1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Wait - and - see [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound under pressure, callback to go long [1] - Polysilicon: Low - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound, buy on dips [1] 2. Report's Core Views - Geopolitical factors such as the Iran situation and Trump's statements have a significant impact on the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The US dollar's weakening provides support for gold, while the uncertainty of the Iran situation makes it difficult to participate in the silver market in the short term. For non - ferrous metals, factors like supply - demand relationships, production capacity, and inventory changes influence price trends [1][3]. - The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged, with short - term support around 1120. Silver should pay attention to support around 20000. For copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lithium carbonate, there are corresponding long - term and short - term investment strategies based on market conditions [1][4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market performance**: SHFE gold fell 0.07% to 1140, COMEX gold fell 0.63% to 5149. SHFE silver rose 0.07% to 21547, COMEX silver rose 3.13% to 87. Spot gold fell 0.67% to 5137.24 dollars per ounce [2]. - **Basic logic**: Trump's statement about the end of the war led to a weakening of the US dollar, and the gold market has "triple shocks" but the four underlying logics for the long - term bull market remain unchanged. China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for 16 consecutive months [3][4]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Long - term holding for gold, wait - and - see for silver, pay attention to geopolitical situations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1][4] Copper - **Market performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 101160 yuan per ton, up 1.28%. LME copper was at 12922 dollars per ton, up 0.49%. COMEX copper was 590.05 dollars per pound, up 1.08% [5]. - **Industrial logic**: Global copper mine supply remains tight, copper concentrate processing fees are at a record low. Although inventory has increased significantly, the expected effective circulating inventory is tight, and the resource - security premium for copper is rising [6]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Buy on dips when there is a callback, industry buyers should purchase as needed, and sellers should wait for the price to rebound and sell at the upper resistance level. Bullish on the medium - to - long - term trend of copper [7] Zinc - **Market performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 24425 yuan per ton, up 0.41%. LME zinc was 3326.5 dollars per ton, up 0.11% [8]. - **Industrial logic**: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026, smelter profits are inverted, and the supply side is weakening month - on - month. The demand side is weak, and inventory is accumulating [9]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold long positions cautiously in the short term, buy on dips on medium - to - long - term callbacks. Pay attention to the demand situation and policy stimuli [10] Aluminum - **Market performance**: The closing price of LME aluminum was 3385.5 dollars per ton, down 1.33%. The Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24950 yuan per ton, up 0.95% [11]. - **Industrial logic**: The short - term supply disturbance in the Middle East continues, inventory is a major factor suppressing prices, and downstream processing enterprises are gradually resuming production. For alumina, the overseas bauxite supply is sufficient, and the industry's oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse fundamentally [13]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Go long on dips in the short term for Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory, and the main operating range is [23500 - 25500] [14] Nickel - **Market performance**: The closing price of LME nickel was 17444 dollars per ton, down 0.03%. The Shanghai nickel main contract was 136520 yuan per ton, down 0.45%. The stainless - steel main contract was 14105 yuan per ton, down 0.70% [15]. - **Industrial logic**: The expectation of tightening nickel ore supply is weakened, the domestic pure - nickel social inventory remains at a high level, and stainless - steel inventory has increased significantly, suppressing prices [17]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Go long on dips for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless - steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [130000 - 150000] [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market performance**: The main contract LC2605 opened low and went high, with an intraday amplitude of 15%, breaking through the 160,000 - yuan mark [19]. - **Industrial logic**: The supply - demand pattern remains tight, inventory has decreased for 7 consecutive weeks, and the cost of lithium carbonate will increase in the long term. Although the inventory - reduction rate has weakened recently, there is still a rigid support at the lower price [20]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Buy on dips in the range of [156000 - 170000] [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report On March 10, 2026, stock index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, crude oil futures to fluctuate weakly, and silver and tin futures to fluctuate strongly. Gold and copper futures are also expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro News and Trading Tips - In 