Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the market is fully pricing in the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month, with a significant possibility of a 50 basis point reduction due to weak employment data [2][3] - The probability of a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting has risen to nearly 100%, with expectations for a total reduction of 75 basis points this year exceeding 50% [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra suggests that the current monetary policy is overly restrictive, advocating for a reduction of 150 to 175 basis points, which aligns with the Federal Reserve's neutral rate [3] Group 2 - Market focus is shifting to the upcoming retail sales data, which is expected to show a 0.5% month-on-month increase for July, reflecting changes in the labor market [4] - The list of potential successors for Federal Reserve Chair Powell has expanded to 11 candidates, indicating ongoing considerations for leadership changes within the Federal Reserve [5][6] - Some Federal Reserve policymakers are leaning towards a more dovish stance, with discussions around the possibility of multiple rate cuts this year, although caution remains among others regarding inflation targets [6][7]

Group 1 - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has reached 100%, with expectations for a 50 basis point cut rather than the traditional 25 basis points due to weak employment data [1][2] - Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, have adjusted their forecasts, moving the timeline for the Fed's first rate cut to September, with a probability of a total cut of 75 basis points for the year exceeding 50% [2] - The recent employment report showed a downward revision of over 250,000 jobs compared to earlier estimates, reinforcing the argument for a significant rate cut [2] Group 2 - The market is now focused on the upcoming retail sales data, which is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.5% for July, down 0.1 percentage points from June [3] - The retail sales figures will serve as a critical indicator for assessing the resilience of the U.S. economy, with any disappointing data potentially increasing pressure for a shift in monetary policy [3] Group 3 - The list of potential successors to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell has expanded to 11 candidates, indicating ongoing considerations within the Trump administration for leadership changes at the Fed [4][5] - Notable candidates include Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman, and Dallas Fed President Logan, among others [5] - Recent comments from Fed policymakers suggest a shift towards a more dovish stance, with some members indicating support for rate cuts due to concerns over employment and economic conditions [5][6] Group 4 - Economic analysts suggest that the Fed's decision in September will depend on further labor market weakness and moderate inflation related to tariffs [6] - Current economic conditions are compared to last year's pre-rate cut environment, with signs of cooling in the economy and potential job market pressures [6] - The complexity of the current economic environment, influenced by tariff-related price increases, may lead the Fed to adopt a preemptive rate cut strategy if labor market conditions continue to deteriorate [6]

基本面： 操作思路： 3335--3385区间震荡参与，止损8美元，目标20--30美元 美元指数在通胀数据出炉后全线下跌，盘中最低触及97.89，为7月28日以来新低。这一走软直接受益于温和通胀对降息预期的支撑，同时受到了澳洲联储降 息预期以及英国就业数据强劲的双重影响。通胀的温和走势缓解了市场对关税政策可能推高物价的担忧，尽管特朗普政府曾多次强调关税的影响，但数据显 示其传导效应有限。这为黄金提供了支撑，因为在通胀未失控的环境下，投资者更倾向于将资金转向黄金，以对冲潜在的经济下行风险。通胀数据的公布直 接强化了市场对美联储9月降息的押注。根据芝商所的FedWatch工具，交易员们将9月16日至17日会议上降息的可能性从周一的86%提升至94%。 另外，中美两国将关税休战期延长90天，至11月10日，避免了对彼此商品征收大幅关税，这一消息虽被货币市场基本忽略，却为黄金市场注入了稳定因素。 此前，华盛顿对进口金条征收关税的报道曾推动美国期金在上周五创下历史新高，但特朗普在社交媒体上明确表示不会对进口金条征税，导致周一金价下跌 超过2%。如今，休战延长期的决定缓解了贸易紧张局势，减少了通胀上行的潜在风险。 整体 ...

