风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 申银万国报告指出，春节前后油价将呈现 "地缘主导、基本面托底" 的特征。这意味着，短期内的地缘 政治新闻，都可能引发油价的剧烈波动。市场交易的核心并非当下的原油库存或需求数据，而是对未来 潜在供应中断概率的定价。 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数聚焦于石油和天然气勘探、开采、加工 及销售等相关业务，其成分覆盖产业链上下游企业，以反映油气行业上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数 具备显著的周期性特征，其走势受国际油价波动影响较大。 2月5日，石油板块迎回调，石油ETF（561360）收跌超2%，地缘冲突催化，回调或可布局。 当前油价已高度蕴含冲突预期，走势主要由地缘消息牵引，随地缘风险升温，油价也有望震荡上行。 ...

流动性方面，油气ETF博时盘中换手2.23%，成交509.57万元。拉长时间看，截至2月4日，油气ETF博时 近1周日均成交3798.95万元。 消息面上，地缘政治因素为标普油气板块波动核心带动因素，叠加供需及产量扰动，板块及原油产品价 格震荡运行。价格方面，2月4日隔夜WTI 3月原油期货收涨3.05%至65.14美元/桶，布伦特4月原油期货 收涨3.16%至69.46美元/桶，上期所原油期货主力合约夜盘收涨3.32%至473.5元/桶。标普全球石油指数2 月2日跌1.80%、3日反弹2.53%。产量端，哈萨克斯坦田吉兹油田复产滞后，1月日均产量仅100-110万桶 （正常180万桶）；美国冬季风暴致上周末原油日产量减少至多200万桶。2026年全球石油供需过剩，预 计供应1.063亿桶/日、需求1.043亿桶/日。 截至2026年2月5日 13:01，中证油气资源指数(931248)下跌2.88%。成分股方面涨跌互现，洲际油气领涨 3.87%，恒基达鑫上涨1.51%，胜通能源上涨1.24%；杰瑞股份领跌9.27%，通源石油下跌4.97%，中曼石 油下跌4.88%。油气ETF博时(561760)下跌3.01 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy - chemical products on February 5, 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride, and gives an "oscillating" view for each product [1][2][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rose significantly. WTI March contract rose $1.93 to $65.14/barrel (3.05% increase), Brent April contract rose $2.13 to $69.46/barrel (3.16% increase), and SC2603 rose 15.2 yuan to 473.5 yuan/barrel (3.32% increase). The US - Iran negotiation is facing twists and turns. EIA reported that US crude and distillate inventories decreased while gasoline inventories increased last week. Cold - snap - induced output decline supports oil prices, but geopolitical variables cause fluctuations. It is recommended that investors participate with light positions [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of fuel oil (FU2603) and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2604) rebounded. The supply of both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient, while the bunker fuel加注 activity is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. Affected by geopolitics and crude oil costs, the fundamentals are mixed with long and short factors, and there is pressure in the follow - up. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract (BU2603) rebounded. This week, the social inventory rate increased, the refinery inventory level decreased, and the plant operating rate decreased. In the early and middle of February, the inventory in the north is for downstream stocking, and the inventory in the south has some arbitrage demand. During the Spring Festival, the refinery and social inventories will increase. The asphalt is less volatile than crude oil, and the cracking spread has been repaired. The basis has weakened. Refineries are looking for alternative raw materials, and the production schedule may be adjusted later. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and raw material imports [2][4]. - **Polyester**: TA605, EG2605, and PX 603 all rose on Wednesday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are slightly differentiated and generally weak. Multiple MEG devices have restart, maintenance, and shutdown plans. With the decline of crude oil prices and the implementation of polyester production cuts, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the first quarter. Polyester raw material prices are expected to oscillate with costs. Attention should be paid to unexpected device changes, cost - end price fluctuations, and the risk of insufficient demand recovery in late February [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts (RU2605, NR, BR) all rose. As of February 1, China's natural rubber social inventory increased. The natural rubber exports from Cote d'Ivoire in January decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The rubber fundamentals show increasing supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of external macro - factors [5]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot prices in different regions and the prices of downstream products are given. The domestic methanol production is expected to decrease slightly in February, and the import volume will decline. The demand from eastern MTO devices will decrease. The decline in Iranian shipments will support the price, but the reduction