中邮证券认为，黄金：2026年，黄金行情大概率会继续演绎，交易盘和配置盘的共振之下，甚至不排除 会有更加超出预期的上涨行情，理由如下：1）美元信用似乎在动摇，2026年美国长债依然存在供需压 力，稳定币难以在长久期负债端缓解其压力，黄金替代美债进行资产配置的长逻辑依然有效。2）ETF 的继续流入，历史上看，降息后美国和欧洲的ETF会随之流入，鸽派预期下，降息空间打开，且美联储 扩表必然压制短端利率，会促进西方投资者继续买入黄金ETF。白银：白银在2026年有望继续上涨。不 仅在于其库存的下降造就了现货市场的紧张，部分国家将其储备资产化也有望继续推动实物市场的短 缺，从而加大价格的弹性。 国泰海通证券认为，美联储降息催化，贵金属震荡上行。美联储确认降息25个基点，且将根据需要启动 短期美国国债购买操作，市场流动性预期良好，推动贵金属价格稳步上行。预期圣诞节前，市场的流动 性将保持宽松，贵金属价格将持续偏强。 12月22日，全球贵金属主要品种集体上涨，截至12月22日17时，伦敦金现上涨近1.7%，盘中创下 4420.47美元/盎司的新高，年初至今上涨超68%；伦敦银现上涨超1.7%，盘中创出69.45美元/盎司 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - environment in 2026 continues to warm up. The combination of "low inflation + weak reality + Fed chair change" in the US is conducive to Fed easing, and the quality of January's economic data is expected to return to normal. The "broad fiscal + broad monetary" policy in the US will promote economic prosperity. The ECB maintained interest rates in December and raised GDP forecasts for this year and next, while Japan's interest rate hike was in line with expectations and not a radical tightening, with an upward adjustment of the 2025 GDP growth forecast and maintaining the 2026 forecast [6]. - In November domestically, social retail sales year - on - year was 1.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. Commodity retail continued to weaken, while service consumption improved. Investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate continued to decline, but exports were strong [6]. - In asset allocation, the macro - environment is favorable for the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors. For precious metals, the logic for gold's rise is clear and it has a high safety margin, while silver's volatility risk increases after a sharp rise. For non - ferrous metals, there are opportunities to buy on dips for commodities with more supply disruptions like copper, aluminum, and tin, and attention should be paid to lithium carbonate with good supply - demand performance. The domestic equity sector should be defensive at the end of the year and during the policy window period [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures was at 4564.8 with a daily increase of 0.83%, weekly increase of 0.83%, monthly increase of 2.07%, quarterly decrease of 1.15%, and an annual increase of 16.42%. The Shanghai 50 futures was at 3018.4 with a daily increase of 0.40%, weekly increase of 0.40%, monthly increase of 2.01%, quarterly increase of 0.98%, and an annual increase of 12.71%. The CSI 500 futures was at 7123.2 with a daily increase of 0.96%, weekly increase of 0.96%, monthly increase of 4.74%, quarterly decrease of 2.29%, and an annual increase of 25.12%. The CSI 1000 futures was at 7203.6 with a daily increase of 0.87%, weekly increase of 0.87%, monthly increase of 2.53%, quarterly decrease of 2.74%, and an annual increase of 23.17% [2]. - **Bond Futures**: The 2 - year bond futures was at 102.464 with a daily decrease of 0.03%, weekly decrease of 0.03%, monthly increase of 0.08%, quarterly increase of 0.17%, and an annual decrease of 0.50%. The 5 - year bond futures was at 105.86 with a daily decrease of 0.10%, weekly decrease of 0.10%, monthly increase of 0.11%, quarterly increase of 0.32%, and an annual decrease of 0.64%. The 10 - year bond futures was at 107.98 with a daily decrease of 0.16%, weekly decrease of 0.16%, monthly increase of 0.04%, quarterly increase of 0.42%, and an annual decrease of 0.87%. The 30 - year bond futures was at 111.98 with a daily decrease of 0.60%, weekly decrease of 0.60%, monthly decrease of 2.19%, quarterly decrease of 1.40%, and an annual decrease of 5.76% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.7125 with no daily or weekly change, a monthly decrease of 0.73%, quarterly increase of 0.91%, and an annual decrease of 9.01%. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was at 1.1708, with 0 pips change daily and weekly, 107 pips increase monthly, 26 pips decrease quarterly, and 1355 pips increase annually. The US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate was at 157.729, with 0 pips daily change, no weekly change, 1.00% monthly increase, 6.63% quarterly increase, and 0.34% annual increase [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.44 with no daily or weekly change, a 6 - bp monthly decrease, 1 - bp quarterly decrease, and 31 - bp annual decrease. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.83 with a 0.5 - bp daily decrease, no weekly change, 1 - bp monthly decrease, 3 - bp quarterly decrease, and 0.2 - bp annual increase. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.16 with a 4 - bp daily increase, no weekly change, 0.03 - bp monthly increase, no quarterly change, and 39 - bp annual decrease [2]. 3.2 Overseas Commodity Market - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 56.54 with a daily increase of 1.14%, weekly decrease of 1.72%, monthly decrease of 3.32%, quarterly decrease of 9.43%, and an annual decrease of 21.33. ICE Brent crude oil was at 60.12 with a daily increase of 1.20%, weekly decrease of 1.80%, monthly decrease of 3.53%, quarterly decrease of 9.12%, and an annual decrease of 19.664. NYMEX natural gas was at 4.026 with a daily increase of 2.05%, weekly decrease of 1.83%, monthly decrease of 17.19%, quarterly increase of 20.86%, and an annual increase of 10.82% [2]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold was at 4368.7 with a daily increase of 0.11%, weekly increase of 0.90%, monthly increase of 2.64%, quarterly increase of 12.38%, and an annual increase of 65.52%. COMEX silver was at 67.395 with a daily increase of 2.97%, weekly increase of 8.55%, monthly increase of 18.06%, quarterly increase of 43.88%, and an annual increase of 130.109 [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper, LME aluminum, LME zinc, etc. had different price changes. For example, LME copper had a certain increase in some periods, LME aluminum was at 2945 with a daily increase of 0.99%, weekly increase of 2.43%, monthly increase of 2.79%, quarterly increase of 9.60%, and an annual increase of 15.38% [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans were at 1049 with a daily decrease of 0.24%, weekly decrease of 2.53%, monthly decrease of 7.76%, quarterly increase of 4.82%, and an annual increase of 3.86%. CBOT corn was at 443.25 with a daily decrease of 0.17%, weekly increase of 0.62%, monthly decrease of 1.01%, quarterly increase of 6.55%, and an annual decrease of 3.38% [2]. 3.3 Domestic Commodity Market - **Shipping**: The container shipping European line was at 1871.8 with a daily increase of 8.84%, weekly increase of 8.84%, monthly increase of 27.17%, quarterly increase of 13.94%, and an annual decrease of 17.07% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold was at 1000.86 with a daily increase of 2.14%, weekly increase of 2.14%, monthly increase of 4.92%, quarterly increase of 14.15%, and an annual increase of 62.06%. Silver was at 16210 with a daily increase of 5.42%, weekly increase of 5.42%, monthly increase of 27.37%, quarterly increase of 48.06%, and an annual increase of 117.00% [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was at 94320 with a daily increase of 1.22%, weekly increase of 1.22%, monthly increase of 7.92%, quarterly increase of 13.57%, and an annual increase of 27.86%. Aluminum, zinc, and other non - ferrous metals also had their own price change trends [3]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as raw materials like iron ore, coke, and coking coal, had different price fluctuations. For example, rebar was at 3126 with a daily increase of 0.22%, weekly increase of 0.22%, monthly increase of 0.29%, quarterly decrease of 0.06%, and an annual decrease of 5.53% [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, and other energy and chemical products had various price changes. For example, crude oil was at 437.9 with a daily increase of 2.65%, weekly increase of 2.65%, monthly decrease of 3.78%, quarterly decrease of 8.73%, and an annual decrease of 21.79% [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Grains, oils, and livestock products such as soybeans, corn, and hogs had their own price trends. For example, hogs were at 11345 with a daily increase of 0.18%, weekly increase of 0.18%, monthly increase of 0.84%, quarterly decrease of 9.09%, and an annual decrease of 11.37% [3]. 3.4 Sector - by - Sector Short - term Judgments - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options are expected to be volatile, and bond futures are expected to be volatile [7]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping European line is expected to be volatile [7]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Some varieties like copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while others are expected to be volatile [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals Sector**: Some varieties like PX and PTA are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while others such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to decline in a volatile manner, and most are expected to be volatile [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Some varieties like cotton are expected to be volatile, while others such as hogs and sugar are expected to decline in a volatile manner [9].

