Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening the Construction of the National Carbon Market" marks the first central document in China's carbon market sector, outlining a medium to long-term development roadmap and tasks for the national carbon market [2] Group 1: National Carbon Market Development - The national carbon market has formed a multi-level and relatively complete regulatory system over four years, with an expanding coverage of key industries, now including steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, which together account for over 60% of national carbon emissions [1] - As of August 22, 2025, the cumulative transaction volume of carbon emission allowances in the national carbon market reached 680 million tons, with a transaction value of 47.41 billion yuan, while the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction market recorded a cumulative transaction of 2.49 million tons and a value of 210 million yuan [1] Group 2: Future Directions and Strategies - The plan emphasizes expanding the coverage of the mandatory carbon market based on industry development status, pollution reduction contributions, data quality, and carbon emission characteristics, transitioning from intensity control to total control of carbon emissions [2] - The allocation of carbon allowances will shift from entirely free to a combination of free and paid allocations, gradually increasing the proportion of paid allocations [2] - The development of voluntary carbon markets will be promoted, establishing a comprehensive methodological system for key areas such as ecosystem carbon sinks and methane reduction [2] Group 3: Financial Integration and Regulation - Collaboration with financial institutions will be explored to develop green financial products related to carbon emissions and certified voluntary reduction volumes, including policies for carbon pledges and buybacks [2] - Strict regulations on carbon emission verification will be enforced, enhancing the accountability of key emission units for carbon accounting and reporting, while improving the quality of carbon emission data through comprehensive supervision [3] - Continuous improvement of relevant laws and regulations will be pursued to strengthen the institutional foundation for carbon market construction, aiming for a more effective, vibrant, and internationally influential national carbon market [3]

Market Dynamics - A-shares ended their continuous rise, showing a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.75% [2] - Over 2800 stocks rose, with a trading volume of 2.71 trillion yuan, although this was a decrease of over 460 billion yuan from the previous trading day, it still indicates a high level of activity [2] - Consumer electronics stocks were active, with companies like GoerTek hitting the daily limit, and the Huawei supply chain also performing well [2] Macro Policy - Shanghai has optimized its real estate policies, allowing eligible families to purchase an unlimited number of homes outside the outer ring and increasing the personal housing provident fund loan limit, effective from August 26, 2025 [3] - Beijing recently lifted purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road, signaling a positive policy shift in major cities [3] - The Central Committee and State Council issued opinions on promoting green and low-carbon transformation, aiming for comprehensive coverage of major industrial sectors in the national carbon market by 2027 [3] Industry Trends - The National Press and Publication Administration announced the approval of 173 video game titles in August 2025, including 166 domestic and 7 imported games, marking a new monthly high for 2025 [5] - The summer box office for films has surpassed 11 billion yuan, with "Nanjing Photo Studio" leading at 2.7 billion yuan [6] Corporate Dynamics - Pinduoduo reported Q2 2025 revenue of 103.98 billion yuan, a 7% year-on-year increase, but net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders fell by 4% [7] - Muyuan Foods released its semi-annual report, achieving revenue of 76.46 billion yuan, a 34.46% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 10.53 billion yuan, up 1169.77% [7] - Huawei is set to launch a new AI SSD product on August 27, with its annual conference scheduled for September 18-20, 2025, in Shanghai [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will face continuous pressure. However, with anti - involution speculation, there may be variables. It is recommended to go long on the soda ash main contract at low levels in the short term [2]. - For glass, the current situation is not optimistic. Although there is a small increase in deep - processing orders in the downstream, the overall inventory is rising slightly. It is recommended to go long on the glass main contract at low levels, but short - term long positions have limited opportunities [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1311 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan; glass main contract closing price: 1173 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan [2]. