Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research variety: Soda ash - Report cycle: Daily report - Date of composition: July 23, 2025 [1] 2. Futures Market 2.1 Contract Quotes - On July 23, 2025, the soda ash futures faced pressure and pulled back. The opening price of Soda Ash 2509 (SA509) was 1376 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1394 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1300 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1338 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 3.307 billion hands, an increase of 197 million hands from the previous day, and the open interest was 1.037 billion hands, a decrease of 37.3 million hands from the previous day [2] 2.2 Variety Prices - The report provides the opening and highest prices of Soda Ash 2508, Soda Ash 2509, and Soda Ash 2601 contracts on July 23, 2025 [5] 3. Spot Market - The report presents the domestic soda ash price summary table on July 23, 2025, showing price changes compared to July 22, 2025 [6] 4. Influencing Factors 4.1 Policy - related - Policy expectations such as the steady - growth plan for the building materials industry and the "city - specific policies" in the real estate sector, combined with low inventory, have driven market sentiment up [7] 4.2 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The weekly output was 568,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.61%. However, summer maintenance led to supply contraction, and the release progress of new capacity from Yuanxing was slower than expected. - Demand side: The daily melting volume of float glass was 168,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.76%, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash procurement increased [8] 4.3 Technical Analysis - The price of the Soda Ash 2509 (SA509) contract deviated from the 5 - day moving average today, and there may be a need for technical repair. However, the trend indicator still maintained a bullish signal, indicating that the short - term trend is still upward, but the repair demand may cause the price to pull back to some extent [9] 5. Market Outlook - The current soda ash futures price may be supported by policies and maintenance factors and remain in a relatively strong state. In the long run, Yuanxing's second - phase 2.8 million - ton capacity is expected to be put into production in August, which will increase market supply, and the soda ash futures price may face valuation pressure. In addition, if the inventory inflection point appears, that is, the inventory starts to rise, it may also lead to a price pullback. Traders need to beware of the short - selling risk brought about by the accelerated release of Yuanxing's capacity or the increase in inventory [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Based on macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trend of today's futures main contracts. Most contracts are expected to show a strong or weak shock trend, with specific resistance and support levels provided for each contract [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Forecast Highlights - Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4090 and 4122 points and support levels at 4065 and 4046 points [2]. - Ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bond futures are likely to fluctuate weakly. The ten - year T2509 has support at 108.65 and 108.60 yuan and resistance at 108.79 and 108.83 yuan; the thirty - year TL2509 has support at 119.7 and 119.5 yuan and resistance at 120.1 and 120.3 yuan [3]. - Gold and silver futures are expected to fluctuate strongly. Silver futures may hit a new high since listing. Gold futures AU2510 has resistance at 789.9 and 794.9 yuan/gram and support at 783.5 and 781.8 yuan/gram; silver futures AG2510 has resistance at 9450 and 9500 yuan/kg and support at 9300 and 9273 yuan/kg [3]. - Base metal futures such as copper, aluminum, and zinc generally show a strong or wide - range shock trend, with corresponding resistance and support levels provided [3][4]. - Industrial product futures like industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and coke are expected to fluctuate strongly, while some contracts like glass and soda ash are also predicted to have a strong shock trend [4][5]. - Energy futures: Crude oil futures are likely to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract SC2509 having support at 502 and 500 yuan/barrel and resistance at 512 and 516 yuan/barrel [7]. - Agricultural product futures: Soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate weakly, and natural rubber futures are likely to fluctuate strongly [8]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen will visit China on July 24. President Xi Jinping will meet them, and Premier Li Qiang will co - host the 25th China - EU Leaders' Meeting [9]. - The "Housing Rental Regulations" will come into effect on September 15, 2025, aiming to standardize the housing rental market [9]. - China's July LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month. The 1 - year variety is reported at 3.0%, and the over - 5 - year variety is at 3.5%. Market institutions expect a further decline in the second half of the year [9]. - The first half of 2025 saw stable and positive economic performance. Fiscal policy will continue to play a proactive role in the second half of the year [10]. - The EU's sanctions list against Chinese enterprises and financial institutions has been responded to by China, which urges the EU to stop the wrong practice [10]. - The total electricity consumption in June was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The cumulative electricity consumption from January to June was 4841.