投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 现实格局偏弱，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局有所走弱，库存拐点已现，建筑钢厂复产，螺纹供应延续回升且仍有增量空 间，低供应格局在变，压力开始增加。与此同时，螺纹钢需求表现偏弱，高频需求指标继续位于近 年来同期低位，且下游行业未改善，后续仍将季节性走弱，继而拖累钢价。总之，得益于商品偏暖 情绪，螺纹钢价格低位 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2026年1月05日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货23450，基差+70；中性。 3、库存：1月2日LME锌库存较上日减少1300吨至106325吨，12月31日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加32吨至42419吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡回落走势，收20日均线之 ...

2026.1.5-1.9 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周国内纯碱市场期货价格自低位震荡反弹，现货价格整体平稳。 行业库存延续去化，总库存环比下降2.22%至140.66万吨，其中重 碱去库较为明显。当前供需宽松格局未改，下游采购以刚需为主， 市场交投氛围偏淡。未来需重点关注新增产能投放进度及节前下游 补库需求对价格的影响。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 上周国内纯碱市场弱势整理，供需宽松格局未变。现货需求 疲软且成本支撑减弱，期货先跌后涨，但高库存与过剩压力 持续，短期延续震荡。 本周策略建议 相关数据情况 纯碱：开工率：中国（周） 纯碱：产量：中国（周） 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 纯碱：轻质：库存：中国（周） 纯碱：重质：库存：中国（周） 上周国内纯碱期货价格低位反弹，现货持稳。行业库存环比 下降，其中重碱去库明显。当前市场供需格局依然宽松，下 ...

01 P A R T 豆粕期货 2026.01.05-01.09 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 据Mysteel数据：第52周油厂大豆实际压榨量206.44万吨，开机率为 56.79%，豆粕库存116.76万吨。当前油厂维持高开机率，豆粕库存处于 历史高位，现货供应宽松及下游谨慎采购持续压制价格上方空间。然而 未来大豆到港节奏的不确定性及节前备货需求对价格形成阶段性提振。 预计豆粕期货价格在多空因素交织下维持震荡格局。 2 关注库存去化进度，南美天气，到港节奏。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏空。M2605短 期内预计延续震荡趋势，预计运行区间：2730-2850。 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏空。M2605短 期内预计处于弱势震荡阶段，预计运行区间：2700-2800。 趋势判断逻辑 品种诊断情况 | 豆粕(m) v < | | --- | | 品种诊断 机构观点 盈利 ...

＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：12月30日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2605 | 3130 | 3130 | 3148 | 3128 | 3134 | -0.10% | 635,547 | 1,560,806 | 30,014 | 0.70 | | HC2605 | 3287 | 3285 | 3298 | 3278 | 3282 | -0.33% | 311,439 | 1,283,319 | 7,022 | 0.12 | | SS2602 | 12910 | 12925 | 13200 | 12925 | 13090 | 1.28% | 181,552 | 88,597 | 4,096 | 0.48 | | ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：能化走强，尿素冲高回落 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 30 日 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1735 元/吨开盘, 平开高走，日内收涨。最 终收于 1743 元/吨，收成一根阳线，涨跌幅 0.46%，持仓量 204038 手（+9235 手）。主力合约前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头+5151 手，空头+9057 手。其 中，中信期货净多单+1222 手、广发期货净多单+1018 手；银河净空单+1797 手， 一德期货净空单+2549 手。 2025 年 12 月 30 日，尿素仓单数量 12381 张，环比上个交易日+1631 张，辽 宁化肥+21 张，铁岭东北丰（辉隆集团 UR）+845 张，东平津晖（辉隆集团 UR） +765 张。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 现货方面：现货市场延续下跌，但 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 30 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报 ...

2025.12.29-12.31 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第51周油厂大豆实际压榨量213.06万吨，开机率为 58.61%，豆粕库存113.71万吨。南美大豆丰产预期强烈，国内油厂开机 率维持高位，豆粕库存高企，饲料企业多以刚需补库为主。然而国内油 厂由于成本支撑和压榨利润不佳，挺价意愿较强，且春节前备货需求逐 步启动。综合来看，预计豆粕期货价格将处于震荡走势。 2 关注库存去化进度，南美天气，养殖需求。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面略微偏空。M2605短 期内预计延续震荡趋势，预计运行区间：2700-2800。 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏空。M2605短 期内预计延续震荡趋势，预计运行区间：2730-2850。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 本报告数据 ...

