昨日11月24日（星期一），黄金早盘开盘后开始下跌，在下跌至4040附近企稳开始慢涨，欧盘以及美盘延续上涨，到收盘前最高上涨至4140附近，日线收出 一根阳线。 一、基本面 1、降息预期主导行情：美联储官员集体转鸽，"鹰王"沃勒、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯等重量级人物释放降息信号，芝商所FedWatch工具显示12月降息25个基 点的概率从上周40%飙升至81%。本周美国零售销售、PPI等重磅数据将密集发布，市场预计数据偏软或进一步坐实降息预期，黄金作为零息资产的吸引力 大幅提升。 2、地缘风险推升避险需求：基辅凌晨拉响防空警报，俄军发射多种导弹致乌克兰全境高度戒备；俄拒绝欧洲版和平方案，美乌和平谈判进展渺茫，俄乌冲 突升级风险激活黄金避险属性。 3、今日关注：21:30，美国9月零售销售月率、美国9月PPI；23:00，美国11月谘商会消费者信心指数。 二、技术面 1、日线级别：上周市场经历震荡整理后，本周一以慢涨姿态突破上周高点并收阳，短期偏强格局明确。这一走势不仅打破了前期震荡区间的束缚，还形成 了"震荡后突破"的强势形态，暗示多头动能正在逐步积聚。 2、四小时级别：黄金价格呈现连阳上涨态势，整体运行结构与前 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-25燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 近期多空分析 利多： 1. 俄罗斯燃油出口限制 2. 美俄会谈取消，对俄石油相关企业发起制裁 利空： 行情驱动：供应端受地缘风险影响与需求中性共振 风险点：OPEC+内部团结破坏；战争风险升级 1.需求端乐观仍待验证 2.上游端原油承压受挫 燃料油： 1、基本面：船燃供应商表示，高硫燃料油的现货需求大多疲软，仅获得部分定期合约提货的支撑，不过即期提 货的报价较为激进，以争取询盘。同一批供应商表示，高硫燃料油稳定的套利货流入可能在11月剩余时间内保持 新加坡供应充足，而充足的库存给11月末和12月码头交货船货的估值带来了 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, with a driving force for price decline but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] Core Viewpoints - The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the Venezuela geopolitical risk are the key factors affecting the energy market this week. The energy market is generally under pressure due to factors such as geopolitical situation, supply - demand imbalance, and the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts [2][3][4] Summary by Categories Crude Oil - The Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation has made progress, and the Fed's wavering attitude towards a December interest rate cut has pressured crude oil and other risk assets. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, so the previous bearish strategy should be continued [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil is dragged down by the cost side. High - sulfur fuel oil has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with limited impact of geopolitical factors on Russian exports and high - level exports from the Middle East to Asia during the off - peak power generation season. The demand for feedstock in China is expected to gradually decline. Although the US sanctions on Russia on November 21 may cause short - term fluctuations, the medium - term supply surplus will suppress the market. Low - sulfur fuel oil was previously supported by unstable overseas refineries, but the partial restart of the Azur refinery on November 29 and the possible increase in supply from the Dangote RFGC device maintenance at the end of December will increase the subsequent pressure [3] Asphalt - The price in the northern market remains stable supported by some refineries switching to produce residual oil and the terminal project rush - demand, while the price in the southern market has been declining due to abundant resource supply and refinery shipment pressure, narrowing the north - south price difference. The weekly shipment volume has been below 400,000 tons since the middle of the month, at a low level in the same period in the past four years. In the short term, the main contract on the trading floor is supported at 3,000 yuan/ton, but the weak crude oil trend still suppresses the asphalt market sentiment, and with the expectation of supply increase, the asphalt is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly [4]

行业 能源化工周报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油、沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 | ⇒ 原油 . | | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish or bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, with the same implications as crude oil [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, similar to the above [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, also suggesting a slightly bullish or bearish trend with poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term multi/empty trend is in a relatively balanced state, and it's better to wait and see [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The cyclical inflection point of oil prices caused by supply contraction has not been seen, and the rebound space of oil prices due to geopolitical factors is limited, with the market trending weakly in a volatile manner [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil is under multiple pressures, and its weak trend is expected to continue, while the low - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are strengthening, but the supply rebound risk from the RFCC unit maintenance of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria at the end of December needs attention [2] - The cost support for asphalt is continuously weakening, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are bearish [3] - The supply of liquefied petroleum gas has an incremental bearish suppression, and the supply - demand relationship has weakened marginally, causing the LPG trading floor to turn weak [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell further, with the SC01 contract dropping 1.67% during the day [2] - The geopolitical risk premium between Russia and Ukraine was suppressed, and the rebound space of oil prices due to geopolitical factors is limited, with the market trending weakly in a volatile manner [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Overnight crude oil price drop dragged down the fuel oil market [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil faces multiple pressures, including the possible decline of geopolitical factors, the steady increase in production in the Middle East, the end of the power generation peak season, and the possible weakening of refinery feed demand. Its weak trend is expected to continue [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are strengthening due to supply - side disturbances, strong diesel cracking, and increased demand. However, the supply rebound risk from the RFCC unit maintenance of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria at the end of December needs attention [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to - 11 US dollars per barrel, and the cost support continued to weaken [3] - Since November, the weekly shipment volume has decreased month - on - month and is at a low level in the same period of the past four years. The commercial inventory depletion has slowed down, and the year - on - year increase of social inventory has expanded. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are bearish [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - This week, the commodity volume decreased but the arrival volume increased, with supply having an incremental bearish suppression [4] - The profitability improvement of butane dehydrogenation units boosted the downstream chemical enterprises' enthusiasm for starting work, and the demand on the combustion side improved due to the significant cooling in many places [4] - The supply - demand relationship weakened marginally, causing the LPG trading floor to turn weak [4]

数据显示，11月20日上海黄金现货价格报价932.00元/克，相较于期货主力价格（932.56元/克）贴水0.56 元/克。 里奇蒙联储总裁巴尔金表示，他希望即将公布的数据和正在进行的社区访谈能够帮助明确经济走向，目 前美联储决策者仍然围绕通胀和就业目标哪一个面临更大风险争论不休，并且在货币政策方向上存在分 歧。巴尔金称，随着美国政府重新开放，即将发布的官方经济数据可能有助于决策者达成共识，过去一 段时间，可获得的信息反映出相互矛盾的经济形势。 美国政府数据显示，从9月中旬到10月中旬，续领失业金人数大幅上升近4万人，表明在经济环境不确定 的背景下，企业招聘意愿减弱，10月失业率可能偏高。其他数据显示，11月住宅建筑商信心连续第19个 月低迷。全美住宅建筑商协会(NAHB)/富国银行住房市场指数本月仅上升1点，至38点。 【机构观点】 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 11月20日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 932.56 | 0.22% | 223736 | 73837 | 打开APP ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Recently, crude oil has been fluctuating within a narrow range, with frequent switches between bullish and bearish sentiments and no clear trend. On Wednesday, crude oil rebounded slightly, mainly driven by the refined product side. The trends of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US have diverged, with diesel surging to a new stage high, possibly related to the approaching Russian sanctions date, but more of an emotional premium. Subsequently, the seasonal increase in the operating load in Europe and the US will ease the supply pressure. Market concerns cannot be ignored: macroeconomic negatives have been temporarily ignored, the overnight panic index has risen, and European and American stock markets have fallen, while crude oil has not priced in this risk. After the subsequent positive factors fade, a corrective market may occur. Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia-Ukraine, South America, and Africa provide potential bullish support, but the market has shown fatigue in reacting to these risks, and actual events are needed to have a pulling effect. Going forward, attention should be focused on the sustainability of the gasoline-diesel divergence and the impact of macro funds' risk aversion sentiment on crude oil [1]. Summary of Related Catalogs Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Trade within a range. The resistance level for Brent above is $65, and the support level below is $60. - Arbitrage: Hold off for now. - Options: Hold off for now [5]. Logic Analysis - The rally was driven by sentiment in the refined product side, with divergence and weak follow-up as key features. The core driving force behind the overnight rally in crude oil came from the refined product side, with a significant divergence in the trends of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US. Diesel soared to a new stage high due to the approaching Russian sanctions date (Russia mainly exports diesel and Europe mainly consumes diesel), providing emotional support for crude oil. However, this driving force is more of a short-term emotional premium - the seasonal increase in the operating load in Europe and the US will ease the supply pressure of gasoline and diesel. At the same time, the follow-up increase in the crude oil market has significantly weakened, failing to form a strong follow-up pattern [8]. - Deteriorating macro sentiment hides potential risks, which may trigger a corrective market later. At the macro level, negative factors have been temporarily ignored by the market but have planted the seeds of risk. The overnight panic index rose significantly and lifted from a low level, European and American stock markets fell across the board, and the US stock market hit a new stage low. The risk aversion sentiment in the financial market is gradually fermenting. Currently, the crude oil market has not priced in this macro risk. If the positive support from geopolitical and refined product sides fades later, the market may reprice the fundamentals and macro logic, leading to a significant corrective market [9]. - Geopolitical risks provide emotional support, but it's difficult to have a substantial pulling effect without real events. There are numerous geopolitical risk points, including the high-intensity conflict between Russia and Ukraine, US pressure on Venezuela and Mexico, and the turmoil in Sudan (interruption of oil exports) and Libya in Africa, which constitute long-term potential bullish factors for the crude oil market. However, the crude oil market has shown fatigue in reacting to geopolitical news. These risks can only provide short-term emotional support and are difficult to have a substantial pulling effect. Only when geopolitical events actually occur and materialize will they have a corresponding impact on oil prices according to the degree of risk [10]. Related News - For the week ending November 14 in the US, API crude oil inventories increased by 4.448 million barrels, compared with a previous increase of 1.3 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 790,000 barrels, compared with a previous decrease of 43,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.546 million barrels, compared with a previous decrease of 1.385 million barrels. Refined oil inventories increased by 577,000 barrels, compared with a previous increase of 944,000 barrels [11]. - Sources said that due to a drone attack by