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [10]. - The pilot rules for cross - border asset management in the Hainan Free Trade Port have been released, with an initial pilot scale limit of 10 billion yuan [10]. - In the 27th Japanese Senate election, the ruling coalition lost its majority in the Senate. Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru will continue to serve, but the opposition may propose a no - confidence motion [11]. - Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of US industries in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to policy risks [11]. - The "OBBBA" bill passed by the Trump administration will increase the US fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [11]. - The EU may hold a meeting this week to prepare for the situation of failing to reach a trade agreement with the US and may use the "anti - coercion tool" [12]. - The EU is formulating a new bill requiring large enterprises and car rental companies to switch to electric vehicle procurement from 2030, which will affect about 60% of new car sales in the EU [12]. - Hungary is in talks with Serbia and Russia to build a new oil pipeline, which is expected to be operational in 2027 [13]. - The UK government has launched a public consultation on the licensing plan for autonomous passenger services, aiming for the launch of autonomous taxis and other services in spring 2026 [13]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced that the listing benchmark price of the first - batch of propylene futures contracts on July 22 is 6350 yuan/ton [13]. - In June, global alumina production was 6.045 million tons. China's alumina production is expected to be 3.625 million tons [13]. - On July 21, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.55% and COMEX silver futures up 2.02%. International oil prices slightly declined [14]. - On July 21, London base metals closed higher across the board. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 2 points, and the central parity rate was down 24 points [14][15]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Stock Index Futures - On July 21, the CSI 300 stock index futures main contract IF2509 opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and closed at 4064.8 points, up 0.73%. It approached the resistance at 4070 points [15]. - The Shanghai 50 stock index futures main contract IH2509 opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly stronger, and closed at 2771.2 points, up 0.29% [16]. - The CSI 500 stock index futures main contract IC2509 opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and closed at 6055.6 points, up 1.04%. It broke through the 6050 - point resistance [16]. - The CSI 1000 stock index futures main contract IM2509 opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and closed at 6453.2 points, up 0.93%. It broke through the 6460 - point resistance [17]. - The stock market on July 21 showed a positive trend, with most indexes rising. The A - share trading volume increased to 1.73 trillion yuan [18]. - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index closed up 0.68%, and the number of IPOs and fundraising amount increased significantly [19]. - US and European stock markets showed mixed trends on July 21. The report predicts that stock index futures will fluctuate strongly in July 2025 and on July 22, with specific resistance and support levels provided [19][20][21]. Treasury Bond Futures - On July 21, the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2509 opened lower, fluctuated weakly, and closed at 108.760 yuan, down 0.05%. The 30 - year main contract also declined [38]. - The central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 21, with a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan [38]. - The report predicts that the ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bond futures will fluctuate weakly on July 22, with specific support and resistance levels [39][43]. Precious Metal Futures - On July 21, the gold futures main contract AU2510 opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and closed at 781.70 yuan/gram, up 0.82%. It is expected to fluctuate widely in July 2025 and strongly on July 22 [43][44]. - The silver futures main contract AG2510 opened slightly higher, fluctuated weakly on July 21, but showed strong upward momentum in the night session. It is expected to break through new highs on July 22 and fluctuate strongly in July 2025 [50][52]. Base Metal Futures - On July 21, copper, aluminum, zinc, and other base metal futures generally showed upward trends. The report provides their closing prices, price changes, and resistance and support levels, as well as the expected trends in July 2025 and on July 22 [57][61][71]. Industrial