Core Viewpoints - The economic growth target for this year is set at around 5%, consistent with last year's target, but reflects a more conservative outlook due to increasingly complex external conditions [1][4] - The fiscal deficit is projected to increase to 4%, surpassing the previous threshold of 3%, indicating a stronger push for fiscal stimulus [2][6] - The focus on expanding domestic demand has been elevated as a primary task, with significant emphasis on promoting consumption through various measures [3][10] Economic Growth Targets - The government has set the economic growth target at approximately 5%, maintaining the same level as last year, but with a more cautious approach due to external challenges [1][4] - The consumer price index target has been adjusted to around 2%, down from 3%, reflecting a more realistic assessment while increasing its binding force [1][4] - The urgency to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP has intensified, with a target reduction of 13.5% set in the 14th Five-Year Plan, impacting high-energy-consuming industries like steel and chemicals [1][4] Central Policy Adjustments - The fiscal budget deficit is set at 4%, with a planned scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from last year's budget [2][6] - Local government special bonds are projected to reach 4.4 trillion yuan, a 13% increase from last year, indicating a significant rise in fiscal capacity [2][6] - The monetary policy is characterized as "moderately loose," with potential for timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates [7] Key Focus Areas - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with a focus on enhancing consumption capabilities and promoting supply release [3][10] - The government plans to allocate 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the consumption of new goods through trade-in programs, doubling last year's funding [3][10] - The report emphasizes a higher technological content in industrial policies, with specific support for sectors such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and artificial intelligence [11] Real Estate Regulation - The real estate regulation continues with a strategy of "controlling new supply and managing existing stock," aiming to revitalize the market [12][13] - The report suggests integrating eligible rural migrant workers into the housing security system, which could stimulate demand in the real estate market [13] Support for Childbirth - The introduction of childcare subsidies at the national level acknowledges the effectiveness of local policies and indicates potential increases in central financial support for childbirth [13]

赵伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 摘要 事件： 2025年3月5日，国务院总理李强代表国务院，向十四届全国人大三次会议作政府工作报告。 一、主要经济目标设定更务实，相关指标设计讨论充分 主要经济目标设定更加"务实"，对相关指标设计讨论充分。 2025年经济增长预期目标为5%左右，"既是 稳就业、防风险、惠民生的需要，也有经济增长潜力和有利条件支撑"；报告也提出"实现这些目标很不 容易，必须付出艰苦努力"。基于5%左右的经济增长目标，政策部署更加灵活，报告指出将"根据形势变 化动态调整政策，提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性"，执行层面注重"加强上下联动、横向协 作"。 对可能遇到的困难与挑战，报告表述清醒客观，特别提及关税、内需和执行层面问题。 报告指出"多边贸 易体制受阻，关税壁垒增多"等问题。内部发展方面，报告梳理三大矛盾：需求端"有效需求不足"的结构 性问题，供给端 "部分企业生产经营困难，账款拖欠问题仍较突出"，民生领域"群众就业增收面临压 力"等。同时，报告特别提及"一些地方基层财政困难"，也直指"一些工作协调配合不够，有的政策落地偏 慢 ...

地方政府专项债券发行额度也将扩大，2025年定为4.4万亿元，比上年增加5000亿元。这些资金 重点用于投资建设、土地收储和收购存量商品房、消化地方政府拖欠企业账款等。推动其转化为 中低收入人群可负担住房，以改善房地产市场状况。 在金融政策方面，中国政府计划采取"适度宽松"的货币政策以支持经济增长，表示出在适当时机 下调存款准备金率和政策利率的方针。 中国全国人民代表大会召开（3月5日，目良友树 摄） 中国经济增长目标连续三年维持在"5%左右"。在美国特朗普政府加征关税等不利因素加剧的背景 下，中国政府计划扩大财政支出，以支撑经济增长。将赤字率提升至4.0%左右，高于2024年设 定的3.0%…… 第十四届全国人民代表大会第三次会议于3月5日上午在北京的人民大会堂开幕。国务院总理李强 在政府工作报告中宣布，2025年实际经济增长率目标仍定为"5%左右"，连续三年维持这一水平。 在美国特朗普政府加征关税等不利因素加剧的背景下，中国政府计划扩大财政支出，以支撑经济 增长。为此，将发行5000亿元国债，向国有大型银行注入公共资金，以防范房地产市场长期低迷 带来的金融风险。 李强在报告中表示将实施积极的财政政策，扩大 ...