Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][13][5]. Core Insights - Guming is a leading affordable fresh tea beverage brand with significant advantages, having expanded from Zhejiang to over 200 cities across 17 provinces in China, with 9,914 stores by the end of 2024 [1][25]. - The company has a strong supply chain and unique channel strategies that have propelled it to become the second-largest brand in the industry, focusing on lower-tier cities to avoid intense competition [2][11]. - The tea beverage market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size exceeding 600 billion CNY by 2024, and Guming is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth [1][52]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guming has been in the fresh tea beverage industry for over a decade, establishing a robust presence with a high average quarterly repurchase rate of 53% and a store operating profit margin of approximately 20% [1][25]. - The company operates primarily through a franchise model, which has facilitated rapid expansion and a strong brand presence in lower-tier cities [2][11]. Market Potential - The fresh beverage market in China is projected to reach over 1 trillion CNY by 2028, with the fresh tea segment being the largest [52][55]. - The market for fresh tea beverages is expected to grow at a CAGR of 19.2% from 2024 to 2028, particularly in lower-tier cities where Guming has focused its expansion efforts [55][60]. Supply Chain and Competitive Advantage - Guming's supply chain is a core competitive advantage, allowing for efficient operations and the ability to quickly respond to market demands [2][11]. - The company has implemented a regional density strategy, enhancing its market penetration and brand recognition in areas with multiple store locations [2][11]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.96 billion CNY, 2.36 billion CNY, and 2.76 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.82, 0.99, and 1.16 CNY [3][4][13]. - Guming's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted revenue of 11.16 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a 27% growth rate [4][8]. Strategic Initiatives - Guming plans to increase its store count by 2,000 in 2025, focusing on provinces such as Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, and Guangxi [2][11]. - The introduction of coffee products is anticipated to contribute positively to store revenue, with an estimated 10% increase in sales per store [2][11].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, with a gross margin of 44.2%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of 590 million yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year [1] - The domestic same-store sales showed improvement, with a significant recovery in sales performance since the beginning of the year, and a notable recovery during the May Day holiday [1] - The company achieved a total of 4,275 stores in China by the end of March 2025, with a net closure of 111 stores, focusing on high-quality development and refined store network strategy [1] Group 2: International Operations - In Q1 2025, the company's overseas revenue reached 1.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, despite high base pressure from the previous year [2] - The company added 95 new stores overseas, focusing on markets in Asia and North America, with a stable performance in overseas same-store sales when viewed from a two-year compound growth perspective [2] - Since April, there has been a month-on-month improvement in same-store performance in key overseas markets such as Mexico and the United States, supported by the execution of the IP strategy and store quality enhancement [2] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The company is committed to a five-year strategic plan aimed at stable profit growth, with projected revenues of 20.54 billion yuan, 24.60 billion yuan, and 29.55 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to growth rates of 20.9%, 19.7%, and 20.2% respectively [2] - Adjusted net profits are expected to be 2.86 billion yuan, 3.68 billion yuan, and 4.56 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 4.97%, 28.74%, and 24.04% respectively [2] - The company maintains an "overweight" rating due to its supply chain advantages and strengthened IP conversion capabilities, alongside ongoing global strategic initiatives [2]

蜜雪集团上市后的表现，既有京东外卖补贴战的短期催化，又有股权结构、门店优势等多重因素影 响。这家主打极致性价比的连锁品牌，正在颠覆消费品行业的传统估值体系。 蜜雪集团市值超过泸州老窖 截至5月27日收盘，蜜雪集团上涨9.97%，报579港元，总市值约2198亿港元，稳居2000亿港元大 关上方。 2025.05. 27 本文字数：1557，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 王方然 一杯均价5元的奶茶，撑起了比"白酒巨头"更高的市值。 5月27日，蜜雪集团股价飙升至579港元，创下历史新高，总市值突破2198亿港元，反超泸州老窖， 且两倍于洋河股份。目前蜜雪集团高达市盈率45倍，已远超多家一线白酒品牌。 作为港股"新贵"，蜜雪集团3月3日上市后，至今累计涨超160%，均远超恒生指数同期涨幅。 从4月7日起，蜜雪集团股价就开始震荡上行，从333港元/股的低位一路走高至560港元上方，区间 涨幅超68%。 目前，蜜雪集团市值已反超多家老牌酒业品牌。以5月27日收盘价计算，"初代酒王"泸州老窖市值为 1754亿元，洋河股份为1000亿元。啤酒巨头中，青岛啤酒、百威亚太的市值分别为855亿元、1066 亿港元。 ...