嘉宾： 01 破旧立新，行稳致远——2026融达期货年度策略会（上） 14:00-17:20 核心看点： 破旧立新，行稳致远！2026宏观主线如何演变？钢 铁、双焦、铁合金、铝市供需格局将如何重塑？弘 则研究与融达期货联合发声，深度解析黑色与有色 产业链投资逻辑。一场聚焦周期拐点与资产配置的 年度策略前瞻，不容错过！ 张绪成 | 开源证券能源＆建材首席分析师 李晓瞳 | 弘则研究宏观分析师 魏忻悦 | |弘则研究建材组组长 李娟 | 融达期货铁合金分析师 贾双华 | 融达期货黑色研究员 李魁 | 融达期货有色研究员 扫码预约 02 煤炭丨开源张绪成：煤炭反内卷重塑价值，周期与红利攻守兼备【首席开麦2025】 15:00-16:00 核心看点： 2016年以来供给侧改革成功的标杆与典范，随着国 内能源结构的转型、以及双碳政策深入推进，行业 有望再次迎来供给侧改革（即反内卷）。供给侧改 革或反内卷的标准定义分为两个阶段：一是减产量 抬煤价，二是去产能调结构，二者缺一不可，且二 是一的基础。碳达峰之后我们会面临再次的产能过 剩，当前提前着手于供给端的产能优化，有望促使 煤炭价格趋于合理稳定。我们分析认为翘盼的反内 ...

