中信建投（601066）研报称，上周债券市场调整后趋于稳定。随着中央政治局会议的召开及中美斯德哥 尔摩举行经贸会谈的结束，短期市场影响因素暂时落地。考虑到财政部对国债、地方债等券种恢复征收 增值税，新老债券划断效应或在下周显现，短期内以老券为主的二级市场或有适度走强。点位方面，信 用利差冲高回落，当前AAA中短票利差修复至22BP一线，位于中期低位。这一位置体现了最近数月20 —30BP的利差波动区间的相对稳定性。从机构行为来看，银行继续保持抛售态势，而保险、理财等负 债稳定机构的买入力量在增加。配置盘力量的增强或使债市振幅逐渐减少。综合来看，短期债市有一定 走强倾向，可关注后续增量消息带来的新方向。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market showed a situation of "all negative factors priced in" this week. After the high - level oscillation in the first half of the week, influenced by factors such as the extension of Sino - US tariff exemptions, lack of unexpected policies in the Politburo meeting in July, significant corrections in the equity market and commodity prices, and poor July manufacturing PMI data, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield returned to around 1.7%. The news of resuming the collection of VAT on the interest income of some bonds on Friday afternoon pushed the 10 - year Treasury bond yield below 1.7% [2][6]. - The tax system for bond investment in China varies according to different bond types, investors, and income sources. The new tax policy exempts the old bonds of Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds from VAT on interest income, while new bonds require banks and other institutional investors to pay 6.34% VAT and asset management products to pay 3.26% VAT [2][6]. - After the tax rate adjustment, institutions may prefer to hold old bonds. The new bond issuance may need to provide sufficient interest compensation. The actual yield of old bonds may be between 1.65% - 1.7%, and the new - old bond spread may be between 5 - 10BP [2][13]. - The central bank may support the policy adjustment to increase the nominal level of domestic bond interest rates and reduce the investment and trading willingness of financial institutions. The finance department may aim to expand the tax source. The policy may increase the annual VAT revenue by up to 140 billion, and the annual fiscal interest payment may increase by about 50 billion [2][3]. - In the short term, the bond market may maintain a volatile pattern. After the new tax policy, there may be a short - term trading opportunity for old bonds, but the market may still face disturbances, and the volatile pattern is difficult to break [2][23]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 China's Bond Investment Tax System Varies by Bond Type, Investor, and Income Source - **VAT**: Interest income from Treasury bonds, local government bonds, financial bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit is exempt from VAT. For other bond types, the actual VAT rate for general legal entities is 6.34%, and for asset management products, it is 3.26%. Capital gains from most bonds are subject to VAT, but public funds are exempt. The actual VAT rate takes into account price - exclusive factors and additional taxes [2][6][7]. - **Income Tax**: Financial institutions' interest income from investing in Treasury bonds and local government bonds is exempt from income tax. Interest income from railway bonds is taxed at a reduced rate of 12.5%. Other bond interest income and capital gains are taxed at 25%. Contractual asset management products are not income tax payers, and the tax is borne by product holders. Personal investment in asset management products is currently tax - free, while enterprises and financial institutions are taxable. Public fund dividends are exempt from income tax [2][8]. - **Impact on Yield Difference**: Tax system differences are an important reason for the yield differences among different bond types in China. For example, the implied tax rate between Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds has an upper limit of 25% [9]. 