Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective pullback on July 25, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.23%. However, the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index saw an increase of over 2% in the afternoon session [1]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3593.66, down by 12.07 points or 0.33% [2]. - The Shenzhen Component closed at 11168.14, down by 24.92 points or 0.22% [2]. - The ChiNext Index closed at 2340.06, down by 5.31 points or 0.23% [2]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.79 trillion, a decrease of 574 billion compared to the previous trading day [2]. Sector Performance - The Hainan Free Trade Zone sector experienced a pullback, while major infrastructure, diversified finance, liquor, and coal sectors weakened [4]. - The semiconductor sector showed strength in the afternoon, with stocks like Aishi Chuang hitting the daily limit, and companies such as Cambrian, Saiwei Microelectronics, and Aojie Technology rising over 10% [5]. - Water conservancy concept stocks collectively adjusted, with several stocks like Deep Water Planning Institute and Huaxin Cement hitting the daily limit down [6]. Capital Flow - Main capital saw a net inflow into sectors such as semiconductors, media, and biomedicine, while there was a net outflow from shipbuilding and paper printing sectors [8]. - Specific stocks with net inflows included Cambrian (8.27 billion), Zhangjiang Hi-Tech (6.88 billion), and Haiguang Information (5.22 billion) [9]. - Stocks facing net outflows included China Power Construction (24.24 billion), Northern Rare Earth (18.83 billion), and Tibet Tianlu (16.21 billion) [10]. Institutional Perspectives - Shenwan Hongyuan noted that the market's upward trend remains intact without any changes [12]. - Guojin Securities highlighted that recent index movements showed a clear rise in both price and volume, with a focus on individual stocks rather than indices [12]. - Dexun Securities pointed out that while the A-share index has been steadily rising, it faces significant technical resistance above 3600 points, indicating potential short-term volatility [13].

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber futures market is showing a strong performance, with prices increasing and various factors influencing supply and demand dynamics [1] Price Movement - As of July 25, the main contract for natural rubber is priced at 15,625.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3.20% increase [1] - The Shanghai market's 2023 SCRWF mainstream transaction price ranges from 15,350 to 15,400 CNY/ton, up by 400 CNY/ton from the previous day [1] Supply Dynamics - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a total of 186,680 tons of natural rubber warehouse receipts as of July 24, a decrease of 20 tons from the previous week [1] - Thailand's natural rubber exports for the first half of 2025 totaled 1.386 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2% [1] - Specific export figures include: standard rubber at 804,000 tons (down 12% year-on-year), sheet rubber at 196,000 tons (up 26%), and latex at 377,000 tons (up 12%) [1] Market Sentiment - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the upward momentum in the rubber market is slightly weakening, with a diminishing bullish sentiment and increased resistance from downstream buyers towards high-priced sources [1] - Hualian Futures notes that large-scale infrastructure projects are beneficial for the demand of all-steel tires, with macroeconomic expectations supporting rubber prices [1] Demand Factors - Domestic real estate sector struggles are negatively impacting rubber demand, with a deepening year-on-year decline in real estate development investment from January to June [1] - However, demand from large engineering projects is improving heavy truck sales, which saw a year-on-year increase of approximately 29% in June [1] - The operating rate for all-steel tires is at a relatively low level, while the operating rate for semi-steel tires has recently rebounded significantly [1] Operational Recommendations - The recommendation is to reduce long positions while maintaining holdings, with the support level for RU09 raised to around 14,500 CNY [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - Major indices experienced gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.53% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 3.35% over the past five trading days [2] - The trading volume significantly increased, with a total of 8.87 trillion yuan traded, averaging 1.77 trillion yuan per day, which is an increase of 221.8 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [2] - The banking and telecommunications sectors were the only ones to decline, while coal, steel, and construction materials sectors saw the highest gains [2] Group 2: Policy Developments - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project was announced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan for the construction of five hydropower stations [2] - The State Council released the "Rural Road Regulations," emphasizing the need for upgrading rural roads, with an estimated 117.1 billion yuan required for the upgrade of approximately 125,000 kilometers of rural roads [2] - Recent infrastructure investments are expected to further stimulate economic growth, supported by ongoing "anti-involution" policies [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The market is expected to benefit from the deployment of major hydropower and infrastructure projects, with supply-side expectations and demand-side policies driving index growth [3] - Key investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as electric equipment, resource products, and construction materials, driven by "anti-involution" and infrastructure stability [3] - The TMT sector, pharmaceuticals, and defense industries are also highlighted as areas with potential investment opportunities due to AI trends and international expansion [3] Group 4: Fund Analysis - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total number of equity funds reached 7,025, with a total scale of 77,162.93 billion yuan, an increase of 2,660.60 billion yuan from the previous quarter [5] - The average equity allocation for mixed equity funds decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 87.56%, while the weighted average allocation fell by 0.10 percentage points to 88.36% [5] - Significant increases in allocation were observed in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and ChiNext, while the allocation to the main board decreased [6] Group 5: Sector Allocation - The sectors with increased allocation include banking, telecommunications, non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, and defense, while food and beverage, automotive, and electrical equipment sectors saw decreased allocation [6] - The top five stocks held by active equity funds include Ningde Times, Kweichow Moutai, Tencent Holdings, China Merchants Bank, and Ping An Insurance, with total holdings of 1,427 billion yuan for Ningde Times [6][7]

