炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中信证券研究 文|明明 章立聪 赵偲翀 今年以来，银行大量到期存款的再配置问题受到广泛关注。后续投资者对银行存款到期流向关注重点集 中在以下几方面：一是到期存款是否仍以停留在银行表内为主？二是到期存款是否会迁徙至低风险资管 产品？三是到期存款是否会搬家至权益市场？ ▍利率复盘： 年初央行货币政策体现积极呵护信号，强调降准降息仍有空间，短端利率走势偏强，但对于超长期特别 国债供给的担忧仍存，叠加A股春季躁动行情，长端利率震荡走弱；曲线形态上，1月以来短端受益于 流动性宽松，超长端受制于特别国债供给预期，期限利差走阔，30Y-10Y利差中枢进一步上行，创下 2023年以来新高，收益率曲线显著陡峭化；资金利率上，资金面受税期短暂扰动，随着央行传递积极呵 护态度，流动性整体保持平稳；信用利差方面，1月以来信用利差持续收缩。 ▍存款增速下滑的趋势如何拆解？ 2025年下半年以来，银行体系存款增速逐步下滑，存贷增速差同步收缩。从结构上看，目前企业部门定 存增速和定存偏好明显下降，居民部门虽同比回落，但仍保持较高增速，反映居民端仍维持"被动储 蓄"， ...

Group 1 - The current rapid growth of household savings provides favorable monetary conditions for the equity market [3][6] - The development of artificial intelligence (AI) is still in the early "road construction" phase, with significant companies expected to emerge in future applications [3][6] - Investors should focus on industry trends and avoid blindly chasing short-term hotspots [3][6] Group 2 - The growth in electricity demand during the AI development process is expected to drive opportunities in energy metals such as copper, aluminum, lithium, and silver, as well as in the power equipment and mining machinery sectors [3][6] - The "involution" phenomenon in China's manufacturing industry presents unique investment opportunities, as domestic companies are gradually replacing foreign competitors in certain niche markets due to technological advancements and cost advantages [3][6] - Companies in these sectors often have lower valuations and clear growth potential, making them worthy of attention from investors [3][6]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the equity market showed positive performance in December 2025, with major indices rising, particularly in the cyclical and growth sectors, while value sectors lagged behind [3][11] - Specific industries such as defense, non-ferrous metals, and communications saw significant gains of 21.24%, 13.03%, and 12.82% respectively, while real estate, food and beverage, and pharmaceuticals experienced declines of -4.47%, -4.34%, and -4.09% [11][12] - The report highlights a shift in market sentiment from defensive to offensive, driven by favorable liquidity conditions and positive policy signals from the Central Economic Work Conference [4][17] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with strong performance indicators, particularly the AI industry chain and commercial aerospace, while also monitoring external factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [4][19] - It suggests a strategic resource re-evaluation, particularly in metals and energy resources, as geopolitical dynamics shift towards a focus on national strength and stability [19] - The report outlines a multi-strategy approach for fixed income funds, recommending a balanced allocation between flexible bond strategies and equities with strong risk control and long-term return potential [5][30] Group 3 - The report provides insights into the performance of various fund indices, with the active equity fund index showing a cumulative net value of 1.4934 since its inception, outperforming the benchmark by 20.21% [21][22] - The short-term bond fund index has also shown positive performance, with a cumulative net value of 1.4637, exceeding its benchmark by 0.5434% since its construction [28][29] - The report details the selection criteria for fund indices, focusing on performance stability, risk management, and the ability to adapt to market conditions [24][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall repair trend of December's CPI and PPI readings continued, but the structural differentiation of price indicators was not significantly improved. The core CPI's year - on - year repair momentum may have slowed, and the PPI is expected to turn positive in Q2 [6][14][18]. - The bond market was weak this week. The strong performance of the equity market at the beginning of the year suppressed the bond market. Factors such as the correction of unreasonable interest - rate cut expectations and the lower - than - expected central bank bond - buying scale led to a larger adjustment in the short - and medium - term bonds. However, the impact of the equity market on the bond market weakened marginally towards the weekend [6]. - The factors restricting the bond market's strength still exist, so a relatively cautious judgment is held for the Q1 trend. But there may be short - term trading opportunities in bond futures, and it is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term contracts [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - This week's CPI data met expectations, with food and tobacco prices and precious metal jewelry prices being the main drivers of CPI repair. The core CPI's year - on - year repair momentum may have slowed, and the household appliance prices in the household goods and services sub - item increased strongly [14]. - The PPI data slightly exceeded expectations. The production data prices in the upstream were the main source of PPI repair, while the downstream consumer goods prices had weak repair momentum. The domestic PPI year - on - year is expected to turn positive in Q2 [18][16]. - The strong equity market at the beginning of the year suppressed the bond market, but the impact weakened marginally towards the weekend [24]. - The capital price did not fall further, and the central bank's bond - buying was lower than expected, leading to a relatively large adjustment in the short - and medium - term bonds [26]. 