Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints - The improvement of fundamentals and policy expectations help the sector stabilize periodically. The rapid recovery of hot metal output after the parade boosts the demand for furnace materials, supporting steel prices. Steel enterprises' rapid resumption of production and frequent policy expectations on the supply - side jointly lead to the price stabilization of sector varieties [2]. - The short - term prices of most varieties in the black building materials sector are expected to oscillate. Although there are some supporting factors, there are also limitations and uncertainties in demand and supply [3][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - The main futures prices of the sector oscillated strongly yesterday, and the night - session prices oscillated. The statements in the NDRC report triggered small fluctuations in the market. The resumption of production by steel enterprises and policy expectations on the supply - side led to the price stabilization of sector varieties [2] 2. Raw Material Analysis Iron Element - In terms of iron ore, port maintenance led to a significant decline in Brazilian shipments, but the impact on annual shipments is expected to be small. The current demand has returned to the level before the parade restrictions, supporting iron ore demand. However, the peak - season demand for finished products needs to be continuously verified, limiting the upside space of iron ore. It is expected that the short - term iron ore price will oscillate. For scrap steel, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. The pressure on finished product prices leads to low electric - furnace profits, but resources are still tight, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [3] Carbon Element - The recovery of steel mills' imported ore consumption to the pre - parade level indicates the recovery of hot metal production. Steel mills still have restocking demand before the National Day, and the short - term price is expected to remain oscillating. The recovery of coal mines is slower than that of downstream hot metal, and safety accidents continue to disrupt the coal - mine production increase rhythm. Under this supply - demand pattern, coal - mine inventories are being depleted at a low level, and there is still restocking expectation downstream before the National Day, so the coking coal price is expected to be supported [3] Alloys - For manganese silicon, a new round of steel tenders has started, and the market is waiting and seeing. The first - round inquiry price in September decreased by 400 yuan/ton month - on - month. The fundamentals lack upward drivers. In the short term, the cost side and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but the medium - and long - term price has a large downward pressure. For ferrosilicon, the first - round inquiry price in September decreased by 330 yuan/ton month - on - month. The short - term cost side still supports the price, and the downward space of the futures price may be limited in the peak - season expectation, but the medium - and long - term price center will tend to decline [4] 3. Individual Product Analysis Steel - The spot market trading volume of steel is average, and the inventory is at a moderately high level. The fundamentals are weak, especially for building materials. Although the cost side has support and there is restocking demand during the peak season, it is expected that the performance of rebar will be weaker than that of hot - rolled coils [8] Iron Ore - The overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports decreased month - on - month, mainly due to port maintenance in Brazil. The demand has support in the short term as the small - sample hot metal output has recovered. The overall inventory level is moderate. The demand is expected to recover, and steel enterprises' inventories are at a low level, but the peak - season demand for finished products has not been verified, so the short - term price is expected to oscillate [8][9] Scrap Steel - The arrival volume of scrap steel decreased this week. The pressure on finished product prices led to low electric - furnace profits, and the total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - flow processes decreased. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory - available days are at a low level. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [10] Coke - The first - round price cut has been implemented, but the coking profit is still considerable, and the supply has basically returned to normal. After the parade, steel mills' production enthusiasm is high, and they maintain on - demand procurement. The coke supply will gradually become loose. With the support of high hot - metal production, steel mills still have restocking demand, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [11] Coking Coal - Coal mines have basically resumed production, and Mongolian coal imports remain high. The downstream steel and coking enterprises' procurement is cautious, and the upstream inventory is accumulating, but the overall inventory pressure is not prominent. After the parade, the production of coking coal and coke will gradually recover, and the downstream restocking on - demand will support the coking coal price [11] Glass - The actual demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be another wave of oscillations. In the medium and long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [12] Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, the spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15] Manganese Silicon - A new round of steel tenders has started, and the market is waiting and seeing. The first - round inquiry price in September decreased by 400 yuan/ton month - on - month. The fundamentals lack upward drivers. In the short term, the cost side and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but the medium - and long - term price has a large downward pressure [16] Ferrosilicon - The first - round inquiry price in September decreased by 330 yuan/ton month - on - month. The short - term cost side still supports the price, and the downward space of the futures price may be limited in the peak - season expectation, but the medium - and long - term price center will tend to decline [17] 4. Index Information - On September 10, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2222.49, down 0.11%; the commodity 20 index was 2487.89, down 0.16%; the industrial products index was 2232.18, up 0.10%. The steel industry chain index was 1999.51, with a daily decline of 0.18%, a 5 - day increase of 1.04%, a 1 - month decline of 4.05%, and a year - to - date decline of 5.16% [100][102]

