Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing efforts of China's macroeconomic policies to support economic stability and growth amid complex external challenges, emphasizing the role of structural monetary policy tools in targeting specific sectors and weaknesses in the economy [1][2]. Group 1: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - Structural monetary policy tools are highlighted as essential for providing precise support to specific economic sectors and weak links, with a focus on technology innovation and consumption [1][2]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to create new loans for consumption and elderly care, increase the quotas for technology innovation and agricultural loans by 300 billion yuan each, and reduce interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points [1][2]. - By May 2025, loans for technology innovation and technological transformation are expected to reach 1.7 trillion yuan, which is 1.9 times the amount at the end of 2024, indicating the effectiveness of these tools [2]. Group 2: Financing Costs and Economic Support - The average interest rate for new corporate loans from January to June was approximately 3.3%, down about 45 basis points from the previous year, while personal housing loan rates were around 3.1%, down about 60 basis points [2][3]. - The PBOC aims to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy by improving the transmission of monetary policy and reducing overall financing costs, particularly focusing on non-interest costs such as collateral and intermediary service fees [3][4]. Group 3: Liquidity Management - The PBOC has lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, and has maintained a stable liquidity supply through various monetary policy tools [4][5]. - The expectation is that the PBOC will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, utilizing reverse repos and other tools to ensure ample liquidity for government bond issuance and credit support [4][5].

Group 1: Core View - Today, all treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated. Since July, the market interest rate has rebounded significantly, and the anchoring effect of the policy rate has emerged. Coupled with the policy emphasis on implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, the policy rate has fallen from a high level, and treasury bond futures have bottomed out and rebounded. However, the current trading volume of the stock market is at a high quantile, indicating a strong risk appetite in the stock market. Funds are flowing into the stock market, and the demand for treasury bonds has decreased, which restricts the upward space of treasury bond futures. In general, treasury bond futures will maintain a range-bound oscillation in the short term [2] Group 2: Industry News and Related Charts - On August 5th, the People's Bank of China announced that it conducted 160.7 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate through quantity tender. Both the bid volume and winning bid volume were 160.7 billion yuan, and the operating interest rate was 1.40%. Today, 449.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 288.5 billion yuan on the day [4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support technological innovation, boost consumption, assist small and micro enterprises, stabilize foreign trade, deepen financial reform, and enhance high-level opening-up, while also preventing and mitigating financial risks in key areas to promote high-quality economic development [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - The PBOC will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various monetary policy tools to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to ensure reasonable credit growth [2]. - The execution of monetary policy measures will be emphasized to ensure smooth transmission of monetary policy [2]. Group 2: Support for the Real Economy - The PBOC aims to focus on serving the real economy, particularly through financial support for technology innovation and technical transformation, promoting rapid growth in loans to technology-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises [2]. - Increased financing support will be directed towards key areas such as "two new" and "two heavy" sectors, while ensuring reasonable financing needs for foreign trade enterprises [2]. Group 3: Financial Risk Management - The PBOC will continue to support local government financing platform debt management and orderly advance risk disposal in key regions and institutions [2]. - Enhanced risk monitoring, assessment, and macro-prudential management will be prioritized to prevent and mitigate financial risks in key areas [2]. Group 4: Internationalization of the Renminbi - The PBOC plans to accelerate the use of the Renminbi in trade, enhance its financing currency function, and optimize policies for domestic and foreign currency integration [2]. - The construction of a "technology board" in the bond market and the use of risk-sharing tools for technology innovation bonds will be promoted, along with expanding the issuance scale of technology innovation bonds [2]. Group 5: Financial Market Reform and Opening-up - The PBOC will advance the construction of a "technology board" in the bond market and improve the institutional framework for financial markets and infrastructure [3]. - Reforms in trade foreign exchange business management will be actively promoted to facilitate cross-border investment and financing [3]. Group 6: International Financial Cooperation - The PBOC will deepen bilateral and multilateral international monetary and financial cooperation, actively participate in global financial governance, and promote global macro policy coordination [3]. - The PBOC will also engage in the formulation of international financial rules and continue to push for reforms in the International Monetary Fund's quota system [3]. Group 7: Financial Management and Service Improvement - The PBOC will research and compile the "14th Five-Year" reform and development plan, focusing on the implementation of key tasks for building a digital central bank [3]. - Efforts will be made to promote the infrastructure construction and application of digital Renminbi [3].

Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The State Council has approved the implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative, aiming to promote the large-scale commercial application of AI across various sectors, fostering a virtuous cycle of innovation and application [8] - The National Childcare Subsidy Scheme was announced, providing annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child for infants under three years old, starting from January 1, 2025 [6][7] - The central government plans to allocate approximately 90 billion yuan for the Childcare Subsidy Scheme, marking a significant step in direct cash benefits for the public [8] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In July, China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [12][13] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were reported at 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both remaining above the expansion threshold despite slight declines [12][13] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China has committed to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing growth, ensuring employment, and promoting livelihoods [10] - The central bank aims to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission and improve the efficiency of fund utilization, while also managing exchange rate stability [10] Group 4: U.S. Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls data for July showed a significant drop, with only 73,000 jobs added, far below the expected 110,000, and previous months' data was revised down by 258,000 [11] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the labor force participation rate fell to 62.2%, the lowest in nearly three years, raising concerns about a potential economic recession [11]

Group 1: Policy and Market News - Since August 8, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation will resume levying VAT on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds, while the interest income of bonds issued before August 8 and subsequent issuances will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity [1] - The US added only 73,000 non - farm jobs in July, the lowest in 9 months, far below the expected 110,000, with the previous two months' data revised down by 258,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, indicating a sharp slowdown in the labor market [1] - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen the implementation and supervision of interest rate policies, and increase financing support for key areas [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a special energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry in 2025, involving 41 enterprises [1] - US President Trump signed an executive order to impose counter - tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on countries or regions that have not reached an agreement with the US, with the tariffs taking effect on August 7, 2025 [2] Group 2: Commodity Market - Key commodities to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, asphalt, crude oil, and coking coal [3] - Among commodity sectors, non - metallic building materials rose 2.83%, precious metals 27.61%, oilseeds 12.40%, non - ferrous metals 21.40%, soft commodities 2.58%, coal - coking - steel - mining 14.32%, energy 3.18%, chemicals 11.74%, grains 1.16%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.78% [6] Group 3: Stock and Bond Market - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37% daily and monthly, but rose 6.21% annually; the SSE 50 fell 0.79% daily and monthly, and rose 2.58% annually; the CSI 300 fell 0.51% daily and monthly, and rose 3.05% annually [8] - Among other equity indices, the CSI 500 fell 0.21% daily and monthly, and rose 8.51% annually; the S&P 500 fell 1.60% daily and monthly, and rose 6.06% annually; the Hang Seng Index fell 1.07% daily and monthly, and rose 22.17% annually, etc. [9] - For fixed - income products, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.02% daily, 0.05% monthly, and 0.45% annually; the 5 - year Treasury bond futures had no daily and monthly change, and fell 0.77% annually; the 2 - year Treasury bond futures had no daily and monthly change, and fell 0.61% annually [9] - In the commodity market, the CRB commodity index fell 1.50% daily and monthly, and 0.49% annually; WTI crude oil fell 2.83% daily, 2.77% monthly, and 6.42% annually; London spot gold rose 2.22% daily and monthly, and 28.14% annually [9] - The US dollar index fell 1.36% daily and monthly, and 9.03% annually; the CBOE volatility index rose 21.89% daily and monthly, and 17.46% annually [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Monday, the RB2510 contract rebounded after hitting a low. The central bank plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, reducing the reserve - requirement ratio and using various monetary policy tools flexibly to maintain ample liquidity. The weekly output of rebar decreased slightly this period, with a low capacity utilization rate of 46.27%. Terminal demand was weak, apparent demand declined, and inventory increased. The market may fluctuate widely in a range, and technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows DIFF and DEA running below the 0 axis. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,204.00 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; RB main contract position: 1,742,635 lots, down 18,068 lots; RB contract top 20 net position: - 97,529 lots, down 12,574 lots; RB10 - 1 contract spread: - 67 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; RB SHFE warehouse receipt: 82,640 tons, down 2,394 tons; HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 213 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,370.