3.2 Under the New Tax Policy, the Market's Rush for Old Bonds is Mainly Due to Different Tax Rates Among Institutions - **New Tax Policy**: Starting from August 8, 2025, new - issued Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds' interest income will be subject to VAT, while old bonds' interest income remains tax - free [11]. - **Pricing of New and Old Bonds**: Assuming the fair - value yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is 1.7%, new bonds need to provide sufficient interest compensation. For asset management products, the new bond issuance rate only needs to reach 1.755% to be equivalent to old bonds, while for self - operated accounts, it needs to reach 1.808%. The actual new - old bond spread may be between 5 - 10BP [12][13]. - **Actual Situation**: Banks can invest in asset management products to avoid tax impacts, which may narrow the new - old bond spread. For short - duration bonds, the new bond yield may rise more. The demand for non - tax - adjusted bonds such as inter - bank certificates of deposit and credit bonds may increase, but the positive impact is limited [14]. 3.3 The New Tax Policy Can Increase the Nominal Interest Rate of New Bonds, but Commercial Banks May Bear Higher Tax Costs - **Policy Motivation**: The central bank may support the policy to increase the nominal level of domestic bond interest rates, and the finance department aims to expand the tax source [17]. - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: In the first year of the policy implementation, the additional VAT revenue may be less than 36 billion. Eventually, the annual fiscal VAT revenue increase may be within 140 billion, and the annual fiscal interest payment may increase by about 50 billion. The difference reflects the tax cost borne by banks and other financial institutions [3][19][21]. - **Future Policy Expectation**: There may be further adjustments to the tax system of asset management products, especially the tax - exemption policy for public fund dividends [22]. 3.4 After Repricing the Existing Bonds, the Bond Market May Still Show a Volatile Pattern - **Short - Term Market Trend**: The bond market may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term due to the lack of incremental policies in the Politburo meeting in July, limited inflation - driving ability of production - restriction policies, and the expected maintenance of a loose monetary policy [23]. - **Impact of New Tax Policy**: After the new tax policy, there may be a short - term trading opportunity for old bonds as their yields may decline by 0 - 5BP. However, the market may still face disturbances such as rising bank financing costs and potential tax policy adjustments for public funds, and the volatile pattern is difficult to break [24]. - **Long - Term Outlook**: A further decline in interest rates may require weaker fundamental data to force a policy shift. There is a possibility that the economic growth rate may decline in the second half of the year, and if combined with central bank bond - buying or interest rate cuts, interest rates may reach new lows, which may occur in the second half of the third quarter [24].

从债券增信（担保）市场情况来看，上半年，陕西发行增信债券33只，与去年同期持平；发行规模 144亿元，同比增长39.24%。 上半年，陕西发行增信城投债11只，规模54.47亿元，占新增增信债券规模的37.83%；发行增信产 业债22只，规模89.53亿元，占新增增信债券规模的62.17%。陕西金融资产管理股份有限公司子公司陕 西信用增进投资股份有限公司相关负责人表示，这反映出我省债券增信机构在保障城投债平稳续接基础 上，加大了产业债支持力度，将更好助力全省经济稳增长、调结构。（记者 孙丹） 7月29日，记者从陕西金融资产管理股份有限公司获悉：上半年，全省债券发行规模1870.87亿元， 发行规模同比减少76.43亿元，陕西债券市场运行表现较为平稳。 截至6月末，陕西存续债券规模8544.36亿元。从存量结构来看，陕西非金融企业信用债存量规模 7755.54亿元，非金融企业信用债在交易所、银行间市场的存续规模较为均衡；金融债存量规模合计 788.82亿元。 从发行结构来看，上半年，陕西非金融企业信用债发行规模1583.87亿元，同比下降1.27%。其中， 城投债发行规模557.25亿元，同比增长48.04%； ...

近期，我国债券市场规模稳定增长。中国人民银行公布的金融市场运行情况显示，6月份，国债发行 15903.9亿元，地方政府债券发行11753.2亿元，金融债券发行10738.7亿元，公司信用类债券发行14257.3 亿元，信贷资产支持证券发行247.2亿元，同业存单发行34569.3亿元。 记者日前从中国人民银行获悉，6月份，我国债券市场共发行各类债券87939.5亿元。截至6月末，我国 债券市场托管余额188.5万亿元。 此外，截至6月末，境外机构在中国债券市场的托管余额4.3万亿元，占中国债券市场托管余额的比重为 2.3%。其中，境外机构在银行间债券市场的托管余额4.2万亿元。（记者任军 吴雨） ...

