Monetary Market Summary - In 2025, the average daily transaction volume of interbank lending was 361.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.1% compared to 2024 [1] - The average daily transaction volume of bond repurchase in the interbank market was 6.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.0% compared to 2024 [1] - By the end of 2025, the outstanding balance of interbank lending was 1 trillion yuan, while the outstanding balance of bond repurchase in the interbank market was 12 trillion yuan [1] - The annual weighted average interest rate for overnight pledged repos (DR001) was 1.46%, down 19 basis points from 2024; DR007 was 1.63%, also down 19 basis points; and the overnight pledged repo (R001) was 1.55%, down 21 basis points [1] Bond Market Summary - In 2025, net financing for government bonds reached 13.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5 trillion yuan compared to 2024; net financing for corporate bonds was 2.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 482.3 billion yuan [1] - By the end of 2025, the bond market custody balance was 196.7 trillion yuan [1] - The total transaction volume in the cash market was 425.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.4% compared to 2024 [2] - The turnover rate of the interbank bond market was 230%, a decrease of 25 percentage points from 2024 [2] - The yield on 10-year government bonds at the end of 2025 was 1.85%, with a yield spread of 51 basis points between 10-year and 1-year government bonds, narrowing by 8 basis points from the end of 2024 [2] Stock Market Summary - By the end of 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.8 points, an increase of 18.4% compared to the end of 2024; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13525.0 points, an increase of 29.9% [2] - The average daily transaction volume in both markets was 1.70454 trillion yuan, an increase of 61.9% compared to 2024 [2]

北京商报讯（记者 董晗萱）2月11日，人民银行官网发布2025年金融市场运行情况。2025年，政府债券 净融资13.8万亿元，较2024年增加2.5万亿元；企业债券净融资2.4万亿元，较2024年增加4823亿元。截 至2025年末，债券市场托管余额196.7万亿元。 截至2025年末，境外机构在中国债券市场的托管余额为3.5万亿元，占中国债券市场托管余额的比重为 1.8%。2025年，熊猫债券累计发行1830.6亿元，新增56家境外机构进入银行间债券市场。 2025年，现券市场成交额425.3万亿元，较2024年增加1.4%；银行间债券市场现券换手率为230%，较 2024年下降25个百分点；10年期国债活跃券买卖价差为0.44个基点。2025年末，10年期国债收益率为 1.85%；10年期与1年期国债收益率利差为51个基点，较2024年末收窄8个基点；3年期AAA级中期票据 收益率与3年期国债收益率的利差为51个基点，较2024年末收窄4个基点。 ...

人民财讯2月11日电，央行发布2025年金融市场运行情况。2025年，政府债券净融资13.8万亿元，较 2024年增加2.5万亿元；企业债券净融资2.4万亿元，较2024年增加4823亿元。截至2025年末，债券市场 托管余额196.7万亿元。 2025年，现券市场成交额425.3万亿元，较2024年增加1.4%；银行间债券市场现券换手率为230%，较 2024年下降25个百分点；10年期国债活跃券买卖价差为0.44个基点。2025年末，10年期国债收益率为 1.85%；10年期与1年期国债收益率利差为51个基点，较2024年末收窄8个基点；3年期AAA级中期票据 收益率与3年期国债收益率的利差为51个基点，较2024年末收窄4个基点。 ...

