Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions in a South American country have created short-term support for the oil market, indirectly benefiting PTA, but the onset of the demand off-season and maintenance in downstream polyester factories may lead to a mixed market outlook for PTA, potentially resulting in a high opening followed by a decline [1][2][7]. Geopolitical Impact - On January 3, the U.S. initiated an attack in a South American country, capturing its leader, which raised concerns about potential impacts on the country's oil production and exports, providing short-term support for oil prices and possibly boosting PTA prices [2][3]. - The oil exports from the South American country are currently paralyzed, significantly affecting its logistics system, which is expected to support the PTA market from the supply side [3]. Cost and Supply Dynamics - The geopolitical issues are expected to create upward pressure on costs, as the South American country's oil production is primarily high-sulfur heavy oil, which has higher extraction, transportation, and processing costs compared to light crude oil [3]. - China's imports of oil from the South American country account for about 7%, and any disruption in logistics may impact these imports, positively affecting market sentiment towards PTA [3]. Demand Seasonality - The demand off-season is approaching, with historical data indicating a 9 percentage point decrease in operating rates for downstream polyester factories during January and February, which is bearish for the PTA market [5]. - By mid-January, polyester production is expected to decline to around 6.5 million tons, a decrease of 490,000 tons compared to December 2025, due to maintenance schedules for polyester plants [5]. Market Outlook - The PTA market is anticipated to experience a tug-of-war between cost support from geopolitical issues and declining demand, with short-term price fluctuations expected to range between 5,100 and 5,250 yuan per ton [7]. - While the geopolitical situation may provide temporary market support, the high costs associated with high-sulfur heavy oil and the anticipated decline in PTA demand are likely to offset the initial positive effects of rising oil prices [7].

周一黄金大跌近250美元，一度逼近4300美元大关；周二冲高4400美元大关回落，周三盘中受芝加哥商品交易所提高保证金影响，盘中一度跌穿4300美元至 4275美元后迅速拉升，之后4300美元上方反复，日线收盘上下影小阴线近似十字线！ 黄金大跌后预计要震荡一阵子，接下来的重点仍旧是4400美元大关，冲高阻力看回落，站上4400美元预示着4550以来下跌面临着结束；短期阻力，关注 4370-75区域。下方4300美元大关依旧是关键，这个位置反复强调了其重要性，周二只是盘中虚破，接下来坚守4300多头依然看强势，下破则4275美元大概 率撑不住，关注测试多头生命线3886以来趋势支撑；守住生命线这里看多头继续上涨，跌落就要深度下跌了。 操作上，日内短线4400大关压制高空，站上4400空头回避；下方4300坚守依然可做多，再次破位多头就要谨慎了，则顺势跟一波短空，待触及趋势支撑后布 局多头，下破严格止损。非杠杆产品，积存金等，我们说等节后机会，第一个买点靠近趋势支撑轻仓参与，做好补仓准备，下跌过程中分批逐步买入！实物 金拿着就行，以年为单位！ 白银，史诗级暴跌后，周二反弹也是生猛，一度达10%以上，至78美元；周 ...

12月30日，周一午后，黄金与白银市场在高位遭遇猛烈抛压，价格录得史上最大单日跌幅之一。OEXN 注意到，这种剧烈的波动主要源于短线期货交易者在大涨后的获利了结，以及部分多头的平仓离场。在 今日的暴跌之前，白银曾一度冲高至82.67美元的历史新高，而黄金此前也创下了4584.00美元的辉煌纪 录。目前，金银价格双双下挫，反映出市场在高位震荡后的剧烈修正压力。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 针对当前的市场调整，OEXN认为，尽管今日跌幅显著，但目前仍应视其为上升趋势中的修正性回落。 虽然技术图形受到一定程度的惊扰，但并未造成根本性的破坏。OEXN同时强调，未来48小时的走势将 具有决定性意义：如果卖压在周二和周三持续并形成"连击"，则意味着近期顶部可能已经确立；若能迅 速反弹，则今日低点将成为上升路径上的重要支撑。可以说，这两天的表现将直接锚定未来数周的行情 方向。 在外部环境方面，相关数据表示，美元指数呈现小幅走强态势，而原油价格则维持在每桶59.25美元附 近波动。与此同时，10年期美国国债收益率录得4.118%。OEXN通过对市场机制的观察发现，由于年底 流动性调节和仓位部署，1 ...