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight): 3,456 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,400.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,280.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; RB main contract basis: 166.00 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 100.00 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 768.00 yuan/wet ton, down 2 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,365.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet: 3,050.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; 45 - port iron ore inventory: 136.579 million tons, down 1.3248 million tons; Sample coke - plant coke inventory: 462,800 tons, down 35,200 tons; Sample steel - mill coke inventory: 6.2678 million tons, down 132,200 tons; Tangshan billet inventory: 1.1102 million tons, up 41,000 tons; 247 steel - mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.48%, unchanged; 247 steel - mill blast furnace capacity utilization: 90.22%, down 0.56% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel - mill rebar output: 2.1106 million tons, down 9,000 tons; Sample steel - mill rebar capacity utilization: 46.27%, down 0.20%; Sample steel - mill rebar inventory: 1.6215 million tons, down 35,200 tons; 35 - city rebar social inventory: 3.8414 million tons, up 111,700 tons; Independent electric - arc furnace steel - mill operating rate: 69.79%, up 1.04%; Domestic crude steel output: 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons; Chinese rebar monthly output: 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons; Net steel export volume: 921,000 tons, down 89,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - National Real Estate Climate Index: 93.60, down 0.11; Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment: 2.80%, down 0.90%; Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment: - 11.20%, down 0.50%; Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment: 4.60%, down 1.00%; Cumulative floor area under construction: 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters; Cumulative new construction area: 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters; Commercial housing unsold area: 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. 4. Industry News - US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that the new round of tariffs imposed by US President Trump on multiple countries last week is "basically finalized" and will not be adjusted in current negotiations. - The US added 73,000 non - farm jobs in July, lower than the estimated 104,000 and the previous value of 147,000, the lowest in 9 months. After the release of the non - farm data, President Trump criticized Powell again and called for an interest - rate cut [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is promising, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [7]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [9]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, in the short term, they may continue to correct, and investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities after the correction [12]. - The supply and demand pattern of iron ore is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. After the short - term correction, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities [14]. - For coking coal and coke, in the short term, they may continue to fluctuate sharply, and investors can temporarily wait and see [17]. - In the short term, ferroalloys may continue to have oversupply, and after the decline, investors can consider low - level long - position opportunities when the spot falls into the loss range again [20]. - The crude oil market is complex and uncertain, and the main crude oil contract should be temporarily observed [21][22][23]. - The fuel oil market in Asia has sufficient supply, and the main fuel oil contract should be temporarily observed [25]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27]. - For natural rubber, after the correction, pay attention to long - position opportunities [29]. - PVC may fluctuate strongly in the short term [31]. - Urea may fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [33]. - PX may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and interval trading can be considered [35]. - PTA may have a correction risk in the short term and generally maintain a volatile operation, and interval trading can be considered [37]. - For ethylene glycol, in the short term, interval trading is the main strategy, and attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [38]. - Short - fiber may follow the cost to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [39]. - Bottle - chip is expected to follow the cost to fluctuate, and risk control should be noted [41]. - The soda ash market may continue to adjust at a high level in supply, and the price may be under pressure [42]. - For glass, it should be treated with caution, and attention should be paid to spot trade and regional destocking [44]. - The caustic soda market is gradually returning to the fundamental logic, and the price may be affected by supply and demand [47]. - The pulp market has supply pressure, and the price may fluctuate and organize [49]. - For lithium carbonate, it is advisable to watch more and trade less and control risks [52]. - For copper, pay attention to short - position opportunities [54]. - Tin is expected to fluctuate [58]. - Nickel is expected to fluctuate [59]. - For soybean meal, consider long - position opportunities in the support range after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider taking profits when the price rises to a high level [60][61][62]. - Consider long - position opportunities for palm oil [63]. - Consider long - position opportunities for rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [66]. - For cotton, it is recommended to