2026, new highlights in national legislation include formulating state - owned assets law, amending enterprise bankruptcy law and tax collection management law. Also, financial law and financial stability law will be formulated, and the People's Bank of China Law and the Banking Supervision and Administration Law will be amended. Legislative research in areas such as artificial intelligence will be strengthened [3]. - Due to the Spring Festival holiday and the recovery of consumption demand, China's CPI in February 2026 rose 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years. The core CPI rose 1.8% year - on - year. Affected by international commodity prices, domestic demand growth, and macro - policies, the national PPI fell 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months [3]. - Foreign Minister Wang Yi had phone calls with foreign ministers of Kuwait and Bahrain, emphasizing the need to stop the war immediately [3]. - Spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated that China will take necessary measures to ensure its energy security [3]. - US President Trump said the war with Iran may end soon, which led to a sharp drop in US crude oil prices. The G7 finance ministers discussed the oil price surge but did not decide to release strategic oil reserves. Japan has prepared to release oil reserves [4][5]. - Russian President Putin and US President Trump had a phone call, focusing on the Middle - East situation related to Iran and the negotiation process in Ukraine [5]. - Energy price surges are reshaping European interest - rate trading. The eurozone's Sentix confidence index in March dropped 7.3 points to - 3.1 [6]. Commodity Futures - related Information - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted trading limits and fees for fuel oil futures, and the trading limits, price - limit ranges, and margin ratios for crude oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures [6]. - On March 9, most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with shipping, energy, and chemical products leading the gains. Base and precious metals mostly fell [6]. - On March 9, US crude oil futures fell 6.4%, and Brent crude oil futures fell 3.13%. International precious - metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold down 0.19% and COMEX silver up 3.60%. London base metals were mixed [7]. - The US is considering seizing Iran's Kharg Island. South Korea will implement an oil price cap system. Saudi Aramco is selling crude oil in the spot market. Qatar Energy postponed a project. Ghana will implement a new gold royalty system. Four Chinese - funded nickel plants in Indonesia suspended production [8][9]. - On March 9, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 202 points, and the US dollar index fell 0.24% [10][13]. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On March 9, major stock - index futures contracts such as IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 all opened lower, with varying degrees of decline. The A - share market also closed down, and the Hong Kong stock market was volatile with strong south - bound capital inflows [10][11][12][13]. - In March 2026, major continuous contracts of stock - index futures are expected to fluctuate weakly. On March 10, they are expected to fluctuate strongly, with specified support and resistance levels [13][14]. Gold Futures - On March 9, the gold futures contract AU2604 closed down 0.08%. In March 2026, the major continuous contract is expected to fluctuate in a wide range. On March 10, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, with resistance at 1162.0 and 1167.5 yuan/gram and support at 1132.0 and 1121.1 yuan/gram [30][31]. Silver Futures - On March 9, the silver futures contract AG2606 closed up 1.70%. In March 2026, the major continuous contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. On March 10, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, with resistance at 22584 and 22812 yuan/kilogram and support at 21369 and 21100 yuan/kilogram [33]. Copper Futures - On March 9, the copper futures contract CU2604 closed down 0.59%. In March 2026, the major continuous contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. On March 10, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, with resistance at 101700 and 102300 yuan/ton and support at 100000 and 99600 yuan/ton [37][38]. Tin Futures - On March 9, the tin futures contract SN2604 closed down 2.40%. In March 2026, the major continuous contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. On March 10, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, with resistance at 411900 and 407700 yuan/ton and support at 381100 and 375600 yuan/ton [43]. Crude Oil Futures - On March 9, the crude oil futures contract SC2604 closed up 16.99% at the daily limit. In March 2026, the major continuous contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. On March 10, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with resistance at 818 and 824 yuan/barrel and support at 668 and 620 yuan/barrel [47][48]. Fuel Oil Futures - On March 9, the fuel oil futures contract FU2605 closed up 16.98% at the daily limit. In March 2026, it is expected to fluctuate strongly and may hit a new high. On March 10, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a high probability of a significant pull - back after a rally [53]. Styrene Futures - On March 9, the styrene futures contract EB2604 closed up 8.99% at the daily limit. On March 10, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a high probability of a significant pull - back after a rally [58][59]. PTA Futures - On March 9, the PTA futures contract TA605 closed up 7.01% at the daily limit. In March 2026, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. On March 10, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a high probability of a significant pull - back after a rally [59][60]. PVC Futures - On March 9, the PVC futures contract V2605 closed up 5.99% at the daily limit. In March 2026, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. On March 10, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [65][66]. Methanol Futures - On March 9, the methanol futures contract MA605 closed up 11.99%. On March 10, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [69].