Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the accelerated issuance of local government bonds in China during the first half of the year, with a total issuance of approximately 5.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 57% [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Overview - In the first half of the year, local government bonds were issued at a rapid pace, with new bonds accounting for approximately 2.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43%, while refinancing bonds reached about 2.9 trillion yuan, growing by approximately 73% [1][2]. - More than half of the funds from local government bonds were used for refinancing old debts, which alleviated current fiscal pressures and allowed local governments to focus more on development and public welfare [2]. Group 2: Fund Allocation and Project Focus - The newly issued special bonds, totaling around 2.2 trillion yuan, were primarily directed towards infrastructure and public welfare projects, with significant allocations to municipal and industrial park infrastructure (28%), transportation projects (19%), and land reserve projects (11%) [3]. - The government has allowed special bonds to be used for land reserve projects to stabilize the real estate market, leading to increased funding in this area [3]. Group 3: Debt Management and Financial Health - The average issuance term of local government bonds has extended to 16.4 years, with an average interest rate of 1.95%, lower than the previous year's rate of 2.29%, which helps reduce financing costs [4]. - As of May 2025, the total local government debt stood at 51.25 trillion yuan, remaining within the limit of 57.99 trillion yuan, indicating that debt risks are generally manageable [4]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to expedite the issuance of long-term special bonds to support economic stability and growth, with expectations for increased issuance in the third quarter [4].

Group 1 - The issuance of local government bonds has significantly accelerated, with over 4 trillion yuan issued this year, of which nearly 40% are new special bonds [1] - The new special bonds are primarily directed towards major project construction, with 16.457 billion yuan in new local bonds issued [1] - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has reached 108.348 billion yuan, accounting for 7.75% of the new special bond funds [1] Group 2 - Land reserve activities are concentrated in economically stable regions, with third and fourth-tier cities showing high participation rates, accounting for nearly 75% of acquisition amounts [2] - More than half of the local bonds issued this year are for "borrowing new to repay old," primarily to replace hidden debts, with 82.8% of the planned total already disclosed [2] - The issuance of new local bonds is expected to accelerate, with June's issuance projected at around 1 trillion yuan [3] Group 3 - Infrastructure investment remains a key focus for the funding from new special bonds, with a significant emphasis on construction projects in the real estate sector [3] - The issuance pace of local government bonds is anticipated to increase in the second quarter, with an estimated total of 1.2 trillion yuan for the entire quarter [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The report presents basic data including the ChinaBond Composite Index at 254.4, the ChinaBond Long/Medium and Short - term Index at 245.4/209.1, the 10 - year inter - bank treasury bond yield at 1.65, and the enterprise/company/convertible bond scales at 70.2/23.7/6.9 trillion respectively [4] Summary by Related Catalog Government Debt Issuance - **Total Net Financing of Treasury Bonds and New Local Bonds**: In the 24th week (6/9 - 6/15), it was 2704 billion yuan, and in the 25th week (6/16 - 6/22), it was 2048 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative general deficit was 5.1 trillion yuan, with a progress of 43.4%, exceeding the same period last year [1][7] - **Net Financing of Government Bonds**: In the 24th week, it was 2190 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it was 2594 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative amount was 6.8 trillion yuan, 3.6 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, mainly due to the rapid issuance of special bonds for replacing implicit debts and treasury bonds [1][7] - **Net Financing of Treasury Bonds**: In the 24th week, it was 2621 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it was 1351 billion yuan. The total annual net financing of treasury bonds is 6.66 trillion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative amount was 3.1 trillion yuan, with a progress of 47.1%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [1][8] - **Net Financing of Local Bonds**: In the 24th week, it was - 430 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it was 1243 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative amount was 3.7 trillion yuan, 2.1 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][10] - **New General Bonds**: In the 24th week, 13 billion yuan was issued, and in the 25th week, 272 billion yuan was issued. The local deficit in 2025 is 8000 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 3610 billion yuan, with a progress of 45.1%, exceeding the same period last year [1][10] - **New Special Bonds**: In the 24th week, 71 billion yuan was issued, and in the 25th week, 425 billion yuan was issued. The planned issuance of new special bonds in 2025 is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.5%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 3196 billion yuan and land reserve special bonds of 1699 billion yuan have been issued. The cumulative disclosed acquisition of idle land projects covers 4176 parcels, with a capital scale (including proposed) of about 4564 billion yuan [2][14] - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: In the 24th week, 267 billion yuan was issued, and in the 25th week, 527 billion yuan was issued. