Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The bullish trends in the Shanghai aluminum, zinc, nickel, and alumina futures markets have ended and turned into a volatile state, with alumina showing a bearish signal and industrial silicon showing a strong bearish signal. The Shanghai copper CU2509 is mainly volatile with a risk of further decline. The Shanghai lead PB2509 is at risk of falling to the bottom [1][10][14]. - The overall technical rating of the black sector is stable, with rebar turning bearish. Coking coal and coke are in an adjustment period after a sharp rise last week, showing a bearish signal next week. The coking coal JM2601 is at risk of a short - term decline [2][26][30]. - In the energy - chemical sector, asphalt is bullish, crude oil and fuel oil are volatile, and low - sulfur fuel oil and LPG are bearish. The glass, caustic soda, and soda ash in the chemical sector are mainly volatile, and the glass FG509 is at risk of a short - term decline [3][35][39]. - In the agricultural products sector, soybean oil is strongly bullish, and soybean No.2, soybean meal, rapeseed oil, red dates, and logs are cautiously bullish. Sugar and live pigs are bearish, and the sugar SR509 is at risk of a short - term decline [4][44][51]. Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous Metals Sector 1.1 Non - ferrous Metals Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - The bullish trends in the Shanghai aluminum, zinc, nickel, and alumina futures markets have ended and turned into a volatile state, with alumina turning bearish and industrial silicon showing a strong bearish signal. The Shanghai copper CU2509 is mainly volatile with a risk of further decline, and the Shanghai lead PB2509 is at risk of falling to the bottom [10][11][14]. 1.2 Non - ferrous Metals Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - Tin, lithium carbonate, and nickel have the largest fluctuation space, especially lithium carbonate S2 has a 7.4% jump compared to S3, so short - term fluctuation risks need to be noted. The pivot points of copper, aluminum, and zinc are concentrated, and there is strong resistance in the R2 - R3 of international copper. Alumina, lead, and stainless steel have the weakest fluctuations. Polysilicon/industrial silicon shows non - continuous price jumps, and tin and lithium carbonate have significant breakthrough opportunities, so position management is necessary [23]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector 2.1 Black and Shipping Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - The overall signal indicator rating of the black sector is relatively stable. Rebar has turned into a bearish signal. Coking coal and coke were mainly in a volatile adjustment this week after a sharp rise last week, and the technical indicator signal is bearish next week [26][27]. 2.2 Black and Shipping Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - Iron ore and European line container shipping had the smallest fluctuations this week. Coking coal and coke showed a stepped jump. Manganese silicon/silicon iron had the highest absolute price and dense resistance levels. The technical structure of hot - rolled coils is similar to that of rebar but at a higher price level. The resistance interval from the pivot point to R1 of wire rods jumped by 152 yuan. The R3 resistance of coke is close to the R2 of coking coal, and the prices of the two are strongly correlated. Overall, manganese silicon, silicon iron, and coke have greater breakthrough potential, while iron ore and European line container shipping have limited fluctuation space [33]. 3. Energy - Chemical Sector 3.1 Energy - Chemical Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - In the energy - chemical sector, except for asphalt showing a bullish technical indicator signal, crude oil and fuel oil have turned volatile, and low - sulfur fuel oil and LPG have turned bearish. The chemical sector is mainly divided into volatile and bearish parts, with glass, caustic soda, and soda ash being mainly volatile [35][36]. 3.2 Energy - Chemical Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - Crude oil had low volatility this week. The support and resistance intervals of soda ash, glass, and urea are narrow. Para - xylene, plastics, and styrene have high prices and significant fluctuations. PVC shows a jump - up structure. Natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber have dense resistance levels [40][42]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector 4.1 Agricultural Products Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - According to the technical indicator signal summary, soybean oil, soybean No.2, soybean meal, rapeseed oil, red dates, and logs in the agricultural products sector show bullish signals, among which soybean oil shows a strong bullish signal, and the others are cautiously bullish signals. Sugar and live pigs show bearish technical indicator signals [44][46]. 4.2 Agricultural Products Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - The live pig has the most dramatic fluctuations in the support and resistance intervals (the S3 - R3 span is 2264 yuan). There are short - term interval operation opportunities in the volatile market, but position management needs to be cautious. The technical structures of soybean varieties are dense (the R3 - S3 of soybean meal is only 297 yuan), and the interval operation space is small. Corn and its by - products have the weakest fluctuations, so position management is necessary [52].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market showed mixed results on July 30, with lead futures experiencing slight declines while the spot market remained stable [1] Supply Analysis - The supply of recycled lead is under pressure due to increased losses, with only a slight recovery expected in July for refined recycled lead. Regular maintenance of primary lead in regions like Yunnan and Inner Mongolia has not yet concluded, which may provide strong bottom support for lead prices [1] Demand Analysis - The lead-acid battery market shows slight improvements in some areas, but overall demand during the peak season is insufficient. The recent imposition of anti-dumping duties on Chinese lead-acid batteries by the Middle East raises concerns about future demand [1] Market Outlook - According to technical analysis, lead prices have returned to a fluctuating range, with risks of further declines gradually being released. The market is approaching the completion of the fourth wave, with expectations of a fifth wave rebound. It is suggested to consider buying on dips or purchasing call options [1]

