Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the liquidity and scale of the CSI 300 ETF have shown positive trends, with a significant increase in trading volume and net inflows from leveraged funds [3][4] - As of July 31, the CSI 300 ETF has seen a net value increase of 8.63% over the past six months, with a maximum monthly return of 25.64% since its inception [3] - The July PMI data reflects the resilience of China's economy, with production maintaining expansion despite seasonal negative impacts, while domestic demand is expected to recover due to policy support [3][4] Group 2 - The central political bureau meeting in July emphasized consolidating the economic recovery and addressing prominent issues in economic operations, while fostering new pillar industries without relying on debt-driven growth [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 index as of June 30, 2025, include Kweichow Moutai, CATL, and Ping An Insurance, collectively accounting for 22.76% of the index [4][6] - Investors without stock accounts can access core A-share assets through the CSI 300 ETF linked fund (160724) for low-cost entry [7]

Group 1 - A-shares opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.14%, Shenzhen Component down 0.08%, and ChiNext down 0.19% [1] - Sectors such as China Shipbuilding, fiberglass, and copper foil/copper-clad laminate saw significant declines [1] Group 2 - Everbright Securities noted a weakening "import rush" effect in Q2, with U.S. imports declining at an annualized rate of -30.3%, impacting net exports and contributing to the positive GDP growth [2] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. remains low, with personal consumption growth at 1.4%, the second-lowest since 2024, and private investment down to an annualized rate of -15.6% [2] - Everbright Securities predicts a high probability of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in the second half of the year [2] Group 3 - Huatai Securities expects the lithium battery supply chain's capacity utilization to continue improving, driven by strong sales of new energy vehicles in China and Europe [3] - The profitability model for energy storage is gradually improving, supported by local policies, and demand is expected to remain strong [3] - Supply-side constraints are easing, with significant slowdowns in new capacity releases in battery and material sectors, leading to improved profitability [3] Group 4 - Galaxy Securities remains optimistic about the equity market, focusing on technology, consumer sectors, and "anti-involution" areas [4] - July's PMI indicates resilience in China's economy, with production maintaining expansion despite seasonal impacts [4] - The central political bureau's meeting emphasized consolidating economic recovery and fostering new pillar industries without relying on debt-driven growth [4]

人民财讯8月1日电，银河证券表示，7月份的PMI一方面展现了我国经济的韧性，生产端在季节的负面 影响下依然保持扩张区间；内需虽然下滑，不过有前期"618"透支的因素，未来在以旧换新以及生育补 贴等扩内需政策的带动下或继续回升。另一方面，外需在长期"抢出口"的影响下已经开始边际下滑；企 业对长期的经营信心仍没有恢复，生产、采购和库存水平均以即期订单为锚。7月中央政治局会议做出 了部署，即巩固经济回升向好态势，并解决经济运行过程中的突出问题。又加速培育新兴支柱产业，不 走债务驱动增长的老路。同时会议提到了"巩固资本市场回稳向好势头"，银河证券仍然看好权益市场， 重点关注政策支持的科技、消费以及"反内卷"领域。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View Standing at the end of July and looking forward to August, investors' sentiment for going long in the bond market has declined. The consensus has shifted from going long on long - term and ultra - long - term bonds to medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds. The money market and the equity market have become the core concerns of investors, and their preference for medium - and low - grade urban investment bonds and local government bonds has weakened marginally [1]. 3. Summary by Questionnaire Items Q2: 10 - year Treasury Yield Upper and Lower Limits in August - Regarding the lower limit, 45% of investors think it will likely fall within 1.60% - 1.65% (inclusive), 18% believe it will break below 1.60% (mostly in the 1.55% - 1.60% range), and about 37% think it will exceed 1.65%. - Regarding the upper limit, 51% of investors think it will likely fall within 1.75% - 1.80% (inclusive), about 14% think it will exceed 1.80%, and only 4% think it will be below 1.70%. - Conclusion: Investors' expectation of a rise in the 10 - year Treasury yield is increasing, but they are still cautious about it breaking key points. The bond market may face some emotional shocks in August, but the macro - fundamentals are in a weak recovery, the money market is stable, and the expectation of loose monetary policy remains unchanged [10]. Q3: 30 - year Treasury Yield Upper and Lower Limits in August - Regarding the lower limit, over 73% of investors think it will fall within 1.80% - 1.90% (inclusive), 18% think it will break above 1.90%, and only 8% think it will be below 1.80%. - Regarding the upper limit, about 56% of investors think it will fall within 1.95% - 2.00% (inclusive), 24% think it will be in the 2.00% - 2.05% range, and about 9% think it will break above 2.05%. - Conclusion: Since July, the 30 - year Treasury yield has been rising, reaching a maximum of 1.998%. Investors' expectation of