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.7 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 84% [2][28] - **Urban Investment Bonds**: In the 24th week, the net financing was - 6 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it is expected to be - 383 billion yuan. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.4 trillion yuan [2][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The report presents the weekly observation data of government debt, including the net financing and issuance progress of various types of government bonds, as well as the net financing and balance of urban investment bonds [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Government Debt Overall Situation - The net financing of national debt plus the issuance of new local bonds were 214 billion yuan in the 23rd week (6/2 - 6/8) and 268.9 billion yuan in the 24th week (6/9 - 6/15). As of the 23rd week, the cumulative general deficit was 4.7 trillion yuan, with a progress of 41.1%, exceeding the same period last year [1][6] - The net financing of government bonds was 248.5 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 217.5 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 6.6 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 3.7 trillion yuan, mainly due to the rapid issuance of special bonds for replacing hidden debts and national debt [6] National Debt - The net financing of national debt was 19.8 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 26.05 billion yuan in the 24th week. The total net financing of national debt for the whole year is 6.66 trillion yuan. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 2.9 trillion yuan, with a progress of 43.1%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [1][7] Local Debt - The net financing of local debt was 5.05 billion yuan in the 23rd week and -4.3 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 3.7 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.1 trillion yuan [1][10] New General Debt - The issuance of new general debt was 0.87 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 0.13 billion yuan in the 24th week. In 2025, the local deficit is 80 billion yuan. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 35.97 billion yuan, with a progress of 45%, exceeding the same period last year [1][10] New Special Debt - The issuance of new special debt was 0.73 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 0.71 billion yuan in the 24th week. In 2025, the arrangement for new special debt is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 1.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.3%, exceeding the same period last year [2][13] - Special new special bonds worth 26.04 billion yuan have been issued, and land reserve special bonds worth 10.83 billion yuan have been issued. The disclosed projects for acquiring idle land have covered 4,176 parcels of land, with a capital scale of about 45.64 billion yuan [2][13] Special Refinancing Bonds - The issuance of special refinancing bonds was 2.77 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 2.67 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 1.7 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 84% [2][27] Urban Investment Bonds - The net financing of urban investment bonds was -0.97 billion yuan in the 23rd week and is expected to be -2.91 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.5 trillion yuan [2][28][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the analysis of the economic, fiscal, and debt changes in China and its provinces in 2024. It reveals the overall trends and provincial - level differences in these aspects, aiming to track the changes in local economic finance, debt pressure, and solvency [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Establishment of the Database - Huachuang Fixed - Income has established the [Local Economic, Fiscal, and Debt Database 2025 Edition], which includes economic, fiscal, and debt data from 2018 onwards for the whole country, provinces, prefecture - level cities, and districts and counties. It covers various indicators such as GDP and its growth rate, general public budget revenue, fiscal self - sufficiency rate, government - funded revenue, central transfer payments to local governments, comprehensive financial resources, local government debt balance, interest - bearing debt balance of bond - issuing urban investment companies, regional broad - sense debt balance, and regional broad - sense debt ratio [1][8]. 3.2 Changes in National Economic, Fiscal, and Debt Conditions in 2024 3.2.1 Economic Aspect - China's economic aggregate was close to 135 trillion yuan, with the tertiary industry accounting for 56.7% of GDP, reaching a historical high and providing significant support to the economy. The GDP was 134.