of MTO device load may put pressure on inventory reduction. The methanol price is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [5]. - **Polyolefin**: On Wednesday, the prices and production profits of polypropylene and polyethylene are provided. The supply is expected to increase slightly. In February, downstream enterprises will enter the holiday, leading to passive inventory increase. After the Spring Festival, the market will start to digest inventory. The fundamentals are not strongly supported in February, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation of refineries and society. The polyolefin price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China adjusted strongly. In February, the enterprise maintenance is less, and the production will remain high. The real - estate construction is weakening, and the demand for PVC downstream products is limited. The "rush - to - export" demand is generated due to the cancellation of export tax - rebate on April 1. There is an expectation of supply reduction in the future, and the PVC price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6][7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on February 5, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, basis change, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that as of the week ending January 30, US crude and distillate inventories decreased while gasoline inventories increased due to winter storms. Crude oil production dropped to the lowest level since November 2024, and the crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma decreased by 743,000 barrels [11]. - The Iranian Foreign Minister clarified the official position on the Iran - US talks in Oman, stating that the talks will be held at around 10 a.m. on the 6th in Muscat. Earlier, an Iranian official source said the talks were cancelled due to new US conditions and differences in the negotiation issues [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle - chip [13][15][17][19][21][23][25][27][28]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle - chip [30][33][37][38][40][41]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil (01 - 05, 05 - 09), asphalt (main and sub - main contracts), European - line container shipping index monthly spread, PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), ethylene glycol (01 - 05, 05 - 09), PP (01 - 05, 05 - 09), LLDPE (01 - 05, 05 - 09), and natural rubber (01 - 05, 05 - 09) [43][45][48][51][53][55][57]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil (internal and external markets, B - W), fuel oil (high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio), BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [59][62][64]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report presents the production profit and processing fee charts of various energy - chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA processing fee, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash - flow [66][68]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple "Outstanding Analyst" awards and led the energy research team to win many industry service awards. She has over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research and has served many listed companies [71]. - **Du Bingqin**: Director of Energy and Chemical Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in Applied Economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won multiple industry analyst awards and her team has won industry service awards. She is deeply involved in domestic and foreign energy industry research [72]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst of natural rubber and polyester at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in finance. She has won multiple analyst awards and her team has won a research team award. She is mainly engaged in the research of related futures varieties [73]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, PE, PP, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with an engineering master's degree. He has passed the CFA Level III exam and has experience combining financial theory with industrial operations [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, focus on the development of the Iran situation; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The