a further increase in the 30 - year Treasury yield is not high [14]. Q4: Economic Trend in the Third Quarter - 31% of investors are relatively optimistic about the economic trend in the third quarter, believing it will show "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month growth exceeding the seasonal level". - 24% think it will be "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month growth in line with the seasonal level". - 34% think it will be "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month growth weaker than the seasonal level". - 31% are relatively pessimistic, believing it will be "both year - on - year and month - on - month decline". - Conclusion: External factors may have some impact on the macro - economy in the third quarter, but the overall expectation of investors has not changed much, with the proportion of pessimistic expectations rising from 30% to 31% [15]. Q5: Next Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut and Interest Rate Cut Timing - Regarding reserve requirement ratio cuts, 43% of investors think there will be no more cuts this year, 47% think the next cut may be in the third quarter, and 9% think it will be postponed to the fourth quarter. - Regarding interest rate cuts, 41% of investors think there will be no cuts this year, 41% think the next cut may be in the fourth quarter, and 19% think it will be in August or the third quarter. - Conclusion: In July, investors' expectations for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts have gradually weakened. Most investors tend to postpone potential cuts to a more distant policy window rather than August [17]. Q6: Impact of the Recent "Anti - Involution" Policy on the Bond Market - 71% of investors think the "anti - involution" policy will be negative for the bond market. - 43% think it will strengthen the stock - bond seesaw effect and suppress the bond market through capital diversion. - 28% think it will push up industrial product prices, intensify inflation expectations, and be negative for the bond market. - 17% think the policy's effect is limited, and the bond market is still dominated by fundamentals. - Conclusion: The "anti - involution" policy has some impact on the macro - economy and the bond market, but no obvious trend is seen. Most investors think it will be negative for the bond market, but some think the impact is short - term [18]. Q7: Bond Market Trend in August - 28% of investors think the bond market will strengthen in August, with 13% expecting a bullish steepening of the yield curve and 15% expecting a bullish flattening. - 31% of investors think the bond market will be weak. - 26% of investors think the bond market will show a divergence between the short - end and the long - end, with the short - end strong and the long - end weak. - 2% of investors think the short - end will be weak and the long - end will be strong. - Conclusion: Investors' consensus has shifted to going long on short - term bonds. The proportion of those thinking the bond market will strengthen is significantly lower than in June. Investors' judgments on the bond market are relatively evenly distributed [22]. Q8: Current Bond Market Operation - 33% of investors think they should hold cash and wait to add positions after the market corrects to the expected level. - 20% of investors think they can start adding positions now. - 19% of investors think they should reduce the duration to control risks. - 14% of investors think they should take appropriate profits and reduce positions. - 14% of investors think they should keep the positions basically stable. - Conclusion: Most investors are neutral in practice. Holding cash and waiting is the mainstream view. The proportion of those thinking they can start adding positions has increased, indicating potential buying power in the bond market [23]. Q9: Most Favored Bond Types in August - Compared with June, investors' preference for ultra - long - term and long - term interest - rate bonds has decreased, while their preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds has increased significantly. - The popularity of local government bonds and medium - and low - grade urban investment bonds has decreased. - Conclusion: Investors' consensus has shifted from long - term and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds to medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds, and their preference for negotiable certificates of deposit has also increased [29]. Q10: Main Logic of Bond Market Pricing in August - Monetary policy, the money market, and the performance of the equity market have become the core concerns of bond investors. - Investors' attention to fiscal policy and government bond issuance remains the same, while their attention to fundamentals and institutional behavior games has decreased. - Conclusion: The central bank's monetary policy stance and the money market trend are still the factors that investors focus on. This month, investors' attention to the equity market has increased significantly, while their attention to institutional behavior games and fiscal policy has decreased [30].

