Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of urban investment (城投) debt is showing signs of improvement, with a shift towards lower-cost financing, although the overall debt scale remains high and the interest payment pressure is still significant in the short term [1][9]. Debt Structure Changes - As of March 2025, the total urban investment platform's interest-bearing debt reached 61.72 trillion yuan, a 9.4% increase from June 2023, with bank loans, bonds, and non-standard financing contributing 40.67 trillion, 15.41 trillion, and 5.63 trillion yuan respectively [2]. - The proportion of bank loans in the debt structure increased from 63.76% in June 2023 to 65.9% by March 2025, indicating a shift towards more stable financing sources [2][5]. - By the end of 2025, it is expected that the proportions of bank loans, bonds, and non-standard financing will be 68.11%, 23.71%, and 8.17% respectively [2]. Interest Payment Pressure - The overall interest payment pressure is expected to ease over time, despite the current high levels due to the lagging effect of past debt [1][9]. - The financing costs for banks, bonds, and non-standard financing have significantly decreased, with bank loan rates dropping to 3.26% and bond issuance rates to 2.61% by March 2025 [7]. - Interest expenses have decreased by over 190 billion yuan, with bank loan interest payments down by 284.38 million yuan and bond interest payments reduced by 1.355 billion yuan [8][9]. Provincial Variations in Debt Payments - All provinces except Beijing and Shanghai have seen a decrease in urban investment debt interest payments, with notable reductions in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, where interest payments decreased by 357.19 million yuan and 171.27 million yuan respectively [10]. - Some provinces, such as Henan, have not managed to control debt increments effectively, leading to smaller reductions in interest payments [10]. Market Outlook - The urban investment bond market is expected to see more certainty in the mid to short-term, with a lack of mainline logic in the market leading to fluctuations influenced by risk preferences [11]. - The supply-demand dynamics for urban investment bonds continue to be tight, with a net outflow of 21.784 billion yuan in July, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Guizhou is a typical key province with relatively weak economic and fiscal strength, but the debt burden has been significantly relieved after debt resolution. The progress of debt resolution is approaching the end, and there is still a demand for new financing at the provincial, municipal, and high - tech district levels, mainly relying on industrialization entities [4][19][21]. - The debt pressure in Guizhou has been alleviated, and the public - market debt issuance is cautious. The debt structure is relatively balanced. The transformation progress of listed and second - type urban investment companies is not fast, and there is no clear provincial coordination time for delisting [4][19]. - For bond selection, short - term varieties of both traditional urban investment and newly emerged market - oriented entities can be considered. Traditional urban investment's standard - bond market is shrinking, and the remaining part has a stronger safety margin. Market - oriented entities are currently the key recommended targets in the region, with relatively controllable credit risks in the short term. A cautious attitude is still maintained towards medium - and long - term credit products [4][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic and Fiscal Situation - In 2024, Guizhou's GDP was 2.266712 trillion yuan, ranking tenth from the bottom among provinces; the general budget revenue was 216.962 billion yuan, also ranking relatively low nationwide. However, the government - funded revenue was 231.528 billion yuan, ranking 8th in the country. Since 2020, Guizhou has had a government - funded revenue scale of over 200 billion yuan for four consecutive years [2][9]. - Among Guizhou's prefecture - level cities, Guiyang and Zunyi are in the first echelon. In 2024, their GDP exceeded 50 billion yuan, while other prefecture - level cities and autonomous prefectures were between 10 billion and 25 billion yuan. In 2024, the general budget revenues of Guiyang and Zunyi were 47.205 billion yuan and 34.776 billion yuan respectively, and the land transfer revenues were 64.325 billion yuan and 28.308 billion yuan respectively [3][13]. 3.2 Debt Situation - In 2024, Guizhou's government debt balance was 1.753709 trillion yuan, and the outstanding urban investment interest - bearing debt was only 1.590627 trillion yuan, with a relatively balanced debt structure [2][10]. - In 2024, the government debt balances of Guiyang and Zunyi were 376.955 billion yuan and 278.841 billion yuan respectively, and the outstanding urban investment interest - bearing debts were 385.355 billion yuan and 191.134 billion yuan respectively [3][13]. 