Core Viewpoint - The formation of a market top is a gradual process rather than an instantaneous event, with key indicators emerging from the credit conditions of AI giants, political pressures from the public regarding living costs, and potential disruptive changes in U.S. tariff policies [1][2]. Group 1: Credit Market Dynamics - AI giants are facing severe challenges in their financing models, leading to a significant increase in bond market activity, with $120 billion in bonds issued over the past seven weeks, resulting in a widening credit spread from 50 basis points to nearly 80 basis points [3]. - The current situation mirrors the pre-burst conditions of the 2000 internet bubble, with rising risk aversion among investors [3]. Group 2: Political and Economic Pressures - Recent election results indicate strong voter dissatisfaction with affordability issues, suggesting increased government intervention to control prices, which could squeeze corporate profits [2][4]. - The political landscape is shifting, with potential implications for inflation control and budget deficits becoming critical as public anger over living costs grows [4]. Group 3: Policy Changes and Market Implications - A possible overturning of current tariff rulings by the U.S. Supreme Court could reshape market dynamics, reducing inflation expectations and creating structural opportunities in emerging markets [5]. - The shift in tariff policy may weaken the U.S. government's leverage in global influence through technology and decrease tariff revenues, while also aiding in lowering inflation expectations [5]. Group 4: Labor Market and Economic Outlook - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with over 1 million layoffs reported this year, indicating a K-shaped economic recovery where certain groups feel poorer rather than wealthier [6]. - Structural unemployment driven by AI advancements is accelerating, and the best hedge against potential recession signals is to go long on zero-coupon bonds [6].

Core Viewpoint - Luxurious Comfort, a multinational hygiene products company, is set to launch an IPO from October 31 to November 5, aiming to raise up to HKD 2.38 billion, marking a significant milestone as the first company headquartered in the Middle East to list in Hong Kong [1][2]. Company Overview - Founded by a couple from the "post-70s" generation, Shen Yanchang and Yang Yanjuan, Luxurious Comfort is known as the "King of Diapers in Africa" and has established a strong presence in the African market [1][4]. - The company is headquartered in the Dubai Airport Free Zone and has become the leading manufacturer of hygiene products in Africa, with a total of 8 production facilities and 51 production lines [2][3]. Financial Performance - Luxurious Comfort has seen a steady increase in revenue, achieving USD 320 million in 2022, USD 411 million in 2023, and projected revenue of USD 454 million in 2024 [3]. - The company sold approximately 10.8 billion diapers over three years, with sales of 2.995 billion diapers in 2022, 3.714 billion in 2023, and an expected 4.123 billion in 2024 [2][3]. Market Position - In the African market, Luxurious Comfort holds the largest market share for baby diapers at 20.3% and for sanitary napkins at 15.6% based on 2024 sales volume [3]. - The company ranks second in revenue market share for baby diapers at 17.2% and sanitary napkins at 11.9% in Africa [3]. Growth Strategy - The company plans to allocate over 70% of the IPO proceeds for capacity expansion and production line upgrades, with approximately 34.5% earmarked for new production lines in Ghana and Senegal [5][6]. - Luxurious Comfort aims to replicate its successful localized product and self-built channel model in Latin America and Central Asia, with about 11.6% of the funds designated for marketing and promotional activities in these regions [6].