6月份，银行间债券市场现券成交34.3万亿元，日均成交1.7万亿元，同比减少1.2%，环比增加6.2%。单 笔成交量在500-5000万元的交易占总成交金额的48.0%，单笔成交量在9000万元以上的交易占总成交金 额的45.8%，单笔平均成交量4290.6万元。交易所债券市场现券成交3.8万亿元，日均成交1905.4亿元。 商业银行柜台债券成交11.9万笔，成交金额995.6亿元。 三、债券市场对外开放情况 6月份，沪市日均交易量5104.4亿元，环比增加8.6%；深市日均交易量7969.0亿元，环比增加11.5%。 7月31日，央行公布2025年6月份金融市场运行情况。 一、债券市场发行情况 6月份，债券市场共发行各类债券87939.5亿元。国债发行15903.9亿元，地方政府债券发行11753.2亿 元，金融债券发行10738.7亿元，公司信用类债券发行14257.3亿元，信贷资产支持证券发行247.2亿元， 同业存单发行34569.3亿元。 截至6月末，债券市场托管余额188.5万亿元。其中,银行间市场托管余额166.7万亿元，交易所市场托管 余额21.9万亿元。分券种来看，国债托管余额37.2万亿元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on July 30 analyzed the current economic situation and deployed economic work for the second half of the year. The subsequent policy direction is expected to further support the economy, and the bond market is expected to enter a recovery phase [11][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - The Political Bureau's statement on the economy is positive, with GDP growing by 5.4% and 5.2% year-on-year in Q1 and Q2 respectively, exceeding the annual target of around 5%. However, the economy still faces structural issues, and policies will further support the economy to prevent systemic risks [11]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy continues to be proactive and may increase efforts at appropriate times. The issuance of government bonds in the first half of the year was rapid, and if the net financing rhythm from January to May is maintained, the annual issuance limit may be reached in August [2][12]. 3.3 Monetary Policy - The meeting adheres to a "moderately loose" monetary policy, aiming to maintain ample liquidity and lower the comprehensive social financing cost. Bank deposit rates may be further reduced in the second half of the year [3][13]. 3.4 Industry Clearance - The policy will continue to standardize market competition, specifically targeting over - capacity in key industries and regulating local government investment promotion behaviors [4][14]. 3.5 Consumption and Investment - Consumption policies will support both commodity and service consumption and expand the scope of service consumption support. The "Two - Major" construction will stimulate private investment, as the previous intensive issuance of government bonds did not lead to a rapid increase in infrastructure investment [5][15][17]. 3.6 Real Estate - Real estate policies will focus on stabilizing the market rather than stimulating it. "Urban renewal" may be an important measure to increase potential demand [6][18]. 3.7 Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to enter a recovery phase. With continuous liquidity and stable market expectations, 10 - year and 30 - year government bonds are expected to return to their pre - adjustment levels of 1.65% and 1.85% respectively [7][19].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department announced a significant increase in net borrowing for Q3 2025, projecting over $1 trillion, up from the previously expected $554 billion, aligning with Wall Street analysts' forecasts [1][3] - This announcement follows the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act on July 4, which raised the total borrowing limit by $5 trillion, allowing the Treasury to issue new debt [3] - As of July 3, government cash reserves were only $313 billion, less than half of the amount from the previous year, highlighting the need for increased borrowing [3] Group 2 - The Treasury expects net borrowing for Q4 2025 to reach $590 billion, indicating ongoing pressure on the U.S. government's ability to service debt and maintain spending [3] - The upcoming financing announcement from the Treasury will detail the structure of this borrowing, including the timing and distribution of bond issuances, which is anticipated to significantly impact the bond market [3] - There is a general expectation that the Treasury will keep long-term bond issuance stable while increasing short-term Treasury bill sales, which may lead to greater volatility in short-term interest rates [3] Group 3 - The tax cuts implemented during the Trump administration have resulted in reduced federal tax revenues, creating long-term pressure on fiscal income [3] - Although recent increases in tariff revenues have somewhat alleviated this pressure, the sustainability of high tariff income remains uncertain due to changes in international trade agreements [3]

