期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 31 日 铝：小幅震荡 氧化铝：价格走弱 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20625 | 20 | -165 | 260 | 820 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20615 | ー | l | l | ー | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2608 | 2 | -31 | 1 ୧ | 239 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 125168 | 5183 | -19441 | -25888 | -97960 | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 261363 | -11344 | -66119 | 7766 | 131691 | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成 ...

Report Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Core View - Gold continued to decline. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, but two Fed officials voted against the decision. Powell stated that no decision has been made on the first rate cut in September as expected by the market, but "downside risks in the labor market are obvious." With the progress of trade negotiations, the US dollar index strengthened, and gold prices weakened continuously. Silver also declined against the backdrop of an overall correction in industrial products. After the US reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, risk aversion cooled, but there is still some uncertainty in China-US negotiations. Trump has been pressuring the Fed to cut rates, but rates are expected to remain unchanged in July, and the market is speculating on a possible rate cut in September. Recent US economic data shows resilience, US CPI has rebounded, and the impact of tariff policies is smaller than feared, with subsequent impacts likely to gradually increase. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill further boosts expectations of US fiscal deficits, and the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold holdings. The long-term drivers for gold still provide support, but the high price makes upward movement hesitant. Gold and silver are likely to continue to show a volatile performance [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - For Shanghai Gold 2510, the current price is 770.68, down 3.10 (-0.40%) from the previous close, with an open interest of 214,105 and trading volume of 206,379. For Shanghai Gold 2512, the current price is 772.76, down 3.00 (-0.39%), with an open interest of 115,693 and trading volume of 25,383. For Shanghai Silver 2510, the current price is 9,090.00, down 102.00 (-1.11%), with an open interest of 392,370 and trading volume of 689,866. For Shanghai Silver 2512, the current price is 9,110.00, down 103.00 (-1.12%), with an open interest of 210,377 and trading volume of 71,085 [2] Spot Market - The previous closing price of Shanghai Gold T+D was 769.48, up 2.29 (0.30%); the previous closing price of London Gold was 758.13, down 9.39 (-1.22%); the previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T+D was 9,166.00, up 3.00 (0.03%); the previous closing price of London Silver was 37.10, down 1.10 (-2.87%) [2] Inventory - The current value of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory is 33,462 kg, an increase of 2,199.00 kg from the previous value; the current value of the silver inventory is 1,208,094 kg, an increase of 3,228.00 kg. The current value of COMEX gold inventory is 38,514,461, an increase of 347,929.37; the current value of COMEX silver inventory is 504,338,309, an increase of 2,041,750 [2] Related Derivatives - The current value of the US dollar index is 99.9684, up 1.06% from the previous value; the S&P index is 6,362.9, down 0.12%; the US Treasury yield is 4.38, up 0.92%; Brent crude oil is 72.75, up 0.01%; the US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.2123, up 0.44%. The current value of the SPDR Gold ETF holdings is 44,315 tons, an increase of 1.00 ton; the SLV Silver ETF holdings is 44,315 tons, an increase of 1.00 ton. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver is 33,486, an increase of 481; the net position in gold is 32,895, a decrease of 1,451 [2] Macroeconomic News - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time early today, in line with expectations. Powell said it's too early to say whether the Fed will cut rates in September as the financial market expects. Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1. The US GDP annualized quarterly growth rate in Q2 was 3%, significantly exceeding the expected 2.4%. The core PCE price index annualized quarterly growth rate in Q2 was 2.5%, down from 3.5% but higher than the expected 2.3%. The US ADP employment in July increased by 104,000, exceeding expectations but still far below last year's average [3][4]

美国老牌车企福特汽车周三警告称，美国对进口汽车以及钢铝征收的关税对今年业绩造成的拖累，可能 会超过此前预期。 受此影响，福特股价在美股周三盘后交易中一度下跌约3%。 关税影响料加大 福特在周三发布的财报中表示，其第二季度业绩因关税受到8亿美元冲击。 就全年而言，福特将关税对总收入的预期影响上限上调了5亿美元，至30亿美元。该车企还预计，通过 采取应对措施将抵消其中10亿美元的总关税成本，今年"与关税相关的净不利影响约为20亿美元"。 福特首席执行官Jim Farley表示，公司每天都与白宫保持联系，最终目标是降低关税成本，尤其是零部 件关税。"我们认为，这存在很大的利好空间，具体取决于与（政府）的谈判进展如何。" Farley说道。 福特首席财务官Sherry House表示，福特之所以上调关税影响预期，是因为美国对墨西哥和加拿大征收 关税的持续时间比预期更长。她还提到了对钢铝征收的高额关税。 由于福特强大的国内制造基础，该车企受到的关税影响轻于其一些美国竞争对手。 通用汽车近日发布的财报显示，美国政府关税政策导致其第二季度损失11亿美元，净利润同比暴跌 35.4%至19亿美元。通用还预计，今年关税对其业绩的 ...

