landscape where companies are vying for market share through aggressive pricing strategies [2]. - Fund managers recognize the competitive pressures in the food delivery sector, leading to adjustments in their investment strategies, particularly concerning Meituan [6][8]. Group 4: Regulatory Response - Regulatory bodies have begun addressing the issue of excessive competition, with discussions held among industry leaders in the automotive, new energy, and food delivery sectors [3]. - A draft amendment to the Price Law aims to regulate low-price dumping and restore order in market pricing, indicating a shift towards more rational competition [3][11]. - Fund managers are closely monitoring these regulatory developments, as they may significantly impact industry dynamics and investment strategies moving forward [7][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the findings of the "July 2025 China Car Retention Rate Research Report," highlighting the importance of retention rates in assessing brand strength and guiding various automotive business strategies [2][4]. Policy Direction - The recent consumption tax reform targets ultra-luxury vehicles, expanding the tax range to include cars priced over 900,000 yuan, which is a significant reduction from previous thresholds. This reform aims to improve fiscal revenue and stimulate domestic demand [5][6]. Market Trends - The automotive market has seen a price war in the first half of the year, prompting government and industry responses to curb chaotic competition. Although price wars have lessened, a stable market norm has yet to be established [9]. Supply and Demand - There has been a slight decrease in car supply, indicating reduced new car replacements. The second-hand car market benefits from car loans, with a reported loan balance of 78.381 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.06% [12]. Valuation Insights - In the second-hand market dominated by fuel vehicles, new car prices significantly influence second-hand prices. Notably, small sedans and mid-to-large SUVs have shown strong performance in retention rates due to limited new car supply [16]. New Energy Vehicle Developments - The construction of high-power charging facilities is gaining support, addressing previous compatibility issues with the power grid. This shift towards organized development is expected to enhance the promotion of new energy vehicles and charging infrastructure [19]. Market Activity - New car replacement transactions are crucial for stimulating the second-hand market. However, with a slight increase in new car prices and the suspension of subsidies, replacement transactions have not seen sustained growth. The second-hand market remains stable, with plug-in hybrid models facing consumer hesitation [22][23].

雷军，一个穿皮衣的"价格屠夫"，嘴上一直说反价格战、反内卷，其实他才是真正的"卷王"。在各行各 业价格战风起云涌的今天，雷军为中国企业应对价格战提供了一个很好的模版。在SUV赛道豪华品牌下 探、高端自主上攻的背景下，15到30万元区间竞争已经白热化，小米YU7却能在竞争异常激烈的赛道脱 颖而出，今天就来讲讲三个应对价格战的底层逻辑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest earnings report from Supermicro has disappointed investors, leading to a significant drop in stock price despite the company's previous strong performance in the AI sector [1][4]. Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter, Supermicro reported revenue of $5.76 billion, a year-over-year increase of 7.5%, but below analyst expectations of $6.01 billion [1]. - Adjusted earnings per share were $0.41, also falling short of the anticipated $0.44 [1]. - The company has significantly lowered its revenue guidance for the next quarter to between $6 billion and $7 billion, and adjusted earnings per share to between $0.40 and $0.52 [1][2]. Profitability Challenges - The company expects an operating profit margin of only 5% for the next quarter, which is well below the analyst forecast of 7% [2][7]. - Supermicro faces dual pressures from inventory backlog and pricing competition, particularly from Dell [7]. Business Difficulties - Demand for current products is being impacted as customers are waiting for the latest NVIDIA chip products [3][7]. - The company is struggling with old inventory while trying to compete for large AI server orders at lower prices [7]. Future Outlook - Supermicro has revised its revenue forecast for the fiscal year 2026 from $40 billion to $33 billion, a reduction of 17.5% [8]. - The optimistic growth expectations earlier this year, driven by AI product demand, have been replaced by a more competitive pricing environment [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company is seeking to raise funds through a Hong Kong IPO to support its struggling power battery business amid fierce price competition in the Chinese market [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - XINWANDA Electronics Co., Ltd. was founded in 1997 and initially focused on consumer batteries, later entering the power battery sector in 2014 [4]. - The company has become a leading player in consumer batteries and has seen significant growth opportunities in the rapidly developing Chinese electric vehicle (EV) market [4]. - XINWANDA's power battery revenue is projected to grow from 12.7 billion yuan in 2022 to 15.1 billion yuan (approximately 2 billion USD) by 2024 [4]. Group 2: Market Position and Challenges - The company currently holds a 2.87% market share in the Chinese EV battery market, ranking seventh, while CATL and BYD dominate with a combined market share of 67% [5]. - Despite maintaining profitability through its consumer battery business, XINWANDA's power battery segment has been struggling, with a gross margin of only 12.9% compared to 20.2% for consumer batteries [5]. - The power battery business has incurred losses, with a reported loss of 1.56 billion yuan in 2023 alone [5]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - To navigate the challenging market landscape, XINWANDA plans to accelerate its overseas expansion, particularly as the domestic EV market becomes saturated [6]. - The company has initiated a global production capacity layout, including a significant battery production base in Thailand with an investment exceeding 10 billion yuan [6]. - XINWANDA aims to enhance its competitive edge by increasing R&D investments to create differentiated technology barriers [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company, XINWANDA, is seeking to raise funds through a Hong Kong IPO to support its struggling power battery business amid fierce price