Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant decline in domestic commodity futures, with most contracts experiencing drops, particularly in precious metals and base metals [1] - The main futures contracts that fell include silver, which hit the limit down, platinum down by 16%, and palladium down over 15% [1] - Other notable declines include gold and tin down over 9%, copper and international copper down over 5%, and nickel and stainless steel down over 3% [1] Group 2 - Some commodities showed slight increases, such as caustic soda rising over 2% and coking coal and soda ash increasing by over 1% [1] - Glass and coke also experienced minor gains, indicating a mixed performance in certain sectors despite the overall downturn [1]

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 4 | | --- | --- | | 第二部分 | 总览与说明 5 | | 第三部分 | 宏观供应 6 | | | 一、 全球数据 6 | | ➢ | 气候 6 | | ➢ | 商品估值 11 | | 第四部分 | 微观供应 14 | | | 二、 全球数据 14 | | ➢ | 绝对价格 14 | | | 三、 海外数据 15 | | ➢ | ANRPC 胶盟天然橡胶产业 15 | | ➢ | 泰国天然橡胶产业 17 | | ➢ | 越南天然橡胶产业 27 | | | 四、 国内数据 29 | | ➢ | 中国橡胶进口及产量 29 | | ➢ | 天然橡胶的供应 34 | | ➢ | 中国橡胶表观消费量 35 | | ➢ | 国内胶水产品 36 | | ➢ | 丁二烯及顺丁橡胶的供应 38 | | ➢ | 台湾橡塑业 43 | | 第五部分 | 贸易流通 45 | | | 五、 全球数据 45 | | ➢ | 东南亚六大主产国平衡表 45 | | | 六、 海外数据 46 | | ➢ | 国际贸易 46 | | ➢ | 日本橡胶库存 47 | | ➢ | 马来西亚天然橡胶零售库 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2026年1月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 6、预期：随着春节临近，聚酯减产幅度扩大，PTA供需趋累。不过近期资金对PTA关注度提升，近两日增仓上涨明显，PTA加工 差改善，PX-PTA供需博弈下，关注后期PTA供应端计划外增量。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围清淡，现货基差变动不大。个别聚酯工厂递盘，2月上在05贴水75~80附 近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在5200~5290。2月底在05贴水68~70有成交。今日主流现货基差在05-78。中性 2、基差：现货5250，05合约基差-82，盘面升水 偏空 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.58天，环比 ...

| | 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月30日 | | | 哥敏歌 | ZOOJOSSO | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 涨跌 | 其左 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货 (华东) | 3260 | 3240 | 20 | 32 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3170 | 3160 | 10 | -58 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3290 | 3280 | 10 | 62 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3157 | 3126 | 31 | 103 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3203 | 3174 | 29 | 57 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3228 | 3199 | 29 | 32 | | | 热卷现货 (华东) | 3290 | 3270 | 20 | -60 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3180 | 3170 | 10 | -170 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For the stock index, in the medium to long term, policies support the capital market, and the short - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the context of weak domestic demand recovery, there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, but the timing of overall easing may be postponed. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [6]. - For precious metals, the current weakening of the US dollar credit is irreversible, driving the prices of gold and silver to remain strong. The strategy is to maintain a long - position thinking [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be strong or fluctuate. For example, copper is expected to fluctuate strongly, and aluminum is expected to maintain a strong operation [12][14]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the bottom range, and iron ore prices are expected to be mainly volatile [31][33]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different strategies, such as trading crude oil at the shale oil break - even cost range and considering short - selling urea [57][62]. - For agricultural products, some products' short - term fundamentals are improving, such as protein meals and oils, and there are corresponding trading opportunities [87][89]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Market News**: The State Council issued a work plan to support service consumption, some funds were suspended, and new AI chips were released [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have corresponding basis annualized ratios [3]. - **Strategy**: In the medium to long term, policies support the capital market, and the short - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of main contracts changed slightly on Thursday. There were positive results in Sino - US economic and trade consultations, and the HKMA maintained the benchmark interest rate. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and had a net investment [5]. - **Strategy**: In the context of weak domestic demand recovery, there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, but the timing of overall easing may be postponed. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [6]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver changed, and COMEX gold and silver had corresponding quotes. The CME raised the gold margin ratio, and Trump planned to announce a new Fed chairman nominee [7]. - **Strategy**: The weakening of the US dollar credit is irreversible, driving the prices of gold and silver to remain strong. The strategy is to maintain a long - position thinking [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: Overseas copper mine supply was disturbed, and copper prices fluctuated. LME and domestic inventories changed, and the spot discount and import loss also changed [11]. - **Strategy**: The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with reference ranges for the Shanghai copper main contract and LME 3M copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Aluminum prices fluctuated, and domestic and LME inventories changed. The spot discount and trading sentiment were also affected [13]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a strong operation, with reference ranges for the Shanghai aluminum main contract and LME 3M aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [15][16]. - **Strategy**: Zinc prices are currently following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase, and the zinc ore inventory is accumulating [17]. Lead - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai lead and LME lead changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [18]. - **Strategy**: The lead industry is currently weak, but the surplus of lead ingots is expected to decrease marginally [18]. Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices fluctuated, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed [19]. - **Strategy**: The Shanghai nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. Tin - **Market News**: Tin prices fluctuated narrowly, and the supply and demand and inventory situation changed [20]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The prices of carbonate lithium spot and futures changed, and the inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The price of the alumina index changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [23]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side policies and other factors [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The price of the stainless steel main contract changed, and the spot price and inventory situation also changed [26]. - **Strategy**: The supply of stainless steel is expected to be tight, and the price center may move up, but there are risks [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract changed, and the inventory increased [27]. - **Strategy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly supported in the short term [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts changed, and the spot prices also increased [30]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the bottom range, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The price of the iron ore main contract changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [32]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to be mainly volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to steel mill replenishment and production rhythm [33]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market News**: The prices of coking coal and coke main contracts changed, and the spot prices and discounts also changed [34]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is necessary to pay attention to market sentiment [37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market News**: The price of the glass main contract changed, and the inventory decreased [38]. - **Strategy**: The glass market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to wait and see [39]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market News**: The price of the soda ash main contract changed, and the inventory increased [40]. - **Strategy**: The soda ash market is expected to continue to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon main contracts changed, and the spot prices and discounts also changed [42]. - **Strategy**: The future market of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is affected by market sentiment and cost factors, and it is recommended to pay attention to relevant factors [45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market News**: The price of the industrial silicon main contract changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [46]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to production reduction and other factors [47]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market News**: The price of the polysilicon main contract changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [48]. - **Strategy**: The polysilicon market is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to terminal demand and policy adjustments [50]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: The prices of rubber - related products changed, and the market had different views on the rise and fall [52][53][54]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to trade short - term according to the disk, set stop - losses, and control risks [55]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The prices of crude oil and related refined oil futures changed, and the US EIA data showed inventory changes [56]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profit on heavy oil spreads and buy crude oil at the shale oil break - even cost range [57]. Methanol - **Market News**: The prices of methanol spot and futures changed [58]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to buy methanol on dips because of its low valuation and improved future pattern [59]. Urea - **Market News**: The prices of urea spot and futures changed, and the basis was reported [60][61]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short - sell urea because of its expected fundamental negative factors [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [63]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profit gradually on styrene non - integrated profits [64]. PVC - **Market News**: The price of the PVC contract changed, and there were corresponding inventory and cost data [65]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short - sell PVC because of its strong supply and weak demand [66]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The price of the ethylene glycol contract changed, and there were corresponding inventory and cost data [67]. - **Strategy**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [68]. PTA - **Market News**: The price of the PTA contract changed, and there were corresponding inventory and cost data [69]. - **Strategy**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [70]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: The price of the PX contract changed, and there were corresponding inventory and cost data [72]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to follow the crude oil to buy PX on dips in the medium term [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The prices of PE futures and spot changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [74]. - **Strategy**: The PE price is affected by supply and demand, and the valuation has downward space [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The prices of PP futures and spot changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [76]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to buy the PP5 - 9 spread on dips in the long term [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market News**: The domestic pig price continued to decline, and the supply and demand situation changed [80]. - **Strategy**: The spot price has limited downward space in the short term, but there may be opportunities to short - sell after a rebound [81]. Eggs - **Market News**: The national egg price was stable with slight increases, and the supply and demand situation changed [82]. - **Strategy**: The egg price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to the pressure after a rebound [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal futures changed, and there were corresponding inventory and production data [84][86]. - **Strategy**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out, and the short - term fundamentals are improving [87]. Oils - **Market News**: The prices of oil futures changed, and there were corresponding inventory and production data [88][89]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait for a callback and then try to buy oils [89]. Sugar - **Market News**: The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded, and there were corresponding production and import data [90][91]. - **Strategy**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere harvest, and it is recommended to wait and see [92]. Cotton - **Market News**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated at a high level, and there were corresponding production, inventory, and export data [93][94]. - **Strategy**: The cotton price has room to rise in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [95].