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 138 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; soda ash main contract open interest: 1,399,714 lots, up 13,450 lots; glass main contract open interest: 1,196,769 lots, down 4,653 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net positions: - 313,904 lots, up 11,584 lots; glass top 20 net positions: - 245,653 lots, down 10,925 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 9,313 tons, up 249 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 2,099 tons, up 456 tons [2]. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: - 111 yuan/ton, unchanged; glass September - January contract spread: - 189 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis: - 91 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; glass basis: - 109 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1,220 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China heavy soda ash: 1,325 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash: 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash: 1,215 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - Shahe glass large plate: 1,064 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass large plate: 1,090 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 88.48%, up 1.16 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.34%, unchanged [2]. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.96 million tons/year, unchanged; glass in - production production lines: 223, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 1.8881 million tons, down 22,700 tons; glass enterprise inventory: 63,606,000 weight boxes, up 180,000 weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area: 35,206 million square meters, up 4,841.68 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area: 25,034 million square meters, up 2,467.39 million square meters [2]. Industry News - National policies include improving domestic demand policies, promoting green - low - carbon transformation, and supporting forestry development [2]. - Soda ash supply is increasing, but profit recovery is not sustainable. Glass production is at a low level due to the impact of high - temperature weather on the real - estate industry [2]. - Shanghai has optimized real - estate and housing - loan policies [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash supply is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will be under pressure. Although there may be speculation about supply cuts, the de - stocking process will be repeated [2]. - Glass supply remains stable at a low level, demand from the real - estate industry is weak, and the inventory is rising slightly. The de - stocking trend remains unchanged, and there is a possibility of restocking [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing a national carbon market as a key policy tool to address climate change and promote a green and low-carbon transformation of the economy and society [2][4]. Summary by Sections Overall Requirements - The goal is to build a unified national carbon market that balances green low-carbon transformation with economic development needs, optimizing resource allocation efficiency and maximizing benefits [5]. - By 2027, the national carbon emission trading market will cover major industrial sectors, and by 2030, a comprehensive carbon pricing mechanism will be established [5]. Accelerating the Construction of the National Carbon Emission Trading Market - The coverage of the national carbon emission trading market will be expanded based on industry development, pollution reduction contributions, and carbon emission characteristics [7]. - A transparent carbon emission quota management system will be established, transitioning from intensity control to total control by 2027 [7]. - Guidance and supervision of existing carbon trading pilot markets will be strengthened to support regional green low-carbon transformation [8]. Actively Developing the National Voluntary Greenhouse Gas Reduction Trading Market - A comprehensive methodology system will be established to support voluntary reduction projects, ensuring integrity and social supervision [9]. - Encouragement for government agencies and enterprises to use certified voluntary reduction credits to offset carbon emissions [9]. Enhancing Market Vitality - Financial institutions will be encouraged to develop green financial products related to carbon emissions, enhancing support for greenhouse gas reduction [10]. - The participation of banks and other financial institutions in the carbon market will be promoted, along with the gradual inclusion of individuals in the voluntary reduction trading market [10]. Strengthening Carbon Market Capacity Building - A management system that aligns with the development stages of the national carbon market will be established, enhancing data security and operational efficiency [12]. - The carbon emission accounting and reporting management will be improved, with a focus on accurate and credible verification processes [12]. Strengthening Organizational Implementation Support - Local governments are urged to strengthen leadership and policy support for carbon market construction and management [14]. - Legal frameworks will be developed to support carbon market operations, including regulations for voluntary reduction trading [15]. - International cooperation will be enhanced to align with global climate change initiatives and promote the sharing of best practices [15].

