Core Viewpoint - The recent discovery of a billion-ton oil field in the Bohai Sea by China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) strengthens China's offshore oil and gas resource reserves, while the oil market is experiencing fluctuations due to inventory changes and geopolitical factors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) rose by 0.19% as of December 24, 2025, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Jiufeng Energy (10.00%), Shengli Oilfield (4.76%), and Hongtian Co. (3.96%) [1]. - The Oil and Gas ETF (159697) increased by 0.26%, marking its third consecutive rise, with the latest price reported at 1.15 yuan [1]. Group 2: Industry Developments - CNOOC announced the discovery of the Qinhuangdao 29-6 oil field, marking the seventh billion-ton oil field found in the Bohai oil field since 2019, reinforcing China's offshore oil production capabilities [1]. - According to Huatai Securities, U.S. crude oil inventories showed an upward trend from October to November, but shifted to a downward trend in December, influenced by new sanctions on Venezuela that may disrupt oil supply channels [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on December 21 will discuss oil production plans for the next year, which could impact market expectations regarding oil supply [1]. - The short-term outlook for crude oil prices is expected to have some upward momentum due to the recent inventory changes and geopolitical developments [1].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil prices in China have experienced a "three consecutive declines," with gasoline prices reduced by 170 yuan per ton and diesel prices by 165 yuan per ton, effective from December 24 [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The price adjustments translate to a decrease of 6.5 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 7 yuan for both 95-octane gasoline and 0-octane diesel [1][2]. - The cumulative adjustments in 2025 included 25 pricing windows, with 7 increases, 12 decreases, and 6 stasis periods, resulting in a total reduction of 915 yuan per ton for gasoline and 880 yuan per ton for diesel [2]. Group 2: International Oil Market Dynamics - The international crude oil prices have shown a downward trend, influenced by increased supply from the U.S. and the resumption of production at Iraq's West Qurna 2 oil field, which produces approximately 460,000 barrels per day [3]. - Geopolitical factors, such as Ukraine's proposal to abandon NATO membership and the potential for a U.S.-Ukraine security agreement, have contributed to a decrease in risk premiums affecting oil prices [3]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Analysts have differing views on the next pricing adjustment, with some suggesting a higher probability of price increases due to geopolitical instability and seasonal demand during the Christmas period [4][5]. - Others believe that the current low oil prices may limit the potential for significant increases, with expectations of a price adjustment of around 40 yuan per ton [5]. Group 4: Domestic Market Conditions - As the New Year holiday approaches, there is an increase in downstream stocking demand, which may support price and transaction activity [6]. - The recent drop in diesel prices and relatively low social inventory levels have prompted some market participants to consider replenishing stock, which could improve overall market conditions [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation has a significant impact on oil prices. The threat of confiscating oil tankers provided some support to oil prices in the first half of the night, but the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement led to a sharp decline in oil prices in the second half of the night. In the absence of bullish stimuli, oil prices are gradually declining. Attention should be paid to the progress of peace talks, as there may be last - minute reversals that could reignite geopolitical concerns. The SC2601 is expected to trade in the range of 428 - 438, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. - In the short term, the market is waiting for geopolitical bullish factors, while in the medium to long term, there is a risk of oversupply in the crude oil market [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: US pressure has almost paralyzed Venezuela's oil exports, with only Chevron - chartered tankers allowed to transport Venezuelan crude to the US. Trump had a "very good conversation" with European leaders about the Russia - Ukraine conflict and believes a peace agreement is closer than ever. The EU plans to sanction 40 Russian "shadow fleet" vessels and their supporters [3]. - **Basis**: On December 15, the spot price of Oman crude was $61.62 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $60.53 per barrel. The basis was 26.02 yuan/barrel, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: For the week ending December 5, the US API crude inventory decreased by 4.779 million barrels (expected: - 1.75 million barrels), and the EIA inventory decreased by 1.812 million barrels (expected: - 2.31 million barrels). The Cushing area inventory increased by 0.308 million barrels. As of December 15, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the price was below the moving average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of November 18, the long positions of WTI crude oil main contracts increased; as of December 9, the long positions of Brent crude oil main contracts decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: The SC2601 is expected to trade in the range of 428 - 438, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Russia - Ukraine Peace Talks**: US special envoys proposed an unprecedented agreement to Ukraine's President Zelensky in Berlin. Trump believes a peace agreement is closer than ever, but Moscow has not agreed to any changes discussed in Germany. The US is also pressing Ukraine to withdraw troops from the Donetsk region, which may cause strong opposition in Ukraine [5]. - **Venezuelan Oil Exports**: After the US seized a tanker carrying Venezuelan crude, a tanker transporting Russian naphtha for PDVSA and at least four super - tankers originally planned to load Venezuelan crude turned around. US pressure has almost paralyzed Venezuelan oil exports, except for Chevron - chartered tankers [5]. - **EU Sanctions**: The EU plans to impose new sanctions on 40 Russian "shadow fleet" vessels and their supporters to cut off Russia's funding for the war [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Sanctions against Russia and OPEC+ suspending production increases in the first quarter of next year [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Easing of the Middle - East situation, consistent expectations of crude oil oversupply among institutions, and progress in the US - Russia peace agreement negotiations [6]. - **Market Driver**: In the short term, waiting for geopolitical bullish factors; in the medium to long term, facing the risk of oversupply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, and Oman crude decreased by - 0.92%, - 1.08%, and - 0.79% respectively, while the settlement price of SC crude increased by 0.05% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, and Dubai crude decreased by - 1.77%, - 1.08%, - 0.69%, and - 0.58% respectively, while the price of Shengli crude decreased by - 0.03% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API inventory decreased by 4.779 million barrels for the week ending December 5; EIA inventory decreased by 1.812 million barrels for the same period [3]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude**: As of November 18, the net long position increased by 8,792 [3][15]. - **Brent Crude**: As of December 9, the net long position decreased by 32,310 [3][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows that in December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, domestic asphalt production decreased, reducing supply pressure, and it is expected to continue next week [8]. - The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average. The construction, modification, and waterproofing sectors all show low or declining operating rates [8]. - The cost side reveals that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 361.95 yuan/ton, a 12.00% month - on - month decrease. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 981.9371 yuan/ton, a 2.11% month - on - month decrease. Crude oil is weakening, and short - term support is expected to decline [9]. - The basis shows that on December 15, the Shandong spot price is 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract is - 43 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory shows that social inventory is decreasing, factory inventory is increasing, and port inventory is decreasing [9]. - The market trend indicates that the MA20 is downward, and the 02 contract price closes below the MA20. The main positions are net short, with short positions decreasing. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2602 fluctuating in the 2937 - 2989 range [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - Supply: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158000 tons, a 3.24% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate is 29.9017%, a 0.18 - percentage - point decrease. The sample enterprise output is 499000 tons, a 0.59% decrease. The estimated device maintenance volume is 944000 tons, a 14.29% increase [8]. - Demand: The heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate is 27.8%, unchanged; the construction asphalt operating rate is 6.6%, unchanged; the modified asphalt operating rate is 8.9781%, a 0.25 - percentage - point decrease; the road - modified asphalt operating rate is 27%, a 2 - percentage - point decrease; the waterproofing membrane operating rate is 31.1%, a 2.9 - percentage - point decrease. All are below or close to historical average levels [8]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 361.95 yuan/ton, a 12.00% decrease; the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 981.9371 yuan/ton, a 2.11% decrease [9]. - Basis: On December 15, the Shandong spot price is 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract is - 43 yuan/ton [9]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 721000 tons, a 3.22% decrease; factory inventory is 591000 tons, a 0.51% increase; port diluted asphalt inventory is 470000 tons, a 29.85% decrease [9]. - Market: The MA20 is downward, and the 02 contract price closes below the MA20. The main positions are net short, with short positions decreasing [9]. - Expectation: The refinery's recent production reduction eases supply pressure. Due to the off - season, demand is sluggish. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2602 fluctuating in the 2937 - 2989 range [9]. 2. Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: Figures show the historical trends of Shandong and East China basis from 2020 - 2025 [18][20]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: Figures show the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 - 2025 [23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: Figures show the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and WTI oil from 2020 - 2025 [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Figures show the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025 [29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: Figures show the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [33]. 3. Asphalt Spot Market - Figures show the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [36]. 4. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: Figures show the historical asphalt profit trends from 2019 - 2025 [38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: Figures show the historical coking - asphalt profit spread trends from 2020 - 2025 [41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: Figures show the historical weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: Figures show the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trends from 2021 - 2025 [47]. - **Production**: Figures show the historical weekly and monthly asphalt production trends from 2019 - 2025 [50]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: Figures show the historical Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trends [53]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: Figures show the historical refinery asphalt production trends from 2019 - 2025 [56]. - **Operating Rate**: Figures show the historical weekly asphalt operating rate trends from 2021 - 2025 [59]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: Figures show the historical maintenance loss estimation trends from 2018 - 2025 [61]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Figures show the historical exchange warehouse receipt trends from 2019 - 2025 [64]. - **Social and Factory Inventory**: Figures show the historical social and factory inventory trends from 2022 - 2025 [68]. - **Factory Inventory Ratio**: Figures show the historical factory inventory ratio trends from 2018 - 2025 [71]. - **Import - Export Analysis**: Figures show the historical asphalt import and export trends from 2019 - 2025, as well as the import price spread trends of South Korean asphalt [74][77]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: Figures show the historical petroleum coke production trends from 2019 - 2025 [80]. - **Apparent Consumption**: Figures show the historical asphalt apparent consumption trends from 2019 - 2025 [83]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Infrastructure - Related**: Figures show the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion from 2019 - 2025 [86]. - **Mechanical Equipment - Related**: Figures show the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [90]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt**: Figures show the historical heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate trends from 2019 - 2025 [95]. - **By Use**: Figures show the historical operating rate trends of construction, modified, and other types of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [98]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: Figures show the historical operating rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [100]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Figures show the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from 2024 - 2025, including production, import, export, demand, and inventory [105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Crude Oil Market Trend Review - Reviews the historical trends of crude oil from 1983 - 2025 and the trend in 2025 [4][5] - Analyzes the trading volume and open interest of domestic crude oil futures [4] 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis No detailed content is provided, but it includes IMF's global economic growth forecast, relationships between global and major - country manufacturing PMI, CPI, PPI, and oil prices [5] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply Analysis - Global crude oil supply is expected to maintain growth in 2026 [4] - OPEC+ suspended production increases in Q1 2026 but may continue to release production capacity later [4] - US crude oil output will slow down further [4] - Global geopolitical turmoil continues to affect crude oil supply [4] 3.4 Crude Oil Demand Analysis - The growth rate of global oil demand is expected to decline [4] - The increase in US oil demand is limited [4] - European oil demand is expected to remain sluggish [4] - China's oil consumption has increased significantly [4] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Forecast - Presents EIA/OPEC/IEA's crude oil supply - demand balance data from 2021 - 2026, including total supply, total demand, and supply - demand differences [62] 3.6 Crude Oil Options Analysis - Analyzes the trading volume and open interest of crude oil options [4] - Analyzes crude oil options strategies [4] 3.7 Technical and Seasonal Analysis - Conducts technical analysis [4] - Conducts seasonal analysis [4] 3.8 Outlook for the Future No detailed content is provided. 3.9 Statistics of Related Stock Prices and Price Changes - Lists the stock abbreviations, codes, latest prices, and year - to - date price changes of multiple crude - oil - related stocks [79]

研究品种:燃料油 成文日期：20251208 报告周期:周报 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 料油期货周报 核心观点: 本周燃料油合约整体呈现震荡下跌态势,整体跟随国际原油波 动节奏。主要受国际原油波动及地缘政治情绪主导,自身基本面矛 盾不突出。市场呈现"上有压力,下有支撑"的特点。上方压力来 自充裕的现货供应与趋弱的国际原油市场情绪；下方支撑则源于相 对稳定的船燃需求及潜在的供应端扰动风险。 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 本周燃料油主力合约 FU2601 收于 2455 元/吨，较前一交易周 结算价下跌 46元/吨, 跌幅为 1.84%。本周最高价为 2504 元/吨, 最低价为 2394 元/吨，成交量为 1884521 手，持仓量为 185625 手，减少 16267 手。 图 1：FU 燃油主力合约分时图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源：国金期货博易云 1.2 品种价格 燃料油期货各合约价差进一步收窄趋于一致。可能都原 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation remains highly uncertain, and there is a risk of an oil price rebound. Crude oil prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the rebound height is limited. The supply side is affected by OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical events, while the demand side is supported by the postponement of China's demand peak and the growth of chemical demand. The inventory side shows a tight market balance [1][4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract closed at 439.7 yuan per barrel, a slight decline of 0.9% from the previous day's 443.7 yuan per barrel. The WTI crude oil price remained at 58.96 US dollars per barrel, and the Brent crude oil price remained at 62.52 US dollars per barrel, showing short - term stability. The SC - Brent spread weakened by 175.86%, the SC - WTI spread weakened by 13.25%, the Brent - WTI spread remained stable at 3.56 US dollars per barrel, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread weakened by 65.0% [1][79]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: Position and trading volume data were not provided [80]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Russia's