Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that after a prolonged period of sideways movement, China's "transformation bull market" is set to regain momentum and reach new heights, with a focus on technology, brokerage insurance, and consumption sectors [5][6]. Market Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index fell to 3,800 points on November 24, but recent trends indicate a recovery, particularly in the ChiNext Index. The team believes that the market consensus is overly pessimistic regarding policy interpretations, and anticipates a more optimistic outlook for 2026, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and promoting investment [6][10]. - The central economic work conference emphasizes a more proactive fiscal policy and a focus on domestic demand, marking a shift towards stabilizing investment and addressing real estate inventory issues [6][10]. Spring Market Trends - Historical analysis shows that spring market trends typically occur from December to April, with a notable shift in focus from large-cap to small-cap stocks post-Spring Festival. The article highlights the importance of this period for positioning in the market, especially for sectors with strong industrial trends [7][10]. Industry Comparisons - The article identifies key sectors for investment: 1. **Technology Growth**: AI advancements and infrastructure shortages present opportunities in internet, media, and computing sectors, as well as manufacturing with global competitive advantages [8][16]. 2. **Financial Sector**: Capital market reforms are expected to boost brokerage and insurance sectors, enhancing their investment appeal [8][19]. 3. **Cyclical Consumption**: After three years of adjustment, the consumption sector shows signs of recovery, particularly in food and beverage, agriculture, and tourism [8][19]. Thematic Recommendations - **Commercial Aerospace**: The upcoming launch of the Long March 12 rocket and accelerated satellite networking present investment opportunities in aerospace infrastructure and technology [21][22]. - **Energy Transition**: The focus on expanding green energy applications and building a new energy system highlights investment potential in smart grids and new energy storage solutions [23][24]. - **AI Applications**: The push for AI integration across industries suggests significant growth potential in internet and data center sectors [24]. - **Domestic Consumption**: The emphasis on building a strong domestic market and enhancing consumer spending indicates opportunities in sports events, tourism, and emerging consumer goods [25][27].

Group 1: Market Outlook - The report indicates that after a prolonged period of sideways movement, China's "transformation bull market" is expected to regain momentum and reach new heights, with a cross-year offensive already underway [1][3][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell to 3,800 points on November 24, which was seen as a critical position for market recovery, with the ChiNext Index having recently regained lost ground [7][9] - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to consolidate and expand the positive momentum of the economy, calling for a more proactive fiscal policy and a focus on domestic demand [4][8] Group 2: Spring Market Trends - Historical analysis shows that spring market trends typically occur from December of the previous year to April of the current year, with a significant start point around 10-15 trading days before the Spring Festival [9][10] - The report notes that large-cap stocks tend to perform better before the Spring Festival, while small-cap stocks often outperform after the festival due to seasonal liquidity improvements [10][12] - The current market environment, characterized by significant prior adjustments and supportive policies, presents an important window for positioning ahead of the spring market [10][12] Group 3: Industry Comparisons - The report highlights a positive outlook for technology, financial services, and consumer sectors as the market transitions into a cross-year offensive [4][8] - In the technology sector, advancements in AI models and applications are accelerating, with a recommendation for investments in internet, media, computing, and competitive manufacturing sectors [4][8] - The financial sector is expected to benefit from deepened capital market reforms, with recommendations for brokerage and insurance stocks [4][8] - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery after three years of adjustment, with recommendations for low-priced, low-inventory consumer stocks such as food and beverage, agriculture, and tourism services [4][8]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in trading activity for key themes, particularly in commercial aerospace, energy independence, AI applications, and domestic consumption, driven by improved market risk appetite and supportive macroeconomic policies [2][3][5]. Group 2: Commercial Aerospace - The upcoming launch of the Long March 12 reusable rocket and the completion of ground tests for the Tianlong 3 rocket are significant milestones, with China's StarNet completing a network of 127 low-orbit satellites, accelerating its deployment [3][20][25]. - The National Space Administration's action plan for commercial aerospace emphasizes the development of new technologies and products, predicting a tenfold increase in satellite launch demand by 2030 compared to 2024 [3][20][25]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on rocket manufacturing, satellite communication, and new technologies such as reusable rockets [21][25]. Group 3: Energy Independence - The central government emphasizes accelerating the construction of a new energy system and expanding green electricity applications, with a target of 25% non-fossil energy consumption by 2030 [5][22][35]. - The share of clean energy in total installed capacity has reached 60%, with 84% of new capacity in the first ten months of 2025 coming from clean sources [22][35][39]. - Investment directions include smart grids, new energy storage solutions, and nuclear fusion energy [22][35]. Group 4: AI Applications - The report notes significant growth in AI applications, with Alibaba's Qianwen app experiencing a 149.03% increase in monthly active users, leading globally [23][41]. - The government aims for over 70% penetration of new-generation intelligent terminals and systems by 2027, with a target of over 90% by 2030 [23][41]. - Investment opportunities are identified in internet applications across various sectors, including finance, gaming, and government services, as well as in data center power equipment [23][41]. Group 5: Domestic Consumption - The central government is focused on boosting domestic consumption through various initiatives, including enhancing the supply of quality goods and services [5][47]. - New consumption scenarios, such as sports events and winter tourism, are emerging, with the ice and snow sports market projected to exceed 187.5 billion yuan in the 2024-2025 season, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth [47][48]. - Investment recommendations include sectors benefiting from consumption promotion measures, such as tourism, hotels, and sports equipment [47][48].