Market Analysis - In July, the global economic data remained resilient. China's official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, while the non - manufacturing sector stayed in expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in dollar terms, higher than expected. Financial data showed that money supply exceeded expectations, but financing and loan data were still weak. Investment data faced significant pressure [2]. - The State Council emphasized measures to stabilize the real - estate market. The central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operations, with a net MLF injection of 300 billion yuan in August, and a total net medium - term liquidity injection of 600 billion yuan [2]. - A - shares had a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3900 points and the trading volume reaching 3.14 trillion yuan. AI hardware stocks soared, and sectors like real estate and liquor rose. In the bond market, treasury bond futures went up, with the 30 - year main contract rising over 0.7%. Domestic commodity futures all increased, led by coking coal and coke. The RMB central parity rate was raised by 160 points [2]. - In the US, the July non - farm payroll data was lower than expected, but the August PMI continued to improve. The "Big Beautiful" Act might support subsequent consumption [2]. Policy and Tariff News - On July 31, the White House re - set "reciprocal tariff" rates for some countries. On August 19, the US Commerce Department added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tariff rate. Trump said he would announce semiconductor tariffs within two weeks, with a possible rate of 300% [3]. - On August 22, Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting showed a dovish turn, suggesting a possible policy adjustment due to increased downside risks to employment. This cleared the way for a Fed rate cut in September [3]. Commodity Analysis - The black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to domestic supply - side factors. The energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the non - ferrous sector's supply constraints remain unrelieved [3]. - The government will regulate the photovoltaic industry to prevent low - price competition. By 2027, industries with relatively stable carbon emissions will be subject to quota - based total control. OPEC+ accelerated production, increasing by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected [3]. - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of products like methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worth attention. Agricultural products are currently driven by tariffs and inflation expectations but need fundamental signals [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products on dips [4]. To - do List - This week, 2.077 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases in the Chinese central bank's open market will mature, and there will also be 300 billion yuan of MLF and 90 billion yuan of term reverse repurchases maturing [5]. - On August 25, the National Development and Reform Commission held a corporate symposium to listen to opinions on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment [5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index continued to reach a new high in more than a decade, approaching 3900 points. Over 3300 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rose, and the trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan [5]. - On August 25, the Ukrainian president announced that Ukraine and the US would hold talks this weekend to discuss the possibility of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia [3][5].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a black metal research report by the Commodity Research Institute, dated August 26, 2025 [3][6] - The researchers are Zhou Tao, Ding Zuchao, and Qi Chunyi [3] Group 2: Steel Related Information - The central government plans to strengthen the national carbon market by 2027 and form a carbon pricing mechanism by 2030 [3] - As of July, the national power generation capacity was 36.7 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing rapidly [3] - On August 25, the average cost of 76 independent EAF construction steel mills was 3347 yuan/ton, with an average loss of 99 yuan/ton and a valley electricity profit of 1 yuan/ton [3] - Spot prices in Shanghai and Beijing increased, with Shanghai rebar at 3310 yuan (+320), Beijing rebar at 3250 (+10), Shanghai hot-rolled coil at 3430 yuan (+30), and Tianjin hot-rolled coil at 3380 yuan (+20) [4] Logical Analysis - The black - plate oscillated weakly on the night of August 23. Construction steel sales on the 25th were 11110 tons [5] - Steel production resumed last week, with rebar production decreasing and hot - rolled coil increasing. The five major steel products accumulated inventory, but the speed slowed down [5] - Steel exports remained strong, and hot - rolled apparent demand was high. Building material demand rebounded from the bottom [5] - Steel demand improved, iron - water production remained high, and exports were strong, supporting steel prices [5] - As the parade approaches, iron - water production is expected to decrease next week, relieving supply pressure [5] - A coal mine accident in Fujian increased the expectation of coal mine production cuts, supporting pre - parade steel prices [5] - After August, coal consumption will decline, and if the coal mine production cut expectation fails, post - parade steel prices may face pressure [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [7] - Arbitrage: Close profitable long - short positions [8] - Options: Wait and see [9] Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Related Information - Henan coke enterprises will limit production by 20 - 35% from August 25 to September 3, and some have already implemented a 30 - 35% limit [10] - The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton [10][17] Logical Analysis - Coking coal prices fluctuated, and downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened. Coke supply and demand were in a tight balance, and mainstream coke enterprises planned an eighth price increase [12] - National coal mine safety work is expected to be stricter, which will affect coal supply and gradually increase the coking coal price center [12] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Oscillate strongly. Buy on dips [13] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13] - Options: Wait and see [13] - Spot - futures: Wait and see [13] Group 4: Iron Ore Related Information - Shanghai optimized real - estate policies, including relaxed purchase restrictions and tax exemptions [14] - The National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment [14] - From August 18 - 24, global iron ore shipments were 3315800 tons, a decrease of 90800 tons. Australia and Brazil shipments increased by 4400 tons [14] - Qingdao Port PB powder spot was 780 yuan (+13), and the 01 iron ore main contract basis was 36 [14] Logical Analysis - Iron ore prices fell slightly at night, and market sentiment was volatile [15] - In the past month, mainstream mine shipments increased year - on - year, with Australia flat and Brazil growing rapidly. Non - mainstream mine shipments were high in August [15] - In July, manufacturing and infrastructure investment growth slowed down. Manufacturing steel demand growth weakened, suppressing terminal steel demand [15] Trading Strategies - The report does not provide specific trading strategies for iron ore, only indicating that the above views are for reference only [16] Group 5: Ferroalloys Related Information - The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton [17] - Shanghai optimized real - estate policies, including relaxed purchase restrictions [17] Logical Analysis - On the 25th, ferrosilicon spot prices were weak, with some areas up 50 yuan/ton. Last week's production growth slowed down, and futures prices were close to production costs after a sharp decline [18][20] - On the 25th, manganese ore spot prices were weak, and manganese - silicon spot prices were strong, with some areas up 70 yuan/ton. Production growth slowed down, and demand showed no downward trend [20] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Futures prices are close to production costs, and high - premium risks have been released. Expect bottom - oscillating [21] - Arbitrage: Gradually take profits on spot - futures long positions [21] - Options: Sell straddle option combinations at high prices [21]

Core Viewpoint - The document outlines the importance of the carbon market as a policy tool for addressing climate change and promoting a comprehensive green transition in China's economic and social development [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Carbon Market Development - China has established a national carbon emissions trading market for key emission units to fulfill mandatory reduction responsibilities and a voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market to incentivize social self-reduction [1] Future Goals - By 2027, the national carbon emissions trading market is expected to cover major emission industries in the industrial sector, while the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market aims for full coverage in key areas [1] - By 2030, the goal is to establish a carbon emissions trading market based on total quota control, combining free and paid allocation, and to create a voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market that is credible, transparent, methodologically unified, widely participatory, and aligned with international standards [1] Pricing Mechanism - The aim is to form a carbon pricing mechanism that demonstrates significant reduction effects, has a sound rule system, and maintains reasonable price levels [1]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Data - GDP in Q2 2025 grew 5.2% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the 4.7% in the same period last year [1] - In July 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and 49.4% in the same period last year [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI for business activities in July 2025 was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month but slightly higher than the 50.2% in the same period last year [1] Group 2: Commodity Investment Comprehensive - Shanghai introduced a package of real estate policies, including relaxed housing purchase restrictions, increased housing provident fund loan limits for green buildings, and unified mortgage rates for first and second homes [2] - The CPC Central Committee General Office and the State Council General Office issued an opinion on promoting green - low - carbon transformation and strengthening the national carbon market, aiming to basically complete the national carbon emission trading market by 2030 [2] - The CSRC issued the Interim Provisions on the Internet Marketing Management of Futures Companies, which will take effect on October 9 [2] Metals - KGHM's copper production in July was 59,900 tons, a 2.4% year - on - year decrease, and sales were 56,700 tons, a 4.9% year - on - year decrease [3] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - On August 25, futures prices of iron ore, hot - rolled coils, and rebar rose. Rebar's performance this year has been mainly affected by the real estate industry [4] - In mid - August, key steel enterprises produced 21.15 million tons of crude steel, a 1.98% month - on - month and 6.1% year - on - year increase [4][5] - Henan coking enterprises will implement production cuts from August 25 to September 3, with an estimated reduction of 20 - 35% [5] Energy and Chemicals - Domestic refined oil prices may be lowered for the seventh time this year, with an expected reduction of about 200 yuan/ton on August 26 [6] - On August 25, international oil prices continued to rise, supported by geopolitical tensions and supply - side factors [6] - The Ministry of Natural Resources organized the listing of 7 oil and gas exploration rights, indicating a new wave of oil and gas exploration and development [6] Agricultural Products - As of mid - August, the price of soybean meal rose 2.59% month - on - month to 3049.3 yuan/ton, reaching a new high since early May [8] - The price of soybeans rose 1.2% month - on - month to 4443.1 yuan/ton, a new high since early August 2024 [8] - The price of live pigs (outside ternary) fell 0.72% month - on - month to 13.8 yuan/kg, a new low since late February 2024 [8] Group 3: Financial News Open Market - On August 25, the central bank conducted 288.