Market Overview - On November 6, A-shares saw a rally with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 4000 points, driven by a rebound in computing hardware stocks, leading the ChiNext Index to rise over 2% during the session [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4007.76 points, up 0.97%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13452.42 points, up 1.73%; and the ChiNext Index closed at 3224.62 points, up 1.84% [6] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 20,759 billion yuan, an increase of 1,816 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [6] International Market Performance - Japanese and South Korean stock markets both closed higher on November 6, with the Nikkei 225 Index rising 1.34% to 50,883.68 points, led by gains in the electronics and machinery sectors [6] - The Korean Composite Index ended a two-day decline, closing up 0.55% at 4,026.45 points [6] Bond Market - As of the close on November 6, the main contracts for government bonds showed mixed results, with the 30-year government bond futures (TL2512) closing at 116.110 yuan, down 0.330 yuan (0.28%); the 10-year bond futures (T2512) at 108.535 yuan, down 0.095 yuan (0.09%); and the 5-year bond futures (TF2512) at 105.965 yuan, down 0.035 yuan (0.03%) [6] Commodity Market - On November 6, most domestic commodity futures contracts closed higher, with paraxylene rising over 3%, and coking coal, PTA, and caustic soda rising over 2% [7] - The shipping index (European line) fell over 3%, while asphalt dropped over 2% [7] Institutional Insights - Swiss Bank's Nenad Dinic indicated that cyclical and structural favorable factors will support emerging market stocks to maintain strong momentum through 2026 [7] - Industrial Securities noted that the recent volatility in overseas markets is due to weakening fundamentals and liquidity, driven by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and concerns over AI giants' capital expenditures [7] - CITIC Securities reported that gold will continue to benefit from global liquidity expansion and preferences driven by de-globalization risks, with multiple factors likely to drive gold prices upward next year [7] Industry Specific Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted that the liquor sector has underperformed significantly since 2025, predicting that the second half of 2025 will mark the bottom of the liquor industry's fundamentals, characterized by weak sales and declining prices [8] - Guotai Junan Securities stated that the high certainty of Federal Reserve rate cuts has not been fully reflected, leading to a valuation digestion phase in Hong Kong stocks, but the core logic of rate cuts remains intact, limiting the downside for Hong Kong stocks [8] - Recent tax policy changes regarding gold by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation are expected to significantly impact the pricing and overall supply-demand balance in the futures market [8]

Core Insights - The issuance of the first two Brazilian ETFs has seen a low subscription ratio of less than 12%, marking the lowest level since 2021 and highlighting the evolving landscape of cross-border ETFs [1][3][4] Group 1: Brazilian ETFs - The subscription ratio for the E Fund Itaú Brazil IBOVESPA ETF is 11.823%, while the Huaxia Bradesco Brazil IBOVESPA ETF has a ratio of 11.54%, both reflecting a significant oversubscription with total funds exceeding 5 billion yuan [3][4] - The low subscription ratios are attributed to a set fundraising cap of 300 million yuan for each product and high investor enthusiasm, with total subscription funds exceeding 5 billion yuan [4] - The trend of low subscription ratios is not isolated, as seen in the first two Saudi ETFs launched in June 2024, which also faced fundraising caps due to QDII quota limitations [4] Group 2: Cross-Border ETF Trends - The total scale of cross-border ETFs has reached nearly 900 billion yuan, with emerging markets becoming a focal point for investment [1][6] - Since 2025, the scale of cross-border ETFs has increased by 473.75 billion yuan, accounting for 52.76% of the total, with 47 new products launched [6] - The majority of cross-border ETFs focus on Hong Kong and US markets, with 24 ETFs exceeding 10 billion yuan in scale, indicating a strong market interest [6] Group 3: Global Investment Trends - The trend of "global layout" is becoming increasingly evident, driven by investor demand for diversification and the opening of mechanisms like