Market Performance - The three major US stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.27%, the S&P 500 down 0.13%, and the Nasdaq down 0.07% [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Tesla rising over 2% and Oracle up over 1%, while Microsoft and Nvidia fell over 1% [1] - Most popular Chinese concept stocks saw gains, with NIO up over 8%, Baidu up over 7%, JD.com and iQIYI up over 3%, and Alibaba up over 2% [1] European Market - All three major European stock indices closed lower, with Germany's DAX down 1.77%, France's CAC40 down 1%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.88% [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures up 0.23% at $3727.5 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 0.19% to $42.88 per ounce [1] - International oil prices surged, with the main US oil contract rising 1.97% to $64.55 per barrel, and the main Brent crude contract up 1.56% to $68.49 per barrel [1] Currency and Debt Markets - The US dollar index fell 0.73% to 96.65, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 149 basis points against the dollar to 7.1041 [1] - US Treasury yields collectively declined, with the 2-year yield down 3.15 basis points to 3.495%, the 3-year yield down 2.49 basis points to 3.469%, the 5-year yield down 1.56 basis points to 3.585%, the 10-year yield down 0.58 basis points to 4.028%, and the 30-year yield down 0.19 basis points to 4.652% [1] - European bond yields rose across the board, with the UK 10-year yield up 0.6 basis points to 4.638%, France's 10-year yield up 1 basis point to 3.486%, Germany's 10-year yield up 0.2 basis points to 2.691%, Italy's 10-year yield up 0.4 basis points to 3.475%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 0.5 basis points to 3.246% [1]

Well, joining me now is Bridge Corano, Wellington fixed income portfolio manager. Bridge, what do you expect to really move the bond market tomorrow. I mean, we assuming we get the quarter point everybody expects there's going to be a lot of contention among uh the Fed voters, possibly more than we've ever had.>> Yeah, no doubt. I mean, I think we are definitely going to get that 25 basis point cut. Um I think there will probably be three descents to your point asking for 50 basis points.What the market's r ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bond market is currently focused on finding opportunities for rebound in oversold conditions, with a recommendation to engage in medium to long-term interest rate bonds for trading [1] - The recent bond market has experienced a noticeable upward fluctuation in yields, with a steepening yield curve, primarily due to stronger stock market performance and rising inflation or economic recovery expectations [1][1] - The investment strategy for credit bonds suggests focusing on high-grade, medium to short-term credit bonds to achieve stable interest income, as the yield fluctuations have been relatively small [1] Group 2 - The bond market is expected to remain in a weak oscillating pattern in the future, with upward pressure on bond prices due to sustained stock market performance and higher market risk appetite [1]