3.3 Debt Resolution Progress - With limited financial resources in the province, the debt resolution support is strong. Substantial progress has been made in high - interest debt replacement with the help of special bond debt - resolution funds. Banks are more willing to participate in high - interest debt replacement, mainly replacing high - interest bank loans, while the progress of non - standard debt replacement is relatively slow [3][16]. - From 2024 to the present in 2025, Guizhou has issued 184.619 billion yuan and 105.944 billion yuan of special refinancing replacement bonds respectively, with the issuance scale always in the top five in the country. The scale of special new special bonds is also not small [16]. 3.4 Development and Bond Financing - Guizhou's debt resolution is approaching the end, and there is a demand for new financing at the provincial, municipal, and high - tech district levels, mainly relying on the subsequent appearance of industrialization entities in the capital market [4][19]. - The transformation progress of listed and second - type urban investment companies in Guizhou is not fast, and there is no clear provincial coordination time for delisting. Currently, the publicly - traded bond - issuing entities strongly recommended in the region are mainly state - owned enterprises that have successfully transformed into market - oriented operations [4][19]. 3.5 Industrial Situation - Guian New Area aims to build "three major industrial bases": a national computing power guarantee base, a new - energy power battery and material R & D and production base, and an important national industrial backup base. Many major projects have been put into production, but the contribution of data computing centers to tax revenue is not strong [14]. - Guizhou has established a "6 + 3" industrial system and a "3533" industrial cluster, with key support for industries such as new energy and aerospace high - tech industries, as well as other projects like urbanization, tourism, agriculture, and ecological environmental protection [20][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After two years of debt resolution, there are improvement signals in the total amount of urban investment debt, with the proportion of bank loans increasing and the "stable quantity and falling price" of urban investment debt driving down interest - payment expenditures. The changes in fundamentals are consistent with the pricing trend of urban investment bonds. In July, the urban investment sentiment index improved, with a double - decline in the number of non - standard and private placement products. The issuance and review side improved month - on - month but remained tight overall, and the urban investment bonds continued to shrink. The trading sentiment in the secondary market warmed up, and the model pointed to going long. In the volatile market, the coupons of medium - and short - term bonds are more certain [1]. - The supply - and - demand pattern of urban investment bonds continues, and institutions still lack coupon assets. Although the registration scale and feedback days on the issuance and review side improved slightly month - on - month, the supply remained tight overall. In July, there was a net outflow of 21.784 billion yuan in urban investment bonds, and the outstanding scale continued to shrink. On the demand side, the net purchase volume of funds was not large in July due to subscription and redemption, while the allocation rhythm of wealth management was not significantly affected. With the relief of the redemption pressure on funds and the seasonal growth of wealth management scale after the quarter, the allocation power of credit bonds in the third quarter is expected to be strongly supported [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 What Changes Have Occurred in Urban Investment Debt in Two Years of Debt Resolution? 3.1.1 Changes in Urban Investment Debt Structure - At the industry level, the scale of urban investment debt is still growing, and the proportion of bank loans has increased slightly. As of the end of March 2025, the total interest - bearing debt of urban investment platforms was 61.72 trillion yuan, a 9.4% increase from the end of June 2023. Among them, bank loans, bonds, and non - standard debts were 40.67 trillion yuan, 15.41 trillion yuan, and 5.63 trillion yuan respectively, with increases of 13.06%, 2.25%, and 4.97% respectively compared to the end of June 2023. The proportion of bank loans in the interest - bearing debt of urban investment platforms increased from 63.76% at the end of June 2023 to 65.9% at the end of March 2025 [14][15]. - There are differences among provinces. As of the end of March 2025, 18 provinces saw an increase in the proportion of bank loans, and 8 provinces including Ningxia, Hainan, Inner Mongolia, etc. had an increase of more than 3 percentage points. The financing structures of key provinces such as Gansu, Guangxi, Guizhou, etc. improved, with an increase in the proportion of bank loans and a simultaneous decrease in the proportion of bonds and non - standard debts [18][19]. 