3.1.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Try to go long at low prices in the short term [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Relevant Data Tracking 3.2.1 Futures Contract Valuation - The IRR of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL were about 1.3126%, 1.4026%, 1.2506%, and 0.7725% respectively. The futures bond valuation was slightly underestimated compared to the spot bonds [36]. 3.2.2 Contract Spreads - The spreads between different contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL are presented in the data [41]. 3.2.3 Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume and open interest data of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are provided [44]. 3.2.4 Spot Bond Yields and Spreads - The curves of spot bond yields, term spreads, spreads between national bonds and local bonds, and spreads between 10Y national bonds and state - owned development bonds are presented [47]. 3.2.5 US Treasury Yields and Exchange Rates - Data on the US 10 - year Treasury yield, Sino - US 10 - year Treasury spread, US dollar index, and US dollar - offshore RMB exchange rate are provided [50].

Group 1 - The core logic for A-shares in 2026 is the dual resonance of traditional industry profit recovery and improved risk appetite [3] - The manufacturing, technology services, and non-bank financial sectors are expected to lead the profit recovery, with the real estate chain's profit squeeze being a key variable for A-share profit growth [3] - The macro backdrop of synchronized interest rate cuts in China and the US will create diverse investment opportunities, with a focus on long-term asset reallocation [4] Group 2 - The AI sector is shifting from hardware to applications, with significant long-term potential in areas like AI coding and autonomous driving [6] - The pharmaceutical industry is focusing on the global competitiveness of domestic innovative drugs, particularly in oncology, with an emphasis on safety and efficacy in selection [6] - The consumer sector is anticipated to improve with inflation recovery and service consumption upgrades, with a focus on sectors like tourism and aviation [6] Group 3 - The cyclical sector is expected to benefit from policy support and external demand recovery, with industrial metals and precious metals showing strong price support [7] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system, which will accelerate investments in key sectors like high-end equipment and green energy [7] - The fixed income and "fixed income plus" sectors should focus on capturing trading opportunities through flexible duration management [7] Group 4 - A diversified asset allocation strategy is crucial for risk dispersion in the context of global monetary easing and changing asset correlations [8] - The investment logic for Hong Kong and overseas markets will evolve with liquidity trends and industry developments, particularly in AI applications [9] - The 2026 investment landscape is characterized by structural opportunities in traditional industry profit recovery and breakthroughs in emerging sectors [9]

从券商中国记者跟踪观察情况来看，公募增量资金是"存款腾挪"趋势下的典型映射，在新年入市基金产 品上主要有两个表现：一是个人投资者成为ETF主力军，不少产品的份额占比超90%；二是主动基金份 额自2025年三季度后已不再下降，甚至出现小幅回升。业内人士表示，存款搬家趋势有望在2026年带来 万亿级流向投资领域的活化增量资金，多数将寻求稳健型产品。 新年行情暖意融融，公募增量资金持续入市。 根据券商中国记者统计，截至1月10日2026年入市的公募资金预计在450亿元以上：一是新年上市的22只 股票ETF，合计规模63.45亿元。二是岁末年初成立、进入建仓期的主动含权基金，规模接近400亿元。 开年入市的公募资金，最直接的是股票ETF。根据wind统计，截至1月9日，2026开年以来一共有16只 ETF确定上市时间。其中，有7只ETF拟于开年第二周（1月12日至1月15日）上市交易。 入市ETF仓位迅速提升 具体来看，7只ETF品类丰富，建信基金上市的是创业板综合增强策略ETF，华夏基金和鹏华基金是中 证全指食品ETF。易方达一共有两只ETF上市，分别是中证工程机械主题ETF、中证港股通高股息投资 ETF。此外还有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Private Fund Development Forum, hosted by Paipai Network Group, aims to explore high-quality development paths for the private securities fund industry in China, emphasizing the importance of the industry in enhancing market resilience and meeting wealth management needs [1]. Group 1: Forum Overview - The forum will take place on January 8, 2026, at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Shenzhen, with only three days left for registration [1]. - The theme of the forum is "Following the Light, Stars Across the Galaxy," focusing on creating a high-end communication platform for industry insights and collaboration [1]. Group 2: Key Sessions and Speakers - Lin Li, General Manager of Paipai Network Fund Sales Company, will deliver the opening speech, followed by keynote presentations from Liu Zhao, Deputy Director of the Index and Quantitative Investment Department at Bosera Fund, and Shi Jianghui, General Manager of Guoyuan Xinda [2]. - Three roundtable discussions will cover topics such as quantitative investment, equity markets, and CTA strategies, featuring industry leaders and experts [2]. Group 3: Interactive Networking - The forum will introduce the "Paipai Roundtable - Capital Matching Garden Party," allowing private fund managers to interact with over 20 institutional investors and 50 quality private fund institutions, facilitating efficient matching and collaboration [3]. - This event aims to break traditional networking barriers and create opportunities for resource alignment and cooperative success [3].