Politico：特朗普计划于周四签署新行政令，对未能在周五截止日期前达成贸易协议的几个国家征收更高的关税。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: FOMC's decline releases hawkish expectations; Gold trend intensity is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][6]. - Silver: Prices have fallen from recent highs; Silver trend intensity is -1, also suggesting a bearish view [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Price Data**: - Gold:沪金2510昨日收盘价773.78,日涨幅0.30%,夜盘收盘价770.68,夜盘跌幅0.32%;黄金T+D昨日收盘价769.48,日涨幅0.30%,夜盘收盘价767.00,夜盘跌幅0.32%;Comex黄金2510昨日收盘价3327.90,日涨幅0.08% [2]. - Silver:沪银2510昨日收盘价9192,日跌幅0.03%,夜盘收盘价9090.00,夜盘跌幅1.32%;白银T+D昨日收盘价9166,日涨幅0.03%,夜盘收盘价9062,夜盘跌幅1.23%;Comex白银2510昨日收盘价37.175,日跌幅3.15% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Gold:沪金2510合约对2512合约价差昨日成交206,379,较前日减少13,553,持仓214,105,较前日增加1,698;Comex黄金2510昨日成交199,901,较前日增加90,801,持仓322,961,较前日增加256,168 [2]. - Silver:沪银2510昨日成交689,866,较前日增加97,939,持仓392,370,较前日减少373;Comex白银2510昨日成交71,289,较前日增加29,664,持仓121,325, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **ETF and Inventory**: - Gold: SPDR黄金ETF持仓955.37,较前日减少1;沪金库存33,462千克,较前日增加2,199;Comex黄金库存（前日）38,166,532金衡盎司,较前日增加132,494 [2]. - Silver: SLV白银ETF持仓（前天）15,149.90,较前日减少24;沪银库存1,208,094千克,较前日增加3228;Comex白银库存（前日）502,296,559金衡盎司,较前日增加599,929 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: - Gold:黄金T+D对AU251 -价差昨日为 -4.30, unchanged from the previous day;买沪金12月抛6月跨期套利成本昨日为4.77,较前日减少0.87;黄金T+D对伦敦金的价差昨日为385.68,较前日减少0.60 [2]. - Silver:白银T+D对AG2510价差昨日为32,较前日增加6;沪银2510合约对2512合约价差昨日为 -8,441,较前日增加16;买沪银12月抛6月跨期套利成本昨日为73.41,较前日减少11.3;白银T+D对伦敦银的价差昨日为4,247,较前日减少799 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: - 美元指数昨日为99.94,日涨幅1.05%;美元兑人民币（CNY即期）昨日为7.18,日涨幅0.04%;欧元兑美元昨日为1.15,较前日减少0.01;美元兑日元昨日为148.59,较前日增加0.05;英镑兑美元昨日为1.21, unchanged from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed has kept rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, with two voting members supporting rate cuts due to slowing economic growth. Powell did not provide guidance on a September rate cut, emphasizing uncertainties in tariffs and inflation and stating that the job market has not weakened [2][4]. - **China's Policies**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to decide on the convening of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and analyzed the current economic situation and economic work. China's preliminary budget for child - rearing subsidies is 90 billion yuan, and applications will be accepted in late August [7]. - **Trade Policies**: Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper, etc. (excluding cathode copper and refined copper), causing a 20% plunge in New York copper prices. The US suspended the minimum exemption for low - value goods. Trump said the US would impose a 25% tariff and "punishment" on India, and announced a comprehensive trade agreement with South Korea, imposing a 15% tariff, with South Korea to provide $350 billion in investment to the US. Trump postponed the implementation of a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods by seven days [7]. - **Economic Data**: The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3%, better than expected. The US ADP employment in July increased by 104,000, exceeding expectations, but employers are more cautious about hiring decisions [7]. - **Natural Disaster**: An 8.8 - magnitude earthquake struck the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia, triggering a tsunami alert in the Pacific Rim, and China launched a second - level emergency response to marine disasters [5].