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Nanjing Steel (600282 CH), Hebei Steel Resources (000923 CH), Baosteel (600019 CH), and CITIC Special Steel (000708 CH) with target prices of 7.70, 24.80, 8.15, and 19.29 respectively [4][35]. Core Insights - The global steel supply-demand balance is expected to improve, with a potential shift from surplus to shortage by 2029, driven by geopolitical factors and carbon reduction policies [5][6][9]. - China's steel production is projected to decrease, while demand stabilizes, particularly as the negative impact of real estate demand diminishes [5][19]. - The domestic steel industry is entering a recovery phase, supported by supply constraints and improving demand structures [7][8]. Summary by Sections Global Steel Supply-Demand Dynamics - By 2025, the global steel supply surplus is expected to narrow to 5.74%, with a significant shift in overseas demand dynamics [5][11]. - The global steel production is forecasted to decline slightly from 2026 to 2030, while demand is anticipated to grow, particularly in overseas markets [6][25]. Domestic Steel Market Outlook - China's steel demand is projected to stabilize, with real estate's share of demand dropping from 39.4% in 2020 to 13.2% by 2026 [19][22]. - The domestic steel supply is expected to continue its contraction trend, with a focus on low-carbon production methods [28][31]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the importance of leading steel companies that meet the new industry standards, which are likely to gain competitive advantages in terms of energy consumption and carbon emissions [8][29]. - The anticipated increase in electric arc furnace (EAF) steel production is expected to improve the supply-demand balance in the carbon material sector [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trading volume of the container shipping index (European line) was significantly affected by geopolitical news, showing a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term contracts. The 2604 - 2608 contracts closed up 14.6% - 20%, and the 2609 and far - term contracts closed up 10% - 12%. The impact of geopolitical events on the spot market of container shipping European lines can be divided into the emotional and supply - demand aspects. The overall strategy is to remain on the sidelines [10][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For EC2604, the closing price was 1,892.2, with a daily decline of 4.43%, trading volume of 85,170, open interest of 33,995, a change of - 2,684 in open interest, and a trading - to - open - interest ratio of 2.51 (compared to 4.19 the previous day). For EC2606, the closing price was 2,161.4, with a daily increase of 10.40%, trading volume of 17,081, open interest of 20,319, a change of 149 in open interest, and a trading - to - open - interest ratio of 0.84 (compared to 1.51 the previous day). Similar data is provided for EC2608 and EC2610 [1]. - **Freight Index**: The SCFIS for the European route was 1,463.40 points, with a weekly decline of 7.0%; for the US - West route, it was 1,045.08 points, with a weekly decline of 6.0%. The SCFI for the European route was $1,452/TEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 2.3%; for the US - West route, it was $1,940/FEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 4.5% [1]. - **Forward Freight Rates**: Different carriers such as Maersk, MSC, etc., offered different prices for shipping from Shanghai to Rotterdam. For example, Maersk's price for a 40'GP was $2,430 and for a 20'GP was $1,445 [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.95, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.91 [1]. 3.2 Shipping Capacity - **Scheduled Voyages and Adjustments**: In March, there were 11 blank sailings and 2 additional voyages; in April, there was 1 blank sailing, 3 undetermined voyages, and CMA added an OCR route. The weekly shipping capacity (in 10,000 TEU) from March 7 - April 26 showed fluctuations, and the monthly average weekly shipping capacity was also presented for different alliances [5]. - **Supply - Side Adjustments**: In the second half of March, COSCO transferred two ships from the Middle - East route to the Northwest - Europe AEU7 route. After the adjustment, the average weekly shipping capacity in the second half of March increased from 327,000 TEU to 338,000 TEU, a 31% increase compared to the first half of the month. The static shipping capacity in April was 322,000 TEU/week, with year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of 3%/10% [11]. 3.3 Macroeconomic News - Geopolitical events included discussions on cease - fire conditions by the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister, statements by US President Trump on the Iran issue, an explosion at a US military base in Bahrain, and military actions by the Israeli Defense Forces against Tehran [8][9][14]. 