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5%. The proportion of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries in GDP was 6.8%, 36.5%, and 56.7% respectively, with the primary and secondary industries decreasing by 0.3 and 1.8 percentage points year - on - year, and the tertiary industry increasing by 2.1 percentage points [2][9]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Aspect - China's local government's comprehensive financial resources decreased by 3.3% year - on - year to 27.7 trillion yuan. The general public budget revenue was 11.93 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%, but with limited growth in the first three quarters due to factors such as insufficient domestic demand, falling price indices, and the carry - over effect of tax cuts. The government - funded revenue was 5.74 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%, mainly due to the continued decline in land transfer revenue. The central transfer payments to local governments were 10.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [2][13]. 3.2.3 Debt Aspect - In 2024, 2 trillion yuan of replacement bonds and 800 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued for debt resolution. The regional broad - sense debt balance and debt ratio increased year - on - year, and the growth rate also increased compared to the previous year. However, under the combined effect of debt resolution and strict debt supervision, the growth rate of urban investment debt slowed down significantly to 3.1%. By the end of 2024, the local government debt balance was 47.54 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%, with the growth rate increasing by 0.5 percentage points. The interest - bearing debt balance of bond - issuing urban investment companies was 63.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%, with the growth rate decreasing by 8.6 percentage points. The regional broad - sense debt balance was 111.44 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%, and the regional broad - sense debt ratio was 402%, an increase of 44 percentage points [2][17]. 3.3 Changes in Provincial Economic, Fiscal, and Debt Conditions in 2024 3.3.1 Economic Aspect - The number of provinces with an economic volume of over 5 trillion yuan increased to 11 (including newly added Shanghai and Anhui), and the number of provinces with a growth rate reaching the national average increased to 22. Guangdong and Jiangsu still led in economic volume, both exceeding 13 trillion yuan. Hainan, Ningxia, Qinghai, and Tibet had an economic volume of less than 1 trillion yuan. Tibet had the highest growth rate of 6.3%, while Shanxi's GDP growth rate was only 2.3% due to the continuous decline in energy prices [3][20]. 3.3.2 Fiscal Aspect - The comprehensive financial resources of 22 provinces increased, while those of Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Guangdong decreased significantly due to the drag of government - funded revenue. In terms of general public budget revenue, 5 provinces (Qinghai, Henan, Guangdong, Shaanxi, and Hainan) decreased year - on - year, mainly due to factors such as insufficient domestic demand and falling price indices. 26 provinces had an increase, and Tibet, Jilin, and Xinjiang had a year - on - year growth rate of over 10%. In terms of government - funded revenue, 21 provinces decreased year - on - year, with Hunan's government - funded revenue decreasing by 32% due to a significant decline in land transfer revenue. Tianjin, Yunnan, Hubei, and Heilongjiang saw a year - on - year increase of over 10% due to a slight recovery in the land market. In terms of central transfer payments to local governments, 6 provinces (Guangdong, Jiangsu, Beijing, Jilin, Tianjin, and Shanghai) decreased slightly year - on - year [4][24]. 3.3.3 Debt Aspect - Among the 31 provinces, only Tianjin's broad - sense debt balance decreased year - on - year, and 25 provinces' broad - sense debt ratios increased year - on - year, with Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Guangdong being more prominent. Tianjin achieved remarkable results in urban investment debt resolution. In terms of local government debt balance, all provinces had an increase, with Tibet having an 80% year - on - year increase due to a low base, and 25 provinces having a year - on - year growth rate of over 10%, mainly due to the high issuance of replacement bonds in 2024. In terms of the interest - bearing debt balance of bond - issuing urban investment companies, 23 provinces had an increase, with Hainan, Xinjiang, and Jilin having a year - on - year growth rate of over 10%. Heilongjiang, Tianjin, and Liaoning had a year - on - year decrease of over 15%, and specific entities in these provinces also achieved good debt - resolution results [5][27][28].