go short after a rebound [68]. - Sugar is recommended to be observed, and it may run in an interval [71]. - For apples, go short after a rebound [75]. - For live pigs, consider gradually taking profits on previous short positions [77]. - For eggs, consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [80]. - For corn, consider virtual call option opportunities in the low - level interval of the near - month contract; corn starch follows the corn market [82]. - For logs, the market may be driven by relevant policies, and the inventory is slightly destocked [86]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, the closing performance of treasury bond futures was divided. The central bank carried out 126 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 663.3 billion yuan on the same day. The central bank requires to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The US non - farm data was poor, and the treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend market and should be treated with caution [5][6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures rose and fell differently. The government will resume levying VAT on the interest income of newly issued bonds after August 8, 2025. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is promising, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [7]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures had different performances. The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold - buying behavior, and the expected Fed rate cut are favorable for the long - term bullish trend of precious metals, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [9]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. Policy expectations dominate the short - term market, and in the medium term, the price will return to the supply - demand logic. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the rebar price. Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities after the correction [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and sorted out. Policy expectations affect the market, and the supply - demand pattern is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. After the short - term correction, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The limit - position measure of the Dalian Commodity Exchange is the direct cause of the decline. In the medium term, the price will return to the supply - demand logic. Investors can temporarily wait and see [17]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The supply of manganese ore has increased recently, and the supply of ferroalloys is still high while the demand is weak. After the decline, investors can consider low - level long - position opportunities when the spot falls into the loss range again [19][20]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated downward. The CFTC data shows changes in the net long positions of speculators. The Baker Hughes report shows a decrease in the number of oil and gas rigs. The OPEC + meeting may increase production in September. The market is complex and uncertain, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [21][22][23]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated in an interval. A large amount of fuel oil is expected to arrive in Asia in August, resulting in sufficient supply in the Asian market. The main contract should be temporarily observed [25]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The raw material price has rebounded, and the supply and demand situation has changed. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The macro - market sentiment has cooled down, and the supply - side disturbance has temporarily slowed down. After the correction, pay attention to long - position opportunities [29]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. In the short term, it may fluctuate strongly. The production has decreased slightly, and the demand is weak [31]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures fell. The supply is still high, and the demand of downstream products has increased. It may fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [33]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The supply and demand are in a tight balance in the short term, and the cost support of crude oil has weakened. It may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and interval trading can be considered [35]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply changes little in the short term, the demand is expected to weaken, and the cost support of crude oil has weakened. It may have a correction risk and maintain a volatile operation, and interval trading can be considered [36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply pressure has increased, but the inventory has decreased and is at a low level. In the short term, interval trading is the main strategy, and attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [38]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply has increased, and the demand is general. It may follow the cost to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [39]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The number of device overhauls has increased, and the demand of downstream products has increased. It is expected to follow the cost to fluctuate, and risk control should be noted [41]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. The production has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. The downstream glass supply has changed. The supply may continue to adjust at a high level, and the price may be under pressure [42]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line is stable, and the destocking speed has increased. The market sentiment has cooled down, and it should be treated with caution. Attention should