Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The direction of monetary policy in the second half of 2025 is crucial for the equity market. After a significant increase in A-shares, they may enter a high-level shock pattern [2]. - In the short term, the 10-year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Gold shows a strong shock trend, and copper prices are rising due to improved interest rate cut expectations [2]. - Many commodities such as steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are facing price - related challenges. Some suggest strategies like long steel - to - ore ratio and shorting at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After a large increase in A - shares, they may enter a high - level shock pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next direction decision [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. It is recommended to use range - bound operations for unilateral strategies and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of TL contracts for spot - futures strategies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is strongly fluctuating. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions unilaterally. Buying at - the - money or in - the - money call options can be considered. Silver is affected by news and shows an upward shock [2][3]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations, the center of copper prices has risen, with the main contract reference range of 78500 - 80500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum oxide has a surplus pressure, and the disk is in a weak shock. Aluminum is in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled. Aluminum alloy has a firm spot price [2]. - **Other Metals**: Nickel has an upward shock trend, and stainless steel has a strong disk due to improved spot trading, with cost support and weak demand in a game [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supported by geopolitical and supply risks, oil prices have rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and use a positive - spread strategy for arbitrage [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Many chemicals have different market situations. For example, ethylene glycol is expected to have limited downward space, while PVC is in a weakening trend [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn futures are in a rebound adjustment, and palm oil may rise in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and eggs have a weak peak - season performance [2]. Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: Glass has a high inventory, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Rubber has a strong fundamental situation and is in a high - level shock [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Polysilicon has risen significantly due to news stimulation, and lithium carbonate is in a wait - and - see state [2].

Core Viewpoint - In late August, the RMB experienced a rapid appreciation against the backdrop of a weak US dollar index, strong central bank midpoint pricing, and attractive domestic equity market performance, leading to a new low for the USD/CNY exchange rate this year [1] Group 1 - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain strong in the short term, gradually returning to a "three-price unification" [1] - If the RMB can maintain a strong trend as the year-end approaches, the demand for settlement is likely to continue supporting the RMB exchange rate [1] - The current domestic fundamentals are primarily providing a floor for the exchange rate, with foreign capital inflow into the equity market but facing outflow pressure in the bond market [1] Group 2 - A breakthrough of the 7 level for the RMB exchange rate will require additional catalysts [1]

Group 1 - The manufacturing sector shows marginal recovery in supply and demand, with PMI production rising by 0.3 percentage points to 50.8% [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is driving a rebound in commodity prices, with August PPI expected to narrow its year-on-year decline to -2.8% [2] - The BCI index for private enterprises has dropped to 46.9%, indicating ongoing operational pressures for small and medium-sized enterprises [2] Group 2 - Infrastructure investment is likely to continue slowing down, but the launch of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools may stimulate total investment by approximately 400 billion yuan in Q4 [3] - The service sector has shown slight improvement, with the capital market's strength boosting service PMI above 70.0% for two consecutive months [3] Group 3 - Q4 policies are expected to be timely enhanced, focusing on expanding service consumption, with nationwide service consumption vouchers estimated to be between 300-500 billion yuan [4] - Shanghai plans to allocate over 40 billion yuan for consumption upgrades from September to December 2024, suggesting a national scale of approximately 375 billion yuan for service consumption vouchers [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the RMB has experienced a rapid appreciation due to a combination of external factors, including a weaker US dollar index, strong central bank guidance on exchange rate expectations, and attractive performance in the domestic equity market, which has drawn foreign capital inflows [1] Group 1 - The USD/CNY exchange rate has reached a new low for the year, reflecting the recent appreciation of the RMB [1] - The RMB is expected to maintain a strong and fluctuating trend in the short term, gradually returning to a state of "three prices in one" [1] - As the year-end approaches, if the RMB can sustain its strong fluctuations, it is anticipated that the demand for currency settlement will continue to support the RMB exchange rate [1] Group 2 - The current domestic fundamentals are primarily providing a floor for the exchange rate, with foreign capital inflows into the equity market contrasted by outflows in the bond market [1] - More catalysts are needed for the RMB to break the 7 level against the US dollar [1]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In August, manufacturing PMI in both the US and Europe exceeded expectations, indicating economic resilience, which may lead the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, catalyzing a recovery trade [1] - Domestic PMI data for August shows stabilization in manufacturing, improvement in services, and a decline in construction [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The A-share market has accelerated since August, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking key levels and daily trading volume reaching 30 trillion yuan multiple times [2] - The technology sector is experiencing a significant influx of funds, indicating a cycle of acceleration in both market performance and capital flow [2] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed signs of recovery in the first half of the week (August 25-29), but optimism in equity markets persisted, leading to a lack of downward momentum in the bond market [1] - The relative attractiveness of equities compared to bonds has begun to decrease as equity prices continue to rise while the bond market adjusts [1] Group 4: Commodity Insights - The expectation of financial conditions easing before the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is beneficial for gold performance in the short term [5] - Oil demand is projected to be weak over the next 25 years, with ongoing supply releases putting downward pressure on oil prices [4]

