Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of the global financial landscape, particularly in light of the U.S. debt reaching $35 trillion and the shifting dynamics of international currency and trade, with China emerging as a key player in establishing a new financial order centered around the renminbi [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Debt and Market Reactions - The U.S. debt crisis has not triggered a global market upheaval as it has in the past, indicating a shift in international financial dynamics [3]. - Historically, the U.S. relied on the "dollar anchor" to manage its growing fiscal deficits, but this reliance is diminishing as countries like China develop alternative trade mechanisms [3][5]. Group 2: China's Strategic Positioning - China is actively building a financial "firewall" to protect its economy from external shocks and is gradually shifting its industrial base to reduce dependency on foreign technology [5][7]. - The rapid advancements in Chinese technology, particularly in sectors like AI and high-end manufacturing, are challenging the traditional dominance of U.S. innovation [7][10]. Group 3: Global Economic Order - The article highlights a growing trend among countries to reassess their reliance on the U.S. dollar, with the expansion of BRICS nations symbolizing a move towards greater economic sovereignty [7][9]. - The U.S. response to these changes has been to strengthen alliances and impose restrictions on Chinese industries, which may inadvertently accelerate the process of de-dollarization [9][10]. Group 4: Future Implications - The ongoing competition between the U.S. and China in technology and finance is reshaping global economic rules, with China positioning itself as a rule-maker rather than a rule-taker [10][12]. - The article suggests that the global financial landscape is undergoing a transformation, with countries reevaluating their strategies in light of shifting power dynamics [12].

Group 1 - Trump's recent statements reflect a "superior" attitude towards China and other countries, claiming he is "not just managing America, but the world" [1][3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary echoed Trump's views, blaming China for the trade imbalance, stating that China's exports to the U.S. are five times greater than the reverse, and calling for China to ease tensions [3] - China's response highlighted that the trade war was initiated by the U.S., warning that there are no winners in a trade war and urging for dialogue based on equality and respect [3] Group 2 - The trade war has significantly impacted American farmers, with losses exceeding $20 billion due to reduced exports to China, as China diversifies its imports from other countries [5] - Trump's administration has faced increasing criticism from the public, including former supporters, with 52% of voters believing he has overstepped his authority [5] - The perception of Trump's governance as a threat to the system of checks and balances has led to growing dissent within the Republican Party [5] Group 3 - Trump's belief in "managing the world" is increasingly being rejected by the American public, with historical patterns suggesting that countries acting with hegemony will eventually decline [7]