期货市场：美联储内部分歧美指微涨空头回补，隔夜伦锡收跌5.84%；最新收盘报40010，比前一交易 日下跌2480美元，跌幅为5.84%，成交量为1281手，持仓量23885手减少10；国内方面，夜盘沪期锡大 幅回撤，尾盘大幅收跌。主力合约沪锡2602收报319290元/吨，跌23050，跌幅报6.73%。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）12月29日伦锡库存量报5145吨，较前一交易日库存量增加250吨。 长江锡业网讯：今日沪锡期货全线下跌，主力月2602合约开盘报334200元/吨跌8140元/吨，9：10分沪 锡主力2602合约报318690跌23650；沪期锡开盘低开低走，盘面空头情绪介入多头获利了结；宏观面， 2025年收官之际，国内外市场同步迎来"压力测试"。国内方面，A股面临限售股解禁、资金集中回笼与 减持计划披露带来的短期流动性及情绪压力。放眼全球，贵金属与基本金属市场出现集体大幅调整，美 股在连创新高后显露疲态，美元指数于低位呈现震荡态势。内外多重因素复杂交织，市场在年末最后时 刻正经历一场密集的多空博弈与流动性考验。锡价在经历此前大幅上调后多头获利了结遭遇抛售，预计 今日将大幅回调。供应端：主要变 ...

热门品种机构观点 光大期货表示，上周业内多条消息引发市场关注：2026年1月1日起，天齐锂业所有产品现货交易结算价 将调整为参考Mysteel的电池级锂盐价格，或者参考广期所的碳酸锂期货主力合约价格；湖南裕能部分 生产线将自2026年1月1日起检修，预计减少产量1.5—3.5万吨；万润新能将对部分产线按照预定计划进 行减产检修预计减少公司磷酸铁锂产量5000吨至2万吨；德方纳米对部分产线按既定安排进行检修，并 对部分设备进行技术改造，使生产设备达到最佳的运行水平，检修时间从2026年1月1日起，预计一个 月。目前来看，定价机制和价格传导方面存在部分问题，实际需要关注价格传导向下游是否顺畅以及强 需求是否能够得到验证。 创元期货表示，短期多空博弈激烈，利空点在于需求即将迎来传统淡季，且终端新能源汽车销量走弱， 一季度排产可能成为博弈重点，利多点在于行业经过连续十几周的去库，中下游碳酸锂库存处于较低水 平，即使去库放缓，但低库存水平对于盘面有较强支撑。短期涨幅过快，交易所多次限仓，需注意风 险，建议等宁德复产落地之后根据基本面进行判断，盘面投机情绪浓厚，波动较大。 三、铁矿石主力合约：下游需求超预期，铁矿石盘中一 ...

