Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, leading to a significant increase in crude oil prices, with Brent crude reaching a two-week high of $66.0 to $66.4 per barrel and WTI exceeding $62 per barrel, both up by 6% [4][6] - The sanctions target major Russian oil companies, including Rosneft and Lukoil, freezing their assets in the U.S. and aiming to limit Russia's ability to fund its military operations [6][7] - Analysts express a cautious outlook on the sustainability of the price increase, with predictions that prices may revert to around $60 per barrel due to potential supply surplus from new and existing production sources [7] Group 2 - There are indications that China and India, which previously imported significant amounts of Russian oil, are now pausing their purchases, with major companies like PetroChina and Sinopec halting imports [7] - Concerns about the impact of sanctions on Chinese and Indian companies are raised, as they may face difficulties in transactions with sanctioned Russian firms, potentially losing access to U.S. dollar channels [7] - Natural gas prices in Europe have not been significantly affected, with the TTF index rising only slightly, indicating limited concern over Russian natural gas supply [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side is under increasing pressure as refineries have increased production recently. In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt sample production capacity increased, and the output of sample enterprises also increased [8]. - The demand side is weak. The current demand is below the historical average level, with the construction of various types of asphalt and related products showing low or declining operating rates [8]. - The cost side is supported by the strengthening of crude oil. Although the daily processing profit of asphalt has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also decreased, the rising crude oil price is expected to provide short - term support [9]. - The overall expectation is that the asphalt futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The asphalt 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3228 - 3270 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: The refineries' increased production has raised supply pressure, and it may further increase next week. The planned production in August 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. This week, the capacity utilization rate, output, and shipment of sample enterprises all changed, with the device maintenance volume decreasing [8]. - Demand: The operating rates of various types of asphalt downstream products are generally lower than the historical average, indicating weak demand [8]. - Cost: The daily processing profit of asphalt decreased by 8.00% month - on - month, and the weekly delayed coking profit in Shandong decreased by 18.59%. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the cost in the short term [9]. - Expectation: The asphalt futures market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract in the 3228 - 3270 range [10]. - Other factors: The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory situation is mixed, with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreasing. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the 01 contract price is below the MA20, which is bearish. The main position is net long, but the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of various asphalt contracts generally increased compared with the previous values, with different ranges of increase. The inventory situation also changed, with some inventories increasing and some decreasing. The operating rates of different regions and products also showed various trends [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis, which helps to understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [20]. - Spread: It includes the spread trends of main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - to - price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, providing comprehensive information for analyzing the market relationship [23][26][29][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, reflecting the price changes in the spot market [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: It includes the profit trends of asphalt and the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt, which are important for understanding the profitability of the asphalt industry [39][42]. - Supply - side analysis: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, crude oil price and production volume, refinery production, operating rate, and maintenance loss volume, comprehensively reflecting the supply situation of the asphalt market [45][47][50][53][56][59][62]. - Inventory analysis: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio, which are crucial for understanding the inventory status of the asphalt market [65][69][72]. - Import and export analysis: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price difference trends of South Korean asphalt, reflecting the international trade situation of asphalt [75][78]. - Demand - side analysis: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, and downstream machinery demand), asphalt operating rate, and downstream operating conditions, comprehensively reflecting the demand situation of the asphalt market [81][84][87][91][96][99][101]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand of asphalt in different months, helping to understand the overall supply - demand relationship of the asphalt market [106].