Group 1: Debt Issuance and Local Government Financing - In 2023, 33 regions in China have initiated the issuance of refinancing special bonds, with a total issuance of 1.629 trillion yuan, achieving 81.45% of the 2 trillion yuan quota [1] - The issuance of refinancing bonds has slowed down significantly, with only 21.1 billion yuan issued in May, compared to previous months' issuance in the hundreds of billions [1] - New special bonds have started to increase, with 443.2 billion yuan issued in May, bringing the total for the first five months to 1.63 trillion yuan, which is 37% of the annual quota of 4.4 trillion yuan [1][2] Group 2: U.S. Trade Policies and Legal Challenges - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that former President Trump's tariff measures are invalid, stating that the President does not have the authority to impose such tariffs without Congressional approval [3] - This ruling is seen as a significant legal challenge to Trump's trade policies, although the White House plans to appeal, indicating that the ruling may not have immediate effects [3][4] - The ruling disrupts ongoing trade negotiations and may lead to increased pressure on the U.S. government as more lawsuits against tariff policies are anticipated [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes indicate a cautious approach towards interest rate cuts, with decision-makers concerned about economic uncertainties, particularly regarding the impact of tariffs [5] - Fed officials expressed worries about tariffs potentially driving inflation, complicating the balance between controlling inflation and maintaining employment [5] Group 4: Nvidia's Financial Performance - Nvidia reported a 69% year-over-year revenue increase for Q1 of fiscal year 2026, reaching 44.062 billion USD, surpassing market expectations [8] - The company anticipates Q2 sales to be around 45 billion USD, slightly below market expectations, primarily due to losses from export restrictions on H20 chips [8][9] - Nvidia's strong performance is attributed to high demand for AI chips, with the gaming segment becoming a smaller part of its overall revenue [8] Group 5: Airline Fuel Surcharge Adjustments - Starting June 5, 2025, domestic flights under 800 kilometers will no longer charge a fuel surcharge, while flights over that distance will incur a 10 yuan fee [10][11] - This adjustment reflects a decrease in fuel surcharge rates, which had previously reached a high of 100 yuan [10][11] Group 6: Trends in Public Hospital Mergers - There has been a notable trend of public hospital mergers in China, with at least ten cases reported in the past three years, primarily due to operational inefficiencies [12][13] - The mergers are seen as a response to declining patient numbers and increased competition, leading to a need for consolidation in the healthcare sector [12][13]

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 贾东旭 等 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 常规跟踪：广义财政收支增速均有提升，一季度预算完成度均高于过去五年同期平均 一般财政收入有所修复，推动广义财政收入回暖。 3月广义财政收入同比-1.7%，较2月同比提升1.2个百 分点；其中，政府性基金收入同比-11.7%，一般财政收入同比0.3%。从预算完成度看，3月广义财政收入 预算完成6.8%，略高于2024年同期及过去五年平均的6.6%；一季度广义财政收入预算完成24.6%，高于 过去五年平均24.1%。 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 摘要 事件： 4月18日，财政部公布2025年一季度财政收支情况。一季度，全国一般公共预算收入60189亿元， 同比下降1.1%；全国一般公共预算支出72815亿元，同比增长4.2%。 点评：财政"续力"正当时，储备政策推出节奏值得重点关注 广义财政收支增速均有提升，一季度预算完成度均高于过去五年同期平均。 2025年3月，广义财政收入 同比-1.7%，广义财政支出同比10.1%， ...

贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 摘要 一般财政收入有所修复，推动广义财政收入回暖。 3月广义财政收入同比-1.7%，较2月同比提升1.2个百 分点；其中，政府性基金收入同比-11.7%，一般财政收入同比0.3%。从预算完成度看，3月广义财政收入 预算完成6.8%，略高于2024年同期及过去五年平均的6.6%；一季度广义财政收入预算完成24.6%，高于 过去五年平均24.1%。 一般财政、政府性基金支出均加快，推动广义财政支出明显提速。 3月广义财政支出同比10.1%，较2月 增速提升7.2个百分点；一般财政支出同比5.7%，政府性基金支出同比27.9%。从预算完成度看3月广义财 政支出预算完成8.6%，略低于过去五年平均支出进度8.8%。一季度广义财政支出预算完成21.9%，略高 于过去五年平均21.8%。 风险提示 事件： 4月18日，财政部公布2025年一季度财政收支情况。一季度，全国一般公共预算收入60189亿元， 同比下降1.1%；全国一般公共预算支出72815亿元，同比增长4.2%。 点评：财政"续力"正当时，储备政策推出节奏值得重点关注 广义财政收支增速均 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue and expenditure data for January-February 2025 indicates a need for increased fiscal support through financing, as both revenue and expenditure growth rates are slowing down compared to previous years [2][8][13]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In January-February 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 43,856 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% [7]. - The national general public budget expenditure was 45,096 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [7]. - The broad fiscal revenue decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, while the budget completion rate was 17.8%, higher than the five-year average of 17.5% [4][8]. Group 2: Fiscal Support and Debt Issuance - The broad fiscal expenditure growth was 2.9% year-on-year, with a budget completion rate of 13.4%, consistent with the five-year average [5][21]. - New general bonds and carryover funds provided effective support for early fiscal expenditures, with a fiscal revenue shortfall of 0.6 trillion yuan, higher than the average of 0.1 trillion yuan from 2020-2024 [10][11]. - The issuance of new local bonds and special refinancing bonds reached nearly 1.8 trillion yuan in January-February 2025, with special refinancing bonds issued at a faster pace [11][13]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Expenditure Trends - Expenditure in science and technology, education, and social security showed relatively high growth rates of 10.6%, 7.7%, and 6.7% respectively [23]. - Government fund expenditure grew by 1.2% year-on-year, significantly slowing down due to a 15.7% decrease in land transfer income [28]. - The budget completion rate for government fund expenditure was 9.1%, lower than the five-year average of 9.7% [28].