Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and trade risks, with prices currently stabilizing around key support levels while awaiting a stronger upward movement [1][4][9]. Price Movement - On May 19, gold opened at $3218 per ounce, reached a low of $3206.49, and a high of $3249.60, closing at $3230.09, marking a daily increase of $12.09 or 0.38% [1]. - Compared to the previous week's closing price of $3198.78, gold rose by $31.31, reflecting a 0.98% increase [2]. Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The market is influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions and President Trump's comments on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, alongside Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating, which has heightened market risk aversion [4][9]. - The potential for renewed negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has reduced immediate demand for gold as a safe haven, contributing to price volatility [4][9]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a strong resistance level, with the price remaining above the 5-10 month moving averages and a significant trendline support [6][11]. - The weekly chart shows that gold has not breached the 10-week moving average, suggesting a potential for a wide-ranging consolidation phase, with a focus on the $3100-$3440 range [13]. - The daily chart indicates that gold has rebounded from the ascending trendline and 60-day moving average support, with expectations for further upward movement as long as these support levels hold [15]. Market Outlook - The overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic for gold prices to strengthen in the future, despite the current lack of strong bullish catalysts [8][9]. - The market will continue to be influenced by trade agreements and geopolitical developments, with gold expected to maintain a volatile trading pattern [6][9].

张尧浠：关税出尽地缘风险升级、金价回踩支撑待涨攀升 黄金市场上周：国际黄金触底回升收线，未能跌破10周均线及上升趋势线支撑，故此后市，则有望维持在此支撑上方宽幅区间震荡，或者再度走强攀升。 具体走势上，金价自周初低开34美金至3294.82美元/盎司，便直接先行录得当周高点3305.91美元，之后连续走低跳水，于周四触及趋势线看涨支撑及60日 均线支撑等交点处，也既是当周低点3120.73美元，触底回升，强势拉升反弹，但仍遭遇一定阻力，而周五仍有所走弱运行，最终收于3198.78美元； 相对于开盘价，周振幅185.18美元，收跌96.04美元，跌幅2.91%。 相对于前周收盘价3328.85美元，周振幅208.12美元，收跌130.07美元，跌幅3.91%。 影响上，受到周末中美关税合谈和地缘局势乐观消息的影响，金价当周大幅低开并维持走低，之后，又在美国与其他国家的贸易关税协议接近达成，贸易 乐观情绪继续升温，以及美国表示不会在关税谈判中寻求弱势美元，打压金价进一步走低触及当周低点； 但由于关税压力影响有限，触及的低点又是强劲的看涨支撑，同时，美国4月CPI年率下降，提升了年内的降息预期，特朗普继续呼吁降息， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [6] Core Viewpoints - Short - term focus is on economic fact verification, and long - term attention is on stagflation allocation. The market sentiment has warmed up due to the substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations, and subsequent attention should be paid to the implementation progress of the negotiations and the sensitive commodities. Global trade policy games also need attention, and there are impacts on trade and inflation expectations [2][3][5] Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. The central bank launched ten monetary policy measures in three categories, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.1 - percentage - point policy interest rate cut. The financial regulatory administration will introduce eight incremental policies, and the CSRC will "continuously stabilize and activate the capital market" [2] - In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 21% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8% year - on - year. Labor - intensive product exports were significantly impacted [2] - From May 9 - 12, Vice Premier He Lifeng held talks with the US during his visit to Switzerland. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, and the two sides promised to suspend some additional tariffs and establish a consultation mechanism, which significantly warmed up the market sentiment [2] - Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation progress of Sino - US negotiations and commodities sensitive to this event, such as crude oil, container shipping index, and gold [2] Global Trade Policy Game - On May 8, the UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade agreement terms, with a "tax rate + quantity" restriction idea. The UK's exports to the US will face a minimum 10% tariff, and specific products may have export limits. For example, the first 100,000 cars exported from the UK to the US each year will be taxed at an additional 10% tariff rate, and the excess will be taxed at an additional 25% tariff rate [3] - This "tax rate + quantity" restriction idea will have an obvious impact on global trade, and the key lies in the negotiation process with other countries. The US - Japan and US - South Korea tariff negotiations may take a long time, and Japan requires the cancellation of automobile tariffs and adheres to the zero - tariff demand [3] - The long - term inflation expectation has been slightly revised downwards. If the weighted average import tariff rate is adjusted down, the pressure on long - term inflation will also be reduced [3] US FOMC Meeting - The US May FOMC meeting statement maintained the target interest rate unchanged. The economic outlook uncertainty "further" increased, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased. Powell emphasized that the Fed will not rush to cut interest rates [4] Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the tariff increase event first trades the decline in demand and then trades the increase in inflation. Industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals need to be vigilant against the emotional impact from the adjustment of the US stock market [5] - An accident at the Antamina copper mine in Peru has supported copper prices. Agricultural product prices are more likely to rise due to tariffs, and China has stopped purchasing US soybeans and corn since mid - January and increased purchases from Brazil [5] - Crude oil prices have declined. OPEC + confirmed on May 3 that it will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June and may continue the current production increase rhythm in July, with a shift in strategy from production restriction to market share competition. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas and liquefied natural gas by the end of 2027 [5] - Due to the high uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy and the continuous game of global trade policies, the risk of a gold price correction needs to be vigilant [5] Sino - US Economic and Trade Talks - The joint statement of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks pointed out that the US will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, suspending the implementation of 24% tariffs within the initial 90 days and retaining the remaining 10% tariffs. China will make corresponding modifications to the tariffs on US goods, and both sides will take measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures [8] - The two sides will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations, and consultations can be held in China, the US, or a third country agreed by both sides [8] Japan's Stance on US Tariff Negotiations - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru reiterated his stance in the negotiations with the US, demanding the cancellation of all additional tariffs, especially those on automobiles, and insisting on the zero - tariff demand [3][8]