the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect [9] - Cross-border ETFs facilitate a two-way flow of capital, allowing both foreign and domestic investors to access each other's markets [11] - Emerging markets, including India, Vietnam, and Russia, are expected to become future focal points for fund companies, as they have shown strong market performance [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant oversubscription of the initial public offering (IPO) of the baby diaper manufacturer, Le Shushi, with a subscription amount reaching HKD 323.1 billion, which is 1,356 times the public offering amount of HKD 238 million [1] - Le Shushi plans to issue 90.884 million shares at an offering price between HKD 24.2 and HKD 26.2, aiming to raise up to HKD 2.38 billion, with a minimum entry fee of approximately HKD 5,292.9 for one lot of shares [1] - The company is expected to be listed on November 10, with China International Capital Corporation, CITIC Securities, and GF Securities acting as joint sponsors [1] Group 2 - Le Shushi is a multinational hygiene products company focusing on emerging markets in Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia, primarily engaged in the development, manufacturing, and sales of baby diapers, baby pull-ups, sanitary napkins, and wet wipes [1] - The majority of Le Shushi's revenue comes from sales to African customers, with East Africa contributing 46.5%, West Africa 39.5%, Central Africa 10.6%, and Latin America and Central Asia accounting for 3.3% and 0.1%, respectively, in the first four months of this year [1] - According to Frost & Sullivan, Le Shushi ranks first in the African baby diaper and sanitary napkin markets by sales volume, with market shares of 20.3% and 15.6%, respectively [2] Group 3 - The founders of Le Shushi, Shen Yanchang and Yang Yanjuan, hold a combined 64.42% stake in the company, with their registered address in Hong Kong [2] - The cornerstone investors include BA Capital, Arc Avenue, Arcane Nexus, and several others, with a total investment of USD 139 million (approximately HKD 1.08 billion), representing 45.34% of the initial offering size at the maximum price of HKD 26.2 [2] Group 4 - The net proceeds from the fundraising will be allocated as follows: 71.4% for expanding overall production capacity and upgrading production lines, 11.6% for marketing and promotional activities in Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia, 4.7% for strategic acquisitions in the hygiene products sector, and 0.4% for upgrading the CRM system [3] - Additionally, 2.6% will be used for hiring management consulting firms to analyze new markets and products, while 9.3% will be allocated for working capital and general corporate purposes [3]

Core Viewpoint - The first two Brazilian ETFs in China experienced overwhelming demand, with subscription confirmation ratios of 11.823% and 11.538679%, leading to a significant oversubscription of approximately 7 times the fundraising limit [1][2][3][5]. Group 1: Subscription Results - The subscription confirmation ratio for E Fund's Brazilian ETF was 11.823%, resulting in a fundraising scale of about 25.4 billion yuan [1][3]. - The subscription confirmation ratio for Huaxia's Brazilian ETF was 11.538679%, leading to a fundraising scale of nearly 26 billion yuan [1][5]. - Both ETFs had a fundraising cap of 3 billion yuan, indicating a strong investor interest in these products [1][2]. Group 2: Market Context - The high oversubscription is attributed to a recovering market and investor enthusiasm for equity funds, as well as some investors seeking arbitrage opportunities due to limited QDII quotas [1][10]. - The Brazilian capital market is characterized by high growth potential and volatility, influenced by domestic fiscal policies, interest rate cycles, and political ecology [10]. Group 3: Product Background - These two Brazilian ETFs are the first in China to track Brazilian market indices, specifically the Ibovespa index, and are part of a mutual connectivity product [7][8]. - The issuance of these ETFs marks a significant expansion into the South American capital market for domestic fund managers [13]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The number of cross-border ETFs focusing on non-U.S. markets is increasing, reflecting domestic institutions' efforts to diversify investment tools and meet investor demand [12][14]. - As of now, there are 16 cross-border ETFs issued by domestic fund companies, covering various regions including Asia-Pacific and Europe [14].

