金融期货早评 宏观：美国就业市场回温 【市场资讯】1）中国央行四季度例会：继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周 期调节力度。2）北京楼市新政：放宽非京籍家庭购房条件、支持多子女家庭住房需求。3） 贝森特暗示美联储未来方向：通胀"区间制"，取消"点阵图"，支持财政部，回归"幕后"。4） 圣诞前夕美国就业市场回温，上周首申 21.4 万人，较前值小幅回落。 【核心逻辑】海外方面，美国 GDP 数据数据公布，三季度 GDP 超预期增长 4.3%，创两年 最快增速，整体表现相对强劲，在一定程度上打击了降息预期。美国就业市场回温，上周 首申 21.4 万人，较前值小幅回落，数据显示劳动力市场仍具韧性。国内方面，政治局会议 与中央经济工作会议延续"稳中求进"总基调，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的 货币政策；明年重点工作以扩大内需为首要任务，核心在于推进城乡居民增收与释放服务 消费潜力，同时依托创新推动新旧动能转换。而 11 月经济数据显示工业生产韧性尚存，社 会消费品零售同比增速降至 1.3%，内需表现偏弱，仍需政策托底。 人民币汇率：涨声一片 【行情回顾】前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week's weekly oil prices closed lower. Geopolitical events such as the "blockade" of Venezuelan tankers and the situation in Russia - Ukraine affected the market. Global supply - demand remains weak, with global oil inventory drawdown this week. The monthly spreads of crude oil in three markets rebounded slightly on Friday, and the crack spreads of global gasoline and diesel continued to weaken. The U.S. refinery utilization rate is at a high level, and China's is fluctuating. The fundamental surplus is confirmed, and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela has limited impact on crude oil supply - demand. Attention should be paid to the Israel - Iran situation. There is a large surplus in the first quarter, and it is advisable to short - allocate monthly spreads and absolute prices [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - India's Reliance Industries resumed importing crude oil from Russia to supply the Jamnagar refinery [3]. - The White House ordered its troops to focus on isolating Venezuelan sanctioned oil for at least the next two months [3]. - Due to terminal maintenance delays, the loading volume of Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) blend oil in December was cut by 33% to 1.14 million barrels per day [3]. - The supertanker "Kelly" loaded with oil cargo from Venezuela returned to Venezuelan waters [3]. - The U.S. will impose sanctions to deprive Maduro of resources including oil profits for the "Sun Group" [4]. Inventory - U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending December 19 was 2.391 million barrels, compared with the previous value of - 9.322 million barrels [4]. - U.S. API refined oil inventory for the week ending December 19 was 0.685 million barrels, compared with the previous value of 2.511 million barrels [4]. - U.S. API gasoline inventory for the week ending December 19 was 1.09 million barrels, compared with the previous value of 4.835 million barrels [4]. EIA Report - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 1.274 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.3% [16]. - U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 0.249 million barrels to 412.2 million barrels in the week ending December 12, an increase of 0.06% [16]. - U.S. domestic crude oil production decreased by 1000 barrels to 13.843 million barrels per day in the week ending December 12 [16]. - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 20.521 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.82% compared with the same period last year [16]. - U.S. crude oil exports increased by 0.655 million barrels per day to 4.664 million barrels per day in the week ending December 12 [16]. - U.S. commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.525 million barrels per day last week, a decrease of 0.064 million barrels per day compared with the previous week [16]. Price Changes - From December 18 - 24, 2025, WTI crude oil price changed by - $0.03, BRENT by - $0.14, and DUBAI by - $0.04 [3]. - SC price increased by 3.80, and OMAN decreased by 0.24 [3]. - Japanese naphtha CFR price and related spreads, Singapore fuel oil 380CST and related spreads, and prices of various domestic and international refined products also had corresponding changes [3].