3.1.2 Has the Interest - Payment Pressure of Urban Investment Been Alleviated? - The costs of all channels have decreased. Since June 2023, the financing costs of bank loans and non - standard financing have decreased. In March 2025, the bank loan interest rate was 3.26%, a 69 - basis - point decrease from June 2023, and the non - standard financing cost was 5.14%, a 208 - basis - point decrease. The issuance coupon rate of urban investment bonds also decreased, reaching 2.2% in July 2025 [21]. - The annual interest - payment has decreased by over 190 billion yuan. The interest expenditure of bank loans decreased by 28.438 billion yuan, that of urban investment bonds decreased by 135.535 billion yuan, and that of non - standard debts decreased by 26.173 billion yuan [23][24]. - Except for Beijing and Shanghai, the interest - payment expenditures of urban investment bonds in all provinces have decreased. The interest - payment expenditures of urban investment bonds in some economically strong provinces and provinces that have received more debt - resolution support, such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang, have decreased significantly [29]. 3.2 Market Outlook: Medium - and Short - Term Urban Investment Bonds Are More Certain - In early July, the bond market adjusted due to the anti - involution policy. In the second half of the month, under the influence of multiple factors, the market sentiment eased, and the market started to repair and re - price funds and fundamentals. In the volatile bond market, medium - and short - term coupon assets are more certain, and the recovery of low - and medium - grade urban investment bonds is favored [32]. 3.3 Primary Issuance: Supply Remains Tight, and Issuance Enthusiasm Is High 3.3.1 Urban Investment Bond Issuance and Review Situation - The issuance and review rhythm improved month - on - month but remained tight overall. In July, the registration quota of urban investment bonds in the inter - bank market was 11.7091 billion yuan, a 52.69% month - on - month increase, but the registration completion ratio was only 11%. The number of feedbacks before the meeting decreased from 2.7 times in June to 2.28 times in July but remained at a relatively high level [34]. - The use of raised funds is still mainly for debt replacement, and it is difficult to break through new increments. In July, the proportion of debt replacement in the raised funds of urban investment bonds was 86.13%, and the proportion of other new uses was 3.62%, the lowest in 2025 [36]. 3.3.2 Urban Investment Dim - Sum Bonds: Increased Month - on - Month - The issuance of urban investment dim - sum bonds reached a new high in 2025 but was less popular than the same period last year. In July, 13 urban investment dim - sum bonds were issued, with a total scale of 8.273 billion yuan, significantly lower than 20.166 billion yuan in the same period of 2024. Henan and Shandong were the main issuers [42]. 3.3.3 The Issuance Enthusiasm Remains High, and the Coupon Rate Reached a New Low in the Year - The overall subscription enthusiasm in the primary market of urban investment bonds remained high. In July, the subscription multiple of urban investment bonds reached 3.67 times, and the "issuance coupon - lower limit of the range" was 34.75BP, lower than the same period last year [47]. - The issuance term of urban investment bonds was concentrated in 3 - 5 years, accounting for 46.48% in July. The weighted issuance coupon rate in July was 2.2%, a 7 - basis - point decrease from the previous month [49][50]. 3.3.4 Continued Net Outflow, and Urban Investment Bonds Further Shrunk - The net financing scale of urban investment bonds generally decreased, and the financing of key provinces tightened more significantly. In July, the cumulative net financing scale of urban investment bonds in key provinces was - 104.293 billion yuan, and that in non - key provinces was - 43.302 billion yuan [53]. 3.4 Secondary Market: Trading Sentiment Warmed Up, and the Model Pointed to Going Long 3.4.1 The Turnover Ratio of Each Term Declined Month - on - Month, and 3 - Year Urban Investment Bonds May Be More Suitable for Trading - Since the beginning of 2024, credit bonds have gradually moved towards the logic of liquidity pricing. The liquidity of bonds with a term of less than 1 year is better than that of medium - and long - term bonds. The turnover ratio of 3 - 5 - year bonds slightly recovered in June and July, and 3 - year high - grade urban investment bonds are more suitable for trading [54][55]. 3.4.2 Good Trading Sentiment, and More Low - Valuation Transactions - After a short - term adjustment, the weekly main - buying index began to rise, and the bullish sentiment quickly recovered. In the last week of July, the proportion of Bid transactions reached 34.52%, and the TKN proportion increased by 13.9 percentage points month - on - month [56]. - Low - valuation transactions of urban investment bonds reappeared, and the transaction term remained at a high level. On July 31, the deviation was - 2.40BP, and the weighted transaction term on the last trading day of July was 2.51 years, at the 82.2% quantile level since the beginning of 2024 [56].

