（原标题：学习笔记｜推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长） 第三，会议首次提出，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应。须知，增量政策往往是用于应对经济运行中 的突发情况和重大问题。同时，经济政策和产业政策都存在"递延"和"拖尾"的特征，政策从研究、出台 到实施、见效，需要经历一个存在"时滞"过程。增量政策的出台，起到的是一个"脉冲"的效应；存量政 策的落实，起到的则是一个"平滑"的作用。 最后，重点工作上，本次部署了8大重点任务。考虑到明年增长的外部不确定性增多，因此必须要借 助"十五五"开局之年的良好势头，把投资"快变量"的特征发挥出来，同时带动消费和物价持续回升。 12月8日，中共中央政治局会议召开，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议提出，坚持稳中求进工作总基 调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增 强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产 力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预 期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好 ...

会议肯定了今年以来我国经济运行"总体平稳、稳中有进"的态势，新质生产力稳步发展，改革开放迈出 新步伐，重点领域风险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力，社会大局保持稳定。 对明年的经济工作，会议指出要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的 货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理 效能。 在多位受访人士看来，今年宏观经济在复杂多变的内外部环境下依然展现出一定的韧性，"十四五"平稳 收官，"十五五"蓄势待发。从政策基调看，明年的政策基调在于既有政策框架内执行的"质"和"效"，将 政策效力落到实处。从"以进促稳"到"提质增效"，政策重心从稳增长走向调结构。 稳增长与提质增效并重 回溯去年12月召开的政治局会议，彼时已明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充实完 善政策工具箱。货币政策方面，告别沿用十多年的"稳健"，"适度宽松"重回政策视野。在财政政策方 面，"实施更加积极的财政政策" 为狭义财政赤字和广义赤字提升释放了预期信号。 而在今年12月政治局会议中再次明确，2026年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极 的财政 ...

国债期货日报 2025/12/9 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 107.980 | 0.12% T主力成交量 | 75883 | -22485↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.785 | 0.07% TF主力成交量 | 57038 | -15253↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.430 | 0.02% TS主力成交量 | 30157 | -7733↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 112.590 | 0.45% TL主力成交量 | 110374 | -64954↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2512价差 | -0.16 | -0.10↓ T03-TL03价差 | -4.61 | -0.28↓ | | | T2603-2512价差 | -0.18 | +0.02↑ TF03-T03价差 | -2.20 | -0.03↓ | | | TF2603-2512价差 | 0.00 | -0.02↓ TS03-T03价差 | -5 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 "十五五"开端的"稳中求进" 事件描述 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中 国共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。 事件点评 站在"十五五"开端的"稳中求进"。会议重申"稳中求进"总基调，但在"十四五" 与"十五五"交接的节点上，其内涵发生了战略扩容。"稳"的核心逻辑从单纯的 经济增速维稳延伸至国家安全与发展主动权的统筹，特别是要"更好统筹国内 经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，以确保护航国内产业链、供应链的安全。而"进"则 承载了为"十五五"确立新坐标的使命，通过"适度宽松"的政策环境支持技术突 破和产业升级，确保新旧动能转换期间经济不失速。 货币宽松面临"两大约束"，降息或将"谨慎"。尽管货币政策定调转向"适度宽 松"，但我们认为价格型工具的使用将面临掣肘。首先是人民币汇率的硬约束， 在应对"国际经贸斗争"背景下，需防止中美利差倒挂过大引发资本外流；其次 是商业银行净息差的底线约束，需维护金融系统稳定。因此，预计未来央行将 更多依赖降准、买债等"量"的工具，降息路径大概率采取"存款利率先行"的非 对称模式。 财 ...

12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。 多家券商首席经济学家分享了最新的学习体会。券商预计，2025年顺利实现发展目标，2026年仍需保持较高的 目标设定，兼顾"硬实力"与"软实力"，统筹内外，优化存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，着力创造就业保"四 稳"，构建流畅内循环、强韧性的内需市场，持之以恒改善民生；政策实施层面注重政策落地后的持续推进增 强实效，政策部署更重衔接协同集成效应。 财政和货币政策仍有较大空间 会议指出，"继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"。对此，浙商证券首席经济学家李超表示， 结合积极的财政政策基调以及中央预算稳定调节基金的特点，2026年存在小幅提高赤字率的可能性，同时综合 考虑结转结余，则2026年广义财政力度或将下降。预计2026年赤字率可能设定为4.0%—4.2%左右，对应赤字 规模为5.89万亿元至6.19万亿元，广义赤字规模约为11.79万亿元至12.09万亿元。 兴业证券首席经济学家王涵表示，此次会议仍将"扩大内需"工作放在首位，其次新增表述"优化供给"，"坚持 创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能"，相比于7月会议而言，此次会议将产业相关内容提 ...