岁末地缘几件事：委内瑞拉，以伊，俄乌 20251224 摘要 美国对委内瑞拉海域封锁加剧，油轮拦截导致委内瑞拉石油库存积压， 特朗普政府对油价上涨的担忧减弱，可能升级对委内瑞拉的施压，但大 规模地面入侵的可能性仍然较低。 以色列与伊朗的潜在冲突焦点已从核武器转向伊朗导弹能力，内塔尼亚 胡计划与特朗普讨论伊朗问题，特别是其超高音速弹道导弹对中东稳定 的威胁。 内塔尼亚胡面临司法指控和执政联盟内部矛盾等多重政治困境，可能通 过推动与伊朗的冲突来转移国内压力，但短期内美国支持以色列对伊朗 发动进攻的可能性较低。 特朗普政府逐渐减少对中东事务的关注，担心卷入区域冲突可能导致油 价上涨，不再将中东视为核心利益区域。 俄乌双方在美国特使调停下进行了多轮谈判，但在领土和安全保障等关 键问题上仍存在重大争议，双方分别与美国进行单独会谈，根本性矛盾 尚未解决。 Q&A 委内瑞拉局势在 2025 年底的演变和未来可能的发展趋势是什么？ 委内瑞拉局势在 2025 年底的演变主要受到美国政策的影响。特朗普政府将委 内瑞拉视为美国核心利益区，采取了一系列施压措施，包括海上封锁和政治压 力。近期，美国加强了对委内瑞拉海域的封锁，拦截了多 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical disturbances affect the crude oil market, and the rebound of the chemical industry will be tortuous. The industry is expected to face challenges due to high inventories of liquid chemicals and geopolitical uncertainties [2][7] - Different energy and chemical products are expected to show various trends, including oscillation, rebound, and weakening, depending on factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical situations, and cost support [3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Russia's crude oil exports reach a two - and - a - half - year high, with high floating storage. Oil prices should be treated with an oscillatory approach [9] - **Main Logic**: International crude oil futures continue to oscillate. Geopolitical trends are crucial. More refineries start to buy Russian oil as the discount narrows, but floating storage is increasing. Refined oil crack spreads are weak, and the oil price should be seen as oscillatory [12] - **Outlook**: The crude oil market may return to a pattern of weak supply - demand and continuous inventory accumulation after geopolitical tensions ease. Investors should adopt an oscillatory view [12] Asphalt - **View**: South China asphalt spot is at a discount to Shandong, and asphalt futures prices oscillate [13] - **Main Logic**: OPEC+增产 in December, the possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement exists, and the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation leads to expectations of raw material supply disruptions. The futures price oscillates widely. Also, high production in Hainan, South China's spot discount, and weak supply - demand all affect the price [13][14] - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued [14] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices oscillate widely [3] - **Main Logic**: OPEC+增产, the possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the tense US - Venezuela situation drive the rebound. However, high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region suppresses demand, and refinery demand is weak in the off - season [14] - **Outlook**: Supply - demand is weak [14] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil to oscillate [14] - **Main Logic**: It follows crude oil, has strong product attributes, but faces negative factors such as falling shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Currently, the supply has unexpectedly decreased, pushing up the valuation [14] - **Outlook**: It follows crude oil fluctuations due to low valuation and various negative factors [14] PX - **View**: Rumors of polyester factories continue to ferment, and the increase in the price of PX has narrowed [16] - **Main Logic**: International oil prices oscillate upwards, providing cost support. The rise of downstream PTA also supports PX, but rumors of polyester factory production cuts limit the increase. The supply of PX is sufficient [16] - **Outlook**: The short - term price will maintain high - level oscillation, with high profits. Caution is needed when chasing the price or short - selling [17] PTA - **View**: Rumors of polyester factory production cuts ferment, and the upward space is gradually narrowing [17] - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is high, and PTA's spot and processing fees have recovered. However, rumors of production cuts in polyester factories may limit the continuous increase [18] - **Outlook**: The price follows the cost to oscillate at a high level, and the processing fee will operate within a range [18] Pure Benzene - **View**: Supported by the strong external market, pure benzene oscillates [19] - **Main Logic**: The support comes from the external market, with US devices restarting. However, the domestic situation is poor, with high inventory pressure and a downward - adjusted future expectation [21] - **Outlook**: There