Group 1: Price Data Overview - The August price data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows significant structural differentiation, with a slight year-on-year decline in CPI, but positive signals regarding economic transformation and structural optimization are evident [1][4] - CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, primarily due to last year's high base and lower seasonal food prices, with food prices dropping by 4.3% year-on-year [1][2] - The decline in food prices reflects the strengthening of domestic agricultural supply capabilities, indicating support from the supply side rather than a contraction in demand [1] Group 2: Core CPI and Consumer Demand - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth, indicating a steady recovery in domestic consumption demand [2] - Service consumption, particularly in healthcare, education, and tourism, has shown significant price increases, contributing to the core CPI's rise [2] - Upgraded consumption remains robust, with notable price increases in gold and platinum jewelry, as well as household appliances, reflecting a growing pursuit of high-quality living among consumers [2] Group 3: Industrial Price Trends - Industrial prices are showing positive changes, with PPI stabilizing after eight months of decline, and the year-on-year decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points [3] - The structural improvement in industrial prices indicates a marginal improvement in supply-demand relationships within certain industries, alongside ongoing optimization of industrial structure and growth of new drivers [3] - Key industry capacity governance measures are yielding results, leading to price increases in traditional raw material sectors like coal and steel, while new drivers are enhancing prices in high-tech and green industries [3] Group 4: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - Current price data reflects a significant structural characteristic of "supply optimization in traditional sectors and demand expansion in emerging sectors," highlighting the accelerated transition of China's economic drivers [4] - Macro policies need to remain precise and patient, ensuring stable supply and prices for essential goods while enhancing the internal driving force through improved consumption environments and high-quality supply [4] - Continued support for consumption and the construction of a unified national market are expected to promote steady recovery in consumer demand and stabilize low CPI levels, while industrial price recovery is anticipated to continue [4]

Group 1 - The August price data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows significant structural differentiation, with a slight year-on-year decline in CPI, but positive signals regarding economic transformation and structural optimization are evident [1][4] - The CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base from the previous year and lower seasonal food prices, with food prices dropping by 4.3% year-on-year [1][2] - Non-food prices are showing a continuous recovery, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a steady recovery in domestic consumption demand [2][3] Group 2 - Industrial prices are showing positive changes, with PPI turning stable after eight months of decline, and the year-on-year decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points, signaling improved industrial economic stability [3][4] - The structural improvement in industrial prices reflects better supply-demand relationships in certain sectors and ongoing optimization of industrial structure, with traditional industries like coal and steel seeing price increases [3][4] - The ongoing expansion of new demand in emerging sectors is driving price increases in high-tech and green industries, indicating a shift towards higher value-added products [3][4]

CPI Insights - In August 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, down from 0% in the previous month, and below the market expectation of -0.2%[2] - The core CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year, slightly up from 0.8% in the previous month, indicating a continuous recovery over four months[2] - Food prices significantly impacted the CPI, with a year-on-year decline of 4.3% in August, compared to -1.6% in July[4] PPI Insights - The PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.9% in August from 3.6% in July, aligning with market expectations[2] - The PPI month-on-month change was stable at 0%, improving from a decline of 0.2% in the previous month[2] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to a stabilization in prices for coal, steel, and new energy vehicles, contributing to the PPI's upward trend[8] Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to return to positive growth in Q4 2025 as high base effects diminish and pig production capacity management continues[3] - The PPI is anticipated to gradually recover, although the process may be slow due to a weaker demand environment compared to 2015-2016[11] - The overall supply-demand balance in industries is expected to improve, indicating that the worst phase for PPI has likely passed[11]

Macro and Strategy Research - The U.S. economy is experiencing a shift in the balance of risks between inflation and employment, with a potential monetary policy shift expected in September. The focus is on August's non-farm payroll and inflation data, as well as adjustments to the annual non-farm benchmark [2] - In Europe, economic expectations are improving, and stable inflation allows the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain current policy rates. ECB President Lagarde indicated that trade negotiations are not posing significant threats to monetary policy [2] Domestic Economy - Domestic economic growth slowed in July due to extreme weather and policy expectations, characterized by strong external demand and weak internal demand. Future external demand growth is expected to be supported by a weakening U.S. demand and a reshaped long-term trade landscape [3] - The domestic policy environment emphasizes stabilizing market expectations and strengthening the domestic circulation, with structural monetary policies focusing on inclusive finance and technological innovation [3][4] Fixed Income Research - In August, the central bank injected a net liquidity of 386.5 billion yuan, maintaining low funding prices. The issuance of interest rate bonds decreased to 3 trillion yuan, with net financing increasing to 1.7 trillion yuan [6][7] - The bond market is expected to face pressure from external demand uncertainties and "anti-involution" measures, with a focus on the stability of the funding environment in September [8] Industry Research - The medical insurance payment management method was introduced in August, and the 11th batch of centralized procurement is progressing. The medical care CPI in July was 100.5, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [9][10] - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry reported a cumulative revenue of 1,401.07 billion yuan from January to July, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, while cumulative profits fell by 2.6% [10] - The upcoming World Lung Cancer Conference (WCLC) is expected to provide opportunities for innovation in the pharmaceutical and medical device sectors, with a focus on companies benefiting from optimized procurement rules and the recovery of domestic demand [10]

