Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a relatively strong manner, with an intraday view of being oscillatingly strong and a medium - term view of oscillation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.73% to 14,425 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatingly strong trend on Tuesday [5]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also continuously releasing new rubber output, resulting in a relatively high supply pressure. Meanwhile, the domestic downstream automobile market is in the off - season, and the demand - driving force is insufficient. After the previous sharp decline, the bearish sentiment in the rubber market has been released [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.39% to 11,450 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures will maintain an oscillatingly strong trend on Tuesday [7]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, synthetic rubber returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and the supply pressure remains. The domestic downstream automobile market is in the off - season, and the demand - driving force is insufficient. After the previous sharp decline, the bearish sentiment in the rubber market has been released [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 8 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 观点参考 观点参考 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：供应端，7 月底部分煤矿在完成生产目标后暂时停产，煤炭产量短期下滑，但进入 8 月 以后预计迅速恢复。另外，此前国家能源局综合司的煤矿超产整治暂未引起产地安监明显收紧， 主产区煤矿旺季肩负保供职责，产量平稳运行。需求端，国家气候中心发布 8 月气候趋势预测， 显示 8 月全国大部地区气温接近常年同期到偏高，今夏第三产业和居民生活用电将有一定支撑。 库存方面，截至 7 月 31 日，环渤海 9 港煤炭总库存 2484. ...

Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market showed mixed results with significant movements in various sectors, including a rise in lumber and coking coal prices by over 2%, while egg prices fell by over 4% [1][2][4] - The China Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1424.34 points, a slight increase of 0.01% from the previous trading day [1] Lumber Market Insights - Lumber prices surged by 2.81% due to optimistic expectations for the traditional consumption peak season in September and October, alongside increased foreign pricing [2] - The inventory levels of imported New Zealand lumber remained stable, but a significant increase in incoming shipments was noted, with 14 vessels expected, a 133% week-on-week increase [2] Precious Metals Performance - Gold and silver prices rebounded by over 1% following a significant downward revision of U.S. non-farm employment data, raising concerns about the U.S. labor market and economic conditions [3] - The market anticipates a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which could further support precious metal prices in the long term [3] Egg Market Dynamics - Egg futures experienced a notable decline of over 4%, attributed to an early surge in spot prices and insufficient demand [4] - The upcoming seasonal demand period is expected to influence prices, with potential for a rebound in September contracts as the market prepares for holiday stocking [4] Industrial Silicon Trends - Industrial silicon prices fell by over 3%, primarily due to increased production from small to medium-sized enterprises in the Southwest region [5] - The demand for industrial silicon remains weak across its main downstream sectors, including organic silicon and polysilicon, with overall demand showing a downward trend [5] Energy Sector Developments - OPEC+ announced a significant increase in production, which has pressured international oil prices and led to declines in related energy and chemical products [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 8 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：供应端，7 月底部分煤矿在完成生产目标后暂时停产，煤炭产量短期下滑，但进入 8 月 以后预计迅速恢复。另外，此前国家能源局综合司的煤矿超产整治暂未引起产地安监明显收紧， 主产区煤矿旺季肩负保供职责，产量平稳运行。需求端，国家气候中心发布 8 月气候趋势预测， 显示 8 月全国大部地区气温接近常年同期到偏高，今夏第三产业和居民生活用电将有一定支撑。 库存方面，截至 7 月 31 日，环渤海 9 港煤炭总库存 2484.7 万吨，周环比大幅 ...

Group 1 - The prices of soda ash and apples have dropped over 3% [1] - The prices of coking coal, No. 20 rubber, and BR rubber have decreased by more than 2% [1] - The prices of polysilicon and silicon iron have increased by over 3% [1] Group 2 - The prices of manganese silicon, LU fuel oil, caustic soda, industrial silicon, and hot-rolled steel have risen by more than 2% [1]