5月12日，中美日内瓦经贸会谈取得历史性突破，中方通报称取得"实质性进展"。 一起看看近期酒类资讯！ 当地时间5月10日至11日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔在瑞士日内瓦举行中美经贸 高层会谈。双方围绕落实今年1月17日中美元首通话重要共识进行了坦诚、深入、具有建设性的沟通，在经贸领域达成一系列重要共识。 当地时间5月12 日上午9：00，双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。 商务部：中美取消91%的关税 美方承诺取消根据2025年4月8日第14259号行政令和2025年4月9日第14266号行政令对中国商品加征的共计91%的关税，修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政 令对中国商品加征的34%的对等关税，其中24%的关税暂停加征90天，保留剩余10%的关税。相应地，中方取消对美国商品加征的共计91%的反制关税； 针对美对等关税的34%反制关税，相应暂停其中24%的关税90天，剩余10%的关税予以保留。中方还相应暂停或取消对美国的非关税反制措施。 本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取 ...

略研 策略点评报告 中美经贸谈判取得实质性进展彰显中国力量 投资要点: > 事件:当地时间5月10日至11日,中美双方在瑞士日内瓦举行经贸高 层会谈,会谈达成了一系列重要共识;5月12日,中美双方发表日内瓦经 贸会谈联合声明,共同修改或取消相关关税,并建立机制,继续就经贸关 系进行协商。 > 我们认为此次中美经贸谈判取得了实质性进展,体现了中国捍卫全球 自由贸易体系的坚强决心,也彰显了中国不断上升的国家力量。此前美国 滥征所谓"对等"关税后,中国是第一个反制所谓"对等"关税的国家, 团队成员 策略点评报告 2025年5月12日 果客点评报 通过此次经贸磋商中,中美双方进行的坦诚、深入、具有建设性的交流, 最终取得了实质性进展,达成了重要共识。这样的结果来之不易,有利于 中美双方,有利于全球经济,也有利于全球资本市场的稳定。 > 风险提示:美国后续关税承诺未兑现 相关报告 1、《历史上的供给侧改革,对市场影响几何?》 2024. 6.1 2、《黄金这轮回调会有多深?》 分析师 朱斌 执业证书编号:S0210522050001 邮箱:zb3762@hfzq.com.cn 2024. 5. 26 3、《继续聚焦"轻 ...