Product Futures - Industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and other industrial product futures showed strong upward trends on July 21. The report predicts their trends on July 22, including the likelihood of approaching resistance levels or breaking through [80][81]. Energy Futures - On July 21, the crude oil futures main contract SC2509 opened slightly higher, fluctuated downward, and closed at 512.3 yuan/barrel, up 0.23% (down 0.68% based on the closing price). It is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 22 and strongly and widely in July 2025 [106]. Agricultural Product Futures - On July 21, soybean meal and natural rubber futures showed upward trends. The report predicts that soybean meal futures will fluctuate weakly on July 22, while natural rubber futures will fluctuate strongly [116][118].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Bean Meal, Soybean Oil Futures Variety Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: July 21 - July 25, 2025 [1] Group 2: Bean Meal Futures 2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The main bean meal contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase [7] - Trend Logic: In the 28th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52%. Bean meal inventory was 886,200 tons, an increase of 63,800 tons or 7.76% from the previous week. High domestic soybean arrivals and hot weather keep oil mills at high operating rates. Downstream feed enterprises adopt a strategy of appropriate low - price purchases, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. However, favorable US soybean export policies and high Brazilian soybean premiums drive up import costs. There is also significant uncertainty in Sino - US trade relations. Overall, bean meal futures are expected to continue wide - range oscillations [7] - Mid - term Strategy: Pay attention to the support level in the range of 2920 - 2950 [7] 2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The overall trend of bean meal futures prices was in a sideways phase, with strongly bearish funds. M2509 was expected to continue oscillating, with an expected operating range of 2880 - 3080 [10] - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: The overall trend of bean meal futures prices is in an upward channel, with strongly bullish funds. M2509 is expected to be oscillating and bullish in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2920 - 3150 [11] 2.3 Variety Diagnosis - Bull - Bear Flow: The main force is strongly bullish, with an indicator of 94.7 [15] - Fund Energy: Funds are basically stable, with an indicator of - 16.7 [15] - Bull - Bear Disagreement: There is a high risk of a market reversal, with an indicator of 99.5 [15] 2.4 Related Data - Data includes bean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [20][22][25] Group 3: Soybean Oil Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The main soybean oil contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase [31] - Trend Logic: According to Mysteel data, in the 28th week, the actual soybean oil output of 125 oil mills was 436,100 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.0494 million tons, an increase of 297,000 tons from the previous week. High soybean arrivals and high crushing volumes, combined with the off - season of terminal consumption, result in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern in the soybean oil market. However, competing oils such as palm oil are relatively strong. The expected consumption increase from biodiesel policies and the strengthening of Brazilian soybean premiums provide cost - side support. Overall, soybean oil futures prices are in a wide - range oscillation and consolidation phase [31] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in a sideways phase, with relatively bearish funds. Y2509 was expected to maintain wide - range oscillation and consolidation in the short term, with an expected operating range of 7800 - 8100 [34] - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in an upward channel, with relatively bullish funds. Y2509 is expected to maintain a bullish operation in the short term, with an expected operating range of 7950 - 8300 [34] 3.3 Related Data - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrivals, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [42][44][48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber futures 2509 and synthetic rubber futures 2509 are expected to run strongly on July 19, 2025, with Shanghai rubber showing a short - term upward trend and a mid - term and intraday strong - oscillating trend, while synthetic rubber shows a short - term and intraday strong - oscillating trend and a mid - term oscillating trend [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Situation**: The supply side of the rubber market is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and high monthly output pressure. The downstream demand is weak, with the growth rate of tire production and sales slowing down, and the terminal demand entering the off - season [5]. - **Driving Factors**: After the previous negative expectations were digested, the meteorological forecast of a typhoon hitting Hainan Island and the Leizhou Peninsula