Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being volatile, volatile, and volatile - bullish respectively [1][5]. - The methanol market is dominated by a weak supply - demand structure, but due to the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices and improved macro factors, the weak industrial factors are suppressed, and the methanol futures contract 2601 may maintain a volatile - bullish trend on Monday [5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Conditions - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract closed slightly up 0.79% to 2429 yuan/ton on the night of last Friday [5]. Market Logic - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the methanol market returns to being dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, and downstream demand is in the off - season, leading to a downward price trend [5]. - The sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices and improved macro factors suppress the weak industrial factors, resulting in a volatile - bullish trend of the methanol futures 2601 contract [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - weak respectively [1][5]. - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad remains high, and downstream demand is in the off - season, leading to a downward shift in the price center [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Methanol 2601 Trends - Short - term: Oscillatory [1] - Medium - term: Oscillatory [1] - Intraday: Oscillatory - weak [1][5] Price Calculation and Movement Definition - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The end price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% is oscillatory - weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillatory - strong, and a rise greater than 1% is a rise. Oscillatory - strong/weak only applies to intraday views [3][4]. Price and Market Analysis of Methanol (MA) - Driven by a weak supply - demand structure, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract closed 0.08% lower at 2417 yuan/ton on Thursday night, and is expected to maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Friday [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures on August 20, 2025, including that stock index futures will oscillate and consolidate, while some commodity futures like coking coal, glass, and soda ash futures will oscillate weakly, and industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures will have a weakly wide - range oscillation [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate on August 20. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 [2][19]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures主力 contracts T2509 and TL2509 are likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold and silver futures主力 contracts AU2510 and AG2510 are likely to oscillate weakly [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, aluminum, alumina, etc. futures主力 contracts are likely to oscillate weakly [3]. - **Industrial and Energy Futures**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, etc. futures主力 contracts are likely to have a weakly wide - range oscillation; coking coal, glass, and soda ash futures主力 contracts are likely to oscillate weakly [1][3]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, etc. futures主力 contracts are likely to oscillate weakly [7]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - **Domestic Information**: In July, China's general public budget revenue increased year - on - year; relevant meetings emphasized promoting consumer policies; the central bank increased re - loan quotas; unemployment rates of different age groups were announced; new regulations on personal pension were introduced; and the LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse was inaugurated [8][11]. - **International Information**: The US expanded steel and aluminum tariff lists, which is negative for related commodity futures; the US and Japan planned investment consultations; the US new home starts increased; the US credit rating was confirmed; and a Japanese politician called for interest rate hikes [9][10][11]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 19, the stock index futures主力 contracts generally had weak trends, with short - term upward momentum weakening and downward pressure increasing. The A - share market was weak, but the two - margin balance continued to rise, and foreign institutions were optimistic about the Chinese stock market [13][14][15][16][17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 19, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures主力 contracts had small rebounds, and the central bank conducted large - scale reverse repurchase operations [37][41]. - **Commodity Futures**: Different commodity futures主力 contracts had different trends on August 19, and their trends on August 20 were predicted based on technical and fundamental analysis [44][51][70][71][74][79][83][87][91][94][100][104][106][108][110][112][114][117].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation, and an intraday view of oscillation on the weaker side [1][5]. - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the methanol market is dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure at home and abroad remains high, and downstream demand is in the off - season, leading to a downward shift in the price center [5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Time - cycle and View - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation on the weaker side, with an overall view of weak operation [1]. Price and Market Performance - Last Friday night, the price of the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract slightly decreased by 0.86% to 2409 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillation - on - the - weaker - side trend on Monday [5]. Core Logic - The methanol market has returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. High supply pressure at home and abroad and off - season downstream demand lead to a weak supply - demand structure and a downward - moving price center [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol market is expected to run weakly, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of being volatile, volatile, and volatile and weak respectively. The price of the methanol 2601 futures contract is likely to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Friday [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Trends - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract closed slightly 0.69% lower at 2442 yuan/ton on Thursday night [5]. Core Logic - With the weakening of the previous macro - driving force, the methanol market has returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad remains high, and downstream demand is in the off - season, leading to a downward shift in the price center [5]. - The domestic coal futures price is in a volatile and weak trend, which also affects the methanol market [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the price trends and support/resistance levels of various futures on August 14, 2025, including index futures, bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural futures [2][3][4][5][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Overview - On August 13, domestic commodity futures closed with mixed results. Some commodities like rapeseed oil, soybean meal, etc. rose, while container shipping to Europe, industrial silicon, etc. declined. International markets showed that COMEX gold futures rose, international oil prices fell, and most LME base metals declined. The U.S. dollar index fell, and the RMB exchange rate had mixed performance [14][15][16][17]. 