Core Insights - The overall fund issuance in July shows a recovery trend, with 115 new funds established and a total issuance exceeding 90 billion [1] Fund Performance - The issuance of stock and bond funds has increased, while the share of mixed products has declined [1] - The rise in fund issuance is attributed to the positive performance of the equity market and the introduction of innovative products like the Sci-Tech Bond ETF [1] Market Outlook - Industry experts believe that the market's risk appetite is likely to remain on an upward trajectory, indicating a favorable configuration for equity assets [1]

Group 1 - The convertible bond market continues to see rising valuations, with prices reaching new highs, supported by strong demand in the fixed income market and low positions in convertible bonds [5][8][19] - The absolute price median of convertible bonds has reached 128 yuan, indicating a significant increase in valuation levels [8][19] - The market sentiment is bolstered by various events, including the commencement of construction on the Yashan Hydropower Station and the AI conference, which have strengthened bullish expectations [8][11] Group 2 - From July 21 to July 25, the equity market experienced a continuous upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.67% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.67% [11] - The average daily trading volume increased significantly to 1.84 trillion yuan, indicating heightened market activity [11] - The trading volume of convertible bonds reached 80.674 billion yuan, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 2.14% [19][29] Group 3 - The report suggests that the systemic risk for convertible bonds remains low, with a strong expectation for performance until September [5][8] - The report recommends focusing on low-priced and equity-oriented individual bonds, as the difficulty in selecting bonds increases under the current price structure [5][19] - The report highlights that high-priced and mid-high rated convertible bonds performed well, while AAA-rated and large-cap bonds showed relative weakness [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the document. Core Views - This week, the major market indices all increased. Among them, the CSI 500 led in terms of the increase in the valuation quantile of the price - earnings ratio index, and the STAR 50 led in terms of the increase in the valuation quantile of the price - to - book ratio index. In the industry aspect, 27 out of 31 Shenwan primary industries rose, with the top five gainers being building materials, coal, steel, non - ferrous metals, and building decoration; the declining industries were banking, communication, public utilities, and comprehensive [2]. - In the public fund market, the hot topics included the release of public fund market data by the Asset Management Association of China and the expansion of personal pension funds. In terms of performance, equity funds generally rose this week, with quantitative funds having the largest increase of 2.22%. Pure - bond funds ranged from a decline of 0.30% to an increase of 0.34%. Among FOF funds, pension - target FOF rose 0.60% with a positive - return ratio of 98.09%. Additionally, QDII funds rose an average of 1.10% with a positive - return ratio of 85.36% [3]. - In the ETF market, the overall capital inflow was 1.922 billion yuan this week, with the scale significantly decreasing compared to the previous period. Structurally, cross - border ETFs had the largest capital inflow of 10.322 billion yuan this week, while stock - type ETFs had a net outflow of 5.453 billion yuan. In terms of liquidity, the average daily trading volume of the overall ETF market reached 383.785 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume was 170.951 billion shares, and the average daily turnover rate was 10.33%. In terms of individual bonds, the inflow trend of STAR - bond - related ETFs continued this week. Among broad - based indices, the CSI A500 index had an outflow close to 8 billion yuan. From the perspective of industry themes, sectors such as Hong Kong non - banking and construction were favored by funds [4]. - This week, 23 new funds were issued, 10 fewer than last week; 36 new funds were established, 2 more than last week. The new funds raised a total of 27.661 billion yuan, 3.003 billion yuan less than last week [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review 1.1 Domestic Market Situation - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, the major equity market indices continued to rise. The STAR 50 had the largest increase of 4.63%, and the CSI 500 also had an increase of over 3%. In the industry sector, 27 out of 31 Shenwan primary industries rose, with the top five gainers being building materials, coal, steel, non - ferrous metals, and building decoration; the declining industries were banking, communication, public utilities, and comprehensive. In the bond market, the ChinaBond Composite Full - Price Index fell 0.44%, and the ChinaBond Treasury Bond, Financial Bond, and Credit Bond Total Full - Price Indices fell between 0.23% and 0.61%. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.14%. In the commodity market, the Nanhua Commodity Index rose 2.73% [13]. 