在全球经济周期波动与金融市场不确定性增加的背景下，高净值人群的资产配置逻辑正在发生静默而深刻的转向。一种趋向于"防御性"与"实体化"的偏好日 益清晰，而核心城市、稀缺地段的不动产，再度成为这一策略中的重要组成部分。 罗牛山玖悦台 这种资产配置思路，反映了一种更为成熟的财富观念：从追逐增长的"放大器"，转向构筑根基的"稳定器"。它不提供戏剧性的财富故事，而是旨在对抗通胀 与波动，为整体财富金字塔提供一个确定性的基底。当风雨来临，它最重要的回报或许不是增值，而是"不贬值"所带来的那份从容与底气。 观察者指出，这一选择的底层逻辑并非追求短期溢价，而是寻求长期稳健的"压舱石"效应。其价值支撑主要源于三重维度：首先是区位的不可再生性，即占 据城市发展主轴或自然禀赋极佳的绝版地块；其次是产品的稀缺属性，如纯粹的大尺度平层设计、直面稀缺景观的资源占有等，这使其脱离了普通住宅的竞 争体系；最后是开发主体的长期信用，历经周期考验的兑现能力成为信誉背书。 罗牛山玖悦台下沉广场 本文探讨宏观经济背景下高净值人群的资产配置趋势，不构成任何具体投资指导。 ...

戴丹苗（国信证券经济研究所分析师） 此外，公募REITs与主流资产的弱相关性特征，使其成为优化投资组合的重要工具。2025年以来，中证 REITs指数与沪深300、10年期国债、黄金、中证红利股均呈现弱相关或极弱相关特征，相关系数分别 为-0.07、0.14、0.21、0.17，核心源于各类资产的收益驱动逻辑、市场环境适配性及资金偏好的本质差 异。中证REITs与沪深300因上半年和下半年的阶段性反向走势对冲，形成极弱负相关；与10年期国债 虽受利率波动存在阶段性弱联动，但前者兼具债性与底层资产运营属性，后者为纯债性资产，属性差异 削弱了相关性；与黄金仅在二季度避险资金驱动下形成短期共振，但黄金受全球宏观因素影响、REITs 聚焦国内实体资产与政策支持，核心驱动因素不同导致弱正相关；与红利股虽因共同的稳定分红属性吸 引长期资金形成弱关联基础，但前者收益依赖底层资产运营现金流，受政策扩容驱动明显，后者受企业 经营周期与权益市场波动影响更大，逻辑差异拉低了相关性。 四年蝶变启新程，中国公募REITs市场已从试点探索迈入规模化发展的新阶段。政策层面的持续加码， 底层资产的不断扩围，配置价值的日益凸显，共同构成了市场 ...

