Economic Contribution - In the first half of the year, domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52% [1] Nighttime Consumption Initiatives - Shanghai launched a series of activities to stimulate nighttime consumption, including over 50 performances in the Hongqiao Tiandi business district and collaborations with traditional landmarks [1][3] - Chongqing organized over a hundred unique nighttime events, including the Water Sound Festival, and financial institutions offered over 100 million yuan in discounts to boost market consumption [3] - Jiangsu province encouraged nighttime tourism and established 50 nighttime consumption hubs and pedestrian streets [3] - In Zhenjiang, a street district invested over 3 million yuan in lighting upgrades, resulting in a 50% increase in foot traffic [3] Summer Tourism and Activities - Zhejiang province identified 10 summer themes, distributing over 30 million yuan in tourism consumption vouchers to invigorate consumer activity [6] - Zhangjiajie in Hunan province became a popular summer retreat due to its pleasant climate and natural environment, attracting tourists seeking relief from the heat [7][9] Visitor Statistics - Since July, Zhangjiajie Grand Canyon has been receiving an average of 10,000 visitors daily for family summer vacations [13]

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, driven by increased risk appetite and favorable policies, with major indices generally rising [4] - Among the major indices, the Sci-Tech 50 saw the largest increase, while the Shanghai 50 had the smallest gain [4] Industry Performance - In terms of industry performance, sectors such as building materials, coal, and steel performed relatively well, while banking, telecommunications, and public utilities experienced declines [5] Investment Strategy - The current market trend may lean towards "rotating supplementary gains" rather than "stronger strengths," with historical data indicating that both patterns can occur during slow bull markets [6] - The likelihood of a strong economic recovery is low, suggesting that the market will exhibit a "rotating supplementary gains" characteristic [7] - Potential supplementary gain opportunities should focus on sectors that have lagged in performance but have historically shown strong recovery potential [7] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to trend upwards in the second half of the year, with the possibility of reaching new highs, transitioning from policy-driven to fundamentals and liquidity-driven growth [8] - Key investment themes for the medium to long term include domestic consumption, technological self-reliance, and dividend-paying stocks, with specific attention to sectors like AI, robotics, and defense [8]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The latest PPI data for June shows a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, while the month-on-month PPI remained flat, marking a new low since January [1] - Core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy categories, also remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase dropping from 3.2% in May to 2.6% in June [1] - Economic analysts suggest that despite tariffs raising prices of manufactured goods, weak demand has kept overall inflation stable in June [1] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - The decline in air passenger service prices is attributed to a decrease in international tourists traveling to the U.S., which may negatively impact the retail, leisure, and dining sectors, further contributing to economic weakness [1] - The EU is prepared to impose additional tariffs on U.S. imports worth €72 billion (approximately $84 billion) if trade negotiations fail, with a detailed list of 202 pages including high-value goods and everyday items [5] - The UN predicts a 0.5 percentage point decline in global economic growth due to Trump's tariff policies, which have disrupted global supply chains and raised costs [5] Group 3: Market Reactions - Investors are increasingly reallocating their portfolios away from U.S. stocks, favoring markets in Europe, Japan, and other Asian regions, as they reassess their stock allocations [7] - Fidelity International notes a strategic shift in global investment, with a focus on sectors with growth potential and attractive valuations, particularly in Asia [7] - The ongoing uncertainty and rising tariffs are expected to lead to weaker economic growth and sustained high inflation in the U.S. [5][8]

Core Insights - China's GDP growth rate reached 5.3% in the first half of 2025, driven primarily by domestic demand, which contributed 68.8% to GDP growth, and final consumption expenditure, contributing 52% [1] - Per capita GDP in China has surpassed $13,000, with a notable shift towards service consumption, which is experiencing rapid growth [1] - The service retail market is evolving with new consumption models and trends, including personalized and diversified services, indicating a significant transformation in consumer behavior [1] Industry Overview - The service retail industry in China reached a scale of 7 trillion yuan in 2024, with an online penetration rate of only 9% [2] - Meituan has expanded its service retail sector by collaborating with 6.3 million merchants, achieving a year-on-year order volume growth of 77% [2] - In lower-tier cities, service retail transactions have seen an annual compound growth rate exceeding 90% since 2022, with user numbers growing over 60% [2] Consumer Trends - Recent data indicates a sustained increase in demand across various service retail sectors, with significant growth in searches for leisure activities such as hair treatments (122% increase), nail services (105% increase), and KTV (401% increase) [3] - New service offerings like indoor surfing and paddleboarding are gaining