Core Viewpoint - In 2026, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, utilizing various monetary policy tools flexibly and efficiently [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC aims to align the growth of social financing scale and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [1]. - In 2025, over 50% of the social financing scale was accounted for by financing methods other than bonds and loans, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 [1]. Group 2: Focus Areas for Financial Support - The PBOC will enhance financial services for high-quality development of the real economy, focusing on expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and support for small and micro enterprises [3][5]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be utilized to support consumption, effective investment, and green transformation [5]. Group 3: Financial Market Opening and Cross-Border Use - The PBOC plans to deepen high-level financial market opening, facilitating the use of the Renminbi in trade and investment, and improving infrastructure for cross-border Renminbi usage [6]. - The optimization of mechanisms like "Bond Connect" and "Swap Connect" will be pursued, along with welcoming more qualified foreign entities to issue Panda bonds [6]. Group 4: Additional Policies and Innovations - The PBOC will implement a one-time personal credit repair policy and optimize payment services for the elderly and foreign personnel in China [9]. - There will be a focus on strengthening regulation of virtual currencies and promoting the steady development of digital Renminbi [9].

转自：北京日报客户端 《经济参考报》1月7日刊发记者向家莹采写的文章《央行定调2026货币政策 降准降息"灵活高效"》。 文章称，2026年中国人民银行工作会议1月5日至6日召开。根据会议释放的信号，央行将继续实施适度 宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度；灵活高效运用降 准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕；完善结构性货币政策工具体系，优化工具设计和管理， 加强对扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融支持。 在适度宽松货币政策的实施路径上，会议指出，把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的 重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件相对宽 松，引导金融总量合理增长、信贷投放均衡，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水 平预期目标相匹配。畅通货币政策传导机制，发挥好政策利率引导作用，做好利率政策执行和监督，促 进社会综合融资成本低位运行。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，围绕"五篇大文章"落地，2026年央行将优化用好各类结构性货币政 策工具，总体呈现"加量降价"态势——工具额度大概率稳步增加，操作利 ...

1.2026年中国人民银行工作会议1月5日-6日召开，会议强调，继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效 应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，着力扩大内需、优化供给，防范化解风险、稳定社会预期。 2.12月份全国建筑钢材生产企业共计26家企业进行了减产检修，较上月减少16家；影响建筑钢材产量259.21万吨，环比增加 28.74%。 早盘速递 2026/1/7 热点资讯 | | | | 大类资产表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 | 日涨跌幅% | 月内涨跌幅% | 年内涨跌幅（%） | 近一年走势 | | | 上证指数 | 1.50 | 2.89 | 2.89 | | | | 上证50 | 1.90 | 4.21 | 4.21 | | | | 沪深300 | 1.55 | 3.47 | 3.47 | | | | 中证500 | 2.13 | 4.67 | 4.67 | | | 权益 | 标普500 | 0.62 | 1.45 | 1.45 | | | | 恒生指数 | 1.38 | 4.21 | 4.21 | | | ...

