Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - A-share market showed strong performance driven by infrastructure, resources, and liquor sectors, with all three major indices reaching new highs for the year [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.62%, Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.61% [1] - Total market turnover was approximately 1.93 trillion yuan, an increase of 201.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Infrastructure and Machinery Sector - The infrastructure sector, particularly the engineering machinery segment, led the market rally, with significant gains in stocks like Sany Heavy Industry and Zoomlion [2] - The engineering machinery sector saw an overall increase of over 6%, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up [2] - The China Engineering Machinery Industry Association reported a 16.8% year-on-year increase in excavator sales for the first half of 2025, with exports rising by 10.2% [2][3] Group 3: Resource Sector Performance - The coal sector experienced a significant rise, with stocks like Shanxi Coking Coal and Huahua Energy hitting the daily limit up [4] - The main contract for coking coal futures reached 1,048.5 yuan/ton, while the main contract for coke futures was at 1,697 yuan/ton [4] - Market rumors regarding a government notice on coal mine production checks contributed to the bullish sentiment in the coal sector [4] Group 4: Steel Sector Insights - The steel sector also showed strength, with stocks like Fangda Special Steel and Xining Special Steel hitting the daily limit up [6] - The upcoming supply-side reforms in the steel industry are expected to improve the supply-demand balance, benefiting leading companies in the long term [6] Group 5: Liquor Sector Recovery - The liquor sector rebounded, with the overall liquor concept index rising by 1.52%, and 42 out of 51 component stocks showing gains [7] - Leading liquor stocks like Shanxi Fenjiu and Jiangsu Yanghe saw significant increases, driven by attractive dividend yields and positive market sentiment [7] - Despite the recovery, demand pressures remain, and companies are focusing on inventory reduction and market health [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most black commodities are expected to run strongly or fluctuate strongly in the short term due to positive policy news, improved market sentiment, and changes in supply - demand fundamentals [1] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price rose, with the 2510 contract closing at 3307 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan/ton or 2.57%. Spot prices also increased significantly, and the trading volume remained high. Policy news boosted market sentiment, and the coal price limit also had a positive impact. The short - term rebar futures is expected to run strongly [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2509 price rose to 823 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 1.7%. Port spot prices were strong. The global iron ore shipment increased, and the iron water output was at a relatively high level, with port inventory decreasing. The ore price is expected to continue the trend of fluctuating strongly [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 1048.5 yuan/ton, up 42.5 yuan/ton or 4.22%. Spot prices increased. On the supply side, over - capacity mines would be rectified. On the demand side, the steel price rebounded, and the demand for coking coal improved. The short - term coking coal futures is expected to run strongly [1] - **Coke**: The coke 2509 contract closed at 1697.5 yuan/ton, up 59.5 yuan/ton or 5.9%. Spot prices rose. The second round of price increase was implemented, and the cost of coking coal increased. The demand improved due to the rebound of steel prices. The short - term coke futures is expected to run strongly [1] - **Silicomanganese**: The silicomanganese futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 6012 yuan/ton, up 1.76%. Spot prices increased in some regions. The market sentiment was the main driving force, but the supply was increasing and the demand was decreasing. The cost support was enhanced. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5874 yuan/ton, up 3.74%. Spot prices increased in some regions. The market sentiment drove the price up, but the demand was at a low level. The cost was relatively stable. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The report shows the latest values and changes of contract spreads (such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) for various black commodities including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [4] - **Basis**: It also presents the latest values and changes of basis for different contracts of various commodities [4] - **Spot Price**: The latest spot prices and their changes in different regions for each commodity are provided [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Information on profits (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and cross - commodity spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc.) is given [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][9][11][14] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts of various commodities over different time periods [17][18][20][22] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts present the spreads of inter - period contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for different commodities [25][27][29][32][34][35][37] - **Cross - commodity Contract Spread**: Charts show cross - commodity spreads such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc. [40][42][44] - **Rebar Profit**: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [45][49] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and relevant qualifications [51][52]

Group 1 - The core market sentiment has improved significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 3600-point mark, indicating a potential bull market confirmation [1] - The market is currently focused on "anti-involution" and major infrastructure projects, with a notable recovery in the valuation of cyclical stocks [1] - A significant investment project in the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower engineering has commenced, with an investment scale of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, leading to a surge in related sectors such as cement and infrastructure [1] Group 2 - The hydropower project is expected to have a construction period of 10-15 years and its investment scale is five times that of the Three Gorges Dam, indicating substantial demand for bulk commodities [1] - The initial preparation phase will require extensive infrastructure construction, necessitating large quantities of cement, steel, and timber, while the formal construction phase will focus on steel for key structures [1] - The later stages of the project will involve the installation of units and grid connection, requiring copper and aluminum for transmission, suggesting a bullish outlook for infrastructure-related sectors [1]

#观察 3600，看起来还是要“大开放”，“大基建”才行。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#投票 我在A股当前价位左右建仓了100万左右的科技股，你觉得我是： ...