energy sector has been significantly affected by the Iran situation. The news of the planned negotiation between Iran and the US led to a sharp decline in oil prices, but the situation has since become more complex, increasing market concerns and causing a rebound in the geopolitical premium of crude oil. The agreement between the US and India will reduce the consumption capacity of Russian oil and support international oil prices. The rise in crude oil prices has led to an increase in downstream energy and chemical products including LPG. The Iran situation remains uncertain, and the upcoming negotiation between the US and Iran on February 6 may cause market fluctuations [1] - From the perspective of LPG's fundamentals, there are both bullish and bearish factors. Overseas supply has tightened marginally, and Saudi Arabia has raised its February CP. However, high raw material costs have suppressed the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, resulting in a negative feedback on demand. The price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civil gas has also put additional pressure on the PG market. The game between warehouse receipts and delivery has disrupted the market, especially for the PG2603 contract. If the impact of the macro and geopolitical factors weakens, the market may enter a range - bound state again. In the medium term, the LPG balance sheet is expected to have an oversupply situation, and the supply side has relatively high elasticity [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Analysis - On February 4, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4450 - 4500 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3790 - 4150 yuan/ton; North China market, 4200 - 4520 yuan/ton; East China market, 4120 - 4400 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4840 - 5130 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton; South China market, 4798 - 4890 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China, was 620 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and the price of butane was 610 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4746 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, and butane was 4669 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 612 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and the price of butane was 602 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4685 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, and butane was 4608 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iran situation. Inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies are not provided [3]

来源：华夏时报 国内成品油价格开启2026年第二轮上涨。 2月3日下午，国家发改委发布公告称，近期国际市场油价波动上升，根据2月3日的前10个工作日平均价 格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自2月3日24时起，国内汽、 柴油价格每吨分别上涨205元和195元。 对于下一轮国内成品油调价预期，金联创成品油分析师王延婷告诉《华夏时报》记者，新一轮计价周期 首个工作日，变化率幅度将在-0.4%，对应汽柴油下调幅度在20元/吨附近。若后期地缘局势趋于缓和， 国际原油价格存下行空间，新一轮零售价下调概率较大。 成品油二连涨 新一轮油价调整窗口，国内成品油价格迎来二连涨。 隆众资讯成品油分析师徐雯雯告诉记者，本轮调价后，全国大多数地区车柴价格6.6—6.8元/升，92号汽 油零售限价在6.9—7.0元/升。 地缘冲突扰动 近期两周左右时间，原油价格持续走高，以美原油为例，最低处于55美元/桶，最高涨到66美元/桶，上 涨幅度超过10美元/桶；布伦特原油期货价格更是自2025年9月份以来首次突破70美元/桶。 国际原油价格上涨的主要原因之一，便是美国对伊朗部署军队和航母等，加大了地区的紧张 ...

FICC日报 | 2026-02-05 沪指重返4100点，美国1月"小非农"不及预期 市场分析 通胀叙事大趋势不改。12月11日中央经济工作会议召开：会议强调，深入实施提振消费专项行动；强调深入整治"内 卷式"竞争制定和实施；会议确认，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。1月15日，央 行宣布下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点，各类再贷款一年期利率降至1.25%，其他期限档次利率同 步调整。1月20日，财政部官网集中发布5个重要政策文件，涵盖个人消费贷款、设备更新、中小微企业贷款、服 务业经营主体贷款及民间投资专项担保五大领域，以 "延长期限、扩大范围、提高标准" 为核心导向，国内政策推 升通胀的趋势明确。此外，全球的地缘局势仍紧张，在民粹主义和贸易保护主义思潮下，全球争夺矿产和能源资 源的局势明朗。特朗普称就格陵兰岛的谈判即将达成一致。从宏观趋势的角度，仅有经济衰退和加息预期才能为 火热的通胀情绪带来降温。基本面上，受新订单和产出的增长推动，美国制造业活动在1月份意外扩张，增速创下 自2022年以来最快水平。美国1月ADP就业人数增长 2.2万人，低于预期4.5万人。当地时 ...

复旦大学中东研究中心研究员邹志强向南都记者分析，此次，阿曼、土耳其、沙特、埃及等国家一直在 积极为美伊谈判斡旋，并发挥了比较重要的作用。在美伊双方长期缺乏互信的情况下，这些第三方国家 的斡旋起到了十分重要的沟通桥梁作用，让美伊双方能够接触、表达观点，并且能够提供双方都可能接 受的谈判场所。 邹志强表示，这些国家之所以积极推动，一方面是不希望局势走向战争，他们不愿意看到地区形势陷入 紧张和冲突。另一方面，他们也希望借此发挥更大的地缘政治作用，展现自身的大国形象，并提升在与 美国等各方关系中的重要性。 美国稍早前曾拒绝伊朗将原定会议地点由土耳其伊斯坦布尔改到阿曼的提议。此后，多位中东领导人紧 急游说特朗普政府放弃退出谈判的威胁，强烈敦促美国不要取消会议。 南都记者了解到，阿曼此前曾经在多个地区冲突中扮演调停人的角色。2025年，在阿曼斡旋下，伊朗和 美国举行多轮间接谈判。但核心分歧难解，美国要求伊朗完全放弃铀浓缩，伊朗强调其和平利用核能的 权利不可剥夺。同年6月，以色列突袭伊朗引发双方"12日战争"，在此期间，美国轰炸伊朗关键核设 施。伊美谈判自此中断。 当地时间2月4日，伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐发文称，伊朗与美国就 ...