3.4 Market Analysis - **Demand Side**: Cargo volume is gradually recovering with resumption of work and production. There is no sign of large - scale missed bookings in the market. In the medium - to - long - term, if oil prices rise and remain high, potential downward risks may come from macro - negative feedback [10]. - **Supply Side**: The transfer of ships from the Middle - East route to the European line increased shipping capacity. If the risk of ship attacks in the Hormuz/Mandeb Strait remains high, it may lead to a global shortage of effective shipping capacity and potential congestion at Southeast Asian hub ports [11]. - **Freight Rates**: In the third week of March, some shipping companies raised freight rates, and the loading rate support was not strong. In April, shipping companies usually try to raise rates. If the war continues and the passage risk in the Hormuz/Mandeb Strait does not decrease, the probability of a successful rate increase may increase. Oil price increases also prompt shipping companies to levy emergency fuel surcharges [12]. 3.5 Investment Strategy - Short - term trading volume is greatly affected by geopolitical emotions. Pay attention to the progress of resumption of work and production, Maersk's cabin opening in the fourth week of March, and other shipping companies' follow - up on fuel surcharges. Be vigilant about the recurrence of geopolitical emotions. Overall, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the container shipping industry on the Europe route is bullish [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical factors continue to dominate the market trend. With the escalating situation in the Middle East, short - term international oil prices can be an anchor of concern for container shipping on the Europe route. After an obvious decline and then a rise in crude oil prices, container shipping is expected to still have an upward potential in the short term, with increased volatility risks. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations and strictly control risks [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, all container shipping routes to Europe rose, and both near - and far - month contracts hit the daily limit at one point. The EC2604 contract opened at the daily limit, then the limit was lifted, and it closed at the daily limit again [1] 3.2 Important Information - US President Trump said that the war between the US and Iran may soon end, and the war is almost over, causing a rapid drop in US oil prices [1] - G7 finance ministers held a phone call on Monday to discuss how to deal with the soaring oil prices caused by the war between the US, Israel and Iran. They basically reached a consensus not to release strategic oil reserves for the time being [1] - Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf said that if the current conflict further expands to the infrastructure level, international oil prices may remain at three - digit levels for a considerable period [1] - Saudi Arabia has started to cut oil production as its oil storage facilities are approaching saturation. Aramco is cutting production at two oil fields [1] - IMF Managing Director Georgieva said that the global economy is suffering from wave after wave of shocks. Oil and gas facilities are damaged and shut down, and energy security has become the primary concern [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On March 9, the SIFIS closed at 1545.46, a 5.6% increase from the previous period [1] - On March 6, the SCFI index closed at 1489.19, a week - on - week increase of 156.08 points [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Geopolitics continues to dominate the market trend. With the escalating situation in the Middle East, short - term international oil prices can be an anchor of concern for container shipping on the Europe route. After an obvious decline and then a rise in crude oil prices, container shipping is expected to still have an upward potential in the short term, with increased volatility risks. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations and strictly control risks [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and running weakly [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to run at a high level in the short term, with high - amplitude wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to macro - emotions [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises stopped production for maintenance from mid - to late January, and are expected to resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one stopped production on January 5th, most others will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20th, with a daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. Winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - The total installed capacity of metallurgical alumina in China is 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating total capacity is 85.08 million tons/year. The overall start - up rate of the alumina industry remains stable, with slight regional differentiation [2] - Newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China, Indonesia, and Angola are still ramping up production, but due to the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the production or shipment of some aluminum plants has been affected, and the daily output is expected to decrease [2] - After the Spring Festival, as downstream enterprises resume work, demand recovers, the aluminum - water ratio has increased significantly, and the weekly aluminum - water ratio has increased by about 8 percentage points [2] - The demand side shows an accelerating recovery trend after the festival. The start - up rate of downstream industries has further increased. The