12月26日盘中，胶版印刷纸期货主力合约震荡上行，最高上探至4108.00元。截止收盘，胶版印刷纸主 力合约报4108.00元，涨幅1.48%。 胶版印刷纸期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 基本面看，供应端产能利用率微降至52.5%，但生产企业库存环比增至139.3万吨，供应充裕与需求疲软 的矛盾依旧。成本端受木浆价格上涨影响，纸厂亏损压力加剧。实际走势已突破原预测区间，短期强势 或延续，策略上可转为偏多思路，关注价格在4060附近能否站稳形成新支撑，上方压力参考前期高点。 风险在于高库存下需求若持续疲软，价格可能回踩确认支撑。 瑞达期货：双胶纸区间操作 供应端，本期双胶纸产量20.4万吨，较上期减少0.1万吨，降幅0.5%，产能利用率52.4%，较上期下降 0.1%。库存端，截至2025年12月25日，本期双胶纸生产企业库存139.5万吨，环比增幅0.1%。OP2602合 约建议下方关注3900附近支撑，上方4100附近压力，区间操作。 中原期货 胶版印刷纸短期强势或延续 瑞达期货（002961） 双胶纸区间操作 中原期货：胶版印刷纸短期强势或延续 机构 核心观点 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and daily moving average, the report predicts the market trends of various futures contracts on December 26, 2025, and the overall trends in December 2025. Some futures are expected to reach new highs since their listing [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - For December 23, 2025, the main contracts of stock index futures (IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, IM2603) are expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. Gold (AU2602), silver (AG2602), platinum (PT2606), copper (CU2602), and polysilicon (PS2605) are expected to reach new highs since their listing. Silver, platinum, palladium (PD2606), and polysilicon are expected to have a strong - biased oscillation, while gold, copper, nickel (NI2602), and soybean meal (M2605) are expected to have a strong - biased oscillation [2]. - For December 2025, the main continuous contracts of stock index futures are expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. Gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper, and polysilicon are expected to reach new highs since their listing and have a strong - biased oscillation [5]. Macro News and Trading Tips - The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee studied and deployed the work of improving Party conduct, building a clean government, and combating corruption in 2026. The central bank continued to conduct MLF and outright reverse repurchase operations in December, releasing 300 billion yuan of medium - and long - term liquidity [6]. - The Ministry of Commerce opposed the US imposing 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products. The public security departments of China, Myanmar, and Thailand carried out a new round of operations to crack down on gambling and fraud dens in Myanmar [6]. - The Ministry of Finance and eight other departments formulated and issued the guidelines for corporate climate information disclosure. On December 25, the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the "7" integer mark for the first time in 15 months [7]. Commodity Futures - Related Information - Most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with new energy materials leading the gains. The polysilicon futures rose 4.8%. Precious metal futures showed mixed trends, with platinum rising 4.51%, palladium falling 7.65%, silver rising 2.64%, and gold falling 0.39% [7]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the minimum opening order quantity for platinum and palladium futures contracts and polysilicon futures contracts, and set a limit on the daily opening volume [8]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Stock Index Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contracts of stock index futures (IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, IM2603) showed a small - scale upward trend. The A - share market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording seven consecutive positive days [9][10][11]. - It is expected that in December 2025, the main contracts of stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) will have a strong - biased oscillation. On December 26, 2025, stock index futures are expected to have a strong - biased oscillation [11][12]. Gold Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of gold futures (AU2602) fell. It is expected that in December 2025, the main continuous contract of gold futures will have a strong - biased wide - range oscillation and reach a new high since its listing. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of gold futures is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation and reach a new high since its listing [30]. Silver Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of silver futures (AG2602) showed a mixed trend. It is expected that in December 2025, the main continuous contract of silver futures will have a strong - biased oscillation and reach a new high since its listing. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of silver futures is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation and reach a new high since its listing [33]. Platinum Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of platinum futures (PT2606) rose. It is expected that in December 2025, the main continuous contract of platinum futures will have a strong - biased oscillation and reach a new high since its listing. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of platinum futures is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation and is likely to close at the daily limit [37]. Palladium Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of palladium futures (PD2606) fell sharply. It is expected that in December 2025, the main continuous contract of palladium futures will have a strong - biased oscillation and reach a new high since its listing. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of palladium futures is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation [39]. Copper Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of copper futures (CU2602) rose slightly. It is expected that in December 2025, the main continuous contract of copper futures will have a strong - biased oscillation and reach a new high since its listing. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of copper futures is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation and reach a new high since its listing [44]. Nickel Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of nickel futures (NI2602) fell. It is expected that in December 2025, the main continuous contract of nickel futures will have a strong - biased oscillation. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of nickel futures is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation [50]. Tin Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of tin futures (SN2602) fell. It is expected that in December 2025, the main continuous contract of tin futures will have a strong - biased oscillation. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of tin futures is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation [56]. Polysilicon Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of polysilicon futures (PS2605) rose. It is expected that in December 2025, the main continuous contract of polysilicon futures will have a strong - biased oscillation and reach a new high since its listing. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of polysilicon futures is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation and reach a new high since its listing [60]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures (LC2605) fell. It is expected that in December 2025, the main continuous contract of lithium carbonate futures will have a strong - biased oscillation. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures is expected to have a wide - range oscillation [64]. Rebar Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of rebar futures (RB2605) showed a small - scale downward trend. It is expected that in December 2025, the main contract of rebar futures will have a wide - range oscillation. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of rebar futures is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [66]. Hot - Rolled Coil Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures (HC2605) showed a small - scale downward trend. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [72]. Iron Ore Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of iron ore futures (I2605) showed a small - scale downward trend. It is expected that in December 2025, the main contract of iron ore futures will have a wide - range oscillation. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of iron ore futures is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [74]. Coking Coal Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of coking coal futures (JM2605) showed a small - scale downward trend. It is expected that in December 2025, the main contract of coking coal futures will have a weak - wide - range oscillation. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of coking coal futures is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [77][78]. PTA Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of PTA futures (TA605) rose. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of PTA futures is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation [81]. PVC Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of PVC futures (V2605) showed a small - scale downward trend. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of PVC futures is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [83]. Soybean Meal Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of soybean meal futures (M2605) rose. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of soybean meal futures is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation [85].