12月2日，近期市场动向显示，XRP与比特币正接近关键技术支撑位，而纳斯达克十一月价格表现则显 现回调压力。FPG财盛国际认为，当前行情处于多空博弈的关键阶段，投资者应密切关注价格行为，以 应对潜在波动。对于XRP而言，本周价格下跌超过6%，触及约2美元的关键支撑位。自去年十二月以 来，该位置已成为市场多空力量交锋的重要节点，多次出现下影线拉长的周K线，显示卖压在该区域逐 渐减缓。FPG财盛国际认为，如果该支撑位被有效突破，可能引发投资者集中抛售，从而导致XRP价格 出现更大幅度回落。相反，若价格企稳于该位置并成功突破自七月以来的下降趋势线，约2.50美元附 近，XRP的中期上涨格局可能重新得到确认。 比特币方面，当前价格约为87092美元，正徘徊在被认为是近年来最重要的支撑组合附近，包括自2023 年起形成的上涨趋势线、100周简单移动均线以及从2022年熊市底部到近期创纪录高点的38.2%斐波那 契回调位。FPG财盛国际认为，这一支撑区域的重要性不言而喻，一旦价格跌破，短期下行风险显著上 升，可能首先回落至今年4月的波段低点约74500美元，进一步下探则可能逼近2021年牛市高点附近的 70000美元水平 ...

Group 1 - Nickel prices are currently around $14,850 per ton, with Shanghai nickel futures rising by 1,130 to 117,260 yuan per ton, and stainless steel futures increasing by 80 to 12,455 yuan per ton, indicating a stable upward trend in the market [1] - The spot market for stainless steel remains stable in the morning, with strong price support in the afternoon, driven by bullish sentiment as the month-end approaches, leading to increased market competition [1] - In the 304 stainless steel segment, cold-rolled resources are reported in the range of 12,200-12,500 yuan, while hot-rolled resources are around 12,100 yuan, with trading activity becoming cautious after a brief improvement [1] Group 2 - The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with trading activity slowing down despite a potential reversal in short-term trends, indicating that the remaining days of the month will be challenging [2]

| 碳酸锂日评20251124:仍具回调空间 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-11-21 | 2025-11-20 | 2025-11-14 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | 近月合约 收盘价 | 90960.00 | 98880.00 | 85720.00 | -7,920.00 | -5- | | 连一合约 收盘价 | 91020.00 | 98980.00 | 87220.00 | -7,960.00 | | | 连二合约 收盘价 | 91160.00 | 99160.00 | 87360.00 | -8,000.00 | | | 连三合约 收盘价 | 91160.00 | 99160.00 | 87060.00 | -8,000.00 | | | 收盘价 | 91020.00 | 98980.00 | 87360.00 | -7,960.00 | 11 | | 碳酸锂期货 成交堂(手) 活跃合约 (元/吨) | 1137824.00 | 1595646.00 | 757432.00 | -457 ...

姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空交织，煤焦震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：截至 11 月 14 日当周，样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量 合计 109.17 万吨，周环比降 0.51 万吨，30 家独立焦化厂吨焦盈利-34 元/吨，环比降 12 元/吨。下游 247 家钢厂日均铁水产量 236.88 万吨，周 环比增 2.66 万吨。库存方面，本周产业链焦炭库存总体去化，最新一期 统计口径内总库存为 879.35 万吨，周环比小幅下降 7.7 万吨，较去年同 期库 ...

