黄金开盘受到阻力压制，以及隔夜尾盘的震荡回撤之力，先行表现走弱； 另外，本周数据较少，影响有限，走势将继续依托关税贸易及地缘局势方向的指引进行波动。其在两者 不确和变化无常的情况下，金价将维持震荡走盘并偏走强，反之如表现缓和乐观，金价将回落再探上升 趋势线支撑位置。 日图；金价在如期触及上升趋势线支撑和60日均线支撑位置展开反弹，虽然未能进一步延续动力走强攀 升，但连续收取的触底形态，则暗示后市仍有进一步向上突破阻力的预期，那么后市在不跌破60日及上 升趋势线支撑前，仍将继续等待打破近日调整行情反弹走强。 分析；日内无重点关注数据及事件，可留意次日凌晨1点的2025年FOMC票委、圣路易联储穆萨莱姆就 经济前景和货币政策发表讲话。根据之前表达的，通胀上行与就业市场走弱风险并存，货币政策需保持 警惕的不确定前景观点来看，预计也仍对金价产生一定的利好。 另外，美元指数日图开盘，也延续昨日尾盘回升之力，先行表现走强，对其产生压力，整体上，走势维 持近期的震荡上行趋势发展，目前未能跌破支撑，而仍有继续走强触及200日均线阻力目标的预期，而 会对金价造成压力，使其维持震荡走盘。 但由于周图，上周冲高回落，有暗示反弹触顶 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and trade risks, with prices currently stabilizing around key support levels while awaiting a stronger upward movement [1][4][9]. Price Movement - On May 19, gold opened at $3218 per ounce, reached a low of $3206.49, and a high of $3249.60, closing at $3230.09, marking a daily increase of $12.09 or 0.38% [1]. - Compared to the previous week's closing price of $3198.78, gold rose by $31.31, reflecting a 0.98% increase [2]. Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The market is influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions and President Trump's comments on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, alongside Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating, which has heightened market risk aversion [4][9]. - The potential for renewed negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has reduced immediate demand for gold as a safe haven, contributing to price volatility [4][9]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a strong resistance level, with the price remaining above the 5-10 month moving averages and a significant trendline support [6][11]. - The weekly chart shows that gold has not breached the 10-week moving average, suggesting a potential for a wide-ranging consolidation phase, with a focus on the $3100-$3440 range [13]. - The daily chart indicates that gold has rebounded from the ascending trendline and 60-day moving average support, with expectations for further upward movement as long as these support levels hold [15]. Market Outlook - The overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic for gold prices to strengthen in the future, despite the current lack of strong bullish catalysts [8][9]. - The market will continue to be influenced by trade agreements and geopolitical developments, with gold expected to maintain a volatile trading pattern [6][9].

