Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - L2509 oscillated weakly and closed at 7,222 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week's output decreased by 5.41% month-on-month to 610,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 4.55% month-on-month to 79.52%. On the demand side, the average operating rate of downstream products last week increased by 0.57% month-on-month. In terms of inventory, the production enterprise inventory decreased by 8.27% month-on-month to 527,800 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 1.15% month-on-month to 610,600 tons. In May, the PE industry had centralized maintenance. This week, the Zhejiang Petrochemical and Zhenhai Refining & Chemical plants were shut down, while the Maoming Petrochemical and Yanchang Zhongmei plants restarted, with production and capacity utilization expected to decline slightly. The downstream shed film and mulch film were in the off - season; packaging film orders increased significantly due to tariff reduction; PE pipe demand was mainly for terminal rigid needs. In terms of cost, the stalemate in the US - Iran nuclear negotiations offset the negative impact of Moody's downgrading of the US sovereign credit rating, and international oil prices rose slightly. In the short term, L2509 is expected to oscillate, with support around 7,160 yuan/ton and resistance around 7,340 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 7,222 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 7,155 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 7,135 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 7,222 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The trading volume was 314,792 lots, down 6,743 lots; the open interest was 511,907 lots, down 2,179 lots. The spread between the January and May contracts was 20 yuan, up 178 yuan. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 375,228 lots, down 5,551 lots; the short position was 417,811 lots, down 7,821 lots; the net long position was - 42,583 lots, up 2,270 lots [2] 现货市场 - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,413.91 yuan/ton, down 20.87 yuan; in East China, it was 7,553.41 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis was 191.91 yuan, down 4.87 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 61.55 US dollars/barrel, down 0.02 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 569.38 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 871 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 781 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 产业情况 - The national operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants was 79.52%, down 4.55 percentage points [2] 下游情况 - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 48.7%, up 1.11 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 32.17%, unchanged; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 16.68%, down 2.76 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 14.81%, up 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.57%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 13.04%, down 0.38 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 13.05%, down 0.34 percentage points [2] Industry News - From May 9th to 15th, China's polyethylene production was 610,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.41%; the capacity utilization rate was 79.52%, a decrease of 4.55 percentage points from the previous period. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products from May 9th to 15th increased by 0.57% compared with the previous period. As of May 16th, the inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses was 610,600 tons, a decrease of 1.15% from the previous period; as of May 14th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprise samples was 527,800 tons, a decrease of 8.27% from the previous period [2]

免责声明 继续牵制市场价格。菜油市场呈现短期供应宽松但长期不确定性较大。盘面来看，受棕榈油走强提振，菜油震荡收涨，总体仍维持 区间震荡，短线参与为主。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 菜籽系产业日报 2025-05-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9395 | 34 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2510 | 1 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 195 | -18 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 208 | 0 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 316509 | 23580 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 623440 | 9329 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 41370 | 6808 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -40947 | 39 ...

白糖产业期现日报 テ「发期货 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月20日 刘珂 Z0016336 指标 现值 涨跌幅 单位 前值 涨跌 白糖2601 5718 5723 -5 -0.09% 元/吨 5853 白糖2509 5855 -2 -0.03% -135 -132 -3 -2.27% 白糖1-9价差 元/吨 主力合约持仓量 299940 301174 -1234 -0.41% 手 32836 32580 256 0.79% 仓单数量 张 有效预报 91 350 -259 -74.00% 现货市场价格 涨跌幅 单位 指标 现值 前值 涨跌 南宁 6145 6145 0 0.00% 昆明 5985 5985 0 0.00% 南宁县差 292 290 2 0.69% 昆明基差 132 130 2 1.54% 元/吨 进口糖:巴西(配额内) 4875 4954 -79 -1.59% 进口糖:巴西 (配额外) 6206 6309 -103 -1.63% -1270 #口巴西(配额内)与南宁价差 -1191 -79 -6.63% 进口巴西（配额外）与南宁价差 -103 -62.80% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil futures are expected to continue their downward trend, with a long - term bearish view. The first target for the decline is around 3,500 ringgit. In the domestic market, palm oil has fallen below 8,000 yuan and may seek support in the 7,900 - 8,000 yuan range. - For soybeans, concerns about the US renewable diesel quota policy (RVO) have led to a market decline. If there is no new news on the