Core Insights - Fresh Beer Fulu Family is breaking the craft beer price barrier with a low-cost strategy, offering products priced between 9.9 to 16 yuan per cup, positioning itself as a "budget craft beer" brand under the Mxue Ice City umbrella [1][4] - The brand has expanded rapidly, with over 500 stores across 18 provinces and 56 cities since its establishment in 2021, leveraging supply chain advantages to reduce operational costs and enhance profit margins [4][7] - The craft beer market in China is projected to grow significantly, reaching 11 billion yuan by 2028, with a notable increase in demand for tea-flavored beers, indicating a robust market opportunity for Fresh Beer Fulu Family [7][10] Company Overview - Fresh Beer Fulu Family is a subsidiary of Mxue Ice City, established in 2021, and operates independently with no direct ownership ties to Mxue Ice City, despite public perception linking the two brands [4][5] - The brand's product range includes over 15 SKUs, featuring categories like fresh beer, tea beer, and fruit beer, with popular items such as "Crazy Sugar Orange" and "Fulu Golden Orange Pu'er" [3][4] Market Strategy - The low-price strategy is a key component of Fresh Beer Fulu Family's market entry, particularly effective in lower-tier cities, but faces challenges in higher-tier cities due to increased operational costs and market competition [1][9] - The brand's gross profit margin is reported to be around 50%, with peak sales reaching 10,000 yuan per day during busy seasons, indicating a strong revenue potential [7][9] Competitive Landscape - The craft beer sector is experiencing a competitive reshuffle, with brands increasingly focusing on supply chain efficiencies to maintain profitability amidst rising costs [8][9] - The overall trend in the craft beer market suggests a downward pressure on prices, with many brands, including Fresh Beer Fulu Family, needing to adapt to maintain market share [10]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Tongcheng Travel and Wanda Group marks a significant move in the online travel agency (OTA) sector, as Tongcheng plans to acquire Wanda Hotel Management for 2.497 billion, aiming to strengthen its position in the hotel management market amidst increasing competition from platforms like Meituan and Douyin [1][3][7]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Tongcheng Travel announced the acquisition of 100% equity in Wanda Hotel Management for 2.497 billion, with a valuation of 9.5 times the adjusted EBITDA for 2023, slightly below the industry average [3]. - Wanda Hotel Management operates a light-asset model with nine hotel brands, managing 204 hotels and over 40,200 rooms, with an additional 376 hotels under contract to open [3]. - The acquisition is expected to enhance Tongcheng's competitiveness in the high-end hotel sector, leveraging Wanda's established brand portfolio and experienced management team [3][4]. Group 2: Market Context and Strategy - The hotel supply currently exceeds demand, leading to intensified competition and opportunities for low-cost acquisitions, prompting OTAs to enhance their accommodation offerings [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that OTAs are seeking new growth avenues through hotel acquisitions, which can provide direct operational profits and strengthen market positions through industry chain collaboration [2][7]. - Data indicates that accommodation bookings remain a core revenue source for major OTAs, with Tongcheng's accommodation service revenue reaching 4.7 billion, accounting for 27% of total revenue, and Ctrip's accommodation revenue at 21.6 billion, making up 40% of total revenue, both showing double-digit growth year-on-year [7]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition in the hotel booking market has intensified, with platforms like Meituan and Douyin capturing significant market share from traditional OTAs [7][10]. - The acquisition strategies of both Tongcheng and Ctrip are seen as essential moves to mitigate competition from emerging players and to control scarce supply resources more effectively [10]. - The future competition in the OTA sector is expected to focus on deepening supply chain integration and enhancing user engagement [10].

在新茶饮赛道经历三年冷遇后，茶百道于2024年成功上市，此后古茗、蜜雪冰城接连登陆港股市场，蜜雪冰城甚至 成为港股冻资王，打破新茶饮品牌上市首日破发"魔咒"。 而霸王茶姬此次选择闯荡美股，不仅将成为新茶饮品牌在资本市场的另一标志事件，或也将成为霸王茶姬这一东方 消费品牌走向全球的开端之一。 01 作者 | 远禾 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 资本市场终于等到了霸王茶姬。 3月26日凌晨，霸王茶姬公开递交IPO招股书，计划在美国纳斯达克上市，股票代码为CHA，也即是"茶"的拼音。 去年以来，新茶饮在资本市场颇受关注。 高质扩张： 激烈市场竞争下的发展奇迹 过去几年间，霸王茶姬飞速发展。 根据招股书数据，2022至2024年间，霸王茶姬营收规模分别为4.92亿元、46.40亿元和124.06亿元，几乎每年登上 一个新台阶，三年间增长了超24倍。 | | | | | For the Year Ended December 31, | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2022 | | 2023 | ...

Group 1: Market Trends - The consumer market is expected to see new forms emerging due to increased consumption policies, with a projected support of approximately 300 billion yuan for consumption upgrades[8] - The health, functionality, and fashion trends are identified as core drivers for product differentiation in the consumer goods sector[11] - The ready-to-drink tea market is projected to reach a scale of 2.573 trillion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.2% from 2024 to 2028[50] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the food and beverage sector are anticipated to arise from consumption policy-driven recovery, with a focus on leading companies that can adapt to industry trends[3] - Companies that can leverage supply chain advantages are expected to outperform in future market competition, as supply chain efficiency becomes a key differentiator[70] - The discount supermarket sector is projected to experience significant growth, with a market size reaching 4 trillion yuan and maintaining a double-digit CAGR[54] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - A significant 32% of consumers are expected to stock up during brand promotions, indicating a shift towards value-driven purchasing decisions[31] - The trend of pursuing quality-price ratio products is becoming the core decision-making logic in the food and beverage industry, with consumers increasingly prioritizing product quality and cost-effectiveness[32] Group 4: Product Innovations - Health-oriented products are gaining traction, with brands like Yuanqi Forest and Dongpeng showcasing strong market performance through innovative health-focused offerings[19][21] - The introduction of functional snacks and beverages, such as the "Red Small Pie" series, has led to substantial revenue growth, with sales exceeding 200 million yuan in 2023[25]