中金研究 8月数据显示[1]需求继续回落，仍在寻底中。生产端来看，工业增加值、服务业生产指数同比5.2%、5.6%（7月分别为5.7%、5.8%）。需求 端来看，8月社零同比3.4%（7月为3.7%），连续第三个月回落，但季调环比上升0.17%（7月为-0.13%）。餐饮同比两个月改善，商品同比 下降，主要受以旧换新类商品同比贡献继续下降影响，或与需求前置和补贴资金限制有关。固定资产累计同比由7月的1.6%进一步下滑至 0.5%，季调环比-0.2%（7月为-0.5%），降幅略有收窄。建筑安装工程仍然是主要拖累项，累计同比拖累固定资产投资1.6个百分点，较1-7 月扩大1.0个百分点，而设备工器具投资累计同比拉动固定资产投资2.1个百分点，较1-7月下降0.1个百分点。这也与分行业投资变化相一 致，1-8月房地产、基建、制造业投资累计同比-12.9%、5.4%、5.1%，分别较1-7月下降0.9、1.9、1.2个百分点。 向前看，宏观经济和政策走势如何？对各类资产有何影响？中金公司总量以及行业为您联合解读。 宏观： 需求仍在寻底中 8 月数据显示需求继续回落，仍在寻底中。社零增长进一步放缓，结构延续 7 月特征 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - On September 15, government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.21% to 115.400, the 10-year main contract up by 0.12% to 107.805, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.07% to 105.655, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.01% to 102.376 [1] - The yields on major interbank interest rate bonds initially decreased before rising, with the 10-year China Development Bank bond yield increasing by 0.25 basis points to 1.937%, and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.35 basis points to 1.793% [1] Group 2: Policy Changes - The China Interbank Market Dealers Association announced the optimization of the debt financing tool mechanism for mature enterprises, reducing the issuance hanging time to one working day and extending the validity period of the first-class enterprise registration notice from two years to three years [2] Group 3: Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a 2800 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on September 15, with a net injection of 885 billion yuan after accounting for 1915 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing on the same day [4] - The central bank has continued to increase the amount of buyout reverse repos for four consecutive months, with a net injection of 3000 billion yuan in September [4] Group 4: Regional Developments - Zhengzhou is focusing on clearing overdue payments to enterprises, with plans to utilize national debt policies to secure more bond quotas for settling debts [5] - Hangzhou aims to achieve a zero financing platform target by the end of this year, enhancing debt risk monitoring capabilities [6] Group 5: Issuance Activities - Zhengzhou Zhongying Investment Development Group completed the issuance of 100 million yuan of medium-term notes with an interest rate of 2.57% [7] - Henan Silicon Valley New Materials Technology Company plans to issue up to 500 million yuan in private placement notes [8] - Zhejiang Provincial Transportation Investment Group is set to issue 30 billion yuan in public bonds, with a credit rating of AAA [10] Group 6: Corporate Changes - The controlling shareholder of Lanzhou Lanshi Group has changed to Gansu Provincial State Investment Group [12] - CIFI Group's restructuring plan for 100.6 billion yuan of domestic bonds has been approved by bondholders [13] Group 7: Market Sentiment - CITIC Construction Investment expects long-term interest rates to fluctuate widely and potentially rise slowly, suggesting a cautious approach to bond market investments [17] - Huatai Fixed Income Research highlights the need to monitor potential rebound opportunities in the bond market after October [18] - China Merchants Fixed Income advises against aggressive buying during any potential bond market rebound, emphasizing a cautious stance [20]

Key Points - The article discusses the recent trends in China's export and inflation data, highlighting a decline in export growth and a potential recovery in PPI due to improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries [3][4] - It notes the tightening of funding prices, with a net withdrawal of 440.2 billion yuan from the central bank's open market operations, leading to a slight increase in DR007 to around 1.48% [4] - The primary market is expected to see a gradual decrease in supply pressure, with a total issuance of 74 bonds amounting to 632.5 billion yuan during the reporting period [5] - The secondary market is experiencing upward pressure, influenced by a strong equity market and adjustments in fund redemption fees, which may negatively impact bond investments [5] - The outlook indicates that both domestic and external demand pressures remain significant, with a focus on fiscal policies aimed at strengthening domestic circulation and potential central bank actions to support liquidity [6][7]

