7月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比由降转涨，上涨0.4%；工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环 比降幅收窄0.2个百分点；货物贸易进出口同比增长6.7%，增速比6月快1.5个百分点…… 近期，多家外资金融机构表示，随着扩内需政策持续显效，各项措施加力，中国经济积极信号增多，凸 显韧性和活力。 国家统计局数据显示，7月份，扣除食品和能源价格，核心CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅为2024年3月以来最 高。家用器具、文娱耐用消费品等价格环比涨幅在0.5%至2.2%之间，飞机票、旅游、宾馆住宿和交通 工具租赁费价格环比涨幅均高于季节性水平。 核心CPI回升，反映扩内需政策持续显效。 近期，提振消费政策再加力。财政部等部门日前发布政策明确，个人消费贷款、服务业经营主体贷款可 享财政贴息。"在推动消费品'以旧换新'的同时，政策加力支持服务消费。育儿和养老等领域获得更多 资金支持，这将释放更多消费潜力。"汇丰银行"环球投资研究"团队发布的研报表示。 随着国内市场竞争秩序持续优化，部分行业价格降幅有所改善。7月份，煤炭开采、光伏设备及元器件 制造、水泥制造、锂电池制造价格环比降幅有所收窄。汇丰银行研报认为，目前PPI仍在 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Fundamentally, increased production in Inner Mongolia has led to a rise in output, and downstream silicon wafer production schedules continue to increase. In the short term, the lower limit is supported by cost and major manufacturers' price - holding, while the upper pressure mainly comes from downstream weakness and hedging. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price - PS2511 closed at 51,290 with a decline of 0.98% [1] - PS2508 closed at 51,500 with an increase of 1.97% [1] - PS2509 closed at 51,265 with a decline of 1.03% [1] - PS2510 closed at 51,375 with a decline of 0.94% [1] Spread - The spread between PS2508 and PS2509 is 235, with an increase of 1,530 [1] - The spread between PS2509 and PS2510 is - 110, with a decrease of 50 [1] - The spread between PS2510 and PS2511 is 85, with an increase of 25 [1] Spot Price - The average price of N - type dense material is 46, with a change of 0% [1] - The average price of N - type mixed material is 45, with a change of 0% [2] Inventory and Other Data - The weekly inventory of polysilicon is 23.30 million tons, an increase of 0.40 million tons [2] - The weekly inventory of silicon wafers is 0.96 GW, an increase of 19.11 GW [2] - The daily registered warehouse receipts are 210 tons, an increase of 5,150 tons [2]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-13 供给端的扰动再次引发价格普涨 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20640元/吨，较上一交易日变化10元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-30元/吨， 较上一交易日变化20元/吨；中原A00铝价20540元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化30元/吨至-130元/吨；佛 山A00铝价录20610元/吨，较上一交易日变化-10元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-55元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-08-12日沪铝主力合约开于20630元/吨，收于20735元/吨，较上一交易日变化60元/吨，最 高价达20740元/吨，最低价达到20585元/吨。全天交易日成交83080手，全天交易日持仓210986手。 铝合金成本利润：理论总成本20065元/吨，理论利润-165元/吨。 市场分析 库存方面，截止2025-08-12，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存58.7万吨，较上一期变化2.3吨，仓单库存48710 吨，较上一交易日变化378吨，LME铝库存477100吨，较上一交易日变化1250吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-08-12SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is becoming more rational, and the futures market trend is weakening. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3]. - The influence of sentiment on the futures market is still significant, and prices will remain volatile. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively in the short - term, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities [10]. - In the long - term, the prices of glass and soda ash are affected by the "anti - involution" logic, with their price centers expected to gradually rise, but their upside potential is limited due to weak demand [18][19]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price and Position**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,258 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.246%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1,197 tons, and the position decreased by 7,237 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,484 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton (0.548%), with registered warehouse receipts increasing by 8,925 tons and the position increasing by 6,551 lots [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by production restriction news, the cost side price rose, driving up the finished product price. The export volume declined slightly this week. Rebar showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with social inventory accumulating for two consecutive weeks. Hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of decreasing supply and demand, with significant inventory accumulation. If demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 801.00 yuan/ton, up 1.52% (+12.00), with a position increase of 51,084 lots to 443,800 lots. The weighted position was 940,500 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 787 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 35.74 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.27% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both decreased. The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.39 tons. Port inventory fluctuated slightly, and steel mill inventory increased slightly. The terminal data weakened slightly. The supply pressure is not significant, and demand support still exists [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position**: On August 12, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.16% at 6,110 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.17% at 5,820 yuan/ton. It is recommended that investment positions remain on the sidelines, while hedging positions can participate opportunistically [8][9]. - **Market Outlook**: The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon has not changed. Both ferrosilicon and manganese silicon may face weakening marginal demand. Attention should be paid to downstream demand and relevant policies [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon closed at 8,840 yuan/ton, down 1.78% (-160). The spot price remained flat. The supply is expected to increase in August, and demand can provide some support. