Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for a conflict between the US and China, suggesting that if a war were to occur, it might take place in the US rather than in Asia or the Middle East [1][8][10] - It highlights the strategic maneuvers of the US, including the transfer of military resources to Asia and the portrayal of China as a threat to Taiwan, indicating a deliberate attempt to create a battleground in China’s vicinity [5][6][12] - The article points out that the US has historically avoided bringing conflict to its own territory, which could change if a direct confrontation with China occurs [3][8][10] Group 2 - The article emphasizes China's growing military capabilities and the recognition of this strength by other nations, including the US, which has led to increased caution from the US regarding direct military engagement [10][16] - It discusses the economic interdependence between the US and China, particularly in terms of market access and the importance of Chinese rare earth materials to US military technology [14][18] - The article concludes that despite the tensions, both nations need to address their issues through dialogue rather than conflict, as the current situation is largely a result of US actions [20][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market in the first half of 2025 showed lower volatility compared to last year. Although short - term factors may disrupt the rhythm, the market still develops around its fundamentals. The overall supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is difficult to change, with an oversupply situation. Before significant production cuts in the mining and lithium salt plants, the lithium carbonate market may continue the process of oscillating and bottom - hunting. The price is expected to range between 45,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton in the second half of 2025. For industrial customers and investment institutions, they can seize the staged downward market [6][23][24]. - On the supply side, there are disturbances in the mining end, but the over - capacity of lithium salt is still large. If the lithium price does not rebound significantly and remains below 70,000 yuan/ton for a long time in the second half of 2025, some high - cost mines and recycling enterprises are expected to gradually reduce production or exit, and new projects may be postponed. The total supply is expected to be 1.65 million tons of LCE, still in an oversupply pattern [8][24]. - On the demand side, new energy vehicles and energy storage are still the two main drivers of consumption growth. In 2024, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 12.888 million and 12.866 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 34.4% and 35.5%. In 2025, the domestic new energy vehicle production and sales data still maintained a high growth rate. It is expected that China's new energy vehicle sales will reach about 16.5 million in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 28%, and global sales will reach about 23 million, a year - on - year increase of 26%. In the energy storage sector, the growth rate is expected to remain high, with an annual year - on - year growth rate of about 40%. Overall, the consumption growth rate of lithium carbonate in 2025 is expected to be about 22% [9][10]. - In terms of balance, the oversupply situation will continue in the second half of 2025, and the inventory pressure will continue to increase. It is expected that the annual oversupply will be 210,000 tons of LCE [11][12]. - Regarding inventory, smelters contribute the main inventory increase, and attention should be paid to the delivery inventory. It is expected that the lithium salt inventory will continue to accumulate in the second half of the year [13]. - Conclusion: The lithium carbonate price may continue to bottom - hunt. Although the supply - demand situation shows a double - increase pattern in 2025, the oversupply situation remains unchanged. Due to the price drop, the supply growth rate may slow down, and the degree of oversupply will decrease. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton in the second half of 2025 [14]. Section Summaries Strategy Summary - In the first quarter of 2025, lithium carbonate futures prices were relatively stable. The 2505 contract rebounded from 77,800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 81,680 yuan/ton, a 4.99% increase, and then fell to 74,160 yuan/ton. In the second quarter, due to the impact of the Sino - US tariff war, the demand growth rate declined, and the industry returned to the inventory accumulation rhythm. The 2507 contract fell from 74,500 yuan/ton in early April to the annual low of 58,460 yuan/ton, a 21.53% decrease. Later, with the extension of the US tariff exemption and the call to eliminate backward production capacity, the price rebounded to around 64,000 yuan/ton, a nearly 10% increase [5]. Price Review - In the first half of 2025, the lithium carbonate futures price first rose and then fell. In the first quarter, it was relatively stable. In the second quarter, it was affected by the Sino - US tariff war and demand slowdown, and the price dropped significantly. In June, with the relaxation of the tariff war and the support of energy storage exports, the price rebounded [5][22]. Market Outlook - In the second half of 2025, the overall supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is