本文来自微信公众号：风云学会陈经，题图来源：视觉中国 4. 一般人不明白这事意义有多大。J10CE是四代半战机，价格7000万美元，E是出口型，而被打下的阵 风是2.85亿美元一个。印度在4月28日刚又下了75亿美元26架的阵风订单。印度和巴基斯坦相比是财大 气粗，巴基只有20架J10C，却实现了空优压制。 5. 中国商品一般比西方要便宜很多，四分之一价格不奇怪，但是一般被认为性能不如西方，军机更是如 此。军事对战是最客观的，巴基斯坦0损失，印度5个先进战机没了，在全球军火圈里，必然要掀起滔天 巨浪。搞军机采购的没有傻子，不会被印度认知战忽悠。发展中国家有很多订单，到处考察买军火，因 为中国战机没有实际成绩将信将疑。 6. 俄罗斯和法国订单，都会被重新考虑，要不要当冤大头。谁也不想当印度，花了大钱，沦落到空军连 巴基斯坦都打不过。羊群效应马上就要发生，巴基斯坦已经期盼巴造JF17订单。 7. 东南方向，中国主力战机是更为强大的J20。从印巴战斗结果看，PL-15射程在200公里以上。还有更 厉害的PL17空空导弹，据说射程400公里以上。南华早报经常披露各种逆天武器，据说加上高速无人机 引导，能打击1000公 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Wells Fargo economists predict that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April will rise by 0.2% after a surprising decline of 0.1% in March, leading to an annual CPI rate of 2.3%, the lowest in four years [1] - Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25-4.50% and emphasizes the need to observe the impact of recently implemented trade policies on economic growth and inflation [3] - UBS Wealth Management highlights that concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve could significantly damage the dollar's safe-haven status, with currencies like the yen and Swiss franc benefiting in the current environment [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Allocation - Analysts at Societe Generale note a trend of investors shifting from U.S. assets to European assets, although this transition may take time to fully materialize [4] - Bank of America indicates that the recent surge in interest in European markets does not necessarily signal a structural shift, as many institutional investors remain cautious about large-scale capital transfers from the U.S. [5] - Citic Securities maintains a preference for gold over copper and oil in the commodities market, citing OPEC+'s unexpected production increase as a factor that may lead to a supply surplus in the oil market [6][5] Group 3: Commodity Price Forecasts - KPMG has revised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the end of the year down from $70 to $60 per barrel, reflecting improved global oil supply conditions [6] - Barclays has postponed its forecast for the next Bank of Japan interest rate hike to January 2026, adjusting its final rate prediction down to 1.00% [7] Group 4: Domestic Market Insights - Galaxy Securities reports a significant increase in global gold ETF inflows in Q1 2025, with net purchases by central banks remaining strong, supporting the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices [8] - The automotive market in China is expected to see a rebound in sales, driven by the release of new models and the end of consumer hesitation following the Shanghai Auto Show [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China are becoming increasingly untenable, with expectations of a de-escalation in the near future as both sides express willingness to negotiate [1][3][5] - US Treasury Secretary acknowledged the difficulties of the current tariff standoff and anticipated a period of easing tensions, which aligns with President Trump's recent signals to cool down the situation [1][3] - The Chinese government, represented by its finance minister, emphasized the importance of equal dialogue and negotiation to resolve trade disputes, countering the US's unilateral tariff actions [3][5] Group 2 - The articles highlight that the US's aggressive tariff policies have not only harmed its own economy but have also led to a backlash from traditional allies, who are now opposing US's unilateralism [5][7] - Data shows that China's total foreign trade continues to rise, while its trade share with the US is gradually declining, indicating a reduced dependency on the US and a strengthening of China's economic resilience [5][7] - The call for multilateralism and cooperation among nations at recent meetings underscores a collective push against US's trade practices, with a focus on maintaining a rules-based international trading system [7]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 宏观策略评论 2025 年 5 月 7 日 深度理解美国关税战的逻 辑和影响 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观及策略：宏观经济 证券分析师：徐高 (8610)66229055 gao.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519050002 2025 年 4 月 2 日，美国宣布对包括中国在内的 57 个国家和地区在原有关 税基础上，额外加征"对等关税"，以试图压缩美国的贸易逆差。但美国给 出其贸易不平衡的解释，以及由此逻辑而提出的"对等关税"政策，在经济 学上完全站不住脚。过去半个世纪美国长期贸易逆差的主要成因是美元。 在二战后的国际货币体系中，美元是最主要的国际储备货币。这使得美 国获得了向全世界征"铸币税"的权力。美元凭空带给美国的购买力，显著 推升了美国的内需，从而让美国从之前的贸易顺差国变成了布雷顿森林 体系 1971 年解体后的逆差国。但美元在让美国薅全球羊毛的同时，也给 美国带来了产业空心化和社会撕裂两大弊端。 面对全球化带来的挑战，美国的"上策"是放弃美元霸权，推行共同富裕。 但这说起来容易做起来难。美国既 ...

智通财经APP获悉，Eurizon SLJ Capital首席经济学家斯蒂芬·任(Stephen Jen)最新警告，随着亚洲国家加速调整外汇储备结构，美元可能面临高达2.5万亿美元 的"雪崩式"抛售压力。这家资管机构在周三发布的报告中指出，亚洲出口商与投资者长期积累的巨额美元头寸，正因美国贸易政策转向与汇率波动风险加剧 而面临瓦解风险。 报告分析称，过去数十年间，亚洲经济体凭借对美贸易顺差积累了规模庞大的美元资产。以中国大陆、中国台湾、马来西亚、越南为代表的出口导向型经济 体，其央行及机构投资者持有的美元储备可能达到2.5万亿美元量级。Jen团队强调："这些未对冲美元波动的'裸多头寸'犹如悬在美元头上的达摩克利斯之 剑，一旦集中撤离将引发全球货币市场剧烈震荡。" 特朗普政府推动的贸易保护主义政策正成为催化剂。报告指出，亚洲政策制定者可能通过两种路径应对：一是将海外美元资产汇回本土以支撑本币升值，作 为贸易谈判筹码;二是加速多元化外汇储备配置，降低对美元的依赖。值得注意的是，仅中国就可能因美联储降息周期启动，推动约1万亿美元计价的海外资 产回流国内——这一数字与Jen去年提出的"美元微笑"理论预测一致。 市场已 ...

