■邢萌 更为重要的是，全球投资者看到的不仅是当下的经济增速，更看到我国以科技创新为驱动、发展新质生 产力的清晰路径与未来潜力。在新能源汽车、人工智能等新兴产业领域，我国正实现从技术追随者向创 新引领者的关键跃迁。这一面向未来的产业升级，意味着经济增长模式从规模扩张转向质量驱动，为长 期偿债能力提供了可持续的内在保障。 其次，中国始终保持"以我为主"的宏观政策定力，政策储备充足，制度型开放蹄疾步稳，有力增强了国 际资本的信心。 我国凭借充裕的政策工具箱与独立的决策空间，能够在全球经济波动中实施精准的逆周期调节。与此同 时，我国持续推进制度型开放，促进金融基础设施与国际标准全面对接，显著提升国际资本在交易便利 性、合规安全与风险管理方面的信心。这种政策自主性与制度开放性的有机结合，为主权资产创造了难 得的确定性溢价，使中国主权债券在全球金融动荡中展现出"稳定器"功能，为国际资本提供了独特的长 期配置价值。 最后，中国主权债券兼具安全资产、收益资产、对冲资产三重属性，有效满足全球投资者多元化需求。 近日，中国财政部代表中央政府在卢森堡成功发行了40亿欧元主权债券。其中，4年期20亿欧元，发行 利率为2.401%；7 ...

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 26 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) | | | 表1：国债期货11月25日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2512 | 115.720 | 115.600 | 115.320 | 115.460 | -0.400 | -0.35 | 45123 | 32229 | -15079 | | TL2603 | 115.540 | 115.380 | 115.160 | 115.280 | -0.380 | -0.33 | 123788 | 135646 | 16728 | | TL2606 | 115.610 | 115.550 | 115.310 | ...

Core Points - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year loans, marking six months of stability since the last reduction in May [1] - The stability in LPR is attributed to strong macroeconomic performance, including better-than-expected exports and rapid development in new productivity sectors [1][2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth and ensure liquidity in the financial system [2][3] Group 1 - The LPR has been a key reference for loan pricing since the reform in August 2019, influencing corporate financing and household credit costs [2] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in October was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for personal housing loans was also 3.1%, down about 8 basis points [2] - The PBOC plans to deepen interest rate marketization reforms and improve the quality of LPR quotes to better reflect market conditions [3] Group 2 - The PBOC emphasizes a proactive monetary policy to achieve stable growth, balancing short-term and long-term economic adjustments [3] - There is potential for further monetary policy easing to support economic recovery, especially in light of the need for sustained growth [3] - The focus is on optimizing the structure of the economy and promoting growth driven by domestic demand and consumption [3]