Group 1 - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is set to commence on July 19, 2025, and will take 10 years to complete, representing a significant infrastructure initiative that will drive demand across various sectors including construction machinery, cement materials, steel, and power grid equipment [1] - The project is expected to create substantial demand for engineering vehicles, particularly in high-altitude and low-temperature environments, which have stricter emissions requirements [1] - The estimated demand for engineering vehicles includes 2,000 units of wide-body trucks (90-ton class) and 1,000 units of engineering transport vehicles for earth and stone transfer, with a focus on meeting the National VI B emission standards [1] Group 2 - Kailong High-Tech (300912) is a leading company in the exhaust gas treatment industry, possessing full-chain capabilities in diesel engine exhaust treatment, which will benefit from the significant demand for exhaust treatment solutions due to the hydropower project [1] - Kailong High-Tech's National VI B technology is advanced, with its SCR system and urea injection control technology already certified for heavy trucks and engineering machinery [2] - Currently, Kailong High-Tech has a market capitalization of only 1.8 billion yuan and a low price-to-book ratio of over 3 times, indicating potential for growth as traditional oil vehicle demand rises due to large-scale infrastructure projects [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend with major indices experiencing gains, including the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.62% to close at 3581.86 points and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.84% to 11099.83 points [1][6] - The overall market sentiment was buoyed by active participation in large infrastructure projects, particularly following the announcement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [8][9] Industry Dynamics - The National Press and Publication Administration approved 127 domestic game titles, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22 titles compared to July 2024, although a decrease of 20 titles from June 2025 [24] - The photovoltaic industry saw price increases across the supply chain, with polysilicon prices ranging from 35 to 49 yuan per kilogram, and wafer prices rebounding, indicating a more optimistic market atmosphere [26][27] - The China Urban Rail Transit Association released a development plan for urban rail transit, aiming for a 95% localization rate of core technologies by 2030, with significant advancements expected in high-value patents [29][30] Company Updates - Renfu Pharmaceutical received a drug registration certificate for its transdermal patch for treating mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease, with projected sales of approximately 2.6 million yuan in 2024 [31] - Victory Technology is planning to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its capital strength and competitiveness, driven by strong demand in the AI PCB sector [33] - Sains announced a stock incentive plan, proposing to grant up to 5.3 million restricted shares, with performance targets set for revenue growth of at least 30% over the next three years [36]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is poised for recovery due to significant infrastructure projects, particularly the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, which has a total investment exceeding 1.2 trillion yuan and is expected to consume over 200,000 tons of steel during its construction [4][7][9]. Group 1: Project Impact on Steel Demand - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project will require substantial steel, with an estimated total steel consumption of over 200,000 tons, which is manageable within the context of China's projected steel production of 1.005 billion tons in 2024 [7][9]. - The project is expected to have a long construction period of 10 years, meaning the steel demand will be spread out, minimizing its impact on the overall steel market [9]. Group 2: Regional Steel Supply Dynamics - Tibet lacks local steel production, necessitating long-distance transportation of steel from provinces such as Sichuan and Chongqing [10]. - Chongqing Iron and Steel, located closest to Tibet, has a production capacity of 10 million tons per year and is well-positioned to supply the project due to its geographical advantage [13]. Group 3: Industry Recovery Signals - The steel industry is showing signs of recovery, with companies like Chongqing Iron and Steel expecting a significant reduction in losses for the first half of 2025, indicating a broader trend of financial improvement across the sector [14][16]. - The overall steel production in China has seen mixed results, with pig iron production at 435 million tons (down 0.8%) and crude steel production at 515 million tons (down 3%), while steel product output increased by 4.6% to 734 million tons [17]. Group 4: Cost Factors and Market Conditions - The decline in coal prices has