行情来源：富途 据智通财经观察，泛远国际股价异动是消息面、技术面与资金面共同作用的结果，且多空博弈特征显 著，后续走势需谨慎观察。 折价配售引正向解读 消息面上，11月12日，泛远国际发布公告，拟通过配售代理向不少于六名独立承配人最多配售1.56亿股 新股，配售价每股0.455港元，较11月12日收盘价0.51港元折让约10.78%。若全部配售完成，所得款项 总额约7098万港元，净额约6962万港元，其中不少于6000万港元将用于加强现有物流业务（含仓库扩张 等），剩余资金补充一般营运资金。 通常股票配售因股本稀释、供给增加易被视为短期利空，但此次市场却将其解读为"利好大于利空"。一 方面，对于物流企业而言，资金注入能有效提升运营能力和业务规模，增强市场竞争力，这一明确的业 务扩张规划让投资者看到了公司未来发展潜力。 另一方面，本次配售股份占公司扩大后已发行股本的约 16.67%，这样的配售比例没有过度稀释现有股 东权益。因此，市场更倾向于将配售股份解读为公司优化资金结构、蓄力发展的积极举措，进而吸引了 资金买入推动股价走高。 11月13日，泛远国际（02516）股价上演强势异动，一扫前期震荡下行态势。公司 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate present a pattern of strong supply and demand. However, there is an expectation that the power demand may peak and weaken at the end of the year. The downstream market is adopting a wait - and - see attitude towards high prices, leading to a sluggish spot market. It is expected that the game between bulls and bears will intensify, and the price fluctuation risk of lithium carbonate will increase. Production enterprises can consider high - level selling hedging, and the operating range is expected to be between 71,000 and 91,000 [6][96] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of lithium carbonate first declined and then rose, with a weekly decline of 0.07%. The trading volume decreased to 3.47 million lots (-180,000), and the open interest decreased to 491,000 lots (-194,000). The basis was at a discount of 1,900 yuan/ton [8][9] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Lithium Ore - In October, China's lithium spodumene production was 7,350 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%, while lithium mica production was 7,700 tons LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 5.5%. In September, the import volume of lithium concentrate reached 520,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.6% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0%. In August, the volume of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China reached 128,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.3% and a year - on - year increase of 26.6% [13][17][21] 3.2.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In November, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 30,164 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 19.4% [26] 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,534 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. In September, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20.5%. In September, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 11,101 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.1% [31][33] 3.2.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In November, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 45%, with a scheduled production of 29,970 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In September, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 6,526 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.7% [40] 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 88,990 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. In November, the scheduled production of iron phosphate was 341,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 46% [43] 3.3.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 19,234 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6%. In September, the import volume increased while the export volume decreased [44] 3.3.3 Ternary Precursors - In November, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 49%, with a scheduled production of 92,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 20.4%. In September, the export volume increased slightly [53] 3.3.4 Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In November, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, with a scheduled production of 11,990 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4% and a year - on - year decrease of 4%. The operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 69%, with a scheduled production of 13,585 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 75% [58] 3.3.5 Electrolyte - In November, the scheduled production of electrolyte was 210,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year increase of 28.0%. In September, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [63] 3.4 Terminal Demand 3.4.1 Power Batteries - In September, the production of power batteries was 151.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. The loading volume was 76 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 21.6% and a year - on - year increase of 39.4%. Last week, the production of ternary power cells was 7.