on July 21, 2025, increased the expectation of production reduction, boosting the rubber price. On the night of July 18, 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed up 2.16% to 14,885 yuan/ton [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that on July 19, 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract will maintain a strong - oscillating trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Situation**: The operating loads of some private butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have increased slightly, driving up the production and capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber. The downstream demand is weak, with the growth rate of tire production and sales slowing down, and the terminal demand entering the off - season [7]. - **Driving Factors**: After the rubber price correction digested the negative factors, supported by the strength of Shanghai rubber and a bullish atmosphere, on the night of July 18, 2025, the synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract showed a strong - oscillating trend, with the futures price closing up 1.52% to 11,655 yuan/ton [7]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that on July 19, 2025, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract will maintain a strong - oscillating trend [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on July 17, 2025, including whether they will be in a strong - side or weak - side oscillation, along with their respective resistance and support levels [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be in a strong - side oscillation on July 17. For example, IF2509 has resistance at 4000 and 4020 points and support at 3952 and 3940 points; IH2509 has resistance at 2750 and 2763 points and support at 2716 and 2703 points; IC2509 has resistance at 5965 and 6000 points and support at 5860 and 5829 points; IM2509 has resistance at 6360 and 6400 points and support at 6260 and 6216 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to oscillate and consolidate. T2509 has resistance at 108.92 and 109.00 yuan and support at 108.74 and 108.55 yuan; TL2509 has resistance at 121.0 and 121.2 yuan and support at 120.6 and 120.4 yuan [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold AU2510 and silver AG2510 are likely to oscillate and consolidate. AU2510 will accumulate strength to attack resistance at 781.8 and 786.8 yuan/gram with support at 773.8 and 771.8 yuan/gram; AG2510 has resistance at 9207 and 9267 yuan/kg and support at 9088 and 9061 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper CU2508, aluminum AL2509, and zinc ZN2509 are likely to oscillate and consolidate. CU2508 has support at 77700 and 77500 yuan/ton and resistance at 78100 and 78400 yuan/ton; AL2509 has support at 20300 and 20230 yuan/ton and resistance at 20490 and 20600 yuan/ton; ZN2509 is likely to be in a strong - side oscillation, attacking resistance at 22100 and 22190 yuan/ton with support at 21950 and 21930 yuan/ton. Alumina AO2509 is likely to be in a weak - side oscillation, with support at 3046 and 3028 yuan/ton and resistance at 3138 and 3158 yuan/ton. Nickel NI2508 is likely to be in a weak - side oscillation, with support at 119100 and 118700 yuan/ton and resistance at 119900 and 120200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industrial and Energy Futures**: Industrial silicon SI2509, polysilicon PS2508, and lithium carbonate LC2509 are likely to be in a strong - side oscillation. SI2509 will attack resistance at 8790 and 8880 yuan/ton with support at 8600 and 8520 yuan/ton; PS2508 will attack resistance at 43250 and 44600 yuan/ton with support at 42360 and 41760 yuan/ton; LC2509 will attack resistance at 67700 and 68400 yuan/ton with support at 65500 and 65000 yuan/ton. Crude oil SC2508 is likely to be in a weak - side oscillation, with support at 508 and 505 yuan/barrel and resistance at 523 and 528 yuan/barrel. Fuel oil FU2509 and PTA TA509 are likely to be in a weak - side oscillation. FU2509 will test support at 2824 and 2800 yuan/ton with resistance at 2883 and 2911 yuan/ton; TA509 will test support at 4664 and 4644 yuan/ton with resistance at 4728 and 4754 yuan/ton [3][4][6]. - **Agricultural and Building Material Futures**: Rebar RB2510, hot - rolled coil HC2510, iron ore I2509, coking coal JM2509, glass FG509, soda ash SA509, caustic soda SH509, PVC V2509, and soybean meal M2509 are likely to be in a strong - side oscillation. For example, RB2510 will attack resistance at 3138 and 3149 yuan/ton with support at 3104 and 3094 yuan/ton; HC2510 will attack resistance at 3299 and 3320 yuan/ton with support at 3253 and 3247 yuan/ton. Natural rubber RU2509 is likely to be in a strong - side oscillation, with resistance at 14570 and 14710 yuan/ton and support at 14450 and 14320 yuan/ton [4][6][7]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - **Domestic Macro News**: The State Council held a meeting to study policies for strengthening the domestic cycle, heard reports on the new energy vehicle industry and budget audit rectification, and passed a draft amendment to a regulation on foreigners' entry and exit. The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand. The Third China International