Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The latest manufacturing PMI in May remained below 50, indicating the impact of tariffs on the domestic economy, but China's economic resilience is strong. Overseas, the US-EU tariff war has escalated, and there is still significant uncertainty in China-US tariff negotiations, which suppresses the A-share market. The upcoming Lujiazui Forum is expected to release financial policies, providing some support to the index. In the short term, the index faces both upward pressure and downward support, and a breakthrough requires external certainties or new domestic favorable policies. The recommended strategy is to hold positions and wait and see [6] Market Review - The stock index opened lower and closed higher today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 0.31%. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 2231 million yuan. All stock index futures rose with increased volume [4] Important Information - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points. The new export order index and import index increased by 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points respectively, and the foreign trade situation of some US-related enterprises improved [5] - US President Trump announced raising the import steel tariff from 25% to 50% starting from June 4. The EU is in the final consultation on expanding countermeasures, and if no solution is reached, existing and additional measures will take effect on July 14 or earlier [5] - The US Trade Representative's Office extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China from May 31 to August 31 [5] Index Futures Data Futures Market | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.11 | 7.5192 | -1.3852 | 23.6192 | 0.5468 | | IH | 0.05 | 4.0069 | -0.9296 | 8.1877 | 0.1863 | | IC | 0.33 | 6.938 | -0.909 | 21.3655 | 0.6257 | | IM | 0.68 | 16.4487 | -2.3121 | 32.1122 | 0.3188 | [7] Spot Market | Indicator | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.43 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 0.16 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 1.90 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 11414.09 | | Trading Volume MoM (100 million yuan) | 22.31 | [7]

欧佩克+原油出口不升反降！供应预期存在偏差，地缘溢价短期加持，多头将迎来新一轮机会，如何识 别最佳入场时机？关税风波再起，市场反应路径生变，风险资产面临不对称风险。解读市场宏观信息差 >> 原油周初强势拉升，6月剧本需要改写？ 相关链接 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: With the easing of the EU - US trade war and the decline of the US dollar, the gold price is expected to rise. The premium of Shanghai gold remains at around 5 yuan/gram. Due to potential tariff issues and fluctuations in the US tax - cut bill, the gold price remains bullish [4]. - Silver: As the EU - US trade war eases and the US dollar falls, the silver price will oscillate upwards. The premium of Shanghai silver converges to around 520 yuan/kg. With optimistic trade negotiations, the silver price will fluctuate [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Gold: The EU - US trade war eased, the US stock market was closed, most European stock markets rose, the US dollar index fell 0.15% to 98.98, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly, and COMEX gold futures fell 0.7% to $3342.2 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The EU - US trade war eased, the US stock market was closed, most European stock markets rose, the US dollar index fell 0.15% to 98.98, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.11% to $33.645 per ounce [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold** - Basis: The gold futures price is 777.3, the spot price is 774.33, and the basis is - 2.97, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures, a neutral signal [4]. - Inventory: The gold futures warehouse receipts are 17,247 kg, unchanged, a bearish signal [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, a neutral signal [4]. - Main Position: The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force is decreasing, a bullish signal [4]. - **Silver** - Basis: The silver futures price is 8280, the spot price is 8243, and the basis is - 37, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures, a neutral signal [6]. - Inventory: The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 957,380 kg, a daily decrease of 3261 kg, a neutral signal [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, a bullish signal [6]. - Main Position: The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force is decreasing, a bullish signal [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Economic data: The preliminary value of US durable goods orders in April, the US housing price index in March [4]. - Speeches: Speeches by the Governor of the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve members [4]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold** - Bullish factors: Global turmoil leading to high - risk aversion, rising stagflation expectations in the US and renewed expectations of interest - rate cuts, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to resurgent inflation, and tariff concerns [14]. - Bearish factors: Cessation of interest - rate cuts and improved economic expectations, less - than - expected European fiscal expansion with the US taking the lead again, deterioration of risk appetite, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [14]. - Logic: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation shifted to a recession expectation, and the gold price was difficult to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government continued, and the gold price sentiment was high, remaining prone to rise and difficult to fall [10]. - **Silver** - Bullish factors: Similar to gold, and the tariff on non - ferrous metals supports the silver price [14]. - Bearish factors: Similar to gold [14]. - Logic: The silver price mainly follows the gold price. Tariff concerns have a stronger impact on the silver price, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [13]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold** - Shanghai Gold Top 20 Positions: On May 26, 2025, the long - position volume was 202,103, an increase of 1.22% from May 25; the short - position volume was 81,225, a decrease of 1.55%; and the net position was 120,878, an increase of 3.17% [27]. - SPDR Gold ETF: The ETF position is oscillating and decreasing [31]. - Warehouse Receipts: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts show a certain trend, and the COMEX gold warehouse receipts are slightly decreasing but still at a high level [35][36]. - **Silver** - Shanghai Silver Top 20 Positions: On May 26, 2025, the long - position volume was 469,661, an increase of 1.13% from May 23; the short - position volume was 321,277, an increase of 2.00%; and the net position was 148,384, a decrease of 0.69% [29]. - Silver ETF: The ETF position continues to increase, higher than the same period last year [34]. - Warehouse Receipts: The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts are slightly increasing, higher than the same period last year, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts are decreasing [38].