competition in the industry [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - XINWANDA was founded in 1997 and initially focused on consumer batteries, becoming a leading manufacturer in the mobile phone battery sector by 2020 [3]. - The company entered the power battery market in 2014 and has seen significant growth opportunities due to the rapid development of China's new energy vehicle industry [3]. - In 2022, XINWANDA's power battery business generated revenue of 12.7 billion yuan, projected to grow to 15.1 billion yuan (approximately 2 billion USD) by 2024 [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Despite overall profitability, XINWANDA's power battery segment has been operating at a loss, with a reported loss of 1.56 billion yuan in 2023 [5]. - The gross margin for the power battery business was only 12.9% in Q1 2023, compared to 20.2% for its consumer battery segment [5]. - The company has maintained profitability over the past decade, with Q1 2023 revenue of 12.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 387 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21% [5]. Group 3: Market Position and Competition - XINWANDA holds a 2.87% market share in China's electric vehicle battery market, ranking seventh behind industry leaders CATL and BYD, which together account for 67% of the market [4]. - The company faces intense competition and pricing pressures, leading to a challenging environment for profitability in the power battery sector [5]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - XINWANDA plans to accelerate its overseas expansion due to the saturation of the domestic electric vehicle market, with 40% of its overall sales coming from international markets in Q1 2023 [6]. - The company is investing over 10 billion yuan in a large battery production facility in Thailand, which has received local government approval [7]. - To navigate the price war, XINWANDA aims to increase R&D investment to build differentiated technology and achieve a pricing advantage [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 13.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 560 million yuan, down 40% year-on-year [3][10]. - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue across various product categories, with waterproof membranes, coatings, and mortar powder revenues decreasing by 9%, 17%, and 6% respectively [10]. - Retail revenue has continued to rise, accounting for approximately 37% of total revenue, despite a 7% year-on-year decline, while engineering revenue decreased by 12% [10]. - The company has begun to see the effects of cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with a gross margin of approximately 25.4% for the first half of the year, down 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - A price adjustment strategy was implemented, with price increases for waterproof coatings and other products aimed at restoring profitability [10]. - The company is expanding its overseas market presence by acquiring a 100% stake in Chile's Construmart S.A. for 1.23 billion USD, which will enhance its distribution capabilities in the region [10]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.25 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.21 billion yuan, indicating an attractive dividend yield [10]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue for 2024 is projected at 28.06 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.08 billion yuan [14]. - The estimated net profit for 2025 and 2026 is approximately 1.8 billion yuan and 2 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding valuations of 16 and 14 times [10][14].

Core Viewpoint - Xiangfenghua (300890.SZ) reported its first half-year loss since its listing, with a loss of 2.95 million yuan, indicating significant financial distress in the lithium battery anode materials sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Xiangfenghua's revenue decreased by 2.80% to 688 million yuan, while net profit plummeted from 38.24 million yuan in the same period last year to a loss of 2.95 million yuan [1]. - The company's gross margin fell to 12.44%, down 57% from its peak of 28.79% in 2020, with the second quarter gross margin hitting a historical low of 10.43% [1][2]. - The net profit margin dropped from 5.3% to -0.49%, indicating a loss of 0.49 yuan for every 100 yuan in sales [1]. Industry Context - The lithium battery anode materials industry is facing severe price competition, with prices dropping by 40% from 2020 to 2024, leading to a staggering 98% decline in industry profits [2]. - The global production capacity for anode materials surged from 811,000 tons in 2020 to 3.546 million tons in 2024, an increase of 337% [2]. Capacity and Production Issues - Xiangfenghua's production capacity reached 90,000 tons by May 2025, with a recent expansion in its Fujian facility, despite the industry facing overcapacity [2]. - The demand for anode materials is projected at 2.47 million tons in 2025, while production capacity is expected to exceed 3.6 million tons, leading to significant oversupply [4]. Debt and Cash Flow Concerns - As of June 2025, Xiangfenghua's interest-bearing debt stood at 1.733 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 52.06%, reflecting a 3% increase from the end of 2024 [5]. - The company's operating cash flow turned negative, with a net outflow of 181 million yuan in the first half of 2025, and accounts receivable surged to 669 million yuan, a 32% increase year-on-year [5][6]. Management and Strategic Challenges - The core management has begun to reduce their stakes, with significant share reductions by major shareholders in late 2024 and early 2025 [8]. - Key projects, including the R&D center and artificial graphite production, have faced delays, indicating a lack of confidence in market recovery [8]. Market Dynamics - The industry is experiencing a "death spiral" where increased production leads to greater losses, with major players forced to accept unprofitable orders to maintain cash flow [9]. - Xiangfenghua's R&D spending was only 2.336 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing less than 4% of total revenue, which is significantly lower than competitors [9]. Future Outlook - The only bright spot for Xiangfenghua is the energy storage sector, which saw a 64% increase in battery shipments in 2024, although the contribution of anode materials to this segment is limited [10].