Core Viewpoint - The IPO plan for Zhejiang Chint Solar Energy Co., Ltd. (Chint Aneng) has been terminated, raising concerns about the broader financing challenges facing the photovoltaic industry amid regulatory scrutiny and overcapacity issues [1][2][24]. Company Overview - Chint Aneng's IPO was planned for over three years, with an aim to raise 6 billion yuan for expanding its household photovoltaic business [1][2]. - The company had shown significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 137.04 billion yuan, 296.06 billion yuan, and 318.26 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, alongside net profits of 17.53 billion yuan, 26.04 billion yuan, and 28.61 billion yuan respectively [10][18]. IPO Process and Termination - The IPO process faced delays after the first round of inquiries from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which raised 16 questions regarding inventory, independence, and related transactions [2]. - On September 1, 2023, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced the termination of Chint Aneng's IPO application due to the withdrawal by the company and its sponsor [2][4]. Financial Challenges - Chint Aneng is under significant financial pressure, with short-term loans reaching 8.97 billion yuan and total current liabilities of 37.12 billion yuan, while liquid assets are only 4.79 billion yuan [8]. - The company has a substantial inventory of 37.41 billion yuan, primarily consisting of unsold photovoltaic power stations, indicating a potential liquidity crisis [26]. Regulatory Environment - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing strict regulatory measures aimed at controlling overcapacity and ensuring compliance with national policies [24][22]. - Chint Aneng's planned use of IPO proceeds for expanding production contradicts the government's push for capacity governance, complicating its ability to justify the necessity of the fundraising [28]. Market Conditions - Despite a bullish market environment, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 40% since last year, the specific conditions of the photovoltaic sector, including overcapacity and regulatory scrutiny, have created a challenging landscape for IPOs [12][24].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 41.292 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.38%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.368 billion yuan, an increase of 31.34% [1] - The mid-year profit distribution plan includes a dividend of 0.24 yuan per share, totaling 1.26 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 22.24 billion yuan, down 8.24% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.557 billion yuan, up 40.26% [1] - The company's cement clinker sales volume in H1 2025 was 12.6 million tons, a slight decline of 0.35% year-on-year, outperforming the industry [3] - The average selling price of cement was 243 yuan per ton, an increase of 4 yuan year-on-year, with a gross profit per ton of 70 yuan, up 18 yuan year-on-year [3] Industry Context - National cement production in H1 2025 was 815 million tons, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, reflecting weak demand amid a slowing macroeconomic environment [2][3] - Infrastructure investment in China grew by 4.6% year-on-year, while real estate development investment fell by 11.2%, and new housing starts dropped by 20% [2] Capital Expenditure and Capacity - The company’s capital expenditure in H1 2025 was approximately 6.21 billion yuan, primarily for project construction and external investments [4] - New capacities added during the reporting period included 1.8 million tons of clinker, 4 million tons of cement, 3.5 million tons of aggregates, and 525 million cubic meters of ready-mixed concrete [4] - The company’s total clinker capacity reached 27.6 million tons, cement capacity 40.7 million tons, and aggregate capacity 16.7 million tons by the end of the reporting period [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that supply-side reforms may provide price recovery potential, with expectations for improved production order and utilization rates if production is strictly aligned with registered capacities [4] - Earnings forecasts for 2025-2026 are projected at 8.7 billion and 10.1 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 15 and 13 times, respectively, indicating a buy rating [5]