popularity among urban youth, reflecting changing consumer preferences [3] - Events like BilibiliWorld2025 have dramatically increased interest in related commercial activities, with some searches rising over 500% [3] Employment Impact - The service sector has added an average of 7.41 million jobs annually over the past decade, with significant employment in industries like massage therapy (700,000), hairstyling (400,000), and beauty services (240,000) [4] - Meituan aims to enhance the online presence of skilled workers in the service retail sector, facilitating better management and business opportunities [4] Future Outlook - The service retail sector is expected to continue its rapid growth, with a projected increase in online penetration to 25% by 2030, leading to the emergence of 300 brands with over a thousand stores [3] - As service consumption quality expectations rise, platforms like Meituan are focusing on diverse online products and technological capabilities to support the transformation of the service retail industry [5] - The ongoing shift towards higher quality service consumption is anticipated to unlock significant potential in the trillion-yuan service retail market [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - Meituan's instant retail daily order volume reached 150 million, with significant growth in rider income. On July 12, the daily order volume surpassed 150 million, with an average delivery time of 34 minutes. Rider daily income increased by 111% year-on-year, with high-frequency riders earning an average of 9,793 yuan per month [2][20]. - The "reciprocal tariff" has been postponed until August 1, with the EU potentially facing a 30% tariff. This unilateral action may increase short-term trade volatility between the US and other countries, but there remains cautious optimism regarding the substantive implementation of existing trade agreements [2][20]. - The report maintains a cautious outlook on trade negotiations, emphasizing the importance of AI and domestic consumption in the current global macroeconomic context. It suggests focusing on Chinese tech leaders and highlights potential investment opportunities in Hong Kong internet leaders, the gaming industry, and the film and cultural tourism sectors [3][21]. Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office this week are "Jurassic World: Rebirth" with 107.08 million yuan (26.3% market share), "Malice" with 73.49 million yuan (18.0%), and "F1: Speeding" with 68.55 million yuan (16.8%) [22][24]. Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games are "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Delta Force." The top three Android games are "Douluo Dalu: Soul Hunting World," "Sausage Party," and "Heartbeat Town" [23][25]. TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcast index are "In the Name of Law" (84.1), "Book of Dreams" (83.4), and "Splendid Blossoms" (82) [26][27]. Variety and Animation - The top variety show is "Running Man Season 9" with a broadcast index of 79.3, followed by "Singer 2025" and "New Rap 2025" [28][30]. The top animation is "Cang Yuan Tu" with a viewership index of 369.3, followed by "Happy Hammer" and "Xian Ni" [29][31].

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery, with major indices mostly rising, particularly the ChiNext Index which increased by 2.4% [13][14][16] - The real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors performed relatively well this week, with respective increases of 6.1%, 4.4%, and 4.0% [16][19][34] - The manufacturing sector is predicted to have the highest mid-year report performance growth, with an estimated year-on-year growth rate of approximately 10.0% [33][34] Group 2 - Industries expected to show high mid-year report performance growth include light industry, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financial sectors, with predicted net profit growth rates of 34.2%, 33.0%, and 19.1% respectively [33][34] - The construction materials, electronics, and telecommunications sectors are anticipated to have significant performance improvement, with expected growth rate improvements of 11.4%, 7.9%, and 6.1% respectively [34][39] - The current mid-year earnings forecast disclosure rate is only 4.1%, indicating limited reference value for investors [39][42] Group 3 - The overall pre-announcement rate for A-share companies is 72%, with many industries showing high pre-announcement rates, particularly in real estate and non-bank financial sectors [39][40] - The environmental protection, transportation, and media sectors are expected to show significant improvement in mid-year earnings forecasts, with respective improvement rates of 139.5pct, 111.0pct, and 96.7pct [41][44] - The market is expected to experience a bullish trend in the second half of the year, with a focus on sectors that are likely to outperform in mid-year reports [57][58]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and management of the Huatai-PB Innovation Upgrade A fund (000566), highlighting its long-term growth but recent underperformance compared to peers. Fund Performance - The fund has achieved a total return of 247.81% since its inception over 11 years ago, with a current net value of 3.41 yuan [2][12]. - In the past year, the fund's performance has been modest, with a gain of 1.06%, while the average for similar funds was 6.12%, ranking it 1691 out of 2301 [12]. - Over the last three years, the fund has declined by 27.94%, compared to an average decline of 8.52% among peers, ranking it 1686 out of 2041 [12]. - The fund's performance over the last two years shows a decline of 18.55%, while peers gained 1.09%, ranking it 1933 out of 2152 [12]. - In the last six months, the fund gained 3.05%, while the average for similar funds was 8.27%, ranking it 1537 out of 2305 [12]. Fund