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 21.9 billion yuan [11] - The central bank successfully issued 45 billion yuan of RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong [11] Important News - Shanghai introduced real estate policies to stimulate the market [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission will improve policies to expand domestic demand [12] - Multiple regions issued plans to promote the high - quality development of the private economy [12] Bond Market Summary - Bond futures and spot bonds showed an independent trend. Yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined, and long - term bonds performed better than short - term bonds [15] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.46% to 490.98 points, hitting a new high in more than ten years [16] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1517 on August 25, up 288 points from the previous trading day [20] - The US dollar index rose 0.74% to 98.44 in late New York trading, and most non - US currencies fell [20] Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that in a slow - bull stock market, bond trading can increase portfolio returns, and the current credit bond carry trade space is high [22] - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the current bond market has weak coupon protection and high volatility, and recommends curve steepening trades [22] Group 4: Stock Market - A - share major indices rose significantly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.51% to 3883.56 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index also had large gains [26] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.94% to 25829.91 points, hitting a new high in nearly four years [26] - The scale of China's ETF market is about to reach 5 trillion yuan [26]

Overall Requirements - The carbon market is a crucial policy tool for addressing climate change and promoting a comprehensive green transition in economic and social development [1] - The construction of a unified national carbon market is prioritized, with a focus on optimizing resource allocation efficiency and maximizing benefits [1] Main Goals - By 2027, the national carbon emission trading market will cover major industrial sectors, and the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market will achieve full coverage in key areas [2] - By 2030, a comprehensive carbon emission trading market will be established, featuring a combination of free and paid allocation methods, with a transparent and internationally aligned voluntary reduction trading market [2] Accelerating Carbon Emission Trading Market Construction - The coverage of the national carbon emission trading market will be expanded based on industry development, pollution reduction contributions, data quality, and carbon emission characteristics [2][3] - A transparent carbon emission quota management system will be established, with a gradual shift from intensity control to total control of carbon emissions [3] Developing Voluntary Greenhouse Gas Reduction Trading Market - A comprehensive methodology system will be established to support voluntary reduction projects, ensuring effective management throughout the project lifecycle [4] - The application of certified voluntary reduction amounts will be promoted across various sectors, with an emphasis on enhancing international recognition [5] Enhancing Market Vitality - Financial institutions will be encouraged to develop green financial products related to carbon emissions, expanding channels for corporate carbon asset management [6] - The introduction of new trading entities, including individuals, will be supported to enhance market participation [6] Strengthening Carbon Market Capacity Building - A management system that aligns with the development stages of the national carbon market will be established, focusing on efficient operation and clear responsibilities [7] - The carbon emission accounting and reporting management will be improved, with a focus on establishing a robust reporting system for enterprises [7] Organizational Implementation Assurance - Local governments and relevant departments are tasked with implementing the guidelines effectively, ensuring policy support for carbon market operations [10] - Legal frameworks will be developed to support carbon market construction, including regulations for voluntary reduction trading [10][11]

坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻党的二十大和二十届二中、三中全会精 神，全面贯彻习近平经济思想、习近平生态文明思想，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，兼顾绿色低碳转型和 经济发展需要，坚持有效市场、有为政府，坚持碳市场作为控制温室气体排放政策工具的基本定位，加 快建设全国统一的碳市场，有计划分步骤扩大实施范围、扩展参与主体，营造更加公平公开透明的市场 环境，努力实现碳排放资源配置效率最优化和效益最大化，推动传统产业深度转型，培育发展新质生产 力，激发全社会绿色低碳发展内生动力，为积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和、建设美丽中国提供重要支撑。 8月25日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅《关于推进绿色低碳转型加强全国碳市场建设的意见》对外 公布。 这份意见明确，碳市场是利用市场机制积极应对气候变化、加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型的重要政策 工具。目前，我国已建立重点排放单位履行强制减排责任的全国碳排放权交易市场和激励社会自主减排 的全国温室气体自愿减排交易市场。 这份意见提出，到2027年，全国碳排放权交易市场基本覆盖工业领域主要排放行业，全国温室气体自愿 减排交易市场实现重点领域全覆盖。到2030年，基本建成以配 ...