Oil Market - International oil prices continued to rise, with Brent crude for September increasing by 0.98% [1] - The U.S. EIA reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 7.698 million barrels, but the market remains focused on the renewed risks of sanctions on oil [1] - The geopolitical risks related to Iran and Russia are expected to support oil prices in the short term, and investors are advised to consider the hedging value of out-of-the-money call options on crude oil [1] Precious Metals - The U.S. reported a rebound in Q2 GDP at an annualized rate of 3%, exceeding expectations, while ADP employment increased by 104,000, also above expectations [2] - Following the data release, the dollar strengthened, putting pressure on precious metals, which are expected to continue adjusting in a volatile manner due to reduced risk aversion and clearer tariff negotiations [2] Copper - Copper prices fell sharply, with a near 20% drop in short-term prices, as the U.S. imposed tariffs on copper products, impacting market sentiment [3] - The COMEX copper inventory has reached 250,000 tons, and the market is closely watching the implementation of the U.S. tariff agreements [3] - Despite the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates, a stronger dollar is suppressing copper prices, with adjustments expected towards the 60-day moving average [3] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices continued to fluctuate, with seasonal demand showing signs of decline and inventory levels increasing [4] - The market is experiencing a drop in aluminum alloy profits, with short-term price pressures expected despite some resilience in the medium term [5] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices opened high but experienced significant fluctuations, with total market inventory continuing to rise [10] - Traders are optimistic, with spot market activity increasing, and Australian mine prices reported at $845, indicating a rebound from low levels [10] Steel Market - Steel prices are experiencing a downward trend, with rebar demand showing slight recovery but overall investment in infrastructure and manufacturing slowing down [13] - Iron ore prices are fluctuating, with global shipments exceeding last year's levels, but domestic port arrivals are weak, leading to a potential slight reduction in inventory [14] Agricultural Products - U.S. soybean quality ratings are at 70%, higher than expected, indicating a potential for early harvest expectations [35] - Corn futures are fluctuating, with U.S. corn quality ratings at 73%, suggesting a stable growth trend [39] - The domestic demand for urea is weak, with production increasing but overall demand remaining low [23] Financial Markets - The A-share market showed increased volatility, with major indices experiencing mixed movements, and the market sentiment remains relatively positive [47] - The bond market is expected to enter a repair phase, with the yield curve likely to steepen due to increased fiscal measures [48]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic commodities futures mostly closed higher, with the crude oil sector generally rising [1]. - Overseas commodity demand is experiencing a short - term weak recovery, housing prices are weakly stable, and job vacancies are lower than expected. Attention should be paid to the latest non - farm data and earnings reports. The US tariff policies may be implemented, with uncertainties remaining [7]. - The tone of the domestic policy meeting is in line with expectations, focusing on improving the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. Policies will be more flexible and forward - looking. There are administrative production - cut expectations in some industries, and domestic demand is stable with resilient exports [7]. - Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Pay attention to the progress of China - US tariff negotiations and policy signals from the Politburo meeting. Overseas, be aware of tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. A weak US dollar pattern persists in the long - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US May FHFA housing price index monthly rate was - 0.2%. US consumers' willingness to buy real estate, cars, and household durables is fluctuating at a low level. US June JOLTs job vacancies were 7.437 million, lower than expected. US tariff policies may be implemented before August 1st and 12th [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Politburo meeting's policy tone is in line with expectations, emphasizing using existing policies effectively. There are administrative production - cut expectations in some industries. Domestic demand is stable, and exports are resilient [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets have structural opportunities. Overseas, pay attention to multiple risks. Maintain strategic allocations to resources like gold and copper [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to the strengthening of the technology - growth sector. Index options may experience volatile movements. Treasury bond futures will be affected by the Politburo meeting and China - US economic and trade talks [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase, affected by Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies [8]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment of the shipping industry has declined. The focus is on the sustainability of the increase in the June loading rate of container shipping to Europe [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: The trend of black building materials has reversed. Most varieties are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as production, cost, and policy [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Non - ferrous metals are expected to receive support from the upcoming stable - growth plan. Most non - ferrous metal prices are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil supply is increasing. Most chemical products are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. Some products like asphalt and high/low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to decline [10]. - **Agriculture**: Cotton prices have declined, and the month - spread has decreased. Most agricultural products are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [10].