Group 1 - The long cycle of real estate and the short cycle of the Chinese economy are interrelated, influencing the recent operation of the Chinese economy and market [1] - The comparison of housing price trends and household debt between China, Japan, and the United States has been a focus in the economic community, as all three countries have experienced significant real estate bubbles [1] - Japan's government implemented a comprehensive strategy to recover from its economic downturn, with its debt trajectory taking approximately 65 years to return to a low point after reaching a peak [1] Group 2 - China and Japan's debt trajectories are remarkably similar, both experiencing a 20 to 30-year expansion followed by a peak around 2021, after which a downward trend began [2] - The Chinese government's recent debt reduction initiatives represent a postponement of existing debt rather than a true resolution of the debt issue, with a three-year task of 10 trillion yuan for debt reduction [2]

Inflation Data Summary - July CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 0.0%, primarily due to weak food prices[3] - Core CPI improved for the third consecutive month, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, driven by higher gold prices and strong service consumption[3] - July PPI remained at a near 23-month low, with a year-on-year decline of -3.6%[3] Food Prices Impact - July food CPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month, significantly below seasonal levels by 0.9 percentage points[4] - Year-on-year food CPI dropped by 1.6%, influenced by a high base from the previous year[4] - Fresh vegetable and meat prices increased by 1.3% and 0.4% month-on-month, respectively, but were still below seasonal averages[4] Core CPI Drivers - Service prices remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with significant increases in travel-related costs: airfares up 17.9%, hotel stays up 6.9%[5] - Gold and platinum jewelry prices surged by 37.1% and 27.3% year-on-year, respectively, due to rising gold prices[5] - Transportation fuel prices saw a reduced decline of 1.8 percentage points to -9.0% year-on-year[5] PPI Trends - PPI's month-on-month decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points, reflecting the impact of "anti-involution" measures[6] - International oil prices increased, contributing to a 3.0% rise in oil and gas extraction month-on-month[6] - Investment demand remains weak, limiting PPI recovery to a gradual improvement[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Since late June, the A-share market has been rising, primarily driven by loose liquidity. International capital inflows into non - US dollar assets due to the "weak dollar" trend, and domestic enterprise deposit - loan data has improved, making the stock market more attractive. However, fundamental data remains at a low level, and there are pressures for the index to continue rising. In this context, the index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and different investment strategies can be adopted [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance in July - **1.1: Liquidity - driven Index Rise** - In July, the liquidity - driven market led to an index increase. Wind All - A rose by 4.75%, reaching a new high for the year, with significantly higher average daily trading volume. The large - cap growth style was strong, and the barbell strategy that performed well in the first half of the year underperformed the average. Specific index gains include: CSI 1000 up 4.8%, CSI 500 up 5.25%, SSE 50 up 2.36%, and SSE 300 up 3.54% [6]. - **1.2: Index Valuation at 1 - standard - deviation Level** - The index valuation is at the 1 - standard - deviation level, but no further detailed analysis is provided in the text [7]. - **1.3: Volatility and Margin Trading** - The implied volatility of index options rebounded. The 1000IV closed at 22.87%, and the 300IV at 19.11%. Margin trading balance increased significantly, rising by 132.4 billion yuan in July to 1.96 trillion yuan [14]. - **1.4: Sector - driven Index Rise** - In July, the pharmaceutical, electronics, and non - bank financial sectors drove the index up, as shown by their positive contributions to various major indices such as CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 300, and SSE 50 [15]. 2. Market Influencing Factors - **2.1: Sino - US Capital Market Linkage** - There are multiple ways of linkage between Sino - US capital markets, including economic - related (SSE 300 moves in tandem with US stocks), capital - related (CSI 1000 moves in tandem with US stocks), negative - related (due to the rise of the US AI industry), risk re - balancing (international funds increase positions in China), and non - related (due to different domestic pressures in the two countries) [23]. - **2.3: Foreign Capital Inflow Preference** - Foreign capital inflows tend to favor the large - cap growth style [26]. - **2.4: Increase in Corporate Deposits and Loans in June** - In June, both corporate deposits and loans increased, but no specific data is provided in the text [28]. - **2.5: Domestic Capital Inflow into the Stock Market** - Due to the relatively high equity risk premium, domestic capital is more inclined to flow into the stock market [32]. - **2.6: Capital Flow to Low - Valued Non - Core Themes** - Capital in the capital market tends to flow to low - valued non - core themes that were undervalued in the early stage [33]. 