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is neutral, with a balance of buy and sell signals across various moving averages [2][5]. - The 5-day simple moving average (MA5) is at 25017.4, indicating a sell signal, while the 50-day (MA50) and 100-day (MA100) moving averages show buy signals at 24840.0 and 24647.5 respectively [4][5]. - Technical indicators such as RSI(14) at 31 suggest a neutral position, while the Stochastic Oscillator indicates overbought conditions at 99.256 [6]. Group 2 - The Average True Range (ATR) is at 61.3214, indicating low volatility in the market [6]. - The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is at -73.2270, suggesting a bearish trend [6]. - The market is experiencing a mixed sentiment with equal buy and sell recommendations, leading to an overall neutral summary [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The colored metals sector should be vigilant against short - term trend reversals. Different varieties in the black, agricultural products, and energy - chemical sectors require differentiated risk management strategies, including short - term operations, band trading, and combining with fundamentals [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Colored Metals Sector - **1H25 Colored Metals Sector Technical Rating Review** - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals sector in 1H25 was weak, with significant differentiation among varieties. Traditional industrial metals were relatively resistant to decline, while new energy materials declined sharply. For example, copper and aluminum prices rose, while zinc, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon prices fell [13]. - The technical indicator ratings of copper and aluminum were generally consistent, but the correlation between the rating and actual yield was different. The technical indicators of zinc and lead had a high correlation with yields. For new energy metals, the effectiveness of technical indicator ratings was limited [15][23]. - **Detailed Review of Key Colored Metals Variety - Copper** - **Volume and Open Interest**: The price and volume changes of the Shanghai copper main - continuous contract in the first half of the year can be divided into five trends. Currently, the volume and open interest have rebounded slightly, but the price increase is limited, and it is necessary to wait for further volume signals [39][40][43]. - **MACD**: There were 5 golden cross signals and 3 dead cross signals in the first half of the year. The short - term MACD formed a dead cross signal, and there is a risk of short - term correction. Medium - and long - term operations need to consider the long - term bullish fundamentals [45][46]. - **Oscillating Indicators**: The overall signal effectiveness of oscillating indicators was insufficient. The long - cycle KDJ was more effective in observing large - scale corrections and sudden rebounds, while the CCI had a high failure rate [49][52]. - **Support and Resistance Levels**: The pivot point of Shanghai copper rose steadily, showing a bullish market. However, the resistance levels were "solidified", and the support levels were "moving up". The price was compressed in a box, and the adjustment of support and resistance levels in the third quarter needs to wait for short - term price and volume breakthroughs [53][55]. - **Colored Metals Sector Risk Management Guidelines** - Traditional non - ferrous metals and new energy metals can use technical indicator ratings to capture price risks. For example, for Shanghai aluminum, set stop - loss levels and use put options to hedge against correction risks; for Shanghai zinc, use call options instead of some long positions [61][62]. - Shanghai copper is in a stage of shock consolidation. There is a risk of short - term correction, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risks of downward break - through and false breakthrough. Long - term upward trends need to be confirmed by volume [63][65]. 3.2 Black Metals Sector - **1H25 Black Metals Sector Technical Rating Review** - In the first half of 2025, black metal futures all declined, with coking coal and coke leading the decline. The volatility of coking coal, coke, and iron ore was high, while that of rebar and hot - rolled coil was relatively low [64]. - The pivot point distribution of each variety showed obvious differentiation, with "raw materials > finished products > alloys" in terms of volatility gradient. Coking coal and coke had a high risk of breaking through S2 and R2, iron ore had a medium risk of breaking through S3, and manganese silicon had a high risk of breaking through R3 [89]. - **Detailed Review of Key Black Metals Variety - Rebar** - **Volume and Open Interest**: The price of the rebar main - continuous contract in 1H25 can be divided into five stages. Currently, the decline has slowed down, but the downward pressure has not been eliminated. The market is in a weak balance state, and it is necessary to be vigilant against break - through risks [92][93][94]. - **Technical Patterns**: The effectiveness of the dead cross signal of MACD was stronger than that of the golden cross signal. Oscillating indicators did not have significant long - or short - term guidance, and it was necessary to be cautious about rebounds in the third quarter [96][98]. - **Support and Resistance Levels**: The pivot point moved down step by step in 1H25, and the market was dominated by bears. The current price is in a box - shaped shock between S2 and R2. The adjustment of support and resistance levels in the third quarter needs to wait for short - term price and volume breakthroughs [102]. - **Black Metals Sector Risk Management Guidelines** - The upstream coking coal and coke can use short - term box operations based on the new weekly Fibonacci pivot, and long - term holding needs to consider fundamental fluctuations. Iron ore can appropriately loosen the box operation to S3 and R3. Rebar is in a weak shock pattern, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risks of short - term rebound and false breakthrough [113][115]. 3.