Ukraine on Friday, the crude oil shipments at Russia's Novorossiysk port were delayed by 2 to 3 days compared with the original plan [11]. - According to foreign media reports, the US Treasury Department claimed in an unusual statement that its recent efforts to weaken Russia have been successful. The statement showed the market impact of measures targeting Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. The office responsible for overseeing US sanctions at the Treasury Department said that "driven by the effectiveness of US sanctions, the demand for Russian oil is plummeting." The press release stated that various grades of Russian oil "are trading far below all other international prices," with some at multi-year lows. The statement - a November 17 memo from the economic analysis department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctions - said that nearly a dozen major Indian buyers indicated that they plan to suspend purchases of Russian oil for December delivery. A Treasury spokesperson said in an email that the Treasury is prepared to take further action to end the conflict if necessary [11][12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: One red star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [5][6] - Fuel oil: Three red stars, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Asphalt: Three green stars, suggesting a clearer downward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] Core Viewpoints - The oil price has continued to show a weak and volatile performance since the end of October. The supply-side contraction-induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not been seen yet, and a weak and volatile judgment on crude oil is maintained [2] - High-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by geopolitical factors in the short term, but the medium-term supply pattern tends to be loose. Low-sulfur fuel oil has been strong recently due to supply-side fluctuations, but medium-term supply pressure still exists [2] - The cost support for asphalt has been continuously weakening, the demand is expected to follow the seasonal weakening pattern, and the medium- and long-term fundamentals have a bearish impact on BU [3] - The supply and demand of liquefied petroleum gas have tightened marginally, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since the end of October, the oil price has continued to show a weak and volatile performance. Geopolitical risks have boosted the oil price, but the rebound height has always been limited [2] - According to the monthly reports of the three major institutions, considering the suspension of production increases by OPEC+ in the first quarter of next year and the strict implementation of production cut compensation, the global oil market will have a supply surplus of 1.84 million barrels per day and 3.31 million barrels per day this year and next year respectively [2] - The supply-side contraction-induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not been seen yet, and a weak and volatile judgment on crude oil is maintained [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by geopolitical factors in the short term. The subsequent actual exports of Russia still have uncertainties, but the medium-term supply pattern tends to be loose [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil has been strong recently due to supply-side fluctuations, but the possible increase in low-sulfur shipping volume caused by the planned maintenance of the RFCC unit of the Kaigute refinery at the end of December needs attention, and medium-term supply pressure still exists [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to -$11 per barrel, and the cost support has been continuously weakening [3] - Since November, the weekly shipment volume has decreased month-on-month and is also at a low level in the same period of the past four years [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" end-year rush demand expectation has been falsified, and the subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening pattern. The medium- and long-term fundamentals have a bearish impact on BU [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The increase in propane discount supports the import landed cost [4] - The improvement in the profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start operations, and the demand on the combustion side has improved [4] - The supply and demand of liquefied petroleum gas have tightened marginally, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: One red star, indicating a bullish bias but with limited trading opportunities on the market [5][6] - Fuel oil: Three red stars, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Asphalt: Three green stars, meaning a clearer downward trend and relatively appropriate short-selling opportunities [5][6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Three red stars, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] Report's Core View - The oil market is facing different supply and demand situations, with crude oil expected to be volatile and weak, while fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and liquefied petroleum gas are expected to be bullish, and asphalt is expected to be bearish [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since late October, oil prices have continued to show a volatile and weak performance, with geopolitical risks providing some support but limited rebound [2] - According to the three major institutions' monthly reports, considering OPEC+'s suspension of production increases and strict implementation of production cut compensation in the first quarter of next year, the global oil market will have a supply surplus of 1.84 million barrels per day this year and 3.31 million barrels per day next year [2] - The supply-side contraction has not yet led to a cyclical inflection point in oil prices, and a volatile and weak outlook is maintained [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil is currently supported by geopolitical factors, but the mid-term supply pattern is expected to be loose as the Middle East increases production and the power generation peak season ends [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil has been strong recently due to supply-side fluctuations, but mid-term supply pressure still exists, especially considering the planned maintenance of the RFCC unit at the Kert refinery in late December [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to -$11 per barrel, weakening cost support [3] - Weekly shipments have decreased month-on-month since November and are at a low level in the same period in the past four years [3] - Commercial inventory depletion has continued to slow down, and the year-on-year increase in social inventory has widened since the end of October [3] - The expected rush demand in the "14th Five-Year Plan" has been disproven, and subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening pattern, with negative signals for year-end demand compared to last year [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The increase in propane discount supports the import cost [4] - The improvement in the profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start production, and the demand for combustion has improved due to the significant cooling in many places [4] - The inventory rates of refineries and ports have decreased, and the supply and demand have tightened marginally, leading to a bullish outlook [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil continues to oscillate, lacking short - term drivers, with geopolitical drivers potentially becoming the short - term main line; some energy and chemical products operate independently of crude oil, and the blending logic may drive the upward movement of aromatic products; methanol has high inventory pressure but may have a mid - term long - making logic [1][3]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Logic**: Last week's large fluctuations were due to the continuous strengthening of European and American refined oil and the expected weakening in the EIA monthly report. Currently, short - term drivers have not changed significantly, and the supply - demand logic is not smooth. Geopolitical drivers are worthy of attention, and a short - selling opportunity may arise after the US military action against Venezuela [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillating structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: Recently, it has been relatively strong, with the rebound logic including short - term supply - demand improvement and the blending logic. The mid - term is still pessimistic due to supply - demand surplus and seasonal inventory accumulation [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure, with a short - term support at 6400. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly level and look for short - selling opportunities after the daily - level rebound [8]. Rubber - **Logic**: The short - term contradiction is not prominent, and it is necessary to track the inventory accumulation rate. There is no fundamental driver for now [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 15130, but the upward space is limited [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The internal contradiction is not large, and it is necessary to focus on the cost - end butadiene drive, which also faces mid - term inventory swelling pressure [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [12]. PX - **Logic**: The polyester industry chain's self - contradiction is not large. Pay attention to the blending logic and the geopolitical upgrade risk in the Caribbean region [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure, with a short - term support at 6715. Hold long positions on the hourly level with a stop - loss at 6715 [16]. PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, pay attention to the blending logic and the geopolitical upgrade risk in the Caribbean region [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure, with a short - term support at 4620. Hold long positions on the hourly level with a stop - loss at 4620 [19]. PP - **Logic**: High supply pressure continues, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the cost - end crude oil drive [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure, with a short - term pressure at 6520. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - **Logic**: High inventory in ports suppresses the market, but domestic supply - demand structure has improved. Wait for long - making opportunities after the Iranian gas restriction is implemented and the price breaks through the pressure level. Also, pay attention to geopolitical drivers [25][27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and short - term are in a downward structure. There are signs of short - term stabilization. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 2040, and look for long - making opportunities after the price breaks through 2040 [27]. PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, with no upward driver due to weak real - estate demand [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: High supply pressure and inventory accumulation. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level are in a downward structure. The downward momentum has weakened. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [32]. Plastic - **Logic**: High supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [35]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, with a downward fundamental drive [39]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. The downward momentum has weakened. Hold short positions on the remaining hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 1245 [39]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: High supply pressure and weak demand, with no upward driver [40]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [40].