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%, and the production of lithium iron phosphate power cells was 22.41 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% [66][67] 3.4.2 New Energy Vehicles - In September, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.617 million, a month - on - month increase of 16.3% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The sales volume was 1.604 million, a month - on - month increase of 15.0% and a year - on - year increase of 24.6% [72] 3.4.3 Energy Storage - In November, the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries was 55.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 31.2%. In September, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 6.45 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 25.0%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.34 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 46.3% [78] 3.4.4 Consumer Electronics - In September, the production of Chinese smartphones was 122.75 million units, a month - on - month increase of 22.3% and a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The production of Chinese micro - electronic computers was 30.98 million units, a month - on - month increase of 11.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2% [81] 3.5 Cost - The prices of lithium ore, lithium spodumene concentrate, and lithium mica all decreased. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate dropped by 17 US dollars per ton, and the price of lithium mica decreased by 60 yuan per ton [86] 3.6 Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 3,405 tons. Structurally, the inventory of smelters decreased by 1,336 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 1,280 tons, and other inventories decreased by 790 tons. Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 740 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials increased by 663 tons [91][92] 3.7 Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, the fundamentals show strong supply and demand, but there are concerns about end - year demand weakening. The game between bulls and bears will intensify, and price fluctuations will increase. Production enterprises can consider high - level selling hedging, with an expected operating range of 71,000 - 91,000 [96]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing tug-of-war in the gold market, highlighting the shifting roles of institutional and retail investors amidst significant price volatility and the upcoming U.S. inflation data as a critical factor influencing market direction [5][9][11]. Market Dynamics - The gold market is experiencing a significant shift, with institutions seemingly exiting and retail investors entering, although the roles of both groups are fluid and change with market conditions [5][6]. - On October 23, an analyst suggested a short position on gold at $4102 per ounce, with a stop-loss at $4108 and a target at $4060, indicating a strategy of small losses for larger gains [5]. - However, the market reacted differently, with gold prices rising and breaking through key resistance levels, prompting the analyst to switch to a long position at $4104 per ounce [6][7]. Price Movements - On the same day, gold prices exhibited extreme volatility, closing at $4138.42 per ounce, reflecting a 1.81% increase [7]. - The options market showed a buildup of put options below $4100 per ounce, while call options above this level were quickly cleared, indicating a market under pressure and poised for a breakout around $4155 per ounce [8]. Inflation Data Impact - The upcoming U.S. September CPI data is seen as a pivotal variable for the gold market, with expectations of an increase from 2.9% to 3.1% and core CPI remaining at 3.1% [11]. - Market expectations suggest a 96.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, which could be influenced by the CPI data [11]. Potential Scenarios - Three potential scenarios based on the CPI data are outlined: 1. If CPI increases ≤0.2%, expectations for rate cuts may rise, pushing gold to $4175 per ounce [12]. 2. If CPI increases ≥0.5%, rate cut expectations may diminish, leading gold to drop below $4095 per ounce [12]. 3. If CPI is around 0.3%, gold may oscillate between $4095 and $4145 per ounce, creating opportunities for options strategies [12]. Historical Context - The article draws parallels between the current gold market and past situations, such as early 2013, where conflicting factors led to unpredictable price movements [15]. - The upcoming CPI data is positioned as a potential catalyst for breaking the current market equilibrium, with implications for both gold and the U.S. dollar [15][16].