【国投期货|能源论事】 美国对俄制裁最后期限前置，地缘风险再度 支撑油价 能源团队 研究院 高明宇 Z0012038 2025.7.30 免责声明：国投期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货投资咨询业务资格。本报告仅供国投期货有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）的机构或个人客户（以下 简称"客户"）使用。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。如接收人并非国投期货客户，请及时退回并删除。 本报告是基于本公司认为可靠的已公开信息，但本公司不保证该等信息的准确性或完整性。本报告所载的资料、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。本报告所载的资料、意见及推测仅 反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断，本报告所指的期货或期权的价格、价值可能会波动。在不同时期，本公司可发出与本报告所载资料、意见及推测不一致的报告。客户不应视本报告 为其做出投资决策的唯一因素。在任何情况下，本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。在任何情况下，本公司不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所导致的任 何损失负任何责任。 本报告可能附带其它网站的地址或超级链接，本公司不对其内容的真实性、合法性、完整性和准确性负责。本报告提 ...

Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides operation suggestions for various futures contracts based on different factors such as market trends, policy expectations, and supply - demand relationships [2]. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small number of short positions in MO put options with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, reducing the position and maintaining a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Affected by the strong stock market and incremental policy expectations, treasury bond futures have declined, releasing some policy over - expectation risks in advance. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the Politburo meeting communique [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The short - term international gold price has formed support at the 60 - day moving average (around 760 yuan for Shanghai gold). It is possible to buy on dips during the stage. Silver is affected by commodity market sentiment, and its price fluctuates above 38 US dollars (9100 yuan), and it is advisable to buy on dips [2]. Commodity Futures Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract is expected to be weakly volatile. It is possible to short the 08 contract or short the 10 contract on rallies [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Affected by production cut expectations, steel prices have strengthened. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The exchange's position limit intervention has caused significant fluctuations in futures prices, and spot prices have increased in auctions. Mongolian coal is temporarily stable. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. - **Coke**: The fourth round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented. Coking profits are meager, and there are still expectations for further price increases. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is fluctuating narrowly, waiting for macro - level drivers. The main reference range is 78,000 - 80,000 [2]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts have decreased again, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. The main reference range is 3100 - 3500 [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices have declined slightly, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. The main reference range is 20,200 - 21,000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased market concerns about marginal supply contraction, and oil prices have risen. The WTI resistance level is given above. Options can be used to capture volatility opportunities [2][3]. - **Urea**: Export difficulties and high inventories suppress the rebound space. The short - term market is mainly in a range - bound state. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand expectations are tight, but the downstream industry chain still drags down PX trends. Pay attention to the pressure around 7000 and be cautiously bearish. Expand the PX - SC spread at low levels [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The bottom support of US soybeans is strong, and the loose supply - demand situation suppresses the price of soybean meal. The price is weakly volatile [2]. - **Pig Futures**: The spot market remains sluggish, and the previous policy benefits have been digested. It is recommended to be cautious and short the 09 contract [2]. - **Corn**: The market is mixed with both long and short factors, and the futures price is in a range - bound state [2].

2025年7月29日 甲醇产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 聚烯烃产业期现日报 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品相 MA2601 收盘价 | 7月28日 2492 | 7月25日 2587 | 涨跌 -95 | 涨跌幅 -3.67% | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2509 收盘价 | 2404 | 2519 | -115 | -4.57% | | | MA91价差 | -88 | -68 | -20 | 29.41% | | | 太仓基差 | -4 | -32 | 28 | -87.30% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 2040 | 2050 | -10 | -0.49% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2190 | 2235 | -45 | -2.01% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2400 | 2488 | -88 | -3.52% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 360 | 438 | -78 | -17.71% | | | 区域价 ...