Group 1: Money Market Operations - In 2025, the average daily transaction volume of interbank lending was 361.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.1% compared to 2024 [1] - The average daily transaction volume of bond repurchase in the interbank market was 6.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.0% compared to 2024 [1] - By the end of 2025, the outstanding balance of interbank lending was 1.0 trillion yuan, while the outstanding balance of bond repurchase in the interbank market was 12.0 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Bond Market Operations - In 2025, net financing for government bonds reached 1.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 250 billion yuan compared to 2024 [5] - Net financing for corporate bonds was 240 billion yuan, an increase of 48.23 billion yuan compared to 2024 [5] - The bond market's custody balance was 196.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2025 [5] Group 3: Derivatives Market Operations - The transaction volume of the RMB derivatives market in the interbank market was 58.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 58.6% compared to 2024 [11] - The transaction volume of government bond futures was 9.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 43.9% compared to 2024 [11] - The closing price of the 10-year government bond futures main contract was 107.9 yuan, a decrease of 1.0% compared to the end of 2024 [11] Group 4: Commercial Paper Market Operations - In 2025, the acceptance amount of commercial bills was 42.7 trillion yuan, while the discount amount was 33.9 trillion yuan [13] - By the end of 2025, the acceptance balance of commercial bills was 21.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2% compared to the end of 2024 [13] - The discount balance was 16.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.2% compared to the end of 2024 [13] Group 5: Stock Market Operations - By the end of 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.8 points, an increase of 18.4% compared to the end of 2024 [15] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13525.0 points, an increase of 29.9% compared to the end of 2024 [15] - The average daily transaction volume of both markets was 1.70454 trillion yuan, an increase of 61.9% compared to 2024 [15] Group 6: Bond Market Holder Structure - As of the end of 2025, there were 3923 institutional members in the interbank bond market, all of which were financial institutions [30] - The top 50 investors in corporate credit bonds held 53.4% of the total, mainly concentrated in state-owned commercial banks, public funds, and insurance financial institutions [30] - The top 200 investors held 84.5% of the total bonds [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [6]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is in a narrow - range corridor. In the short term, the bond market sentiment may remain warm before the Spring Festival, but attention should be paid to the key resistance level. In the medium term, the bond market may face headwinds, and caution is needed when participating in ultra - long - term bond assets [7]. - In 2026, the local bond market will "front - load" issuance, and funds will be focused on new infrastructure construction, urban renewal and public services, intelligent upgrading of traditional major infrastructure, resolving stock debt risks, and industrial upgrading and national security - related fields [8][9][10][11]. - In 2026, the global attractiveness of Chinese fixed - income assets may increase, but the allocation power of overseas investors may not be the decisive factor affecting the bond yield trend [12]. - In the context of a volatile domestic stock market, investors can focus on four bond market allocation opportunities: the allocation and trading value of interest - rate bonds, the coupon advantage of high - quality credit bonds, the enhanced elasticity opportunity of convertible bonds, and the diversification value of international allocation [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Central Economic Work Conference and Monetary Policy in 2026 - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts (the current average legal deposit reserve ratio is 6.3%) and interest rate cuts (stable RMB exchange rate, narrowing bank net interest margin, and maturing long - term deposits) [6] 1.2 Bond Market Pattern in 2026 - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.8% - 1.9%. In the short term, the bond market sentiment may be warm before the Spring Festival, but attention should be paid to the 1.80% resistance level. In the medium term, the bond market may face headwinds, and caution is needed when participating in ultra - long - term bond assets [7] 1.3 Inclination of Local Bond Market Scale in 2026 - Funds will be focused on new infrastructure construction (related to new technologies), urban renewal and public services, intelligent upgrading of traditional infrastructure, resolving stock debt risks (about 6 trillion special refinancing bonds for debt replacement will be basically issued), and industrial upgrading and national security - related fields [8][9][10][11] 1.4 Global Attractiveness of Chinese Fixed - Income Assets in 2026 - Chinese fixed - income assets can effectively diversify risks in a global asset portfolio. With the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, their global attractiveness may increase, but the influence of overseas investors may not be decisive [12] 1.5 Bond Market Allocation Opportunities in 2026 - Interest - rate bonds: Provide a stable foundation for portfolio construction and trading opportunities for investors with certain trading abilities [15] - High - quality credit bonds: Focus on high - quality urban investment bonds in economically strong regions and industrial bonds in strategic industries [16] - Convertible bonds: Select bonds related to policy - supported sectors and pay attention to valuation [17] - International allocation: Chinese interest - rate bonds can attract foreign capital, and some high - quality Chinese dollar bonds can be a useful supplement [18]

Group 1 - The total scale of credit bond ETFs is 513.8 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 600 million yuan, where the benchmark market-making ETF decreased by 280 million yuan and the Sci-Tech bond ETF increased by 550 million yuan [1] - The median weighted duration is 3.2 years, and the overall transaction amount is 121 billion yuan, with an average single transaction amount of 3.76 million yuan [1] - The median yield is 1.89%, and the median discount rate is -15.4 basis points, with the benchmark market-making at -13.7 basis points and the Sci-Tech bond at -16.8 basis points [1] Group 2 - As of February 10, 2026, the company bond ETF (511030) rose by 0.04%, achieving three consecutive increases, with the latest price at 107.03 yuan and a one-year cumulative increase of 1.51% [4] - The liquidity of the company bond ETF shows a turnover of 5.11% and a transaction volume of 1.748 billion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 2.977 billion yuan over the past week [4] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 34.247 billion yuan, a new high in nearly a year, with the latest share count at 320 million, also a new high in six months [4] Group 3 - The company bond ETF has a management fee rate of 0.15% and a custody fee rate of 0.05% [5] - The tracking error of the company bond ETF for the year to date is 0.006%, closely tracking the China Bond - Medium to High Grade Corporate Bond Spread Factor Index [5] - The index is based on AAA-rated corporate bonds and is adjusted quarterly, providing a benchmark for investment performance in medium to high-grade corporate bonds [5]