张尧浠：关税出尽地缘风险升级、金价回踩支撑待涨攀升 黄金市场上周：国际黄金触底回升收线，未能跌破10周均线及上升趋势线支撑，故此后市，则有望维持在此支撑上方宽幅区间震荡，或者再度走强攀升。 具体走势上，金价自周初低开34美金至3294.82美元/盎司，便直接先行录得当周高点3305.91美元，之后连续走低跳水，于周四触及趋势线看涨支撑及60日 均线支撑等交点处，也既是当周低点3120.73美元，触底回升，强势拉升反弹，但仍遭遇一定阻力，而周五仍有所走弱运行，最终收于3198.78美元； 相对于开盘价，周振幅185.18美元，收跌96.04美元，跌幅2.91%。 相对于前周收盘价3328.85美元，周振幅208.12美元，收跌130.07美元，跌幅3.91%。 影响上，受到周末中美关税合谈和地缘局势乐观消息的影响，金价当周大幅低开并维持走低，之后，又在美国与其他国家的贸易关税协议接近达成，贸易 乐观情绪继续升温，以及美国表示不会在关税谈判中寻求弱势美元，打压金价进一步走低触及当周低点； 但由于关税压力影响有限，触及的低点又是强劲的看涨支撑，同时，美国4月CPI年率下降，提升了年内的降息预期，特朗普继续呼吁降息， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [6] Core Viewpoints - Short - term focus is on economic fact verification, and long - term attention is on stagflation allocation. The market sentiment has warmed up due to the substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations, and subsequent attention should be paid to the implementation progress of the negotiations and the sensitive commodities. Global trade policy games also need attention, and there are impacts on trade and inflation expectations [2][3][5] Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. The central bank launched ten monetary policy measures in three categories, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.1 - percentage - point policy interest rate cut. The financial regulatory administration will introduce eight incremental policies, and the CSRC will "continuously stabilize and activate the capital market" [2] - In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 21% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8% year - on - year. Labor - intensive product exports were significantly impacted [2] - From May 9 - 12, Vice Premier He Lifeng held talks with the US during his visit to Switzerland. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, and the two sides promised to suspend some additional tariffs and establish a consultation mechanism, which significantly warmed up the market sentiment [2] - Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation progress of Sino - US negotiations and commodities sensitive to this event, such as crude oil, container shipping index, and gold [2] Global Trade Policy Game - On May 8, the UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade agreement terms, with a "tax rate + quantity" restriction idea. The UK's exports to the US will face a minimum 10% tariff, and specific products may have export limits. For example, the first 100,000 cars exported from the UK to the US each year will be taxed at an additional 10% tariff rate, and the excess will be taxed at an additional 25% tariff rate [3] - This "tax rate + quantity" restriction idea will have an obvious impact on global trade, and the key lies in the negotiation process with other countries. The US - Japan and US - South Korea tariff negotiations may take a long time, and Japan requires the cancellation of automobile tariffs and adheres to the zero - tariff demand [3] - The long - term inflation expectation has been slightly revised downwards. If the weighted average import tariff rate is adjusted down, the pressure on long - term inflation will also be reduced [3] US FOMC Meeting - The US May FOMC meeting statement maintained the target interest rate unchanged. The economic outlook uncertainty "further" increased, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased. Powell emphasized that the Fed will not rush to cut interest rates [4] Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the tariff increase event first trades the decline in demand and then trades the increase in inflation. Industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals need to be vigilant against the emotional impact from the adjustment of the US stock market [5] - An accident at the Antamina copper mine in Peru has supported copper prices. Agricultural product prices are more likely to rise due to tariffs, and China has stopped purchasing US soybeans and corn since mid - January and increased purchases from Brazil [5] - Crude oil prices have declined. OPEC + confirmed on May 3 that it will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June and may continue the current production increase rhythm in July, with a shift in strategy from production restriction to market share competition. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas and liquefied natural gas by the end of 2027 [5] - Due to the high uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy and the continuous game of global trade policies, the risk of a gold price correction needs to be vigilant [5] Sino - US Economic and Trade Talks - The joint statement of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks pointed out that the US will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, suspending the implementation of 24% tariffs within the initial 90 days and retaining the remaining 10% tariffs. China will make corresponding modifications to the tariffs on US goods, and both sides will take measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures [8] - The two sides will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations, and consultations can be held in China, the US, or a third country agreed by both sides [8] Japan's Stance on US Tariff Negotiations - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru reiterated his stance in the negotiations with the US, demanding the cancellation of all additional tariffs, especially those on automobiles, and insisting on the zero - tariff demand [3][8]

Group 1: US-China Trade Talks - The US and China achieved a historic breakthrough in trade talks, with both sides reporting "substantial progress" [1][3] - The US committed to canceling 91% of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, while China reciprocated by canceling 91% of its retaliatory tariffs [3] - The agreement includes a 90-day suspension of 24% of the tariffs, with 10% of the tariffs remaining in place [3] Group 2: Wine Industry Developments - Château Lafite Rothschild has launched its 2024 vintage at a price approximately 30% lower than previous years, making it the lowest-priced Lafite vintage currently on the market [4][6] - The merger between Accolade Wines and Pernod Ricard's wine business has resulted in the formation of a new company, Vinarchy, which will phase out about 50 brands over the next two years [8][9] - Tmall International has seen a 38% increase in sales of Bordeaux wines, with over 700,000 Chinese consumers purchasing Bordeaux wines through the platform [13] - IWSR predicts that global online wine sales will exceed $36 billion by 2028, with a projected growth of 20% over the next five years [16] - Treasury Wine Estates is collaborating with CSIRO to cultivate new grapevine varieties that are more resilient to climate change and have disease-resistant traits [19]

略研 策略点评报告 中美经贸谈判取得实质性进展彰显中国力量 投资要点: > 事件:当地时间5月10日至11日,中美双方在瑞士日内瓦举行经贸高 层会谈,会谈达成了一系列重要共识;5月12日,中美双方发表日内瓦经 贸会谈联合声明,共同修改或取消相关关税,并建立机制,继续就经贸关 系进行协商。 > 我们认为此次中美经贸谈判取得了实质性进展,体现了中国捍卫全球 自由贸易体系的坚强决心,也彰显了中国不断上升的国家力量。此前美国 滥征所谓"对等"关税后,中国是第一个反制所谓"对等"关税的国家, 团队成员 策略点评报告 2025年5月12日 果客点评报 通过此次经贸磋商中,中美双方进行的坦诚、深入、具有建设性的交流, 最终取得了实质性进展,达成了重要共识。这样的结果来之不易,有利于 中美双方,有利于全球经济,也有利于全球资本市场的稳定。 > 风险提示:美国后续关税承诺未兑现 相关报告 1、《历史上的供给侧改革,对市场影响几何?》 2024. 6.1 2、《黄金这轮回调会有多深?》 分析师 朱斌 执业证书编号:S0210522050001 邮箱:zb3762@hfzq.com.cn 2024. 5. 26 3、《继续聚焦"轻 ...