Stock Market - The major index showed a strong upward trend last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3900 points, marking a ten-year high [1] - The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market reached nearly 400 billion, recovering to around 3 trillion, with three trading days exceeding 3 trillion this week [1] - The overall performance of important indices was positive, with the ChiNext Index and STAR Market Index both rising nearly 8%, while the micro-cap sector lagged with a decline of nearly 4% [1] - Global markets experienced a general pullback, with A-shares showing significant resilience compared to H-shares, which saw the Hang Seng Index drop over 1% [1] - Key sectors such as computing power, semiconductors, consumer electronics, and commercial aerospace performed actively, while traditional sectors like coal, banking, and utilities faced pressure [1] Equity Market - The equity market is in a bullish sentiment driven by multiple favorable factors, including a loose policy environment and rising investor risk appetite [2] - The manufacturing PMI in August rose to 49.4%, indicating a slight recovery, although it was below the market expectation of 49.5% [2] - Both domestic and external demand are showing support, with production indices improving and raw material inventories being replenished [2] - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in September and potential further cuts in the coming months [2] Bond Market - The bond market continues to show weak fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.75% before rebounding [3] - The real estate sector remains under pressure, with prices declining, although transaction volumes are relatively stable [3] - The liquidity and policy environment are stable, with minor disturbances around tax periods affecting the bond market [3] - The issuance scale of government bonds has decreased year-on-year, but remains at a relatively high absolute level, impacting liquidity [3] Overall Market Dynamics - The rise in the equity market and the shift in institutional asset allocation from stocks to bonds have led to an increase in bond yields and an expansion of yield spreads [4] - There is ongoing pressure on bank liabilities, and attention is focused on the potential decrease in government bond issuance and credit growth [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the first half of 2025, over half of the convertible bond issuers saw year - on - year revenue growth. It is advisable to focus on some industry targets with in - line mid - year reports and reasonable valuations, while avoiding targets with lower - than - expected mid - year reports and high prices and premiums. Also, pay attention to the repair market of individual bonds with marginal improvements in post - mid - year - report orders/ prices in the 'anti - involution' industries and track policy catalysts from the third quarter onwards [1][2][10][16]. - Currently, A - shares still show good allocation value in terms of risk premium. In the convertible bond market, considering the impact of refinancing policies, there is some support on the demand side under the background of supply contraction. However, as the current overall valuation of convertible bonds is at a relatively high level, caution should be exercised regarding correction risks. Attention should be paid to hot themes, the repair opportunities of low - level technology growth sectors, and industries with improved domestic demand and high - dividend sectors [18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special and Outlook 3.1.1. How were the Issuers' Performance in the First Half of 2025? - Among 440 convertible bond issuers, 269 and 218 issuers saw year - on - year increases in operating income and net profit attributable to shareholders, accounting for 61.14% and 49.55% respectively. There were 75 convertible bonds with a net profit growth rate of over 50% and 90 with a growth rate below - 50%. There were 12 convertible bonds with a revenue growth rate of over 50% and 5 with a growth rate below - 50% [10]. - At the industry level, the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry had the highest year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders, while the light manufacturing industry had the lowest. Six industries had positive median revenue and profit growth rates, and six had negative ones. Loss - making issuers were mainly concentrated in power equipment, computer, basic chemicals, and pharmaceutical biology industries [12]. - Among individual bonds, 169 issuers achieved year - on - year growth in both revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders, and 122 issuers saw year - on - year declines in both [16]. 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the A - share market fluctuated upward. Considering the risk premium, A - shares still have good allocation value. In the convertible bond market, supply contraction provides some support on the demand side, but high valuations pose correction risks. Industries worthy of attention include hot themes, low - level technology growth sectors, domestic - demand - oriented industries, and high - dividend sectors [17][18]. 3.2. Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market 3.2.1. The Equity Market Closed Higher - This week, major equity market indices closed higher, with a market style more inclined towards large - cap growth. Among the Shenwan industries, 15 rose and 16 fell, with communication, non - ferrous metals, and electronics leading the gains [22][25]. 3.2.2. The Convertible Bond Market Closed Lower, and the Premium Rate per 100 - Yuan Par Value Declined - The convertible bond market closed lower this week, with the average daily trading volume increasing. All 29 industries in the convertible bond market declined, with the automotive, social services, and non - banking finance industries leading the losses. Most individual bonds fell, and the median convertible bond price decreased [27][32][34]. - The weighted conversion value of the whole market increased, and the premium rate decreased. The current premium rate per 100 - yuan par value is above the 50th percentile since 2017 [39]. 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, there was valuation differentiation in the convertible bond structure. The valuation of convertible bonds with a par value between 110 - 120 increased, while most others decreased. Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have bottomed out and rebounded [49]. 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, convertible bonds of all ratings and scales declined. Historically, high - rating AAA convertible bonds have shown stable performance, while low - rating convertible bonds have weaker downside resistance and greater rebound potential [60][61]. 3.3. Tracking of Convertible Bond Supply and Terms 3.3.1. This Week's Primary Market Issuance Plans - One new convertible bond was listed this week, and three were issued but not yet listed. There were 11 primary approvals this week, and Jinchengxin received approval from the CSRC to issue 2 billion yuan of convertible bonds [68]. 3.3.2. Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses - This week, 7 convertible bonds announced potential downward revisions, 7 announced no downward revisions, 1 proposed a downward revision, and Ou 22 Convertible Bond announced the result of a downward revision. Also, 7 convertible bonds announced potential redemptions, 4 announced no early redemptions, and 9 announced early redemptions. As of the end of this week, 3 convertible bonds were still in the put - option period, and 16 were in the company's capital - reduction repayment period [73][76][79].