Core Viewpoint - The international oil market has experienced a significant downturn in October, breaking the range-bound trend of the third quarter, with Brent crude futures dropping to a low of $61.5 per barrel and WTI crude futures falling below $58 per barrel, marking the lowest levels since early June this year, with a cumulative decline of over 5% for the month [1] Market Dynamics - Short-term uncertainties in international trade may lead to market sentiment fluctuations, impacting oil prices [1] - On a macro level, the global economy is showing weak recovery without entering recession, and the Federal Reserve's preemptive rate cuts provide some liquidity support for oil but fail to reverse the bearish fundamentals in the oil market [1] Geopolitical and Supply-Demand Factors - The ceasefire agreement in Gaza has reduced geopolitical risk support for oil prices [1] - OPEC+ continues to push for increased oil production, leading to greater supply-side pressure, while the demand side faces seasonal declines, indicating a growing oversupply situation in the oil market, which will exert downward pressure on oil prices in the medium to long term [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The refineries have reduced production, which will reduce the supply pressure next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average level. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short term due to the weakening of crude oil. The overall demand recovery is less than expected despite the peak season [9]. - Market outlook: It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract oscillating in the range of 3269 - 3311 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: According to Longzhong, in August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The refineries have reduced production to ease the supply pressure [8]. - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average level. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short term due to the weakening of crude oil [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract oscillating in the range of 3269 - 3311 [9]. - **Leverage Factors**: High - cost crude oil provides some support; high - price supply has insufficient demand, and overall demand is declining with strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [13]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - **Futures Contracts**: The prices of various asphalt futures contracts, including 01 - 04 contracts, showed a downward trend, with the decline ranging from 0.16% to 0.47%. The basis of each contract also decreased to varying degrees [16]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 1.30% to 1.058 million tons, factory inventory increased by 6.48% to 690,000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 7.69% to 120,000 tons [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - **Basis**: On October 14, the spot price in Shandong was 3460 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 293 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price [9]. - **Spread**: Multiple charts show the price trends and spread relationships between asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, as well as the spread trends of different asphalt contracts [18][21][24]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29% [9]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production,开工率, and maintenance loss volume. For example, the weekly shipment volume decreased by 29.39% to 221,300 tons [8][42]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It involves exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio. Social inventory is decreasing, while factory inventory is increasing [16][63][67]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price difference trend of South Korean asphalt [73][76]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand, and asphalt 开工率. The current demand is lower than the historical average level [79][82][85]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly supply - demand balance situation of asphalt, including downstream demand, inventory, export, import, and production [103][104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the crude oil industry is bearish [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, geopolitical tensions ease, supply and demand maintain a bearish performance. Trump's tariff threat on China will cause short - term oil prices to continue to show a weak and volatile trend [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - Long Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global or regional crude oil production. EIA predicts that the global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 will be 10,553 million barrels per day, an increase of 234 million barrels per day compared to 2024 [3]. - **Demand (Medium - Long Term)**: Different institutions have different views on demand. EIA, OPEC, and IEA have either increased or maintained their forecasts for global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025, with an overall increase compared to 2024 [3]. - **Inventory (Short Term)**: In the week ending October 3, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.715 million barrels, while the Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels. Gasoline and distillate inventories also changed [3]. - **Industrial Policy (Medium - Long Term)**: OPEC+ eight countries agreed to increase the daily crude oil production by 137,000 barrels in November, and the IEA pointed out that the crude oil market may shift from a tight balance to a slight surplus in the future [3]. - **Geopolitical (Short Term)**: The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas took effect, and a Russian refinery was attacked, which is expected to take about a month to resume operations [3]. - **Macro - finance (Short Term)**: Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods exported to the US, and the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates at the October meeting [3]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. Short - term oil prices will be weak and volatile [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading should be on the sidelines [3]. 3.2 Main Weekly Data Change Review - **Prices**: SC crude oil, Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and other major oil product prices all declined this week, with declines ranging from 2.62% to 4.04% [5]. - **Inventory**: US + European + Singapore oil product inventories, Chinese oil product inventories, and other data have changed to varying degrees. For example, US gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 4.66% [5]. - **Refinery Operating Rate**: The operating rates of Chinese and US refineries have increased, while the operating rate of Japanese refineries has decreased [5]. - **Crude Oil Production**: US crude oil production decreased by 0.76% [5]. 3.3 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: This week, oil prices showed a weak decline. Factors such as the easing of tensions in the Middle East, the increase in US crude oil inventories, and Trump's tariff threat have led to a bearish sentiment in the market [9]. - **Month - spread & Internal - external Spread**: The month - spread weakened, and the internal - external spread declined [10]. - **Forward Curve**: The far - month is moving towards a contango structure [22]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel all declined [30][40]. 3.4 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production** - **OPEC**: In August 2025, OPEC's crude oil production increased compared to July [59]. - **Non - OPEC**: The production of non - OPEC countries also increased [61]. - **US**: As of the week ending October 3, US domestic crude oil production increased to 13.629 million barrels per day [84]. - **Inventory** - **US**: US commercial inventory increased, and Cushing inventory decreased [85]. - **Northwest Europe and Singapore**: Northwest European crude oil inventory increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased [94]. - **China**: Some Chinese oil product inventories and port inventories have changed [104]. - **Demand** - **US**: Gasoline implicit demand rebounded, and refinery operating rate increased slightly [111]. - **China**: The refinery capacity utilization rate decreased slightly [121]. - **China's Refinery Profit**: The gross profit of major refineries and the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel declined [129]. - **Macro - finance**: The Fed cut interest rates, and the US dollar index rebounded [142]. - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of WTI crude oil speculative trading decreased [151].