crude oil deliveries to India and China have declined for three consecutive weeks due to new US sanctions. OPEC+ production increased slightly in November, and Algeria's production also increased. Kazakhstan's production plan was on schedule, but the Caspian pipeline attack caused a short - term supply interruption of about 480,000 tons. Overall, supply is affected by geopolitical events, but OPEC+ production increases dominate a small expansion [2][8][81]. - **Demand Side**: According to the report of the CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute on December 11, China's oil demand peak is expected to be postponed to 2040, and the peak level is higher than previously predicted. By 2050, the demand for chemical products and new materials will increase by 57% to 290 million tons, and the demand for refined oil products such as jet fuel will continue to grow [2][10][81]. - **Inventory Side**: From the week ending December 5, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 1.8 million barrels to 125.7 million barrels, a decrease of 0.4%. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 200,000 barrels to 411.9 million barrels. OPEC monthly report shows that OECD oil inventories decreased by 32 million barrels to 2.83 billion barrels in October. Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4040 tons [3][11][81]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile at a high level. On the supply side, OPEC+ production increases and some countries' production increases are offset by supply interruptions caused by the attack in Kazakhstan. On the demand side, the postponement of China's demand peak and the growth of chemical demand support long - term demand. On the inventory side, the decline in OECD inventories shows a tight market balance [82]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On December 11, 2025, the SC crude oil futures price decreased slightly, while the WTI and Brent prices decreased. The spreads of SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and SC continuous - consecutive 3 weakened, and the Brent - WTI spread increased slightly. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, strategic reserves increased, and the US refinery weekly operating rate increased slightly [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: On December 11, 2025, the futures prices of FU and LU decreased, and the prices of some fuel oil spot and paper goods also decreased. The Singapore high - low sulfur spread and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased. Singapore fuel oil inventories increased, and some US distillate inventories increased while others decreased [7]. 3.5 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On December 11, Algeria's crude oil production in November increased by 10,000 barrels per day to 965,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ crude oil daily production in November was 43.06 million barrels, an increase of 43,000 barrels compared to October. Russia's energy ministry expects its 2025 oil production to remain at the 2024 level. Kazakhstan's 2025 oil production plan will be achieved as scheduled, but the Caspian pipeline attack caused a loss of 480,000 tons [8][9]. - **Demand**: The CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute predicts that China's oil demand will peak between 2025 and 2030, and the peak will be postponed to 2040 with a higher level. By 2050, the demand for chemicals and new materials will increase by 57% to 290 million tons, and the demand for chemical products, raw materials, and jet fuel will continue to grow [10]. - **Inventory**: OPEC monthly report shows that OECD oil inventories decreased by 32 million barrels to 2.83 billion barrels in October. Low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged, medium - sulfur crude oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 4040 tons. Singapore's fuel oil inventory data for the week ending December 10 will be released soon [11]. - **Market Information**: As of the 2:30 closing, the main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver increased, while the main contract of SC crude oil decreased. The main contract of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) decreased [12].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview: Oil Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - IEA and EIA predict a surplus of crude oil in Q1 2026, with estimates of approximately 5 million barrels per day and 3 million barrels per day respectively, indicating short-term downward pressure on prices but potential long-term bullish opportunities [1][2] - Global oil demand growth is positively correlated with global GDP growth, with a projected GDP growth of 3.1% in 2025 supporting positive oil demand growth, albeit at a slowing rate [3][8] - EIA forecasts an increase in oil demand of 1.07 million barrels per day in 2026, primarily driven by developing countries, especially China, contributing 250,000 barrels per day [3][8] OPEC's Role - OPEC's production cut recovery is nearing completion, with limited remaining capacity and a strong desire among major member countries to maintain high oil prices, as their fiscal breakeven prices are above current market levels [1][2][4] - OPEC's remaining production capacity is approximately 3.36 million barrels per day, with total idle capacity expected to remain around 4 million barrels per day [4] - The ability of OPEC to influence market supply-demand balance through production adjustments is limited due to low idle capacity and potential overproduction issues [4] Challenges in U.S. Shale Oil Industry - The U.S. shale oil industry faces rising costs, with new well completion costs increasing to $60-70 per barrel from $45-50 per barrel in 2021, alongside constrained capital expenditures [5] - Capital expenditure plans for U.S. shale oil are projected to decline by 2% in 2025, indicating challenges in maintaining production growth [5] Non-OPEC Supply Trends - Non-OPEC countries are experiencing a slowdown in oil supply