Core Viewpoint - The increasing debt pressure in the United States is undermining the foundation of the dollar's credibility, with Trump's policies posing a significant threat to the "petrodollar system," leading to the emergence of the new Triffin dilemma. In contrast, China's economy is solidifying its foundation for high-quality development and the transition between old and new growth drivers [1]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The long-term positive fundamentals of the Chinese economy remain unchanged, supported by a massive market of 1.4 billion people and the world's largest and most comprehensive industrial production system [1]. - China's fiscal policy has ample room compared to Western countries, with sufficient policy reserves available [1]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The moderately loose monetary policy in China ensures ample liquidity in the market [1]. - The effectiveness of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, such as "two new" and "two重," is significant, contributing to the stabilization of the real estate market [1]. Group 3: Market Stability - The stabilization of the real estate market lays a solid foundation for the stability and prosperity of the capital market [1].

在美国深陷关税战之际，中国趁低价狂囤2.5亿桶原油，4月进口量更是创18个月新高。中国这是在为什 么做准备？ 关税战开打之后，西方媒体不禁跌破眼镜：原以为中国的石油需求会稍微消退，谁料到居然大逆转！ 【西方媒体发现，2.5亿桶石油正运往中国】 【特朗普向全世界打响关税战】 更值得一提的是，中国的一些炼油厂甚至推迟了年度保养计划，就是为了趁着利润率高，猛造汽油、航 空燃油这些热门产品。看来，这真是个大家都想挤上去分享蛋糕的好时机。 当然，还有一个非经济因素，地缘政治的风卷云涌。中国和石油输出国关系良好，不把俄罗斯、伊朗、 委内瑞拉等国拒之门外。这些国家面临西方制裁，急需市场，于是降低油价，用薄利多销的策略维持出 口。 据说，俄罗斯的乌拉尔原油价格，就比国际油价便宜个10美元左右。这种情况下，中国企业能不动心 吗？ 不过，事情也没这么简单。中国还在利用这一机会扩充能源储备。因为有分析认为，未来美国或许会打 美元霸权的牌，影响中国的能源进口。 今年4月，中国原油日均进口量飙升至约1100万桶，比1月份增加了近200万桶，刷新18个月来的新纪 录。粗略一算，这相当于至少2.5亿桶石油入库。这到底咋回事？ 首先，我们得 ...

据环球时报报道，美国加利福尼亚州州长、民主党人纽森表示，不赞同美国共和党籍总统特朗普对华所征收的畸高关税。纽森表示，全球贸 易不是零和博弈，他认识到美中之间是"相互依存的关系"。尽管纽森称，加州政府尚未与中方进行任何直接的高层对话，但他试图将加州描 述为一个向中国和其他贸易伙伴"伸出开放之手"的"稳定的合作伙伴"。他提到，自己2023年访华时，与中方在"州级、区域和市级以及联邦 政府层面"，都签署了谅解备忘录。 白宫新闻处发布消息称，在中美贸易对抗升级的背景下，美国政府可能对从中国进口的商品征收百分之两百四十五的关税。白宫还列出了对 中国征收关税的明细：百分之一百二十五的对等关税；因芬太尼问题征收的百分之二十的关税；还有根据三零一条款对某些商品征收的关 税。也就是说，部分出口美国的中国商品，在关税叠加之后，确实存在达到百分之两百四十五关税的情况。有网友已经列出来，目前能查询 到被美方征收顶格关税的中国商品有针头和注射器。 美国民众（资料图） 为了反制美国，中国可能正在抛售美国国债。2025年4月中国单月抛售573亿美元美债，直接导致30年期美债收益率飙升至5%，创下1981年 以来的最高纪录。这种"精准爆破" ...