证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号 金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 盈利结构与 2015 年有不同之处 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 28 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 工业企业盈利好坏参半。当前企业盈利整体降幅收窄，但我们认为不能用 好或不好来简单一概而论，因为今年 1-7 月的企业盈利数据结构性分化 特征比较明显。首先，整体上看，利润率支撑降幅收窄，量价均有拖累。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides daily analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including market trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and investment suggestions for each metal [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Tuesday saw Shanghai copper contract give back the previous day's gains, with spot copper at 79,585 yuan, and premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong at 130 and 65 yuan/ton respectively [2] - The US included copper in the 2025 critical minerals list, which may make related projects eligible for federal funding or simplified licensing procedures [2] - Shanghai copper faces strong resistance at the integer level, and short positions at high levels are recommended to be held [2] Aluminum - On the day, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, with East China spot prices falling to par [3] - At the end of August to September, there is an increasing expectation of smelter production cuts and maintenance, and transportation restrictions in central and northern China lead to regional supply shortages [6] - The short - term fundamentals of aluminum are improving, but the high inventory of the outer market and the insufficient expected increase in domestic lead - acid battery consumption limit the rebound space [6] - It is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the range of 16,600 - 17,300 yuan/ton [6] Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts are rising [3] - Supply surplus is emerging, with northern spot transactions falling below 3,200 yuan, and alumina is in a weak and volatile state [3] - The 3,000 - yuan level provides temporary support, and short - term long positions can be considered if the futures discount continues to widen [3] Zinc - Overseas and domestic mine - end increments are being realized, TC continues to rise, and domestic smelters are highly motivated to increase production [4] - The spot price is at a discount to the futures price, and zinc inventory is continuously becoming visible, putting pressure on Shanghai zinc [4] - With the approaching peak season in September and the expected Fed rate cut, the macro - level is slightly optimistic, but it does not resonate well with the supply - increase and demand - weak fundamentals [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded slightly, with dull market trading [7] - Traders have a strong willingness to support prices, and the premium range of mainstream electrowon nickel remains at - 100 - 300 yuan/ton this week [7] - Pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 41,000 tons, nickel - iron inventory remained at 33,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory remained at 934,000 tons [7] Tin - Shanghai tin increased positions slightly and closed with a positive line just below 270,000 yuan [8] - Spot tin rose to 270,000 yuan, at par with the 2509 contract, and the strength of spot pricing should be monitored [8] - Tin prices still have the intention to rebound, and long positions can be held based on the MA60 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate declined, and market trading shrank [9] - Some miners sold goods during the futures price increase, and there was sporadic auction supply [9] - After the futures price dived, there was temporary reluctance to sell, and the market is bullish in the short - term with risk control [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures decreased positions and declined, affected by the weakening coking coal price and the stable expectation of polysilicon capacity management policy [10] - In terms of fundamentals, supply in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan increased this month, and demand also followed up, with a significant increase in polysilicon production scheduling in August [10] - The short - term sentiment makes the futures price weak, and the support level at 8,300 yuan/ton should be observed [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to fluctuate [11] - After last week's industry meeting, the spot price of N - type re -投料 rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, and actual transactions need to be tracked [11] - The inventory pressure of polysilicon is greater than that of silicon wafers, and production scheduling in August is likely to decline to repair the supply - demand structure [11]

Price Summary - Steel prices have decreased this week, with Shanghai 20mm HRB400 rebar priced at 3270 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from last week [1][2] - High-line 8.0mm is priced at 3420 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton [1][2] - Hot-rolled 3.0mm is at 3420 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton [1][2] - Cold-rolled 1.0mm is priced at 3830 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton [1][2] - Common medium plate 20mm is at 3470 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton [1][2] - Domestic ore prices are stable to rising, while imported ore prices are stable to falling, and scrap steel prices have decreased [2] Profit Analysis - Steel profits have declined this week, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins changing by -58 CNY/ton, -50 CNY/ton, and -42 CNY/ton respectively [2] - Electric arc furnace steel margins have decreased by -34 CNY/ton [2] Production and Inventory - Total production of five major steel products reached 8.78 million tons, an increase of 64,300 tons week-on-week [3] - Construction steel production decreased by 37,100 tons week-on-week, while plate production increased by 101,400 tons [3] - Rebar production decreased by 58,000 tons to 2.1465 million tons [3] - Total social inventory of five major steel products increased by 264,300 tons to 10.1621 million tons [3] - Steel mill inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 4.2383 million tons [3] - Apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 1.948 million tons, an increase of 48,600 tons week-on-week [3] Investment Recommendations - The expansion of U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs has put pressure on steel prices [4] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has extended tariffs to 407 categories of steel and aluminum derivatives, affecting most downstream steel manufacturing [4] - Seasonal demand weakness and a vacuum in supply-side policies have led to a significant narrowing of steel mill profits [4] - Long-term capacity management remains a key focus, with a combination of market-oriented and administrative measures expected to optimize crude steel supply [4] - Recommended stocks include: - General steel sector: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel [4] - Special steel sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. [4] - Pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel [4] - Suggested focus on high-temperature alloy stocks: Fushun Special Steel [4]