Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, domestic demand for urea is weak while exports provide support, showing an oscillating trend. In the short term, it will mainly move in an oscillating manner without obvious driving forces. In the short term, due to continuously weak spot transactions, it may face pressure and oscillate [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract (09 contract) was 1,764 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,761 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the trading volume was 181,747 lots, an increase of 9,486 lots; the open interest was 197,992 lots, an increase of 206 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 2,630 tons, a decrease of 15 tons; the trading volume was 639,981 ten thousand yuan, an increase of 28,236 ten thousand yuan. The basis in Shandong region was 56 yuan, down 31 yuan; the difference between Fengxi and the futures price was -64 yuan, down 11 yuan; the difference between Dongguang and the futures price was 26 yuan, down 1 yuan. The spread between UR09 and UR01 was 33 yuan, down 6 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of some urea plants remained unchanged, while Shanxi Fengxi decreased by 20 yuan to 1,700 yuan/ton, and Hebei Dongguang decreased by 10 yuan to 1,790 yuan/ton. The trading prices of traders in Shandong region decreased by 40 yuan to 1,820 yuan/ton, while those in Shanxi region remained unchanged at 1,720 yuan/ton. The operating rate was 85.98%, unchanged, and the daily output was 199,060 tons, unchanged [1] Industry News - On July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 967,700 tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%. During this period, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline, and some urea plants continued to execute previous export orders. Domestic industrial demand was weak, and local agricultural demand increased incrementally. The shipment of urea plants varied significantly, and inventory changes were different among regions [2] - In the short term, the domestic demand is weak, and exports provide support, showing an oscillating trend. In the short term, due to continuously weak spot transactions, it may face pressure and oscillate. In early July, the fundamentals of urea are expected to improve marginally. There will be concentrated maintenance on the supply side, with a decline in the operating rate and daily output. On the demand side, traders are gradually picking up goods for export, and inventory may not accumulate significantly in the short term. The pressure of factories' pending orders and inventory is not large, and spot quotes are slightly rising. Additional export quotas may gradually be implemented, increasing the export volume. However, domestic agricultural demand is coming to an end, and fundamental pressure is gradually increasing, significantly suppressing the upward price space [2][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that demand was weak and ex - factory prices fell collectively. This week's view is that demand still lacks support and ex - factory prices are running weakly. Market sentiment remains weak, and the ex - factory quotes of urea spot in mainstream areas are stable with a downward trend [4]. - The daily output remains above 200,000 tons, at the highest level in the same period. The domestic supply is large, the demand is declining, and the urea enterprises are in the inventory accumulation stage again. The ex - factory price of urea has fallen to around 1,770 - 1,780 yuan/ton, and the market is pessimistic about the future, remaining weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to the results of next week's Indian tender [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overview - Market sentiment is weak, and the ex - factory quotes of urea in Shandong, Henan, and surrounding areas of the delivery area are expected to decline. The export details have been announced, but the domestic supply is large, and the overall demand is declining [4]. 2. Core Data Changes - Supply: In the 22nd week of 2025 (20250529 - 0604), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 92.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86%; that of gas - based urea was 78.15%, a week - on - week increase of 1.04%. The capacity utilization rate of urea in Shandong was 85.27%, a week - on - week increase of 2.21% [5]. - Demand: In the 23rd week of 2025 (20250529 - 0605), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 64.31%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points from last week; the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer dropped to 37.13%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points from last week. The arrival volume of urea in the Northeast was 80,000 tons, a decrease of 6.67% from last week. As of June 6, 2025, the urea demand of Linyi compound fertilizer sample production enterprises was 1,180 tons, a week - on - week increase of 68.57%. As of June 4, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.47 days, a decrease of 0.41 days from the previous period [5]. - Inventory: As of June 4, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0354 million tons, an increase of 54,800 tons from last week. The sample inventory of urea ports was 205,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Valuation: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was weakly stable, the price of Yulin pulverized coal fell, and the urea spot price fell. The profit of fixed - bed production was 140 yuan/ton, that of coal - water slurry production was 340 yuan/ton, and that of entrained - flow bed production was 570 yuan/ton. The futures fell sharply, the basis was 50 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread converged to 50 yuan/ton [5].

Report Summary 1. Futures Market - The UR2509 contract had a high of 1904, a low of 1725, and closed at 1882 on May 8, with a weekly increase of 7.05% [5] 2. Regional Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices varied by region For example, Shandong's (cash - on - delivery ex - factory) price closed at 1805, down 0.25% week - on - week; Guangxi's closed at 1980, up 1.74% week - on - week; and the national average closed at 1829, down 0.89% week - on - week [7] 3. International Market - For small - particle urea, FOB prices in the Black Sea and Baltic increased by 1.13% and 1.14% respectively, while FOB China decreased by 2.43% CFR Brazil increased by 3.27% [8] - For large - particle urea, FOB Middle East net price increased by 6.62%, and FOB Middle East (US source net reverse calculation) increased by 4.89% [8] - Other international prices also had different changes, such as FOB Iran down 1.32% and Venezuela/Trinidad up 4.05% [9] 4. Inventory - Yantai port inventory was 5.5 on May 8, up 3.77% from April 24 and down 36.05% year - on - year - Total port urea inventory was 12.3, up 6.96% from April 24 and down 38.81% year - on - year - Domestic enterprise inventory was 95.25, down 6.80% from April 24 and up 133.46% year - on - year [10]