demand in sectors such as power grids, canning materials, automobiles, and batteries has recovered well, and the photovoltaic rush - installation demand also provides short - term support [2] - The weekly start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 2.5 percentage points to 59.5%, but due to high aluminum prices and uneven demand recovery, the performance of different sectors varies significantly [2] - On Monday, the inventory increased by 15,000 tons compared with last Thursday. The demand is still in the recovery stage. The ingot - casting volume of electrolytic aluminum in March is expected to remain high, and the short - term inventory accumulation trend of domestic aluminum ingots will continue [2] - The current Middle East geopolitical situation is the focus of global attention. The geopolitical conflict situation is changeable, and price volatility has increased. The price has a slight adjustment at a high level in the short term due to sentiment. It is expected to have high - amplitude wide - range fluctuations [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年3月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：特朗普称伊朗战事基本结束，美元回落，金价震荡；美国三大股指全线 收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率全线走低，10年期美债收益率跌 3.28个基点报4.096%；美元指数跌0.24%报98.72，离岸人民币对美元大幅升值报 6.8875；COMEX黄金期货跌0.19%报5148.70美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1140，现货1137.6，基差-2.4，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单104934千克，减少99千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线上方；中性 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of non - ferrous metals is affected by geopolitical factors and the change of risk sentiment, generally maintaining a volatile pattern [13][14]. - The future price of copper is expected to break upward with the recovery of the gold and silver market and the arrival of the consumption peak season [15][17]. - The zinc market is affected by geopolitical disturbances, and the price fluctuates under pressure, continuing the volatile trend [15][17]. - The aluminum industry chain shows a relatively strong and volatile trend, and it is recommended to adopt a cautious and bullish approach [17]. - The tin market is in a state of volatile consolidation, and it is recommended to wait and see [17]. - The lead market fluctuates in a range, and a high - selling and low - buying strategy can be adopted [18]. - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are in a stage of adjustment, and it is advisable to go long on dips [18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The situation in Iran dominates the sentiment of the capital market. The rise in oil prices and trade blockades increase inflation expectations, weaken the expectation of interest - rate cuts, and put pressure on non - ferrous metals. The impact depends on the duration of the situation. The performance of aluminum in the non - ferrous sector is relatively prominent, but it is also suppressed this week [13]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Variety** - **Copper**: The current fundamentals are weak in the short term. The price is mainly driven by macro logic and valuation restoration. It is recommended to go long on dips. The support range is 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton [15][17]. - **Zinc**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price fluctuates under pressure. It is recommended to use a strategy of alternating bull and bear spreads. The support range is 23,800 - 24,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 24,800 - 25,000 yuan/ton [15][17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: It shows a relatively strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or take a bullish approach. Different products in the industry chain have different support and pressure ranges [17]. - **Tin**: In a state of volatile consolidation, it is recommended to wait and see. The support range is 330,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 460,000 - 480,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Lead**: Fluctuates in a range, and a high - selling and low - buying strategy can be adopted. The support range is 16,400 - 16,600 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 17,000 - 17,200 yuan/ton [18]. - **Nickel and Stainless - steel**: In a stage of adjustment, it is advisable to go long on dips. The support and pressure ranges for nickel and stainless - steel are provided respectively [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are presented. For example, the closing price of copper is 100,190 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.85%; the closing price of zinc is 24,420 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.66% [20]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector is provided, including information on the strength of net long and short positions, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors for each variety [21]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 100,490 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.80%; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price is 24,340 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.83% [24]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain Graphs related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [26][30][33]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage Graphs related to arbitrage opportunities for each non - ferrous metal are provided, such as the change in the Shanghai - London ratio and the basis spread [63][65][66]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options Graphs related to options for each non - ferrous metal are provided, including historical volatility, implied volatility, and changes in trading volume and open interest [80][82][86].

