中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 降息周期开启，美国内部政策、地缘变化都将为黄金提供支撑。尽管黄金有卖现实 | | 黄金 ★★ | 长期持有 | 交易，但是中长期黄金支撑逻辑不变，降息周期开启，地缘重塑，央行买黄金，黄 | | | | 金战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 无论是美联储与白宫有分歧、对国内释放政策期待，宏观政策处于观察期。白银需 | | | 强势走高 | 求坚挺，供供需缺口明显，白银长期看多逻辑不变。但是白银弹性大，黄金等品种 | | ★★ | | 波动会白银盘面波动有冲击。短线等待企稳后做新的入场打算 | | | | 宏观和板块情绪修正，铜止跌企稳，反弹回 8 万关口，建议多单可止盈兑现，国庆 | | 铜 | 多单止盈 | 假期临近，长假避险情绪或发酵，准备空仓或轻仓过节。中长期，对铜依旧看好。 | | ★ | | | | 锌 | | 锌国内库存累库，需求疲软，短期震荡偏弱，跌破下方关口支撑，中长期看锌供增 | | ★ | 承压 | 需减，仍是板块空头配置。 | | 铅 | | 国内原生铅与再生铅企业检修增多，其 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper prices rose first and then fell. The main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 1.42%, closing at 79,910 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and global instability persists. Domestically, the consumption season is approaching, but downstream consumption willingness is average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is mediocre, mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory was 148,875 tons, with a slight decrease last week, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to the previous week [3]. - The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and face an oversupply in 2025 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 1.42%, closing at 79,910 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and global instability persists. Domestically, the consumption season is approaching, but downstream consumption willingness is average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is mediocre, mainly driven by rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 148,875 tons, with a slight decrease last week, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to the previous week [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 PMI - No specific content about PMI is provided in the report. 3.2.2 Supply - Demand Balance - The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and face an oversupply in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024 [10][13]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [14][18]. 3.3 Market Structure 3.3.1 Processing Fees - Processing fees are at a low level [21]. 3.3.2 CFTC Positions - There is an outflow of non - commercial net long positions in CFTC [23]. 3.3.3 Futures - Spot Price Spread - No specific content about the futures - spot price spread is provided in the report. 3.3.4 Import Profits - No specific content about import profits is provided in the report. 3.3.5 Warehouse Receipts - No specific content about warehouse receipts is provided in the report.

在凤凰湾区财经论坛2025前夕，上海交通大学上海高级金融学院实践教授胡捷表示，黄金价格主要受两 大因素影响：一是流动性，宽松周期对黄金利好；但更关键的是地缘政治因素，这也是直接催生黄金价 格上涨的原因。他对投资者发出提醒，黄金作为投资标的物缺乏基本面支撑，更多受市场情绪和流动性 驱动，因此波动极大——涨跌幅度常超50%甚至100%，投资风险其实非常高。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction of a Chinese autonomous international relations knowledge system is essential for understanding and responding to the changing international landscape, guided by Xi Jinping's diplomatic thoughts [1][2][7]. Group 1: Background and Importance - The need for a Chinese autonomous knowledge system arises from China's unique modernization practices and historical experiences, which differ significantly from Western theories [2][3]. - China's rise as the world's second-largest economy and its increasing international influence necessitate the establishment of a knowledge system that reflects its own diplomatic practices [2][3]. - The historical context of China's diplomatic experiences, including its long civilization history and painful encounters with imperialism, provides a rich foundation for theoretical development [3][4]. Group 2: Challenges in Construction - Scholars face challenges in avoiding the imposition of Western theories on Chinese practices, which can lead to a lack of originality in conceptual development [4][5]. - There is a need to recognize the differences between ancient and modern international relations contexts, as historical experiences may not fully explain contemporary dynamics [5][6]. Group 3: Significance of the Knowledge System - A Chinese autonomous international relations knowledge system can effectively explain China's diplomatic practices and provide a framework for the world to understand its policies [6][7]. - The system aims to counteract misinterpretations and distortions of China's international relations by offering a coherent theoretical basis [7][8]. Group 4: Characteristics of Contemporary Chinese Diplomacy - Contemporary Chinese diplomacy is characterized by its strategic autonomy, focusing on major power diplomacy, development diplomacy, and open diplomacy [17][18][19]. - Major power diplomacy emphasizes cooperation and mutual respect among global powers, influencing international order [17]. - Development diplomacy aims to assist developing countries, promoting a vision of shared growth and sustainable development [18]. - Open diplomacy reflects China's commitment to genuine multilateralism and active participation in global governance [19][23]. Group 5: Practical Steps for Knowledge System Construction - The construction of the knowledge system should involve reinterpreting traditional Chinese diplomatic wisdom and recognizing the layered structure of international relations [20][21]. - Emphasizing non-interventionism and respect for sovereignty is crucial in shaping China's diplomatic identity [21][22]. - The approach should highlight openness and inclusivity, aligning with China's historical and cultural values [23].

