交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年12月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货23310，基差+240；偏多。 3、库存：12月9日LME锌库存较上日增加400吨至58152吨，12月9日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日减少2330吨至56067吨；中性。 12月9日国内主要现货市场行情 | 品名 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 情绪不佳，盘面偏弱 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 9 日 【行情分析】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 现货方面：连续两日盘面下跌后，现货成交价格明稳暗降，短期若无驱 动，预计上游降价吸单。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围 多在 1620-1680 元/吨，较昨日下滑 20 元/吨左右。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 2 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200 3400 山东尿素市场主流价：小颗粒（元/吨） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 今日大宗商品多数下跌，尿素低开低走日内偏弱。连续两日盘面下跌后， 现货成交价格明稳暗降，短期若无驱动， ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 ...

2025.12.08-12.12 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第48周油厂大豆实际压榨量220.08万吨，开机率为 60.54%，豆粕库存120.32万吨。国内油厂大豆与豆粕库存高企，而终端 需求受制于下游养殖业的普遍亏损，饲料消费增长乏力。叠加南美丰产 预期，共同构成价格上行压力。然而，市场对一季度供应不确定性存在 担忧，加之成本端带来底部支撑。综合来看，中线趋势预计豆粕价格将 处于宽幅震荡阶段。 2 关注库存去化进度，南美天气，养殖需求。 中线策略建议 3 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面倾向不明显。M2601 短期内预计处于震荡阶段，预计运行区间：2980-3100。 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面略微偏空。M2605短 期内预计处于震荡偏弱阶段，预计运行区间：2780-2880。 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长 ...

2025.12.01-12.05 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第47周油厂大豆实际压榨量233.44万吨，开机率为 64.22%，豆粕库存115.15万吨。油厂维持高开工率，加之大豆到港量充 裕，豆粕库存持续累积，供应整体宽松。同时，下游养殖利润处于亏损 状态，严重抑制饲料消费需求，企业多以刚需补库为主。尽管基本面偏 弱，但进口成本为价格提供底部支撑，加之南美天气仍存不确定性。综 合来看，中线趋势预计豆粕价格将处于震荡阶段。 2 关注美豆出口节奏，南美天气，养殖需求。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势处于下行通道,资金方面较为偏空。M2601 短期内预计处于震荡偏弱阶段，预计运行区间：2920-3080。 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面倾向不明显。M2601 短期内预计处于震荡阶段，预计运行区间：2980-3100。 品种诊断情况 | 豆粕 ...

玉米：本周，现货市场依旧维持紧张的氛围，农户销售进度加快，但是市场供应依旧短缺，粮源主要被贸易商囤积。短期看，供应保持低位与 下游企业补库需求的双重驱动下，玉米价格仍将保持强劲势头。值得关注的是，贸易商屯粮待涨，一定程度上延缓了售粮压力的集中释放，后 续关注产区粮源供应变化和港库库存的累积状况。中长期来看，本年度玉米市场供需格局仍维持偏紧态势，种植成本仍将对价格形成强支撑， 预计在农户售粮压力逐步释放后，现货价格有望开启新一轮上涨周期。 | 农产品早报 | | --- | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/01 | 玉米/淀粉 | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/24 2070 | 2200 2200 | 2380 | -20 | 30 244 | 2700 | 2850 | 170 | -1 | | 2025/11/25 2070 | 22 ...