growth, with EIA estimating a decrease in growth rate to approximately 1.84% in 2026 from 4.66% in 2025 [6] - Geopolitical factors, particularly regarding Russia and Venezuela, may further influence supply dynamics [6][7] Geopolitical Risks - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela are expected to provide support for supply expectations, with a clear trend of slowing global supply growth anticipated for 2026 [7] Price Outlook - Brent crude oil prices are expected to range between $55 and $70 per barrel in 2026, with potential short-term price drops due to inventory pressures providing opportunities for long-term bullish positioning [11] - The U.S. labor market's deterioration and rising unemployment rates are expected to strengthen the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, which typically supports dollar-denominated commodities like oil [10] Additional Considerations - Close monitoring of OPEC policies, geopolitical risks, and U.S. inventory dynamics is essential for future market assessments [12] - The PTA market is currently experiencing a contraction in production, with operating rates around 72%, indicating a relatively weak balance state due to seasonal demand fluctuations [13]

Core Viewpoint - The crude oil market is facing significant resistance levels, and the outlook appears bearish unless buyers can defend key support zones [1][6]. Technical Analysis - Crude oil is currently under resistance from the 200-day moving average at approximately $60.96, Friday's high at $60.50, and the 50-day moving average at $59.67, creating a strong ceiling for prices [1]. - The short-term retracement zone is identified between $59.23 and $58.44, which is seen as the next support area [1]. Market Sentiment - The ongoing Ukraine peace talks are contributing to supply risk, as any potential ceasefire could lead to increased Russian oil exports, which traders are cautious about [2]. - Analysts at PVM suggest that even speculation about renewed Russian exports is enough to dampen market sentiment [2]. Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement a quarter-point rate cut, with market expectations at around 84%, which typically would support crude prices; however, uncertainty regarding supply may counteract this effect [3]. - The market is not fully confident in a smooth policy path from the Fed, indicating that while lower rates may provide some support, they are unlikely to outweigh supply-side uncertainties [3]. Supply Dynamics - Trump's influence on Ukraine could potentially swing global oil supply by over 2 million barrels per day, creating a wide range of outcomes that the market is hesitant to price in aggressively [4]. - Additional factors such as potential new G7/EU restrictions on Russian exports, U.S. pressure on Venezuela, and increased Iranian oil imports by Chinese refiners contribute to a complex supply landscape [5]. Market Outlook - The overall outlook for crude oil remains bearish, with the market boxed under major moving-average resistance and momentum declining [6]. - The key area to monitor for potential dip-buyers is the $59.23–$58.44 retracement zone, which must hold for a bullish reversal to occur [6].

Report Overview - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures·Crude Oil Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 7, 2025 [2] - Analysts: Huang Liunan, Zhao Xuyi [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Short - term: Observe the impact of geopolitical factors on oil transportation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. - Medium - term: Be cautious about further significant price drops. Brent and WTI may test the lows before April at the end of this year or early next year, and may even reach $50 per barrel. The decline of SC may be less than that of foreign benchmarks. - Long - term: Although the decline in oil prices has accelerated under the influence of trade frictions, a long - term decline is unlikely to happen overnight. Pay attention to potential reversals in macro - expectations, which may amplify oil price fluctuations. [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - The gold - oil ratio has strengthened again. - Attention should be paid to inflation transmission. - The RMB exchange rate has strengthened again, and social financing has declined. [23][26][28] 3.2 Supply - OPEC+ decided at the November 30 meeting to suspend further production increases in Q1 2026, maintaining the existing output path. - OPEC 8's production increase completion rate in October remained at 80%. OPEC 8's exports in September reached a high and then declined by 480,000 barrels per day in October. - Non - OPEC countries' supply is growing strongly. For example, the production of Guyana and Brazil has remained at a high level, and the production of the United States reached a record high in September. [30][31][32] 3.3 Demand - The refinery operating rates in the United States and Europe have declined, and the operating rate of major Chinese refineries has dropped significantly. The "Rizhao Port Incident" may continue to have an impact. - Global refinery capacity is changing. Some refineries are expanding or newly built, while others are shutting down or reducing capacity. [68][71] 3.4 Inventory - US commercial inventories have stabilized, and the inventory in Cushing is still significantly lower than the historical average. - European diesel inventories have declined, while gasoline inventories have increased. - Global in - transit crude oil inventories and floating storage are at high levels. - Domestic refined oil profit margins have rebounded. [73][78][80] 3.5 Price and Spread - Spot market overview: Geopolitical factors have disrupted the market, and the purchases of Russian oil by India and Turkey have declined. Saudi Aramco has lowered the OSP for Asia in January to the lowest level in five years. - North American basis has rebounded, and the monthly spread has rebounded slightly. The valuation of SC is at a medium - low level, and the monthly spread has stabilized. [90][96][97]