数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/5/7 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 908.00 | -3.50↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1507.00 | +5.00↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 400381.00 | ...

宏源期货煤焦日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/5/7 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基美 | | | | 昨日 | | 刷日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | ■日 | 涨跌 | | 12601 | 90955 | 1576.0 | -25,5 | JM2601 | 959.5 | 980.0 | -20,5 | 101 查会 | -61.5 | -87.0 | 25.5 | | J2505 | 1470.5 | 1601.0 | -130.5 | JM2505 | 880.0 | 888.0 | -8.0 | 105基差 | 18.5 | -112.0 | 130 5 | | 12509 | 1505.0 | 1538.0 | -36.0 | 80952WIE | 911.5 | 930.5 | -19.0 | 100 变云 | -13.0 | -49.0 | 36.0 ...

民生证券研报指出，特朗普承认对华145%关税确实很高，协议达成后美对华关税将大幅下降，但不会 降至零，关税政策仍有反复。4月25日，中共中央召开政治局会议，会议指出，面对外部冲击影响加 大，要充分备足预案，强化政策取向一致性，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定 性，后续或将推出相应政策对冲外部关税政策影响。长期来看，粗钢仍有产量调控预期，原料端铁矿、 焦煤供给趋于宽松，钢企盈利能力有望修复。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 盘面上，2025年4月28日早盘，钢铁板块逆势走强，三钢闽光、首钢股份、宝钢股份、新钢股份、太钢 不锈涨超5%。 产品方面，钢铁LOF(A：502023，C：012810，I：024184)强势涨超2%。该产品紧密跟踪国证钢铁行业 指数，选取黑色金属行业中规模和流动性突出的上市公司证券作为样本，旨在反映该行业整体收益表 现，为投资者提供细分行业的指数化投资工具。 产业数据方面，上周钢材价格上涨。截至4月25日，上海20mmHRB400材质螺纹价格为3200元/吨，较前 一周升70元/吨。高线8.0mm价格为3410元/吨，较前一周升80 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" for the steel industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [5]. Core Views - The steel industry shows resilience in demand, with steel prices experiencing a slight upward trend. The report highlights that the prices for five major steel products as of April 25 are as follows: rebar at 3,323 CNY/ton (+1.34%), wire rod at 3,645 CNY/ton (+1.02%), hot-rolled coil at 3,288 CNY/ton (+0.80%), cold-rolled coil at 3,812 CNY/ton (-1.54%), and medium plate at 3,529 CNY/ton (+0.41%) [2][3]. - The report notes a significant increase in iron water production, which rose by 4.23 million tons week-on-week, nearing historical highs. However, the increase in production does not correspond to a significant rise in finished steel supply, indicating a tight supply situation [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a notable improvement in the performance of listed steel companies, with most reporting improved quarterly profits due to lower raw material prices and effective cost control measures [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The report indicates that the steel market is currently experiencing a supply increase while demand is slightly declining, yet steel prices are generally on the rise. This suggests that steel prices may have reached a bottom, supported by resilient demand [2][3]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The total production of five major steel products reached 8.7584 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 31,300 tons. The average daily iron water production from 247 steel companies was 2.4435 million tons, also showing a week-on-week increase [2][3]. (b) Consumption of Five Major Steel Products - The total consumption of the five major steel products was 9.2625 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 223,900 tons. Notably, rebar and wire rod consumption saw significant declines [2][3]. (c) Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory decreased by 504,100 tons week-on-week, with social inventory down by 414,000 tons to 1,083,430 tons, and steel mill inventory down by 90,100 tons to 450,840 tons [2][3]. (d) Profitability - As of April 25, 54.98% of the sampled steel companies were profitable, an increase of 1.3 percentage points week-on-week. The average iron water cost for 114 steel mills was reported at 2,418 CNY/ton, showing a slight increase [2][3]. 3. Stock Market Performance - The steel index reported a weekly increase of 1.65%, closing at 2,147.63 points, outperforming the broader market index which rose by 1.15% [4]. The overall price-to-book ratio for the steel sector is at 0.96, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [4]. 4. Policy and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies aimed at resolving structural issues in the steel industry, which are expected to support price increases and improve profitability in the sector [10]. The focus on reducing low-efficiency production capacity and enhancing high-end production capabilities is highlighted as a key strategy moving forward [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel industry, including Xining Special Steel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, and Baosteel [6][9]. Core Insights - The steel industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic policies aimed at stimulating demand and reducing supply, with a focus on high-quality development [2][4]. - The report highlights an increase in daily molten iron production and a decrease in inventory levels, indicating a tightening supply situation [3][12]. - The demand for steel products has shown signs of recovery, although there are fluctuations in specific product categories [39][47]. - The report emphasizes the importance of structural changes in the economy, moving from investment-driven growth to consumption-driven growth [2][4]. Supply Analysis - Daily molten iron production increased by 4.4 thousand tons to 244.4 thousand tons, with a rise in the utilization rate of blast furnaces to 91.6%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous week [3][18]. - Total steel inventory decreased by 3.2%, with significant reductions in both social and factory inventories [24][25]. - The report notes that the government is implementing policies to control crude steel production, which is expected to lead to a reduction in supply and support price stability [4][13]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 2.4% week-on-week, with rebar consumption showing a notable decline [39][47]. - The average weekly transaction volume for construction steel increased by 11.6%, indicating some recovery in demand [40][39]. Price and Profitability - Steel prices have shown strength, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index rising by 0.7% week-on-week [66]. - The report indicates that the gross profit margins for steel products are improving, particularly for long-process steel [66][68]. - The report highlights that the current market conditions may lead to a stronger performance in steel prices in the near term [66][67]. Key Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Hualing Steel (Buy) - Nanjing Steel (Buy) - Baosteel (Buy) - Xining Special Steel (Buy) - Jiuli Special Materials (Buy) - New Steel (Buy) - Changbao Steel (Buy) - Yongjin Steel (Buy) [9].

钢铁 3 月数据跟踪：粗钢产量大增，消费端需求持续回升 根据 Wind 数据，2025 年 3 月钢铁行业及前期海关进出口数据汇总如 下： 粗钢产量大增，消费有望持续发力。3 月粗钢日均产量同比增长 5.2%， 环比增长 6.3%，钢厂生产积极性显著恢复，近期金融属性不足的黑色金 属价格偏弱运行，然而部分原燃料价格下跌，持续推动钢企利润改善，截 止 4 月 11 日当周钢厂盈利比例为 53.7%。2024 年 8 月以来政府类债券 的发行显著提速，2025 年 3 月地方债净融资额达 8792 亿，处于高位水 平，国债净融资额为 5964 亿元，环比继续增长，预计后续政府投资规模 有望继续增加，政府消费支出或提速。统计局数据显示 2025 年 3 月规模 以上工业增加值同比实际增长 7.7%，环比增长 0.44%，社会消费品零售 总额同比增长 5.9%；3 月份企业生产经营活动加快，制造业采购经理指 数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合 PMI 产出指数分别为 50.5%、50.8%和 51.4%，比上月上升 0.3、0.4 和 0.3 个百分点；一季度与钢需相关的制造 业销量高增，挖掘机销售同比增 22.8%，汽 ...