difficult to change, with an oversupply situation. The price is expected to range between 45,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton. If the lithium price does not rebound significantly, some high - cost mines and recycling enterprises may reduce production or exit, and new projects may be postponed [23][24]. Supply - side Situation - From January to June 2025, China's domestic lithium carbonate production was about 429,600 tons, a 43.91% year - on - year increase, and the annual production is expected to be about 900,000 tons, a 33% increase. Lithium hydroxide production was about 142,200 tons, a 18.56% year - on - year decrease. The overall production is expected to continue to increase. The over - capacity of lithium salt smelting is large, and some high - cost enterprises may reduce production or stop production [42]. Lithium Mine Production Cuts, Start - ups, and Cost Tracking - **Resource - end Increment**: In 2025, the total supply of the resource end is expected to be 1.57 million tons of LCE. Africa, domestic mines, and salt lakes, as well as South American salt lakes and Australian mines, will contribute to the increment [47]. - **Production Cost and Profit of Lithium Carbonate**: The cost of using salt lakes for production is relatively low, at 30,000 - 50,000 yuan/ton. Self - owned mine enterprises have a cash cost of 40,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing ore is relatively high, and most of the time this year, they are in a loss situation. It is expected that the global lithium mine oversupply situation will be difficult to change, and the lithium mine price may further decline [50][51]. Import - Export - From January to May 2025, China's lithium spodumene imports reached 2.92 million tons, a 39.97% year - on - year increase. Lithium carbonate imports were 100,000 tons, a 15.3% increase, and the annual import is expected to reach 250,000 tons. Exports were 2,100 tons, and the annual export is expected to be 4,000 tons. Lithium hydroxide exports were 21,600 tons, a 59.9% year - on - year decrease, and imports were 6,470 tons, with a significant year - on - year increase [61][63]. Consumption - side - **Lithium Consumption**: In 2025, lithium consumption is mainly driven by new energy vehicles and energy storage. From January to May, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased significantly, while the growth of ternary materials was limited. In the battery end, the sales and exports of power and other batteries increased significantly. In the new energy vehicle sector, production and sales maintained a high growth rate, and it is expected that China's new energy vehicle sales will reach about 16.5 million in 2025. In the energy storage sector, the growth rate is expected to remain high [72][74][77]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate is expected to have an annual oversupply of 60,000 tons, and the global lithium resource is expected to have an annual oversupply of 220,000 tons of LCE [107]. Inventory - As of the end of June, the total lithium carbonate inventory reached 136,800 tons, with smelters contributing the main increase. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate in the second half of the year [114].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and outlook of the Chinese economy, highlighting the impact of external factors such as the US-China trade war and domestic policy measures that have contributed to economic stability and growth. Group 1: Economic Performance - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year is expected to be around 5.3%, with a need for only 4.7% growth in the second half to meet the annual target [1] - The first quarter saw a GDP growth of 5.4%, while the second quarter is projected to be around 5.2% [2] - The overall economic performance is stable, with industrial value-added growth at 6.5% in the first quarter and service sector growth at 5.8% [5] Group 2: Export Dynamics - The export growth rate fluctuated due to the US-China tariff war, peaking at 12.3% in March before declining to 4.8% in May [2] - The share of exports to the US has decreased to the lowest level on record, impacting overall export performance [2] - The article anticipates a 2.0% growth in exports for the year, with various scenarios predicting outcomes ranging from 0% to 3.5% [10][11] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Policy Response - Domestic demand is gradually stabilizing due to proactive macroeconomic policies, including increased fiscal spending and monetary easing [3] - Social financing stock grew by 8.7% year-on-year in the first five months, with government bonds seeing a significant increase of 20.9% [3] - Retail sales growth reached 6.4% in May, driven by consumption policies such as the "old-for-new" program [3] Group 4: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% in the first five months, with infrastructure investment increasing by 5.6% [13] - Manufacturing investment is expected to grow by 7.8% for the year, while real estate investment is projected to decline by 10.0% [23][16] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to rebound in the second half, supported by ample funding and ongoing major projects [18][19] Group 5: Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is expected to grow by 4.5% for the year, with retail sales showing a recovery trend [27] - The "old-for-new" subsidy