国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 16 日 星期五 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周四（5 月 15 日）A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.68%，收报 3380.82 点；深 证成指跌 1.62%，收报 10186.45 点；创业板指跌 1.91%，收报 2043.25 点。沪深两市成交额 11524 亿，较昨日缩 量 1643 亿。 沪深 300 指数 5 月 15 日回调整理，收盘 3907.20，环比下跌 36.01。 【焦炭 焦煤】5 月 15 日焦炭加权指数窄幅整理，收盘价 1473.2 元，环比上涨 5.8。 5 月 15 日，焦煤加权指数窄幅震荡，收盘价 883.5 元，环比上涨 3.1。 客服产品系列•日评 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：钢厂提出节后焦炭首轮降价。国家相关部委正在积极部署和推进全国粗钢产量调控工作，工业和信息 化部正在加紧修订《钢铁行业产能置换实施办法》，目前已形成初稿。基本面，短期供应弹性好于焦煤，铁水产 量上升空间有限。利润方面，本期全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利 1 元/吨，钢厂提出节后焦炭首轮降价。 焦煤：蒙 5#原煤报 820，价 ...

焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/5/15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 883.00 | -11.50↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1472.00 | -10.00↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 464062.00 | +8827.00↑ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 51651.00 | -756.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -58511.00 | -6278.00↓ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -117.00 | +44.00↑ | | | JM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 16.00 | -0.50↓ | J1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 26.50 | +0.50↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 3700.00 | +100.00↑ | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 1630.00 | -110.00↓ | | | 干 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 14, the JM2509 contract closed at 894.5, up 2.11%. The spot price of Meng 5 raw coal remained stable. After China adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods from the US, market pessimism improved, and coal prices rebounded from the low level. Fundamentally, supply was loose, mine production was stable, and the inventory of clean coal continued to increase. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the operation should be treated as a volatile one [2]. - On May 14, the J2509 contract closed at 1482.0, up 1.58%. On the spot side, steel mills proposed the first round of price cuts for coke after the holiday. Relevant national ministries and commissions were actively deploying and promoting the adjustment of national crude steel production. The short - term supply elasticity of coke was better than that of coking coal, and the room for the increase of hot metal production was limited. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 1 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the operation should be treated as a volatile one [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为894.50元/吨，环比上涨24.00元；J主力合约收盘价为1482.00元/吨，环比上涨35.00元；JM期货合约持仓量为455235.00手，环比减少30373.00手；J期货合约持仓量为52407.00手，环比减少2000.00手 [2]. - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 52233.00手，环比增加5533.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 161.00手，环比减少131.00手；JM1 - 9月合约价差为16.50元/吨，环比增加5.50元；J1 - 9月合约价差为26.00元/吨，环比减少2.00元 [2]. - 焦煤仓单为3600.00张，环比减少1500.00张；焦炭仓单为1740.00张，环比增加50.00张；JM主力合约基差为205.50元/吨，环比减少24.00元；J主力合约基差为148.00元/吨，环比减少35.00元 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为820.00元/吨，价格不变；唐山准一级冶金焦价格为1630.00元/吨，价格不变；俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为120.00美元/湿吨，价格不变；唐山二级冶金焦价格为1635.00元/吨，价格不变 [2]. - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1280.00元/吨，价格不变；京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1320.00元/吨，价格不变；山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1100.00元/吨，价格不变；内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1150.00元/吨，价格不变 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 110家洗煤厂原煤库存为305.51万吨，环比增加15.66万吨；110家洗煤厂精煤库存为203.26万吨，环比增加5.98万吨；110家洗煤厂开工率为62.08%，环比下降0.34% [2]. - 原煤产量为44058.20万吨，环比增加173.40万吨；煤及褐煤进口量为3782.50万吨，环比减少90.50万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为202.10万吨，环比增加0.40万吨 [2]. - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为545.97万吨，环比减少29.01万吨；焦炭18个港口库存为283.68万吨，环比减少7.11万吨 [2]. 3.4 National Industry Situation - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为916.62万吨，环比减少42.66万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭库存为94.44万吨，环比减少4.52万吨；247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为787.21万吨，环比增加2.42万吨；全国247家样本钢厂焦炭库存为671.03万吨，环比减少4.19万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.51天，环比增加0.05天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为12.10天，环比减少0.07天；炼焦煤进口量为858.81万吨，环比减少29.51万吨；焦炭及半焦炭出口量为76.00万吨，环比增加34.00万吨 [2]. - 炼焦煤产量为4161.47万吨，环比增加538.88万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为75.44%，环比下降0.12%；独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为1.00元/吨，环比增加7.00元；焦炭产量为4129.40万吨，环比增加4129.40万吨 [2]. 3.5 National Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为84.64%，环比增加0.29%；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为92.11%，环比增加0.08%；粗钢产量为9284.14万吨，环比增加1687.22万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - 山东钢铁表示2025年铁矿石市场将呈现“供强需弱”特征，长期价格下移为大概率事件 [2]. - 印度政府拟对美国部分出口至印度的产品征收关税，因美国钢铝关税影响价值76亿美元的印度产品出口 [2]. - 多家上市银行及地方农商行发布收购村镇银行公告，2024年近100家村镇银行解散，一季度超40家银行退出市场，村镇银行占比较大 [2]. - 2024年中拉贸易额5184.7亿美元创历史新高，同比增长6.0%，1 - 3月中拉贸易总额1183.0亿美元，中国出口657.3亿美元，进口525.8亿美元，中国对拉美直接投资流量147.1亿美元 [2].