Management - Fund manager Wu Bangdong took over management on June 9, 2023, and has recorded a return of -20.01% during his tenure [3]. - Wu has 7.5 years of experience primarily in equity products, managing a total of 1.38 billion yuan with an annualized return of 2.58% [3]. Market Analysis - Wu's analysis indicates that the A-share market may experience short-term volatility due to tariff uncertainties, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to domestic factors and policy reserves [4]. - The current domestic environment is seen as a source of confidence, with a focus on internal demand and technological breakthroughs [5]. Fund Size and Holdings - The fund's total shares have decreased significantly over the past two to three years, dropping from 6.38 billion shares in Q2 2022 to 1.72 billion shares in Q1 2025, a reduction of over 73% [12][13]. - The fund's holdings are diversified, with major stocks including Ningde Times, Yutong Bus, and BYD, indicating a cautious investment strategy [13].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a steady upward trend in the first week of July, with major indices generally rising and the banking sector reaching new highs [1] - The People's Bank of China issued new anti-money laundering regulations for precious metals and gemstones, requiring institutions to fulfill obligations for cash transactions over 100,000 yuan, which has limited impact on ordinary consumers [1] - Taobao launched a 500 billion yuan subsidy plan to stimulate consumer and merchant spending, resulting in significant increases in business for restaurant chains and small merchants [1] Group 2 - The consumption sector is currently at a historical low in valuation, with government reports emphasizing consumption and plans for long-term special bonds to support consumption upgrades [1] - The domestic consumption theme index rose by 1.15%, slightly outperforming the CSI All Share Index, with significant gains in agriculture, home appliances, and food and beverage sectors [1] - The consumption sector's trading volume decreased, with a year-on-year drop of 14.29%, and the domestic consumption theme index's price-to-book ratio is at 3.4 times, indicating a slight valuation increase [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the upcoming deadline for tariff negotiations, which may increase external trade uncertainties. However, there remains a cautious optimism regarding the substantive implementation of existing trade agreements [2][23]. - The film box office for the first half of 2025 reached 29.231 billion yuan, marking a 22.91% year-on-year increase and the best performance in six years. The top five films were all domestic productions, showcasing the resilience of domestic entertainment consumption and the strengthening of the content ecosystem [2][24]. - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the following areas: 1) Hong Kong internet leaders, 2) the gaming industry, and 3) the film and cultural tourism sector, driven by consumption policies that promote recovery [3][24]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - In the week of June 30 to July 4, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.4%, while the SW Media Index increased by 2.7%, ranking 6th among 31 industries [10][16]. Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films for the week were "Jurassic World: Rebirth" with a box office of 18.175 million yuan, "Detective Conan: The Lone Eye's Residue" with 8.402 million yuan, and "F1: Speeding" with 7.569 million yuan [25][26]. Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games were "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Delta Force," while the top three Android games were "Heartbeat Town," "Honkai: Star Rail," and "Staff Sword Legend" [25][26]. TV Series - The top three TV series based on broadcast index were "In the Name of the Law," "Splendid Blossoms," and "Book Roll Dream" [28][29]. Variety Shows & Animation - The top variety show was "Ha Ha Ha Ha Season 5," followed by "Run, Brother Season 9" and "New Rap 2025" [30]. The leading animation was "Cang Yuan Tu: The Beauty Award" [31].

Group 1 - A-share market is expected to enter a phase of oscillation and upward movement in the second half of 2025, driven by global fundamental improvements and domestic policy support [2][4][5] - Major securities firms are optimistic about the A-share market, highlighting the potential for valuation recovery and sector rotation, particularly in technology, consumer goods, and financial sectors [3][5][6] - The valuation of Chinese assets is undergoing a re-evaluation, with the CSI 800 forward PE TTM stabilizing around 19, indicating a premium over MSCI emerging markets excluding China [3][7] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by loose liquidity and weak demand, similar to the investment peak period of 2020-2021, suggesting that structural growth sectors will be key investment opportunities [4][6] - A-share valuations are at a historical average level, providing a relatively high investment cost-performance ratio compared to developed markets [5][7] - The market is expected to maintain strong support on the valuation front, with a focus on small-cap stocks, technology, and essential consumer goods [7][8] Group 3 - The market is positioned for a long-term slow bull market, with 3400 points seen as a starting point, supported by improved asset quality and valuation environment [8][9] - The focus on domestic demand and self-sufficiency is expected to drive growth in sectors such as AI, robotics, and new energy vehicles, enhancing China's competitive edge globally [10][11] - The potential for a significant bull market is anticipated if macroeconomic conditions align, with historical data suggesting substantial returns during synchronized economic cycles [6][9]