program has significantly boosted consumption in various sectors [28] - However, consumer confidence remains low, and spending may decline in the second half due to reduced subsidy support and economic uncertainties [29] Group 6: Price Trends - CPI is projected to remain around 0% for the year, with a slight recovery expected in the second half [31][32] - PPI is anticipated to decline by 2.3% for the year, reflecting ongoing pressures from oversupply and weak demand [34][35] Group 7: Policy Outlook - The article suggests that macroeconomic policies will focus on stabilizing growth without significant new stimulus, emphasizing the implementation of existing policies [37][38] - Fiscal policies will prioritize the effective use of existing funds to support consumption and investment [40][41] - Monetary policy is expected to remain flexible, with a focus on structural support rather than aggressive easing [42][43]

Group 1 - The "2025 China Enterprises Going Global Summit" was held in Shenzhen, focusing on providing a high-end platform for Chinese companies to tackle challenges in globalization amidst global industrial chain restructuring [1] - The theme of the summit was "For an Open World," aiming to facilitate resource connection and dialogue on rules among Chinese enterprises [1] Group 2 - Teng Binsheng, Vice Dean of the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business, described the current globalization process for Chinese enterprises as a "breakthrough battle," emphasizing the necessity for companies to "go out" due to intense internal competition [3] - He compared the global landscape to the late Zhou Dynasty or the Spring and Autumn period, indicating that the international frameworks represented by the WTO and the UN have been significantly weakened [3] - Teng highlighted the challenges faced by Chinese companies, using the example of the US-China tariff war, where tariffs on Chinese products increased by 30% during a 90-day equal tariff window, complicating the situation for Chinese enterprises [4]

半年度报告-PVC/烧碱 PVC：危中孕机，烧碱：宽幅震荡 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | PVC：震荡/烧碱：震荡 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 26 | 年 | 6 | 月 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★PVC：极低价格下，下半年 PVC 有望继续去库 上半年 PVC 虽然被资金大量空配，但极低价格下，需求的改善使 得其持续去库。展望下半年，PVC 供应端在新增产能投放下环比或 有 2%的增长。需求端大概率在 7 月中央经济工作会议之后迎来新 一轮的刺激政策，环比或能略有改善。若印度反倾销落地，会对中 国 PVC 出口造成一定的短期冲击，但长期不足以抵消中国 PVC 出 口的竞争力，下半年 PVC 出口有望继续维持高位。总的来看，若 下半年 PVC 仍维持极低价格，则其去库的格局有望延续。 能 源 ★烧碱：下半年供需变动有限 化 工 上半年烧碱价格先在氧化铝投产预期下暴涨，又在氧化铝亏损减仓 预期下暴跌，充分体现了其液体化工巨大的价格弹性。展望下半年， 新增产能的投放会使得烧碱供应略 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that the stock index will mainly show a range - bound oscillation in the short - term, with a mid - term upward trend. Yesterday, all stock indices rose unilaterally, and the market turnover increased. The market's risk preference has recovered due to the easing of geopolitical risks, but short - term policy signals are lacking, and external risks may cause some disturbances [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the mid - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias. The reference view is range - bound oscillation, and the core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, all stock indices rose unilaterally, and the total market turnover of the stock market was 1447.9 billion yuan, an increase of 301.1 billion yuan compared with the previous day [4]. - **Positive Factors**: Iran's acceptance of the cease - fire plan has eased geopolitical risks, and the market's risk preference has recovered. The main support for the market comes from the expected positive policies in the future due to weak credit and inflation data [4]. - **Negative Factors**: There is no incremental policy signal in the short - term, and it is necessary to wait for the policy guidance from the Politburo meeting in July. The implementation of the cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel is still uncertain, and external risks may affect the market's risk preference [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal is expected to be in a short - term range - bound and slightly bullish trend, influenced by factors such as low inventory of imported rapeseed, the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, and the trend of soybean meal. The future trend depends on policies and the movement of soybean meal [8][42][44]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. The annual rapeseed production in Canada has slightly decreased, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes. The global rapeseed production has slightly decreased due to lower output in the EU and Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict may support commodity prices [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal at oil mills. Bearish factors: The upcoming listing of domestic rapeseed in June; uncertainties in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Rapeseed Arrival**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in June was lower than expected, and the import cost was in a slightly bullish and volatile trend [18]. - **Oil Mill Operation and Inventory**: The rapeseed inventory at oil mills continued to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory slightly decreased to a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume at oil mills slightly decreased [21][23]. - **Rapeseed Meal Transaction**: Not provided in the given content - **Aquaculture**: The prices of aquatic fish fluctuated slightly, and the prices of shrimps and shellfish remained stable. China's aquatic product and fish production, shellfish and shrimp - crab production, and OECD's forecast of China's fish production and imports are presented, but no specific analysis is given [25][27][29]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [15][17]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal decreased, but capital inflows were observed [8]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Viewpoints and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal is in a short - term range - bound and slightly bullish trend. The low inventory of rapeseed meal and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes support the price, but the absence of additional tariffs on rapeseed imports limits the upside potential [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2620, and the basis is - 59, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [8]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory is 1.55 tons, a 18.42% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.9 tons and a 40.38% year - on - year decrease from last year's 2.6 tons, which is bullish [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward. The KDJ indicator is oscillating and falling from a high level, and the MACD is oscillating upward with a narrowing red energy bar. In general, the short - term trend is slightly bullish, but the future trend depends on policies and the movement of soybean meal [42]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short - term, the futures are expected to be slightly bullish. For the RM2509 contract, it is recommended to trade within the range above 2600 or wait and see. For options, sell slightly out - of - the - money put options on the 09 contract [12]. 7. Next Week's Focus Points - The most important factors are the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China. Secondary factors include domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, and the inventory of rapeseed meal at domestic oil mills and downstream procurement. Other factors include macro - economy and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45][46].

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for June 2025, with the 1-year LPR at 3% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, reflecting market expectations and the stability of policy rates [1][4]. Group 1: LPR and Monetary Policy - The LPR was last adjusted in May 2025, where both the 1-year and 5-year LPRs were reduced by 10 basis points [4]. - Factors influencing the stability of the LPR include the expectation of steady policy rates and ongoing pressure on bank interest margins [4][5]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the importance of a smooth monetary policy transmission mechanism and aims to lower the overall financing costs in the economy [5][6]. Group 2: Banking Sector Performance - As of the end of Q1 2025, the net interest margin of commercial banks has decreased to a historical low of 1.43%, down 9 basis points from the previous quarter [4]. - The decline in net interest margins across various types of banks indicates a challenging environment for profitability and growth [5]. - The pressure on banks' interest margins is expected to limit the potential for further LPR reductions in the near term [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The potential for further LPR adjustments in the second half of 2025 remains, with expectations of additional monetary easing depending on domestic and international economic conditions [5][6]. - The focus of future monetary policy may shift towards reducing non-interest costs and enhancing the overall financing environment for businesses and households [6].

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2 - Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is interval oscillation, the medium - term view is going up, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly. The policy - side positive expectations form strong support, but there are uncertainties from external factors such as the evolution after the end of the Sino - US tariff war suspension period and the Middle East geopolitical crisis [1][5] Group 3 - Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that the latest May credit data shows weak real - economy financing demand, so policy - side support is expected. The positive policy expectations strengthen the bottom support of the stock index. Also, there are high uncertainties from external factors, and the stock market risk preference is defensive. In the short term, the stock index will mainly oscillate in an interval, waiting for new driving forces [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年6月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230499 投资咨询证号：Z0000990 联系方式：0575-85229759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：6月首个交易日，债市窄幅波动，银行间主要利率债收益率多数小幅上行，国债期货收盘多数下跌。银行间市场资金面均衡偏松，主要回购加 权利率均有下行。中美关税战是一个长期的过程，短期的形势变化料不会明显影响债市预期；国内需要继续关注本月流动性情况、存单利率走向，以及政府 债供给等。 2、资金面：6月3日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了4545亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量4545亿元，中标量4545亿元。 Wind数据显示，当日8300亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼3755亿元。 3、基差：TS主力基差为-0.0741，现券贴水期货，偏空。TF主力基差为-0.0 ...