is still inventory pressure, and the external market provides temporary support [21] Styrene - **View**: There are constraints on both rising and falling, and styrene oscillates [22] - **Main Logic**: It has been oscillating weakly recently due to negative feedback from downstream ABS. The lower support comes from the external pure benzene market, while the upper limit is due to pure benzene inventory pressure and the upcoming inventory build - up of styrene [23] - **Outlook**: It is about to enter a period of inventory build - up, with obvious upper - limit constraints. Export transactions may stimulate short - term rebounds [23] Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Overseas device shutdowns and capital sentiment disturbances lead to a low - level rebound of ethylene glycol [24] - **Main Logic**: After hitting a new low, the price rebounds due to supply adjustments such as the planned shutdown of Taiwan's devices. However, the inventory build - up period has not ended, and demand may be dragged down by polyester factory production cuts [26] - **Outlook**: The short - term price will maintain range - bound oscillation, and the rebound height is limited [26] Short - Fiber - **View**: The pattern of strong upstream and weak downstream is prominent, with serious differentiation and compressed profits [27] - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is strong, but the downstream demand is weak, resulting in compressed profits. The absolute price follows the upstream cost to oscillate [28] - **Outlook**: The price follows the upstream to oscillate strongly, and the processing fee is under short - term pressure [28] Polyester Bottle - Chip - **View**: The price is supported by upstream raw material costs [29] - **Main Logic**: The upstream costs of TA and EG increase, providing support. The market trading atmosphere is okay, and the price follows the raw materials to oscillate strongly in the short term [29] - **Outlook**: The absolute price fluctuates with the raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger support [29] Methanol - **View**: The inland market is weak, and the coastal market is stalemate. Methanol should be seen as oscillatory [32] - **Main Logic**: There is a significant differentiation between the inland and coastal markets. The inland supply is abundant, and the coastal inventory is high, suppressing the price [33] - **Outlook**: Short - term wide - range oscillation [33] Urea - **View**: Supported by compound fertilizer and export demand, the futures price oscillates strongly [33] - **Main Logic**: Environmental restrictions on supply end have ended, and demand from compound fertilizer and exports provides support. The inventory has decreased [34] - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation is strong, but it may not last long. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction, off - season storage progress, and compound fertilizer factory operations [34] LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The futures price rebounds, the basis weakens, and LLDPE should be treated with an oscillatory view [37] - **Main Logic**: The futures price rebounds. Geopolitical factors cause short - term fluctuations, while the fundamental support is limited. The demand is entering the off - season [37] - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [38] PP - **View**: Slight increase in maintenance, PP oscillates [38] - **Main Logic**: PDH profits are under pressure, and there is an expectation of increased maintenance. Geopolitical factors affect short - term fluctuations, and the supply pressure is high due to the off - season and high inventory [38] - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [39] PL - **View**: Supported by PDH maintenance expectations, PL oscillates [39] - **Main Logic**: PDH maintenance expectations boost the price. The enterprise shipment pressure is high, and the downstream purchases at low prices. The powder profit is under pressure, and the low start - up rate has a negative impact [39] - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [39] PVC - **View**: The market sentiment is positive, and the short - term futures price is strong [40] - **Main Logic**: Macro - level sentiment boosts, and micro - level supply - demand has marginal improvement, but the oversupply expectation cannot be reversed. The production may stabilize, downstream demand is weak