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **1H25 Agricultural Products Sector Technical Rating Review** - Palm oil and soybean meal had high volatility, suitable for short - term active operations; pork and soybean oil had moderate volatility, suitable for medium - term trading; sugar, corn, and cotton had low volatility, suitable for trading strategies that follow the fundamentals [116]. - The overall fit between the market fluctuations and technical indicator ratings in the agricultural products sector was less than 40%, but the yield performance was relatively coordinated in long - and short - term ratings. High - volatility varieties need to use multi - dimensional technical indicators for refined market ratings [116]. - **Agricultural Products Sector Fibonacci Pivot Analysis** - Different varieties had different levels of activity. High - volatility varieties such as soybeans, palm oil, eggs, and red dates were suitable for short - term operations; medium - volatility varieties such as apples, corn starch, soybean meal, and peanuts were suitable for band trading; low - volatility varieties such as japonica rice and cotton were suitable for combining with fundamentals and waiting for key technical level breakthroughs [139]. 3.4 Energy - Chemical Sector - The energy - chemical sector mainly adopts differentiated risk management. High - volatility varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, and styrene are suitable for short - term operations; medium - volatility varieties such as LPG and asphalt are suitable for band trading; low - volatility varieties such as PVC and polypropylene are suitable for medium - term operations combined with fundamentals. PTA should be vigilant against overbought corrections [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to be weak with the increase in Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals, the reversal of the decline in domestic port inventories, the continuous decline in blast furnace operating rates and daily hot metal production, and the weakening of iron ore demand. The I2509 contract is recommended to consider a strategy of short - selling on rebounds [10]. - Given the continued decline in hot metal production, the reversal of the decline in iron ore port inventories, and the potential increase in inventory pressure during the consumption off - season, it is suggested to buy put options [55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Price**: As of June 13, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 703 (-4.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 760 (-10) yuan/dry ton [8]. - **Shipment**: From June 2 - 8, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 3510.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 79.4 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2919.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50.6 tons [8]. - **Arrival**: From June 2 - 8, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 2673.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 76.5 tons; at 45 ports, it was 2609.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 72.8 tons; at the six northern ports, it was 1383.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 157.2 tons [8]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal production was 241.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 2.30 tons [8]. - **Inventory**: As of June 13, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14503.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 102.83 tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 8798.68 tons, a week - on - week increase of 108.5 tons [7][8]. - **Profitability**: The profitability rate of steel mills was 58.44%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from last week and an increase of 8.66 percentage points from last year [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The I2509 contract was weak this week, and its performance was weaker than that of the I2601 contract. On the 13th, the spread was 30.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton [16]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Net Position**: On June 13, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 2700, a week - on - week increase of 800. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the ore futures contract was 30252, an increase of 6809 from the previous week [23]. - **Spot Price**: On June 13, the price of 61% Australian Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 760 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 13th, the basis was 57 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/ton [29]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Arrival Volume**: From June 2 - 8, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 Chinese ports increased [33]. - **Port Inventory**: This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14503.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 102.83 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 8798.68 tons, a week - on - week increase of 108.50 tons [36]. - **Inventory Availability**: As of June 12, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 21 days, a week - on - week increase of 2 days [39]. - **Import Volume and Capacity Utilization**: In May, China imported 9813.1 tons of iron ore and concentrates, a decrease of 500.7 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9%. From January - May, the cumulative import was 48640.9 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of June 13, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines was 61.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03% [42]. - **Domestic Production**: In April 2025, China's iron ore production was 8469.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. From January - April, the cumulative production was 32859.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.2%. The iron concentrate production of 433 iron mines was 2301.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 57.2 tons, a decrease of 2.4% [46]. 3.4. Downstream Situation - **Crude Steel Production**: In April, China's crude steel production was 8602 tons, the same as the previous year. From January - April, the cumulative production was 34535 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [49]. - **Steel Export and Import**: In May 2025, China exported 1057.8 tons of steel, an increase of 11.6 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. From January - May, the cumulative export was 4846.