Group 1 - The public fund issuance market in 2025 shows a positive trend with both quantity and efficiency improving, with 1553 new public fund products issued, a 35.87% increase from 1143 in 2024, marking a four-year high [1] - The average subscription days for new funds decreased significantly from 22.63 days in 2024 to 16.41 days in 2025, indicating high market participation enthusiasm [1] - Key drivers for the growth in new fund issuance include a favorable equity market, deepening passive investment trends, accelerated approval processes, and the rapid development of FOF products [1] Group 2 - Equity funds dominate the new issuance landscape, with 1109 equity funds (including stock and mixed equity funds) accounting for 71.41% of new funds, including 835 stock funds and 274 mixed equity funds [1] - Passive index products performed exceptionally well, with 699 new products issued, representing 45.01% of the total new funds, including 618 passive index stock funds [1] - In contrast, bond fund issuance declined, with 284 new bond funds issued, a decrease of approximately 13.94% from 330 in 2024, reflecting a "strong equity, weak bond" market dynamic [2] Group 3 - FOF products experienced explosive growth, with 88 new products issued, more than doubling from the previous year and surpassing the total issuance of the past three years [2] - The market shows high concentration, with 133 institutions participating in new fund issuance, and 24 institutions issuing 20 or more products, indicating a strong head effect in the industry [2] - E Fund led the new issuance with 69 products, followed by China Universal Fund and Huaxia Fund with 64 and 61 products respectively, highlighting the dominance of major public fund institutions [2] Group 4 - Several institutions maintain a positive outlook for the equity market in 2026, anticipating an overall upward turning point in A-share company earnings, driven by economic cycle patterns [3] - Industries such as engineering machinery, steel, and aviation are showing signs of stabilization and improvement since 2025, with a clear market structure emerging [3] - The trend of resources concentrating towards leading quality enterprises is becoming increasingly evident, supporting the expectation of profit recovery for companies with core competitiveness [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 24, 2025, the demand for cross - year funds increased, leading to a structural differentiation in the capital market. The bond market fluctuated and consolidated, while the convertible bond market's major indices rose collectively, with most individual convertible bonds posting gains. Yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally declined, and the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The 4th quarter (111th in total) regular meeting of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee in 2025 was held on December 18. It proposed to leverage the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, maintain ample liquidity, and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level [3]. - On December 24, the central bank announced a 400 - billion - yuan MLF operation on December 25, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan after considering the maturity of 300 billion yuan of MLF this month [4]. - Multiple departments jointly issued the "Opinions on Financial Support for Accelerating the Construction of the New Western Land - Sea Corridor", proposing 21 key measures to support its high - quality development [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce released the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraged for Foreign Investment (2025 Edition)", with a total of 1679 items, a net increase of 205 items compared to the 2022 edition [5]. - Beijing optimized and adjusted housing purchase restriction policies on December 24, reducing the social security or tax payment requirements and allowing multi - child families to buy an additional property within the 5th Ring Road [6]. - **International News** - On December 24, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 fell to 214,000, while the number of continuing jobless claims for the week ending December 13 was 1.923 million. Consumer confidence has declined for five consecutive months [7]. - **Commodities** - On December 24, international crude oil and natural gas futures prices declined. WTI February crude futures fell 0.05% to $58.35 per barrel, Brent February crude futures fell 0.22% to $62.24 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 0.01% to $4,505.40 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 3.69% to $4.249 per ounce [8][9]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open Market Operations** - On December 24, the central bank conducted a 26 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan due to the maturity of 46.