Group 1 - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise in early trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.16% at 3849.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.93%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.34%, reaching a new high since February 2022 [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 18,752 billion yuan, an increase of 670 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 2,000 stocks rising across the market [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF (511130) experienced fluctuations, rising by 18 basis points during the day, with a trading volume exceeding 2.1 billion yuan and a turnover rate of over 11%, indicating active trading [1] Group 2 - Recent adjustments in government bond yields began after the close of government bond futures yesterday and continued today, suggesting that fixed-income funds are optimistic about equities and are waiting to increase their positions [1] - The sentiment in the equity market has shown a strong recovery, with a resurgence in bullish sentiment expected to continue in the short term following a brief adjustment period before September 3 [1] Group 3 - The 10-year government bond yield is currently fluctuating between 1.75% and 1.80%, while the 30-year yield is between 1.98% and 2.05%, indicating a potential key resistance level at 1.8% [3] - The 30-year government bond ETF (511130), established in March 2024, is one of only two long-duration bond ETFs in the market, tracking the "Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-Year Government Bond Index" [3] - The index reflects the overall performance of 30-year government bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a duration of approximately 21 years, making it highly sensitive to interest rate changes [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to enter a high-level oscillation phase, waiting for a direction decision. It is recommended to buy put options to protect long positions or partially take profits on previous positions [2]. - The bond market sentiment is expected to continue to stabilize, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions on bond futures during pullbacks [2]. - Gold is oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to buy gold options and construct a bull spread strategy. Silver long positions should be held above $38 [2]. - The container shipping index is weakly oscillating, and short positions on the October contract should be continued [2]. - For steel products, it is possible to try long positions as the apparent demand has stopped falling and rebounded. For iron ore, coking coal, coke, etc., it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. - For non-ferrous metals, copper is expected to see inventory depletion near the peak season, and it is recommended to refer to the price range. For other non-ferrous metals, different trading strategies are given according to their respective fundamentals [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different trading strategies are provided for each variety based on their supply and demand, cost, and other factors [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different trading strategies are recommended for each variety according to their market conditions [2]. - For special commodities, trading strategies such as taking partial profits on previous short positions and going short at high prices are proposed [2]. - In the new energy sector, it is recommended to wait and see for polysilicon and lithium carbonate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market is expected to enter high-level oscillation. It is recommended to buy put options to protect long positions or partially take profits on previous positions [2]. - **Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment is expected to continue to stabilize. It is advisable to lightly test long positions on bond futures during pullbacks [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to buy gold options and construct a bull spread strategy. Silver long positions should be held above $38 [2]. Commodity Sector - **Shipping Index**: The container shipping index is weakly oscillating, and short positions on the October contract should be continued [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: For steel products, it is possible to try long positions as the apparent demand has stopped falling and rebounded. For iron ore, it is recommended to go long at low prices in the range of 770 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Due to a sudden mine accident and partial coal mine shutdowns, coking coal futures are expected to rebound. It is recommended to go long at low prices. Coke is also recommended to go long at low prices as the coking profit continues to repair [2]. - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Copper is expected to see inventory depletion near the peak season. Different trading strategies are given for other non-ferrous metals according to their fundamentals [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different trading strategies are provided for each variety based on their supply and demand, cost, and other factors, such as going long, shorting, or waiting and seeing [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different trading strategies are recommended for each variety according to their market conditions, such as going long, shorting, or waiting and seeing [2]. - **Special Commodities**: Trading strategies such as taking partial profits on previous short positions and going short at high prices are proposed [2]. - **New Energy**: It is recommended to wait and see for polysilicon and lithium carbonate [2].

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments in August, leading to pressure on the net value of many medium- and long-term pure bond funds due to rising interest rates and fund redemptions [1] - Fund managers are adopting different strategies in response to the current market conditions, with some actively positioning for what they see as a buying opportunity, while others are taking a more cautious approach by shortening duration and enhancing liquidity [1][2] - The 10-year government bond yield has fluctuated, dropping below 1.65% in early July and approaching 1.8% by late August, indicating a volatile bond market [2] Group 2 - Some fund managers, like Wang Peng, have begun to increase their positions in the bond market, believing that current yields present a good buying point, with expectations of a potential market rally by year-end [2] - Other managers, such as Hu Zhilei, suggest that the bond market's current pricing offers high value, and they recommend gradually increasing positions to capitalize on potential market recovery [2][3] - There is a cautious optimism among some fund managers regarding the bond market, with expectations of maintaining a low interest rate environment and continued monetary policy support, while also acknowledging the potential for short-term volatility [3]