金十数据5月23日讯，有分析师表示，特朗普关税风波卷土重来，引发美元抛售，加之美国国债与全球 收益率走低，亦拖累美元走势。在特朗普威胁将对苹果加征关税，随后又谈及将从6月1日起对欧盟征收 关税后，避险资产集体上涨，因在新的关税威胁下，避险需求迅速升温。分析师称，特朗普对欧盟的关 税威胁唤醒了欧元兑美元的看空者，此外，美元空头很可能在周五进一步发力。 分析师：特朗普新的关税言论及即将到来的假日引发新一轮美元抛售 ...

5月12日，中美经贸高层会谈达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。市场担忧情绪有所缓和，当天中国、 美国、欧洲等全球主要股票市场指数纷纷上涨，原油期货亦大幅上涨，黄金等避险资产则出现大幅下 跌。13日，亚太股市多数开盘继续走强。 当天，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大涨5.40%，创4月4日以来新高。热门中概股普涨，跑赢大盘，其中小鹏 汽车、哔哩哔哩涨幅超7%，理想汽车、京东集团、拼多多涨超6%，阿里巴巴、蔚来、百度涨超5%。 截至5月12日收盘，美股三大股指大幅收涨，纳指涨4.35%，道指涨2.81%，标普500指数涨3.26%。美国 科技"七巨头"均收涨，其中亚马逊、脸书、特斯拉、苹果、英伟达涨幅均超过5%。 彭博社称，大型科技股的飙升，使纳斯达克100指数重回涨势。一个月前，该指数曾较之前高位累计暴 跌20%。 数据来源：Wind 欧洲三大股指全线收涨。德国DAX指数涨0.29%，法国CAC40指数涨1.37%，英国富时100指数涨 0.59%。 此外，当天彭博美元指数收盘上涨1%，是自特朗普赢得总统大选以来的最佳表现。投资者押注美联储 今年晚些时候将放缓降息步伐，美国国债收益率上升。 5月12日，金价大幅回调，国际油 ...