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. In May, China imported 48.1 tons of steel, a decrease of 4.1 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9%. From January - May, the cumulative import was 255.3 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1% [49]. - **Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Hot Metal Production**: On June 13, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.41%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from last week and an increase of 1.36 percentage points from last year. The daily average hot metal production was 241.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.30 tons [52]. 3.5. Options Market - Given the continued decline in hot metal production and the reversal of the decline in iron ore port inventories, it is recommended to buy put options [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc experiencing a volatile downward trend, closing with a negative candlestick, accompanied by shrinking trading volume. In terms of positions, long - positions decreased while short - positions increased, indicating a bearish trend. Technically, the price closed below the 20 - day moving average, weakening the support of the moving average. Short - term indicators suggest a weakening trend, while trend indicators show that the long - side strength is gradually gaining the upper hand. It is predicted that Shanghai Zinc ZN2507 will oscillate weakly [2][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In March 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.0874 million tons, consumption was 1.1335 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 46,000 tons. From January to March, global zinc plate production was 3.2831 million tons, consumption was 3.3848 million tons, with a supply shortage of 101,600 tons. In March, global zinc ore production was 1.0078 million tons, and from January to March, it was 2.9611 million tons [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price of zinc was 22,910 yuan/ton, with a basis of +700 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On May 28, LME zinc inventory decreased by 7,700 tons to 143,450 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants remained unchanged at 1,774 tons [2]. 3.4 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (May 28) - The total trading volume was 249,396 lots, with a total trading value of 2.78421384 billion yuan, and the total open interest was 229,140 lots, an increase of 4,544 lots [3]. 3.5 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (May 28) - Zinc concentrate price was 17,670 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; zinc ingot in Shanghai was 22,910 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet in China was 3,954 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton; galvanized pipe in China was 4,337 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 23,380 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; zinc powder in Changsha was 27,770 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 21,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; and secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou was 7,831 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 3.6 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (April 30 - May 26, 2025) - Compared with last Thursday, the total inventory decreased by 31,000 tons; compared with last Monday, it decreased by 72,000 tons [5]. 3.7 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (May 28) - The total zinc warrants were 1,774 tons, with no change [6]. 3.8 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics (May 28) - The total inventory was 143,450 tons, a decrease of 7,700 tons compared to the previous day [8]. 3.9 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary (May 28) - No detailed price information provided in the report. 3.10 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes (May 28) - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different manufacturers all increased by 100 yuan/ton [13]. 3.11 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in April 2025 - The planned production in April was 454,800 tons, the actual production was 450,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.18%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.20%, and a 0.97% shortfall compared to the plan. The capacity utilization rate was 83.15%, and the planned production in May was 444,100 tons [15]. 3.12 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (May 28) - Processing fees varied by region, with domestic regions mainly in the range of 3,200 - 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 30 - 50 dollars/kiloton [17]. 3.13 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table (May 28) - For the zn2507 contract, the total trading volume was 240,403 lots, a decrease of 225,028 lots compared to the previous day; the total long - position was 78,709 lots, a decrease of 410 lots; and the total short - position was 79,987 lots, an increase of 5,481 lots [19].

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is strongly bearish, with a consensus of "strong sell" across various indicators [2][5][7] - The moving averages indicate a consistent "sell" signal, with MA5 at 23363.2, MA10 at 23397.4, and MA20 at 23471.9 [4][5] - Technical indicators such as RSI(14) at 35.290 and MACD(12,26) at -69.700 further support the bearish outlook [5][6] Group 2 - The support and resistance levels are identified, with key support at 23116.6 and resistance at 23488.6 [7] - The market is experiencing low volatility as indicated by ATR(14) at 91.3214, while the ADX(14) shows a neutral trend at 17.864 [5][6] - The overall buy/sell ratio is heavily skewed towards selling, with 7 sell signals and no buy signals recorded [2][7]

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is strong buy, with 12 buy signals and 0 sell signals across various indicators [2][5]. - The moving averages indicate a consistent buy signal, with MA5 at 22849.1, MA10 at 22470.3, and MA20 at 21897.8, all suggesting a bullish trend [4][5]. - Technical indicators show a strong buy recommendation, with RSI at 62.389, MACD at 27.800, and CCI at 191.6985, indicating positive momentum [5][6]. Group 2 - Support and resistance levels are identified, with key support at 22448.7 and resistance at 23055.7, providing critical price points for traders [6]. - The market is currently experiencing low volatility, as indicated by an ATR of 509.4286, which may attract investors looking for stable conditions [5][6]. - The overall technical analysis reflects a bullish outlook, with multiple indicators confirming the strong buy sentiment [2][6].