供需之上：关键矿产地位迎来长周期战略性抬升 20260204 摘要 美国试图通过"关键矿产计划"和资本入股等手段控制上游资源，重构 全球供应链，以减少中国在全球供应链中的核心地位，但多数国家选择 供应链多元化。 美国通过地缘政治事件（如伊朗、格陵兰事件）、关税政策和自贸条约 限制等手段影响全球资源市场，旨在获取更多战略资源并限制竞争对手。 特朗普政府在拉美地区采取行动，如试图干预巴拿马运河投资和对委内 瑞拉采取军事行动，以确保美国在该地区的战略优势。 地缘政治波动和经贸摩擦常态化将对关键矿产产生影响。美国或将继续 通过制造经贸危机传递稳定信号，战略资源再调整，以获取更多资源并 限制竞争对手。 中国收紧稀土出口管制，将含重稀土元素产品纳入管制，导致氧化钕等 价格上涨。同时，加强国内稀土开采和冶炼总量调控，保障战略资源供 给安全。 Q&A 关键矿产的地位在未来是否会迎来长周期的抬升？如果是，主要原因是什么？ 关键矿产的地位确实可能会迎来长周期的抬升，主要原因在于地缘政治因素。 最近一系列事件表明，全球供应链和资源控制正成为大国博弈的新焦点。例如， 美国前总统特朗普成立了关键矿产计划，并且美国资本入股了一些关键矿产 ...

| | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/2/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1737.8 | 0.00% | 54.3 | 97 | | 1826 | - 57 | | | EC2604 | | 1247.6 | 0.78% | 544.5 | 24199 | | 32761 | -1468 | | | EC2606 | | 1534.0 | 0.02% | 258.1 | 3370 | | 14222 | 764 | | | EC2608 | | 1604.6 | 0.42% | 187.5 | 396 | | 1494 | ાર | | | EC2610 | | 1135.7 | 0.63% | 656.4 | 1963 | | 8185 | 508 | | | Ｆ菱 | | 前一日 | 前两日 | 前三日 | 日环比 | | | 周环比 | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 日报观点 【1】期货盘面：BU 2603主力合约日内拉涨后有所回落，维持区间震荡。收盘价3361，较昨日收盘价 涨幅1.69%，盘中最高触及3384，最低3311。06远月合约涨幅1.88%。 【2】现货基本面：2月4日重交沥青华东市场高端价为3350元/吨，环比持平；重交沥青华东低端价为 3250元/吨，环比持平。现货市场高低端价格维持相对坚挺，并非类似盘面2月2日出现超大幅度的调 整，也即盘面受资金流动性和地缘情绪影响较为显著。 【3】短期展望：今日沥青低位反弹，基本面无过多变化，仍旧跟随地缘升温以及市场风险偏好回暖波 动。美国和伊朗军方在海空领域对峙，加剧对紧张局势升级的担忧。据英国海上安保公司消息，当地时 间2月3日，一艘悬挂美国船旗的油轮Stena Imperative轮在霍尔木兹海峡"一度遭到多艘伊朗炮艇逼近"。 美伊地缘局势依旧具有不确定性，短期扰动对油价形成驱动，沥青跟随走强。 短期来看，沥青绝对价格围绕地缘局势演绎而运行。伊朗已要求更改6日与美国谈判的地点和形式，将 谈判地点从土耳其伊斯坦布尔市改为海湾国家 ...