SHMET 网讯： 清明节后铜价因受美国"对等关税"政策的利空打击而快速探底，但随后不断传出缓和消息，且有来自供需面的提振，铜价逐步反弹回升，弥补前期缺口；4 月底后呈窄幅波动走势，上方压力依然明显。 宏观情绪缓和中略谨慎 现货端供应略偏紧 国内精铜库存降势未止，截止上周四，SMM铜社库降至12.01万吨，较五一节前降0.95万吨，实现连续10周周度去库，较年内高点及去年同期均明显回落。 上周，上期所铜总库存下降8602吨至8.07万吨，仓单数量下降9001吨至1.92万吨，而期货上05合约的持仓尚有3.7万手，虚实比较高。现货供给偏紧张，上周 升水快速冲高，同时期货上back结构较为突出，对铜价有较强的带动。LME铜库存也呈降势，注册仓单在11万吨左右，0-3现货升水也逐步抬升，至50美元/ 吨左右，关注可能的挤仓风险。COMEX铜库存快速增长至16万吨左右，注册仓单则徘徊于8.6万吨上下。 5月10日至11日，中美经贸代表于瑞士进行会谈，会后中方代表表示，此次会谈达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展，关注后续声明，可能会对有色市场情绪 有一定提振。此前，美英已就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，未掀起大的波澜，市场更多 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 翁榕涛 实习生 张欣 广州报道 周内（5月6日至5月9日），大宗商品期货收跌为主，集运欧线、碳酸锂延续领跌，能源板块燃油、原油 小幅上涨。 市场机构对于原油后续走势出现了一定分歧。 混沌天成期货持悲观态度，其在研报指出，"目前原油仍然在大的空头叙事之下，关税和美国消费者信 心下滑利空全球经济，同时OPEC+成员产量态度偏松，预计中美难以达成贸易协议，而特朗普访问沙 特或进一步确保OPEC+宽松的产量政策，油价因为贸易缓和预期反弹后，或因关税的实际冲击显现重 回跌势。但短期欧盟对俄罗斯的潜在制裁存在不确定性，需观察其是否会对供应产生重大影响。" 宏源期货詹建平相对乐观，认为短期仍然以反弹修复看待油价。原因一，是沙特对OPEC+内部的施压 开始生效，周中哈萨克斯坦改口称将考虑履行减产义务，OPEC+进一步加速增产的必要性或减弱；原 因二，关税谈判开始取得进展，英美达成初步框架协议，中美也将于近期就关税进行正式接触，虽然关 税谈判存在反复的可能，但短期进一步恶化的可能性已较小，市场的风险偏好处于改善的过程中。 就国内期货市场具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周上涨1.24%、原油上涨0.28%，碳酸 ...

据央视财经报道，就美国对部分英国汽车加征关税税率降至10%，日本首相石破茂11日表示，日本寻求 美国取消加征汽车关税，而不是降到10%这一百分比。5月8日，英国和美国就关税贸易协议条款达成一 致。英国政府发布官方声明称，英国汽车出口至美国的关税将从27.5%降至10%，钢铁和铝关税从25% 降至零。(环球时报) ...

申银万国期货表示，英国和美国就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，英国将对美商品关税从5.1%降至 1.8%，美国则维持对英进口商品10%的统一关税不变，英国将进一步放宽对美商品市场准入，特朗普表 示协议最终细节将在接下来几周内敲定。5月利率会议上美联储继续按兵不动，鲍威尔多次提及未来失 业率和通胀的上升风险，表明持续的观望态度。短期内美联储难有明确表态，当前关注重心在贸易谈判 进展和新的经济数据表现上。5月开始公布的经济数据将逐渐反馈关税冲击带来的影响，预计数据将呈 现更将明显的滞胀态势。首个贸易协议有望达成令风险情绪有所好转，但地缘冲突和央行购金需求继续 提供支撑，整体上黄金或延续偏强整理表现。 五矿期货表示，当前的美联储货币政策预期以及海外关税风险的释放对于贵金属价格形成短线的利空因 素，但从美国财政赤字的扩张进程来看，黄金价格中期上涨驱动仍未发生变化，建议等待价格出现明显 回调后逢低布局多单，沪金主力合约参考运行区间767-836 元／克，在联储鹰派货币政策表态的背景 下，白银价格将会表现偏弱。 新华财经北京5月9日电国际金价本周宽幅震荡，技术上看，3200美元和3450美元成为COMEX黄金短期 主要支撑和压 ...