be paid to spot trade and regional destocking [44]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the market is gradually returning to the fundamental logic. The price may be affected by supply and demand [47]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The supply has an expansion tendency, and the demand of downstream products is weak. The "anti - involution" policy sentiment has cooled down, and the price may fluctuate and organize [49]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The supply is still high, and the demand has improved, but the trading is still cold. The supply of the ore end is uncertain, and it is advisable to watch more and trade less and control risks [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated upward. The US tariff policy and supply - demand factors affect the copper price. The copper price is in a downward trend in the interval, and pay attention to short - position opportunities [54]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The supply of the ore end is tight, and the consumption is in the off - season. The inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate [58]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose slightly. The price of the ore end has weakened, and the demand of downstream products is not optimistic. The inventory is relatively high, and it is expected to fluctuate [59]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The weather in the main production areas is suitable, and the market has good expectations for a bumper harvest. The inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the inventory pressure of soybean oil is emerging. For soybean meal, consider long - position opportunities in the support range after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider taking profits when the price rises to a high level [60][61][62]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil futures were affected by the exchange rate and tariff policies. The export volume in July decreased, and the domestic inventory has increased. Consider long - position opportunities [63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures fell. The domestic import volume of rapeseed and its products has changed. The inventory situation is different. Consider long - position opportunities [66]. Cotton - Domestic and foreign cotton futures fell. The US cotton production and inventory are expected to increase, and the domestic production is expected to increase. The global supply and demand are expected to be loose, and it is recommended to go short after a rebound [68]. Sugar - Domestic and foreign sugar futures had different performances. The sugar production in Brazil has accelerated, and Thailand and India are expected to have a bumper harvest. The domestic inventory is low, and the import volume is high. It is recommended to observe, and it may run in an interval [71]. Apples - Domestic apple futures fell. The expected reduction in production has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly. Go short after a rebound [75]. Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs fell. The supply has increased, and the demand is weak in the off - season. Consider gradually taking profits on previous short positions [77]. Eggs - The price of eggs fell. The inventory of laying hens is increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. Consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [80]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn and corn starch futures fell. The US and Brazilian corn are expected to have a bumper harvest. The domestic supply and demand are approaching balance, and the inventory pressure has decreased. For corn, consider virtual call option opportunities in the low - level interval of the near - month contract; corn starch follows the corn market [82]. Logs - Log futures fell. The import volume from New Zealand has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The relevant policy may drive the market [86].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The financial support for the continuous improvement of the economy has increased. China's central bank implements a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to maintain ample liquidity and promote a decline in financial market interest rates and social comprehensive financing costs [2]. - The US labor market has slowed down rapidly, with the July non - farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, and the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.2%, which may trigger new recession concerns [3]. - The real estate industry policy implementation rhythm is expected to accelerate, and the policy flexibility of first - tier cities and core areas may exceed expectations [29]. - The macro - policy may focus more on monetary policy relaxation in the third quarter, considering the low possibility of short - term fiscal incremental policies [29]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices had a year - on - year quarterly increase of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1]. - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month [1]. - In June 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.0%, 4.6%, and 8.3% respectively, with M1 and M2 showing significant increases compared to the same period last year [1]. 