西太平洋银行：周末之前风险非常高，原油价格很有可能突破1月份的高点 金十数据6月13日讯，西太平洋银行大宗商品和碳研究主管罗伯特•雷尼表示："鉴于以色列的袭击似乎 更多地是针对伊朗军事总参谋部，包括伊斯兰革命卫队的负责人和高级核科学家，而美国没有参与其 中，这表明我们今天看到的更多是先发制人的打击，而不是持续的军事冲突。""然而，交易员将非常关 注伊朗的反应，以及它是如何针对以色列的，而不是代理攻击。进入周末前的风险非常高，原油价格很 有可能突破1月份的高点。""然而，从更大的角度来看，我们仍然认为，随着我们进入第三季度，我们 将看到价格下探60至65美元区间的低端，而进入第四季度时，价格有可能跌破60美元。" ...

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have significantly increased due to various factors including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, U.S.-China trade negotiations, and a decrease in U.S. oil inventories [2][4][6]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil contracts rose by $2.90, a 4.34% increase, closing at $69.77 per barrel; WTI contracts increased by $3.17, a 4.88% rise, closing at $68.15 per barrel [2]. - The market reacted to news of U.S. personnel withdrawal from the Middle East, which heightened geopolitical tensions and led to a 5.2% spike in WTI crude futures [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The upcoming U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations are critical; successful talks could ease tensions and lower oil prices, while failure may lead to further price increases [2][6]. - Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil consumption passes, poses a risk of supply disruptions if tensions escalate [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation remains moderate, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.4% year-on-year in May, which supports oil prices [6]. - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.64 million barrels to 432.415 million barrels as of June 6, indicating a tightening supply [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the oil market may remain volatile due to ongoing geopolitical risks, U.S.-China trade negotiations, and OPEC's production decisions [7]. - The expectation for Brent crude oil prices is to range between $60 and $70 per barrel for the year, with potential short-term rebounds but a long-term bearish outlook [7].

多空逻辑交织，OPEC+增产压制短期价格，但俄乌、中东局势暗藏上行风险，未来原油价格将如何运 行？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

作 者丨费心懿 金联创成品油分析师毕明欣表示，本轮计价周期内，国际原油价格走势震荡下行。具体来 看，期初欧佩克部分产油国将实施补偿性减产的消息对油价起到支撑，但近期欧佩克成员国 之间因遵守生产配额问题而关系紧张，几个成员国将提议在6月增加原油产量，以及哈萨克斯 坦一季度原油出口同比激增7%，供应预期增加令油价再度承压。此外，美国所谓"对等关 税"政策的不确定性令全球经济增长与燃料需求前景蒙阴，叠加美国原油库存连续第五周攀 升，利空因素居于主导，令原油价格走势承压。受原油走势影响，变化率正向区间接连收 窄。 卓创资讯成品油分析师高青翠认为，未来美联储大概率维持高利率，且美国贸易政策依然带 有不确定性，沙特增产等多因素叠加，国际油价或承压运行，短期原油仍延续弱势震荡走 势。新周期伊始，国内测算的原油变化率将以负值开局。由于下一轮调价周期横跨"五一"小 长假，调价周期较长，国际原油市场的波动性较大，后市油价走势仍有不确定性。 据悉，下轮成品油调价窗口为5月1 9日2 4时。 4月3 0日2 4时，国内汽柴油零售限价调整将达成年内第二次搁浅。 国家发展改革委今日消息，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - In April 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.289 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 97,000 tons (4.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 4,000 tons (0.2%). This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 39.4115%, a month - on - month increase of 2.477 percentage points. The refineries increased production recently, raising supply pressure, and it is expected to increase next week [7]. - Demand - The current demand is lower than the historical average. The开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane is all below the historical average, although they have increased slightly month - on - month [7]. - Cost - The daily asphalt processing profit was - 594.51 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 619.09 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.08%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [8]. - Expectation - The refineries' recent production increase raises supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is weak and fails to meet expectations. Inventory is continuously decreasing. With the weakening of crude oil, the cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2506 fluctuating in the range of 3397 - 3463 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Bearish. Supply pressure is high, and demand recovery is weak. The overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish [7]. - **Basis**: On April 29, the Shandong spot price was 3560 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 130 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [10]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.421 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%. Factory inventory was 902,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63%. Port diluted asphalt inventory remained unchanged at 140,000 tons. Social inventory is continuously increasing, factory inventory is continuously decreasing, and port inventory remains stable. Bullish [10]. - **Market**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed above MA20. Neutral [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with long positions turning to short. Bearish [10]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [12]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: There is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13]. - **Main Logic**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [14]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's market overview, including the prices, price changes, and price change rates of different asphalt contracts, inventory, production, and other indicators [17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the spreads of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical trends of the average prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2025 [35]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [49]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It shows the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [56]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2025 [59]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 [65]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt social inventory and factory inventory from 2022 to 2025 [69]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [72]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the difference between asphalt import and export from 2020 to 2025 [75][78]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [84]. - **Downstream Demand**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of downstream mechanical demand such as asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales [87][91][93]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 [96][99][102][104]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from April 2024 to April 2025, including production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [107].

2025 年 4 月 30 日 原油：或继续震荡下行，二次探底 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI6 月原油期货收跌 1.63 美元/桶，跌幅 2.62%，报 60.42 美元/桶；布伦特 6 月原油期货收 跌 1.61 美元/桶，跌幅 2.44%，报 64.25 美元/桶；SC2506 原油期货收跌 10.10 元/桶，跌幅 2.07%， 报 478.00 元/桶。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 研 究 商 品 研 究 所 1. 德国 5 月 Gfk 消费者信心指数 -20.6，预期-26，前值由-24.5 修正为-24.3。 2. 欧元区 4 月工业景气指数 -11.2，预期-10.1，前值由-10.6 修正为-10.7。 3. 欧元区 4 月经济景气指数 93.6，预期 94.5，前值由 95.2 修正为 95。 4. 俄乌冲突：俄称布良斯克州遭乌无人机袭击，致 1 死 1 伤。普京宣布卫国战争胜利庆典期间停 火 72 小时。乌克兰外交部长：乌克兰提议全面停火至少 30 天。乌克兰空军表示，俄罗斯在夜 间和白 ...

距离明晚（4月30日24时） 接下来需要关注 国际原油的走势如何 仅剩最后1个工作日 但这一轮调价的悬念 却已提前拉满—— 国内成品油调价窗口关闭 截至4月28日收盘，国内第9个工作日，参考原油变化率1.11%，预计汽柴油上调45元/吨，未达成品油零 售限价50元/吨的调价红线。 究竟是年内第二次搁浅 还是压线触发"小幅上调"？ 若本次调价以搁浅落地，成品油零售限价调整将实现2025年以来的第二次搁浅。在未来半个月时间内 （4月30日24时至5月19日24时），居民驾车出行燃油成本及物流运输燃油成本将保持不变。 卓创资讯分析师王芦青：本计价周期以来（4月17日24时-4月30日24时），国际原油整体呈现震荡走 势。前期，随着美国和众多国家开展贸易谈判，市场不断传出贸易缓和的信息，市场预期后续将会达成 一系列贸易协定，前期的高关税也将随之取消，美股行情出现回暖，国际原油价格也出现企稳震荡。后 期，欧佩克+即将增产，以及东西方两个最大经济体贸易关系前景不明，导致国际油价出现下跌。多空 因素交织下，本周期国内参考的原油变化率正值范围内收窄。据卓创资讯测算，截至4月28日收盘，国 内第9个工作日，参考原油变化率1.1 ...