美联储降息预期升温，黄金多头信心满满通胀数据的公布直接强化了市场对美联储9月降息的押注。9月 16日至17日会议上降息的可能性从周一的86%提升至94%。这一预期源于就业数据的疲软延续——7月 新增就业岗位少于预期，且前几个月数据被大幅下修——加上通胀的稳定表现，给美联储提供了足够的 政策空间。，基本通胀依然低迷，这为应对劳动力市场疲软迹象预留了回旋余地。他进一步预测，美联 储主席鲍威尔将在本月晚些时候的杰克森霍尔经济研讨会上明确提及9月降息的可能性。对于黄金而 言，降息预期是强劲的催化剂，因为较低的利率会削弱美元的吸引力，并降低持有黄金的机会成本。历 史上，每当美联储进入宽松周期，黄金往往迎来一轮上涨行情。此次数据公布后，交易员们维持了对9 月和12月降息的押注，这让黄金的多头力量得以积聚，尽管短期内市场保持谨慎，等待更多经济指标的 验证。 美国7月份消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比涨幅为2.7%，基本符合市场预期，却略低于部 分经济学家的预测。这一数据继6月份0.3%的涨幅后显示出通胀压力的缓和迹象，特别是核心CPI（扣 除食品和能源）环比上涨0.3%，同比达3.1%，为今年1月以来的最大涨 ...

Core Insights - The recent U.S. inflation data shows a mixed picture with the overall CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.8% [1] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 3.0%, marking the highest level since February [1][2] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September surged to 98% [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggested that the Fed should consider a larger rate cut of 50 basis points in the upcoming decision [2] - Analysts predict a total of six rate cuts by the Fed, with three expected this year and one each quarter next year, ultimately bringing the rate down to 3% [2] Stock and Commodity Movements - U.S. stock markets rallied, with the S&P reaching a historical high, while the dollar index and 10-year Treasury yields declined [4] - Gold experienced volatility post-CPI data, remaining within a trading range of $3330 to $3360 [4][5] Gold Market Analysis - After a significant drop in gold prices, the market showed reduced volatility, with trading primarily around $3350 [5] - The outlook for gold suggests a challenging environment for bulls, with potential downward targets set at $3330, $3315, and ultimately $3245 [7] - Short-term strategies indicate a focus on buying on dips while maintaining short positions at higher levels [10] Silver Market Insights - Silver showed stronger rebound potential compared to gold, with a focus on short positions after a brief rally [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the July CPI data in the U.S., indicating a slight decrease in inflation compared to expectations, which increases the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September [3][8]. Summary by Sections U.S. July CPI Data - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July showed a seasonally adjusted month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly below market expectations of 0.2% and 2.8% respectively [3]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, compared to expectations of 0.3% and 3% [3]. Factors Influencing CPI - The primary driver for the CPI increase was a 0.2% rise in housing costs, while food prices remained stable and energy prices fell by 1.1% [7]. - Prices for used cars and trucks increased by 0.5%, while new car prices remained unchanged [7]. Market Reactions - Following the CPI report, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and stock index futures rose, indicating market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [8][11]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is now close to 90%, up from 74% prior to the report [11]. Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the inflation data may allow the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy, with some predicting a significant cut of 50 basis points due to concerns over the labor market [11]. - The article highlights that while tariffs have an impact, the overall inflation pressure appears manageable, which is seen as a positive signal for the Federal Reserve [11].

有迹象显示，随着大体温和的美国7月通胀报告，增强了交易员押注美联储会很快降息的信心。美联储9 月议息会议的悬念，已开始逐渐从"是否降息"变为了"降息多少"…… 一些业内人士眼下甚至已更为看好美联储届时大幅下调利率的可能性。而美国财长贝森特隔夜的一番鸽 派言辞施压，也可能进一步加剧美联储内部的博弈。 贝森特周二表示，他希望参议院能够在9月下次会议之前，确认现任白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米 兰填补美联储理事会的临时空缺。 市场对美联储大手笔降息的押注升温 从美国固收市场的变动看，数周以来，投资者也已不断涌入掉期、期权和直接做多美国国债的仓位，押 注美联储能在未来几个月降低借贷成本。 他们的预测在周二得到了初步证实：与利率预期关联最紧密的2年期美债收益率，在7月温和的通胀数据 公布后下跌4个基点至3.73%，而掉期交易员则将9月降息的概率上调到了90%以上。 根据美国劳工统计局的数据，7月剔除食品和能源的美国核心CPI环比上涨0.3%。这一数据与经济学家 的预测一致，整体CPI的环比涨幅也符合预期。 "或许仅仅是通胀数据未出现意外上行，就足以让市场继续预期更多降息，"CreditSights投资级和宏观经 济策 ...

纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价12日下跌5.1美元，收于每盎司3399.6美 元，跌幅为0.15%。 短期期货交易商小幅获利了结，金价当天小幅下跌。美国股市上涨也打压金价。当天公布的美国通胀数 据接近市场预期，但未完全落入美国货币政策鸽派阵营，黄金市场已从隔夜低点大幅反弹，目前交易大 致处于中性区域。 技术层面，12月黄金期货多头近期拥有稳固的整体技术优势。 当天9月交割的白银期货价格上涨15.3美分，收于每盎司37.940美元，涨幅为0.40%。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 市场一直押注美联储将在9月17日货币政策会议上降息25个基点。一些分析人士甚至认为，当天温和的 通胀数据可能为美联储在9月份降息50个基点开绿灯。 美国总统特朗普11日表示，美国不会对黄金进口征收关税。特朗普政府关于黄金关税的决定在过去两个 交易日引发了黄金市场的动荡。 特朗普12日在社交媒体发帖督促美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔立即降息，"他总是'太晚'，造成的损失是无 法估量的。"特朗普说，"正在考虑允许 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by U.S. inflation data, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and U.S.-China tariff policies, which collectively support gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3]. Fundamental Analysis - U.S. inflation data for July shows a Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase of 0.2% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, aligning with market expectations. Core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, marking the largest increase since January, indicating easing inflation pressures that support the Fed's potential rate cuts and bolster gold prices [2]. - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have increased, with the likelihood rising from 86% to 94%. Lower interest rates diminish the dollar's appeal and reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, thus favoring gold price increases [2]. - The U.S. and China have extended their tariff truce for 90 days until November 10, alleviating trade tensions and reducing potential inflationary pressures, which enhances gold's attractiveness as a hedge against geopolitical risks [2]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a significant drop on Monday, erasing all gains from the previous week, with bearish signals emerging. Tuesday's trading entered a corrective phase, resembling patterns from mid-June. The short-term outlook remains weak, with a focus on whether the downward trend will continue [3]. - In the short-term structure, gold is currently in a C-3-3 downward phase. A critical support level is identified at 3331; if this level holds, a potential rebound may occur, with resistance levels at 3360/3361, 3370, and 3379/3380. Conversely, if the price breaks below 3331, further support levels to watch are 3322/3321 and 3310 [5].

深夜，美股全线大涨，中国资产爆发！ 截至12日收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨483.52点，收于44458.61点，涨幅为1.10%；标 准普尔500种股票指数上涨72.31点，收于6445.76点，涨幅为1.13%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨296.50点， 收于21681.90点，涨幅为1.39%，刷新历史收盘纪录。 同时，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超1%。热门中概股中，腾讯音乐收涨约12%，小米涨3.81%，Boss直 聘、阿里巴巴涨超3%，拼多多涨3%，网易涨1.6%。 消息面上，美国7月份通胀数据出炉，巩固了降息预期。 昨晚，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，7月美国CPI同比上涨2.7%，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格 后，7月核心CPI同比上涨3.1%。 观察人士指出，随着企业库存下降，更多承担了高关税的商品进入美国消费市场，逐步推高服装鞋帽、 家具和家居用品等类别产品的价格。 华尔街投行高盛预计，到今年12月时，美国核心CPI以及核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数的同比涨 幅都将升至3.3%的水平。目前，外界普遍预计美联储9月将大概率降息，主要原因是美国就业市场出现 降温迹象。不过，美联储官员仍然强 ...