格隆汇12月11日｜国际货币基金组织总裁格奥尔基耶娃周三在出访北京时，针对"中国未雨绸缪的储蓄 倾向(尤其是年长中国人)，抑制了今年中国的内需消费"这一问题，她要求在场许多中国年轻记者，鼓 励亲友消费。她说："中国依赖你们成为内需的驱动力，你们必须帮助你们的母亲、父亲、祖父母改变 他们的态度，让他们知道花钱、提升中国的消费水准是爱国的表现"。 ...

证券时报记者 安仲文 今年以来，港股市场凭借着低估值、高弹性及稀缺资产的优势，成为全球资金布局的焦点。截至12月9 日，恒生指数以超过26%的年内涨幅领跑全球主要市场，创新药、科技AI、新消费等热点轮流演绎，吸 引南向资金全年净流入近1.4万亿港元。对此，广发港股通优质增长基金经理樊力谨认为，今年港股表 现较好，本质是和其他全球风险资产一样，受益于中、美、欧货币财政双宽松周期的红利。 "复盘今年的港股市场，热点频出，资金在不同板块之间切换的速度较快。广发港股通优质增长年初以 来主要布局在内需龙头股、出口成长股和全球定价的资源品三个方向，取得了较好的收益表现。"樊力 谨对证券时报记者表示。银河证券统计显示，截至12月5日，该产品近一年回报率达59.58%，在港股通 偏股型基金中排名前5%分位（2/43），超越同期业绩比较基准约40个百分点。 樊力谨介绍，广发港股通优质增长持续关注大消费赛道并进行布局。第一是内需板块，围绕那些渗透率 和市占率仍有较大提升空间的赛道，重点布局一到两个关键领域。其中，更为看好那些在行业震荡期选 择夯实品牌价值、持续投入无形资产的龙头公司，有望逆势扩大市场份额，在中周期内实现稳健上行。 ...

今年以来，港股市场凭借着低估值、高弹性及稀缺资产的优势，成为全球资金布局的焦点。截至12月9 日，恒生指数以超过26%的年内涨幅领跑全球主要市场，创新药、科技AI、新消费等热点轮流演绎，吸 引南向资金全年净流入近1.4万亿港元。对此，广发港股通优质增长基金经理樊力谨认为，今年港股表 现较好，本质是和其他全球风险资产一样，受益于中、美、欧货币财政双宽松周期的红利。 樊力谨是广发基金国际业务部基金经理，有9年从业经验，4年公募管理经验。他曾做过4年行业研究， 重点研究港股，也覆盖美国、欧洲、日本等部分优质公司。樊力谨表示，他主要从三大维度挖掘港 股"优质增长"：一是内需方向，聚焦渗透率提升与市占率扩大的龙头公司，有望随着经济回暖迎来估值 与盈利双击；二是出海方向，那些积极"走出去"的优质企业，成长的天花板明显抬升；三是港股市场的 制度红利形成的成长"富矿"，主要包括港股独有的稀缺赛道与标的。 展望2026年，樊力谨对港股市场整体持乐观态度。他表示，港股市场仍将面临较为有利的环境。一方 面，港股估值具备吸引力，境内金融市场的无风险利率仍处于较低水平，港股整体风险溢价不高，为南 下资金提供了具有吸引力的配置窗口；另一 ...