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report -受多头平仓和空头加仓影响，红枣期货主力合约CJ2601上午开盘1小时便跌破3%，随后有所回升，截至10月22日下午收盘，收盘价为11265元/吨，跌幅达1.18%，成交量315011手，持仓量187200，日增 -630，多空博弈剧烈，当前开称价符合预期但减产幅度未定，资金扰动下盘面触底反弹 [1] -新季减产已定性但幅度未定，市场对此争议较大，当前盘面价格较符合小减产概率，若最终为大减产，短期盘面存在进一步上涨机会 [3] -当前新季主流价符合预期，河北销区市场货源供应少量，下游采购积极性提高，预计短期内现货价格以稳为主，关注后续下树进度及价格变化 [5][7] -旧季库存较高，去库进程缓慢，潜在压力或在下树后彰显，当前矛盾更聚焦于新季方面 [6] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs New Season's Production Reduction is Qualitatively Determined but the Magnitude is Uncertain -2025年受前年树体营养消耗和关键生长期高温天气影响，产区一茬坐果一般，不过二茬坐果较好，三四茬花存在补量，据Mysteel初步预测，新季产量在56 - 62万吨，较2024年度下降约20 - 25% [3] -市场对减产幅度争议较大，55万吨附近小减产及40万吨左右大减产分歧较盛，当前盘面价格较符合小减产概率，若最终为大减产，短期盘面存在进一步上涨机会 [3] Current New Season's Mainstream Price Meets Expectations -国庆后新季红枣下树在即，新疆主灰枣产区订园进程较快，受积温及节气影响下树时间较去年提前约一周左右 [4] -主流价格参考6.50 - 8.00元/公斤，优质优价，土枣原料价格更高，今年红枣商品率或在80%附近，质量偏好高于去年 [5] Old Season's Inventory is Digested Slowly and Still Under Pressure -近期部分客商积极出售库存货源以回笼资金备战新季收购，随着天气转凉，下游拿货积极性有所提高，市场交易氛围提升 [6] -截至2025年10月16日，36家样本点物理库存约9009吨，较上周减少158吨，环比减少1.72%，同比增加94.58%，样本点库存继续下降但仍处近几年高位水平 [6] -按正常消费水平来看，最终旧季库存约剩30 - 35万吨，当前矛盾更聚焦于新季方面，旧季库的潜在压力或在下树后彰显 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold futures prices, reaching a historical high of $4,398 per ounce, indicates extreme volatility in the gold and silver futures market, suggesting that the current bull market may be nearing its end, potentially leading to a period of turbulent trading [1] Group 1: Commodity Market Dynamics - The number of bulk commodity transport ships waiting to dock at Chinese ports has reached its highest level of the year due to geopolitical tensions between the US and China, with an average waiting time of 2.66 days as of October 19, marking a 17% increase from the previous week [1] - China's status as the largest importer of bulk commodities means that ongoing congestion could disrupt global supply chains, affecting the transportation of liquid goods like crude oil and bulk commodities such as iron ore [1] - The US has initiated measures in the shipping sector, prompting China to impose high additional fees on vessels associated with the US, indicating an escalation in the shipping-related geopolitical struggle [1] Group 2: Gold Futures Market Analysis - Technically, the bulls in December gold futures maintain an overall advantage in the short term, with the next target being to push prices above the key resistance level of the historical high of $4,398 [1] - Conversely, the bears aim to drive futures prices below the critical technical support level of $4,000 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is at a critical juncture, with its stock price at 457.2 HKD as of October 9, reflecting a 2.74% increase, and is currently navigating key technical levels [1] Technical Analysis - The short-term moving average (MA10) is at 443.36 HKD, closely aligned with MA30 at 444.17 HKD and MA60 at 439.92 HKD, indicating the market is seeking a clear direction [1] - The current price is within a crucial technical range, facing resistance at 459 HKD and support at 439 HKD [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 51, indicating a neutral market sentiment, while several oscillators show mild bullish signals, suggesting potential buying opportunities [1] - The Average Directional Index (ADX) indicates limited trend strength, implying that a breakout requires additional momentum [1] Support and Resistance Levels - Major support is identified at 439 HKD, with secondary support at 433 HKD; resistance is at 459 HKD, with the next target at 468 HKD upon a breakout [3] - The recent five-day volatility of HKEX is 2.8%, providing a relatively stable reference for investors [3] Derivative Products Performance - Recent performance of derivative products shows significant leverage; for instance, when HKEX's stock fell by 0.62%, Morgan Stanley's bear certificate rose by 7% and UBS's bear certificate increased by 8% [3] - High-leverage options include Bank of China call warrant 17568 with 9.5x leverage and UBS call warrant 17736 with 9.2x leverage, both having an exercise price of 530.5 HKD [6] - For cautious investors, Bank of China put warrant 19860 offers 8.5x leverage, while UBS put warrant 19854 provides 8.3x leverage, both with an exercise price of 387.8 HKD [6] Bull and Bear Certificates - For bullish investors, Morgan Stanley's bull certificate 56785 offers 15.7x leverage with a recovery price of 426 HKD, while another option, Morgan Stanley's bull certificate 66112, provides 14x leverage with a recovery price of 422 HKD [8] - For bearish investors, Société Générale's bear certificate 60816 offers 19.9x leverage with a recovery price of 470 HKD, and UBS's bear certificate 60541 provides 19.5x leverage with a similar recovery price [8] Summary - Overall, HKEX shows a mildly bullish short-term technical outlook, but effective breakthroughs require volume support [11]