1.2 European, American, and Asia - Pacific Market Situation - This week, the major indices in European, American, and Asia - Pacific markets showed mixed performance. In the US stock market, the S&P 500 index rose 0.98%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.30%, and the Nasdaq index rose 1.02%. In the European market, the French CAC40 rose 0.15%, and the German DAX fell 0.30%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.27%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 4.11% [22]. 1.3 Market Valuation Situation - This week, the major market indices all increased. The CSI 500 led in terms of the increase in the valuation quantile of the price - earnings ratio index, and the STAR 50 led in terms of the increase in the valuation quantile of the price - to - book ratio index. In the industry aspect, the top five industries with the highest historical quantiles of the price - earnings ratio valuation of the Shenwan primary index this week were real estate, banking, automobiles, electronics, and steel. Among them, the price - earnings ratio valuation quantile of real estate had reached 98.6%, and attention should be paid to the potential correction risk in the future. The five industries with relatively low historical quantiles of the price - earnings ratio valuation this week were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, non - banking finance, food and beverage, non - ferrous metals, and light manufacturing [25]. 2. Active Public Fund Situation - Market hot topics: On July 24, the Asset Management Association of China released public fund market data. As of the end of June 2025, there were 164 public fund management institutions in China, including 149 fund management companies and 15 asset management institutions with public fund qualifications. These institutions managed a total net asset value of public funds of 34.39 trillion yuan. Personal pension funds had a significant expansion, with the CSI 500 index - enhanced funds from Guotai Haitong Asset Management, Bodao Fund, and Tianhong Fund, as well as the China Merchants CSI 300 index - enhanced fund, announcing the addition of Class Y fund shares only available for purchase with personal pension funds and revising legal documents such as the fund contract. So far, the number of index - enhanced fund products in personal pension funds has increased from 19 to 23, with underlying indices covering many options such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 800, and CSI Dividend [33]. - Market performance: This week, equity funds generally rose, with quantitative funds having the largest increase of 2.22%. Pure - bond funds ranged from a decline of 0.30% to an increase of 0.34%. Among FOF funds, pension - target FOF rose 0.60% with a positive - return ratio of 98.09%. Additionally, QDII funds rose an average of 1.10% with a positive - return ratio of 85.36% [33]. - Through the calculation of the industry positions of active equity funds, the industries with the largest increase in positions this week were building materials, coal, and building decoration; the industries with the largest decline were national defense and military industry, electronics, and biomedicine. The overall position of active equity funds on July 25, 2025, was 75.38%, a decrease of 3.14 percentage points compared to last week [3][41][43]. 3. ETF Fund Situation - This week, the overall capital inflow of the ETF market was 1.922 billion yuan, with the scale significantly decreasing compared to the previous period. Structurally, cross - border ETFs had the largest capital inflow of 10.322 billion yuan this week, while stock - type ETFs had a net outflow of 5.453 billion yuan. In terms of liquidity, the average daily trading volume of the overall ETF market reached 383.785 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume was 170.951 billion shares, and the average daily turnover rate was 10.33% [4][48]. - In terms of individual bonds, the inflow trend of STAR - bond - related ETFs continued this week. Among broad - based indices, the CSI A500 index had an outflow close to 8 billion yuan. From the perspective of industry themes, sectors such as Hong Kong non - banking and construction were favored by funds. ETF targets with relatively large net inflows included the CSI Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non - Banking Financial Theme, and the CSI All - Share Building Materials Index; ETF targets with relatively large net outflows included the SSE STAR Market Composite, the SSE STAR 50 Component, and the ChiNext Index [4][49]. 4. Fund Issuance Statistics - This week, 23 new funds were issued in China, 10 fewer than last week. Among them, there were 6 actively managed equity - biased funds and 10 passive index funds. Among the 10 passive index funds, 8 were stock - type, mainly tracking indices such as the China Securities General Aviation Industry, the CSI All - Share Free Cash Flow, the CSI 800 Free Cash Flow, and the China Securities Robot Industry Index [55]. - This week, 36 new funds were established in China, 2 more than last week. The new funds raised a total of 27.661 billion yuan, 3.003 billion yuan less than last week. The largest - raising fund was the Huatai - PineBridge Stable - Benefit 6 - Month Holding Bond A managed by Li Wei and Gan Xinyu, with a raising scale of approximately 3.741 billion yuan [59].