1月5日至6日召开的2026年中国人民银行工作会议,从多个方面提出了2026年的重点工作。中国人民银行 明确表示,2026年将进一步完善金融"五篇大文章"政策框架,高质量建设和发展债券市场"科技板",用好服 务消费与养老再贷款,推动加大服务消费领域信贷投放,提升金融机构中小微企业金融服务能力。 据新 华社 中国人民银行1月6日对外公布了2026年的重点工作。中国人民银行介绍,2026年将继续实施好适度宽松 的货币政策,灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具,保持社会融资条件相对宽松。提升金融服务实 体经济高质量发展质效,加强对扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融支持。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is bullish [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, rebar prices closed down while hot-rolled coil prices closed up, and both rose during the night session. The market sentiment is bullish as most commodities rose during the night session, and rebar and hot-rolled coil prices soared. Before the holiday, the supply and demand of the top five steel products both decreased, and inventory continued to decline. The market will gradually enter the winter storage period, and there will be an increase in demand. The futures market has started to price in the winter storage logic in advance, leading to a price rebound. The rebound space depends on the intensity of winter storage, which is estimated to be limited [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Tuesday, rebar prices closed down while hot-rolled coil prices closed up, and both rose during the night session [1] Important News - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.3394 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 20.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.9% [1] - Henan aims to start construction on about 1,500 new projects in the first quarter of 2026 [1] - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, global shipyards received a total of 31 + 4 new ship orders, with Chinese shipyards receiving 24 + 4 orders, South Korean shipyards receiving 1 order, and Finnish and American shipyards also receiving relevant orders [1] - The 2026 Work Conference of the People's Bank of China was held from January 5th to 6th. The conference emphasized the need to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, leveraging the integrated effects of incremental and existing policies, and increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts. Various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be flexibly and efficiently used to maintain ample liquidity [1] Market Logic - Most commodities rose during the night session, and rebar and hot-rolled coil prices soared, with bullish market sentiment. Before the holiday, the supply and demand of the top five steel products both decreased, and inventory continued to decline. The resistance level for the main rebar contract is 3,200, and the support level is 3,030. The market will gradually enter the winter storage period, and there will be an increase in demand. The futures market has started to price in the winter storage logic in advance, leading to a price rebound. The rebound space depends on the intensity of winter storage, which is estimated to be limited [1] Trading Strategy - Try to establish long positions and set stop-loss levels. Hold existing long positions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the importance of promoting high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy in 2026, indicating a shift towards a more targeted approach in monetary supply to support economic growth [2][3]. Group 1: Key Work Areas for 2026 - The PBOC will focus on seven key areas in 2026: strict governance of the Party, implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, enhancing financial services for high-quality economic development, managing financial risks in key sectors, deepening financial reform and opening up, promoting global financial governance reform, and improving financial management and service capabilities [2]. - The monetary policy will utilize various tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity and ensure that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations [2][5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism - The PBOC aims to improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy by ensuring a reasonable interest rate relationship, which includes the relationship between central bank policy rates and market rates, as well as rates across different types of assets and risk levels [5][6]. - The key to effective monetary policy transmission lies in the reform of interest rate marketization, which will enhance the effectiveness of financial resource allocation and support the real economy [6]. Group 3: Disclosure of Loan Financing Costs - The PBOC has initiated a pilot program to disclose comprehensive financing costs for corporate loans, which has been implemented in 30 provinces since September 2024, benefiting many small and medium-sized enterprises [8]. - The program involves banks and enterprises filling out a "comprehensive financing cost list" to transparently outline all costs associated with loans, including interest and non-interest fees, thereby promoting lower overall financing costs [8][9]. Group 4: Exchange Rate Stability - The PBOC aims to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level while preventing excessive fluctuations, which aligns with previous statements from the monetary policy committee [11][12]. - Recent trends show the RMB strengthening against the USD, with the onshore and offshore RMB surpassing