Group 1 - Domestic steel prices have been rising continuously in recent trading days under the expectation of "anti-involution" [1] - As of July 24, the weekly rebar production increased by 29,000 tons to 2.1196 million tons, while year-on-year it decreased by 47,300 tons [1] - Steel inventory data shows a slight increase in social inventory by 28,100 tons to 3.7297 million tons, but a year-on-year decrease of 1.9362 million tons [1] Group 2 - The average daily transaction volume of construction materials nationwide from Monday to Wednesday was 114,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 22.63% [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce a growth plan for key industries, including steel, to optimize supply and eliminate outdated production capacity [2] - The establishment of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project by China Yajiang Group, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to enhance market sentiment [2]

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - A-share market showed strong performance driven by infrastructure, resources, and liquor sectors, with all three major indices reaching new highs for the year [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.62%, Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.61% [1] - Total market turnover was approximately 1.93 trillion yuan, an increase of 201.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Infrastructure and Machinery Sector - The infrastructure sector, particularly the engineering machinery segment, led the market rally, with significant gains in stocks like Sany Heavy Industry and Zoomlion [2] - The engineering machinery sector saw an overall increase of over 6%, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up [2] - The China Engineering Machinery Industry Association reported a 16.8% year-on-year increase in excavator sales for the first half of 2025, with exports rising by 10.2% [2][3] Group 3: Resource Sector Performance - The coal sector experienced a significant rise, with stocks like Shanxi Coking Coal and Huahua Energy hitting the daily limit up [4] - The main contract for coking coal futures reached 1,048.5 yuan/ton, while the main contract for coke futures was at 1,697 yuan/ton [4] - Market rumors regarding a government notice on coal mine production checks contributed to the bullish sentiment in the coal sector [4] Group 4: Steel Sector Insights - The steel sector also showed strength, with stocks like Fangda Special Steel and Xining Special Steel hitting the daily limit up [6] - The upcoming supply-side reforms in the steel industry are expected to improve the supply-demand balance, benefiting leading companies in the long term [6] Group 5: Liquor Sector Recovery - The liquor sector rebounded, with the overall liquor concept index rising by 1.52%, and 42 out of 51 component stocks showing gains [7] - Leading liquor stocks like Shanxi Fenjiu and Jiangsu Yanghe saw significant increases, driven by attractive dividend yields and positive market sentiment [7] - Despite the recovery, demand pressures remain, and companies are focusing on inventory reduction and market health [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most black commodities are expected to run strongly or fluctuate strongly in the short term due to positive policy news, improved market sentiment, and changes in supply - demand fundamentals [1] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price rose, with the 2510 contract closing at 3307 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan/ton or 2.57%. Spot prices also increased significantly, and the trading volume remained high. Policy news boosted market sentiment, and the coal price limit also had a positive impact. The short - term rebar futures is expected to run strongly [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2509 price rose to 823 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 1.7%. Port spot prices were strong. The global iron ore shipment increased, and the iron water output was at a relatively high level, with port inventory decreasing. The ore price is expected to continue the trend of fluctuating strongly [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 1048.5 yuan/ton, up 42.5 yuan/ton or 4.22%. Spot prices increased. On the supply side, over - capacity mines would be rectified. On the demand side, the steel price rebounded, and the demand for coking coal improved. The short - term coking coal futures is expected to run strongly [1] - **Coke**: The coke 2509 contract closed at 1697.5 yuan/ton, up 59.5 yuan/ton or 5.9%. Spot prices rose. The second round of price increase was implemented, and the cost of coking coal increased. The demand improved due to the rebound of steel prices. The short - term coke futures is expected to run strongly [1] - **Silicomanganese**: The silicomanganese futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 6012 yuan/ton, up 1.76%. Spot prices increased in some regions. The market sentiment was the main driving force, but the supply was increasing and the demand was decreasing. The cost support was enhanced. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5874 yuan/ton, up 3.74%. Spot prices increased in some regions. The market sentiment drove the price up, but the demand was at a low level. The cost was relatively stable. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The report shows the latest values and changes of contract spreads (such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) for various black commodities including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [4] - **Basis**: It also presents the latest values and changes of basis for different contracts of various commodities [4] - **Spot Price**: The latest spot prices and their changes in different regions for each commodity are provided [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Information on profits (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and cross - commodity spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc.) is given [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][9][11][14] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts of various commodities over different time periods [17][18][20][22] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts present the spreads of inter - period contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for different commodities [25][27][29][32][34][35][37] - **Cross - commodity Contract Spread**: Charts show cross - commodity spreads such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc. [40][42][44] - **Rebar Profit**: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [45][49] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and relevant qualifications [51][52]