Supply - Chain Promotion Expo opened, and the Ministry of Commerce proposed high - level opening - up and implemented a policy on tax credit for foreign investors' reinvestment. The Ministry of Public Security aimed to combat intellectual property crimes, and the State Administration for Market Regulation piloted the decentralization of administrative approval for national secondary standard substances. China and Australia signed a memorandum on the implementation and review of the free - trade agreement [8][9][10]. - **International Macro News**: Trump made statements about the Fed chair, tariff policies, and trade agreements. The US June PPI was flat month - on - month, and the core PPI also showed a small increase. Trump planned to issue an executive order to promote pension investment in the private market. The Fed's "Beige Book" showed a slight increase in economic activity with high uncertainty. The US launched a 301 investigation against Brazil, and Mexico opposed US tomato tariffs. The UK June CPI increased, raising concerns about the central bank's interest - rate policy [11][12][13]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - **International Futures Market**: On July 16, international precious - metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 0.52% to 3354.20 dollars/ounce and COMEX silver up 0.04% to 38.13 dollars/ounce. International oil prices oscillated narrowly, with US crude up 0.18% to 66.64 dollars/barrel and Brent down 0.03% to 68.69 dollars/barrel. London base - metal futures mostly fell, showing an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [13]. - **Exchange - Rate Information**: On July 16, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 42 points at 7.1776, and the offshore RMB closed up 44 points at 7.1802. The US dollar index fell 0.35% to 98.29, and non - US currencies mostly rose [14][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on July 16, 2025. Index futures are expected to fluctuate and consolidate; gold, silver, rebar, and crude oil futures are likely to experience weak fluctuations; industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures are anticipated to have strong and wide - range fluctuations; container shipping index (European Line) futures are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias; nickel and soybean meal futures are likely to have strong fluctuations [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: On July 16, 2025, IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Resistance and support levels are provided for each contract [2][19]. - **Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The T2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a strong - biased fluctuation, with resistance at 109.00 and 109.06 yuan and support at 108.83 and 108.74 yuan [2][38]. - **Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The TL2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a strong - biased fluctuation, with resistance at 121.0 and 121.2 yuan and support at 120.6 and 120.4 yuan [2][42]. - **Gold Futures**: The AU2510 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 773.8 and 768.7 yuan/gram, with resistance at 780.4 and 781.8 yuan/gram [2][45]. - **Silver Futures**: The AG2510 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 9088 and 9040 yuan/kg, with resistance at 9207 and 9267 yuan/kg [3][49]. - **Copper Futures**: The CU2508 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with support at 77700 and 77500 yuan/ton and resistance at 78100 and 78400 yuan/ton [3][52]. - **Alumina Futures**: The AO2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 3117 and 3100 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3187 and 3208 yuan/ton [3][57]. - **Zinc Futures**: The ZN2508 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 22000 and 21860 yuan/ton, with resistance at 22090 and 22130 yuan/ton [3][60]. - **Nickel Futures**: The NI2508 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a strong fluctuation and may attack resistance at 121500 and 122300 yuan/ton, with support at 119600 and 119400 yuan/ton [3][66]. - **Industrial Silicon Futures**: The SI2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation and may attack resistance at 8900 and 9000 yuan/ton, with support at 8740 and 8620 yuan/ton [3][69]. - **Polysilicon Futures**: The PS2508 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation and may attack resistance at 43250 and 44600 yuan/ton, with support at 42360 and 41760 yuan/ton [3][71]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The LC2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation and may accumulate strength to attack resistance at 68400 and 69000 yuan/ton, with support at 66000 and 64200 yuan/ton [4][73]. - **Rebar Futures**: The RB2510 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 3100 and 3085 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3121 and 3131 yuan/ton [4][76]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: The HC2510 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 3238 and 3225 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3259 and 3273 yuan/ton [6][82]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: The