led to a significant reduction in procurement costs for steel companies, with some reporting cost savings exceeding 60 yuan per ton [18][22]. - Despite low prices for rebar and hot-rolled steel, the steel industry's fundamentals are improving primarily due to lower input costs rather than a surge in downstream demand [20][22]. Group 5: Policy and Market Response - The Chinese government is initiating a new round of supply-side reforms aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including steel, which is expected to further support the sector [22]. - The announcement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River project has spurred market interest, leading to rapid stock price increases for related steel companies, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the sector [22].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong rebound today, with all three major indices reaching new highs for the year [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.62%, marking its fifth consecutive day of gains, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.84% and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.61% [2] - Total market turnover was approximately 1.93 trillion yuan, an increase of 201.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - The infrastructure construction sector remains hot, with significant gains in engineering machinery, civil explosives, and coal mining and processing sectors [4] - Multiple stocks in the "Chinese state-owned enterprises" category saw a surge, with companies like China Energy Engineering, China Railway Industry, and China Tungsten High-Tech hitting the daily limit [4] Engineering Machinery Sector - The engineering machinery sector led the market, with several stocks hitting the daily limit, including Wuxin Tunnel Equipment, Iron Tuo Machinery, and Hengli Drilling Tools [10] - Notable performers included: - Wuxin Tunnel Equipment: +29.99%, 5-day increase of 95.18% [11] - Iron Tuo Machinery: +29.99%, 5-day increase of 68.98% [11] - Hengli Aluminum: +29.97%, 5-day increase of 67.05% [11] - The China Construction Machinery Industry Association reported that excavator sales reached 120,520 units in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, with exports up by 10.2% [12] - The demand for engineering machinery is expected to continue to recover, supported by positive macro policies and increased infrastructure investment [12] Coal Sector - The coal sector saw significant gains in the afternoon, with stocks like Shanxi Coking Coal, Haohua Energy, and Shanmei International hitting the daily limit [14] - Key performers included: - Shanxi Coking Coal: +10.07%, 5-day increase of 17.08% [15] - Haohua Energy: +10.06%, 5-day increase of 14.04% [15] - Shanmei International: +10.04%, 5-day increase of 13.77% [15] - The "double焦" futures contracts also surged, with coking coal futures reaching 1,048.5 yuan/ton and coke futures at 1,697 yuan/ton [16] - Expectations for supportive policies in the coal industry are increasing, which may help reverse the sector's challenges [17]

今日A股市场全天震荡走高， 三大指数盘中均创年内新高 。沪深两市全天成交额1.89万亿，较上个 交易日放量1931亿。 板块方面，超级水电、工程机械、煤炭、水泥等板块涨幅居前，智谱AI、元件、软件开发、游戏等 板块跌幅居前。 截至收盘，沪指涨0.62%，深成指涨0.84%，创业板指涨0.61%。 盘面上，市场热点集中在大基建方向，个股跌多涨少， 全市场超2700只个股下跌，连续两日逾百股 涨停。 从板块来看，超级水电概念股持续爆发，中国电建等多股涨停。钢铁、煤炭、水泥等反内卷 方向集体走强，潞安环能等多股涨停。下跌方面，算力方向展开调整，优刻得等跌超5%。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market shows a positive trend with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.72% to close at 3559.79 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.86% to 11007.49 points [1][6] - The overall market sentiment is bullish, particularly in the infrastructure sector, which has seen significant gains [8] Economic Indicators - In June, the total electricity consumption in China increased by 5.4% year-on-year, reaching 867 billion kWh, with notable growth in residential electricity usage at 10.8% [13][22] - The online retail sales in China grew by 8.5% in the first half of the year, driven by quality goods and digital service consumption [17][18] Company Updates - Baiotai (688177.SH) received approval for clinical trials of its BAT4406F injection for specific kidney diseases, indicating progress in its product pipeline [24][25] - Xinhua Medical (600587.SH) announced that its subsidiary received regulatory approval for a new single-use laparoscopic puncture device, enhancing its product offerings in the medical device sector [26][27] - Tianci Materials (002709.SZ) signed a procurement agreement with Chuangneng New Energy to supply at least 550,000 tons of electrolyte products, which is expected to positively impact its financial performance from 2025 to 2030 [28][29] Industry Dynamics - The construction materials, construction decoration, and steel industries have shown strong performance, while sectors like computing and banking have faced declines [7][8] - The electricity demand forecast for 2025 anticipates a 5% increase, driven by growth in all sectors, particularly in new infrastructure [23]