Core Viewpoint - The company, LeShuShi, is set to launch its global IPO on November 6, 2023, with a pricing range of HKD 24.2-26.2 per share, aiming to raise between HKD 22.0-23.8 billion, and potentially up to HKD 27.4 billion with the green shoe option. Despite institutional interest, the company faces multiple operational risks including slow market expansion and declining performance growth [1][2][3]. Group 1: IPO Details - The IPO will consist of 90.88 million shares, with a total fundraising target of HKD 22.0-23.8 billion, and a potential green shoe option raising it to HKD 25.3-27.4 billion [1]. - The net proceeds from the IPO will be allocated as follows: 71.4% for capacity expansion and production upgrades, 11.6% for marketing in emerging markets, 4.7% for strategic acquisitions, and 9.3% for working capital [2]. Group 2: Investor Participation - A strong cornerstone investor lineup includes 15 institutions investing a total of USD 139 million, representing 49.1% of the base offering size, marking the highest cornerstone participation for projects in the HKD 20-30 billion range in 2024 [3][4]. - Notably, there is a lack of industrial participants in the cornerstone investment, which may limit the company's support in supply chain integration and market channel expansion [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Revenue growth has slowed, with projections showing a drop from 28.6% in 2023 to 10.5% in 2024, raising concerns about sustainable growth in a maturing African market [6]. - The company reported revenues of approximately USD 3.2 billion in 2022, increasing to USD 4.5 billion in 2024, but the growth rate is expected to decline further [6][8]. - Gross margins have fluctuated, with a drop from 34.9%-35.3% in 2023-2024 to 33.6% in early 2025, primarily due to declining product prices [6]. Group 4: Operational Risks - The company faces significant inventory management issues, with inventory turnover days averaging 140 days, compared to industry leaders at around 60 days, indicating potential cash flow pressures [6][10]. - The customer concentration is low, with the top five customers contributing only 6.3% of revenue, reflecting weak customer loyalty and sales stability [6][10]. Group 5: Compliance and Valuation Concerns - The company has outstanding social security and provident fund payments totaling USD 200,000, raising compliance concerns amid a cash balance of USD 84.53 million [10]. - The IPO valuation corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6, which is slightly lower than Procter & Gamble but significantly higher than Kimberly-Clark, raising questions about growth sustainability given the operational risks [12].

Core Viewpoint - The company LeShuShi is set to launch its IPO on November 10, 2023, with a pricing range of HKD 24.2-26.2 per share, aiming to raise between HKD 22.0-23.8 billion, and potentially up to HKD 27.4 billion with the green shoe option. Despite institutional interest, the company faces multiple operational risks including slow market expansion and declining performance growth [1][2][3]. Group 1: IPO Details - The IPO will consist of 90.88 million shares, with a total fundraising target of HKD 22.0-23.8 billion, and a potential green shoe option raising it to HKD 25.3-27.4 billion [1]. - The cornerstone investors include 15 institutions investing a total of USD 139 million, representing 49.1% of the base offering size, marking the highest cornerstone ratio for projects in the HKD 20-30 billion range in 2024 [3][4]. - Notably, there are no industry participants among the cornerstone investors, which may limit the company's support in supply chain integration and market channel expansion [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue growth has slowed, with projections showing a drop from 28.6% in 2023 to 10.5% in 2024, and a slight recovery to 15.5% in early 2025, raising concerns about sustainability [5][6]. - The gross margin has fluctuated, dropping from 34.9%-35.3% in 2023-2024 to 33.6% in early 2025, primarily due to declining prices of baby hygiene products [6][7]. - Net profit increased significantly from USD 18.39 million in 2022 to USD 64.68 million in 2023, but growth slowed to USD 33.1 million in early 2025, with a net profit margin decrease from 20.9% in 2024 to 19.3% [8][9]. Group 3: Operational Risks - The company faces significant inventory management issues, with inventory turnover days averaging 140-152 days, compared to industry leaders like Procter & Gamble and Kimberly-Clark at around 60 days [9]. - Customer concentration is low, with the top five customers accounting for only 5.2%-6.3% of revenue, indicating weak customer loyalty and potential sales instability [9]. - The company has not rectified outstanding social security and provident fund payments totaling USD 200,000, raising compliance concerns and potential regulatory risks [11]. Group 4: Valuation Concerns - The IPO valuation corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6, which is slightly lower than Procter & Gamble's 23.2 but significantly higher than Kimberly-Clark's 13.2, raising questions about growth sustainability [12][13]. - Given