seasonally, and the cost is expected to be weak [40] - **Outlook**: Although the supply has marginal improvement, the rebound space may be limited. The market may return to weakness if marginal enterprises resume production [40] Caustic Soda - **View**: Supported by low valuation, caustic soda rebounds at a low level [42] - **Main Logic**: Macro - level sentiment boosts, but short - term inventory reduction may not change the oversupply situation. The demand from alumina and non - aluminum industries has different trends, and the cost is relatively stable [42] - **Outlook**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and the price rebounds. However, the medium - term market may be under pressure if upstream production reduction is limited [42] Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Inter - Period Spreads - The report provides inter - period spread data for multiple varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in different time - period spreads [44] Basis and Warehouse Receipts - Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil are presented, reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices and the quantity of warehouse receipts [45] Inter - Variety Spreads - Inter - variety spread data, including spreads between PP and methanol, PTA and EG, etc., are given, indicating the relative price relationships between different varieties [46] Group 5: Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index of CITIC Futures commodities on December 24, 2025, are reported, showing the performance of different indices and their historical and recent fluctuations [287][288]

Market Performance - The BU 2602 contract experienced intraday fluctuations, closing at 2996 with a gain of 0.27%, reaching a high of 3004 and a low of 2975, accumulating a 1.3% increase over the past week [2][32] - The next month contract 2603 saw a slight increase of 0.13%, maintaining a contango structure with near low and far high prices [2][32] Spot Market - The price of Shandong heavy asphalt remained stable at 2920 CNY/ton, with a 7-day cumulative change of 0% [2][34] - In East China, heavy asphalt is priced at 3090 CNY/ton, also unchanged, with a basis of 94 CNY/ton, reflecting a 7-day cumulative decrease of 93 CNY/ton [2][34] Crack Spread Changes - The BU-Brent spread recorded -71 CNY/ton, with a 7-day cumulative increase of 46 CNY/ton [2][34] - The main BU contract rose by 0.27%, while Brent increased by 0.2%, indicating a stable oil price influenced by geopolitical disturbances in Venezuela [2][34] Fundamental Changes - Venezuela's oil export issues remain a key risk, with sanctions causing oil to be stored on tankers. Chevron is allowed limited operations, but the majority of oil is supplied by PDVSA to China, which imports about 80% of Venezuela's crude [3][33] - Disruptions in Venezuelan supply could impact China's heavy oil and asphalt supply, potentially tightening regional availability and supporting asphalt prices [3][33] Inventory and Price Trends - The dilution asphalt discount widened to -14.03 USD/barrel as of December 23, compared to -13.46 USD/barrel a week earlier [4][34] - Total social and domestic inventory data recorded 642,000 tons, reflecting a 0.9% week-over-week increase, indicating a slow destocking trend [4][34] Strategy - The current strategy suggests a wide-ranging single-sided fluctuation in asphalt prices [6][35]

卡尼政府对华政策的"护栏"思维，本质上是加拿大在全球格局深刻变革下在战略焦虑与实际利益之间进 行权衡的结果。从经济结构看，加拿大长期过度依赖美国市场，其经济韧性在"美国优先"贸易保护主义 冲击下显得尤为脆弱。美国对加拿大钢铁、铝和汽车等行业征收高额关税，直接重创其制造业，迫使加 拿大必须寻找新的增长点和贸易伙伴。中国作为世界第二大经济体，拥有超大规模市场，对加拿大而言 是首选的"新篮子"。加拿大阿尔伯塔省的石油和天然气、萨斯喀彻温省的钾肥和农产品，都可能需要中 国市场进行消化。 近日，加拿大总理卡尼在接受加拿大广播公司采访时，就界定加中新关系一事作出表态。他一方面承 认"不要把所有的鸡蛋放在（美国）一个篮子里"，强调需拓展与中国等非美市场的合作以减少对美依 赖；另一方面又提出在人工智能、关键矿物、国防等领域因"安全威胁"需对中国设置"护栏"。这种看似 矛盾的政策取向，实则折射出加拿大在当前国际环境下，在国家利益诉求与意识形态偏见之间存在的深 层矛盾。 对中国而言，加拿大是一个具有潜力的合作伙伴，双方在资源禀赋、经济结构、产业发展等方面具有互 补性。要实现中加合作的健康发展，加拿大需摒弃意识形态偏见，采取合理务 ...

顾客在浙江省湖州市德清县乾元镇一家金店挑选黄金首饰。 新华社发 □新华社记者 任军 陈云富 12月24日早盘，伦敦现货黄金再度走高，历史首次突破每盎司4500美元。 受国际市场带动，以人民币计价的黄金价格续创新高。24日，上海黄金交易所现货黄金价格盘中一度涨至每 克1017元，金饰报价在23日突破每克1400元关口后继续上扬，24日周大福等金店的足金饰品报价达每克1410 元。 值得注意的是，金价大涨带动不少资金关注黄金市场的替代投资品，叠加工业需求持续增加，白银、铂金、 钯金等贵金属价格纷纷"后来居上"，近期涨势远超黄金。 数据显示，今年四季度以来，国际银价一路上行，涨幅近50%，12月23日首次突破每盎司70美元的历史关 口，24日继续冲高至每盎司72美元上方，而国际铂金、钯金最近一个月的涨幅也都超过30%。 从年内涨幅来看，国际现货白银、铂金价格上涨均超过140%，钯金上涨超100%，国际现货黄金价格年内上 涨超70%。 "贵金属市场的强势表现超出不少机构预期。黄金价格今年40多次创历史新高，已超去年全年。白银价格持续 刷新纪录，铂金、钯金从下半年也开始补涨。"山东能源集团期现交易经理刘日成说。 贵金属 ...