甲醇产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年7月29日 张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品相 MA2601 收盘价 | 7月28日 2492 | 7月25日 2587 | 涨跌 -95 | 涨跌幅 -3.67% | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2509 收盘价 | 2404 | 2519 | -115 | -4.57% | | | MA91价差 | -88 | -68 | -20 | 29.41% | | | 太仓基差 | -4 | -32 | 28 | -87.30% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 2040 | 2050 | -10 | -0.49% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2190 | 2235 | -45 | -2.01% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2400 | 2488 | -88 | -3.52% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 360 | 438 | -78 | -17.71% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-洛阳 | 210 | 253 | -43 | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by a combination of factors including the performance of the US dollar and treasury yields, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchasing behavior [3][4]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The US dollar index has fallen below 98, reaching its lowest point since April, while the 10-year US Treasury yield has dropped to a one-week low, reducing the holding cost of gold [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, including the impending US tariff deadline and ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - A significant increase in central bank gold purchases has been noted, with 19 out of 36 global central banks directly procuring gold from domestic mines, up from 14 last year, indicating a shift away from reliance on US dollar settlements [3]. Group 2: Gold Price Trends and Future Outlook - Gold prices have recently surpassed the $3,400 per ounce mark, driven by the weakness of the dollar and treasury yields, geopolitical risks, and central bank buying [4]. - The upcoming tariff deadline and signals from the Federal Reserve are expected to increase market volatility, potentially leading to significant fluctuations in gold prices [4]. - Long-term trends suggest that central bank purchases and diversification of monetary reserves will enhance the strategic value of gold, although high levels of net long positions in gold futures may lead to profit-taking if the Fed delays rate cuts or geopolitical tensions ease [4].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced a significant surge, outperforming gold with a year-to-date increase of over 36% compared to gold's 30% [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since June, silver prices have risen sharply, reaching over $39 per ounce, with a peak of $39.356 per ounce on July 23, marking a 14-year high [3][6]. - The year-to-date performance of silver has surpassed that of gold, with silver's increase at 36% and gold's at 30% [2][3][4]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The surge in silver prices is attributed to its dual role as an investment and industrial metal, with increasing demand from the solar energy sector and electric vehicles [9][10]. - Geopolitical risks and rising inflation have heightened market uncertainty, leading to increased investment in precious metals as a safe haven [9][10]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Institutional investors have significantly increased their holdings in silver ETFs, with global silver ETF holdings rising to 15,158.37 tons as of July 22, 2023, reflecting a strong bullish sentiment [11][10]. - Retail investment in silver bars and coins has surged by over 40% year-on-year, indicating growing public interest in silver as an investment [12][13][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that silver prices could reach $40 per ounce within three months, driven by strong industrial demand and supply constraints [18][19]. - The global silver supply-demand gap is expected to reach 3,659 tons by 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortfall, primarily due to industrial demand [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The oil prices are expected to face downward pressure in the second half of the year due to weak demand and oversupply expectations, provided that geopolitical situations remain controllable [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The international oil market experienced significant price fluctuations in the first half of the year, influenced by geopolitical risks such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, U.S. tariff policies, and increased production from OPEC+ [1]. - Brent crude oil futures fluctuated from a high of $83 per barrel in January to a low of approximately $58 per barrel in April, with a volatility range of $25 per barrel [1]. - In June, escalating Middle Eastern conflicts led to a rebound in oil prices, with WTI prices surging over $10 per barrel, reaching a peak of $78 per barrel [1]. Group 2: Supply Factors - The increase in global oil supply is primarily driven by OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries, with OPEC+ accelerating production to capture market share [2]. - OPEC+ announced an unexpected production increase of 410,000 barrels per day on April 3, contributing to a significant drop in oil prices [2]. - The U.S. and other non-OPEC countries are expected to increase production by 800,000 barrels per day this year, which aligns with the global demand increase forecasted by the International Energy Agency (IEA) [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical risks have caused rapid fluctuations in oil prices, with U.S. sanctions on Russia and tensions with Iran impacting market expectations [3]. - The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East led to a significant price increase, with WTI and Brent prices rising over 13% in a single day [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that oil prices will remain weak in the second half of the year, influenced by OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical uncertainties, and tariff risks [5]. - The cumulative production increase from OPEC+ from April to August is projected to reach 1.918 million barrels per day, potentially leading to oversupply and price declines [5]. - WTI prices are expected to fluctuate between $58 and $72 per barrel, with a mainstream range of $55 to $65 per barrel anticipated for the second half of the year [6].

多晶硅盘中巨震振幅高达6.67%，最高触及4.6万关口，此后高位回落再次企稳4.3万之上。 多晶硅期价冲高回落 机构：短期或延续偏强整理 17日，广州期货交易所(下称"广期所")发布《关于对多晶硅期货实施交易限额及调整工业硅期货SI2509合约交易限额的通知》。 截至7月18日，本周多晶硅(N型致密料)市场均价46.2元/千克，即期制造成本约40.08元/千克，即期单公斤净利约为6.1元/千克。价格方 面，本周多晶硅N型致密料均价环比上涨5.7元/千克。成本方面，硅粉价格上涨，成本环比上涨0.53元/千克，本周多晶硅环节净利润环比 上涨5.17元/千克。(Mysteel) 银河期货表示，近期多晶硅市场传言较多，且主要交易"反内卷"、不低于成本销售。本周多晶硅、硅片、电池、组件均召开相关会议， 确定标杆成本及价格，多晶硅价格上涨已顺利向下传导，需进一步关注电站环节动向。当前主力合约涨超45000元/吨，理论上厂家卖交 割已不再低于完全成本。价格已至高位，前期多单可止盈离场，新进多单可日内操作。工业硅方面，银河期货分析称，近两周期货价格 走强，西北硅厂向贸易商大量出货，工业硅库存由工厂转移至贸易商，部分显性库存隐 ...