the 7.0 mark, indicating a potential for dual-directional fluctuations in the exchange rate due to various economic factors [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continues to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic stability and growth in 2026, following a year of effective monetary measures in 2025 that boosted market confidence and facilitated economic recovery [1][5]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Effectiveness - The steady recovery of the real economy in 2025 was significantly supported by proactive monetary policy measures, which included a series of targeted policies to address challenges such as supply-demand imbalances [2][3]. - The monetary policy in 2025 was characterized by rapid total growth, with tools like reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions maintaining ample liquidity [2][4]. - The overall financing cost for society decreased to historically low levels, with the average interest rate for new corporate loans at approximately 3.1%, down about 30 basis points year-on-year [2][3]. Group 2: Structural Adjustments - The PBOC increased the quota for re-lending aimed at technological innovation and consumption, with 300 billion yuan allocated for tech innovation and 500 billion yuan for consumption and elderly care [3]. - By the end of November 2025, the balance of various loans in renminbi reached 271 trillion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, with significant increases in loans to small and micro enterprises and the manufacturing sector [3]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The PBOC plans to enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments in 2026, ensuring that monetary supply aligns with economic growth and price stability targets [5][6]. - The proportion of financing methods outside traditional loans exceeded 50% in 2025, indicating a shift towards a more diversified financing structure that aligns with high-quality development goals [6]. - The PBOC aims to improve transparency in loan costs, helping businesses understand their financing expenses better, which is expected to enhance consumer confidence and stimulate demand [7].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 7 日星期三 | | | | | | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 周二铁矿收涨。夜盘继续收涨。 | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | 1、上周（2025 年 12 月 29 日-2026 年 1 月 4 日），10 个重点城市新建商品房成交 | | | | （签约）面积总计 233.94 万平方米，环比下降 20.3%，同比下降 10.9%。 | | | | 2、河南：力争 2026 年第一季度新开工项目 1500 个左右。 | | | | 3、据国际船舶网跟踪：2025 年 12 月 29 日至 2026 年 1 月 4 日，全球船厂共接获 | | | | 31+4 艘新船订单。其中中国船厂接获 24+4 艘新船订单；韩国船厂接获 1 艘新船订 | | | | 单；芬兰和美国船厂也接获相关新船订单。 | | 黑色建材 铁矿 | 偏多 | 4、2026 年中国人民银行工作会议 1 月 ...

2026年中国人民银行工作会议1月5日-6日召开。会议认为，2025年以来，面对复杂严峻的国内外经济金融形势，中国人民银行坚决落实党中 央、国务院决策部署，在执行好存量货币政策基础上，推出新的一揽子货币政策措施，有力支持实体经济稳定增长和金融市场平稳运行，持 续深化金融供给侧结构性改革，稳妥处置重点领域金融风险，积极推动全球金融治理改革完善，纵深推进全面从严治党，各项工作迈上新台 阶。 会议强调，中国人民银行要以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面贯彻党的二十大和二十届历次全会精神，认真落实中央经济 工作会议决策部署，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调 节力度，提升金融服务实体经济高质量发展质效，深化金融改革和更高水平对外开放，增强宏观政策前瞻性针对性协同性，着力扩大内需、 优化供给，防范化解风险、稳定社会预期，为经济稳定增长、高质量发展和金融市场稳定运行营造良好的货币金融环境，为实现"十五五"良 好开局提供有力的金融支撑。 2026年重点抓好以下工作： 一是持之以恒推进全面从严治党。 坚持把学习贯彻习近平总书记重要讲话和指示批示精 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy for 2026, focusing on enhancing financial services for high-quality economic development and deepening financial reforms and higher-level opening-up [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Development - The PBOC will implement a flexible and efficient use of various monetary policy tools, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, to maintain ample liquidity and support balanced credit growth [2][3]. - The focus will be on promoting high-quality economic development and a reasonable recovery of prices as key considerations for monetary policy [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Risk Management - The PBOC aims to effectively manage financial risks in key areas by enhancing macro-prudential management and maintaining financial stability [3]. - A mechanism will be established to provide liquidity to non-bank institutions under specific scenarios, and there will be a focus on strengthening regulatory enforcement in financial markets [3]. Group 3: Financial Reform and Opening-Up - The PBOC will continue to optimize mechanisms like "Bond Connect" and "Swap Connect," supporting the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center and enhancing Hong Kong's status [3]. - There will be encouragement for more eligible foreign entities to issue Panda bonds, facilitating cross-border financial services [3]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Management - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) emphasizes building a more convenient, open, secure, and intelligent foreign exchange management system for 2026 [5]. - Key tasks include deepening foreign exchange facilitation reforms, supporting the development of new trade formats like cross-border e-commerce, and enhancing the management of trade credit reporting [5]. Group 5: Safeguarding Foreign Exchange Reserves - The focus will be on ensuring the safety, liquidity, and value preservation of foreign exchange reserves, with plans to revise the Foreign Exchange Management Regulations [5].