SHMET 网讯： 清明节后铜价因受美国"对等关税"政策的利空打击而快速探底，但随后不断传出缓和消息，且有来自供需面的提振，铜价逐步反弹回升，弥补前期缺口；4 月底后呈窄幅波动走势，上方压力依然明显。 宏观情绪缓和中略谨慎 现货端供应略偏紧 国内精铜库存降势未止，截止上周四，SMM铜社库降至12.01万吨，较五一节前降0.95万吨，实现连续10周周度去库，较年内高点及去年同期均明显回落。 上周，上期所铜总库存下降8602吨至8.07万吨，仓单数量下降9001吨至1.92万吨，而期货上05合约的持仓尚有3.7万手，虚实比较高。现货供给偏紧张，上周 升水快速冲高，同时期货上back结构较为突出，对铜价有较强的带动。LME铜库存也呈降势，注册仓单在11万吨左右，0-3现货升水也逐步抬升，至50美元/ 吨左右，关注可能的挤仓风险。COMEX铜库存快速增长至16万吨左右，注册仓单则徘徊于8.6万吨上下。 5月10日至11日，中美经贸代表于瑞士进行会谈，会后中方代表表示，此次会谈达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展，关注后续声明，可能会对有色市场情绪 有一定提振。此前，美英已就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，未掀起大的波澜，市场更多 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 翁榕涛 实习生 张欣 广州报道 周内（5月6日至5月9日），大宗商品期货收跌为主，集运欧线、碳酸锂延续领跌，能源板块燃油、原油 小幅上涨。 市场机构对于原油后续走势出现了一定分歧。 混沌天成期货持悲观态度，其在研报指出，"目前原油仍然在大的空头叙事之下，关税和美国消费者信 心下滑利空全球经济，同时OPEC+成员产量态度偏松，预计中美难以达成贸易协议，而特朗普访问沙 特或进一步确保OPEC+宽松的产量政策，油价因为贸易缓和预期反弹后，或因关税的实际冲击显现重 回跌势。但短期欧盟对俄罗斯的潜在制裁存在不确定性，需观察其是否会对供应产生重大影响。" 宏源期货詹建平相对乐观，认为短期仍然以反弹修复看待油价。原因一，是沙特对OPEC+内部的施压 开始生效，周中哈萨克斯坦改口称将考虑履行减产义务，OPEC+进一步加速增产的必要性或减弱；原 因二，关税谈判开始取得进展，英美达成初步框架协议，中美也将于近期就关税进行正式接触，虽然关 税谈判存在反复的可能，但短期进一步恶化的可能性已较小，市场的风险偏好处于改善的过程中。 就国内期货市场具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周上涨1.24%、原油上涨0.28%，碳酸 ...

据央视财经报道，就美国对部分英国汽车加征关税税率降至10%，日本首相石破茂11日表示，日本寻求 美国取消加征汽车关税，而不是降到10%这一百分比。5月8日，英国和美国就关税贸易协议条款达成一 致。英国政府发布官方声明称，英国汽车出口至美国的关税将从27.5%降至10%，钢铁和铝关税从25% 降至零。(环球时报) ...

申银万国期货表示，英国和美国就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，英国将对美商品关税从5.1%降至 1.8%，美国则维持对英进口商品10%的统一关税不变，英国将进一步放宽对美商品市场准入，特朗普表 示协议最终细节将在接下来几周内敲定。5月利率会议上美联储继续按兵不动，鲍威尔多次提及未来失 业率和通胀的上升风险，表明持续的观望态度。短期内美联储难有明确表态，当前关注重心在贸易谈判 进展和新的经济数据表现上。5月开始公布的经济数据将逐渐反馈关税冲击带来的影响，预计数据将呈 现更将明显的滞胀态势。首个贸易协议有望达成令风险情绪有所好转，但地缘冲突和央行购金需求继续 提供支撑，整体上黄金或延续偏强整理表现。 五矿期货表示，当前的美联储货币政策预期以及海外关税风险的释放对于贵金属价格形成短线的利空因 素，但从美国财政赤字的扩张进程来看，黄金价格中期上涨驱动仍未发生变化，建议等待价格出现明显 回调后逢低布局多单，沪金主力合约参考运行区间767-836 元／克，在联储鹰派货币政策表态的背景 下，白银价格将会表现偏弱。 新华财经北京5月9日电国际金价本周宽幅震荡，技术上看，3200美元和3450美元成为COMEX黄金短期 主要支撑和压 ...

黄金，突然V形上涨。加密货币方面，以太坊暴涨超20%。 Coinglass网站数据显示，在过去24小时内，加密货币共有超21万人爆仓。 最新消息面上，虽然英国和美国已经就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，但央视新闻报道，欧盟委员会8日就反制美国关税的商品清单启动公众咨询。与此同 时，针对美国所谓的"对等关税"以及对汽车整车和零部件的关税政策，欧盟将向世贸组织提起诉讼。 欧盟指出，如果与美国进行的谈判未能达成互利结果、促使美方取消关税，欧盟可能对这些美国进口商品采取反制措施。 黄金V形上涨 今日，现货黄金开盘下跌，不过午后突然V形反弹，截至发稿涨0.6%，一度突破3332美元，而之前一度跳水跌近1%。 对于此前黄金走低的原因，有机构进行了分析， 其中，华泰期货指出，随着特朗普对于施征高额关税以及对于美联储主席鲍威尔的态度有所缓和，市场 对于未来不确定性的风险计价也暂时走低，黄金价格冲高回落。 | | 排名 | 市神 | 价格 | 价格(24h%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 | 1 | B BTC | $103636.2 | +4.46% | | 3 | 2 | ETH ...