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases [11]. - **Funding Rates** - On December 24, due to the increasing cross - year demand from institutions, the capital market showed a structural differentiation. DR001 dropped 0.69bp to 1.262%, and DR007 dropped 3.05bp to 1.380% [12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Bearing Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On December 24, affected by multiple rumors such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and bond purchases, the bond market fluctuated and consolidated. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 remained unchanged at 1.8350%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250215 dropped 0.05bp to 1.8975% [14]. - **Bond Tendering** - Information on the tendering of 25 Discount Treasury Bond 82, 25 Discount Treasury Bond 81, and 25 Coupon Treasury Bond 25 is provided, including their terms, issuance scales, winning yields, and other data [15]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On December 24, the trading price of one industrial bond, "22 Vanke 04", deviated by more than 10%, rising more than 18% [15]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Various companies announced events such as debt defaults, debt restructurings, asset sales, and equity transfers. For example, Sunac China completed its comprehensive overseas debt restructuring, and Wanda's credit ratings were downgraded [17]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On December 24, the three major A - share stock indices rose collectively, and the convertible bond market also increased. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.71%, 0.75%, and 0.62% respectively [17]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On December 25, Jin 05 Convertible Bond started its online subscription, and on December 24, Tianneng Convertible Bond announced that it was about to trigger the condition for a downward revision of the conversion price [23]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market** - On December 24, yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally declined. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 1bp to 3.47%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 3bp to 4.15%. The yield spreads between 2 - year and 10 - year, and 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasuries both narrowed by 2bp [20][21]. - **European Bond Market** - On December 24, the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends. France's 10 - year government bond yield rose 1bp, Spain's dropped 1bp, and the UK's remained unchanged [24]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on December 24, price change information of various Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds is provided, including the daily and monthly changes in yields and prices of bonds issued by companies such as Longfor Group and Wanda [26].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to steadily rise in 2025, with significant growth in the private equity fund industry, showcasing resilience and vitality amidst a changing macroeconomic landscape [1] Group 1: Forum Overview - The 20th Private Fund Development Forum will be held on January 8, 2026, in Shenzhen, focusing on the theme "Following the Light, Stars Across the Galaxy" to create a high-level industry exchange platform [1] - The forum aims to gather various stakeholders, including securities firms, futures companies, and private equity funds, to analyze market trends and investment strategies for 2026 [1] Group 2: Key Speakers and Sessions - Lin Li, General Manager of the Fund Sales Company at 排排网, will deliver the opening speech, providing deep insights into industry development [1] - Notable speakers include Liu Zhao, Deputy Director of the Index and Quantitative Investment Department at 博时基金, and Shi Jianghui, General Manager of 国源信达, who will share their unique perspectives on the market and industry [1] Group 3: Roundtable Discussions - The forum features three major themed roundtable discussions focusing on quantitative investment, equity markets, and CTA strategies [2] - The first roundtable, hosted by Chen Hao, will discuss the explosion of quantitative performance, AI-enabled investment, and the competitive paths for small and medium-sized institutions [2] - The second roundtable, led by Du Haoran, will explore the 2026 stock market trends, including market logic, hot sector opportunities, and AI application practices [2] - The third roundtable, moderated by Wang Jiazhen, will address the drivers of CTA performance recovery and the investment logic of precious metals [2] Group 4: Networking Opportunities - The forum introduces the "排排圆桌派—Capital Connection Garden Party" to facilitate efficient interactions between over 20 institutional investors and 80 quality private equity firms [3] - This event aims to foster collaboration and mutual growth among participants, encouraging them to seize industry development opportunities [3]