进入2026年，全球资本市场正在上演一出颇具讽刺意味的反转剧。在过去长达二十年的时间里，"新兴市场"这个词在投资圈里几乎成了"永远 的明日之星"的代名词。人们总是预言它们将要崛起，却一次次看着它们在发达经济体的阴影下徘徊。投资者们原本指望从中等收入国家的追 赶效应中获得超额回报，现实却往往是短暂的繁荣之后紧接着漫长的停滞。 然而，在MSCI新兴市场指数在2025年以34%的惊人涨幅碾压发达市场的21%，并在2026年开年短短一个月内再涨9%之后，即便是最顽固的怀 疑论者也不得不重新审视这片曾经的荒原。 在被华尔街冷落了整整二十年后，新兴市场似乎终于迎来了属于自己的高光时刻。 IMF此前曾预测，2026年，新兴市场的产出增长将比发达经济体高出2.4个百分点。这种实打实的增长差，配合上比美国高收益债券更具吸引 力的本币债券回报率，共同构成了新兴市场最坚实的护城河。从这个意义上讲，虽然如今投资新兴市场依然存在风险，但这种风险已经不再是 当年的豪赌了，而更像是一种基于基本面的理性配置。 在资本的眼中，除了成长性，性价比永远是王道。而这也正是当下新兴市场最犀利的武器，它够便宜。 从墨西哥的比索到马来西亚的林吉特，一众货 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 38 HKD [3][6]. Core Insights - The company, Leshu Shi (2698.HK), is a leading multinational hygiene products company focused on emerging markets such as Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia, specializing in baby diapers, pull-ups, sanitary napkins, and wet wipes [1][2]. - Revenue for the first four months of 2024 and 2025 was 320 million and 160 million USD, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 10.5% and 15.5%, while net profit was 95 million and 31 million USD, reflecting growth of 47.0% and 8.4% [1]. - The company is expected to see net profits of 106 million, 129 million, and 147 million USD for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.18, 0.21, and 0.24 USD [1][3]. Company Overview - Leshu Shi has established a broad sales network across over 30 countries in Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia, with 18 sales branches and over 2,800 wholesalers, distributors, supermarkets, and other retailers [2][17]. - The company has a strong local production presence in Africa with 8 factories, making it the largest manufacturer of hygiene products in the region [2][20]. Business Growth Factors - Future growth is anticipated from external factors such as demographic growth in emerging markets, ongoing consumption upgrades, and increased penetration of hygiene products [3][12]. - Internal growth factors include localized production creating a competitive moat, extensive sales channel coverage, continuous product category expansion, and replicating successful market experiences in other emerging markets [3][12]. Financial and Valuation Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 541 million, 627 million, and 711 million USD, with growth rates of 19.1%, 15.9%, and 13.4% respectively [4]. - The net profit margins are expected to remain stable, with net profit margins of 19.6%, 20.5%, and 20.7% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4]. - The company is valued at a 23x PE ratio for 2026, corresponding to a stock price of 38 HKD [3][4]. Market Characteristics - Emerging markets, particularly Africa, are characterized by strong economic growth, a young population driving consumption upgrades, and high import demand due to lower local industrialization [46][47]. - The African market is expected to see significant growth in the hygiene products sector, with the baby diaper market projected to grow from 2.037 billion USD in 2020 to 2.590 billion USD by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 6.2% [49][53].