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is likely to approve a new round of oil production increases of at least 137,000 barrels per day in the upcoming meeting, aiming to regain market share as oil prices continue to rise [1] Group 1: Production Adjustments - Since April, OPEC+ has abandoned its production cut strategy, increasing production quotas by over 2.5 million barrels per day, which accounts for approximately 2.4% of global demand [1] - The eight member countries of OPEC+ plan to fully cancel a voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day by the end of September and have initiated the process to cancel another cut of 1.65 million barrels per day starting in October [3] - OPEC+ has approved the UAE to increase its production by 300,000 barrels per day from April to September [3] Group 2: Market Impact - Oil prices have fluctuated between $60 and $70 per barrel since OPEC began increasing production in April, with a recent spike to over $70 per barrel due to disruptions in Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone attacks [2] - OPEC+ members collectively implemented a peak production cut of 5.85 million barrels per day, which included voluntary cuts and reductions from member countries [2] Group 3: Upcoming Meetings - An online meeting is scheduled for October 5, where OPEC+ will determine the production plan for November, with discussions indicating an increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day [1][3] - The final decision regarding the production increase has not yet been finalized, as many OPEC+ members are already operating at full capacity [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are slightly positive, with the basis being positive and inventory being neutral, while the market sentiment and main positions are negative [7][10]. - The refinery's recent production schedule has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory remaining flat. Crude oil prices are weakening, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating between 3379 - 3423 [9]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high on the supply side, and the demand recovery is weak on the demand side [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The refinery has reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8]. - **Expectation**: The refinery's production has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory remaining flat. Crude oil prices are weakening, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating between 3379 - 3423 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The prices of various asphalt contracts have generally declined. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 0.92%, the 02 contract decreased by 0.95%, and the 03 contract decreased by 1.22% [17]. - **Inventory Changes**: Social inventory decreased by 2.88% to 1,146,000 tons, factory inventory decreased by 4.53% to 653,000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 20.00% to 240,000 tons [10][17]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Price Trends**: The report presents the price trends of asphalt in different regions, such as the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, showing the price changes over different time periods [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: The report shows the trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt, reflecting the profit situation of asphalt production [37][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, production capacity utilization rate, and maintenance loss volume. For example, the sample enterprise shipment volume was 313,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.10%, and the sample enterprise production volume was 607,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% [7][44]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It covers exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio, showing the inventory status of asphalt [64][68][71]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: The report shows the trends of asphalt exports and imports, as well as the import price difference of South Korean asphalt [74][79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion), downstream machinery demand (such as asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator working hours), asphalt开工率 (including heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, etc.), and downstream开工情况 (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, etc.) [80][86][90]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream demand [106][107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term crude oil prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern, with Brent and WTI hovering in the range of $68 - 69 per barrel, and SC being relatively stronger due to warehouse receipt support [5]. - Supply tightening supports oil prices as Russian exports are blocked, US production declines, and OPEC+ continues to cut production, offsetting some demand concerns [5]. - There are differences in demand resilience. Strong US gasoline consumption offsets the weakness of distillates, but the weakening of Asian import demand limits the upside space [5]. - Macro - level pressure has not been lifted. Market sentiment is cautious ahead of the Fed's interest - rate decision, and the expectation of strategic petroleum reserve release and the risk of economic recession still put pressure on long - term prices [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On September 17, 2025, the domestic SC crude oil main contract rose slightly by 1.07% to 499.3 yuan per barrel, while WTI and Brent prices remained stable. The SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads strengthened by $0.92 per barrel to $1.78 and $5.72 per barrel respectively, and the Brent - WTI spread remained stable at $3.94 per barrel [2]. - SC warehouse receipt inventory decreased significantly by 320,000 barrels to 5.401 million barrels, and fuel oil warehouse receipts increased by 25,600 tons [3]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: Russian crude oil exports decreased due to drone attacks on Baltic ports by Ukraine. US shale oil production contracted marginally, and EIA data showed a week - on - week decline of 394,000 barrels per day in the week's put - into - production crude oil volume, along with a 3.111 million - barrel decrease in imports, leading to an unexpected drawdown of 9.285 million barrels in US commercial crude oil inventories. Personnel adjustments at Venezuela's state - owned oil company may bring uncertainty to its crude oil export stability [4]. - Demand side: The US refinery utilization rate dropped to 93.3% (expected 94.5%), but the derived data of crude oil demand significantly rebounded to 20.5 million barrels per day. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.347 million barrels, indicating strong terminal consumption, while distillate inventories increased by 4.046 million barrels, showing weak industrial demand. Japan's crude oil imports in August decreased by 2.5% year - on - year [4]. - Inventory side: US Cushing inventories continued to decline by 296,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventories slightly decreased by 10,000 barrels. Global crude oil visible inventories tightened overall, but the differentiation of refined oil inventories may limit refineries' restocking motivation [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC rose by 1.07% to 499.3 yuan per barrel, WTI decreased by 1.98% to $63.27 per barrel, and Brent decreased by 0.85% to $67.91 per barrel [7]. - Spot prices: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged, while prices of other types of crude oil such as Oman, Victory, etc. had different changes [7]. - Spreads: SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI spreads all increased, with increases of 153.76%, 43.74%, and 17.77% respectively [7]. - Other assets: The US dollar index rose by 0.35%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.10%, the DAX index rose by 0.13%, and the RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.15% [7]. - Inventory,开工: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.19%, Cushing inventories decreased by 1.24%, and the US refinery weekly utilization rate decreased by 1.69% [7]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU rose by 1.29% to 2,831 yuan per ton, LU rose by 1.89% to 3,459 yuan per ton, and NYMEX fuel oil decreased by 1.87% [8]. - Spot prices: Prices of various types of fuel oil in different regions had different changes [8]. - Spreads: The Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 4.67%, and other spreads also had corresponding changes [8]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventories decreased by 3.18%, and US distillate inventories had different degrees of increase or decrease [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Supply - Venezuela appointed a new trade vice - president for its state - owned oil company on September 17, 2025, which may affect its crude oil export policy [9]. - US EIA data showed a decrease in put - into - production crude oil volume and imports in the week ending September 12, and Russian weekly crude oil exports decreased significantly due to drone attacks [10]. - Japan's crude oil and LNG imports in August decreased year - on - year [10]. 3.3.2 Demand - US EIA data showed a decrease in distillate fuel production - derived demand, refinery equipment utilization rate, and refined oil and gasoline production in the week ending September 12 [11]. 3.3.3 Inventory - US EIA data showed a significant drawdown in crude oil inventories in the week ending September 12, along with changes in other types of inventories such as strategic reserves, Cushing inventories, and refined oil inventories [12]. - On September 17, 2025, the warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange decreased by 320,000 barrels, and fuel oil warehouse receipts increased by 25,640 tons [12]. 3.3.4 Market Information - The expected Fed interest - rate decision upper limit is 4.25% (previous value 4.50%), and the lower limit is 4.00% (previous value 4.25%) [14]. - US President Trump had a phone call with Indian Prime Minister Modi to ease tensions between the two economies [14]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides 21 data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, iFinD, etc. [15][17][19]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - A sustained move under the 52-week moving average indicates the presence of sellers, potentially driving prices toward $61.12 and $60.26, which could trigger further downside momentum [1] - Overcoming the 52-week moving average suggests the return of buyers, with initial resistance at $64.56 and $65.41, followed by a swing top at $66.03, which could lead to a surge towards $68.70 [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Recent price increases