Core Insights - The book "Growth is the Hard Truth" by Yu Yongding provides a historical commentary on China's macroeconomic issues from 2019 to 2025, analyzing the causes of declining growth rates and the challenges of structural reforms [1][2] - The author emphasizes the need for enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments in macroeconomic policies to help China move out of the "L-shaped" growth phase [1][6] Summary by Sections Economic Growth and Policy Adjustments - The book discusses the evolution of China's macroeconomic policies, highlighting the shift in focus from high growth to stabilizing prices and addressing overcapacity since 2011 [3][4] - It notes that China's GDP growth rate has declined from 10.3% in 2010 to a target of 5% by 2025, indicating a significant slowdown in economic momentum [5] Key Issues and Recommendations - The author identifies critical issues such as the housing market, local government debt, and the impact of the pandemic, providing judgments and suggestions for each [1] - The book argues against the notion that a decline in growth to 6% or lower is inevitable, advocating for proactive fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate demand [7][8] Infrastructure and Local Government Debt - Infrastructure investment is highlighted as a crucial tool for macroeconomic regulation, with a call for increased central government support to alleviate local government debt issues [8] Global Perspectives and Lessons - The book reflects on changes in Western macroeconomic thought post-global financial crisis, discussing the implications of aggressive fiscal and monetary policies adopted by Western countries [8] Annual Economic Analysis - The final chapter provides an annual analysis of China's economic situation based on statistical data, offering policy recommendations to achieve growth targets [9]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant risks posed by real estate speculation in China, which has led to a disconnect between the real economy and financial markets, potentially triggering a deeper economic crisis [1][5][28] Group 1: Economic Growth and Real Estate - China's rapid economic growth has been significantly supported by urbanization and infrastructure development, with real estate becoming a major investment avenue [1][3] - The real estate market has attracted substantial capital, with many investors drawn to the high returns compared to other sectors [3][5] Group 2: Risks of Real Estate Speculation - Experts, including economist Wen Tiejun, warn that real estate speculation is built on a virtual economy, diverting funds from the real economy and leading to structural imbalances [5][7] - The influx of capital into real estate has resulted in a shortage of funds for manufacturing, innovation, and research, exacerbating economic disparities and social inequality [5][9] Group 3: Financial Market Dynamics - The excessive expansion of financial markets has intensified the erosion of the real economy, with funds increasingly directed towards real estate and financial derivatives rather than productivity enhancement [7][15] - The reliance on virtual capital has led to a "bloodless" state in the real economy, diminishing the growth potential of enterprises, particularly small and medium-sized ones [15][17] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To mitigate the risks of a more severe economic crisis, it is crucial to implement counter-cyclical adjustment measures and restore balance in the economic structure [19][28] - Strengthening financial market regulation and curbing real estate speculation are essential to prevent the further detachment of virtual capital from the real economy [25][26][30]

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in China remains unchanged for six consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, indicating a stable monetary policy environment [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 1.40%, making it difficult for LPR to decrease [1] - The net interest margin for commercial banks was 1.42% at the end of Q3, unchanged from Q2 but down 10 basis points from the end of last year, indicating pressure on banks to lower LPR [1] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans in October was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year, while the average for new personal housing loans was also 3.1%, down about 8 basis points year-on-year [2] Group 2: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - Future monetary policy is expected to focus on precision, coordination, and balance, with an emphasis on optimizing the structure rather than the scale of monetary supply [2][3] - The PBOC aims to maintain a reasonable interest rate relationship to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy and reduce speculative activities [3] - There is potential for new rounds of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the end of the year, which could lead to further decreases in LPR and stimulate domestic financing demand [3]

Core Viewpoint - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, aligning with market expectations and previous values [1][2] Group 1: LPR and Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 300 billion yuan reverse repo operation with a fixed rate of 1.4%, indicating a net liquidity injection of 110 billion yuan after accounting for maturing repos [1] - The stability of the LPR since May 2025 reflects a steady macroeconomic environment, driven by strong export performance and growth in new productive sectors [2][3] - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was reported at 3.1% in October, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year, while the same rate for personal housing loans was also 3.1%, down about 8 basis points [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - Economic growth momentum is expected to slow down, with recent macro data indicating declines in investment, consumption, and industrial production [3] - There is potential for new monetary easing measures, including interest rate cuts, to stimulate internal financing demand and support economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 [3] - Regulatory measures may be introduced to lower the 5-year LPR, aiming to reduce the burden of high mortgage rates on residents and stimulate housing market demand [3]