据悉，红利ETF（510880）、红利低波ETF（512890）是目前A股市场仅有的两只百亿元红利主题ETF 品种，最新规模分别达218.44亿元、158.36亿元。受益于标的指数成分股2025年来现金分红水平的持续 提升，截至4月30日，红利指数、红利低波指数的最新股息率（近12个月）分别为6.90%、6.59%，高于 近十年93.79%、95.93%的时间。（数据来源：交易所、Wind、上市公司公告） 当地时间2025年5月7日，美联储将公布最新利率决议。在"关税风波"尚未渐息之际，美联储政策的不确 定性或同样成为近期扰动市场的主要因素之一，随着市场情绪反复拉锯，资金对具备较强防御属性红利 类资产颇为青睐。 其中，目前A股市场两只百亿级红利主题类ETF头部品种——红利ETF（510880）、红利低波ETF （512890）交投高度活跃，4月30日全日成交额分别为3.57亿元、8.08亿元，较前一交易日大幅增长 46%、188%。（数据来源：交易所） 年初以来（截至2025年4月30日），红利ETF（510880）、红利低波ETF（512890）累计吸引6.4亿元、 22.4亿元资金净流入，红利低波ETF（ ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The commitment from a state-owned bank in Shenzhen to not withdraw or reduce loans to private enterprises highlights the financial sector's support for foreign trade companies amid external challenges [1] - Shenzhen's foreign trade enterprises have seen a total import and export value of 990.1 billion yuan in Q1 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [1] - The implementation of the "Big Coverage" export credit insurance aims to provide comprehensive support to small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises in Shenzhen [8] Group 2: Financial Support Measures - As of March 2025, loans to foreign trade enterprises in Shenzhen reached 1.1 trillion yuan, with a focus on enhancing financial support for these businesses [1] - Banks are conducting risk assessments and "stress tests" on foreign trade enterprises to evaluate their exposure to potential impacts from U.S. tariffs [2][3] - Various banks are introducing differentiated financial products and services to meet the specific needs of foreign trade enterprises, including "Cross-border E-loan" and "Export E-loan" [5][6] Group 3: Insurance Support - The "Cross-border E-commerce Insurance" initiative has been launched to help e-commerce businesses mitigate risks associated with global trade uncertainties [9][10] - Export credit insurance is being optimized to increase coverage limits for small and micro foreign trade enterprises, enhancing their risk protection [10] - Insurance institutions are prioritizing claims processing for cases related to U.S. tariffs to expedite support for affected enterprises [10]

Group 1 - Bawang Chaji officially listed on NASDAQ with an initial price of $28 per share, opening at $33.75, becoming the first new-style tea beverage company to enter the US market [1] - Liuliu Fruit Garden submitted its prospectus for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, projecting revenues of 1.174 billion, 1.322 billion, and 1.616 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 [1] - LVMH's market value dropped below Hermès after a 7.34% decline in stock price, with LVMH's market cap at approximately 244 billion euros compared to Hermès' 246.9 billion euros [1] Group 2 - Guibao Pet Food Group reported a revenue of 5.245 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.22%, with a net profit of 625 million yuan, up 45.68% [2] - Baoxiniang Group's revenue fell by 1.91% to 5.153 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 29.07% to 495 million yuan, attributed to macroeconomic slowdown and increased expenses [2] - Lawson plans to double its overseas store count to 14,000 by February 2031, focusing on the Asian market to meet rising middle-class demand [2] Group 3 - Nike is opening a new creative studio in Shanghai, aiming to hire around 20 employees to produce content tailored to the Chinese market [3] - Interparfums announced a price increase of 6% to 7% for its fragrance products in the US starting August 1, 2025, due to new tariffs on French imports [3] - Starbucks launched its delivery service on JD.com, becoming the first restaurant brand to integrate its membership system with the platform [4] Group 4 - Hermès announced a price increase across all its business lines in the US starting May 1 to offset new tariffs [4] - Chinese e-commerce platforms like Dhgate and Taobao have seen a surge in downloads in the US, with Dhgate rising from 352nd to 2nd place in app rankings [4][5] - Meituan's Xiaoxiang Supermarket is restarting its offline business, exploring store formats similar to Hema's community stores [5] Group 5 - China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries showing growth rates of 3.5%, 5.9%, and 5.3% respectively [5] - SHEIN and Temu are set to raise prices due to increased operational costs from recent global trade rule changes and tariffs [5] - Xianyu launched a support plan for small foreign trade businesses to facilitate their transition to domestic sales [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply - side production of lead has increased, while the demand side shows weakness. The downstream manufacturers are still waiting and watching. The high foreign inventory restricts the upward movement of lead prices. The short - term rebound of Shanghai lead is expected to end. It is recommended to lightly short the Shanghai lead main contract 2505 at around 17,000 yuan/ton with a stop - loss at 17,300 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,825 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,916.5 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars. The 05 - 06 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was 20 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shanghai lead open interest was 80,572 lots, up 701 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was 1,540 lots, down 458 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 58,378 tons, down 145 tons. The SHFE inventory was 62,646 tons, down 3,150 tons; the LME lead inventory was 257,325 tons, up 9,900 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,725 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market, it was 16,910 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 100 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the LME lead spread (0 - 3) was - 21.91 dollars/ton, up 1.16 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,004 yuan, down 275 yuan. The domestic recycled lead price (≥98.5%) was 16,640 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan. The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, up 3. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 54.41%, up 18.29 percentage points. The monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 72.61%, down 9.58 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.21 tons, down 0.23 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 20 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The global lead mine output was 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons. The lead ore import volume was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory was 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 9,978.57 yuan/ton, down 3.57 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450,000, down 425,000. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, with 2% antimony) was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 1,586.97 points, up 14.02 points. The monthly automobile output was 3.4986 million, up 51,000; the monthly new - energy automobile output was 1.647 million, up 73,000 [2]. Industry News - The US Treasury Secretary said there was no evidence of sovereign investors selling US assets. The EU trade commissioner was in talks in Washington, and progress was made in US - EU tariff negotiations. The New York Fed's 1 - year inflation expectation rose to 3.58%, and the 3 - year expectation remained at 3%. The Fed governor said in a large - scale tariff scenario, earlier and larger - scale interest rate cuts were preferred in case of significant economic slowdown. There were still differences in reaching a Gaza cease - fire agreement. OPEC adjusted down the global crude oil demand growth rate and economic growth rate expectations. JPMorgan Chase lowered the 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast from 73 dollars/barrel to 66 dollars/barrel [2]. View Summary - The supply of recycled refined lead and electrolytic lead increased. The price of 1 lead dropped 100 yuan/ton, and the price of waste batteries in some areas was adjusted by 50 - 200 yuan/ton. The willingness of refined lead holders to sell increased, but most held firm quotes and few sold. The price of recycled refined lead was 100 yuan/ton lower than that of primary lead. Downstream battery manufacturers preferentially purchased primary lead for rigid demand, and the transaction of recycled refined lead was light. In the traditional off - season of April, new orders decreased, and enterprises adopted a production - based - on - sales strategy [2].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "Chinese version of the stabilization fund" signifies a strategic response to external tariff pressures, showcasing China's commitment to maintaining market stability and investor confidence [1][11][20]. Group 1: Strategic Significance of the "Chinese Version of the Stabilization Fund" - The mechanism serves to isolate internal and external risks, effectively countering the impact of external tariffs on the capital market through coordinated actions by central financial institutions [4][11]. - It aims to reshape market pricing logic and investment ecology by guiding funds towards long-term value investments through the continuous purchase of strategic ETFs [11][12]. - The initiative promotes alignment between capital markets and national strategies, accelerating the valuation reconstruction of core assets in emerging industries [12][13]. Group 2: Policy Coordination and Market Response - Multi-departmental collaboration in response to tariff challenges reflects a strong policy determination and confidence, with potential future actions including support for export enterprises and increased consumer spending [19][20]. - The coordinated response sends multiple positive signals, including a commitment to safeguarding national interests and stabilizing market expectations [19][20]. - The combination of monetary, fiscal, and industrial policy tools demonstrates a comprehensive approach to managing market sentiment and reducing irrational decision-making risks [20]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Value in Capital Markets - The current economic resilience and low valuation levels provide a solid foundation for long-term investment in Chinese assets, with expectations of GDP growth exceeding 5% in the first quarter [22][24]. - The shift towards institutional investors and the emphasis on value investment principles are expected to enhance market stability and attract more patient capital [17][22]. - The ongoing structural transformation of the economy, moving from real estate-driven growth to innovation-led development, is anticipated to further enhance the investment value of the capital market [24][33]. Group 4: Global Economic Positioning - China's competitive advantages in the global economy include a vast domestic market, comprehensive industrial capabilities, and a strong emphasis on innovation in key sectors [27][28][30]. - The government's proactive policies and the robust performance of emerging industries are expected to sustain economic growth and attract foreign investment [29][30]. - The focus on high-quality development and the transition to new productive forces will play a crucial role in shaping the future landscape of the capital market [24][33].