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon closed at 51,800 yuan/ton, down 2.24% (-1,185). The spot price remained flat. In August, polysilicon is expected to increase production, and the inventory is likely to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe and Central China decreased. The national inventory increased by 3.95% month - on - month. The market sentiment has cooled down. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and in the long - term, it depends on policies and demand [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased by 40 yuan. The total inventory increased by 0.60%. The downstream is on the sidelines. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and in the long - term, the price center is expected to rise, but the upside is limited [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As the "anti - involution" sentiment cools and the Politburo meeting's impact fades, the market sentiment becomes rational, and the futures prices start to weaken. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, the steel prices may decline, and the futures prices will gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3]. - The overall demand for the black sector is weak. Although the supply pressure is not significant, the demand growth is limited. The market is influenced by short - term sentiment, and prices will eventually move towards the fundamentals [3][6][10]. - For different products, the fundamentals vary. For example, steel products have high inventory and weak demand; the supply of iron ore is in the traditional off - season, and the demand has support; the over - capacity situation of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon remains unchanged; glass and soda ash have inventory pressure and weak demand [3][6][11][14][16][18][19]. 3. Summary by Product Steel Products - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3250 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (1.151%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 579 tons, and the position increased by 515 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3465 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (1.079%), with a decrease of 1454 tons in registered warehouse receipts and 17218 lots in position [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar showed a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with social inventory accumulating for two consecutive weeks and the increase accelerating this week. Hot - rolled coils had both supply and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation was significant. Currently, the inventory of both rebar and hot - rolled coils is rising, but the demand is insufficient [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 789.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00% (+15.50), with an increase of 37210 lots in position to 39.27 million lots. The weighted position was 92.48 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 37.83 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.58% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The latest shipment and arrival volume of overseas iron ore both decreased. The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly due to blast furnace maintenance. The port inventory fluctuated slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly. The overall demand was slightly weak, but there was still demand support [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Prices**: On August 11, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) rebounded, closing up 0.89% at 6100 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed up 1.00% at 5830 yuan/ton [8]. - **Analysis and Suggestions**: The market is affected by sentiment, and prices fluctuate greatly. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively in the short term. Hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations. The over - capacity pattern of manganese silicon remains unchanged, and there is a risk of weakening demand in the future [9][10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon closed at 9000 yuan/ton, up 3.33% (+290), with an increase of 15809 lots in weighted position to 549604 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 200 yuan/ton; the 421 price increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 50 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand remain. The production rate is expected to increase in August, and the demand can provide some support, but new inventory pressure may occur. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly [14]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (PS2511) of polycrystalline silicon closed at 52985 yuan/ton, up 4.32% (+2195), with a decrease of 23165 lots in weighted position to 337163 lots. The spot price remained flat, and the basis of the main contract was - 5985 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: It is expected to increase production in August, and the downstream silicon wafer production also increases, but the silicon material is likely to accumulate inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price in Shahe decreased by 4 yuan, and in Central China by 30 yuan. As of August 7, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million weight - boxes, up 3.95% month - on - month and down 8.18% year - on - year. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and follow the macro - sentiment in the long term [18]. - **Soda Ash** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price was stable, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8762 million tons as of August 11, up 0.60% from last Thursday. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [19].