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - China's central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of 2025, including reducing the deposit reserve ratio and lowering policy interest rates [2]. - The US President Trump modified "reciprocal tariffs" for dozens of countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%, and postponed the effective date to August 7 [2]. Metals - The price of tungsten has reached a new high due to supply contraction and an increase in long - term contract prices. In the past two weeks, the price of black tungsten concentrate has risen by 7.82% to 193,000 yuan/ton, and the price of ammonium paratungstate has risen by 7.95% to 285,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Three major steel enterprises jointly opposed the speculation of high molybdenum prices, as the profit of the industrial chain is highly concentrated in the mining end [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The China Coking Industry Association decided to raise the price of coke on July 31, with different price increases for different types of coke [9]. - In July 2025, India's coal production was 46.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16%; sales were 53.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11% [9]. Energy and Chemicals - China plans to reform the pricing mechanism of provincial natural gas pipelines, transitioning from "one - line, one - price" and "one - enterprise, one - price" to regional pricing or unified provincial pricing [11]. - OPEC+ core members will decide whether to fully exit the 2.2 million barrels per day crude oil production cut plan in September or take a more cautious approach [12]. Agricultural Products - On August 3, the average price of live pigs was 14.29 yuan/kg, with a daily decline of 0.01 yuan/kg. The price increase at the beginning of the month failed to meet expectations [14]. - On August 1, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.60 yuan/kg, a 1.3% decrease from July 25 [15]. 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - This week, 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will expire. Last week, the central bank conducted 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 6.9 billion yuan [16]. Important News and Information - Starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value - added tax [17]. - The central bank requires steady and solid progress in the internationalization of the RMB, including expanding the use of RMB in trade and enhancing its financing currency function [19]. Bond Market Summary - China's bond market showed narrow - range fluctuations, with treasury bond futures rising and falling unevenly, and the yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market fluctuating within 1 bp [23]. Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.2106 against the US dollar on August 4, down 176 basis points from the previous trading day [28]. Research Report Highlights - CICC Fixed Income believes that the policy focus will shift from fiscal to monetary policy in the second half of the year, and monetary policy relaxation will help reduce the fiscal interest burden [29]. - Huatai Securities believes that the policy implementation rhythm of the real estate industry is expected to accelerate, and the policy flexibility of first - tier cities may exceed expectations [29]. 4. Stock Market Important News - The new - share market of the Beijing Stock Exchange continues to be booming. The first - day increase of Dingjia Precision on July 31 was 479.12%, and the funds frozen in the online subscription exceeded 60 billion yuan for the first time [33]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's IPO pricing mechanism has been reformed, with new rules taking effect on August 4, including optimizing the new - share allocation ratio and reducing the public shareholding threshold [34].

8月1日，中国人民银行召开2025年下半年工作会议暨常态长效推动中央巡视整改工作推进会。会议要 求，落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等，进一步深 化金融改革和高水平对外开放，防范化解重点领域金融风险，扎实做好下半年各项重点工作，推动经济 高质量发展。 会议关于"落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等"的表 述，与7月30日召开的中央政治局会议定调保持一致。对下一阶段货币政策，会议明确，继续实施好适 度宽松的货币政策。综合运用多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，引导金融机构保持信贷合理增长， 使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 "2025年上半年，为应对潜在关税冲击、提振国内需求、促进物价温和回升，我国宏观调控力度加大， 货币政策适度宽松，并根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，相机抉择，灵活把握政策实施的 力度和节奏，进一步提高政策调控的前瞻性、针对性和有效性。"中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表 示。 下半年，市场预期金融总量增长有望保持平稳。在流动性方面，当前，央行流动性工具箱丰富，期限分 布更 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance of the industry index to exceed the CSI 300 index by more than 5% within the next six months [41]. Core Insights - The State Council has deployed interest subsidy policies for personal consumption loans and service industry operating loans, aiming to enhance credit support for consumption and stimulate market vitality [4][16]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has reiterated its commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on supporting technological innovation, boosting consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade [5][22]. - The PBOC has introduced the "Financial Infrastructure Supervision and Management Measures," which will enhance regulatory oversight and risk management within the financial system starting from October 1, 2025 [6][24]. Summary by Sections Key Focus - The State Council's meeting on July 31 emphasized the need to implement interest subsidy policies for personal consumption loans and service industry loans to lower financing costs and stimulate consumption potential [4][16]. - The PBOC's meeting on August 1 confirmed the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on supporting various sectors including small and micro enterprises [5][22]. Industry Data - The banking, securities, insurance, and fintech indices experienced changes of -0.84%, -3.22%, -0.15%, and -2.34% respectively, with the CSI 300 index down by 1.75% [25]. - The average daily trading volume for stock funds was 22,846 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.3% decrease from the previous week [34]. - The ten-year government bond yield decreased by 2.65 basis points, indicating a downward trend in interest rates [37].