3. Index and Option Performance - **3.1: CSI 1000 Index** - The CSI 1000 index rose by 4.8% in July, and the annualized convergence of the basis discount was observed [41]. - **3.2: CSI 500 Index** - The CSI 500 index rose by 5.26% in July, with a relatively high annualized convergence of the basis discount [45]. - **3.3: SSE 300 Index** - The SSE 300 index rose by 3.54% in July, and the annualized convergence of the basis discount was observed [47]. - **3.4: SSE 50 Index** - The SSE 50 index rose by 2.36% in July, and the annualized convergence of the basis discount was observed [51]. - **3.5: CSI 1000 Option Indicators** - Various indicators of CSI 1000 options, such as historical volatility, volatility cone, and PCR, are presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [55]. - **3.6: SSE 300 Option Indicators** - Various indicators of SSE 300 options, such as historical volatility, volatility cone, and PCR, are presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [64]. - **3.7: SSE 50 Option Indicators** - Various indicators of SSE 50 options, such as historical volatility, volatility cone, and PCR, are presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [73]. 4. Trading Slippage - **4.1: IM Trading Slippage** - The trading slippage of IM contracts, including long - and short - position slippage, is presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [81]. - **4.2: IC Trading Slippage** - The trading slippage of IC contracts, including long - and short - position slippage, is presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [84]. - **4.3: IF Trading Slippage** - The trading slippage of IF contracts, including long - and short - position slippage, is presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [86]. - **4.4: IH Trading Slippage** - The trading slippage of IH contracts, including long - and short - position slippage, is presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [89].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the recent price law revision, which is expected to enhance ROE and cash flow, particularly in the water pricing sector. The marketization of water prices is seen as a potential turning point for cash flow, similar to the previous developments in waste incineration [1][11] - The report identifies a cash flow turning point in water operations, suggesting that companies like Xingrong and Shou Chuang will see significant reductions in capital expenditures starting in 2025, leading to substantial increases in free cash flow [1][22] - The report highlights the strengthening of environmental inspections as a driving force for the industry, indicating a shift from policy-driven to governance-driven demand for environmental services [10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The environmental protection industry is transitioning towards a governance-driven model, with a focus on long-term, systematic management rather than temporary fixes [10] - The report notes a significant increase in the sales of new energy sanitation vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 90.56% in the first half of 2025, indicating a growing market for environmentally friendly equipment [31] Water Operations - The report predicts that the water operations sector will experience a cash flow turning point, with companies like Xingrong and Shou Chuang expected to reduce capital expenditures significantly starting in 2025, leading to increased free cash flow [1][22] - The report recommends companies such as Xingrong Environment, Yuehai Investment, and Hongcheng Environment for their strong dividend potential and market positioning [23][24] Waste Incineration - The report discusses the expected decline in capital expenditures for waste incineration, which will enhance free cash flow and dividend payouts. Companies like Junxin and Green Power are highlighted for their strong dividend performance [18][20] - The report identifies new trends in waste incineration, including partnerships with data centers to enhance profitability and ROE [21] Policy Developments - The report outlines the implications of the price law revision, which aims to enhance market pricing mechanisms and improve cash flow for public utilities, particularly in water and waste management sectors [11][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of environmental inspections in driving industry growth and ensuring compliance with new regulations [9][10] Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on companies with strong operational capabilities and cash flow potential, such as Xingrong Environment, Yuehai Investment, and Hongcheng Environment, while suggesting attention to emerging players in the waste management and renewable energy sectors [23][24][25]