Industry Overview Upstream - Copper and zinc prices have rebounded recently; chemical product prices are slightly fluctuating; international crude oil prices are rising, while liquefied natural gas prices are oscillating downward [2] Midstream - The operating rates of chemical products have collectively declined; the coal consumption of power plants is at the median level in three years; the operating rate of road asphalt has decreased [3] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third-tier cities have recently rebounded collectively; the number of domestic and international flights has decreased [4] Key Industry News Production Industry - Chinese official Ling Ji held video talks with German and European automobile industry associations, discussing China - Germany and China - Europe automobile industry and supply - chain cooperation, and hoping to resolve the electric vehicle anti - subsidy case [1] - On December 8, the National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices, benefiting private car owners and logistics enterprises [1] Service Industry - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 8, stating that in 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [1] Key Industry Price Indicators (as of December 8) Agriculture - The spot price of corn is 2238.6 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.58%; the spot price of eggs is 6.5 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.76%; the spot price of palm oil is 8726.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.65%; the spot price of cotton is 15033.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.36%; the average wholesale price of pork is 17.7 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year increase of 0.40% [36] Non - ferrous Metals - The spot price of copper is 92243.3 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 3.39%; the spot price of zinc is 23100.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 2.48%; the spot price of aluminum is 21933.3 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.89%; the spot price of nickel is 120400.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.19%; another spot price of aluminum is 17300.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.84% [36] Black Metals - The spot price of rebar is 3213.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.01%; the spot price of iron ore is 805.8 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.36%; the spot price of wire rod is 3395.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 1.80% [36] Others - The spot price of glass is 13.8 yuan/square meter, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.72%; the spot price of natural rubber is 14843.3 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.88%; the China Plastic City price index is 766.0, with a year - on - year increase of 0.05% [36] Energy - The spot price of WTI crude oil is 60.1 dollars/barrel, with a year - on - year increase of 2.61%; the spot price of Brent crude oil is 63.8 dollars/barrel, with a year - on - year increase of 2.20%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas is 3874.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.82%; the coal price is 809.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.98% [36] Chemicals - The spot price of PTA is 4687.8 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.32%; the spot price of polyethylene is 6845.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.87%; the spot price of urea is 1720.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 1.03%; the spot price of soda ash is 1205.7 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% [36] Real Estate and Building Materials - The national cement price index is 135.4, with a year - on - year increase of 0.01%; the building materials composite index is 115.5 points, with a year - on - year increase of 0.15%; the national concrete price index is 90.4 points, with a year - on - year increase of 0.00% [36]

融 期货研 2025年12月9日 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变动 | 持仓量 | 变动 | | 沪深300 | 4621.75 | 1 0. 81 | | 4967. 2 | | | | | | IF2512 | 4613. 2 | ↑ 0. 76 | -8. 55 | 1053. 1 | 76082 | ↓ 8672 | 132821 | ↓ 10475 | | IF2601 | 4597. 4 | 1 0. 84 | -24. 35 | 98. 9 | 7171 | ↑ 2166 | 12625 | ↑ 2113 | | IF2603 | 4576 | 1 0. 80 | -45.75 | 428. 4 | 31206 | ↑ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The Central Politburo meeting emphasized that the economic work in 2026 should adhere to making progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency, continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and enhance the integrated effect of existing and incremental policies [2]. - The import in China shows a certain repair trend, while the growth rate of exports has declined slightly in the past two months, which is in line with expectations due to the high base of exports in the same period last year, weak overseas demand, and the overdraft effect of pre - export on demand [3]. - The A - share market closed higher on the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.6% [4]. - The Central Economic Work Conference may maintain a moderately supportive tone in fiscal and monetary policies, increase support for innovative consumption, focus on the reform and re - balancing themes established in the new five - year plan, and reiterate the stability of the real estate market [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Policy - The 2026 fiscal policy may continue the high - financing trend of government bonds, and the deficit rate may increase. The monetary policy will focus on improving traditional mechanisms, and large - scale interest - rate cuts are expected to be cautious. There are policy expectations for promoting consumption, and innovation, people's livelihood, and green transformation will be long - term policy orientations [2]. - The Central Economic Work Conference may set the GDP growth target for 2026 in the range of 4.5% - 5%, and maintain a moderately supportive tone in fiscal and monetary policies, focusing on innovation, consumption, and real estate market stability [9]. 3.2 Trade Data - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's cumulative export in US dollars increased by 5.4% year - on - year, with a monthly increase of 5.9%. The cumulative increase in imports was - 0.6%, and the monthly increase was 1.9% [3]. 3.3 Financial Market - A - share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.39%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.6%, and the two - market trading volume increased by 3108.75 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day [4]. - International market: The South Korean Composite Index rose 1.34%, the Wande All - A Index rose 1.04%, the Russian RTS Index fell 1.75%, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.23%, the US three major stock indexes closed down, the German DAX rose slightly by 0.07%, the French CAC40 fell slightly by 0.08%, and the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.23% [4]. - Interest rates: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.8526%, with a change of + 0.4BP, and the average prices of inter - bank R001 and R007 on the day were 1.3718% and 1.4940% respectively [5]. 3.4 Real Estate Market - In November, the sales volume of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 33% year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline in the first 6 days of December was 34%. The contract sales volume of top - 100 developers in November decreased by 37% year - on - year, and the number of second - hand housing listings in 50 cities increased by 10% year - on - year [7]. - Vanke is seeking bondholders' approval to postpone the repayment of two domestic bonds worth 200 million yuan and 370 million yuan respectively, and the bondholders' meetings are scheduled for December 10 and 22 [8]. - UBS expects that in November, the year - on - year decline in real estate sales will expand (down 20 - 25% year - on - year), and real estate investment will continue to contract deeply (down 23% year - on - year) [10]. 3.5 Economic Forecast - UBS expects that in 2026, the GDP growth target will be in the range of 4.5% - 5%, and the GDP growth rate will fall to 4.5%. The Central Economic Work Conference may maintain a moderately supportive tone in fiscal and monetary policies [9]. - For the November official data, UBS expects that real estate sales will decline more, real estate investment will contract deeply, infrastructure investment decline will narrow slightly, retail and export sales will improve slightly, industrial production growth will slow down, official social financing and credit growth may slightly decrease, CPI may improve, and PPI decline may narrow slightly [10].