德梅洛表示："沃什近期主张或助其获得提名——核心聚焦降低政策利率与缩减美联储资产负债表。政 策利率持续走低将持续支撑新兴市场股票与货币。" 经济数据方面，土耳其1月消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨4.8%，超市场预期;年通胀率从去年12月的 30.9%微降至30.7%。数据发布后土耳其里拉基本持平，但银行股与政府债券下跌，因市场预期该央行 将谨慎推进降息。 MSCI新兴市场货币指数亦上扬，印度卢比创三年多来最大涨幅，此前美国宣布将大幅削减对印度商品 关税。韩国韩元走强，因韩国监管部门表示"正密切监控市场";南非兰特同样走高，受益于金价反弹。 新兴市场正从美国总统唐纳德·特朗普提名凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)担任下一任美联储主席所引发的市场 震荡中恢复。该提名曾推升美元，因市场认为沃什作为"鹰派候选人"，可能优先控制通胀而非降息。 Gamma资产管理公司(Gama Asset Management)全球宏观投资组合经理拉杰夫·德梅洛(Rajeev De Mello)认 为沃什的提名是积极信号。 智通财经APP获悉，周二，新兴市场股票与货币反弹，结束了连续三日的下跌态势，因美元走弱及贵金 属市场波动性消退 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Softcare, for the first time [6]. Core Insights - Softcare is a multinational hygiene products company focused on emerging markets, particularly in Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia. It has established itself as a leader in the African baby diaper and sanitary napkin markets, holding market shares of 20.3% and 15.6% respectively as of 2024 [6][13]. - The company has experienced rapid revenue and profit growth due to the establishment of local production facilities in Africa, with projected revenues of $454 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [5][17]. - The African market is expected to see significant growth in the hygiene products sector, driven by a young population, increasing urbanization, and rising disposable incomes [19][28]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Softcare launched its first product, Softcare baby diapers, in Ghana in 2009 and has since expanded its brand portfolio to include Maya, Veesper, Cuettie, and Clincleer, catering to various consumer segments [10][13]. - The company has established eight production facilities across different African countries, enhancing its manufacturing capabilities and supply chain efficiency [10][41]. Market Potential - The African economy is projected to grow at a rate of 4.1% in 2025, which is higher than the global average, providing a favorable environment for the growth of hygiene products [19]. - The young population in Africa, with over 60% under the age of 30, and a birth rate of approximately 3.2% from 2020 to 2024, is expected to drive demand for baby products [23][24]. Competitive Advantages - Softcare has a well-defined brand matrix and has received multiple awards, enhancing its brand recognition and consumer trust [36][37]. - The company operates a robust distribution network with over 2,800 wholesalers, distributors, and retailers across Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia, ensuring extensive market reach [45][46]. - The local production strategy allows Softcare to reduce costs and improve product quality, with a significant increase in gross margins for its products from 2022 to 2024 [43][41]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of $534 million in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% from 2025 to 2027 [5][6]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is $95 million, with a significant increase in profitability expected in the coming years [5][17].

美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什领导美联储，摩根士丹利策略师指出，这一变动并不意味着新兴市场行 情走向终结。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 摩根士丹利策略师James Lord、Simon Waever等人在报告中写道，"新兴市场牛市可能依然完好"，投资 者仍应逢低买入新兴市场本地资产，背后的支撑因素在于其基本面依然稳健，货币政策继续发挥压舱石 作用。他们认为，上周后期的价格波动"可能是由于投资者措手不及，在外汇市场仓位错误而被放大"， 并强调"逢低买入是明智之举，配置新兴市场本地资产的理由比美联储人事变动的影响更为充分"。 来源：市场资讯 摩根士丹利预计美联储将于6月恢复降息。哥伦比亚上周五加息，被其视作新兴市场央行采取支持本币 行动的最新例证。 ...

2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，三大新兴市场带动服务质变，家电服务业迎来新一轮发展机遇。中 国家用电器服务维修协会（简称"中服协"）日前发布的《2026年家电服务业及新兴市场发展趋势预测》 指出，全屋智能系统、AI显示和服务机器人三大新兴市场将成为2026年家电产业核心增长引擎，推动 家电市场从重产品向重场景服务裂变。 （来源：中华工商时报） 中服协研究员王倩表示，2026年家电市场将呈现"政策托底、结构升级、出海加速、渠道变革"的特征， 进入"弱复苏+结构成长"的新周期。预计外销表现持续优于内销，产品结构升级与新赛道布局成为增长 的核心驱动力。 转自：中华工商时报 当下，我国服务业经济实现较快增长，现代服务业引领作用凸显，发展动能持续向新向好，对国民经济 增长的贡献稳步增强，服务业优质高效发展取得积极成效，为经济社会发展注入动力。2025年，服务业 对国民经济增长的贡献率达61.4%，增加值占国内生产总值比重提升至57.7%，较上年提高0.9个百分 点，持续稳固国民经济增长主动力地位，为家电等重点服务领域发展筑牢坚实根基。 步入"弱复苏+结构成长"新周期 王倩援引国家统计局数据分析称，2025年我国家 ...

投资者上周继续涌入新兴市场股票和债券交易所交易基金（ETF）。这是此类ETF连续第15周录得资金 流入。 彭博汇编的数据显示，截至1月30日当周，投资于多个新兴市场国家或特定国家的美国上市新兴市场 ETF合计录得资金流入65亿美元，而前一周流入68.5亿美元。今年迄今为止，资金流入总额为249亿美 元 股票ETF流入60.6亿美元。 债券ETF流入4.388亿美元。 总资产从4745亿美元增至4847亿美元。 MSCI新兴市场指数上周涨1.8%，至1，528.09点。 责任编辑：李桐 投资者上周继续涌入新兴市场股票和债券交易所交易基金（ETF）。这是此类ETF连续第15周录得资金 流入。 彭博汇编的数据显示，截至1月30日当周，投资于多个新兴市场国家或特定国家的美国上市新兴市场 ETF合计录得资金流入65亿美元，而前一周流入68.5亿美元。今年迄今为止，资金流入总额为249亿美 元 股票ETF流入60.6亿美元。 债券ETF流入4.388亿美元。 总资产从4745亿美元增至4847亿美元。 MSCI新兴市场指数上周涨1.8%，至1，528.09点。 责任编辑：李桐 ...