the company's reliance on a single market and slow expansion in emerging markets, the current valuation may lack sufficient growth support, leading to potential valuation adjustments if performance does not meet expectations [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The company Leshush is on the verge of a significant milestone with its upcoming IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, having established itself as a leading player in the African diaper and sanitary napkin market over the past two decades [1] Company Overview - Leshush was spun off from the fast-moving consumer goods division of the SenDa Group, founded by Shen Yanchang in Guangzhou in February 2004 [2] - The company has a strong foothold in Africa, having initially entered the market through trade in construction materials and daily necessities, later expanding into personal care products [2][3] Market Position - According to Frost & Sullivan, Leshush ranks first in Africa's baby diaper and sanitary napkin markets by volume, with market shares of 20.3% and 15.6% respectively for 2024 [4] - In terms of revenue, Leshush ranks second in both markets, with shares of 17.2% for baby diapers and 11.9% for sanitary napkins [4] Manufacturing and Localization - Leshush has established a localized manufacturing presence in Africa, with eight factories and 51 production lines, achieving a total designed capacity of 6.3 billion baby diapers annually [5] - The company has successfully created thousands of jobs in Africa, contributing to local economic development while meeting essential consumer needs [5] Competitive Pricing Strategy - Leshush has adopted a low-cost strategy, with its baby diapers priced at approximately 9 cents per piece, significantly undercutting international competitors like Procter & Gamble and Kimberly-Clark [6] - The company has positioned itself among the top four players in the African baby diaper market, with projected sales of 4.06 billion pieces in 2024, surpassing major competitors [6] Financial Performance - Leshush's revenue grew from $320 million in 2022 to $411 million in 2023, marking a 28.6% increase, but growth slowed to 10.5% in 2024 [7] - Net profit surged from $18 million in 2022 to $65 million in 2023, but the growth rate dropped to 47% in 2024 [7] - The company's gross margin has shown a downward trend, with rates of 23.0%, 34.9%, 35.2%, and 33.6% over the past four years [7][8] Market Dynamics - The company faces challenges from rising raw material costs and increased competition as international giants localize their production in Africa [6][8] - Despite these challenges, the demographic dividend and rapid consumer spending growth in Africa remain strong growth drivers for Leshush [8]

Company Overview - Leshu Shi operates in emerging markets such as Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia, focusing on hygiene products like diapers and sanitary pads[1] - The company has established a sales network across over 30 countries, with 18 branches and more than 2,800 wholesalers and retailers as of April 30, 2025[1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 was $320 million, $411 million, and $454 million, reflecting year-on-year growth of 28.6% and 10.5% respectively; revenue for the first four months of 2025 was $161 million, up 15.5%[2] - Net profit for the same years was $18 million, $65 million, and $95 million, with growth rates of 251.7% and 47.0%; net profit for the first four months of 2025 was $31 million, a 12.5% increase[2] - Gross margin improved from 23.0% in 2022 to 35.2% in 2024, with a gross margin of 33.6% in the first four months of 2025[2] Market Trends - The African market for baby diapers is projected to grow from $2.9 billion in 2020 to $3.8 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 6.8%[3] - Latin America's market is expected to increase from $6.9 billion in 2020 to $7.7 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 2.7%[3] - Central Asia's market is forecasted to grow from $0.4 billion in 2020 to $0.5 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 4.5%[3] Competitive Position - Leshu Shi holds the largest market share in Africa's baby diaper market at 20.3% and in the sanitary pad market at 15.6%[3] - The top five players in the African baby diaper market account for 61.2% of the market share, indicating high brand concentration[3] Opportunities and Risks - The company benefits from a strong position in emerging markets and a well-established sales network[4] - Risks include intense competition from global players and potential shifts in consumer preferences[5] IPO Details - The IPO is scheduled from October 31 to November 5, 2025, with trading starting on November 10, 2025[6] - The expected price range for shares is HKD 24.2 to 26.2, with total fundraising estimated at HKD 2.199 to 2.381 billion before greenshoe options[9] Investment Recommendation - The IPO rating is 5.3 out of 10, based on operational performance, industry outlook, valuation, and market sentiment[8] - Despite a higher valuation compared to peers, the growth potential in emerging markets makes the stock attractive for investment[13]