每经AI快讯，1月29日，国内商品期货开盘多数上涨，沪金涨超7%，沪银涨超4%，燃油涨近3%，氧化 铝、沪铝涨超2%。跌幅方面，碳酸锂跌近1%。 每经AI快讯，1月29日，国内商品期货开盘多数上涨，沪金涨超7%，沪银涨超4%，燃油涨近3%，氧化 铝、沪铝涨超2%。跌幅方面，碳酸锂跌近1%。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean meal market is in a game between external cost drivers, pre - holiday stocking support, and its own loose supply expectations. In the short term, the soybean meal futures price mainly follows the external market fluctuations, and may show a trend of rising and then falling during the day [5][6]. - The palm oil futures price is in a period of multiple positive resonances, and its strong pattern continues. In the short term, driven by fundamentals and sentiment, it remains the core variety in the oil and fat sector and maintains a relatively strong operating pattern [7]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term:震荡 (oscillation); Mid - term:震荡 (oscillation); Intraday:震荡偏弱 (oscillation with a weak bias); View reference:震荡偏弱 (oscillation with a weak bias) [5]. - **Core Logic**: The continuous high - temperature and drought in Argentina's core producing areas have pushed up the price of US soybeans. The US dollar index has weakened, reducing the cost of US - dollar - denominated agricultural products. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by the external market, and the pre - holiday stocking supports the price, but the new procurement is light. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills is passively reduced. Overall, it is in a game situation [5]. - **Factors Affecting**: Imported soybean cost, import arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term:强势 (strong); Mid - term:强势 (strong); Intraday:震荡偏强 (oscillation with a strong bias); View reference:震荡偏强 (oscillation with a strong bias) [5]. - **Core Logic**: Palm oil is in a period of multiple positive resonances, including improved supply - demand in the producing areas, favorable demand substitution, policy expectation support, and strong domestic sentiment. The dual drivers of improved supply - demand in the producing areas and rising domestic market sentiment will further consolidate its strong foundation [7]. - **Factors Affecting**: Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian biodiesel and export policies, EU - related policy changes, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [5]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term:强势 (strong); Mid - term:强势 (strong); Intraday:震荡偏强 (oscillation with a strong bias); View reference:震荡偏强 (oscillation with a strong bias) [5]. - **Factors Affecting**: US soybean cost support, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [5].

2026年01月28日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：周二贵金属夜盘走强，伦敦金逼近 5200 美元/盎司，伦敦银价周三和那个 110 美元/盎司。 | | | 金 | 基本面：美元创四年新低，跌超 1%、创去年 4 月特朗普宣布关税以来最大四日跌幅；美国将在中东举行空军 | | | 属 | 战备演习；美国政府关门时点逼近，特朗普与明州州长通话，同意考虑减少 ICE 人数；"新美联储通讯社"称 | | | | 美联储 1 月料暂停降息。国内黄金 ETF 大幅流入 4.1 吨，COMEX 黄金库存为 1117.8 吨，维持不变；上期所 | | | | 黄金库存为 103.0 吨，维持不变，SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1086.5 吨，维持不变；COMEX 白银库存为 | 12911 | | | 吨，-3 吨；上期所白银库存为 544.2 吨，-29.6 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 15847.5 吨，-126.9 吨；金交所 | | | | 白银上周库存 504.5 吨，-1 吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 26th, most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with precious metals leading the gains, energy products, shipping futures, and oilseeds all rising, while agricultural products showed mixed performance [1]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening marginally, but the overall steel fundamentals are healthy, and the downside space for iron ore prices is limited [1]. - The rise of copper prices is restricted due to the increase in global copper inventories and the suppression of demand by high prices, while precious metals are supported by geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties [1]. - The bullish sentiment in the domestic crude - oil sector is high, driven by external markets. The short - term drivers include cold snap and Middle East situation, and the global crude - oil supply is expected to be in surplus in 2026 [1]. - Oilseeds rose due to strong export sales data and positive market sentiment. The supply of rapeseed oil is currently tight, but there are uncertainties in the future due to trade relations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Market - On January 26th, most domestic commodity futures closed higher. Precious metals led the gains with Shanghai silver up 12.78%, energy products all rose (fuel oil up 6.81%), shipping futures all rose (Containerized Freight Index (Europe Line) up 5.46%), oilseeds all rose (rapeseed oil up 4.08%), most chemical products rose (butadiene rubber up 3.59%), non - metallic building materials all rose (glass up 2.45%), most base metals rose (Shanghai tin up 1.37%), black series showed mixed performance (coking coal up 1.35%), most new energy materials rose (polysilicon up 1.19%), and agricultural products led the decline (pigs down 0.99%) [1]. 3.2 Analysis of Different Commodity Sectors 3.2.1 Black Series - Before the Spring Festival, steel mills increased maintenance, suppressing iron ore. With high inventories, iron ore futures fluctuated lower. In the future, although the fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, the steel fundamentals are healthy, and the downside space for iron ore prices is limited [1]. 3.2.2 Base Metals - Shanghai copper opened higher in the morning and closed slightly higher. The rise was driven by precious metals, but the increase in global copper inventories and high - price suppression of demand limited the rise. Precious metals such as Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver hit new highs due to geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties [1]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemical Products - Driven by external markets, the domestic crude - oil sector was bullish. Short - term drivers include cold snap and Middle East situation. The global crude - oil supply is expected to be in surplus in 2026, but the surplus pressure in the first quarter is reduced due to OPEC+ suspending production increase [1]. 3.2.4 Oilseeds - Driven by strong export sales data, US soybeans continued to rise slightly, and domestic soybeans also rose. With the approaching Spring Festival, soybean meal prices stopped falling and rose. The supply of rapeseed oil is currently tight, but there are uncertainties in the future due to trade relations [1].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，1月27日，商品期货早盘收盘，铂连续跌6.96%，白银连续涨6.26%，钯连续跌4.51%， PTA连续跌3.72%，对二甲苯连续跌3.63%。 ...