7月份，"反内卷"呼声愈演愈烈，引发市场对多个品种供给侧改革的强烈预期，助力相关期货品种价格 快速上涨。玻璃作为主要建材品种，也在十大重点行业稳增长领域之中，7月主力合约盘面上涨幅度最 高达36%，位列前茅。但由于缺乏具体措施落地，叠加市场"反内卷"情绪有所降温，盘面出现快速回 落。截至8月8日，2509合约收盘价为1063元/吨，较最高点1370元/吨下跌307元/吨，下跌幅度为22.4%。 从现货价格来看，由期货上涨叠加社会库存偏低引发的投机性补库支撑现货价格上涨，但涨幅不及期货 盘面。在期货价格下跌后，期现商低价出售手中货源冲击玻璃厂价格，导致市场进入消化中下游货源阶 段。近期部分区域厂家库存快速增加，价格再次回落。截至8月8日，沙河市场大板价格为1181元/吨， 基差为118元/吨。 与7月初中央财经委员会第六次会议提出的"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退 出"相比，7月30日中央政治局会议删除了"低价"二字，改为"依法依规治理企业无序竞争"，同时将"推 动落后产能有序退出"调整为"推进重点行业产能治理"。市场期待的供给侧强力改革预期骤然降温，且 浮法玻璃基本面没有实质性的改善，盘面急 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Report Core View - The focus in the market currently is on mine - end disturbances. If there is a short - term shutdown for rectification and then resumption after the mine certificates are compliant, considering the large recent downstream stocking and the supply from surrounding compliant mines, the impact on the balance sheet is limited. There may be a further push to raise the futures price from a market sentiment perspective, but the previous price increase has already factored in the shutdown impact, so the expected upside is limited. If the mine certificates are renewed smoothly, the supply side remains in a loose pattern. Given large downstream stocking, full previous pricing, small downstream production increase, the futures price may correct downward and return to the fundamental logic. Due to uncertainty and market rumors, investors are advised to participate cautiously [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,900 yuan with a daily increase of 800 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 69,800 yuan with a daily increase of 800 yuan [1] Lithium Futures - Lithium carbonate 2508 futures contract closed at 75,300 yuan, up 7.57%; lithium carbonate 2509 at 76,640 yuan, up 7.82%; lithium carbonate 2510 at 76,900 yuan, up 7.67%; lithium carbonate 2511 at 76,960 yuan, up 7.73%; lithium carbonate 2512 at 77,120 yuan, up 7.38% [1] Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) price is 777 yuan with a daily increase of 20 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) at 1,120 yuan with a daily increase of 30 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) at 1,800 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) at 5,675 yuan with a daily increase of 125 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) at 6,650 yuan with a daily increase of 150 yuan [1][2] Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,850 yuan with a daily increase of 280 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,320 yuan with a daily increase of 60 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,995 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,585 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main futures contract is - 5,060 yuan, with a change of - 3,860 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 260 yuan, with a change of 20 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 320 yuan, with a change of 60 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 142,418 tons, with an increase of 692 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 50,999 tons, with a decrease of 959 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 48,159 tons, with an increase of 2,271 tons; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,260 tons, with a decrease of 620 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 18,829 tons, with an increase of 2,386 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 69,521 yuan, with a profit of 1,349 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 77,368 yuan, with a profit of - 8,388 yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last Friday, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market declined slightly, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and oscillating trend. With the landing of the Politburo meeting and the cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the market sentiment became more rational, and the futures market trend started to weaken. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic. It is recommended to continuously monitor the recovery progress of terminal demand and the support of cost factors for finished steel prices [3]. - For iron ore, the current supply is in the traditional off - season of overseas mines, and the pressure is not significant. The steel mill profitability rate continues to rise, and although the short - term increase in hot metal may be limited, there is no sign of a rapid decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the change in terminal demand and the possible risks on the raw material side [6]. - Regarding manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the "anti - involution" has not changed the over - supplied industrial pattern of manganese silicon. In the future, attention should be paid to the possible marginal weakening of demand. For ferrosilicon, it is expected that there will be a marginal weakening of demand in the future. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [10][11]. - For industrial silicon, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand still exist. Although the demand in August can provide some support, it is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production in major production areas. For polysilicon, it is expected to increase production in August, and the inventory is likely to accumulate. It is recommended that both long and short positions participate with caution [14][16]. - For glass, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, if there are substantial policies in the real estate sector, the futures prices may continue to rise; otherwise, supply - side contraction is required for a significant increase. For soda ash, it is expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [18][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3213 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (- 0.55%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 94,978 tons, a net increase of 1487 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.61211 million lots, a net decrease of 16,057 lots. The summary price of rebar in Tianjin was 3320 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Shanghai, it was 3340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3428 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.34%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 70,915 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract was 1.392227 million lots, a net decrease of 36,360 lots. The summary price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar showed a pattern of both supply and demand increasing this week, and social inventory has accumulated for two consecutive weeks, with the increase further expanding this week. Hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of both supply and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation was significant. Currently, the inventories of both rebar and hot - rolled coils are on the rise, steel mill profits are good, and production remains high, but the demand - side support is insufficient [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 790.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.38% (- 3.00), and the position changed by - 27,288 lots to 308,100 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 916,400 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 28.02 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 3.43% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries increased, and the arrival volume increased. In terms of demand, the daily average hot metal production was 240.32 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons. Port inventory fluctuated slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory increased slightly. Terminal data showed that the apparent demand for five major steel products weakened, and inventory increased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: On August 8, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) oscillated, closing down 0.30% at 6046 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 94 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 1.06% at 5772 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 128 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, it is recommended that investment positions wait and see, while hedging positions can participate opportunistically. The over - supplied industrial pattern of manganese silicon has not changed, and there may be a marginal weakening of demand in the future. For ferrosilicon, there has been no significant change, and it is expected that there will be a marginal weakening of demand [9][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8710 yuan/ton, up 0.64% (+ 55). The weighted contract position changed by - 1995 lots to 533,795 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 390 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 190 yuan/ton. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 50,790 yuan/ton, up 1.36% (+ 680). The weighted contract position changed by - 15,312 lots to 360,328 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 44.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 46 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 47 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 3790 yuan/ton. It is expected to increase production in August, with inventory likely to accumulate. It is recommended that both long and short positions participate with caution [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe was 1181 yuan, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1190 yuan, unchanged. As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million weight boxes, a net increase of 2.348 million weight boxes (+ 3.95%) from the previous period, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18%. The inventory days were 26.4 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous period. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and follow macro - sentiment in the long term [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was 1235 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 13,300 tons (0.72%) from Monday. The downstream demand was tepid, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [19].