7月28日，前期宏观炒作情绪有所降温，多头资金止盈减仓离场，商品期货掀起跌停潮。截止当日收 盘，纯碱、玻璃、碳酸锂、工业硅、焦炭、焦煤封跌停板。 1、纯碱主力2509合约封跌停板，报1316元/吨，跌幅为8.04%，持仓量环比上日增仓超4.66万手。 2、玻璃主力2509合约封跌停板，报1223元/吨，跌幅为9%，持仓量环比上日减仓超7.8万手，日内流出 金额9.53亿元。 3、碳酸锂主力2509合约封跌停板，报73120元/吨，跌幅为7.98%，持仓量环比上日减仓超11.2万手，日 内流出金额23.74亿元。 4、工业硅主力2509合约封跌停板，报8915元/吨，跌幅为8%，持仓量环比上日减仓超4.4万手，日内流 出金额6.56亿元。 5、焦炭主力2509合约封跌停板，报1608.5元/吨，跌幅为7.98%，持仓量环比上日减仓近4000手。 6、焦煤主力2509合约封跌停板，报1100.5元/吨，跌幅为11%，持仓量环比上日减仓超12.6万手，日内 流出金额26.66亿元。此前曾连续四个交易日触及涨停。 对于焦煤走势，中辉期货分析认为，综合来看，短期资金面过于密集，焦煤波动率加剧，后续主力关注 950—96 ...

商品期货夜盘多品种大幅走低，氧化铝跌4.5%，焦煤、焦炭一度跌4%，玻璃跌3.7%，纯碱跌超3%。 ...

软商品日报 2025/07/25 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of "anti-involution" policies in China is rising, leading to increased market activity and a surge in commodity futures, with several key contracts hitting their daily price limits [1] Group 1: Commodity Futures Performance - Coking coal main contract 2509 hit the daily limit, closing at 1259.0 CNY/ton, with a rise of 7.98% and an increase in open interest of over 55,000 contracts, attracting 1.419 billion CNY in inflows. The contract has seen a cumulative increase of over 42% this week [2] - Lithium carbonate main contract 2509 also hit the daily limit, closing at 80,520.0 CNY/ton, with a rise of 7.99% and an increase in open interest of over 54,000 contracts, with 1.211 billion CNY in inflows [2] - Glass main contract 2509 reached the daily limit, closing at 1,362.00 CNY/ton, with an increase of 8.01% and nearly 60,000 contracts added in open interest, resulting in 539 million CNY in inflows [2] - Manganese silicon main contract 2509 hit the daily limit, closing at 6,414.00 CNY/ton, with an increase of 8.02% and over 61,000 contracts added in open interest, attracting 491 million CNY in inflows [2] - Silicon iron main contract 2509 also reached the daily limit, closing at 6,166.00 CNY/ton, with an increase of 8.02% and over 43,000 contracts added in open interest, resulting in 269 million CNY in inflows [2] Group 2: Market Analysis and Expectations - Analysts from Zhonghui Futures noted that a recent meeting among leading manganese enterprises resulted in a preliminary consensus to reduce energy consumption and emissions by 40%. This unexpected news led to the price surges in silicon iron and manganese silicon [3] - The rapid increase in open interest indicates strong market participation, and if no other policy interventions occur, manganese silicon and silicon iron are expected to open higher next week, although short-term participants should be cautious of potential pullbacks [3]

近期，多晶硅、焦煤、玻璃等工业品期货价格大幅上涨，吸引了市场各方高度关注。7月7日至22日，南 华商品指数累计上涨4.9%。 笔者认为，本轮商品期货大涨的主要原因有四点： 二是产业的结构性特点。多晶硅是本轮商品上涨行情中的最强品种，其产业结构特点助推了价格上涨。 多晶硅行业是典型的寡头垄断行业，前五大企业份额占全市场的70%左右，头部企业拥有强大的价格主 导能力。当市场出现利多信号时，头部企业可通过减产、提价等方式影响市场价格，短期内极易引发期 货价格大幅波动。然而，价格持续非理性大涨会严重伤害下游产业链。下游企业无法顺利转嫁成本，利 润空间被大幅挤压甚至亏损，长此以往会打击其生产积极性，可能减少生产规模，反过来影响上游多晶 硅等产品需求。这不仅违背政策初衷，还会破坏产业链生态平衡，可能引发系统性风险。 更重要的是，上一轮商品牛市有地产、投资等领域需求的强劲支持，当时房地产蓬勃发展和大规模基础 设施建设极大地拉动了钢铁、煤炭、水泥等工业品的需求，为价格上涨提供了坚实基础。本轮"反内 卷"政策更多是希望引导供需适配。从政策角度看，只有国内需求合理发展，带动经济稳步增长，才可 能是本轮牛市的根本驱动因素。 另一方 ...