biodiesel policy, the July contract will fluctuate around the daily mid - track at 48.9 cents, and may fall to 46 cents later. In the domestic market, soybean oil supply is increasing, and the spot basis price is expected to decline [1]. Sugar Industry - Although the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in the second half of April, the 25/26 sugar - cane season still has a promising harvest. Short - term raw sugar is expected to oscillate between 17 - 20 cents per pound. The domestic sugar supply is abundant, and sales are strong. The market focus is on future import rhythms, and sugar prices are expected to be weak and volatile [3]. Cotton Industry - Macro - level conditions have marginally improved, but US tariffs on Chinese cotton products remain high, which is unfavorable to domestic export - oriented enterprises. The industry's improvement is not obvious, and short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate after rising, and further increase requires downstream improvement [5]. Egg Industry - The national egg supply is sufficient, which has a negative impact on egg prices. Demand may first decrease and then increase, and egg prices are expected to first fall and then rise slightly next week [8]. Meal Industry - Spring sowing of US soybeans is progressing smoothly, and the Brazilian soybean supply pressure is being realized. In the domestic market, soybean arrivals are increasing, oil mill operations are rising, but demand is not boosted, and the basis is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of soybean meal around 2,900 [10]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is stable, and the supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. The fat - to - standard price difference is narrowing, and the pressure on fat pigs is increasing. There may be an increase in the second - fattening pig supply. The demand is weak, and pig prices are expected to oscillate. The 09 contract is below 14,000, and the market is expected to neither decline sharply nor rise strongly [13][14]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market is stable, with the base grain sold out and the right of grain ownership transferred to traders. The price is stable in the northeast and may be slightly adjusted down in the north - central region. In the long term, the supply will tighten, and the price is expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices**: On May 16, the price of soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day; the price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,450 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybean oil were 12,370, up 13.80%; palm oil warehouse receipts were 1,500, up 13.80%; rapeseed oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,725 [1]. Sugar Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the sugar 2601 contract was 5,723 yuan/ton, down 0.47%; the sugar 2509 contract was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The spot price in Nanning was 6,145 yuan/ton, down 0.32% [3]. - **Industry Data**: National sugar production reached 11.1072 million tons, an increase of 11.63%; sales were 7.2446 million tons, an increase of 26.07%. The national sugar sales rate was 65.22%, an increase of 12.97% [3]. Cotton Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the cotton 2509 contract was 13,390 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the cotton 2601 contract was 13,445 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,479 yuan/ton, up 0.07% [5]. - **Industry Data**: Commercial inventory decreased by 8.0% to 415.26 tons, and the textile industry's inventory decreased by 4.4% year - on - year [5]. Egg Industry - **Prices**: On May 19, the egg 09 contract was 3,788 yuan/500KG, down 0.18%; the egg 06 contract was 2,894 yuan/500KG, up 0.31%. The egg - producing area price was 3.28 yuan/jin, down 0.07% [8]. - **Related Data**: The price of laying - hen chicks was 4.15 yuan per bird, down 1.19%; the price of culled hens was 5.22 yuan/jin, down 0.57% [8]. Meal Industry - **Prices**: On May 19, the price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 3,020 yuan/ton, down 0.98%; the price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Harbin soybeans was 3,980 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybean meal were 36,286, up 14.2%; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 31,068, down 0.67%; soybean warehouse receipts were 29,758, down 1.13% [10]. Pig Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the pig 2507 contract was 13,405 yuan/ton, down 0.67%; the pig 2509 contract was 13,660 yuan/ton, down 0.87%. The spot price in Henan was 14,980 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Industry Data**: The sample - point slaughter rate decreased by 0.32% to 146,383 heads; the self - breeding profit per pig decreased by 4.35% to 81 yuan; the number of fertile sows decreased by 0.66% to 4,039 million heads [13]. Corn Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the corn 2507 contract was 2,335 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; the corn starch 2507 contract was 2,685 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The Jinzhou Port flat - hold price of corn was 2,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Changchun spot price of corn starch was 2,670 yuan/ton, unchanged [16]. - **Industry Data**: The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 6.46% to 884; the corn starch warehouse receipts increased by 24.58% to 26,620 [16].