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货12月8日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2512 | 112.730 | 112.600 | 112.300 | 112.300 | -0.430 | -0.38 | 132 | 5681 | -590 | | TL2603 | 112.570 | 112.410 | 112.240 | 112 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Views - Platinum has not escaped the volatile range yet [1] - Palladium shows a significant bottom rise in the technical dimension [2] Group 3: Fundamental Tracking Price - Platinum futures 2606 closed at 443.20 with a 0.20% increase, and the gold exchange platinum closed at 435.30 with a 0.00% increase. The New York platinum main contract closed at 1662.00 with a 0.42% increase, and the London spot platinum closed at 1651.40 with a 1.00% increase [2] - Palladium futures 2606 closed at 383.70 with a 0.51% increase. The New York palladium main contract closed at 1517.50 with a 1.97% - 3.06% increase, and the London spot palladium closed at 1475.00 with a 1.23% increase [2] Trading Volume and Position - The trading volume of Guangzhou platinum was 10,041, an increase of 1,533 from the previous day, and the position was 12,865. The trading volume of NYMEX platinum was 24,655, an increase of 1,820, and the position was 61,853, a decrease of 1,473 [2] - The trading volume of Guangzhou palladium was 5,061, an increase of 371, and the position was 3,567, an increase of 220. The trading volume of NYMEX palladium was 3,606, a decrease of 788, and the position was 19,292, an increase of 85 [2] ETF Position - The platinum ETF position (ounces) was 3,124,461 the previous day, with no change. The palladium ETF position (ounces) was 1,093,932 the previous day, with no change [2] Inventory - The inventory of Guangzhou platinum (kilograms) remained unchanged. The NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces) the previous day was 614,713, a decrease of 235. The inventory of Guangzhou palladium (kilograms) remained unchanged, and the NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces) the previous day was 176,705, an increase of 4,315 [2] Spread - The spread between PT9995 and PT2606 was -7.90, a decrease of 0.92 from the previous day. The spread between the Guangzhou platinum 2606 contract and the 2610 contract was -0.45, an increase of 0.60 [2] - The spread between the gold exchange platinum and London platinum was 59.86, a decrease of 3.79. The spread between the RMB spot palladium price and PD2606 was -22, an increase of 5.05 [2] Exchange Rate - The US dollar index was 99.11, an increase of 0.12%. The US dollar against the onshore RMB (CNY spot) was 7.07, an increase of 0.01%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 7.07, an increase of 0.02%. The US dollar against the RMB (6M forward) was 6.98, a decrease of 0.26% [2] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - The hot candidate for the Fed Chairman, Hassett, stated that the future path should not be announced in advance and reiterated data dependence [5] - The Russian Deputy Prime Minister announced that gold bar exports will be restricted starting from 2026 [5] - OpenAI reported that ChatGPT currently serves over 800 million users per week [5] - NVIDIA will provide H200 to commercial customers approved by the US Department of Commerce [5] - The China Passenger Car Association reported that the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in November were 2.225 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1% [5] - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 8, stating that a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented [5] Group 5: Trend Intensity - Platinum trend intensity: 0; Palladium trend intensity: 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]