贵金属市场集体迎来"高光"时刻。12月22日，黄金、白银、铂金、钯金四大贵金属品种同步发力，奏响 上涨"主旋律"。Wind数据显示，截至15:00，伦敦金现盘中冲高至4420.070美元/盎司，突破10月20日 4381.48美元/盎司的前期高点，刷新历史纪录；伦敦银现更是首度站上69美元/盎司关口，盘中最高触及 69.45美元/盎司，同步改写历史峰值。国际期货市场亦同步跟涨，COMEX黄金攀升至4443.5美元/盎 司，COMEX白银期货冲高至69.525美元/盎司，均再创历史新高。 铂金、钯金两大品种也同样展现出亮眼的上行表现。截至15:00，现货铂金盘中冲高至2074.10美元/盎 司，日内涨幅超4%，为2008年以来首次突破2000美元/盎司整数关口，年内累计涨幅已超126%；现货钯 金日内最高触及1796.5美元/盎司，日内涨幅同样超4%，延续强劲上涨势头。 对于这一驱动逻辑，中信证券首席经济学家明明也表达了认同，他表示，本轮贵金属"全面开花"既源于 投资者对美联储降息的强预期、全球地缘形势的持续不确定性，也受到美国通胀黏性等复杂宏观变量的 叠加影响。"一方面，当前宏观环境的多重特征均对贵金属上涨形 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of diversifying asset allocation during market downturns, suggesting a strategy based on the formula "100 - age" for determining the percentage of assets to allocate to stocks and bonds [2] - For stock assets, it is recommended to invest more during 4-star to 5-star market phases, while gradually reducing investment as the market rebounds [2] - For new income, such as monthly salaries or year-end bonuses, it is advised to use a systematic investment plan (SIP) to manage long-term unused funds [4] Group 2 - The article suggests that during 3-star and above market phases, investors should consider systematic investments in bond assets [4] - A survey indicates that a typical investor should allocate about 20% of new income for systematic investments, which is considered a reasonable proportion [4] - The article introduces the "Screw Nut" investment advisory combinations, which include both stock and bond-focused portfolios to meet family asset allocation needs [5]

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,523.50 per troy ounce Friday, up 0.5% from Wednesday’s closing price of $4,502.80. Gold’s opening price has exceeded $4,500 for three consecutive days. Gold’s year-to-date gain has edged above 74%. Safe-haven demand continues to be a driving force. When geopolitical conflict or economic uncertainty casts doubt on the outlook for riskier assets like stocks, gold demand tends to rise. Gold has historically been a reliable store of value that can partially offset potential ...

雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投，分享指数基金基础分析，让我们：买入有依，持有有底，卖出有 据。 以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 以下是本次圆桌对谈中 ， 61提到的主要观点 ： 1 、 牛熊转换阶段 ， 决定结果的不是判断方向 ， 而是 攻守是否平衡 。 低点扛不住 ， 等不到牛市 ； 只守不攻 ， 也会在结构性行情中留下遗 憾 。 2 、 牛市真正的风险 ， 不在下跌 ， 而在上涨过程中丢掉安全边际 。 情绪扩张时的盲目自信 ， 是投资中最大的隐患 。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：六亿居士 来源：雪球 上周末 ， 61受邀参加雪球嘉年华 ， 参与了 《 如何买基金收益更稳定 》 的主题圆桌讨论 。 会上见到了不少关注61的朋友 ， 感谢大伙的厚爱 。 3 、 熊市和牛市都是长期投资的组成部分 ， 不是对立面 。 短期波动只是生命周期中的一段 ， 不值得被过度放大 。 4 、 牛市中更容易亏钱 ， 是因为很多人没想清楚三件事 ： 初衷 ...

投资的核心在于匹配风险与收益。展望2026年，王保合针对进取型与稳健型两类投资者，分别给出了针 对性的资产配置建议。 对于风险承受能力较高的进取型投资者，王保合认为，2026年在权益、固收和商品三类资产中，权益资 产将具备明显优势。具体到市场节奏的把握，王保合提出"先科技后周期"的观点：2026年上半年，全球 流动性宽松格局有望持续，估值驱动将成为市场主线，成长性突出、具备技术突破潜力的板块将率先受 益，可重点关注海外算力、国内算力及AI应用等领域。此外，主题轮动机会同样值得关注，机器人、 商业卫星等新兴赛道具备长期成长潜力，有望成为市场焦点。 近年来，国内ETF市场呈现爆发式增长，已成为资本市场中不可忽视的重要力量。2024年，国内被动指 数类产品规模首次超过主动基金规模，这一数据充分反映了市场对被动投资的认可。从产品供给来看， 目前市场上ETF数量已超1500只，覆盖品类极为全面。丰富的产品体系与便捷的投资属性，让指数基金 成为普通投资者参与市场的优质工具，也为资产配置提供了坚实的基础设施支撑。 本报讯 （记者昌校宇）面对日益丰富的投资工具与复杂的市场环境，如何借助指数工具实现资产的科 学配置与动态调整， ...