Variety Insights Stock Index Futures - On May 13th, the three major A-share indexes fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17% to 3374.87 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.13% to 10288.08 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.12% to 2062.26 points. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.2916 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 16.9 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3896.26, up 5.65 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On May 13th, the weighted coke index was weak, closing at 1450.0 yuan, down 9.5. The weighted coking coal index remained weak, closing at 871.0 yuan, down 7.5. After the first round of price increase for coke, the price remained stable. The relevant national ministries are actively deploying and promoting the regulation of national crude steel production, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is revising the Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry. The short - term supply elasticity of coke is better than that of coking coal, and the increase in hot metal production is limited. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 1 yuan/ton. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is 820 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the mine production is stable, with a significant increase in clean coal inventory this period [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the technical adjustment of the US sugar and the bearish monthly report of the Market Early - Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated downward on May 13th and rose at night due to short - covering. As of the end of April 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China was 11.11 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons year - on - year. The sugar production forecast for the 2024/25 season has been further raised to 11.15 million tons, and it is predicted that the sugar production in 2025/26 will continue to increase slightly to 11.2 million tons. India has set a sugarcane production target of 467 million tons for 2025 - 26, higher than last year's 436.08 million tons [2]. Rubber - Affected by the technical adjustment due to the recent sharp increase, the Shanghai rubber fluctuated and closed slightly higher on May 13th and continued to rise slightly at night. As of May 11th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 618,700 tons, an increase of 4500 tons or 0.73% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 5.89% to 90,000 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.09% to 528,700 tons. The automobile market performed well in April, and the production and sales in the first four months of this year exceeded 10 million for the first time in history [3]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, on May 13th, the CBOT soybean futures prices closed higher. The US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report lowered the US soybean production forecast, and the easing of Sino - US trade relations was also positive. The USDA expects the ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/2026 to be 295 million bushels, lower than the analysts' pre - report estimate of 362 million bushels. The sown area is expected to be 83.5 million acres, the yield per acre to be 52.5 bushels, and the production to be 4.34 billion bushels. In the domestic market, on May 13th, the soybean meal futures prices fluctuated weakly. The M2509 contract closed at 2886 yuan/ton, down 0.76%. After May, the arrival of imported soybeans increased rapidly, the oil mill operating rate continued to rise, and the soybean meal inventory stopped falling and rebounded slowly, remaining at a low level. The soybean meal market may fluctuate weakly in the context of loose supply [4][5]. Live Hogs - On May 13th, the live hog futures fluctuated. The LH2509 main contract closed at 13,885 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The overall consumer demand is weak, with more alternative consumption, and the sales of fresh pork are poor. The breeding side is normalizing the slaughter, and the average slaughter weight is high. According to the inventory of breeding sows, the theoretical supply of live hogs will increase month - by - month in the second quarter. In the long - term, the live hog futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend [6]. Palm Oil - On May 13th, palm oil rose first and then fell, continuing the weak and volatile trend. The main contract P2509 closed with a negative line, with the highest price of 8082, the lowest price of 7938, and the closing price of 7954, down 0.87% from the previous day. From May 1 - 10, 2025, the palm oil yield in Malaysia increased by 20.2%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4%, and the production increased by 22.31%. In April, Malaysia's palm oil imports decreased by 52.17% month - on - month, production increased by 21.52% month - on - month, and exports increased by 9.62% month - on - month [6]. Shanghai Copper - On May 13th, the main Shanghai copper contract CU2506 opened at 78,080 yuan/ton, reached a high of 78,190 yuan/ton, a low of 77,620 yuan/ton, and closed at 77,820 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The