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission has proposed a significant change in the energy landscape by banning the import of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) starting January 1, 2027, reflecting a growing urgency for energy independence from Russia [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Implications - The EU currently pays between €500 million to €700 million monthly for Russian LNG imports, translating to an annual outflow of €6 billion to €8.4 billion, which is a crucial source of foreign exchange for Russia [3]. - The accelerated timeline for the ban, moved up by a year, indicates the EU's increasing urgency regarding energy independence [3]. Group 2: Strategic Considerations - The proposal aims to weaken Russia's financial capabilities, as energy export revenues are a significant part of the Russian federal budget, contributing hundreds of billions annually [12]. - The EU's decision is influenced by multiple factors, including pressure from the U.S. government to reduce reliance on Russian energy, which is viewed as a security risk [7]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - The proposal marks a fundamental shift in the EU's energy policy, as previous sanctions did not target natural gas due to the need for unanimous agreement among member states [15]. - Some EU member states, particularly landlocked ones, face significant challenges in transitioning away from Russian pipeline gas, necessitating substantial investment and time to develop alternative infrastructure [17]. Group 4: Implementation Challenges - The proposal must undergo a complex approval process to become legally binding, requiring specific majority support in the European Council and simple majority approval in the European Parliament [22]. - There are discussions among European Parliament members to include pipeline gas in the ban and to expedite the implementation timeline, indicating a growing resolve to eliminate dependence on Russian fossil fuels [24].

Group 1 - The article discusses the strategic maneuvers between the US, China, and Russia amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly focusing on the US's attempts to pressure China through tariffs and the unexpected overture from Russia towards the US [1][3]. - The US is pushing for a maximum 100% tariff on Chinese goods, aiming to deepen the rift between China and the EU, while leveraging EU support against China in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][3]. - China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasizes that the abuse of tariffs will harm all parties involved, indicating that economic sanctions will not resolve issues but may lead to greater losses [3][5]. Group 2 - Russia's unexpected willingness to discuss energy cooperation with the US, including the "Sakhalin-1" project, raises questions about its strategic intentions amidst the ongoing Ukraine conflict [3][5]. - The Russian economy is under pressure from Western sanctions and high interest rates, prompting a need for new economic partnerships, particularly with the US [3][5]. - From a geopolitical perspective, restoring energy cooperation with the US could provide Russia with more leverage in international negotiations, allowing it to navigate between major powers like China, India, and the US [5][6]. Group 3 - The US's dual approach of pressuring China while seeking energy collaboration with Russia highlights a contradiction in its foreign policy, particularly under the "America First" agenda [5][6]. - The article suggests that the US may be looking for a temporary solution to maintain its advantageous position in a volatile international market, potentially using cooperation with Russia to counterbalance China's influence [5][6]. - China is actively seeking to maximize its strategic interests in this complex geopolitical landscape, aiming to reduce energy costs and promote the internationalization of the Renminbi amidst the US-Russia dynamics [6][8]. Group 4 - The current international situation is characterized by intricate interactions among nations, with the US-China and US-Russia dynamics being a significant part of the broader geopolitical web [8]. - The article concludes that the ability to seize opportunities in this environment will determine which countries gain an advantage in future negotiations, emphasizing the importance of strategic decision-making [8].