PTA期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 中辉期货 PTA反弹高度或将有限 宁证期货 PTA震荡对待 西南期货 短期PTA或震荡运行 11月28日盘中，PTA期货主力合约偏强震荡，最高上探至4718.00元。截止发稿，PTA主力合约报 4700.00元，涨幅1.21%。 宁证期货：PTA震荡对待 聚酯库存低位，短期聚酯负荷预计大幅下降风险不大。PTA负荷下降，PTA供需结构阶段性相对较好。 成本端也有支撑。PTA震荡对待。 西南期货：短期PTA或震荡运行 综上，短期PTA加工费仍偏低，库存维持低位，成本端原油震荡偏弱运行，原料PX价格支撑有限。短 期PTA或震荡运行，考虑谨慎看待，注意控制风险，关注油价变化。 中辉期货：PTA反弹高度或将有限 PTA加工费整体偏低，装置检修力度有所提升叠加前期检修装置复产延期（虹港石化检修、逸盛宁波停 车检修5周、英力士、四川能投、独山能源1#检修中，逸盛大连、逸盛海南装置停车中），供应端压力 有所缓解；需求相对较好，聚酯库存无压力。成本端PX供强需弱（国内外装置提负，上海石化 （600688）重启后提负），近期有望跟随原油回调。TA12 ...

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 28 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2512 | 22475 | 22380 | 22530 | 22370 | 25 | 0.11 | 20351 | -5964 | | 沪锌 | 2601 | 22480 | 22415 | 22565 | 22410 | 55 | 0.25 | 101749 | 1019 | | 沪锌 | 2602 | 22465 | 22445 | 22590 | 22440 | 70 | 0.31 | 43628 | 3124 | 数据来源： Wind ，建信期货研究发展部 沪锌主力冲高回落，收于 22415 元/吨，涨 55，涨幅 0.25% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools such as the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and daily moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of futures main contracts on November 27, 2025. These include股指期货 oscillating and consolidating,白银期货 oscillating with an upward bias,黄金,多晶硅, and碳酸锂期货 oscillating with an upward trend, and螺纹钢 and铁矿石期货 oscillating with a downward trend[1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2512 is expected to have resistance at 4521 and 4539 points and support at 4457 and 4439 points; IH2512 at 2977 and 2990 points (resistance) and 2959 and 2952 points (support); IC2512 at 7000 and 7054 points (resistance) and 6871 and 6827 points (support); IM2512 at 7264 and 7300 points (resistance) and 7150 and 7132 points (support)[2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2603 is likely to oscillate weakly and test support at 107.64 and 107.55 yuan, with resistance at 107.91 and 108.03 yuan. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 is expected to oscillate weakly in a wide range and test support at 113.8 and 113.7 yuan, with resistance at 114.4 and 114.6 yuan[2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: The gold futures main contract AU2602 is likely to oscillate with an upward trend and attack resistance at 951.5 and 961.0 yuan/gram, with support at 942.5 and 939.6 yuan/gram. The silver futures main contract AG2602 is expected to oscillate with an upward bias and attack resistance at 12472 and 12664 yuan/kilogram, with support at 12163 and 12127 yuan/kilogram[2][3]. - **Base Metals Futures**: The copper futures main contract CU2601 is likely to oscillate with an upward trend and attack resistance at 87600 and 88000 yuan/ton, with support at 86700 and 86600 yuan/ton. The aluminum futures main contract AL2601 is expected to oscillate with an upward trend, with resistance at 21650 and 21730 yuan/ton and support at 21460 and 21380 yuan/ton. The alumina futures main contract AO2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and test support at 2700 and 2684 yuan/ton, with resistance at 2727 and 2736 yuan/ton[3]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: The polysilicon futures main contract PS2601 is likely to oscillate with an upward trend and attack resistance at 56700 and 57300 yuan/ton, with support at 55900 and 55500 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate futures main contract LC2605 is expected to oscillate with an upward trend and accumulate strength to attack resistance at 99500 and 101200 yuan/ton, with support at 95800 and 95000 yuan/ton. The rebar futures main contract RB2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and test support at 3076 and 3060 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3099 and 3105 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil futures main contract HC2601 is expected to oscillate weakly and test support at 3284 and 3273 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3304 and 3317 yuan/ton. The iron ore futures main contract I2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and test support at 790 and 788 yuan/ton, with resistance at 800 and 805 yuan/ton. The coking coal futures main contract JM2601 is expected to oscillate weakly and test support at 1053 and 1040 yuan/ton, with resistance at 1090 and 1095 yuan/ton[3][4]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: The glass futures main contract FG601 is likely to oscillate in a wide range, with resistance at 1051 and 1070 yuan/ton and support at 1031 and 1014 yuan/ton. The soda ash futures main contract SA601 is expected to oscillate weakly and test support at 1155 and 1141 yuan/ton, with resistance at 1183 and 1195 yuan/ton. The crude oil futures main contract SC2601 is likely to oscillate with an upward trend, with resistance at 449 and 453 yuan/barrel and support at 441 and 438 yuan/barrel. The methanol futures main contract MA601 is expected to oscillate with an upward trend and attack resistance at 2141 and 2168 yuan/ton, with support at 2094 and 2077 yuan/ton[6]. Macro - news and Trading Tips - China's airlines are instructed to cut flights to Japan before March 2026, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs suggests inquiring with relevant authorities[7]. - Six departments jointly issued a plan to enhance consumer goods supply - demand adaptability, aiming to optimize the supply structure by 2027, forming 3 trillion - level consumption areas and 1000 - billion - level consumption hotspots[7]. - The Cyberspace Administration of China emphasizes cracking down on online corporate infringement, strengthening the management of financial "self - media" and MCN accounts[7]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a credit repair management method to be effective from April 1, 2026, classifying失信 information into three categories with different publicity periods[7]. - China and the EU held a video meeting on economic and trade issues such as ASM, agreeing to promote communication between ASM Netherlands and ASM China[8]. - The Fed's Beige Book shows that most regions' economic activities were flat, with some regions reporting a slight decline or growth, and the risk of economic slowdown in the coming months has increased[8]. - US initial jobless claims decreased to 216,000 last week, and durable goods orders improved, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December to 85%[8][9]. Commodity Futures - related Information - Platinum and palladium futures will be listed on November 27, with benchmark prices of 405 yuan/gram and 365 yuan/gram respectively[9]. - US and Brent crude oil futures rose, but there was no clear reason for the increase[9]. - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 0.45% and COMEX silver up 4.13%. Market expectations of a Fed rate cut in December reached 85%[9]. - Most London base metals rose, while LME nickel and lead fell[10]. - The RMB strengthened against the US dollar for two consecutive days[10].