Group 1 - The bond market has recently shown signs of structural recovery, with the 10-year government bond yield falling below the critical level of 1.8%, attracting market attention [1] - Multiple macro-financial variables have positively changed, supporting the recovery of the bond market, including a significant drop in short-term liquidity rates and stable insurance fund allocations [2] - The bond market's overall performance has remained stable despite fluctuations in other asset classes, indicating a return to its safe-haven asset characteristics [3] Group 2 - There is a growing divergence in opinions regarding the future downward potential of bond yields, with some institutions believing that current yield levels have already priced in rate cut expectations [4] - The support for bond yields has weakened as they approach the 1.8% mark, with the market's focus shifting to whether policy rates will be adjusted downwards [5] - Despite the upcoming holiday and potential market uncertainties, there remains a demand for holding bonds, although caution is advised due to the volatility and supply pressures expected post-holiday [6]

固 定 收 益 华福证券 2026 年 02 月 09 日 节后债市或延续节前趋势 1.8%或由阻力变支撑 团队成员 投资要点： 固 定 上周利率债表现偏强。尽管周初 10 年国债新券短暂突破 1.8%后受止 盈情绪影响再度调整，但此后在大行的持续买入下，10 年国债也经受住了 风险偏好修复、地方债集中发行等因素的扰动，此后随着交易情绪回暖利 率再度走低，10 年期国债利率再度降至 1.8%附近，10 年政金债以及 30 年 国债的下行幅度更大。随着春节临近，也有部分投资者关注长假因素是否 会对市场趋势带来扰动。 收 益 专 题 从历史看，节后债市的表现一般都是节前趋势的延续。过去单数年份 利率容易在春节前后上行，但双数年份利率反而多在春节前后下行，唯一 的例外是 2022 年利率在节前回落、节后走高，但这一年的特殊性在于央行 在节前降息落地，节后利率在止盈情绪和对信贷的担忧下出现了上行。之 所以呈现出这样的状态，主要还是因为岁末年末市场往往都对市场的状态 进行了充分定价，市场结构会得到一定程度的出清，而年初货币政策的导 向往往也会根据新一年的目标进行调整，而这样的调整一般也不会因为春 节因素发生变化，后续的 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 315 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total bid and winning amount of 315 billion yuan [1] - Additionally, a 3000 billion yuan 14-day reverse repurchase operation was carried out, with a total of 6000 billion yuan in 14-day reverse repos conducted over two days to support the liquidity during the Spring Festival [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market is experiencing a more relaxed funding environment, with the weighted average rate of DR001 dropping over 4 basis points to around 1.27% [3] - Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system fell to 1.25%, indicating ample supply, while non-bank institutions borrowed overnight against credit bonds at rates below 1.5% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 3.65% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market is around 1.590% [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank rate bonds have mostly decreased, with specific yields for various maturities showing declines, such as the 1-year government bond yield at 1.3125% and the 10-year yield at 1.8010% [10] - The data indicates a general downward trend in yields across different types of bonds, including government bonds and policy bank bonds [10] Group 5: Recent Economic Indicators - The Asian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January 2026 is reported at 51%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector [14] - The global manufacturing PMI increased by 1.5 percentage points to 51% in January [14] Group 6: Global Monetary Policy - The European Central Bank has maintained its benchmark interest rate, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate cuts since June of the previous year, with officials closely monitoring the impact of euro appreciation on export competitiveness and inflation [16]

中债指数 统计及分析月报 2025年12月 业务联系方式 产品获取：400-898-8989 指数编制：021-60813551、010-88174257 质量控制：021-60813562、021-60813561 咨询投诉邮箱：cbpc_complaints@chinabond.com.cn 中债金融估值中心有限公司 中债金融估值中心有限公司 债市动态及中债指数走势 2025年债券市场回顾 2025年，债券市场持续平稳健康发展。表征境内债券市场的中债-新综合指数全年持有收益1.81%、价 格收益-1.16%，指数全年总收益获0.65%。利率债中，长端利率债全年持有收益更高，在价格收益上稍 有逊色，总体呈现出久期越长，价格收益越负、总收益越低的特点。信用债同样受到利率波动上行的影 响，但因为久期较短价格下跌幅度比利率债小，总收益相对较好。其中，中债-短融AAA指数由于价格收 益的正贡献，全年收益达1.82%，略好于其他代表性宽基信用债指数。全年信用债市场整体信用利差进 一步收敛，信用债指数的利差收益贡献都为正，部分弥补了利率上行带来的价格下跌。主题指数中，中 债-投资优选绿色债券指数和中债-AAA科技创新债 ...