现货价格及基差 品种 5月16日 5月15日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 14950 15000 -50 -0.33% 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) 45 -90 135 150.00% 元/吨 泰标混合胶报价 14600 14800 -200 -1.35% 非标价差 -305 -290 -15 -5.17% 品种 5月16日 5月15日 涨跌幅 单位 涨跌 杯胶：国际市场：FOB中间价 54.20 54.15 0.05 0.09% 泰铢/公斤 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 62.25 61.75 0.50 0.81% 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 13500 13300 200 1.50% 天然橡胶：胶水：西双版纳州 13700 0.73% 13800 100 元/吨 原料：市场主流价：海南 13500 13500 0 0.00% 外胶原料：市场主流价：海南 9000 9000 0.00 0.00% 月间价差 合约 5月16日 5月15日 涨跌幅 单位 涨跌 9-1价差 -835 -820 -15 -1.83% 1-5价差 -170 1050 -1220 -116.19% 元/吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the strengthening of international oil prices, L2509 rose significantly this week, with a 3.73% increase compared to last week's closing price, reaching 7236 yuan/ton as of May 16, 2025. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, with support around 7150 and resistance around 7340 [7]. - In terms of fundamentals, supply decreased due to plant shutdowns, with production down 5.41% to 610,000 tons and capacity utilization down 4.55% to 79.52%. Demand picked up, with the average downstream product start - up rate rising 0.57%. Inventory pressure is not large, with production enterprise inventory down 8.27% to 527,800 tons and social inventory up 0.99% to 617,700 tons. Cost differences emerged, with oil - based LLDPE turning from profit to loss and coal - based LLDPE profits rising [7]. - In May, the PE industry has concentrated maintenance. Next week, production and capacity utilization are expected to decline slightly. Downstream demand varies by product, with packaging film orders increasing due to tariff cuts, while other products are in the off - season or have stable demand. International oil prices may adjust, which will impact costs [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Price**: L2509 rose significantly this week, closing at 7236 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, up 3.73% from last week's close [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased due to plant shutdowns. Demand stopped falling and rebounded. Inventory pressure is not large. Cost differences emerged between oil - based and coal - based LLDPE [7]. - **Outlook**: In May, there is concentrated maintenance in the PE industry. Next week, production and capacity utilization are expected to decline slightly. Downstream demand varies, and international oil prices may adjust. The short - term trend of L2509 is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price, Volume**: L2509 rose significantly this week, and the trading volume of the main contract increased significantly [8]. - **Open Interest, Warehouse Receipts**: The open interest decreased week - on - week, and new warehouse receipts were registered this week [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 monthly spreads strengthened slightly, while the 5 - 9 monthly spread weakened slightly. The L - PP spread strengthened [18][24]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Price**: Domestic LLDPE prices are in the range of 7470 - 7830 yuan/ton, and the CFR China quotation is 846 US dollars/ton [29]. - **Basis**: The futures price is at a discount, and the basis weakened [34]. 3.4 Industrial Situation - **Upstream**: This week, the RMB price of ethylene decreased slightly. In March, ethylene production and imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [38][41]. - **Supply**: In March, PE production increased month - on - month. This week, PE capacity utilization decreased week - on - week [45][50]. - **Cost and Profit**: This week, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased, while the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased. Oil - based LLDPE profits shrank, coal - based profits recovered, and LLDPE import profits increased significantly, opening the import window [56][62][68]. - **Inventory**: This week, PE inventory decreased, and inventory pressure is not large [73]. 3.5 Demand in the Industrial Chain - **Downstream Price**: The prices of PE downstream products decreased [77]. - **Downstream Start - up Rate, Plastic Product Output**: This week, the average downstream start - up rate increased week - on - week. From January to March 2025, the cumulative output of plastic products increased 7.3% year - on - year. The start - up rate of different downstream products varied, with the packaging film start - up rate increasing 1.11% week - on - week, the agricultural film start - up rate decreasing 2.75% week - on - week, and the pipe start - up rate remaining stable [80][86][91]. - **Plastic Product Export**: From January to April 2025, the export value of plastic products decreased 2.10% year - on - year [91]. 3.6 Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is reported at 15.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 11.95%, and that of put options is 11.94% [95].