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广发期货《农产品》日报-20251125
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 02:18
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil futures may face further downward pressure, and Dalian palm oil futures are likely to continue to weaken. [1] - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil is in a rebound after over - selling, and domestic soybean oil is supported by high import costs but has a pattern of sufficient supply and weak demand. [1] Meal - U.S. soybeans face supply - demand pressure, and South American new - crop soybeans have good planting progress, so the supply pressure continues to be released. Domestic meal prices are expected to oscillate widely. [2] Corn - Corn prices are affected by the rhythm of supply. In the short - term, the futures market is strong, but subsequent selling pressure may limit the gains. [5] Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening structure. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held. [10] Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are expected to oscillate around 14 cents per pound. Domestic sugar prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening pattern this week. [13] Cotton - Globally, the cotton supply is loose. Domestically, cotton prices may oscillate in a range in the short - term. [14] Eggs - Egg prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at the previous low. [17] Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with November 21, soybean oil's spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 8490 yuan, the futures price (Y2601) decreased by 22 yuan to 8168 yuan, and the basis increased by 42 yuan to 322 yuan. Palm oil's spot price in Guangdong decreased by 40 yuan to 8430 yuan, the futures price (P2601) decreased by 64 yuan to 8486 yuan, and the basis increased by 24 yuan to - 56 yuan. Rapeseed oil's spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 10190 yuan, the futures price (OI601) decreased by 38 yuan to 9778 yuan, and the basis increased by 58 yuan to 412 yuan. [1] Meal - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, soybean meal's spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3000 yuan, the futures price (M2601) decreased by 1 yuan to 3011 yuan, and the basis increased by 1 yuan to - 11 yuan. Rapeseed meal's spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 2440 yuan, the futures price (RM2601) increased by 12 yuan to 2446 yuan, and the basis increased by 5 yuan to - 6 yuan. [2] Corn - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of corn 2601 increased by 25 yuan to 2220 yuan, the basis increased by 5 yuan to 30 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 13 yuan to - 44 yuan. [5] Live Pigs - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of live pigs 2605 increased by 65 yuan to 11925 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 15 yuan to - 525 yuan. The spot price in Henan decreased by 150 yuan to 11550 yuan. [10] Sugar - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 17 yuan to 5370 yuan, the Nanning spot price decreased by 30 yuan to 5450 yuan, and the Nanning basis decreased by 47 yuan to 131 yuan. [13] Cotton - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of cotton 2605 increased by 82 yuan to 13530 yuan, the 5 - 1 spread increased by 40 yuan to - 50 yuan, and the Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 3 yuan to 14574 yuan. [14] Eggs - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the price of the egg 12 - contract increased by 16 yuan to 2950 yuan per 500KG, the egg - producing area price decreased by 0.07 yuan to 2.84 yuan per catty, and the basis increased by 43 yuan to - 302 yuan per 500KG. [17]
螺纹钢、铁矿石周报:淡季需求特征尚未显现,螺矿延续偏强整理-20251124
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 07:42
财达期货|螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 财达期货|螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 2025-11-24 淡季需求特征尚未显现,螺矿延续偏强整理 【螺纹钢】 研究员 Z0017173 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 9 页 姓名:薛国鹏 F3073406 期货方面:本周螺纹 01 合约在空头主力减仓驱动下维持偏强整理走势。截 止周五,螺纹 01 合约收于 3057 元/吨,环比上周上涨 4 元,周 涨幅 0.13%。 从 业 资 格 号 : 现货方面:本周螺纹主流地区价格继续小幅上调,整体成交一般。截止周 五,全国螺纹平均报价上调 26 元至 3268 元/吨;其中上海地区 螺纹价格上调 30 元至 3220 元/吨;杭州地区螺纹价格上调 10 元至 3250 元/吨;北京地区螺纹价格上调 30 元至 3220 元/吨; 天津地区螺纹价格维持不变 3210 元/吨;广州地区螺纹价格上 调 70 元至 3400 元/吨。 投 资 咨 询 号 : 基 本 面:供给方面:全国 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 82.19%,环比减少 0.62%, 同比增加 0.26%;高炉炼铁产能利用率 88.58%,环比减少 0.22%, ...
铝:关注下方支撑,氧化铝:基本面压力仍在,铸造铝合金:跟随电解铝
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 05:56
2025 年 11 月 24 日 铝:关注下方支撑 氧化铝:基本面压力仍在 铸造铝合金:跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源(联系人) 期货从业资格号:F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T-22 | | | | | 11 | T-1 | T-5 | | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | | | | 21340 | -190 | -500 | 430 | 830 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | | | | 21390 | ー | l | ー | l | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | | | | 2807 | 0 | -52 | 62 | 244 | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | | | | | 267742 | 97899 | -30434 | 185640 | 122442 | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | | | | | 3020 ...