2. Macro - Information - **Financial Data**: In July 2025, M2 balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year; M1 balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, up 5.6% year - on - year. The net capital injection in the first seven months was 465.1 billion yuan. RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, and deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan. The social financing scale stock was 431.26 trillion yuan, up 9% year - on - year [8]. - **"Double Discount" Policy**: The "double discount" policy for personal consumption loans and service business loans has a one - year term, and its extension will be studied later [9]. - **Equipment Update**: 188 billion yuan of investment subsidy funds for equipment updates supported by special long - term bonds in 2025 have been allocated, driving over 1 trillion yuan in total investment [10]. - **Social Security Fund**: As of August 12, the social security fund appeared in the top ten tradable shares of 41 A - shares, with a total market value of 12.622 billion yuan. It increased holdings in rural commercial banks, feed, and small household appliances, and reduced holdings in power, chemical raw materials, and medical devices [11]. - **Countermeasures against the EU**: China included two EU banks in the counter - list in response to the EU's sanctions on two Chinese financial institutions [12]. - **Fed Outlook**: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is optimistic about the Fed's September meeting, with a possible 50 - basis - point rate cut and a series of rate cuts. Trump is considering candidates for the Fed chair [13]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Index Futures - On August 13, major index futures contracts showed an upward trend. It is expected that on August 14, index futures will show a strong - side oscillation. For the whole of August 2025, they are also expected to be strong - side oscillating or oscillating strongly [18][19][22][23]. Bond Futures - On August 13, the ten - year and thirty - year bond futures contracts showed a slight upward trend. On August 14, they are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [37][41]. Precious Metal Futures - On August 13, gold and silver futures contracts showed a slight upward trend. In August 2025, they are expected to have a strong - side wide - range oscillation, and on August 14, they are expected to be strong - side oscillating [42][48]. Base Metal Futures - On August 13, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures contracts showed a slight upward trend, while alumina, industrial silicon, and others declined. In August 2025, they are expected to have various trends such as strong - side wide - range oscillation, wide - range oscillation, etc. On August 14, copper, aluminum, and alumina are expected to be weak - side oscillating, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [53][59][65][70][72]. Energy Futures - On August 13, the crude oil futures contract declined. In August 2025, it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and on August 14, it is expected to be weak - side oscillating [100]. Agricultural Futures - On August 13, the rapeseed meal futures contract rose significantly. On August 14, it is expected to be weak - side oscillating. Other agricultural futures such as PTA and PVC are expected to be weak - side oscillating on August 14 [7][105][108][110].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View - The report believes that methanol will run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - weak respectively [1][5]. - Methanol has returned to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure as the previous macro - driving force has weakened. The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad remains high, and downstream demand is in the off - season, leading to a downward shift in the price center [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - On Wednesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.72% to 2470 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Thursday [5]. Definition of Fluctuation - For varieties with night trading, the night - trading closing price is the starting price; for those without, the previous day's closing price is used. The daily - trading closing price is the end price to calculate the increase or decrease [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% a weak oscillation, 0 - 1% increase a strong oscillation, and an increase of more than 1% a rise. Oscillatory - strong/weak only applies to intraday views [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of zinc show a mixed picture, with some factors being bullish and others neutral or bearish. The overall expectation for Shanghai zinc ZN2509 is to oscillate and strengthen [2]. - The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc oscillate and rise, with a shrinking volume and both long and short positions reducing, but the short - side reducing more. The short - term market may oscillate and consolidate, and technically, the price is above the moving average system, with the short - term indicator KDJ rising and running in the strong zone, while the trend indicator shows that the long - side strength is decreasing and the short - side strength is increasing, with the short - side having a slight advantage [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Zinc Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1153000 tons, consumption was 1130200 tons, with a supply surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons, consumption was 4507900 tons, with a supply shortage of 56500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4040600 tons, which is bullish [2]. - The basis is - 100 with a spot price of 22530, being neutral [2]. - On August 12, LME zinc inventory decreased by 875 tons to 79550 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 274 tons to 15768 tons, being neutral [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed an oscillating and rising trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average rising, which is bullish [2]. - The main net position is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. 2. Zinc Futures Market on August 12 - The trading volume of zinc futures contracts on August 12 varied by delivery month. For example, the 2509 contract had a trading volume of 79971 lots and a turnover of 901564490 yuan [3]. 