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term cautious bullish rating on styrene [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the rise of international oil prices, styrene prices rose significantly this week. The EB2506 contract closed at 7,661 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, up 9.36% from last week's closing price [7]. - On the supply side, Hengli Petrochemical's 720,000 - ton plant shut down for maintenance this week, with some plants increasing their operating loads. Production decreased by 1.27% month - on - month to 326,500 tons, and capacity utilization decreased by 0.93% month - on - month to 71.27% [7]. - On the demand side, downstream operating rates mostly increased: EPS operating rate increased by 14.96% month - on - month to 62.34%, PS operating rate increased by 0.8% month - on - month to 57.1%, ABS operating rate decreased by 1.61% month - on - month to 67.39%, UPR operating rate increased by 6% month - on - month to 33%, and styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate increased by 0.54% month - on - month to 66.92% [7]. - In terms of inventory, factory inventory decreased by 8.17% month - on - month to 212,600 tons, East China port inventory decreased by 17.23% month - on - month to 56,700 tons, and South China port inventory increased by 24.14% month - on - month to 36,000 tons [7]. - In terms of cost, the spot price of pure benzene in East China increased significantly this week, the CFR Northeast Asia ethylene price remained stable, and non - integrated costs increased month - on - month. The styrene spot price rose strongly, and non - integrated profits were significantly repaired [7]. - Looking ahead, as the impact of Hengli's shutdown expands, the supply side is expected to continue to shrink in the near term. However, as industrial chain profits shift to styrene, the impact of maintenance may be weakened by the increased load of existing plants. Overseas commodity demand is being released intensively, and the high - level inventory of EPS, PS, and ABS is being reduced. However, attention should be paid to the possibility that a significant decline in downstream profits may affect the sustainability of operating rate growth. In terms of cost, the relationship between the US and Iran is expected to ease, OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production, and international oil prices still have room to correct. The inventory of pure benzene is at a moderate level, and downstream enterprises are cautious about chasing price increases. The restart of domestic plants and the arrival of overseas resources may suppress the future increase of pure benzene prices [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Styrene prices rose significantly due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the rise of international oil prices. The EB2506 contract closed at 7,661 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, up 9.36% from last week [7]. - On the supply side, production and capacity utilization decreased. On the demand side, most downstream operating rates increased. Inventory showed a mixed trend, with factory and East China port inventory decreasing and South China port inventory increasing. Cost increased, and non - integrated profits were repaired [7]. - In the short term, styrene is cautiously bullish. Pay attention to the pressure around 7,950 for EB2506 and around 7,880 for EB2507 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The main styrene contract rose sharply, and new warehouse receipts were registered this week. The trading volume decreased month - on - month, and the 06 - 07 spread strengthened slightly [8][13]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price increased, and the futures price was at a discount. The price of ethylene in RMB decreased slightly, while the price of pure benzene in East China increased significantly [17][23]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply**: In March 2025, styrene production capacity was 22.242 million tons, and production was 1.5172 million tons, up 8.36% month - on - month and 32.55% year - on - year. This week, the capacity utilization rate of styrene plants decreased month - on - month [33][37]. - **Demand**: Downstream product prices stopped falling and rebounded, and most downstream operating rates increased. EPS and PS operating rates increased, ABS operating rate decreased, UPR operating rate increased, and the styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate decreased [40][44][49]. - **Import and Export**: In March, styrene imports were 5,700 tons, down month - on - month and up year - on - year; exports were 22,000 tons, down both month - on - month and year - on - year [56]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory was 81,700 tons, and factory inventory was 212,600 tons. East China port inventory was 56,700 tons, and South China port inventory was 25,000 tons [62][66]. - **Cost and Profit**: Non - integrated costs increased, and profits were repaired. Import profits continued to be in the red, and the import window was closed [70][74]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of the main styrene contract was 28.