Core Viewpoint - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, aligning with market expectations and indicating stability in monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: LPR and Monetary Policy - The LPR has not changed for six consecutive months since a 10 basis point drop in May 2025, reflecting a stable macroeconomic environment [2]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted a 300 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.4%, indicating efforts to maintain market liquidity [1]. - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) has shown a downward trend, with the overnight Shibor down by 5.6 basis points to 1.364% [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - Recent economic data shows a decline in domestic investment, consumption, and industrial production, raising concerns about economic growth momentum [3]. - The PBOC is expected to implement new monetary policies, including potential interest rate cuts, to stimulate economic growth and address high mortgage rates [3]. - The anticipated measures include targeted reductions in the 5-year LPR to alleviate the burden of high housing loan rates and stimulate market demand [3].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November has entered a stage of accumulating positive factors. The bond market environment has improved. Considering the central bank's bond - buying, the bottom of Treasury bond futures is supported. With the slowdown of economic momentum, the expectation of monetary easing is expected to heat up again, and investors should seize the opportunity to buy on dips. [12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: The November LPR quote remained unchanged, which was in line with expectations and had limited impact on the bond market. The bond market showed a narrow - range oscillation. The buying of 5 - year and 7 - year Treasury bond cash bonds was relatively obvious, possibly related to the central bank's bond - buying. [8] - **Interest Rate Cash Bonds**: The yields of major - term interest - rate cash bonds in the inter - bank market all changed within a narrow range. By 16:30 PM, the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond 250016 reported 1.8090%, up 0.2bp. [9] - **Funding Market**: After the impact of the tax payment period ended, the inter - bank funding market became looser, and the central bank shifted to net withdrawal. There were 310 billion yuan of open - market maturities, and the central bank injected 300 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 10 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index dropped significantly, indicating further relief of funding pressure. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits dropped 5.69bp to 1.3652%, and the 7 - day rate dropped 2.74bp to 1.4857%. The medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.62 - 1.64%. [10] - **Conclusion**: In terms of the economic fundamentals, since June, various domestic economic indicators have continued to weaken, especially the investment side has accelerated its decline. The export, which was the main support of the economy, also turned negative in October. The combination of export decline and weak domestic demand led to price indicators remaining low. The fundamentals still face certain pressure. In terms of policies, the current combination of loose monetary and fiscal policies has been strengthened again. The restart of Treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand to the bond market. The credit - expansion effect of loose fiscal policies may not be significant in the short term, and the impact on the bond market should be limited. The central bank may increase the space for easing. Overall, the bond market environment has improved, but there are still some uncertain disturbances. [11][12] 2. Industry News - The November LPR quote remained stable: the 1 - year LPR was reported at 3%, and the over - 5 - year variety was reported at 3.5%. [13] - The Shanghai Real Estate Brokerage Industry Association organized an integrity initiative to strengthen industry self - discipline and maintain the real - estate market order. [13] - Recently, multiple "two - important" construction projects have started. "Two - important" construction will be an important focus of the stable - growth policy, and infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a moderate growth rate. [13] - The China Chemical and Physical Power Sources Industry Association will issue a notice on referring to the cost index of lithium iron phosphate and standardizing industry development to prevent low - price dumping. [14] - Japan plans to launch a new expenditure plan of 17.7 trillion yen and needs to issue more bonds to raise funds. [15] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Data on the trading of various Treasury bond futures contracts on November 20, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest, were presented. [6] - **Money Market**: Information on the term - structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted inter - bank pledged - repo rate and the inter - bank deposit pledged - repo rate, was provided. [29][31] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) was provided. [34]

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for both the 1-year and 5-year terms, reflecting stable market expectations and a consistent monetary policy environment [1][2]. Summary by Sections LPR Announcement - The 1-year LPR is set at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both unchanged from previous values [1]. - The announcement aligns with market expectations, indicating stability in the monetary policy [1]. Market Liquidity and Interest Rates - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 300 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.4%, while 190 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 110 billion yuan [1]. - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed a downward trend, with the overnight Shibor decreasing by 5.6 basis points to 1.364% and the 7-day Shibor down by 2.7 basis points to 1.46% [1]. Economic Context and Future Outlook - The stability of the LPR is attributed to a strong macroeconomic performance, with key indicators such as investment, consumption, and industrial production showing signs of decline [2][3]. - The potential for new monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts, is anticipated to stimulate domestic demand and support economic growth [3]. - The regulatory body may consider lowering the 5-year LPR to address high mortgage rates and boost housing market demand [4].