in crude oil were driven by a Ukrainian drone attack that suspended crude loadings at a major Russian port, raising concerns about potential reductions in Russian crude exports [3] - Despite the temporary lift from geopolitical events, Brent and WTI benchmarks fell sharply, indicating market skepticism towards price rallies without substantial supply disruptions [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. economic indicators have raised concerns about demand prospects, with revised jobs data showing 911,000 fewer jobs created than previously estimated, alongside a 0.4% increase in the Consumer Price Index, the largest since January [5] - The combination of slower job growth and persistent inflation raises doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates soon, which may stall economic activity and reduce energy consumption [6]

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View The supply increase suppresses the rebound of crude oil, and it is recommended to wait and see again. The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral view [1][8]. Section Summaries 1. Global Benchmark Crude Oil Price Dynamics - Brent (ICE) price is $67.49/bbl with a daily change of $1.1. The North Sea oilfield maintenance reaches its peak, and the shooting down of a Russian drone by Poland boosts the geopolitical premium [2]. - WTI (NYMEX) price is $63.67/bbl with a daily change of $1.04. Cushing inventory decreases by 2.8 million barrels weekly, and the strategic reserve repurchase starts [2]. - Dubai (Platts) price is $71.72/bbl with a daily change of $0.84. Middle - East refinery feed demand is strong, and the November spot premium hits a new high [2]. - Murban (ADNOC) price is $70.1/bbl with a daily change of -$1.02. The official selling price is lowered by $1.02 to respond to Asian buyers switching to US West Coast crude oil [2]. - Urals (CIF) price is $57.91/bbl with a daily change of $0.54. Indian refineries make bargain purchases, and the Baltic Sea loading volume increases by 15% month - on - month [2]. 2. Regional Crude Oil Spreads - Brent - WTI spread is $3.9/bbl, affected by the decline in Cushing inventory. The congestion of US Gulf export facilities intensifies, and the European arbitrage window closes [3]. - Dubai - Oman spread is $0.28/bbl, due to the Middle - East OSP cut. Saudi Arabia reduces Asian long - term contract volumes, and the spot market competition heats up [5]. - ESPO - Dubai spread is -$1.41/bbl, caused by the increase in Russian exports. Russian oil companies use a new method to avoid price limits: delivering a mixture of Omani crude oil [5]. - Midland - Cushing spread is $0.95/bbl, due to pipeline capacity constraints. An EPIC pipeline failure causes more than 5 million barrels of accumulation in the Permian Basin [5]. 3. Device Impact - Cosmo Oil's 100,000 b/d device is under maintenance from August 27 to early October, affecting Sakai crude oil. Japanese gasoline inventory drops to a five - year low, and emergency reserves are released [5]. - Sinopec Zhenhai's 200,000 b/d device maintenance is postponed to the end of September, affecting ESPO crude oil. Zhoushan's commercial crude oil inventory breaks the historical peak [5]. - BP Rotterdam's 180,000 b/d device is under maintenance from September 15 to November 10, affecting North Sea Forties. The European diesel crack spread widens by $1.2/bbl [5]. - Reliance's 660,000 b/d device is planned for maintenance in October, affecting Middle - East heavy crude oil. India's early stockpiling narrows the Middle - East fuel oil discount [5]. 4. Key Crude Oil Trade Dynamics - Persian Gulf - Japan route (VLCC): Freight is w64.5 with a weekly change of 0.15. Red Sea route insurance premiums increase by 300%, and shipowners detour around the Cape of Good Hope [6]. - US Gulf - China route (VLCC): Freight is $8.45m, an increase of $1.9m. The Panama Canal's traffic restrictions lead to tight shipping capacity [6]. - Singapore - East China route (LR2): Freight is $2.35m with a change of 0.12. China's bonded oil demand surges, and ship schedules are booked until three weeks later [6]. - West Africa - China route (Suezmax): Freight is w107.5 with a change of 0.08. India's procurement shifts to West Africa, squeezing Far - East shipping capacity [6]. 5. Comparison of Different Oil Types - 92 - octane gasoline (Singapore): Crack spread is $22/bbl, FOB price in Asia is $83.27. Indonesian Pertamina makes an emergency purchase of October cargoes, and Southeast Asian inventory drops to a three - week low [6]. - 0.5% low - sulfur fuel oil: Crack spread is $6.93/bbl, FOB price in Asia is $492.08. China's bonded refueling demand surges, and 23 ships are waiting at Zhoushan anchorage [6]. - 10ppm diesel: Crack spread is $19/bbl, FOB price in Asia is $88.12. African diesel power generation demand is in the peak season, and West African imports reach a record high [6]. - 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil: Crack spread is -$2.25/bbl, FOB price in Asia is $426. The restart of Australia's Viva refinery is delayed, and regional supply glut persists [6]. 6. Key Market News - OPEC Monthly Report: In August, OPEC+ crude oil production averaged 42.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 509,000 barrels per day compared to July as OPEC+ raised production [9]. - IEA Monthly Report: The 2025 world oil demand growth forecast is raised to 740,000 barrels per day (previously forecasted at 680,000 barrels per day) [9].