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 31.79%, and that of put options was 31.78% [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the PVC futures price fluctuated and rose this week. The V2509 contract closed at 4,947 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, up 2.96% from last week's close [9]. - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, some PVC production facilities were shut down for maintenance this week, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.64% to 77.70%. On the demand side, the downstream start - up rate increased by 0.46% to 46.45%, with the pipe start - up rate up 0.93% to 49.06% and the profile start - up rate remaining stable at 35.9%. As of May 15, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 3.23% to 630,000 tons, and the inventory pressure was not significant. The costs of both calcium carbide method and ethylene method decreased, and the profits of the two methods were repaired to varying degrees [9]. - Looking ahead, next week, there will be both shutdown and restart of facilities, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly, with generally low supply pressure. Affected by macro - positive factors, the domestic downstream start - up rate has rebounded, but the weak real estate market still drags down demand growth. In terms of exports, the Indian market is affected by uncertainties such as BIS certification and anti - dumping duties and the rainy season, and the unresolved tariffs imposed by the US on Vietnam may affect China's PVC raw material exports. The calcium carbide price may fluctuate, and the ethylene price may fluctuate slightly within a range. The V2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support around 4,900 and resistance around 5,100 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Price: The PVC futures price fluctuated and rose due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs. The V2509 contract closed at 4,947 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, up 2.96% from last week [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply side - some facilities were shut down for maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.64% to 77.70%. Demand side - the downstream start - up rate increased by 0.46% to 46.45%, with the pipe start - up rate up 0.93% to 49.06% and the profile start - up rate remaining stable at 35.9%. As of May 15, the social inventory decreased by 3.23% to 630,000 tons. The costs of calcium carbide method and ethylene method decreased, and the profits were repaired [9]. - Outlook: Next week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly, with low supply pressure. The domestic downstream start - up rate has rebounded, but real estate drags down demand. Exports face challenges. Calcium carbide and ethylene prices may fluctuate. The V2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 4,900 and resistance at 5,100 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Futures price and warehouse receipts: The V2509 contract fluctuated and rose, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increased week - on - week [10]. - Position and spread: The position of the main contract decreased week - on - week, and the 9 - 1 spread was slightly stronger [14]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Spot price - imports and exports: The CFR China quotation was 700 US dollars (+0), and the Southeast Asian quotation was 670 US dollars (+0) [20]. - Spot price - overseas: The Indian quotation was 700 US dollars (+0) [25]. - Spot price - domestic calcium carbide method and ethylene method: The prices of calcium carbide method and ethylene method in East China increased week - on - week [28]. - Basis: The basis fluctuated, and the futures market remained in a contango state [33]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Lanthanum coke and calcium carbide: The prices of lanthanum coke and calcium carbide remained stable this week. The lanthanum coke start - up rate was 54.13%, and the calcium carbide start - up rate was 64.38% [37][43]. - EDC and VCM: The VCM CIF intermediate price was 520 US dollars/ton, and the EDC international price was 162 US dollars/ton [47]. 3.3.2 Industry Chain - Supply - capacity and output: The PVC capacity growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 10.77%. The output in March was 2.0691 million tons, a month - on - month increase [51]. - Supply - capacity utilization and maintenance: The PVC capacity utilization rate decreased week - on - week [55]. - Demand - downstream start - up rate: The pipe start - up rate increased week - on - week, and the profile start - up rate remained stable [59]. - Demand - PVC floor exports: The PVC floor exports in March increased month - on - month [63]. - Imports and exports: Exports in March increased month - on - month, and imports increased month - on - month but remained at a low level [66]. - Inventory: The PVC social inventory decreased week - on - week [70]. - Cost: The calcium carbide method cost decreased slightly, and the ethylene method cost decreased week - on - week [74]. - Profit: The process profits of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method were repaired this week [80]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 17.90%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.89%, and that of put options was 19.93% [85].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 聚丙烯市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员：徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 价格：本周受中美关税下调叠加国际油价走强影响，PP期货价格大幅拉涨。