文字早评 2026/03/10 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、养龙虾热度持续发酵，今天又有地方下场支持 openclaw，同时更多大厂推出 openclaw 一键部署； 2、伊朗警告警告美国和以色列停止"反人类行为"，油价或超 200 美元； 3、价值 1 亿美元的委内瑞拉黄金已运抵美国，据称"将用于工业和商业用途"； 4、宁德时代：2025 年营收 4237.02 亿元，同比增长 17.04%，净利 722.01 亿元，同比增长 42.28%；拟 分红超 300 亿。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：9.47%/6.60%/9.14%/6.94%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：4.05%/6.21%/12.84%/9.68%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：4.22%/7.76%/15.28%/11.36%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.53%/1.46%/2.03%/3.61%。 【策略观点】 近日在美伊冲突扰动全球风险偏好，油价持续上涨、美联储降息预期减弱，美债收益率快速攀升，国内 "两会"延续了适度宽松的货币、更积极的财政政策，建议关注战局转变，注意控制风险。 国债 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - International crude oil futures continue to oscillate at high levels, and the price trend depends on geopolitical factors. In the current situation, it will continue to oscillate strongly. Chemical products are expected to outperform crude oil in the later stage, especially aromatics with a high proportion of crude oil costs [2]. - The overall energy and chemical industry will continue the strong oscillation pattern led by crude oil [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical disturbances cause sharp price fluctuations, and the focus is on the development of the situation in the Middle East. - **Main Logic**: Trump's statement that the US - Iran war may end soon and the G7's plan to release strategic oil reserves led to significant intraday price fluctuations. Although concerns about the continuous obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz have weakened, the current export obstruction and production cuts in some countries mean that if a cease - fire is confirmed later, the oil price may fall further, but it is difficult to drop to the pre - conflict level in the short term. Before the situation becomes clear, the price is expected to oscillate strongly after a pullback [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly [8]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Asphalt profit is significantly compressed. - **Main Logic**: After the US - Iran conflict, the rise and fall of crude oil and asphalt prices, along with the change in asphalt - fuel oil spread and downstream negative feedback on high prices, have affected asphalt refinery profits. The supply - demand situation is weak, with inventory accumulation and low refinery start - up. The asphalt price is relatively undervalued compared to fuel oil and overvalued compared to rebar [9][10]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The absolute price of asphalt is in the overvalued range, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline [10]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors drive the continuous sharp rise in fuel oil futures prices. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran conflict, with the high import dependence and strong geopolitical attributes of fuel oil, has led to a sharp rise in prices. The tense situation in Iran affects fuel oil and natural gas supply expectations. The continuous decline in the asphalt - fuel oil spread also drives the rise in fuel oil prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the replacement of fuel oil power generation demand in the Middle East is a negative factor [10]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The expected increase in Venezuelan oil production exerts long - term pressure, and the short - term focus is on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [11]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: It follows the continuous strength of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: After the US - Iran conflict, it follows the rise of natural gas and crude oil. Although facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution, its low valuation and strong main - product attributes make the cracking spread strengthen during the rise of crude oil. The export tax rebate rate advantage and the transfer of the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals are also considered [12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. Affected by green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand, but with a low current valuation, it follows the fluctuation of crude oil [12]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The joint strategic petroleum reserve release plan cools the market, but the short - term supply shortage is difficult to alleviate. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation has not shown obvious signs of easing, and the shipping stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz deepens the market's panic about crude oil supply interruption. Although many countries plan to release reserves, the short - term situation is still difficult to ease. In addition, the unexpected shutdown of domestic PX plants has led to a short - term supply contraction and improved supply - demand margins [14][15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the PX price will oscillate strongly under the resonance of cost support and market sentiment. The mid - term logic of buying on dips remains, the PX 05 - 09 spread is expected to be positively arbitraged on dips, and the PXN is expected to be broadly sorted within [250, 330] US dollars/ton [15]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: The futures price follows the cost limit - up, the spot price follows up smoothly, and the basis remains