I2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate and may accumulate strength to attack resistance at 770 and 777 yuan/ton, with support at 760 and 755 yuan/ton [6][83]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: The JM2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 900 and 890 yuan/ton, with resistance at 920 and 928 yuan/ton [6][92]. - **Glass Futures**: The FG509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance at 1078 and 1084 yuan/ton and support at 1057 and 1048 yuan/ton [6][92]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: The SA509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance at 1231 and 1241 yuan/ton and support at 1200 and 1194 yuan/ton [6][95]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: The SC2508 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 514 and 511 yuan/barrel, with resistance at 523 and 528 yuan/barrel [6][97]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: The FU2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a strong fluctuation and may attack resistance at 2883 and 2911 yuan/ton, with support at 2840 and 2824 yuan/ton [7][103]. - **PTA Futures**: The TA509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with support at 4686 and 4664 yuan/ton and resistance at 4728 and 4760 yuan/ton [7][103]. - **PVC Futures**: The V2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 4950 and 4925 yuan/ton, with resistance at 4977 and 5000 yuan/ton [7][105]. - **Methanol Futures**: The MA509 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 2359 and 2336 yuan/ton, with resistance at 2400 and 2413 yuan/ton [7][107]. - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The M2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a strong fluctuation and may attack resistance at 3001 and 3004 yuan/ton, with support at 2974 and 2960 yuan/ton [7][109]. - **Natural Rubber Futures**: The RU2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance at 14570 and 14710 yuan/ton and support at 14320 and 14220 yuan/ton [7][111]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures**: The EC2510 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias and may attack resistance at 1802 and 1888 points, with support at 1640 and 1600 points [7][113]. 2. Macro - information and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: Important articles by General Secretary Xi Jinping were published in Qiushi Journal; Premier Li Qiang held the 10th China - Australia Prime Minister's Annual Meeting; the Central Urban Work Conference was held; China's semi - annual economic report showed GDP growth of 5.3% in H1 2025; housing prices in various cities showed different trends; China adjusted the catalog of prohibited and restricted export technologies; domestic refined oil prices were adjusted; the 3rd China International Supply Chain Expo opened [8][9][10]. - **International News**: Trump reached an agreement with Indonesia; US CPI in June 2025 rose 2.7% year - on - year; the selection process for the next Fed Chairman started; the EU may postpone trade counter - measures; the EU failed to reach an agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia; NVIDIA will resume selling H20 chips in China [10][11][12]. 3. Commodity Futures - related Information - On July 15, 2025, international precious metal futures generally closed down, with COMEX gold down 0.85% and COMEX silver down 1.95%. International oil prices slightly declined, with US oil down 0.34% and Brent crude down 0.52%. London base metals mostly fell, except for copper which rose 0.40%. OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast. China's industrial output of coal, oil, and gas increased in June 2025. The RMB exchange rate and the US dollar index showed certain trends. Investors considered shorting the US dollar the most crowded trade [12][13][14]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On July 15, 2025, IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 showed different trends, generally with a slight decline and weakening upward momentum. It is expected that in July 2025, these contracts will fluctuate with an upward bias [15][16][18]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures showed an upward trend. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the money market showed certain changes. It is expected that on July 16, 2025, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will have a strong - biased fluctuation [36][37][42]. - **Other Futures**: Each futures contract showed different trends on July 15, 2025, and the report provides corresponding price range forecasts for July 16, 2025, and some also for July 2025 [45][49][52].

7月14日，国内期市有色金属板块涨幅居前。其中，工业硅期货主力合约开盘报8460.0元/吨，今日盘中 高位震荡运行；截至发稿，工业硅主力最高触及8740.0元，下方探低8350.0元，涨幅达2.85%附近。 目前来看，工业硅行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于工业硅后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 广州期货指出，反内卷效果显著，下游多晶硅大幅上调报价，其利润得到明显修复，市场预期对原料工 业硅采购压价情绪或有所缓解，进而带动工业硅市场情绪改善，在库存压力并未进一步增加情况下，短 期或仍有支撑。但西南丰水期背景下，后续南方工厂套保意愿或逐步增强，对反弹高度存在压制。策略 上，波段操作思路，主力合约参考区间（8000，9000）。 中辉期货表示，强预期VS弱现实，成本端焦煤反弹对工业硅形成支撑。基本面尚未出现实质性改善， 高库存压制上方反弹空间。价格波动剧烈谨慎追涨【8240-8550】。 瑞达期货（002961）分析称，从供应端来看，本期工业硅现货价格大幅上行，当前西北伊犁地区的化肥 补贴政策仍保持稳定执行，暂无显著调整；大型生产企业未传出减产或停产的相关消息。西南区域生产 成本有所下降，其中保 ...