3. Domestic Spot Market on August 12 - The prices of zinc - related products in the domestic spot market on August 12 showed different trends. Zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 17160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; zinc ingot was 22530 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet was 4120 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton; galvanized pipe was 4512 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 23050 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; zinc powder in Changsha was 27590 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20850 yuan/ton, unchanged; and secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou was 7729 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 4. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From July 31 to August 11, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 84400 tons to 99000 tons. Compared with August 4, it increased by 11800 tons, and compared with August 7, it increased by 7700 tons [5]. 5. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on August 12 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on August 12 were 15768 tons, an increase of 274 tons. Guangdong had 5482 tons with an increase of 225 tons, and Tianjin had 10286 tons with an increase of 49 tons [6]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory on August 12 - On August 12, LME zinc inventory decreased by 875 tons to 79550 tons [2][7]. 7. Zinc Concentrate Price on August 12 - The price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic regions on August 12 was mostly 17160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, except in Hechi (16960 yuan/ton) and Longnan (17110 yuan/ton) [8]. 8. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price on August 12 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from major smelters on August 12 all decreased by 30 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 22290 yuan/ton (Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium) to 22920 yuan/ton (Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry) [12]. 9. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 459700 tons, and the actual production was 471800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production for July was 470300 tons [14]. 10. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee on August 12 - The processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions on August 12 ranged from 3400 to 4100 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 70 US dollars/dry ton [16]. 11. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on August 12 - The total trading volume of zinc contracts among members of the Shanghai Futures Exchange on August 12 was 126968 lots, a decrease of 8228 lots. The total long position was 57632 lots, a decrease of 3363 lots, and the total short position was 56690 lots, a decrease of 5486 lots [17].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run in a relatively strong manner, showing a short - term, medium - term and intraday trend of stability with short - term and medium - term oscillations and intraday oscillations tending to be strong [1][5]. 3) Summary according to Relevant Catalogue Variety Morning Meeting Summary - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is oscillation tending to be strong, and the reference view is a relatively strong operation. The core logic is that there are differences between long and short positions, and methanol has stabilized in an oscillatory manner [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol has returned to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad remains high, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift. However, due to the rebound of domestic coal futures prices in the overnight session on Monday, which offsets the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol, the methanol futures 2601 contract showed an oscillatory consolidation trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.04% to 2478 yuan/ton. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillatory and stable trend on Tuesday [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The soybean meal and soybean oil futures are both in a wide - range oscillation stage. For soybean meal, the high inventory and good US weather suppress price increases, while the expected shortage of fourth - quarter supply and rising Brazilian soybean premiums support the price. For soybean oil, high domestic soybean arrivals and high - level oil mill operations lead to inventory accumulation, but uncertainties in biodiesel policy and Sino - US relations cause concerns about future supply [7][27] Summary by Directory Soybean Meal Futures 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. - Trend logic: In the 31st week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2539 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.36%. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons (0.14%) from the previous week. Good weather in the US main production areas strengthens the expectation of a bumper harvest, and sufficient domestic soybean arrivals and high - level oil mill operations result in high inventory, suppressing price increases. However, there is an expected shortage of fourth - quarter soybean supply, and the continuous strengthening of Brazilian soybean premium quotes pushes up import costs. - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was sideways, and the funds were relatively bearish. The M2509 was expected to oscillate in the range of 2920 - 3150 in the short term. - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is sideways, and the funds are strongly bullish. The M2601 is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2980 - 3200 [10][11] 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data sources: Wind, Mysteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department. The data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, and weekly inventory days [19][21][22] Soybean Oil Futures 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. - Trend logic: According to Mysteel data, in the 31st week, the actual output of soybean oil from 125 oil mills was 428,200 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.1174 million tons, an increase of 293,000 tons from the previous week. High domestic soybean arrivals and high - level oil mill operations lead to high - level crushing volume, but the weak terminal consumption causes continuous inventory accumulation. Uncertainties in biodiesel policy and Sino - US relations cause concerns about future supply. - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [27] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in an upward channel, and the funds were strongly bullish. The Y2509 was expected to run strongly in the short term, with an expected operating range of 8000 - 8400. - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in an upward channel, and the funds are relatively bullish. The Y2601 is expected to continue to run strongly, but attention should be paid to possible short - term oscillatory corrections, with an expected operating range of 8100 - 8500 [30][31] 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data sources: Wind, Mysteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department. The data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, soybean weekly arrivals, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium [42][43][47]