12月29日，上周，贵金属市场在假期交投清淡的背景下，上演了一轮令人瞩目的"冲顶"行情。现货黄金 在上周五表现强劲，单日收涨1.17%，盘中最高触及4549美元/盎司，再度刷新历史最高纪录。 本周，随着圣诞节假期结束，市场将迎来元旦假期。在此期间，重点关注于几个核心事件：北京时间周 四凌晨公布的美联储12月货币政策会议纪要，这将为市场理解其内部政策考量提供关键线索；此外，市 场对美联储未来的降息预期以及持续紧张的地缘政治局势，仍将是主导金价短期情绪与方向的关键因 素。 周一（12月29日）亚市早盘，现货黄金高位持稳，开盘后小幅走高，不过随后跳水。毕竟当价格持续脱 离传统定价框架时，市场正逐渐从"趋势狂欢"进入"多空博弈"的敏感阶段。当前金价的走势，已不能简 单用单一因素解释。它是由货币政策、地缘政治、市场结构三大核心引擎驱动，并与估值泡沫风险、流 动性冲击两大潜在风险激烈角力的结果。 另外，本轮行情一个标志性特征是白银的领涨。白银价格因市场规模小、工业需求旺盛而更具投机性， 近期单日涨幅可达10%。这种极致涨幅极大地提振了整个贵金属板块的风险偏好和比价效应，吸引了增 量资金进入，也反过来牵引黄金价格上行。 从 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报： 多空博弈 【期现行情】 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 26 日 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1737 元/吨开盘, 高开高走，日内收跌。最 终收于 1735 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌幅-0.06%，持仓量 193654 手（-2733 手）。主力合约前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多-1516 手，空头-1078 手。其中， 光大期货净多单+963 手、东海期货净多单-781 手；国泰君安净空单+1273 手， 华联期货净空单+493 手。 【行情分析】 2025 年 12 月 26 日，尿素仓单数量 10750 张，环比上个交易日持平。 今日盘面高开高走，日内收跌。工厂挺价难以带动下游备肥积极性，前期 待发消化后，预计降价吸单。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格 范围多在 1640-1710 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端，山东少数工厂报价偏高端。 基本面来看，目前日产 19 万吨，1 月份西南地区气头装置依然有停车减产计 划，但 1 月份也有大量前期停车装置复产，难有新低日产数据。 复合肥工厂本 期开工负荷继续下滑，环比下降 1.62 个百分点，其中主要受华北 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the equity market is showing signs of upward momentum, with the total A-share index rising by 0.60% and trading volume increasing by 467 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2] - The report highlights that the market is attempting to establish new narratives, which historically accompany successful breakthroughs of previous highs at year-end [1][2] - The report suggests that the index is approaching previous highs, with the total A-share index breaking through 6400 points, nearing the highs of October and November [2] Group 2 - The report identifies strong performance in specific sectors, particularly defense, military, and communication industries, which have successfully broken through previous high points, indicating a positive market sentiment towards these sectors [2] - The commercial aerospace sector has led the market with a cumulative increase of 31.12% since November 24, and its trading volume has reached a historical high of 6.05% of total A-share trading volume [3] - The bond market is experiencing a mixed performance, with short-term bonds showing a downward trend while long-term bonds are under pressure due to rising yields influenced by equity market movements [4][5] Group 3 - The report notes that the commodity market has shifted from a broad rally to a more differentiated performance, with precious metals experiencing a decline while industrial metals remain resilient [6] - The report emphasizes that the long-term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact, but short-term volatility may arise due to profit-taking after significant price increases [7] - The report discusses the dynamics in the polysilicon industry, where price increases are being driven by supply-side adjustments, despite ongoing supply-demand imbalances [7]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) is experiencing active trading with a stock price of HKD 412, reflecting a 1.8% increase, indicating a close relationship between its price movements and overall market liquidity and external risk sentiment [1] Technical Analysis - The stock price is currently in a state of indecision, oscillating around short-term moving averages, with the 10-day moving average at HKD 402.7, and the 30-day and 60-day moving averages at HKD 410.72 and HKD 421.80 respectively [2] - Key support is identified at HKD 400, with a further support level at HKD 391 if this is breached. Resistance is noted at HKD 416, with potential to challenge HKD 424 if surpassed [2] Derivative Strategies - In a market with mixed views, warrants and bull/bear certificates provide investors with options to position themselves without significant capital outlay. For instance, on December 17, HKEX shares rose by 2.16%, with related leveraged products showing varying price elasticity [5] - Bull certificates, such as those from Societe Generale and HSBC, exhibited significant price increases of 36% and 38% respectively, while warrants showed more moderate gains of 12% and 9% [5] Product Characteristics - Warrants are influenced by intrinsic value, time value, and implied volatility, with risks primarily associated with time decay. Conversely, bull/bear certificates have a "knockout price" mechanism, making their price movements more linear and potentially more efficient in tracking short-term trends [7] - The choice of issuer is crucial, as it affects product quality and reliability. Issuers are responsible for product creation and cash settlement guarantees, with stronger financial backing indicating higher reliability [18][19] Market Sentiment and Strategy - For investors anticipating a market rebound, higher strike price call options are recommended, while those expecting a downturn may consider put options or bear certificates. Specific products with favorable leverage ratios are highlighted for both bullish and bearish strategies [8][19]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空博弈，煤焦震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：12 月 24 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1746 元/吨，日内录得 0.20%的 涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.87 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 552 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1520 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.18%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1480 元/ 吨，周环比持平。当前，焦炭维持供需两弱格局，基本面未明显改善，不 过下游冬储补库和反内卷预期驱动焦炭期货止跌，叠加 1 月后钢厂存复产 预期，关注后续下游补库和生产节奏。 焦煤：12 月 24 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1132 点，日内上涨 0.62%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 50.05 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-8652 手。现货 市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1140.0 元/吨，周环比持平。目 前，焦煤供应端压力阶段性释放，随着下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期扰 动再现，市场情绪由弱转强，焦煤主力合约低位反 ...