20251124申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃(LL&PP)-20251124
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures are trading at low levels. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP are stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins is low, and the market may continue to fluctuate at low levels in the future [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6770, 6831, and 6877 respectively, with price drops of -65, -52, and -46 and declines of -0.95%, -0.76%, and -0.66%. The trading volumes were 244504, 77484, and 923, and the open interests were 512746, 150752, and 2559, with changes of -3991, 11818, and 268. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were -61, -46, and 107 [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6357, 6474, and 6517 respectively, with price drops of -43, -39, and -29 and declines of -0.67%, -0.60%, and -0.44%. The trading volumes were 233476, 43286, and 1299, and the open interests were 626835, 161953, and 9867, with changes of 8880, 239, and 131. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were -117, -43, and 160 [2] Raw Material and Spot Market - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, and North China powder were 2021 yuan/ton, 5940 yuan/ton, 554 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, and 6180 yuan/ton respectively, with the price of agricultural film at 8700 yuan/ton [2] - **Midstream Spot**: The current prices of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6900 - 7350, 6800 - 7050, and 7000 - 7400 respectively. The current prices of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6250 - 6450, 6200 - 6450, and 6400 - 6550 respectively [2] News - On Friday (November 21), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.06 per barrel, down $0.94 or 1.59% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.38 - $58.80. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.56 per barrel, down $0.82 or 1.29% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.87 - $63.10 [2]
广发期货期现日报-20251121
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 05:56
| 业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 | 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年11月21日 | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | | | | | | | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | 11月20日 | 11月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | 品种 | | | | | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9550 | 9450 | 100 | 1.06% | 墓差 (通室S15530章准) | 475 | 60 | 415 | 691.67% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9750 | 9800 | 50 | 0.51% | 元/吨 | 基差 (Sl4210基准) | -75 | -440 | 82.95% | 365 | | 新疆99硅 | 9000 | 8850 | 1.69% | 120 | 基差(新疆) | 725 | 260 | 465 | 178.85% | | | 月间价差 | 合约 | ...
工业硅、多晶硅日报-20251121
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 05:02
工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报(2025 年 11 月 21 日) 二、日度数据监测 | | 二、日度数据监测 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 分 | 项 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 涨 跌 | | | | | 工业硅 | | | | | 期货结算价(元/吨) | 主力 | 9390 | 9075 | -315 | | | | 近月 | 9390 | 9080 | -310 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(华东) | 9350 | 9350 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(黄埔港) | 9350 | 9350 | 0 | | | 不通氧553#现货价格 | 不通氧553#硅(天津港) | 9250 | 9300 | 50 | | | (元/吨) | 不通氧553#硅(昆明) | 9350 | 9350 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(四川) | 9050 | 9050 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(上海) | 9650 | 9700 | 50 | | | | 通氧553#硅(华 ...
FICC日报:盘面走势震荡-20251121
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 02:42
FICC日报 | 2025-11-21 地缘端:以色列国防部长:必须摧毁哈马斯在加沙的地道网络,以色列军队正在不间断地工作以完成这项任务。 动态供给:动态供给:11月份剩余3周周均运力27.58万TEU,WEEK47/48/49周运力分别为27.87/26.9/27.96万TEU。 12月份月度周均运力31.3万TEU,WEEK50/51/52/53周运力分别为33.3/27/31.42/33.47万TEU。11月份共计10个空 班和1个TBN(其中MSC/PA联盟4个空班,双子星联盟1个空班,OA联盟5个空班,OA联盟的1个TBN后续预计均 转为空班)。12月份共计4个TBN和1个空班(OA联盟3个TBN,MSC/PA联盟1个TBN,MSC/PA联盟1个空班)。 12月合约:12月合约交易更多关注节奏问题,预期和现实交相辉映,估值逐步清晰,关注12月份挺价落地成色。四 季度船司需要为下一年长协谈判做准备,为了保证来年收入基本盘稳固,船司会通过供应端调节使得运价处于较 高位置。节奏方面,12月合约节奏预计首先交易涨价预期(10月中旬左右宣布11月份涨价函,10月底有部分船司 再度发布11月下半月涨价函),然后 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:能源化工-20251121
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 01:23
Report Information - Report date: November 21, 2025 [1][4][13][14][19][22][25][35][39][43][48][53][57][63][67][69][72][80][83][85] - Report title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Energy and Chemicals [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including trends such as supply - demand changes, price fluctuations, and trading strategies for each commodity [2][4][10][11][12] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply is expected to be tight, with a rising unilateral price. Suggest 5 - 9 month - spread positive arbitrage, long PX and short PTA/PF/PR, and long PX and short pure benzene for hedging. The terminal polyester demand is weakening marginally [10][11] - **PTA**: The upside space may be limited, do not chase high. Cost provides support, and the month - spread view is revised to positive arbitrage [11] - **MEG**: The medium - term trend is weak. Short at high prices and maintain reverse arbitrage for month - spreads. Supply is expected to increase, and there is an oversupply situation in December [12] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is in a volatile state. The supply side provides support, but the demand side from tire factories is weak, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally [13][14][17][18] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in a volatile state. Short - term prices are supported by the rubber sector, but the medium - term fundamentals of butadiene are under pressure [19][20][21] Asphalt - It follows the weak trend of crude oil. The production has decreased this week, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [22][34] LLDPE - Agricultural demand may be reaching its peak. Pay attention to supply pressure. The raw material cost is under pressure, and the downstream demand is supported by rigid needs, but the mid - and downstream inventory - holding willingness has weakened [35][36] PP - Do not short in the short term, but the medium - term trend is still under pressure. The supply is high, and the demand peak has passed. Low profits limit the downward space [39][40] Caustic Soda - The trend is still under pressure. High production and