2025.12. 24 本文字数：2393，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 黄思瑜 年末金属市场掀起涨价狂潮。12月24日，黄金、白银、铜、铂金等国内外价格均创出历史新高，国 内钯金期货主力合约涨停。 当日，伦敦金、银现货价格最高探至4525.83美元/盎司、72.701美元/盎司，沪金、沪银主力合约 价格最高涨至1022.88元/克、17671元/千克；国内铂金、钯金期货主力合约相继涨停，再度分别 创出新高675.65元/克、578.45元/克；铜价也创出历史新高，LME铜最高冲至12282美元/吨，沪 铜期货主力合约最高价为96750元/吨。此外，镍的价格也在近期大涨。 南华期货高级总监傅小燕对第一财经称，此轮金属市场价格上涨是在降息周期大背景下，叠加了地缘 政治、产业周期的扰动，资金逐利共同推动的。国信期货首席分析师顾冯达也称，2025年金属板块 的强势表现源于宏观金融政策与供需结构性变化形成利多共振，金融市场多头资金顺势助推，板块轮 动效应下，各金属品种轮番上涨并扩大涨势。 对于后市行情的预判，中信建投期货贵金属首席分析师王彦青认为，作为美元信用价值的良好对冲工 具，金银等贵金属回调风险较小， ...

摩 根 大 通 在 其 2026 年 黄 金 市 场 展 望 报 告 中 认 为 ， 由 于 驱 动 因 素 依 然 强 劲 ， 黄 金 市 场 在 2 0 26年或将延续上涨势头。市场分析人士预计，2026年白银需求也将继续增长。 国际金价再创新高，年内涨幅超70% 。 受地缘政治紧张局势加剧、市场供需紧张及避险需求推动，国际市场黄金期货和现货价格 2 3日均创历史新高。今年以来，国际金价累计涨幅已超过70%。 当天，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价上涨46.3美元，收 于每盎司4 505 .7美元；2026年3月白银期价上涨2.572美元，收于每盎司7 1 . 1 3 7美元，也 创下历史新高。 伦敦现货黄金价格当天也突破每盎司4 5 0 0美元关口，同为贵金属的铂金现货价格当天涨 幅超6%，突破每盎司2 3 0 0美元，均创历史新高。 分析人士指出，美国与委内瑞拉关系紧张导致的地缘政治压力，以及美元指数持续走低， 给以美元计价的贵金属期货价格带来一定支撑。 数据显示，美元指数今年以来累计下跌接近10%，或将面临2 0 0 3年以来最差表现。 来源： 新华社 End 欢迎分享给 ...

（原标题：金银铂钯齐涨 贵金属缘何连创新高？） 12月24日早盘，伦敦现货黄金再度走高，历史首次突破每盎司4500美元。 贵金属缘何"牛气冲天"？业内人士普遍认为，金银铂钯的大幅上涨已不是由单一的避险和抗通胀等传统 因素推动，而是美元信用、市场情绪等多重因素"共振"的结果。 "2025年，影响黄金市场的最大因素可能还是投资者对美元信用和美国主权债务的担忧。"在世界黄金协 会中国区CEO王立新看来，这是驱动全球央行、机构和个人投资者涌入黄金市场的底层因素。 "美元债务的大幅扩张推动黄金等贵金属成为投资者眼中更安全的资产，其价格也'水涨船高'。"上海息 壤实业黄金圈首席分析师蒋舒表示，美联储降息预期提升、地缘政治持续紧张等因素也对金价构成支 撑。 为何今年以来白银、铂金等品种的涨幅更大？业内人士分析称，从需求侧来看，上述贵金属的工业需求 持续增加，支撑其价格走牛。 世界白银协会的报告认为，受益于在导电和导热方面的卓越性能，白银正成为全球经济转型不可或缺的 关键金属之一。其中，光伏和电动汽车产业的快速发展，数据中心和人工智能领域的爆发式扩张，对白 银需求构成支撑。 铂金的前景同样被看好。在工业领域，铂金主要用于生产 ...