Core Viewpoint - In July, the "anti-involution" policy led to a narrowing of the PPI month-on-month decline to -0.2%, while the CPI for industrial consumer goods improved, contributing to a third consecutive month of core CPI year-on-year recovery. However, the impact of supply-side capacity management on prices is more moderate compared to 2016, with PPI year-on-year decline remaining at a two-year low of -3.6% and CPI year-on-year turning flat [2][19]. Group 1: CPI Analysis - The CPI year-on-year remained flat at 0.0% in July, primarily dragged down by food items, while core CPI rose to 0.8% [4]. - Food prices decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, contributing a marginal drag of 0.30 percentage points to the overall CPI [8]. - Seasonal supply of fresh vegetables and fruits was abundant, leading to a significant year-on-year decline in their prices, with fresh vegetables down 7.6% and fresh fruits up 2.8% [8][11]. Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI month-on-month decline narrowed from -0.4% to -0.2% in July, but the year-on-year decline remained at -3.6%, indicating limited effectiveness of the "anti-involution" measures on price uplift [19]. - Key industries such as coal, steel, and cement have implemented capacity management measures, which have led to a reduction in the month-on-month price declines for these sectors [19]. - International factors continue to pressure export-related prices, while domestic oil and non-ferrous metal prices have seen increases due to external input factors [20]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The "anti-involution" measures have led to a faster increase in futures prices compared to spot prices, indicating market expectations are ahead of actual supply-side adjustments [24]. - Looking ahead, the diminishing drag from tailing factors may lead to improvements in PPI year-on-year in August and CPI year-on-year in the fourth quarter, but sustained inflation recovery will require stronger policy support and a focus on expanding domestic demand [24]. - The current supply-side price uplift is more challenging and softer compared to 2016, with a broader range of industries involved, including upstream raw materials and downstream sectors [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, based on their projected earnings and valuation metrics [3]. Core Viewpoints - Steel demand is entering a seasonal downturn, with a focus on production restrictions in North China. The recent announcement of new coal safety regulations has led to rising prices in the coking coal sector. Despite high supply levels, steel mill profits are declining. Anticipation of production cuts around the September 3 military parade may temporarily suppress steel supply [3][6]. - Long-term capacity management remains a key theme, with a combination of market-oriented and administrative measures expected to optimize crude steel supply. The gradual release of new iron ore capacity is anticipated to restore profitability for steel companies [3][6]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of August 8, 2025, steel prices showed mixed trends. The price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai was 3,330 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton from the previous week. Hot-rolled steel increased by 40 CNY/ton to 3,470 CNY/ton, while cold-rolled steel rose by 10 CNY/ton to 3,870 CNY/ton [1][9]. Production and Inventory - The total production of five major steel varieties reached 8.69 million tons, an increase of 17,900 tons week-on-week. Rebar production rose by 101,200 tons to 2.2118 million tons. Total social inventory increased by 201,600 tons to 9.6149 million tons [2][3]. Profitability - Steel profits have decreased, with estimated gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel declining by 67 CNY/ton, 16 CNY/ton, and 28 CNY/ton respectively. Electric arc furnace steel margins also fell by 22 CNY/ton [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the flat steel sector; Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. in the special steel sector; and Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless in the pipe materials sector. It also suggests monitoring high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [3][6].