Group 1 - The report indicates that global equity markets experienced a broad rally, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rising by 3.89% over the week, marking five consecutive weeks of gains, while the MSCI Developed Markets Index increased by 1.47% [4][9] - In the domestic market, all three major indices showed positive performance, driven by policy expectations and a focus on technology sectors, with only five out of 31 industries declining [4][9] - The report highlights that only bond ETFs recorded negative average weekly returns, while other types of ETFs achieved positive returns, particularly in stock and cross-border ETFs [4][9] Group 2 - The report notes a shift in market focus from the battery industry chain back to the artificial intelligence industry chain, particularly emphasizing the semiconductor sector due to a significant contract between Oracle and OpenAI [13][14] - The securities index continued to attract capital, with a net inflow of 61.43 billion yuan this week, following an 80 billion yuan inflow the previous week, indicating strong investor interest in this sector [14][16] - The report suggests that investors should consider taking profits in certain indices that have reached high valuations, while maintaining cash reserves for better investment opportunities [13][14] Group 3 - The report categorizes bond ETFs, noting that convertible bond ETFs performed well with an average increase of 0.24%, while the bond market adjusted due to the strong performance of the stock market [18][20] - The report mentions that the People's Bank of China released financial data indicating a significant year-on-year decrease in entity credit growth, which may pressure the growth rate of social financing [18][20] - It is suggested that if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates as expected in September, it could create more room for further rate reductions in China, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the bond market [18][20] Group 4 - The report highlights that leveraged funds continue to rise, but the proportion of ETF financing is close to historical lows, with a preference for more stable convertible and pure bond ETFs [22][23] - The net financing purchases for ETFs tracking convertible bonds and exchangeable bonds were the highest this week, with 4.1 billion yuan for convertible bond ETFs and 3.4 billion yuan for policy financial bonds [22][23] - The report identifies specific stock ETFs that attracted leveraged funds, including those linked to the Chinese Internet 50, Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drugs, and new energy batteries [22][23]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.59%, the S&P 500 down 0.05%, and the Nasdaq up 0.44% [1] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Tesla up over 7%, Microsoft and Apple up more than 1%, Facebook up 0.62%, Nvidia up 0.37%, Google up 0.18%, and Amazon down 0.78% [1] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with JinkoSolar up over 6%, Century Internet up more than 5%, Bilibili up over 4%, Weibo up nearly 3%, and Baidu up over 2%. On the downside, Douyu fell over 4%, Kingsoft Cloud down nearly 3%, Wuxi AppTec down nearly 3%, Yum China down over 2%, and Tencent Music down over 2% [1] - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX down 0.02%, France's CAC40 up 0.02%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.15% [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.19% at $3680.70 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.26% at $42.68 per ounce [1] - International oil prices saw slight increases, with the main US oil contract up 0.37% at $62.60 per barrel and Brent crude up 0.77% at $66.88 per barrel [1] - London base metals all rose, with LME zinc up 1.93% at $2956.00 per ton, LME nickel up 1.52% at $15380.00 per ton, LME lead up 1.13% at $2019.00 per ton, LME aluminum up 1.03% at $2701.00 per ton, LME tin up 0.74% at $34955.00 per ton, and LME copper up 0.13% at $10064.50 per ton [1] Bond Yields - US Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 2-year yield up 0.99 basis points at 3.549%, the 3-year yield up 1.94 basis points at 3.527%, the 5-year yield up 3.81 basis points at 3.633%, the 10-year yield up 4.57 basis points at 4.070%, and the 30-year yield up 2.69 basis points at 4.681% [1] - European bond yields rose across the board, with the UK 10-year yield up 6.5 basis points at 4.670%, France's 10-year yield up 6.6 basis points at 3.505%, Germany's 10-year yield up 6 basis points at 2.713%, Italy's 10-year yield up 7 basis points at 3.517%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 6 basis points at 3.284% [1]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on September 10, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 304 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - The total amount of reverse repos maturing on the same day was 229.1 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 74.9 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The overnight repo weighted average rate for deposit-taking institutions slightly increased, remaining above 1.42% [2] - The overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.40% [2] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market was around 1.6775% [7] Group 4: Government Bonds - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a decline across all maturities, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 0.86% [13] - The yield for 1-year government bonds was reported at 1.4100% [10] Group 5: Economic Indicators - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year [14] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) was flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [14] Group 6: Bond Market Developments - The second batch of Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs is set to be issued on September 12, with a fundraising cap of 3 billion yuan for each of the 14 products [14] - Recent negative events in the bond market included overdue debts from various companies, with a total overdue debt of 31.212 billion yuan reported for Longguang Holdings as of the end of August [17]

Company News - Sunflower is planning to acquire the controlling stake in Xi Pu Materials and 40% stake in Bei De Pharmaceutical, with the stock suspended from trading starting September 8 [1] - CATL launched the world's highest safety level power battery technology NP3.0, which can maintain over one hour of high-pressure continuous power supply during thermal runaway situations [4] - ST Busen announced plans to sell 35% of its stake in Shaanxi Busen to Nantong Erfangji, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [4] - Nanxin Technology intends to issue convertible bonds to raise up to 1.933 billion yuan for various chip development projects [5] - Jidian Co. received renewable energy subsidy funds totaling 913 million yuan in August, with a total of 1.271 billion yuan received from January to August, marking a 154.2% increase year-on-year [6] Industry News - The 25th China International Investment and Trade Fair will be held in Xiamen from September 8 to 11 [2] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported that China's foreign exchange reserves reached 33,222 billion USD by the end of August, an increase of 29.9 billion USD from the end of July [3] - The People's Bank of China reported that UnionPay and Wanglian processed 2.76996 trillion payment transactions in July and August, with a year-on-year growth of 14.59% in transaction volume [3]