周四、周五PP随国际油价走 弱回调，整体冲高回落收涨。截至2025年5月16日收盘，PP2509合约报收于7093元/吨，较上周收盘上涨 1.81%。 基本面：供应端，本周中煤榆林、茂名石化、惠州立拓等装置停车检修，PP产量环比-4.00%至74.86万吨， 产能利用率环比-3.19%至76.56%。需求端，本周下游开工止降回升，平均开工率环比+0.33%至49.83%。 本周PP商业库存在83.86万吨，环比-6.51%，压力不大。上游企业密集检修，供应压力减弱，生产企业库 存环比-8.04%；终端产品外贸环境改善，市场交投好转，中间商低位备货，贸易商库存环比+11.27%；出 口成交增量有限，港口库 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices showing certain resilience and remaining relatively firm. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. - The market focus for soybeans is on Sino - US trade relations and North American planting season weather. The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to experience intensified fluctuations in the short term due to a mix of positive and negative factors [7]. - With an increase in soybean arrivals and high - level operation of oil mills, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and it is likely to operate weakly with a short - selling strategy recommended when prices are high [8]. - The supply of soybean oil is also expected to increase, and it is expected to operate weakly in the short term. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Soybean No. 1**: This week, the main 2507 contract rose by 0.36% to 4168 yuan/ton. The market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and prices are relatively firm. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [6]. - **Soybean No. 2**: The main 2509 contract fell by 0.28% to 3520 yuan/ton. The market is influenced by Sino - US trade relations and weather, and the CBOT soybean futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The main 2509 contract remained flat at 2899 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and it is likely to operate weakly. A short - selling strategy is recommended when prices are high [8]. - **Soybean Oil**: The main 2509 contract fell by 0.33% to 7754 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and it is expected to operate weakly. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Changes**: Soybean No. 1 rose, soybean meal remained flat, and soybean oil fell this week [13][19][25]. - **Spread Changes**: The 9 - 1 spreads of soybean meal and soybean oil both decreased [31][36]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipt Changes**: The net position of soybean No. 1 decreased, and its warehouse receipts increased; the net position of soybean meal increased, and its warehouse receipts increased; the net position of soybean oil decreased, and its warehouse receipts increased [43][47][55]. Spot Market - **Price and Basis Changes**: The spot price of domestic soybeans remained flat, and the basis decreased; the spot price of soybean meal fell, and the basis decreased; the spot price of soybean oil declined, and the basis decreased [62][68][72]. - **Imported Soybean Indicators**: The import premium of imported soybeans changed, and the arrival cost of imported soybeans increased [76][80]. 3. Industry Situation Weather - **North American Weather**: The drought situation in the US soybean - producing areas has deepened compared with last week and is worse than the same period last year [84]. - **US Soybean Weather**: In the 6 - 10 - day outlook, the temperature in the main US soybean - producing states is close to normal, and rainfall is lower than normal [88]. Upstream - **Supply - Side Information**: The expected production and inventory of US soybeans in the new year have been adjusted downward; the expected production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans remains unchanged, and their inventories have increased [90][95][100]. - **Sowing and Harvesting Progress**: The US soybean sowing progress is fast, and the Argentine soybean harvesting progress has recovered [107]. - **Export - Related Information**: The US soybean export inspection volume and sales volume have decreased, while Brazil's soybean export is expected to increase [113][119]. Domestic Industry - **Inventory and Operation of Oil Mills**: The soybean inventory of major oil mills, soybean meal inventory, and soybean oil inventory have all increased. The oil mill operating rate is expected to rise [123][127][131][135]. - **Soybean Import and Arrival**: In April, the import volume of soybeans increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume of soybeans in May is expected to increase [141][145]. - **Profit and Substitute Products**: The profit of domestic soybeans has decreased. The price of palm oil has risen, the price of rapeseed oil has fallen, the price of rapeseed meal has decreased, and the oil - meal ratio has declined [149][153][166][173]. - **Transaction Volume**: The spot transaction volume of soybean meal and the terminal transaction volume of soybean oil have both increased [181]. Downstream - **Livestock and Poultry Market**: The prices of live pigs and piglets have fallen, and the breeding profits of live pigs and poultry have declined [186][192]. - **Feed Market**: The monthly output of feed has decreased month - on - month, the inventory of breeding sows has increased, and the inventory of live pigs has increased month - on - month [197][202]. 4. Options Market - From the trend of soybean meal, it is recommended to buy at - the - money put options as it is expected to operate weakly [214]