沙特阿拉伯和巴基斯坦签署的一项协议，在国际上引起震动。 这两个国家，虽然地理距离较远，但在宗教思想、地缘政治、经济结构等方面，存在着先天的合作机 遇。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间17日，沙特阿拉伯与巴基斯坦签署了一项防御协议，协议规定任何对其中一 国的攻击将被视为对双方的攻击。 协议规定，对沙特阿拉伯或巴基斯坦的任何袭击都是对两国的袭击。此外，沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒 曼和巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹·谢里夫当天在利雅得举行会晤，讨论了加强两国在各个领域战略伙伴关系的 途径，并就地区和国际发展、共同关心的问题以及实现安全与稳定的努力交换了意见。 据报道，当被问及巴基斯坦是否有义务根据该协议向沙特提供核保护时，一位沙特高级官员表示："这 是一项涵盖所有军事手段的全面防御协议。" 两国军事关系有着深厚历史背景 巴基斯坦和沙特的军事关系，并非"心血来潮"，而是有着深厚的历史背景。 在宗教思想层面，沙特和巴基斯坦都奉行伊斯兰教逊尼派；在地缘政治层面，沙特和巴基斯坦都长期警 惕和关注伊朗的战略动态；在经济结构方面，巴基斯坦希望获得来自沙特的经济援助。 可以说，巴基斯坦和沙特之间的军事合作，早在历史上就建立起了非常扎实的基础。 在 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the fundamentals of asphalt showed signs of marginal improvement. The supply side saw flat week - on - week production and开工率, while the demand side had increased shipments and decreased factory and social inventories. However, as the peak - season demand nears its end, the fundamental improvement may not be sustainable, and the support for the futures market is weak. Crude oil has mixed influencing factors, with supply - surplus expectations suppressing prices and geopolitical factors providing intermittent support. In the short term, asphalt will show a wide - range oscillating trend under the combined influence of fundamentals and cost, and the crude oil fluctuations will dominate the market. It is recommended to track geopolitical developments and focus on the BU2511 contract in the range of 3350 - 3500 yuan/ton [7][65] Summary by Directory Report Summary - Market focuses include the Fed's 25 - BP interest rate cut, the basic framework consensus on resolving the TikTok issue between China and the US, and the suspension of Russia - Ukraine negotiations [6] - Key data: As of September 17, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise开工率 was 34.4%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous period. As of September 19, the domestic asphalt weekly production was 60.7 tons, down 0.1 tons from last week; the sample enterprise factory inventory was 65.3 tons, down 3.1 tons; the social inventory was 114.6 tons, down 3.4 tons [7] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt are inventory decline and raw - material disturbances; bearish factors are demand falling short of expectations and insufficient upward cost - side drivers [11] Macro Analysis - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 BP on September 18, from 4.25% - 4.50% to 4.00% - 4.25%, and is expected to cut twice more this year. Powell said the US labor market is weakening. After the rate - cut expectation is fulfilled, the market sentiment has recovered, but further economic data decline may suppress oil prices [12] - Russia - Ukraine negotiations have been suspended, and the US and Europe have threatened to impose tariffs on Russian oil buyers, which provides support for oil prices [13] Data Analysis - Supply: As of September 19, the domestic asphalt weekly production was 60.7 tons, down 0.1 tons from last week. The开工率 was 34.4% as of September 17, down 0.5 percentage points, with significant declines in East and Northeast China. The supply increase is expected to be limited due to unimproved refinery profits [14][24] - Demand: As of September 19, the domestic asphalt weekly shipments were 45.5 tons, up 5.8 tons. The modified asphalt weekly capacity utilization rate was 20.23%, up 1.71 percentage points, with significant increases in North China and Shandong [25][28] - Import: In July, domestic asphalt imports were 38.05 tons, up 0.48 tons month - on - month and 16.53% year - on - year. The cumulative imports from January to July were 210.55 tons, down 7.5% year - on - year [35] - Export: In July, domestic asphalt exports were 5.57 tons, up 2.62 tons month - on - month. The cumulative exports from January to July were 33.49 tons, up 46.45% year - on - year [38] - Inventory: As of September 19, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise factory inventory was 65.3 tons, down 3.1 tons, and the social inventory was 114.6 tons, down 3.4 tons [7] - Spread: As of September 19, the domestic asphalt processing dilution weekly profit was - 557.9 yuan/ton, down 66.2 yuan/ton. As of September 17, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 54.13, and as of September 18, the asphalt basis was 163 yuan/ton [63] 后市研判 - Asphalt is expected to continue a wide - range oscillating trend under the influence of fundamentals and cost. The demand improvement may not last as the peak season ends. Crude oil has mixed factors and lacks a clear direction. It is recommended to track geopolitical developments and focus on the BU2511 contract in the range of 3350 - 3500 yuan/ton [65]

格隆汇9月18日丨Hargreaves Lansdown高级股票分析师Matt Britzman表示："英伟达向英特尔投资50亿美 元，其核心不在于资金本身，而在于影响力的布局。对英特尔而言，这无论是在财务层面还是战略层 面，都是又一项值得欢迎的助力——它正依靠英伟达维持竞争力。但即便有美国政府与英伟达的支持， 对于其晶圆代工业务而言，这仍未达成'全垒打'(指彻底成功)：该业务目前仍难以吸引所需的核心客 户，而要与台积电的强大实力抗衡，核心客户的支持至关重要。对英伟达来说，这笔投资带来的财务影 响微乎其微，但政治层面的收益却十分显著：此举与美国政策方向一致。简而言之，这是一项带有地缘 政治意味的战略联盟，而非单纯的资产负债表层面的交易。" ...

Group 1 - The mixed messaging between the US and India is part of the negotiation process, aimed at stabilizing the relationship despite existing differences [1][4] - The US and India have maintained various cooperative efforts, including the 2+2 meetings and military exercises, indicating a commitment to their partnership [2][6] - India is recognized as a crucial partner for the US in technological competition against China, with a significant presence of global capability centers in India [3][9] Group 2 - The geopolitical and domestic political factors are increasingly influencing trade talks between the US and India, moving beyond purely economic considerations [8][10] - The US aims to reorder global supply chains due to concerns over manufacturing concentration in China, which holds 18% of global GDP and 32% of manufacturing value added [9][10] - The India-US trade agreement is viewed as balanced, contrasting with other US agreements that have been perceived as unilateral concessions [12]