韩国总统李在明宣布韩国已与美国“结束关税谈判”，并表示这批3500亿美元的资金“将在促进韩国企业积极进入美国市场方面发挥作用，这些行业都是我们具有优势的行业，例如造船、半导体、电池、生物技术和能源”，其中1500亿美元将用于“造船合作，为韩国企业进入美国造船业提供强有力的支持”，并补充说，“实现互利互惠的结果非常重要，而不仅仅是追求单方面的利益。”外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普表示，美韩双方达成一致，美国将对韩国征收15%的关税。同时，美国不会被征收关税。韩国将对美全面开放贸易，接受包括汽车、卡车和农产品在内的美国产品。 ...

各位老铁，今天帮主带你们直击美联储的火药味现场！昨天鲍威尔这老爷子一开口，美股三大指数直接"跳水"，道指跌了快300点，连华尔街的交易员都 坐不住了——9月降息的概率从63%暴跌到45.7%，这节奏简直比坐过山车还刺激！ 要说鲍威尔今天的表现，那可真是把"太极宗师"的精髓发挥得淋漓尽致。当被记者逼问"啥时候降息"时，老爷子直接甩出一句"我不会给具体答案"，活活 把问题踢回给了数据。更绝的是他那句"我们会基于全面数据分析和风险平衡评估做决策"，听得我都想给他配个二胡拉《太极张三丰》的BGM了。 不过抛开这些场面话，鲍威尔这次讲话确实藏着不少玄机。首先他承认经济增速放缓，消费者支出和房地产都在拖后腿，但又强调"经济处于稳固状态"， 这不是典型的"嘴上说不要，身体很诚实"嘛？最有意思的是他对通胀的态度：一方面说"通胀回落进程过半"，另一方面又提醒关税可能推高商品价格，这 简直就是在走钢丝啊！ 但市场显然不买账。话音刚落，美股就开始"用脚投票"，连2年期美债收益率都跳涨了7个基点。LPL的首席经济学家罗奇倒是看得明白："美联储已经做 好了行动准备，就等经济数据给个台阶下。"这话糙理不糙——9月降息的大门其实还留着条缝 ...

2025.07. 31 本文字数：369，阅读时长大约1分钟 据央视新闻，当地时间7月30日，美国总统特朗普发文称，美国已与韩国达成"全面完整"的贸易协 议。根据协议，韩国将向美国提供3500亿美元，用于由美方拥有并控制的投资项目。此外，韩国还 将采购价值1000亿美元的液化天然气或其他能源产品，并承诺再投资一笔大额资金，用于其本国投 资目的。该金额将在韩国总统李在明两周后访美举行双边会谈时公布。 特朗普表示，美韩双方达成一致， 美国将对韩国征收15%的关税 。同时，美国不会被征收关税。韩 国将对美全面开放贸易，接受包括汽车、卡车和农产品在内的美国产品。 微信编辑 | 七三 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 推荐阅读 多个"新大学"首年招生分数线直超985高校，原因何在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, indicating a cautious approach towards potential rate cuts due to ongoing inflation risks from tariffs and a stable labor market [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Signals - There is internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding policy direction, with two board members opposing the decision to keep rates unchanged, marking the first time since 1993 that two members have voted against a collective decision [2] - Powell and the majority of officials prefer to maintain a tight monetary policy, citing that the inflation effects from tariffs will gradually manifest over the coming months, impacting U.S. businesses and consumers [2][3] - Powell acknowledged that current monetary policy is somewhat restrictive, contributing to downward pressure on the labor market, despite a rebound in GDP growth [3] Group 2: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is committed to maintaining its independence, despite pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates, emphasizing that monetary policy aims to achieve full employment and stable inflation, not to assist the government in reducing debt costs [3][6] - The structure of the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, which involves a committee of 12 voting members, ensures that even if Trump were to dismiss Powell, the overall direction of monetary policy would remain unchanged [6] Group 3: Future Outlook on Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is not prepared to cut rates in the near term, with future decisions dependent on inflation trends, which are expected to rise in the latter half of the year primarily due to tariffs [4][5] - The current fiscal policy environment is expected to remain relatively loose, which may lead to sustained economic growth and inflation, suggesting that monetary policy could remain tight for an extended period [5]

特朗普将最主要的精炼铜进口形式排除在关税计划之外（市场原本预期所有精炼金属进口都将被征税）后，纽约铜价在数分钟内暴跌约20%。并创下历史最大单日跌幅。根据文件，美国将自8月1日起对进口半成品铜产品（例如铜管、铜线、铜棒、铜板和铜管）及铜密集型衍生产品（例如管件、电缆、连接器和电气元件）普遍征收50%的关税。白宫表示，铜输入材料（例如铜矿石、精矿、锍铜、阴极铜和阳极铜）和铜废料不受“232条款”或对等关税约束。 ...