trading volume was 39,435 lots, and the open interest was 180,978 lots. The price first rose, then fell, and then stabilized. The fundamental supply - demand relationship has weakened, with increased supply and decreased demand, but the price is also supported to some extent [7]. Iron Ore - On May 13th, the iron ore 2509 main contract fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 1.06% and a closing price of 714.5 yuan. The overseas shipment and arrival of iron ore decreased this period, the supply tightened, and the growth rate of hot metal production slowed down but remained at a high level. In the short - term, iron ore will show a volatile trend [7]. Asphalt - On May 13th, the asphalt 2506 main contract fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 0.69% and a closing price of 3485 yuan. With the recovery of refinery processing profit, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased month - on - month, the social inventory accumulated slightly, and the demand release was still average. In the short - term, asphalt will show a volatile trend [7]. Logs - On May 13th, the 2507 log contract opened at 804, with the lowest price of 784, the highest price of 805, and closed at 788, with a reduction of 7285 lots. The support level is at 780, and the resistance level is at 803. The spot prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous day. The port log inventory decreased to a two - month low, with a slight increase in outbound volume. The overall demand is weak, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions [8]. Cotton - On the night of May 13th, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13,335 yuan/ton. The lowest basis price of cotton in the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Exchange on May 13th was 610 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 41 lots from the previous day. According to the USDA's May global cotton supply - demand forecast report, the global cotton production in 2025/26 will decrease year - on - year but remain at the second - highest level in the past five years, while consumption will increase year - on - year and reach the highest level in the past five years [9]. Steel - On May 13th, rb2510 closed at 3079 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3215 yuan/ton. The US will reduce the tariff on most Chinese goods from 145% to 30% before May 14th, and China will reduce the tariff on US products from 125% to 10%. The consensus of the Sino - US economic and trade negotiation exceeded market expectations, boosting market sentiment. The fundamental supply - demand relationship of rebar has weakened, but the macro - sentiment has strengthened. In the short - term, the rebar futures may show a volatile trend [9]. Alumina - On May 13th, ao2509 closed at 2840 yuan/ton. The spot trading price of alumina continued to rise, and the indexes in various regions increased by about 10 yuan. Recently, the capacity for maintenance and production reduction of alumina has been increasing, and the production has decreased periodically, with the industry inventory turning to decline. However, once the profit is restored, the capacity will resume production on a large scale, and new capacities in Shandong and Hebei will gradually produce finished products. The cost of Guinean bauxite has dropped from 110 US dollars at the beginning of the year to 75 US dollars, and the average cost of alumina has dropped to around 2900 yuan [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - On May 13th, al2506 closed at 20,005 yuan/ton. The result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation exceeded expectations, improving the macro - sentiment. Some short - sellers left the market, pushing up the aluminum price with reduced positions. However, the peak season is over, and the weakening demand expectation restricts the increase in aluminum price. In the short - term, pay attention to the 20,000 - yuan/ton level, and in the medium - term, pay attention to whether the tariff negotiation result will lead to enterprises' rush - to - export and improve the aluminum demand situation [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The index price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,762 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,400 - 65,800 yuan/ton, with an average of 64,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,450 - 63,450 yuan/ton, with an average of 62,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The spot trading price of lithium carbonate has temporarily stabilized. The downstream procurement willingness is weak, and the overall demand is mainly met by customer - supplied and long - term contracts. The upstream lithium salt factories have a strong willingness to support the price under cost - loss pressure. Only some transactions occur between traders and downstream enterprises. There may be a rush - to - export expectation for Chinese energy - storage cells within the 90 - day tariff - exemption period, which may drive up the demand for lithium carbonate. However, considering the high inventory level and the continuous decline in ore prices, the price of lithium carbonate is likely to show a low - level volatile trend with a greater possibility of decline [10][11].