Group 1: Corn Market Analysis - The long-term outlook for corn is a range-bound operation, with medium-term strategies suggesting buying on dips, while short-term auctions continue with prices seeking support [1] - Short-term auction transaction rates for imported corn are declining, and the premium is narrowing, indicating weak bullish expectations in the spot market [1] - Medium-term supply may tighten due to reduced imports and substitutes, but price increases are limited by narrowing price differentials and increased wheat substitution [1] - Long-term price limitations are expected from policy grain releases and wheat substitution, with a focus on import substitution and planting cost pricing [1] - Strategy suggests support levels for the 2509 contract at 2300 - 2320, with potential for wave trading on effective support [1] Group 2: Live Pig Market Analysis - The long-term outlook for live pigs is bearish, with medium-term expectations of a range-bound market and short-term rebounds facing resistance [1] - Short-term market conditions show both support and resistance, leading to price fluctuations [1] - Medium-term supply may increase due to a rise in new piglets and limited declines in slaughter weights, making price increases challenging [1] - Long-term production capacity is expected to be realized due to high breeding sow inventory and improved production efficiency [1] - Strategy indicates first resistance for the 2509 contract at 14400 - 14600 and second resistance at 14800 - 15000, with attention to 13800 resistance for the 2511 contract [1] Group 3: Egg Market Analysis - The egg price may confirm a phase of bottoming out, with futures trading based on basis logic [1] - Short-term supply remains stable, limiting downside potential and suggesting a confirmation of the bottom [1] - Medium-term expectations include a rebound in spot prices during the peak season in August-September, influenced by culling rates [1] - Long-term projections indicate a return to profitability for breeding in Q3, with potential supply pressures in Q4 leading to price declines [1] - Strategy suggests initial upward pressure on main contracts, with resistance levels for the 08 contract at 3600 - 3650 and support at 3400 - 3450, while the 09 contract faces resistance at 3700 - 3720 and support at 3500 - 3550 [1]

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【玉米、生猪、鸡蛋期货行情分析及策略建议】玉米期货方面，长线呈区间运行，中线适合低多思路。 短期进口玉米拍卖持续，成交率降低、溢价幅度缩小，现货市场看涨预期减弱，整体弱稳。中期进口谷 物缩量和替代减量，国内供给宽松格局或趋紧，价格重心偏强，但玉米价差收窄、小麦替代增加，上方 空间不宜乐观。长期政策粮源投放和小麦替代限制价格，维持进口替代和种植成本定价逻辑，关注政策 导向。策略上，2509合约支撑关注2300 - 2320，有效可波段做多。生猪期货，长线宜高空，中线呈区间 运行，短线反弹试探压力。短期猪价震荡，中期2 - 5月新生仔猪增加，出栏体重降幅有限，供给增量预 期仍在，上涨难。长期能繁母猪存栏高于正常，生产效率提升，全年产能将持续兑现。策略上，2509合 约第一压力14400 - 14600，第二压力14800 - 15000；2511合约关注13800压力。鸡蛋期货，蛋价或确认 阶段性底部，按基差逻辑交易。短期供给稳定，下跌空间有限。中期集中淘汰和中秋旺季或使8 - 9月现 货反弹，高点取决于淘鸡节奏。长期若三季度养殖利润转正，四季度供给压力 ...

Report Date - The report is dated July 10, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on July 10, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, and commodity futures [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation on July 10, 2025. For example, IF2509 has resistance at 3978 and 4000 points and support at 3940 and 3930 points [2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to oscillate and consolidate on July 10, 2025 [2][33] - **Commodity Futures**: Gold, aluminum, industrial silicon, etc. are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation; silver and soybean meal are expected to be in a weak - biased oscillation on July 10, 2025 [1][2] Macro News and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: China's June CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and core CPI continued to rise. New employment - stabilizing policies were introduced, and market supervision strengthened fair competition [8][9] - **International News**: Trump proposed tariff increases on multiple countries. The Fed showed differences in interest rate outlooks, and the EU prepared counter - measures against the US in trade disputes [9][10] Commodity Futures - Related Information - **Precious Metals**: On July 9, COMEX gold futures rose 0.17%, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.39% [11] - **Crude Oil**: On July 9, US crude oil and Brent crude oil futures prices declined slightly, and US EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased [11] - **Base Metals**: On July 9, LME copper futures fell 1.33%, and LME zinc and aluminum futures rose [11] Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 9, 2025, major stock index futures contracts showed a downward trend with weakened upward momentum and increased downward pressure. It is expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation in July [12][13][18] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 9, 2025, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The ten - year and thirty - year futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate on July 10 [33][38] - **Commodity Futures**: Different commodity futures showed different trends on July 9, 2025, and their trends on July 10 are predicted, such as gold futures being in a strong - biased oscillation and silver futures being in a weak - biased oscillation [41][46]