strong. - **Main Logic**: The continuous fermentation of the geopolitical situation over the weekend and the sharp rise in crude oil prices on Monday led to the limit - up of PTA futures. The spot price increase followed well, and the market's concern about raw material risks forced PTA plants to reduce or stop production. In the short term, it is expected to follow the cost fluctuation, and the spot processing fee is under pressure [16]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to maintain a strong oscillation trend in the short term. The TA05 - 09 spread is expected to maintain the positive arbitrage logic in the short term, and the support for the TA price has increased. Short - term top - fishing attempts are not recommended [16]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: Driven by crude oil and commodity sentiment, it oscillates strongly. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts push up oil prices, which not only increase the cost of aromatics but also affect production due to raw material limitations. On the supply side, some enterprises reduce production due to concerns about rising raw material prices or shortages. On the demand side, the expectation of price increases leads to active buying by downstream enterprises and improved downstream profits [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. The strong oscillation of crude oil prices and enterprise production cuts may increase future inventory reduction efforts [18]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Affected by concentrated plant maintenance and production cuts and crude oil fluctuations, it oscillates strongly. - **Main Logic**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict pushes up oil prices, affecting the cost and production of aromatics. Multiple plants plan maintenance or reduce production, and the production cost of ethylene, another raw material, has increased, with some plants having the expectation of production cuts or maintenance. On the demand side, the shortage of overseas styrene due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz increases China's styrene exports, and downstream and terminal enterprises actively buy goods, with improved profits and strong market sentiment [19]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. With the strong oscillation of crude oil prices, styrene exports and many plant maintenance and production cuts, inventory reduction may resume in March [19]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The restart of idle capacity and the postponement of maintenance plans hinder the upward movement of the ethylene glycol market at high levels. - **Main Logic**: The escalation of the Middle East situation and overseas logistics obstacles lead to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, driving up the price of ethylene glycol. However, the restart of some coal - chemical plants and the postponement of maintenance plans fill the supply gap to a certain extent. In the short term, it follows the cost and market sentiment. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, it may remain strong [20][21]. - **Outlook**: The price oscillates in the short term. For the medium - term, buy on dips. In the short term, maintain a wait - and - see attitude and operate cautiously. Pay attention to reducing positions on rallies in the short - term EG05 - 09 spread [21]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is much higher than the futures price, and the market still has a fear - of - high - price sentiment. - **Main Logic**: The sharp rise in international oil prices drives up the price of polyester raw materials and short - fiber prices. The current large gap between spot and futures prices leads to a fear - of - high - price sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in the external market and cost fluctuations [22]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber price follows the upstream market and maintains a strong oscillation trend in the short term. The processing fee has certain support at the bottom, and the short - term price volatility is large. Operate cautiously [22]. Polyester Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, it is guided by upstream costs, and volatility increases. - **Main Logic**: The rise in crude oil and upstream raw material prices drives up the price of polyester bottle chips. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the trading center has risen significantly. In the short term, the price trend is expected to follow the upstream cost [24]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price follows the raw material fluctuation, the support for the processing fee at the bottom is enhanced, and the position of going long PR and short TA can be temporarily closed [26]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and methanol oscillates within a range. - **Main Logic**: On March 9, 2026, the methanol futures price rose significantly. The domestic production area's auction price was at a relatively high level, and the inventory situation showed an increase in production enterprise inventory and a slight decrease in port inventory. The geopolitical conflict led to a commodity premium market, and the expectation of a shortage of methanol imports due to the restricted passage of the Strait of Hormuz supported the trading logic [28]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The situation in Iran is severe, and the market tends to trade on geopolitical premiums, which are difficult to disappear in the short term. After the price reaches a high level, it is dragged down by weak fundamentals