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [4] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Soda ash continues to be in a weak pattern of supply - demand imbalance. Although weekly production and operating rate have declined, the absolute output remains high. With flat shipments, weak supply - demand in downstream float glass, and no improvement in terminal real estate and photovoltaic demand, the cost provides support but high inventory restricts price increase. Short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and medium - long term may be treated with rebound short - selling [8]. - For glass, the spot performance is lower than expected, supply is stable, inventory is high, and demand in the real estate market is weak. However, with the accelerating cold - repair due to declining profits, if about 5000 tons of production lines are cold - repaired by the end of the year, inventory can be reduced. Currently, the glass price is undervalued, and the downward space is limited. Without new market expectations, the downward trend may continue [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On November 24, the main soda ash futures SA601 contract rebounded slightly. The closing price was 1183 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 1.02%, with a daily reduction of 58,280 lots [7]. - Soda ash is in a weak supply - demand imbalance. Weekly production and operating rate are down, but absolute output is still high. Downstream float glass has weak supply - demand, and terminal real estate and photovoltaic demand show no improvement. Cost supports the price, but high inventory restricts price increase. Short - term trend is volatile, and medium - long term may be rebound short - selling [8]. Glass - The spot performance is lower than expected, and the impact of concentrated production line shutdowns in Shahe is less than expected. Supply is stable, inventory is high after the holiday, and demand in the real estate market is weak. With declining profits, cold - repair is accelerating. About 5000 tons of production lines are planned for cold - repair by the end of the year. If cold - repaired, inventory can be reduced. Currently, the glass price is undervalued, and the downward trend may continue without new expectations [9]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, but no specific data analysis is presented in the text [12][16][15]