Core Viewpoint - The total net asset value of public funds in China reached a historical high of 34.39 trillion yuan as of June 30, 2025, with significant contributions from bond funds and a mixed performance in equity funds [1][3][4]. Fund Size Growth - As of June 30, 2025, there are 164 public fund management institutions in China, managing a total net asset value of 34.39 trillion yuan, marking a growth of 651.9 billion yuan from the end of May [3][4]. - The public bond fund size increased by 507.8 billion yuan in June, reaching 7.28 trillion yuan, with a year-to-date growth trend observed over four consecutive months [6][5]. Bond Fund Performance - Bond funds were the main contributors to the overall growth, with a monthly increase exceeding 500 billion yuan in June [5]. - The bond market is expected to remain bullish in the second half of the year, supported by favorable fundamentals and liquidity conditions, although there are concerns regarding high leverage and duration risks in a low volatility environment [8][7]. Equity Fund Performance - The A-share market showed positive performance in June, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.9%, leading to an increase in the size of equity funds [9]. - Stock funds and mixed funds saw increases of 148.3 billion yuan and 121.3 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 3.24% and 3.4% [10]. New Fund Issuance - In June, 110 new equity funds were established, raising a total of 51.6 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 40% of the total new fund issuance [11]. - The outlook for the A-share market remains optimistic, driven by sectors such as AI, military, and innovative pharmaceuticals, alongside supportive domestic policies [11]. QDII Fund Growth - QDII funds experienced a growth of approximately 4.51%, reaching a total size of 683.7 billion yuan by the end of June, benefiting from strong inflows and favorable market conditions [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The public fund market in China has reached a new historical high, with total assets exceeding 34 trillion yuan as of June 2025, reflecting a significant growth trend in various fund types [2][3]. Fund Market Overview - As of June 2025, the total scale of public funds in China reached 34.39 trillion yuan, marking a record high and an increase of over 650 billion yuan compared to the end of May, representing a month-on-month growth of 1.93% [3][4]. - The number of public fund management institutions in China stands at 164, including 149 fund management companies and 15 asset management institutions with public qualifications [3]. Fund Type Performance - The growth in public fund scale is primarily driven by equity funds (including stock and mixed funds) and bond funds [5]. - Equity funds saw a monthly scale increase of 2.7 billion yuan, reaching 8.42 trillion yuan, while mixed funds grew by 3.4% to 3.69 trillion yuan, marking their first increase after two months of decline [5]. - Bond funds experienced the highest subscription activity in June, with net subscriptions of 353.6 billion yuan, leading to a total scale of 7.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 507.9 billion yuan [5]. Fund Subscription Trends - Mixed funds and bond funds have shown significant net subscriptions, while stock funds have remained relatively stable [5][6]. - QDII funds also experienced growth, with a net increase of 0.78% in scale, reaching 683.8 billion yuan [6]. Fund Redemption Trends - Conversely, money market funds faced net redemptions in June, with a total of 164.6 billion yuan redeemed, resulting in a decrease in scale to 14.23 trillion yuan [7].

Core Viewpoint - The equity market continues to show a rebound trend from the "9.24" rally, while the fixed income market experiences fluctuations in a historically low-risk interest rate environment. Overall, various fund indices have yielded positive results in the first half of 2025 [1]. Equity Market - In the second half of 2025, the equity market is expected to face downward pressure but is supported by a stable economic fundamental. The introduction of further reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board by the CSRC in June is anticipated to maintain market activity, although external complexities and domestic demand pressures may lead to a primarily fluctuating stock market with an upward central tendency [5]. - Key sectors to focus on include dividends, pharmaceuticals, military industry, and AI applications [5]. Fund Manager Insights - Fund Manager Yang Jiannan highlights the promising outlook for the pharmaceutical sector driven by innovative drugs, with domestic companies increasingly entering global markets through licensing agreements [6]. - Fund Manager Chen Bo emphasizes the rapid development of new productive forces, including AI and high-end manufacturing, and the rising penetration of spiritual consumption products [7]. - Fund Manager Lu Yang notes that large-cap indices have rebounded to median valuations, and investment strategies will focus on bottom-up stock selection based on industry competition and company performance [8]. Fixed Income Market - The fixed income market is characterized by a pragmatic approach, with limited expectations for significant interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. The central bank is expected to prioritize the stability of the banking system's liabilities and optimize policies based on macro-prudential principles [9]. - The market is likely to see a focus on short-term rates and credit products, with convertible bonds standing out due to their dual advantages in a resilient stock market [9]. Fund Manager Insights - Fund Manager Cai Weifeng reports a mixed strategy in the bond market, achieving moderate net value growth despite a challenging environment [10]. - Fund Manager Chen Fangfei observes that the bond market experienced fluctuations, with the central bank's actions providing some support, while maintaining a high duration strategy [12]. - Fund Manager Xu Jia notes that external risks have influenced bond market trends, with a focus on internal economic conditions as the market stabilizes [14].