Group 1: Core Views - The US Treasury's borrowing expectation in Q3 exceeds $1 trillion, an 82% increase, and debt issuance accelerates after the debt ceiling is raised; the auction of 5-year US Treasury bonds is unexpectedly weak, with overseas demand hitting a three-year low. China-US economic and trade talks begin in Stockholm, Sweden. China introduces a child-raising subsidy policy of 3,600 yuan per child per year for infants under 3 years old. The China Securities Regulatory Commission aims to consolidate the market's stable and positive trend, deepen reforms to stimulate the vitality of the multi-level market, and strengthen the foundation from both the asset and capital sides. Against the backdrop of a significant drop in anti-involution-related futures, the CSRC's call for strengthening the foundation, and high technical indicators, market sentiment may cool down, but with continuous hot topics in the sector, the slow bull trend of stock indices remains unchanged, and stock indices may fluctuate. Short-term defensive waiting is advisable [1]. - Attention should be paid to whether important meetings will bring incremental demand-side policies. If the demand side can be repaired under the support of policies to absorb the pressure of the current cost increase, it may still be unwise to be overly optimistic about the bond market [3]. Group 2: Strategy Recommendations - For stock indices, consider defensive waiting [2]. - For treasury bonds, expect a weakening trend with fluctuations [4]. Group 3: Market Review Stock Indices - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.16%, those of SSE 50 rose 0.36%, those of CSI 500 rose 0.09%, and those of CSI 1000 fell 0.04% [6]. Treasury Bonds - The 10-year main contract rose 0.18%, the 5-year main contract rose 0.13%, the 30-year main contract rose 0.56%, and the 2-year main contract rose 0.04% [7]. Group 4: Technical Analysis Stock Indices - The RSI indicator shows that the broader market has a risk of correction [6]. Treasury Bonds - The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [7]. Group 5: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-07-28 | CSI 300 Continuous | 4,122.00 | 0.16 | 54,638 | 156,735 | | 2025-07-28 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,805.80 | 0.36 | 28,883 | 60,762 | | 2025-07-28 | CSI 500 Continuous | 6,222.00 | 0.09 | 46,353 | 108,139 | | 2025-07-28 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6,602.00 | -0.04 | 116,079 | 180,433 | | 2025-07-28 | 10-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.40 | 0.18 | 78,985 | 187,839 | | 2025-07-28 | 5-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.72 | 0.13 | 71,923 | 148,362 | | 2025-07-28 | 30-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 118.78 | 0.56 | 120,609 | 120,283 | | 2025-07-28 | 2-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.36 | 0.04 | 43,197 | 101,434 | [8]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department expects to net borrow over $1 trillion in Q3 2025, significantly higher than the previous estimate of $554 billion [1] - The new borrowing figure of $1.007 trillion aligns with Wall Street analysts' predictions, with estimates ranging from $960 billion to $1.087 trillion [1] - This announcement follows the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act, which raised the borrowing limit by $5 trillion, allowing the Treasury to issue new debt [1] Group 2 - For Q4 2025, the Treasury anticipates net borrowing of $590 billion, indicating ongoing high financing needs amid pressures to repay existing debt and maintain fiscal spending [2] - The upcoming refunding announcement is highly anticipated by Wall Street, as it has become a focal point for market strategies since the significant increase in borrowing was announced in 2023 [2] - The Treasury is expected to maintain long-term bond issuance while increasing short-term Treasury bill sales, which may expose the government to greater short-term interest rate volatility [2] Group 3 - Maintaining stable long-term debt issuance allows the Treasury to "buy time" in anticipation of potential future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - The tax cuts from the Trump administration have resulted in reduced federal revenue, creating long-term pressure on fiscal income [3] - Although tariff revenues have surged recently, there is uncertainty regarding the sustainability of these high levels due to fluctuating trade agreements [3]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a surge in new fund issuances, with 31 new funds launched this week alone, indicating a competitive environment among fund managers [1] - A total of 782 new funds have been established this year, with a combined issuance of 6229.80 billion units, showcasing strong market activity [2] - The majority of new funds this year are bond funds, which account for 48.08% of total issuance, reflecting a shift in investor preference towards fixed-income products [2] Group 2 - Notable fund managers are launching significant products, such as those managed by Han Chuang, Cui Chenlong, and Ma Fang, which may signal confidence in the market [1] - The largest equity fund launched this year is the Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board Comprehensive Linkage A, with an issuance of 48.92 billion units, highlighting investor interest in technology sectors [3] - Market outlook remains optimistic, with expectations for continued high levels of fund issuance and a potential upward trend in the market as risk appetite increases [4]