Group 1: Steel Price Trends - Since April, steel prices have been operating at low levels, with a focus on fundamental logic as the "tariff war" with the U.S. eases, but prices remain under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand [1] - The steel price outlook is expected to be neutral to slightly bearish in the short to medium term, primarily due to the ongoing supply-demand imbalance [7] Group 2: Real Estate Market Impact - The real estate market shows signs of improvement, but its support for construction steel prices is limited, with national real estate development investment in the first quarter at approximately 1.99 trillion yuan, down 9.9% year-on-year [2] - New housing starts and completions have seen significant declines, with new starts down 24.4% and completions down 14.3% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure on steel prices from the construction sector [3] Group 3: Export Dynamics - In March, China exported 10.46 million tons of steel, with cumulative exports from January to March at 27.43 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, while imports decreased by 11.3% [4] - The price advantage of Chinese steel and declining overseas crude steel production are contributing to continued export growth, although future exports may face pressure from rising international trade protectionism [4] Group 4: Production and Profitability - In March, China's crude steel production reached 92.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with a high operating rate of 84.33% among steel mills, indicating strong production activity despite low prices [5] - Steel mills are experiencing improved profitability, which reduces the likelihood of voluntary production cuts, although some mills in Xinjiang have announced production reductions [5][6] Group 5: Product-Specific Trends - In March, rebar production was 18.61 million tons, up 5.6% year-on-year, while the production of medium and heavy wide steel plates increased by 8.5% [7] - The production adjustments between rebar and hot-rolled coils are expected to become more flexible in the coming months, influenced by export conditions [7]

2025 年 5 月 9 日 下游需求转淡 钢价偏弱走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 钢材月报 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 14 ⚫ 供给端：上月钢材生产总体平稳，结构上长流程增 产、短流程减产。螺纹钢周产量维持在230万吨左右， 长流程贡献202万吨，短流程减至26.7万吨；热卷产 量保持320万吨高位，钢厂铁水向板材倾斜。短期高 供应仍是主基调，后市关注政策调控对市场的影响。 ⚫ 需求端：钢材继续面临着内需缓慢恢复、外需承压 的不利格局。房建需求仍是主要拖累项，基建支撑 有限。新房销售及施工端未见明显改善，4月建材需 求 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests that the coke market is facing downward pressure due to high inventory and weak post - holiday market sentiment. The macro - environment has both positive and negative factors, and the supply - demand balance has limited upward space for iron - water production. The coke main contract is expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The relevant national ministries are promoting the regulation of national crude steel production, and the central bank has cut the deposit - reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing about 1 trillion yuan in long - term liquidity. The personal housing provident fund loan interest rate has been lowered by 0.25 percentage points since May 8th [9]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. Trump and the UK Prime Minister reached a limited bilateral trade agreement, with the UK buying $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft [9]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: Short - term coke supply elasticity is better than that of coking coal. The current iron - water output is 244.35 + 4.23 = 248.58 tons, and the supply - demand is in balance, with limited upward space for iron - water. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 1 yuan/ton, and the demand in the sector is under pressure due to the tariff war, facing seasonal decline in the second and third quarters [9]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Due to the impact of tariffs, the demand in the sector is under pressure, and market confidence is insufficient. The coke main contract should be treated as operating in a weak and volatile manner [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of May 9, the coke futures contract open interest was 53,200 lots, a net increase of 96,300 lots. The 9 - 5 contract month - spread was - 122 yuan/ton, a decrease of 101 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The registered coke warehouse receipts were 1,190 lots, an increase of 300 lots. The futures rebar - coke ratio was 2.09, an increase of 0.08 [13][19]. - **Spot Market**: As of May 9, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port was 1,510 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The coke basis was 32 yuan/ton, an increase of 84 [25]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Industry Production**: In March, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size was 440 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The output of coking coal in March 2025 was 4,161,470 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.23% [30]. - **Coking Plant Situation**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.05%, a decrease of 0.38%. The average daily coke output was 53.50, a decrease of 0.27. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 1 yuan/ton. The average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was 21 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 55 yuan/ton, and the average loss of secondary coke in Inner Mongolia was 48 yuan/ton [34]. - **Downstream Situation**: As of May 9, the average daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 245.64 tons, an increase of 0.22 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 11.14 tons compared to the same period last year. As of May 1, 2025, the total coke inventory was 9.6949 million tons, a decrease of 16,600 tons compared to the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 21.29% [38]. - **Inventory Structure**: As of May 9, the coke inventory of 18 ports was 2.8368 million tons, a decrease of 71,100 tons. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 671,030 tons, a decrease of 4,190 tons, and the available days of coke were 12.1 days, a decrease of 0.07 days [43]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Export and Import**: From January to March 2025, the coke export volume was 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.50%. In April 2025, China exported 1.0462 million tons of steel, and from January to April, the cumulative steel export volume was 3.7891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.20% [48]. - **Real Estate**: In March 2025, the price index of second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. As of the week of May 4, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - scale cities was 1.5584 million square meters, a decrease of 9.60% month - on - month and an increase of 48.76% year - on - year. The commercial housing transaction area in first - tier cities was 510,100 square meters, a decrease of 6.18% month - on - month and an increase of 49.63% year - on - year, and in second - tier cities was 776,400 square meters, a decrease of 6.94% month - on - month and an increase of 52.71% year - on - year [51][56].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, the state is promoting national crude steel production control, the central bank has cut the reserve - requirement ratio, and the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate has been lowered. Overseas, the Fed maintained the interest rate, and a limited bilateral trade agreement was reached. The iron - alloy sector is under pressure, with negative production profits and weak steel demand expectations. The cost of electricity in Ningxia has decreased, and the technical trend of the silicon - iron main contract is bearish. It is recommended to treat the silicon - iron main contract as oscillating [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The state is promoting crude steel production control, the central bank cut the reserve - requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity, and the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate was cut by 0.25 percentage points. Overseas, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%, and a limited bilateral trade agreement was reached, with the UK buying $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft [6]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The iron - alloy sector is under pressure, with negative production profits. The profit in Inner Mongolia is - 230 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 110 yuan/ton. Steel demand expectations are generally weak. Follow - up tariff conflicts may see new progress after the Sino - US talks [6]. - **Cost Aspect**: The electricity cost in Ningxia decreased by 1 cent, and the semi - coke price remained stable [6]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the silicon - iron main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Treat the silicon - iron main contract as oscillating due to the decrease in supply and pressure on sector demand [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of May 9, the silicon - iron futures contract open interest was 473,800 lots, a week - on - week increase of 85,100 lots; the monthly spread was - 50, a week - on - week decrease of 126. The number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts was 18,908, an increase of 1,804. The spot price in Ningxia was 5,460 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 140 yuan/ton [12][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of May 9, the silicon - iron basis was - 82 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 24 [21]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Industry**: The silicon - iron operating rate increased, while demand decreased. The weekly demand for silicon - iron in five major steel types was 20,336.3 tons, a 2.00% decrease from last week. The national operating rate of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises was 32.53%, an increase of 1.79%. The daily output was 14,700 tons, an increase of 550 tons. The inventory of 60 independent silicon - iron enterprises decreased by 11.83% to 73,700 tons [27][30]. - **Upstream**: As of May 6, the electricity price in Ningxia was 0.41 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kWh, and in Inner Mongolia, it remained at 0.42 yuan/kWh. As of May 8, the semi - coke price remained at 665 yuan/ton. The production cost in Ningxia was 5,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia, it remained at 5,680 yuan/ton. The production profit in Ningxia was - 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was - 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [34][39]. - **Downstream**: As of May 9, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4564 million tons, an increase of 0.0022 million tons from last week and 0.1114 million tons from last year. From January to March 2025, the total silicon - iron export volume was 90,500 tons, a 18.70% decrease from the same period last year. The silicon - iron tender price was 5,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton compared to March [44].

Group 1: Silicon Iron Market Analysis - The cost of silicon stone in Qinghai and Ningxia ranges from 180 to 230 CNY/ton, while the price of Shenfu Lan charcoal is between 610 and 670 CNY/ton[2] - The current cash price for 72 silicon iron is reported at 5400-5500 CNY/ton, and for 75 silicon iron, it is 5950-6050 CNY/ton[2] - Silicon iron warehouse receipts increased by 19 to 17881 receipts, with a total forecast of 96480 tons, up by 2600 tons[2] Group 2: Market Trends and Technical Analysis - The Wenhua Commodity Index closed up 0.42% at 158.08, with a net outflow of 61.987 billion CNY[2] - The black series showed mixed results, with SF2506 closing at 5430, up 0.04%, and a net outflow of 210 million CNY[2] - The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with a focus on buying on the rise rather than on the fall[4] Group 3: Manganese Silicon Market Insights - Manganese ore prices are fluctuating, with semi-carbonate at Tianjin Port priced at 32-33 CNY/ton, and South African high-grade at 30.5-31 CNY/ton[7] - Manganese silicon current cash prices are between 5500-5600 CNY/ton, with a notable point price transaction at 5350 CNY/ton[7] - Manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 1405 to 123166 receipts, indicating a clear trend of inventory reduction[7] Group 4: Macro Economic Factors - The People's Bank of China has lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and reduced policy interest rates by 0.1 percentage points[12] - The logistics industry’s prosperity index for April was reported at 51.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[12] - The total manganese ore inventory in China decreased by 26.39 million tons, with significant reductions at various ports[13]