今年以来，港股市场凭借着低估值、高弹性及稀缺资产的优势，成为全球资金布局的焦点。截至12月9 日，恒生指数以超过26%的年内涨幅领跑全球主要市场，创新药、科技AI、新消费等热点轮流演绎，吸 引南向资金全年净流入近1.4万亿港元。对此，广发港股通优质增长基金经理樊力谨认为，今年港股表 现较好，本质是和其他全球风险资产一样，受益于中、美、欧货币财政双宽松周期的红利。 "复盘今年的港股市场，热点频出，资金在不同板块之间切换的速度较快。广发港股通优质增长年初以 来主要布局在内需龙头股、出口成长股和全球定价的资源品三个方向，取得了较好的收益表现。"樊力 谨对证券时报记者表示。银河证券统计显示，截至12月5日，该产品近一年回报率达59.58%，在港股通 偏股型基金中排名前5%分位(2/43)，超越同期业绩比较基准约40个百分点。 樊力谨是广发基金国际业务部基金经理，有9年从业经验，4年公募管理经验。他曾做过4年行业研究， 重点研究港股，也覆盖美国、欧洲、日本等部分优质公司。樊力谨表示，他主要从三大维度挖掘港 股"优质增长"：一是内需方向，聚焦渗透率提升与市占率扩大的龙头公司，有望随着经济回暖迎来估值 与盈利双击；二是出海 ...

银河证券研报称，展望未来，12月即将召开的国内重要会议与美联储议息会议，有望为港股市场提供中 长期政策方向和短期流动性信号，配置方面，建议关注贵金属、内需消费、科技成长等板块。 港股消费ETF（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，一键打包互联网电商龙头+新消费，成分股近 乎囊括港股消费的各个领域，包括泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、名创优品等新消费龙头，又包含腾讯、快手、 阿里巴巴、小米等互联网电商龙头，科技+消费属性突出。 消息面上，国家统计局数据显示，11月份CPI同比上涨0.7% 环比下降0.1%。1至11月平均，全国居民消 费价格与上年同期持平。此外，全国零售业创新发展大会12月9日至10日在北京举行，商务部相关负责 人表示，"十五五"时期，要把零售业作为培育完整内需体系、做强国内大循环的关键着力点，推动行业 转向品质驱动、服务驱动，实现高质量发展。 12月8日，Apple Store官方旗舰店在电商平台推出年末降价活动，iPhone 17 Pro及iPhone 17 Pro Max机型 降价300元，降价后两款机型售价分别为8699元起和9699元起。山西、上海、四川等部分地区可享国家 补贴，至高可省50 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a decline, particularly in the Hong Kong stock market, which fell below the 25,000-point mark, indicating liquidity issues as the year-end approaches [1] - The focus for December is on the upcoming economic work conference, with key messages indicating continued active fiscal policies to stimulate domestic consumption, extending beyond durable goods to general consumer goods and services [1] - The emphasis for 2026 is on stability, with the phrase "seeking progress while maintaining stability," highlighting anticipated economic challenges and a focus on steady growth [1] Group 2 - The term "economic and trade struggle" has emerged, indicating ongoing uncertainties in foreign trade relations, despite recent improvements in foreign trade data due to favorable outcomes in the US-China tariff negotiations [2] - The policy reiterates the importance of domestic demand, particularly in the service consumption sector, which is expected to benefit various industries, including retail, general goods manufacturing, and entertainment [4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cut is anticipated to positively impact commodity prices, particularly for gold, silver, copper, and energy metals, while oil prices remain weak due to global energy transition [4] Group 3 - The ongoing tension between "big shorts" and AI companies like OpenAI is highlighted, with concerns about the sustainability of AI companies' revenue in relation to their operational costs [6] - The current market environment, characterized by a loose monetary policy, has historically supported technology companies, reducing the likelihood of financial distress for these firms [6] - The potential for a decline in computing costs due to advancements in semiconductor technology is noted, suggesting a long-term positive outlook for AI development despite current challenges [6]

来源：一观大势 作者：方奕/郭胤含/李健/苏徽 核心观点：在较长时间横盘震荡后，中国股市将进入跨年攻势。12-2月是中国政策、流动性、基本面向 上共振的窗口期，指数有望迈上新台阶，看好科技/券商/消费。 摘要 ▶重振旗鼓：中国股市将向上迈出新台阶。11月24日上证指数跌至3800点悲观之际，国泰海通策略作出 重要研判"关键位置：进入击球区，步出先手棋"，表态看好科技/券商/部分消费。近期，中国股市开始 企稳反弹，12月5日券商/保险拉升，激活市场人气。对后市，我们认为在较长时间的横盘整理后，中国 股市将进入跨年攻势，指数将向上迈出新台阶：1）经济工作会议临近，2026年是十五五开局之年，经 济日报金观平12月7日指出"宏观政策不能松劲，要以更加积极有为的实招硬招，持续助力经济发展"， 我们预计广义赤字有望进一步扩张，经济政策有望更加积极。2）考虑近期走弱的房地产销售面积，若 美联储12月降息，当下人民币稳定升值也为2026年初中国宽松货币提供有利条件。3）国家金融监管总 局下调保险公司权益入市风险因子；继2014/2019/2024年后，证监会再度表态，适度拓宽资本空间与杠 杆上限；改革提振中国市场风险偏好。 ...