Group 1 - The core market sentiment has improved significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 3600-point mark, indicating a potential bull market confirmation [1] - The market is currently focused on "anti-involution" and major infrastructure projects, with a notable recovery in the valuation of cyclical stocks [1] - A significant investment project in the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower engineering has commenced, with an investment scale of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, leading to a surge in related sectors such as cement and infrastructure [1] Group 2 - The hydropower project is expected to have a construction period of 10-15 years and its investment scale is five times that of the Three Gorges Dam, indicating substantial demand for bulk commodities [1] - The initial preparation phase will require extensive infrastructure construction, necessitating large quantities of cement, steel, and timber, while the formal construction phase will focus on steel for key structures [1] - The later stages of the project will involve the installation of units and grid connection, requiring copper and aluminum for transmission, suggesting a bullish outlook for infrastructure-related sectors [1]

#观察 3600，看起来还是要“大开放”，“大基建”才行。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#投票 我在A股当前价位左右建仓了100万左右的科技股，你觉得我是： ...

Group 1 - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is set to commence on July 19, 2025, and will take 10 years to complete, representing a significant infrastructure initiative that will drive demand across various sectors including construction machinery, cement materials, steel, and power grid equipment [1] - The project is expected to create substantial demand for engineering vehicles, particularly in high-altitude and low-temperature environments, which have stricter emissions requirements [1] - The estimated demand for engineering vehicles includes 2,000 units of wide-body trucks (90-ton class) and 1,000 units of engineering transport vehicles for earth and stone transfer, with a focus on meeting the National VI B emission standards [1] Group 2 - Kailong High-Tech (300912) is a leading company in the exhaust gas treatment industry, possessing full-chain capabilities in diesel engine exhaust treatment, which will benefit from the significant demand for exhaust treatment solutions due to the hydropower project [1] - Kailong High-Tech's National VI B technology is advanced, with its SCR system and urea injection control technology already certified for heavy trucks and engineering machinery [2] - Currently, Kailong High-Tech has a market capitalization of only 1.8 billion yuan and a low price-to-book ratio of over 3 times, indicating potential for growth as traditional oil vehicle demand rises due to large-scale infrastructure projects [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend with major indices experiencing gains, including the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.62% to close at 3581.86 points and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.84% to 11099.83 points [1][6] - The overall market sentiment was buoyed by active participation in large infrastructure projects, particularly following the announcement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [8][9] Industry Dynamics - The National Press and Publication Administration approved 127 domestic game titles, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22 titles compared to July 2024, although a decrease of 20 titles from June 2025 [24] - The photovoltaic industry saw price increases across the supply chain, with polysilicon prices ranging from 35 to 49 yuan per kilogram, and wafer prices rebounding, indicating a more optimistic market atmosphere [26][27] - The China Urban Rail Transit Association released a development plan for urban rail transit, aiming for a 95% localization rate of core technologies by 2030, with significant advancements expected in high-value patents [29][30] Company Updates - Renfu Pharmaceutical received a drug registration certificate for its transdermal patch for treating mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease, with projected sales of approximately 2.6 million yuan in 2024 [31] - Victory Technology is planning to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its capital strength and competitiveness, driven by strong demand in the AI PCB sector [33] - Sains announced a stock incentive plan, proposing to grant up to 5.3 million restricted shares, with performance targets set for revenue growth of at least 30% over the next three years [36]