Group 1 - The State Council has requested a dynamic adjustment of the list of high-risk debt regions, with Inner Mongolia confirmed to have exited the list and Ningxia stating it meets the conditions for exit [1][7] - A total of 12 provinces are currently on the high-risk debt list, which restricts government investment projects to prevent debt risk from spreading [1][2] - Inner Mongolia's financial report indicates significant progress in debt reduction, allowing it to be the first province to exit the high-risk list [3][6] Group 2 - The 2025 government work report emphasizes the need to resolve local government debt risks while promoting development through a comprehensive debt reduction plan [2] - Several provinces, including Ningxia and Jilin, are accelerating their efforts to exit the high-risk debt list, with Ningxia having already applied for support from national ministries [7] - According to research, exiting the high-risk debt list requires meeting specific standards, such as reducing local government financing platforms and hidden debt ratios [7][8] Group 3 - After exiting the high-risk debt list, local investment financing restrictions may ease, potentially boosting regional economic recovery and development [8] - Despite exiting the high-risk list, some regions will continue to focus on debt reduction to mitigate potential risks, as indicated by Inner Mongolia's financial management report [8]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 正文 2025年7月30日，中共中央政治局会议召开，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。 前期回顾和当下形势判断：会议肯定了今年以来的经济工作，表示"我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效。主要经济指标表现良好，新质生产 力积极发展，改革开放不断深化，重点领域风险有力有效防范化解，民生兜底保障进一步加强，我国经济展现强大活力和韧性"；同时也明确了目前我国 面临的风险和挑战，"要正确把握形势，增强忧患意识，坚持底线思维，用好发展机遇、潜力和优势，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头"，说明对经济现状认识 到位，中央支持政策仍有充实空间。 各个方向政策如何定调？ 此外，本次会议针对外贸和当前宏观环境提出，要求"稳住外贸外资基本盘。帮助受冲击较大的外贸企业，强化融资支持，促进内外贸一体化发展。优化 出口退税政策"，因此在上半年中美关税摩擦以及持续到当前的博弈下，我国目前出口增速仍能保持正增长，预计后续关税影响对实体企业的影响在政策 支持对冲下可能边际削弱。 科技创新引领新质生产力发展，依法依规治理企业无序竞争。会议仍然将科技创新放在第二重要位置。在当下经 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The meeting's policy tone remains positive, emphasizing the implementation of macro - policies. Although the incremental information is limited, it is expected that short - term bond market interest rates will mainly fluctuate downward. The 10 - year bond yield of 1.75% has cost - effectiveness. The policy will support economic development in multiple aspects such as consumption, investment, and technology innovation, while continuing to promote debt resolution and urban renewal [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Current Economic Situation and Policy Orientation - The meeting affirmed the economic work this year, stating that the economy is stable with progress, but also recognized the existing risks and challenges. Macro - policies need to continue to exert force and be implemented in detail. Fiscal policy focuses on accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds and improving capital efficiency, while monetary policy aims to maintain liquidity and reduce financing costs [2]. - In terms of consumption, it is necessary to effectively release domestic demand potential, with a focus on both commodity and service consumption. In investment, high - quality "two major" construction should be promoted to stimulate private investment [2]. - Regarding foreign trade, the meeting requires stabilizing the basic situation of foreign trade and investment, helping affected enterprises, and optimizing export tax - refund policies [3]. 3.2 Technological Innovation and Market Order - The meeting places technological innovation in an important position, believing that it can drive the development of new - quality productivity and the recovery of the manufacturing industry. It also proposes to legally and regulatoryly manage the disorderly competition of enterprises [4]. 3.3 Debt Resolution and Urban Renewal - The meeting requires actively and steadily resolving local government debt risks, strictly prohibiting new implicit debts, and promoting the clearance of local financing platforms. It is estimated that the 2.8 - trillion - yuan debt - resolution quota will continue to be used [4]. - In the real estate sector, instead of mentioning the acquisition of existing housing, the meeting requires implementing the spirit of the Central Urban Work Conference and carrying out high - quality urban renewal, with potential investment in areas such as urban villages, old - community renovation, and underground pipeline network renovation reaching trillions of yuan [4][5]. 3.4 Impact on the Bond Market - The meeting's statement has limited incremental content for the bond market. It is expected that short - term bond market interest rates will mainly fluctuate downward. Attention should be paid to changes in risk appetite, the stock - bond seesaw effect, government bond supply in the second half of the year, and the central bank's liquidity hedging. Currently, the 10 - year bond yield has reached 1.75%, which has cost - effectiveness [5].