high inventory continue, and the demand side has limited support. The cost support is weak, and the long - term negative feedback from alumina production cuts may occur [43][45] Pulp - It is in a volatile state. The price fluctuation is affected by factors such as futures stability, weak demand, and high inventory [48][50][52] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The market trading atmosphere is general, and the price has been adjusted downward in some regions [53][54] Methanol - It is in a weakly volatile state with a narrowing downward space. The supply is high, the demand from the MTO industry is under pressure, and the cost - side pricing logic weight increases slightly [57][60][62] Urea - It is expected to be volatile with support in the short term. The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the fourth - batch export quota and mid - stream replenishment may relieve the pressure [63][65][66] Styrene - It is in a short - term volatile state. The short - term aromatic hydrocarbon blending oil logic continues, and the pure benzene market has a weak chemical reality and a strong blending oil expectation [67][68] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The enterprise production is stable, and the downstream demand is based on low - price rigid needs [69][70] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [72] - **Propylene**: The spot trend is strong, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom [72] PVC - Do not short at low levels. It is in a low - level volatile state. The futures price is at a historical low, and some devices may cut production. However, the high - production and high - inventory situation is difficult to change in the short term [80][81] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It has strengthened in the short term, with a continuous rebound at night [83] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weak trend continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has slightly decreased [83] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in a volatile state [85] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a short - term volatile state [31] - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a short - term volatile state, and the processing fee is compressed [31] Offset Printing Paper - It is in a low - level volatile state [32] Pure Benzene - It is mainly volatile in the short term. The overseas blending oil market is starting, and the chemical fundamentals are weak [34][68]
铁矿石期货日报-20251119
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 13:31
Report Overview - Research Variety: Iron ore - Report Cycle: Daily - Date of Report: November 17, 2025 - Research Analyst: Feng Jiayu [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On November 17, 2025, the iron ore futures market had prices rising in an upward - trending oscillation. The price increase was driven by rising macro - policy expectations and short - term demand recovery. However, the fundamental situation of iron ore has not fundamentally improved, and the market is in a structural game. Short - term prices are supported by policy expectations and a phased increase in demand, while medium - to long - term prices face pressure from a continuous supply surplus, shrinking steel mill profits, and high port inventories. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 750 - 820 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include policy signals from important meetings, the sustainability of the increase in steel mill hot - metal production, and the process of port inventory reduction [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market Conditions - On November 17, 2025, the iron ore i2601 contract showed an upward - trending oscillation. The lowest point was 767.5, the highest was 791, and it closed at 788.5, with a 1.81% increase. The trading volume was 351,300 lots, an increase of 84,900 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest was 481,400 lots, an increase of 1,019 lots from the previous day [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Prices - The 12 iron ore futures contracts showed a backwardation market pattern with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones. All contracts generally rose, with the increase ranging from 3.5 to 14 points. The total open interest of the variety was 907,493 lots, an increase of 6,657 lots compared to the previous trading day. The i2605 contract had the largest increase in open interest, with an increase of 4,639 lots [5]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - In the past 5 trading days, the basis of the main iron ore i2601 contract fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 45.9 yuan/ton, a minimum of 39 yuan/ton, and 39 yuan/ton on the reporting day [8]. 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - In the past 5 trading days, the registered warehouse receipts fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 900 lots, a minimum of 800 lots, and 900 lots on the reporting day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Demand Side - The steel mill hot - metal production increased slightly to 236,880 tons per day on a month - on - month basis. However, steel mill profits continued to deteriorate, the number of maintenance plans increased, the blast furnace operating rate decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the hot - metal production may decline in a step - by - step manner in the future [9]. 3.3.2 Macroeconomic Environment - Hawkish remarks from Fed officials suppressed the risk appetite for commodities. In China, the year - on - year decline in real estate investment widened, the growth rate of infrastructure investment slowed down, and terminal demand weakened seasonally [10].
甲醇数据日报-20251119
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 06:27
01-23 11下 2000-2010 01-17~15 | | | 投资询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【了C国贸期货 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 甲醇数据日报 | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 投资咨询号: Z0021177 | 卢钊毅 | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/11/19 | | | | 数据来源:钢联 | | | | | | | 를 | | 内蒙古北线 陕西关中 新疆(疆外) 山东临沂 太仓 | | | | | 河南 | | 现 点 | 现值 | 2002 1570 | 1968 | 1905 | | 2140 | 2015 | | 货 区 | 前值 | 2012 1620 | 1960 | 1905 | | 2140 | 2020 | | 域 | 涨幅 | (10) (50) | 8 | 0 | | 0 | (5) | | 期 号 | | MA2601 MA2605 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 2029 ...