but still has upward space, showing a range - bound oscillation [29]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Driven significantly by sentiment, urea oscillates at a high level after rising. - **Main Logic**: On March 9, 2026, urea prices rose strongly. The supply side has a high and stable daily output, while the demand side has a weakening agricultural top - dressing demand and only compound fertilizers provide rigid industrial demand. The inventory of production enterprises has decreased. The spot price is restricted by the guidance price, but the futures price rises strongly driven by the rise in international energy prices and the influx of funds, driving the spot price to rise steadily [29][30]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The current fundamentals are relatively stable. The supply remains high, and the agricultural demand support weakens, while industrial demand recovers moderately. The spot price is restricted by policies, and after the futures price rises significantly driven by sentiment, the market is in a wait - and - see state, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [30]. LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: The PE spot price jumps, but the trading volume is limited. - **Main Logic**: The rise in oil prices is affected by the geopolitical situation. The import of PE may decrease if the Strait of Hormuz is continuously affected. The sentiment in the energy and chemical market is strong, driving the price of plastic. The spot price jumps, and the basis strengthens significantly, but the trading volume shrinks [32]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate in the short term [32]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The rise in oil prices drives up the PP spot price, but the trading volume is limited. - **Main Logic**: Similar to LLDPE, the rise in oil prices is affected by geopolitics. The direct impact on PP imports from the Middle East is limited. The refinery profit of PP is still under pressure, providing support for the price. The spot price rises significantly, and the basis strengthens, but the downstream trading volume decreases significantly [33]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate in the short term [34]. PL - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by the raw material end, PL rises. - **Main Logic**: On March 9, PL strengthened significantly, boosted by propane and methanol. The geopolitical situation is favorable, but the enthusiasm of buyers is limited, and the trading volume at high prices is relatively small. The powder profit is compressed again, and the acceptance of downstream factories is limited [34]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate in the short term [34]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and PVC shows a cautious and optimistic attitude. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts increase the cost support and supply disturbance expectations in the energy and chemical industry. Overseas production cuts have improved PVC exports and are expected to reduce inventory. Domestically, the chlor - alkali production is high, and the spring maintenance plan is less than in previous years. The downstream start - up has improved, and the export orders have increased. The supply shortage of raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha has pushed up the cost of ethylene - based PVC [35]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. Geopolitical disturbances increase the risk of chlor - alkali production cuts, making PVC optimistic. If the geopolitical conflict eases or a large amount of crude oil reserves are released, the optimistic sentiment may cool down [35]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price has limited follow - up ability, and caustic soda oscillates temporarily. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts increase the cost support and supply reduction expectations in the energy and chemical industry. Overseas production cuts have improved caustic soda exports and are expected to reduce inventory. The alumina and electrolytic aluminum industries are approaching production capacity matching, and the demand for caustic soda in some regions has changed. The export orders have improved, but the sustainability needs to be observed [36]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. Geopolitical disturbances increase the risk of chlor - alkali production cuts, and the improvement in caustic soda exports drives the spot price to rebound. The sustainability of exports needs to be observed. If the geopolitical conflict eases or a large amount of crude oil reserves are released, the optimistic sentiment may cool down [36]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., including the latest values and their changes, with different units for different varieties [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, basis changes, and warehouse receipt information of multiple varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc., with corresponding units for each variety [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of different categories such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., are presented, including the latest values and their changes [40]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report lists the monitoring of various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., but specific details are not fully presented in the text. The main idea may be to monitor the basis and spread changes of these chemical products to provide references for market analysis and trading decisions.