新兴市场成增长新引擎 市场布局持续优化 商报讯(记者汤佳烨通讯员周敏伟)钱江海关统计数据显示，2025年杭州(含省级公司)外贸进出口总值达 9069.5亿元，同比增长6.1%，占全省外贸进出口总值的16.4%。其中出口6467.0亿元、增长8.7%，增幅 分别领先全国、全省2.6和1.5个百分点，进口2602.5亿元、微增0.2%，外贸发展稳中有进、质效双升。 杭州出口排名跃居全国城市第八位，较上年上升一位，占全国出口份额2.4%，在全省11地市中出口增 速位列第四，在复杂的国际经贸环境下，持续彰显外贸发展的韧性与活力。 面向拉美、中东、非洲等新兴市场，杭州出口实现全面增长，且增速均高于全省平均水平，成为拉动外 贸增长的重要新引擎。其中，对拉美出口614.6亿元、增长11.2%，对中东出口507.3亿元、增长15.1%， 对非洲出口339.2亿元、增长17.9%，新兴市场的市场份额与贡献度持续提升。同时，杭州紧抓开放合作 机遇，对金砖成员国及伙伴国出口1777.3亿元、增长9.0%，对共建"一带一路"国家出口3207.2亿元、增 长14.1%，以更高水平开放融入全球经贸格局。 2025年，杭州外贸贸易伙伴结构 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 伊斯坦布尔100指数有望创下29年来最佳的1月表现 音频由扣子空间生成 受益于新兴市场乐观情绪蔓延及自身估值优势，外国投资者重新涌入土耳其股市，推动该国股市有望创下1997年以来的最佳1月表现。 以美元计价，伊斯坦布尔100指数1月至今已上涨19%，为1997年以来同期最佳表现。即便经历本轮上涨，以预期市盈率衡量，土耳其股市相较于其他 新兴市场股票仍存在显著估值折让。 土耳其股市的交易价格较新兴市场同类股票低约70% 去年，土耳其总统雷杰普・塔伊普・埃尔多安（Recep Tayyip Erdogan）对政治对手的打压令投资者恐慌，导致土耳其资产在新兴市场期待已久的反 弹行情中错失良机。如今，在美元走弱以及投资者寻求分散美国资产配置的推动下，土耳其股市正逐步缩小与其他新兴市场的差距。 阿塔投资管理公司首席执行官巴图汉・奥兹沙欣（Batuhan Ozsahin）表示："在新兴市场需求旺盛的背景下，土耳其股市正迎头赶上，美元贬值交易 仍在强劲持续。" 土耳其央行数据显示，自去年12月初至今年1月16日，该国股市已吸引13.6亿美元的外资流入。贝莱德前沿市场投资信托基金目前将土耳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities initiates coverage on Leshu Shi (02698) with a "strong buy" investment rating, highlighting the company's robust growth and profitability driven by localized production and distribution in emerging markets, particularly Africa [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company is a leading cross-border hygiene product platform focused on emerging markets, primarily selling baby diapers and sanitary napkins, with the highest sales in Africa [1] - The founders maintain concentrated control, and the core management team possesses extensive experience in emerging markets and fast-moving consumer goods [1] - The company has transitioned from a trading model to localized supply, manufacturing, and deep distribution, establishing a competitive advantage in production, supply, and sales [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated stable high revenue growth, with projected revenues of $320 million, $411 million, and $454 million for 2022-2024, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 28.59% and 10.46% [2] - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise significantly, with growth rates of 251.71% and 51.00% for 2023 and 2024, respectively [2] - The product structure is centered on baby diapers, which accounted for 71.8% of revenue in early 2025, while sanitary napkins and training pants are also growing [2] Group 3: Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin is projected to increase from 23.0% in 2022 to 35.2% in 2024, driven by lower raw material costs and a higher proportion of higher-margin products [3] - The net profit margin is also on the rise, reaching 20.15% in early 2025, attributed to improved gross margins, optimized expense ratios, and reduced foreign exchange losses [3] Group 4: Market Expansion and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned to benefit from the expansion of emerging markets, driven by high birth rates and low penetration rates in hygiene products, particularly in Africa, where the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 8% from 2025 to 2028 [4] - The competitive advantage lies in deep localization, with the company establishing a comprehensive production, supply, and sales system that covers 80% of the local population through 51 production lines across eight countries [4] - The company has achieved leading sales in baby diapers and sanitary napkins in Africa, supported by a cost-effective product strategy and extensive distribution networks [4]